9th annual global transportation conference cowen and...
TRANSCRIPT
1
9th Annual Global Transportation Conference
Cowen and CompanySeptember 7, 2016
Alan H. Shaw
Executive Vice President
and Chief Marketing Officer
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor
provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. These statements relate to
future events or Norfolk Southern Corporation’s (NYSE: NSC) (“Norfolk Southern,” “NS” or the “Company”)
future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may
cause the actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements of the Company or its industry to be
materially different from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. In some cases,
forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,”
“estimate,” “plan,” “consider,” “project,” and similar references to the future. The Company has based these
forward-looking statements on management’s current expectations, assumptions, estimates, beliefs and
projections. While the Company believes these expectations, assumptions, estimates, and projections are
reasonable, such forward-looking statements are only predictions and involve known and unknown risks and
uncertainties, many of which involve factors or circumstances that are beyond the Company’s control. These
and other important factors, including those discussed under “Risk Factors” in the Annual Report on Form 10-
K for the year ended December 31, 2015, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on
February 8, 2016, as well as the Company’s subsequent filings with the SEC, may cause our actual results,
performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements are not, and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future
performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be accurate indications of the times at or by which
any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual outcomes and results may differ
materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update or
revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of certain events or
otherwise, unless otherwise required by applicable securities law.
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Norfolk Southern’s Footprint
3
Extensive Network Reach Supports Future Growth
~20,000
Route Miles of Track
22 States
Served by Network
40+ Ports
240+ Short Lines
Revenue Mix(trailing 12-months 6/30)
Merchandise62%
Intermodal22%
Coal16%
Note: (1) Over 550 miles
Norfolk Southern’s network
interfaces with:
More than 50% of the US
population, manufacturing activity,
and energy consumption
Estimated 50M+ long-haul(1) truck
shipments in our service area
Focus on Service and Changing Market
Conditions
4
Service Market Conditions
High service levels enhance growth and
further leverage our diversified franchise
‒ Truck competitive
‒ Productivity improvement
‒ Asset utilization
‒ Flexible structure for multiple markets
Operating expense reductions
Creating an excellent product our customers
value with a bottom line that generates
shareholder return
Energy environment challenging
‒ Coal
‒ Crude
‒ Frac sand and pipe
Inventory overhang continues to impact
volume
Goals
Control what we can control in the current
environment with a long term focus on:
− Revenue growth
− Expense control
− Asset productivity
Superior network and service provide a strong foundation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr* 4th Qtr
5 * 3Q16 through 9/2/16
Composite Service Performance
Service levels consistently above prior year
Speed Dwell
Better ( ) Better ( )
6
Train Speed & Terminal Dwell
* 3Q16 through 9/2/16
Overall velocity continues to operate near record levels
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr* 4th Qtr
MP
H
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr* 4th Qtr
Ho
urs
First Half HighlightsImproved service supported record OR
% vs. PY
Railway operating
revenues (8%)
Railway operating
expenses 12%
Railway operating ratio 5%
Income from railway
operations 5%
EPS 10%
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$3,860
$196
$117
$98
$85
$17
$3,381
Net decrease of $479 / 12%
Fuel Depr.Comp
& Benefits2015Materials
& Other 2016Purchased
Svcs & Rents
Expense Improvement ($ in millions)
Changing Economic Backdrop
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Indicator2016 Projection as of:
Dec 2015 Apr 2016 Aug 2016
GDP (IHS) +2.7% +2.1% +1.6%
GDP (Wells Fargo) +2.4% +1.7% +1.4%
Housing Starts (millions) 1.23 1.20 1.18
N.A. Vehicle Production (millions) 18.2 18.2 18.2
Industrial Production +1.0% (0.8%) (1.2%)
Real Consumer Spending +3.1% +2.6% +2.7%
TL Dry Van Rates (rev/mi) without FSC +2.0% +1.7% (3.2%)
EIA WTI Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) $50.89 $34.55 $41.16
EIA Henry Hub Nat Gas Price ($/mmBtu) $2.88 $2.18 $2.41
USD Exchange Rate With Major Trading Partners +4.7% +2.4% +0.1%
IndicatorMost recent update available as of:
Dec 2015 Apr 2016 Aug 2016
Inventories/Sales Ratio* (total business, adjusted) 1.39 1.41 1.39
Positive for NS Revenue Negative for NS Revenue
Source: IHS Markit; WardsAuto Forecast; EIA; FTR; Census Bureau
* Inventories/Sales ratio from 2 months prior
Forecast
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Do
lla
rs p
er
Th
ou
sa
nd
Cu
bic
Fe
et
Henry Hub Spot Price
March
2016
$1.78
July
2016
$2.91
Current Utility Coal Conditions
Source: NOAA July weather map; EIA
Above average temperatures
through South and East in July
Improved coal burn through
July reduced stockpiles
Stronger coal burn due to warmer weather and increased natural gas prices
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Export Uncertainty Continues
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Me
tric
To
ns, M
illio
ns
US Coal Exports (excl. Canada)
Metallurgical Thermal
Export pricing improving from 1Q 2016 low but still at levels where US coals struggle to compete
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Export Pricing
Queensland Coking Coal API 2
Source: IHS Markit; McCloskey Coal; Platts10
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3QTD2016 vs. 2015
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Year to Date 2016 vs. 2015
Source: AAR Weekly Traffic Data through Week 35, 2016 (ended September 3, 2016); FTR Data through August
Comparisons with Truck Volumes
NS Intermodal less Triple Crown outpacing growth in long haul truck markets
Short-Haul Truck = <125 miles Long-Haul Truck = 300-549 miles
Medium-Haul Truck = 125-299 miles Super-Long Haul = 550+ miles
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Source: Truckstop.com
Though market demand levels are above 2015 in second half, overall market capacity is loose
Dry Van Even
Market
Total Even
Market
Note: 2014 contains 53 weeks of data
Loosening Truck Market Capacity
12
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
Truckstop.com Market Demand Index (MDI)(available loads vs. available trucks)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Tightening Capacityavailable loads>available trucks
Loosening Capacityavailable loads<available trucks
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
7/1
/201
0
11/1
/20
10
3/1
/201
1
7/1
/201
1
11/1
/20
11
3/1
/201
2
7/1
/201
2
11/1
/20
12
3/1
/201
3
7/1
/201
3
11/1
/20
13
3/1
/201
4
7/1
/201
4
11/1
/2014
3/1
/201
5
7/1
/201
5
11/1
/20
15
3/1
/201
6
7/1
/201
6
Class 8 Truck Orders
Class 8 Truck Orders in July
weakest since first quarter
2010
Fleets have until December
2017 to implement certified
ELDs to record hours of
service
Source: FTR; ACT Research
Future capacity tightening will benefit conversion from highway
Expect Tightening in Longer Term
13
Source: Ports of NY/NJ, Baltimore, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Portland, Seattle; Census Bureau
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
Retail Inventory-Sales Ratio
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD2016*
Loaded Import TEUs
East Coast West Coast
Increased inventory levels hampering imports; East Coast share of imports increasing
Reduction in Imports with Increased Inventory
*YTD through July
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
January February March April May June July
YoY TEU Volume Growth
14
35% 33% 32% 33% 35% 38%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H2016
Intermodal Volume
International Domestic
Increased International volume has negative impact on Intermodal RPU
Intermodal Market Mix Changes
International vs. Domestic:
Smaller boxes
Shipper-owned
equipment
15
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
2016
We
ek
ly V
olu
me
Intermodal Merchandise Coal
16
2016 Weekly Volume by Market
Intermodal and Coal volume gains driving sequential improvement
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Week
We
ek
ly V
olu
me
2015
2016
17
2016 Weekly Volume
Volume improving in 3Q, though still below 2015 levels
Current Railway VolumeThird quarter through week 35 (ended September 3, 2016)
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Total Units (000’s)(5%) Decline in Units 3QTD 2016 vs. 2015
930; 1%
(3,893);(4%)
(3,895); (7%)
(4,151); (6%)
(11,637);(13%)
(12,255); (2%)
(31,022);(16%)
Agriculture
Paper
Automotive
Chemicals
Intermodal
Coal
MetCon
1,336.01,270.1 1,285.2 1,260.2
2015 2016 2015 2016
(5%) (2%)
Including
TCS
Excluding
TCS
Overall volume decline has improved from second quarter
2016 Volume Outlook
19
1st Half
vs. 2015
2nd Half
vs. 2015
Coal
Intermodal,
Ex. Triple Crown
Merchandise
Full year volume outlook mixed
2016 Expense Outlook
20
First Half ‘16 vs. ‘15Outlook
vs. PY
Compensation and benefits: $117M
Headcount ~ 2,000 ~2,000 Full Year
Incentive compensation Flat $30M/QTR
Purchased services and rents $98MTriple Crown restructure effect
continues through mid-4Q
Fuel $196M Price and consumption driven
Materials $68M ~ $15M/QTR
Work across departments to adjust expenses and capital but maintain service levels
Operating Targets
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Productivity savings at least $200M in 2016
Full year 2016 operating ratio below 70
Capital expenditures of ~ $1.9B in 2016
Clear path to achieve an operating ratio
below 65 by 2020, with focus on:
− Managing headcount
− Increasing locomotive productivity
− Improving fuel efficiency
− Network rationalization
Key Operating Ratio Targets
71.7 (1)
< 70
< 65
2015 2016E 2020E
1Adjusted for Triple Crown restructuring and Roanoke relocation. Please see non-GAAP reconciliation posted on our website.
Committed to meet strategic plan targets to deliver shareholder value
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Thank You