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gwsgws Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbHHeinrichstr.30 D-49080 OsnabrückTel.: +49 (0)541 40933-25 Fax: +49 (0)541 40933-11Email: [email protected] Internet: www.gws-os.com
A Change in Private Consumption Expenditure and its Consequences for the
Economy ―How Important is the Purchase of Cars?
Presentation at the 17th INFORUM Conference in Jurmala, 7th - 12th September 2009
Britta Stöver
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Change in private consumption expenditure for purchase of vehicles and impact on
Automotive industriesIntermediate demandMacroeconomic variables (GDP, total output, employment, income etc.)
No assessment or valuation of economic policy programmes
1 Aim of the study
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Manufacturing – the 10 most important economic branches in 2007
Source: German Federal Statistical Office and own calculations
2 The significance of vehicles
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The 10 most important individual consumptionpurposes in 2008
Source: Germand Federal Statistical Office and own calculations
2 The significance of vehicles
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Source: Perscheid
2 The significance of vehicles
Well – in thatcase we probably will sell our children!
What do youthink of the introduction of tolls?
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Change in individual consumption?
Source: Germand Federal Statistical Office and own calculations
2 The significance of vehicles
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
number of new-ly registered cars (in thou-sand)
annual percen-tage change of new registrati-ons
[num
ber i
n th
ousa
nd]
[ann
ual p
erce
ntag
e ch
ange
]
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Experience in using this model for simulations and forecasting
Confirmed ability of the model to simulate even detailed scenarios (Eurostat 2008, p.527 ff)
Annually updated
3 The model INFORGE
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
Baseline Scenario
[in b
n Eu
ro]
Individual consumption expenditure for thepurchase of vehicles – baseline and scenario
4 Scenario
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
Baseline Scenario
[in b
n Eu
ro]
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Difference between scenario and baseline forselected macroeconomic variables
5 Results – overall economy
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Effects on automotive industry
5 Results – automotive industry
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Production Gross value added
intermediate demand
Producer price Employed persons
[diff
eren
ce in
term
s of
%]
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Production Gross value added
intermediate demand
Producer price Employed persons
[diff
eren
ce in
term
s of
%]
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Highest positive/negative deviations from thebaseline regarding production
5 Results – other economic branches
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5 Results – employment
Highest positive/negative deviations from thebaseline regarding employment
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Gross salaries and wages per employed person for the year 2006
Annual aggregate w ages34
7428
2555
9585
75
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
[Eur
o]5 Results – income
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Deviation of aggregate wages and disposable income from the baseline
5 Results – income
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Positive and negative deviations from the baseline in terms of bn Euro and absolute numbers
6 Concluding Remarks
gwsgws Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbHHeinrichstr.30 D-49080 OsnabrückTel.: +49 (0)541 40933-25 Fax: +49 (0)541 40933-11Email: [email protected] Internet: www.gws-os.com
Thank you very much for your attention!
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