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1 9 th Annual Global Transportation Conference Cowen and Company September 7, 2016 Alan H. Shaw Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer

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Page 1: 9th Annual Global Transportation Conference Cowen and Companynscorp.com/content/dam/nscorp/get-to-know-ns/investor-relations/... · 3QTD2016 vs. 2015 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% Year to Date

1

9th Annual Global Transportation Conference

Cowen and CompanySeptember 7, 2016

Alan H. Shaw

Executive Vice President

and Chief Marketing Officer

Page 2: 9th Annual Global Transportation Conference Cowen and Companynscorp.com/content/dam/nscorp/get-to-know-ns/investor-relations/... · 3QTD2016 vs. 2015 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% Year to Date

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor

provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. These statements relate to

future events or Norfolk Southern Corporation’s (NYSE: NSC) (“Norfolk Southern,” “NS” or the “Company”)

future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may

cause the actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements of the Company or its industry to be

materially different from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. In some cases,

forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,”

“estimate,” “plan,” “consider,” “project,” and similar references to the future. The Company has based these

forward-looking statements on management’s current expectations, assumptions, estimates, beliefs and

projections. While the Company believes these expectations, assumptions, estimates, and projections are

reasonable, such forward-looking statements are only predictions and involve known and unknown risks and

uncertainties, many of which involve factors or circumstances that are beyond the Company’s control. These

and other important factors, including those discussed under “Risk Factors” in the Annual Report on Form 10-

K for the year ended December 31, 2015, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on

February 8, 2016, as well as the Company’s subsequent filings with the SEC, may cause our actual results,

performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking

statements. Forward-looking statements are not, and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future

performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be accurate indications of the times at or by which

any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual outcomes and results may differ

materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update or

revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of certain events or

otherwise, unless otherwise required by applicable securities law.

2

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Norfolk Southern’s Footprint

3

Extensive Network Reach Supports Future Growth

~20,000

Route Miles of Track

22 States

Served by Network

40+ Ports

240+ Short Lines

Revenue Mix(trailing 12-months 6/30)

Merchandise62%

Intermodal22%

Coal16%

Note: (1) Over 550 miles

Norfolk Southern’s network

interfaces with:

More than 50% of the US

population, manufacturing activity,

and energy consumption

Estimated 50M+ long-haul(1) truck

shipments in our service area

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Focus on Service and Changing Market

Conditions

4

Service Market Conditions

High service levels enhance growth and

further leverage our diversified franchise

‒ Truck competitive

‒ Productivity improvement

‒ Asset utilization

‒ Flexible structure for multiple markets

Operating expense reductions

Creating an excellent product our customers

value with a bottom line that generates

shareholder return

Energy environment challenging

‒ Coal

‒ Crude

‒ Frac sand and pipe

Inventory overhang continues to impact

volume

Goals

Control what we can control in the current

environment with a long term focus on:

− Revenue growth

− Expense control

− Asset productivity

Superior network and service provide a strong foundation

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr* 4th Qtr

5 * 3Q16 through 9/2/16

Composite Service Performance

Service levels consistently above prior year

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Speed Dwell

Better ( ) Better ( )

6

Train Speed & Terminal Dwell

* 3Q16 through 9/2/16

Overall velocity continues to operate near record levels

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr* 4th Qtr

MP

H

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr* 4th Qtr

Ho

urs

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First Half HighlightsImproved service supported record OR

% vs. PY

Railway operating

revenues (8%)

Railway operating

expenses 12%

Railway operating ratio 5%

Income from railway

operations 5%

EPS 10%

7

$3,860

$196

$117

$98

$85

$17

$3,381

Net decrease of $479 / 12%

Fuel Depr.Comp

& Benefits2015Materials

& Other 2016Purchased

Svcs & Rents

Expense Improvement ($ in millions)

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Changing Economic Backdrop

8

Indicator2016 Projection as of:

Dec 2015 Apr 2016 Aug 2016

GDP (IHS) +2.7% +2.1% +1.6%

GDP (Wells Fargo) +2.4% +1.7% +1.4%

Housing Starts (millions) 1.23 1.20 1.18

N.A. Vehicle Production (millions) 18.2 18.2 18.2

Industrial Production +1.0% (0.8%) (1.2%)

Real Consumer Spending +3.1% +2.6% +2.7%

TL Dry Van Rates (rev/mi) without FSC +2.0% +1.7% (3.2%)

EIA WTI Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) $50.89 $34.55 $41.16

EIA Henry Hub Nat Gas Price ($/mmBtu) $2.88 $2.18 $2.41

USD Exchange Rate With Major Trading Partners +4.7% +2.4% +0.1%

IndicatorMost recent update available as of:

Dec 2015 Apr 2016 Aug 2016

Inventories/Sales Ratio* (total business, adjusted) 1.39 1.41 1.39

Positive for NS Revenue Negative for NS Revenue

Source: IHS Markit; WardsAuto Forecast; EIA; FTR; Census Bureau

* Inventories/Sales ratio from 2 months prior

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Forecast

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Do

lla

rs p

er

Th

ou

sa

nd

Cu

bic

Fe

et

Henry Hub Spot Price

March

2016

$1.78

July

2016

$2.91

Current Utility Coal Conditions

Source: NOAA July weather map; EIA

Above average temperatures

through South and East in July

Improved coal burn through

July reduced stockpiles

Stronger coal burn due to warmer weather and increased natural gas prices

9

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Export Uncertainty Continues

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Me

tric

To

ns, M

illio

ns

US Coal Exports (excl. Canada)

Metallurgical Thermal

Export pricing improving from 1Q 2016 low but still at levels where US coals struggle to compete

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Export Pricing

Queensland Coking Coal API 2

Source: IHS Markit; McCloskey Coal; Platts10

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0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

3QTD2016 vs. 2015

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Year to Date 2016 vs. 2015

Source: AAR Weekly Traffic Data through Week 35, 2016 (ended September 3, 2016); FTR Data through August

Comparisons with Truck Volumes

NS Intermodal less Triple Crown outpacing growth in long haul truck markets

Short-Haul Truck = <125 miles Long-Haul Truck = 300-549 miles

Medium-Haul Truck = 125-299 miles Super-Long Haul = 550+ miles

11

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Source: Truckstop.com

Though market demand levels are above 2015 in second half, overall market capacity is loose

Dry Van Even

Market

Total Even

Market

Note: 2014 contains 53 weeks of data

Loosening Truck Market Capacity

12

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

Truckstop.com Market Demand Index (MDI)(available loads vs. available trucks)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Tightening Capacityavailable loads>available trucks

Loosening Capacityavailable loads<available trucks

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

7/1

/201

0

11/1

/20

10

3/1

/201

1

7/1

/201

1

11/1

/20

11

3/1

/201

2

7/1

/201

2

11/1

/20

12

3/1

/201

3

7/1

/201

3

11/1

/20

13

3/1

/201

4

7/1

/201

4

11/1

/2014

3/1

/201

5

7/1

/201

5

11/1

/20

15

3/1

/201

6

7/1

/201

6

Class 8 Truck Orders

Class 8 Truck Orders in July

weakest since first quarter

2010

Fleets have until December

2017 to implement certified

ELDs to record hours of

service

Source: FTR; ACT Research

Future capacity tightening will benefit conversion from highway

Expect Tightening in Longer Term

13

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Source: Ports of NY/NJ, Baltimore, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Portland, Seattle; Census Bureau

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

Retail Inventory-Sales Ratio

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD2016*

Loaded Import TEUs

East Coast West Coast

Increased inventory levels hampering imports; East Coast share of imports increasing

Reduction in Imports with Increased Inventory

*YTD through July

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

January February March April May June July

YoY TEU Volume Growth

14

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35% 33% 32% 33% 35% 38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H2016

Intermodal Volume

International Domestic

Increased International volume has negative impact on Intermodal RPU

Intermodal Market Mix Changes

International vs. Domestic:

Smaller boxes

Shipper-owned

equipment

15

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10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

2016

We

ek

ly V

olu

me

Intermodal Merchandise Coal

16

2016 Weekly Volume by Market

Intermodal and Coal volume gains driving sequential improvement

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120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Week

We

ek

ly V

olu

me

2015

2016

17

2016 Weekly Volume

Volume improving in 3Q, though still below 2015 levels

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Current Railway VolumeThird quarter through week 35 (ended September 3, 2016)

18

Total Units (000’s)(5%) Decline in Units 3QTD 2016 vs. 2015

930; 1%

(3,893);(4%)

(3,895); (7%)

(4,151); (6%)

(11,637);(13%)

(12,255); (2%)

(31,022);(16%)

Agriculture

Paper

Automotive

Chemicals

Intermodal

Coal

MetCon

1,336.01,270.1 1,285.2 1,260.2

2015 2016 2015 2016

(5%) (2%)

Including

TCS

Excluding

TCS

Overall volume decline has improved from second quarter

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2016 Volume Outlook

19

1st Half

vs. 2015

2nd Half

vs. 2015

Coal

Intermodal,

Ex. Triple Crown

Merchandise

Full year volume outlook mixed

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2016 Expense Outlook

20

First Half ‘16 vs. ‘15Outlook

vs. PY

Compensation and benefits: $117M

Headcount ~ 2,000 ~2,000 Full Year

Incentive compensation Flat $30M/QTR

Purchased services and rents $98MTriple Crown restructure effect

continues through mid-4Q

Fuel $196M Price and consumption driven

Materials $68M ~ $15M/QTR

Work across departments to adjust expenses and capital but maintain service levels

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Operating Targets

21

Productivity savings at least $200M in 2016

Full year 2016 operating ratio below 70

Capital expenditures of ~ $1.9B in 2016

Clear path to achieve an operating ratio

below 65 by 2020, with focus on:

− Managing headcount

− Increasing locomotive productivity

− Improving fuel efficiency

− Network rationalization

Key Operating Ratio Targets

71.7 (1)

< 70

< 65

2015 2016E 2020E

1Adjusted for Triple Crown restructuring and Roanoke relocation. Please see non-GAAP reconciliation posted on our website.

Committed to meet strategic plan targets to deliver shareholder value

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22

Thank You