9:45 markit manufacturing 56.3 12/16 55.8 56.5 0.7 0.18 c ... › uploads › 2021 › 01 ›...
TRANSCRIPT
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Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P
10:00 ISM Manufacturing 56.5 12/1 -0.5 1.13
All Day Total Vehicle Sales 15.65 mln 12/1 -0.55 1.13
Last Report
Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst
9:45 Markit Manufacturing 56.3 12/16 55.8 56.5 0.7 0.18 C Disc Util
10:00 Construction Spending 1.0 12/1 0.8 1.3 0.5 1.13 Tel Svcs Indu
10:00 Fed's Evans Speaks About Economy and Fed Policy
10:00 Fed's Bostic Speaks on Economy
12:15 Fed's Mester Speals at AEA Meeting
Last Report
Upgrades
Ticker Firm From To
ALGN Evercore Inline Outperf
GS Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt
HIG JP Morgan Neutral Overwgt
MS Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt
NWL Jefferies Hold Buy
T Ray James Mkt Perf Outperf
Downgrades
Ticker Firm From To
AIG Wells Fargo Overwgt Mkt Wgt
BA Bernstein Mkt Perf Underperf
BLL Baird Outperf Neutral
KO RBC Capital Outperf Mkt Perf
PGR Wells Fargo Mkt Wgt Underwgt
SWK B of A Neutral Underperf
Initiations/Reiterations
Ticker Firm Action Rating
ABNB B of A Initiated Neutral
ABNB Goldman Initiated Neutral
ABNB M Stanley Initiated Outperf
AI B of A Initiated Neutral
AI JP Morgan Initiated Underwgt
DASH Goldman Initiated Neutral
- US Futures Pick Up 2021 Right Where 2020 Left Off.
- Euro Area Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace in 2.5 Years.
Trading Up ($):
TSLA (16.67), MSTR (16.45), AMZN (14.07), FLIR (9.52), ROKU (9.48), GS (4.29)
Trading Down ($):
QS (-11.45), AI (-3.75), NFLX (-2.85), CALA (-2.79), BA (-2.24), GNW (-1.07)-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
ange
Asia Opens
Europe Opens
Today’s Events
Stock Specific News of Note
Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading
Tomorrow
Overnight Trading
Analyst Actions
Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model
© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
Earnings Reports
Economic Indicators & Events
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Ticker News
AVGO Barron's says stock offers an attractive blend of growth and value in the chip space.
BAC Barron's says stock is cheap versus the market and its historical valuation.
CVS Barron's says company's role in distributing vaccine will increase customer base.
DAL CEO sees positive cashflow by the spring.
DIS Barron's sees possible upside in theme parks performance in 2021.
FLIR Will be acquired by TDY for $56 per share in cash and stock.
GOOGL CNBC reports that employees of company are looking to form a union.
HLF Carl Icahn sells half his stake in company and gives up board seats.
INO Announces partnership to commercialize vaccine in China.
JWN Positive Barron's article cites company's shift to online and decreased competition.
KO Barron's highlights as an attractive re-opening stock.
MGLN Will be acquired by CNC for $95 per share in cash.
NIO Announces 121% increase in y/y deliveries in December.
ROKU WSJ reports that company in talks to acquire Quibi content.
SYY Barron's sees stock benefitting from reopening of restaurants and hotels.
TDY Sees Q4 EPS and sales above consensus forecasts; will acquire FLIR.
TSLA Q4 deliveries came in just shy of 500K target.
NYSE delists CHU , CHA , and CHL due to Chinese government ties.
Bearish Bullish
Category One Week Two Weeks One Month
Sentiment 0.10 0.19 0.64
Technicals 0.06 0.14 0.77
Fundamental 0.15 0.34 0.57
Overall 0.10 0.24 0.60
Average (all days) 0.15 0.30 0.61
Expected S&P 500 Return (%)
Neutral
Index Changes
Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.
SGH 1/5/20 PM 0.70 291
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0
Estimate
15:45 Fed's Evans Discusses Fed Actions During Pandemic
15:45 Fed's Williams Discusses Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Citi TMT Conference
Goldman Health Care Conference
JPM 0.90 BRX 0.22
CMCSA 0.23
Conferences & Meetings
Dividends & Splits
ENPH Will replace TIF in the S&P 500 effective 1/7.
CPRI Will replace ENPH in the S&P 400 effective 1/7.
CELH Will replace CPRI in the S&P 600 effective 1/7.
BRKS Will replace WPX in the S&P 400 effective 1/7.
ELF Will replace BRKS in the S&P 600 effective 1/7.
i -0.7 %
h 1.1
h 1.2
h 2.6
Oil 48.22 i -$0.3
Gold 1935.3 h $40.2
$/Euro 0.813 i -0.01
$/Yen 102.94 i -0.3
Bitcoin 30,989 h 1742
10-Yr 0.93 h 0.02
Japan
China
Germany
UK
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-
Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago
$/Euro OS OS
$/Yen OS OS
2-Year OB OB
10-Year N N
Gold N N
Silver OB OB
Copper N OB
Crude Oil OB OB
Heating Oil OB OB
Gasoline OB OB
Natural Gas N N
OS N OB
Ticker Price
HD 265.62 -1.05 0.19 48.0
Standard Deviations
Below 50-Day Avg
Avg % Return
(One Week)
Percent of
Time Positive
Ticker Price
NRG 37.55 3.07 -0.53 44.2
Standard Deviations
Above 50-Day Avg
Avg % Return
(One Week)
Percent of
Time Positive
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
Bonds Outperforming Stocks
Stocks Outperforming Bonds
Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up
GCI 15.9 26 0.4 42.3 -1.7 46.2
WDC 11.8 3 6.5 66.7 10.9 100.0
CEIX 6.3 57 0.9 49.1 -2.6 47.4
CTB 6.0 30 0.6 56.7 1.0 60.0
GNW -8.3 46 2.4 63.0 2.7 60.9
BRKS -8.0 34 0.8 61.8 2.1 58.8
M -6.5 51 -0.9 49.0 -0.5 49.0
STMP -5.9 33 1.7 57.6 1.5 54.5
Average Return (%)
Next Day Next Week
Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago
S&P 500 OB OB
Cons Discret. OB N
Cons Staples OB N
Energy N N
Financials OB OB
Health Care OB N
Industrials N N
Materials OB N
Technology OB OB
Comm. Svcs OB N
Utilities N OS
OS N OB
S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers
Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds
S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors
Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities
S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall
S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise
Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
Extreme Overbought
Overbought
Oversold
Extreme Oversold
2.6
40.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20
Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.
OBOS
Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 4.8 % 3.7 %10-Day A/D Line h 395 -278# of Overbought Stocks h 201 180# of Oversold Stocks i 13 41
P/E Ratio Trailing h 29.90 29.45 Forward h 27.05 26.63
Dividend Yield i 1.59 % 1.60 %
Net Earnings Revisions 21.5 % 21.5 %
Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield 0 418 418Corporate Bonds 0 107 107
Current One Week Ago
© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
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BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months
BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
1200
1220
1240
7/7 8/4 9/1 9/29 10/27 11/24 12/22
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
1200
1220
1240
7/7 8/4 9/1 9/29 10/27 11/24 12/22
50-DMA: 1143
200-DMA: 1191
1116
1118
1120
1122
1124
1126
1128
1130
1132
1134
1136
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
1120
Gold Future: Last Six Months
Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days
1550
1650
1750
1850
1950
2050
2150
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
1550
1650
1750
1850
1950
2050
2150
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
200-DMA: 1836
50-DMA: 1876
1905
S&P 500: Last Six Months
S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days
2900
3025
3150
3275
3400
3525
3650
3775
3900
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
2900
3025
3150
3275
3400
3525
3650
3775
3900
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
3620
3640
3660
3680
3700
3720
3740
3760
3780
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
200-DMA: 3235
50-DMA: 3585
3756
Russell 2000: Last Six Months
Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
200-DMA: 1512
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
50-DMA: 1803
1975
Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months
Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days
9300
9800
10300
10800
11300
11800
12300
12800
13300
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
9300
9800
10300
10800
11300
11800
12300
12800
13300
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
50-DMA: 12079
200-DMA: 10518
12200
12300
12400
12500
12600
12700
12800
12900
13000
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
12888
Oil Future: Last Six Months
Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
200-DMA: 37
45.5
46.0
46.5
47.0
47.5
48.0
48.5
49.0
49.5
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
50-DMA: 43
48.42
© Copyright 2021, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
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DJ Transports: Last Six Months
DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days
8300
8800
9300
9800
10300
10800
11300
11800
12300
12800
13300
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
8300
8800
9300
9800
10300
10800
11300
11800
12300
12800
13300
7/2 7/31 8/28 9/28 10/26 11/23 12/22
200-DMA: 10272
12250
12350
12450
12550
12650
12750
12850
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
50-DMA: 12201
12507
Long Bond Future: Last Six Months
Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days
170
172
174
176
178
180
182
184
7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29 11/27 12/28
170
172
174
176
178
180
182
184
7/8 8/5 9/2 10/1 10/29 11/27 12/28
200-DMA: 177
171.5
172.0
172.5
173.0
173.5
174.0
174.5
12/10 12/14 12/16 12/18 12/22 12/24 12/29 12/31
50-DMA: 173
172.97
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4
Morning Commentary Overview: The dollar is at new multi-year lows, commodities are green across the board, US stocks are
set to gap up over half a percent with small caps outperforming, and the US yield curve is bear-
steepening into 2021. Global Economic Scorecard
Georgia Votes: Tomorrow Georgians will return to the polls after no candidate from either the special
Senate election or regularly scheduled election to Senate was capable of getting 50% of the vote. After
polls underestimated Trump voters for a second cycle running, there’s an understandable skepticism
that pollsters are presenting accurate pictures of the electorate, and some handicapping of margins
reported in polling for the Senate elections tomorrow are justified. That said, a number of polls have
shown both Warnock (Democrat) and Ossoff (Democrat) leading their incumbent opponents Loeffler
(Republican) and Perdue (Republican). Early vote turnout by party has been more favorable for Demo-
crats than the November general was including higher participation by black voters, and the path to
victory for Republicans in both races requires robust election day turnout from the Republican firewall
in North Georgia. The race will be close, but betting markets have flipped in recent days to favoring
Democrats: Ossoff is priced at 54% by PredictIt bettors while Warnock is priced at 62%. It’s unclear
whether the President’s weekend call with the Georgia Secretary of State (leaked widely to media and
gathering lots of headlines) will have a major impact on election day turnout, but he also has a rally
scheduled for today in the state.
APAC Markets: To close the weekend in the US and start the week in China, there were reports that
billionaire Alibaba (BABA) chairman Jack Ma had gone missing after a tumultuous few months that
included the cancellation of BABA’s Ant Financial unit IPO and new regulations on that company after
Ma criticized the CCP. Ma hasn’t been seen publicly since the IPO was pulled, including missing taping
of an African television show he regularly appears on. BABA was down 2% in Hong Kong trading versus
1% gains for the CSI 300 onshore and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong. Other regional equities were mixed,
with Japan lower but >1% gains for Australia, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore. The KOSPI has
now doubled (102%) versus closing lows on March 18th. Local FX also surged versus the dollar, with all
currencies higher and a 1.1% rally from IDR to lead the region, while iron ore prices surged2.1% to start
the year.
Europe Markets: European equities are on an absolute tear to start the new year with the STOXX 600
up 1.5% and >3.5% days for Resources and Travel & Leisure. Three other groups are up over 2.3%, and
all but six groups are up over 1.2%. An MGM Resorts (MGM) offer to buy Ladbrokes and PartyPoker
parent Entain (ADR GMVHY) has those shares up an index-best 30%, while miners Fresnillo (ADR
FNLPF), Glencore (ADR GLNCY), and Polymetal (ADR POYFF) are among the best-performers as well. At
the country level, the UK’s 2.6% gain is the best in the region, while Italy lags up 0.9%. Generally strong
PMI data (more on the next page) has not moved European rates much, and indeed EUR curves are
showing a flattening bias overall. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs in EUR interest rate swaps
and German bunds is clear and well-established since March. Credit markets are generally tighter in
spread but EUR cash credit is outperforming CDS this morning. EURUSD is starting the year up 0.7% to
what would be a new 52-week closing high.
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accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
5
Markit Manufacturing PMIs: Markit reported the lion’s share of final global manufacturing PMIs for
December and the news was mostly good.
While there were certainly some misses versus expectations, countries like Japan, the Netherlands,
Switzerland, the UK, and Sweden reported very strong results. While not a Markit PMI, Sweden’s result
is notable because its 64.9 reading was the second-highest since the early 1990s, surpassed only by
May 2010. It’s no wonder that the SEK was the best-performing currency in the world last year. New
Orders were the strongest since 2006 for the Swedish index. Swiss data is similarly separate from Mar-
kit and showed very strong improvement with a reading of 58.
For the Eurozone more broadly, the factory powerhouse Germany reported a 34-month high for its
reading. Across the currency bloc, manufacturers reported that new export orders increased
“markedly”, backlogs of work rose, and delivery delays rose sharply. This is all good news in general as
it shows final demand is holding up well across the global economy.
In China, the pace of activity’s rise slowed, with PMI coming in at three month lows, but there were still
robust indicators of activity with strong increases in new orders including new export orders. It was a
similar story for Japan, which saw its Manufacturing PMI finally return to breakeven (50). Reported
output was flat after nearly two straight years of reported declines. New orders in Japan are still drop-
ping, but doing so at a much slower pace, with the auto sector cited as a key strong point. Taiwan’s
manufacturing PMI came in at the highest level since January of 2011 driven by robust export orders
that signal strong foreign demand.
Morning Commentary
Markit PMIs Show A Return To Improvement in December
20
30
40
50
60
70
Austria - Manufacturing - 53.5 vs 51.7 prior
Japan - Manufacturing - 50 vs 49 prior
Australia - Manufacturing - 55.7 vs 55.8 prior
Canada - Manufacturing - Pending
US - Manufacturing - 56.5 vs 56.7 prior
Malaysia - Manufacturing - 49.1 vs 48.4 prior
Indonesia - Manufacturing - 51.3 vs 50.6 prior
Philippines - Manufacturing - 49.2 vs 49.9 prior
Thailand - Manufacturing - 50.8 vs 50.4 prior
South Korea - Manufacturing - 52.9 vs 52.9 prior
Taiwan - Manufacturing - 59.4 vs 56.9 prior
Myanmar - Manufacturing - Pending
China - Manufacturing - 53 vs 54.9 prior
India - Manufacturing - 56.4 vs 56.3 prior
Russia - Manufacturing - 49.7 vs 46.3 prior
Poland - Manufacturing - 51.7 vs 50.8 prior
Turkey - Manufacturing - 50.8 vs 51.4 prior
Spain - Manufacturing - 51 vs 49.8 prior
Czech - Manufacturing - 57 vs 53.9 prior
Italy - Manufacturing - 52.8 vs 51.5 prior
France - Manufacturing - 51.1 vs 49.6 prior
Germany - Manufacturing - 58.3 vs 57.8 prior
Eurozone - Manufacturing - 55.2 vs 53.8 prior
Greece - Manufacturing - 46.9 vs 42.3 prior
Mexico - Manufacturing - Pending
Vietnam - Manufacturing - 51.7 vs 49.9 prior
Colombia - Manufacturing - Pending
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6
Coronavirus: Vaccine progress remains frustratingly slow. On a
cumulative basis since December 17th, new doses per day are
up above 240,000, which isn’t horrible but is far too slow given
more than 13mm allocated doses and just over 4mm total in-
jected. Hopefully the passing of the holidays will ramp up the
numbers; during the week of New Years before that holiday,
injections ran north of 300,000 per day, and progress is likely
to accelerate as localities scale up their distributions. In the
meantime, hospitalizations are at a record, and positivity has
exploded nationally; we also note a huge acceleration of cases
in the UK (chart page 9).
Morning Commentary
Note: population denominator excludes
states not reporting hospitalization data on a
given date.
US National COVID Tracking Statistics As-Of 1/3/2021
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
0
500
1000
1500
2000
25007 Day Average Tests Per Day ('000s)
7d Avg Positive Test Rate
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Deaths Per Day
7 Day Average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New Confirmed Cases ('000s)
7 Day Average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Hospitalization RatePer mm Population
US Vaccination Pace
240,484
306,308
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Cumulative AvgPer Day
12/27-12/31
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accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
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7
COVID By State: The table below includes a wide range of COVID-19 data points by state, as a refer-
ence. We will update it daily on this page.
Morning Commentary
State
AK 2 0 325 58 6,227 -1,451 5.2 2.9 -0.2 443.7 79.1 8,511.5 -1,983.9
AL 26 -17 3,758 447 8,047 -503 46.7 5.3 -3.5 766.4 91.2 1,641.2 -102.6
AR 35 0 2,366 477 9,740 -455 24.3 11.7 0.1 784.2 158.0 3,227.5 -150.9
AZ 91 25 8,864 3,044 48,392 5,834 18.3 12.4 3.5 1,217.8 418.2 6,648.4 801.5
CA 331 99 38,351 15 283,727 -53,634 13.5 8.4 2.5 970.6 0.4 7,180.7 -1,357.4
CO 46 10 2,319 15 27,989 -9,441 8.3 8.0 1.8 402.7 2.6 4,860.3 -1,639.4
CT 44 14 2,482 1,059 36,897 11,264 6.7 12.3 3.9 696.3 297.2 10,349.1 3,159.5
DC 4 -1 223 -6 5,022 -2,628 4.4 5.3 -1.0 316.2 -7.9 7,115.6 -3,723.5
DE 5 0 632 -2 7,108 264 8.9 4.8 -0.3 649.5 -2.1 7,299.5 271.6
FL 114 20 13,002 3,184 96,658 -8,001 13.5 5.3 1.0 605.4 148.2 4,500.4 -372.5
GA 39 -4 6,196 1,321 32,673 -4,379 19.0 3.7 -0.4 583.5 124.5 3,077.3 -412.4
GU 0 0 8 -2 217 -60 3.8 1.7 0.0 49.1 -9.5 1,306.9 -362.1
HI 1 0 146 31 3,951 -939 3.7 0.4 0.1 102.9 21.9 2,790.2 -663.4
IA 29 6 938 159 2,104 -178 44.6 9.1 2.0 297.4 50.4 666.9 -56.4
ID 13 2 916 -44 1,606 -87 57.0 7.5 1.2 512.6 -24.5 898.6 -48.8
IL 141 8 5,987 625 70,929 -7,797 8.4 11.1 0.6 472.5 49.3 5,597.4 -615.3
IN 90 28 4,604 392 36,663 -2,698 12.6 13.4 4.1 683.9 58.2 5,445.9 -400.8
KS 53 29 2,579 1,256 7,186 2,701 35.9 18.2 10.1 885.4 431.2 2,466.6 927.0
KY 24 1 2,823 717 13,878 776 20.3 5.4 0.3 631.9 160.6 3,106.4 173.6
LA 35 0 3,048 1,108 21,973 2,935 13.9 7.6 -0.1 655.7 238.4 4,726.7 631.4
MA 71 15 4,989 817 61,015 -8,278 8.2 10.3 2.2 718.0 117.6 8,779.7 -1,191.2
MD 40 3 2,589 247 37,338 -3,890 6.9 6.7 0.4 428.2 40.9 6,175.9 -643.4
ME 5 1 530 111 6,277 190 8.4 3.8 0.5 394.5 82.7 4,670.0 141.2
MI 88 0 3,114 218 20,472 -19,476 15.2 8.8 0.0 311.8 21.8 2,049.9 -1,950.1
MN 40 -2 1,640 -37 29,492 -6,880 5.6 7.2 -0.4 290.9 -6.6 5,229.4 -1,219.9
MO 36 -18 2,810 394 16,370 343 17.2 5.8 -2.9 457.8 64.2 2,667.3 55.9
MP 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -18.1 0.0 -18.1
MS 38 10 2,239 517 2,239 -6,340 100.0 12.7 3.3 752.3 173.7 752.3 -2,130.3
MT 7 -2 372 -1 2,240 -1,307 16.6 6.4 -1.5 347.7 -1.2 2,095.5 -1,223.2
NC 52 5 6,871 1,491 50,463 -2,410 13.6 4.9 0.5 655.1 142.1 4,811.4 -229.8
ND 7 2 225 21 8,812 4,968 2.6 8.6 2.2 295.3 27.7 11,563.0 6,519.2
NE 16 2 989 143 9,803 -16 10.1 8.1 1.2 511.4 74.1 5,067.6 -8.2
NH 10 3 806 196 5,892 -758 13.7 7.6 2.1 592.7 144.4 4,333.6 -557.8
NJ 83 20 4,403 313 47,887 -3,772 9.2 9.3 2.3 495.7 35.3 5,391.4 -424.6
NM 29 4 1,204 64 10,490 -3,712 11.5 14.0 2.0 574.1 30.7 5,002.7 -1,770.4
NV 33 9 2,016 78 11,858 -2,248 17.0 10.7 2.8 654.4 25.3 3,849.7 -730.0
NY 138 7 13,573 2,986 174,373 -12,818 7.8 7.1 0.4 697.7 153.5 8,963.5 -658.9
OH 81 15 7,279 462 41,575 -4,014 17.5 6.9 1.3 622.8 39.6 3,556.7 -343.4
OK 25 3 3,562 947 14,940 -4,235 23.8 6.4 0.7 900.1 239.4 3,775.6 -1,070.3
OR 10 -2 1,146 175 16,455 -927 7.0 2.5 -0.4 271.6 41.5 3,901.5 -219.8
PA 184 28 7,407 -354 16,814 -3,219 44.1 14.3 2.2 578.5 -27.6 1,313.4 -251.5
RI 5 -6 430 -303 4,930 -7,994 8.7 5.1 -5.7 405.6 -286.0 4,653.6 -7,545.8
SC 45 13 3,641 388 22,649 -6,761 16.1 8.7 2.6 707.3 75.4 4,399.0 -1,313.2
SD 10 -3 449 68 1,024 -47 43.8 10.8 -2.9 507.4 77.4 1,157.8 -53.3
TN 73 10 6,317 -25 24,926 -7,207 25.3 10.7 1.5 924.4 -3.7 3,647.9 -1,054.8
TX 206 46 17,821 5,402 85,339 -25,456 20.9 7.1 1.6 614.6 186.3 2,943.1 -877.9
UT 12 4 2,657 670 11,279 299 23.6 3.9 1.2 828.8 208.9 3,518.1 93.3
VA 39 9 4,313 494 30,785 496 14.0 4.5 1.1 505.3 57.9 3,606.7 58.1
VI 0 0 9 1 175 -42 5.1 0.0 0.0 84.4 5.4 1,665.3 -401.7
VT 2 0 109 25 4,146 -217 2.6 3.0 -0.7 174.9 40.8 6,644.1 -348.2
WA 40 28 1,433 -584 18,006 -11,594 8.0 5.2 3.7 188.2 -76.7 2,364.6 -1,522.6
WI 32 -11 2,524 258 22,634 -4,224 11.1 5.4 -1.8 433.4 44.4 3,887.4 -725.5
WV 17 -1 1,478 283 13,356 3,644 11.1 9.7 -0.3 824.9 157.8 7,452.5 2,033.6
WY 9 6 239 20 3,348 1,262 7.1 16.0 10.6 413.4 33.8 5,784.1 2,180.8
US 2,607 422 208,750 29,343 1,548,388 -205,122 13.5 7.9 1.3 629.0 88.4 4,665.6 -618.1
Week
Change
COVID-19 Outbreak Statistics By State: Level, Growth, and Per Capita (As-Of 1/3/2021)Raw Count (7 Day Average) 7 Day +ve
Test Rate
(%)
Per 1mm Population
Deaths
Day/Day
Week
Change
Cases
Day/Day
Week
Change
Tests
Day/Day
Week
Change
Deaths
Day/Day
Week
Change
Cases
Day/Day
Week
Change
Tests
Day/Day
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8
Morning Commentary
% of % of
State Trend Peak Cases State Trend Peak Cases
NY Rising 100.0 13573 OR Rising 74.7 2291
FL Rising 100.0 13002 NV Rising 73.0 4031
AZ Rising 100.0 8864 PA Falling 70.0 14813
NC Rising 100.0 6871 IN Rising 66.7 9209
GA Rising 100.0 6196 TN Falling 65.6 12633
VA Rising 100.0 4313 MO Rising 59.5 5619
SC Rising 100.0 3641 OH Rising 58.1 14559
OK Rising 100.0 3562 HI Rising 57.2 291
LA Rising 100.0 3048 ID Falling 55.4 1832
MS Rising 100.0 2239 IL Rising 48.3 11975
WV Rising 100.0 1478 WA Falling 47.5 2867
ME Rising 100.0 530 AK Rising 46.1 649
MA Rising 99.3 4989 CO Rising 45.8 4638
TX Rising 98.5 17821 NM Rising 45.1 2407
AR Rising 94.8 2366 NE Rising 41.4 1979
VT Rising 93.3 109 MI Rising 37.3 6227
KS Rising 93.2 2579 WI Rising 35.8 5047
NH Rising 91.2 806 RI Falling 32.4 859
AL Rising 90.9 3758 SD Rising 30.8 898
CT Rising 89.1 2482 MT Falling 28.7 743
MD Rising 88.6 2589 VI Rising 27.2 18
CA Rising 87.3 38351 WY Rising 26.9 479
NJ Rising 86.6 4403 IA Rising 24.6 1877
KY Rising 80.8 2823 MN Falling 23.3 3281
DC Falling 77.6 223 ND Rising 15.5 450
DE Falling 76.6 632 GU Falling 6.4 16
UT Rising 75.0 2657 MP Falling 0.0 0
State State
MS Rising 79.9 100.0 IN Rising 1.9 12.6
ID Rising 0.4 57.0 NM Rising 3.5 11.5
AL Rising 8.0 46.7 WI Rising 2.7 11.1
IA Rising 10.4 44.6 WV Falling -1.2 11.1
PA Rising 5.3 44.1 NE Rising 1.5 10.1
SD Rising 8.3 43.8 NJ Rising 1.3 9.2
KS Rising 6.4 35.9 DE Falling -0.4 8.9
TN Rising 5.6 25.3 RI Rising 3.0 8.7
AR Rising 5.8 24.3 ME Rising 1.6 8.4
OK Rising 10.2 23.8 IL Rising 1.6 8.4
UT Rising 5.5 23.6 CO Rising 2.1 8.3
TX Rising 9.7 20.9 MA Rising 2.2 8.2
KY Rising 4.3 20.3 WA Rising 1.1 8.0
GA Rising 5.8 19.0 NY Rising 2.1 7.8
AZ Rising 4.6 18.3 WY Falling -3.4 7.1
OH Rising 2.6 17.5 OR Rising 1.4 7.0
MO Rising 2.1 17.2 MD Rising 1.3 6.9
NV Rising 3.3 17.0 CT Rising 1.2 6.7
MT Rising 6.1 16.6 MN Rising 1.0 5.6
SC Rising 5.0 16.1 AK Rising 1.7 5.2
MI Rising 8.0 15.2 VI Rising 1.2 5.1
VA Rising 1.4 14.0 DC Rising 1.5 4.4
LA Rising 3.7 13.9 GU Rising 0.2 3.8
NH Rising 4.5 13.7 HI Rising 1.3 3.7
NC Rising 3.4 13.6 VT Rising 0.7 2.6
CA Rising 2.2 13.5 ND Falling -2.8 2.6
FL Rising 4.1 13.5 MP Falling -100.0 0.0
State State
AZ Rising 8.8 626 VA Rising 8.5 317
NV Falling -0.7 607 IL Falling -6.5 301
AL Rising 11.6 588 CT Falling -12.0 296
CA Rising 7.2 544 SD Falling -4.4 296
GA Rising 17.9 500 KS Falling -18.6 283
TN Rising 11.5 493 MD Rising 1.0 283
MS Rising 5.7 489 MI Falling -11.3 276
OK Rising 10.5 483 NE Falling 0.0 260
WV Rising 15.2 449 NH Rising 20.4 239
MO Rising 0.2 440 ID Falling -10.4 197
TX Rising 15.4 433 IA Rising 4.3 183
DE Rising 4.5 432 MT Falling -4.0 180
PA Falling -6.4 432 WI Falling -6.5 175
NY Rising 10.9 409 CO Falling -16.4 172
IN Falling -3.5 403 WY Falling -32.2 171
AR Rising 11.3 403 UT Rising 6.0 171
SC Rising 16.4 402 MN Falling -14.6 159
RI Falling -3.6 402 WA Falling -5.2 149
NJ Rising 1.5 396 ME Falling -1.6 134
LA Rising 19.8 394 ND Falling -7.5 129
KY Rising 11.5 375 OR Falling -1.1 124
OH Falling -3.1 362 AK Rising 22.5 119
DC Rising 5.6 347 GU Falling -38.9 66
NM Falling -5.5 341 HI Rising 34.4 61
NC Rising 14.5 341 VT Falling -8.8 50
MA Rising 6.3 330 VI Falling n/a 0
FL Rising 17.9 324 MP Falling n/a 0
Positive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Trend
WoW
Change
Positive
Rate
New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory
6 Month COVID-19 Case Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 1/3/21
6 Month COVID-19 Positive Test Rate By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 1/3/21
Positive Test Rate: Distribution & TrajectoryTrend
WoW
Change
Positive
Rate
6 Month COVID-19 Per Capita Hospitalization By State/Territory: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 1/3/21
Trend
WoW %
Chg
Hospital
Rate Trend
WoW %
Chg
Hospital
RateHospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Hospitalization Rate: Distribution & Trajectory
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accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
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9
Morning Commentary Global New Cases Per Day Per mm Population (7d Avg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
World
Americas Ex US
EU
East Asia
Africa
US
Rest of World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
World
East Asia
Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
South Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Canada
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
US
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
FranceGermanyItalySpainUnited KingdomSweden
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
China
Japan
South Korea
Singapore
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accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the
purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not
responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.
10
US Calendar: Markit releases US PMI today 24 1/4 hours ahead of ISM, while the Census announces
construction spending data for November. Fed speakers are also returning to their bits, with Evans
(Chicago), Bostic (Atlanta), and Mester (Cleveland) due to speak at the American Economics Associa-
tion annual conference (remote). To stay on top of all the latest reports, make sure to check out our
Interactive Earnings Calendar. You can also follow US and Global data with our Economic Scorecard.
Morning Commentary
Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart
S&P 500 3767.00 48.7 100.5 Gold 1935.10 211.1 308.4
Russell 1989.50 74.4 -35.6 Silver 27.36 358.9 355.8
VIX Fut 23.45 -95.0 -63.6 WTI 48.20 -66.0 106.9
TSX 1036.80 76.8 -56.6 Copper 359.45 214.5 61.6
2 Year 12.11 0.0 0.2 Nikkei 27258.38 -67.7 150.6
5 Year 36.71 0.6 1.3 CSI 300 5267.72 108.3 401.4
10 Year 93.32 2.0 1.0 ASX 200 6684.25 147.5 29.2
30 Year 166.76 2.3 0.9 STOXX 600 405.01 149.9 161.3
2s10s 81.01 2.0 1.2 BBG USD 1115.65 -41.5 -106.9
5s30s 129.90 1.6 -0.3 EURUSD 1.2301 70.4 69.6
5 Yr BE 197.57 0.9 4.8 USDJPY 102.96 -23.3 -81.9
10 Yr BE 199.51 0.8 2.6 EM FX 58.41 120.1 108.0
Mar '21 99.84 0.5 0.01 CDX IG 49.87 -0.1 -2.3
Jun '21 99.84 0.0 0.01 iTraxx IG 46.49 -2.7 -2.1
Sep '21 99.84 0.5 0.02 CDX HY 290.70 -0.8 -4.8
Dec '21 99.80 0.5 0.02 iTraxx HY 238.58 -1.0 -5.7
Euro
do
llar
s
Cre
dit
Bespoke Major Asset Class Dashboard
Equ
ity
Futs
Co
mm
od
ity
Trsy
Yie
lds
Int'
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Cu
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FX
(bps)(bps)
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Commentary 010421Bespoke Morning Lineup-010421 0e59n