a broad spectrum look from a distance futurology:
Post on 19-Dec-2015
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A BROAD SPECTRUM LOOK FROM A DISTANCE
FUTUROLOGY:
T I M E
S
P
A
C
ELOCAL
PRESENT
D ISTANT
FUTURE
Most Decisions are concerned
with present day local issues.
Very Few Decisions are concerned with future
times and distantlocations.
HUMAN PERSPECTIVES
My life & times
My children’s life & times(perhaps grand children)
Third generationof children & beyond
in distant nations
THE PROPHETS
A
B
C
D
E
F
Utopias
Dystopias
SomewhereIn
Between
The Old World gives way to a New World thru Apocalyptic Events
THESIS
ANTITHESIS
SYNTHESIS
Scenarios of a desirable futureand the blessing of the gods
Scenarios of an undesirable futureand the curse of the gods
The reality of life somewherebetween the extremes
The First Futurologists used religious paradigms
THE SCIENCE OF FUTUROLOGYThe Goal1. Describe the future2. Explain the future3. Predict the future4. Control the future
Paradigms (Available Resources)1. Multidiscipline Science Observations2. Statistical Interpolation Databases3. Computer Modeling4. Educated Decision Making
The Product
1. There is a Best Possible World— Utopia 2. There is a Worst Possible World— Dystopia3. There is Somewhere in Between— Synthesis
Somewhere in between is the grey zone(the mixing of black and white, the worst & the best)
4. Achievement of priority goals5. Avoidance of worst case scenarios6. A future of our own choosing
A MULTI SCENARIO VISION OF THE FUTURE
THE END PRODUCTTHE END PRODUCT
THE PERSON
1.Childhood2.Young Adult3.Middle Adult4.Mature Adult
The Stages of LifeMorning Twilight
Noon
With each stage is a personIs presented with a task (a challenge).
Aspects of Life1. Health2. Wealth3. Relationships4. Vocation5. Re-Creation
CultureReligion
THE PERSON
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Need1. Physiology2. Safety3. Belonging4. Esteem (Achievement)5. Self Actualization
THE PERSON
The Person as IndividualIndividual MindIndividual BodyIndividual Spirit
The Person’s Support CommunityCommunity MindCommunity BodyCommunity Spirit
The Human CollectiveCollective MindCollective BodyCollective Spirit
Resources for the Challenges of Life
THE KARDASHEV SCALE
Type 0 Geographically Located CivilizationsType I Global Civilization
Planetary Energy Harnessed (c10^16W)
Type II Interplanetary CivilizationSolar Energy Harnessed (c10^26W)
Type III Interstellar CivilizationGalactic Energy Harnessed (c10^36W)
Type IV and beyond Intergalactic CivilizationType VType VIType VII
Where are we going?
Harnessing the Energy of Super-galactic Structures (c10^46W<)
THE CYCLE OF PROGRESS
See Hubbert’s Peak…
CRISIS CRISIS CRISIS
The Malthusian Tension: Moving through Crisis to Paradigm
THE SEQUENCE OF TECHNOLOGY
1. Need2. Invention/Discovery3. Technical Novelty4. Isolated Innovative use5. Social Integration and Reorientation6. Social Resistance7. Social Dependency
The introduction and progress of new technology follows a predictable sequence
RELATIONSHIPS
LOCAL REGIONAL NATIONAL INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND
Personal
Family
Community
Regional
National
International
Global
Beyond
Global
Regional
Local
National
Community
Family***
Human RightsEqual Opportunity
Economic EquitabilityCommunity Empowerment
Human RightsEqual Opportunity
Economic EquitabilityCommunity Empowerment
MARKET SHORTCOMINGS MANAGEMENT
Military-Industrial ComplexLegal-Media-Political ComplexAerospace-Technology ComplexAgribusiness-Subsidy ComplexMonopolistic Drive Complex
MARKET SHORTCOMINGS MANAGEMENT
Military-Industrial ComplexLegal-Media-Political ComplexAerospace-Technology ComplexAgribusiness-Subsidy ComplexMonopolistic Drive Complex
Gov’t representingthe will of the people of, by and for the people
Gov’t representingthe will of the people of, by and for the people
GLOBALIZED ECUMETROPITAN
MOSAIC
GLOBALIZED ECUMETROPITAN
MOSAICSpirit ofService
Religious & Cultural InstUniversities
Religious & Cultural InstUniversities
Socially Responsible BusinessPrivately Owned Enterprise
Publicly Owned CorporationsGlobally Regulated Internat’l Bus
Socially Responsible BusinessPrivately Owned Enterprise
Publicly Owned CorporationsGlobally Regulated Internat’l Bus
THE COMMUNITYA Person’s Place in
the Global Village
AIRAeroplaneRotorwingAeroship
SPACESpace PlaneSuborbital OrbitalLunar Interplanetary
LANDRail—People MoversRoad
OverlandTunneled
SEASurface shipSurface Action Craft Subsurface
EXPRESS LOCAL REG’L NAT’L INTERNAT’L GLOBAL BEYOND(Point to Point)
COMMUNICATIONPOWER DELIVERYTRANSPORTATION
Grids
THE NETWORK
MEGASCALE TRANSPORTING
A Transatlantic Tunnel
AggregateSupply
Over Time
AggregateSupply
Over Time
Aggregate Demand
Over Time
Technology increases aggregate supply tomeet growing demand
Q
U
A
N
T
I
T
Y
T I M E
The Challenge ofLimited Resources
VOCATION
Malthusian Projectionusing Hubbert’s Peak
Can technologyContinue an increase in supply,as rapidly as humans increase demand?
THE CHALLENGE
DetectionDiagnostics
Blood screeningBio-field scanningGene mapping
Biomedical InformationComputer modelingHealth Profiling
TreatmentOutpatientInpatient
HEALTH1
PreventionLife-style
DietExercise
Stress Inflamatories
Infectious Diseases
Accidental Injury
Healthcare ServicesEffectivenessAvailabilityAffordability
The average life expectancy for peoplein the US is 77, in Japan its 83, the world average is 63.
In the US, 80% of all healthcare dollarsare spent on end of life care …
The next greatest percentage is noninfectious, lifestyle illness care…
GREATEST
EFFECT
ON
HEALTH
H E A L T H C A R E S E R V I C E S
HUMAN GENERATIONS
1900 2000 2100 2200
1970 2050
1990 2075
2020 2110
2050 2145
2070 2170
2100 2200+
Life expectancywill Increase
Number of children/personwill decrease
Parent age attime of first child willincrease
Crop product variety expansionGenetic modification
Drought/pest resistantClimate/soil adapting
Weather ModificationLong range weather prediction
Improved MechanizationCrop health monitorsSoil quality sensorsElectronic pest controlRobotics
Enhanced IrrigationWater table mappingDesalination
Aquatic AgricultureOcean farming/managementHydroponics farming
Soil ScienceTop soil manufacturingMicromanaged fertilizationMicromanaged water delivery
Mega Farm districtsSoil ConservationLocal Temp/Humidity enhancementFarming Cooperatives
TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE
TRENDS IN BIOMEDICAL
GeneticNormalcy
Intervention Intervention
Genetic Engineering,at Genotypephenotypelevel…
Bioengineeringfor prosthetics, organ, gland enhancement,physio-automat’n& metabolic replication
Tissue cloningFor grafting, replacement,and transplant,
Improved revival& resuscitation technologies
SurgeryRemote Particle beam & LaserPrecision Directed radiationAutomated Micro managed drug deliver
Nutrition ScienceDiet Fabricat’nOrganicSynthetic
HEALTH2
COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE
Tiered living Sky City
Sky Scrapers
Multi-storied
Ground Level
Underground
Subunderground
Below Subunderground
Wired
Wireless
CITIES1 (wealth & safety)
Tiered living
Sky Cities
Sky Scrapers
Multi-storied
Ground Level
Underground
Subunderground
Below Subunderground
UnderGroundCableOptics
Wireless
Orbital Projection
Aeroship Projection
Laser Projection
COMMUNITY/URBAN ARCHITECTURE
Laser Projection
CITIES2
SKY CITIES
OceanopolisIsland CitiesFloating CitiesSurfaceSubsurface
CITIES3
UrbanGreater UrbanMetropolisMegalopolisEcumenopolisPopulation Grid
WildernessNature Preserve
ResourcesWildlifeCarbon Sink
AgriculturalPark-RecreationUndesignated Mixed
CITIES4
ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS
UNDERSEA HABITATS
AND CITIES
(Re-creation)
1. The Conservative Approacha. Prioritizes stabilityb. Resists changes which may undermines stability
2. The Progressive Approacha. Prioritizes an idealb. Advocates for changes that may lead to ideal
3. Attitudesa. Militants—”Conservative Reactionaries” b. Radicals—”Leftist Liberals” c. Middle of the Roads—”Passionless Jelly Bellies”
SOCIO—POLITICAL AGENDAS
SELF ACTUALIZATION & VALUES CLARIFICATION
REACHING A TYPE 1 CIVILIZATION
* Biomass Fuels Type 0Agricultural Revolution
Functioning Civilization
* Fossil Fuels Type 0.5 Industrial Revolution (coal)
Hyper Industrial (Petroleum, Natural Gas)
* Non Sustainable Alternative Fuels Type 0.7Post Industrial, Service EconomyNuclear Fission FuelsHydro Electric ConversionGeo-Thermal Conversion
* Globally Sustainable Energy Type 1.0Eco-Industrial, Recyclable EconomyNuclear FusionSolar Energy ConversionWind Energy Conversion
Chemical Reaction Based
Non-Chemical Reaction Based,Non-renewable Energy
Waste Free,Renewable Energy
Open Fire, ‘Beast of Burden’
Harnessing the Energy of a Planet
MEGASCALE ENERGY
CLIMATE ENGINEERING
PERMANENT MOON STATIONA transfer point for interplanetary transports
PROJECT CONSTELLATION:
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Population12-15 Billion
& holding
Australian Outback
Saharan Outback
North Am West
Siberian OutbackCentral Asian Outback
W Pacific Habitats
Mega Scaled Terraforming Projects (7)GEN Grid—GTN RailWorld Heritage Preservation Areas (7)Central Desert Energy Zones (4)
Space Ports (11)
Pacific Habitats
THE WORLD1
Suborbital
Synchronous Orbit
Sub-Synchronous Orbit
Halo-Synchronous Orbit
Real Time IntegratedSatellite Constellations
Real Time IntegratedSuborbital LTA Fleets
Lunar Express
Real time synchronizedEarth Systems Watch…
THE WORLD2
REACHING FOR ATYPE 2 CIVILIZATION
ROBONAUTS
Harnessing the Energy of a Star
SPACE ELEVATOR
Present cost to launch = $10,000 / lbDesired cost to launch < $ 1,000 / lb Air Travel cost < $ 200 / lb
Venus
Earth
Mars
Jupiter (61)
Saturn (48)
Uranus (14)
Neptune (28)
Centaur Belt
Kuiper Belt PlutoQuaoarSednaXenaOthers
40 AU’s3.72E+09 mi@25k mph (0.04%c) 160,000 hrs@65m mph (10%c) 61hrs
Alpha Centauri280,645 AU’s
Asteroid Belt
THE SOLAR SYSTEM
Concentration of resources, (e.g. metal content to waste ratio) is >10 to 100 times that of earth. Technology can
make resource extraction from space cost effective.
Why go into space?
Solar Panel Arrayfor Climate ControlEnergy Conversion
MEGASCALE CLIMATE
ENGINEERINGFleet of >100,000 Solar Panels
for Climate Control andEnergy Conversion
REACHING FOR A TYPE 3 CIVILIZATION
Project Orion: Interstellar ProbesSpeed of present orbital (s)= 0.004% cSpeed for interstellar probe= 10.0% c
Harnessing the Energy of a Galaxy
Currently we have the following to invest1. 6,000 Bn Tons of Atmosphere2. 100 Bn km^3 of water3. 150 Mn km^2 of land4. 75,000 Quads of energy (non-renewable)5. 6.5 Bn people
These need to propel us into a future where1. First 100 thousand years was 50 Bn human lives2. Next 100 years will have another 50 Bn human lives3. Average Global calories/day was = 10004. Desired calories/day will be = c 20005. Quads of energy used today = c4126. Quads consumed by 2100 = 1600+7. Total population= c. 12 Bn people
THE CHALLENGE
Science can tell us the what will happen for each scenario we create.It is we who must chose what scenario we wish to pursue…
Current rate of consumptionexceeds Earth System capacity for regeneration
Future rate of consumption isless than or equal toearth System regeneration capacity