8 issues and insights mumbai | thursday 9 january 2020 ... · offer those improvements, have...

8 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS>

MUMBAI | THURSDAY 9 JANUARY 2020

> CHINESE WHISPERS

SUBHOMOY BHATTACHARJEE

The biometric collection of atten-dance records of governmentemployees remains Delhi-cen-

tric almost five years after the schemewas rolled out. Just 2,33,994 employeesare registered on the Aadhaar-enabledBiometric Attendance System (BAS)according to its website, less than 7 percent of the total civilian employeesemployed by the Indian government.Almost no state uses it to track itsemployees’ attendance record.

The BAS is part of thisgovernment’s agenda toleverage technology toensure that its benefitsaccrue to large swathes ofthe population. Meant tousher in a behaviourchange among govern-ment employees, it hasclearly not travelled far.

The behaviour changethat has taken off insteadis the electronic paymentsystem. In the past twoyears, it has become the most visiblemanifestation of the government’sDigital India programme. The plat-form-agnostic payment channelsdeveloped by National PaymentsCorporation of India has logged over ~2trillion worth of transactions inDecember 2019, almost two thirds ofIndia’s GDP.

Few Indians might know the fullform of acronyms such as NACH(National Automated Clearing House),

which enables those high-volume inter-bank electronic transactions, or whatBHIM (Bharat Interface for Money). Yet,they use it massively, often interchang-ing it with apps such as Google Pay orPaytm, all the while depending on justtheir mobile numbers and a VirtualPayment Address. It has been an explo-sive growth from an environment of just35 banks recording a transaction valueof just ~700 crore in December 2016.

Between the success of the electron-ic payments and the failure of the bio-metric attendance are ranged the story

of the various technologicalthrusts tried by the NarendraModi government over itsfive-and-a-half year spell. Ofthe 22 schemes that aim to“transform India into a digi-tally empowered society andknowledge-based economy”listed by the ministry of elec-tronics and information tech-nology, those that serve aclearly defined market, havescored. Those meant to makebehavioural changes for

which there are no clear markets tooffer those improvements, have strug-gled to become viable.

Consider Bharat Net. It is the planto connect all the 2,50,000 gram pan-chayats with optical fibre cables to pro-vide at least 100 Mbps connectivity. Sofar, 3,80,988 kms of the fibre has beenlaid out connecting more than half(1,40,668) of those gram panchayats.This connectivity can bring a host ofbenefits to the villages — except the vil-

lagers are not sold on the idea. They arefar more comfortable tracking the sameinformation on their mobiles, whichexplains why the data plans sold by thetelecom companies are so hotlydemanded. Data through wires to bebrought by government agenciesremains locked behind the doors of thepanchayat offices. There are no takers.

On the other hand, there are manytakers for the Online Registration

System (ORS) under e-Hospitals.Though this initiative has not attractedmuch publicity but 237 hospitals arealready on board. It has cut down thoselong familiar queues in governmenthospitals. Of the 32,00,000 onlineappointments made till this week, morethan 40 per cent of them for the AllIndia Institute of Medical Sciences,Delhi. It is the most visible sign ofprogress for these patients just as thee-passport service has become for thosehigher up on the income ladder.

At the other end is a bright idea likeDigital Locker, which has not caught thepopular imagination. It provides a meansto store all documents of a person in adigital repository. So the person essen-tially carries around just a url. There are32.3 million names registered with theDigilocker facility. Despite the impressivenumbers, few universities or institutionsremain satisfied with being shown theurl. They still believe in the paper trail.

In Modi’s first term, there was atechnological innovation almost everymonth. Other than the list above, therehas been Meghraj, to access the benefitsof cloud computing, e-Taal, DigitalVillage, Soil Health Card, PradhanMantri Gramin Digital SakshartaAbhiyaan and Government e-MarketPlace (GeM). Many are still under trial.

The reasons are clear. It is difficultto figure out for which markets theseschemes aim to provide opportunities.So even though they are smartly con-ceived tools to ensure either digitalaccess, digital inclusion, digitalempowerment or bridge the digitaldivide, they remain mostly on paper.

For instance the money availablefor Pradhan Mantri Gramin DigitalSaksharta Abhiyan, a training pro-gramme to make over 60 million ruralhouseholds digitally literate, is

~2351.38 crore, all states combined.The money actually spent was ~100crore in 2017-18 and ~438 crore in 2018-19. There is no clear evidence for therural population whether the trainingwas linked to jobs.

This is the same reason that anotherrelated project meant to set up at leastone Common Services Centre (CSC) inevery gram panchayat has stuttered.These CSCs were to be operated by localentrepreneurs to provide eServices torural citizens. As recently as October2019, the government’s special purposevehicle to run these centres, CSC e-Governance Services, is working on apilot project to extend tele-medicine forAyush ministry, through them. Thereare few takers for the 350 digital ser-vices each of these CSCs offer. Mostpeople use the CSCs to downloadmovies, instead.

The stiffest challenge that wouldultimately decide the fate of the gov-ernment’s Digital India programme istied with the fate of the National Policyon Electronics, announced a year agoin February 2019. Here, the market link-age is quite evident. According to datafrom October 2019, the government hasapproved 233 applications with an esti-mated investment of ~63,610 crore. Tosupport those investments, there areplans for 23 electronic manufacturingclusters spanning 15 states.

By Indian standards the moneyoffered as grants in aid of ~1,577 croreto get these clusters going, is substan-tial. The policy regime such as auto-matic approval for 100 per cent FDI inthe sector is one of most liberal byIndian standards. Will India emergeas one of the global hubs for electron-ics manufacturing? The results wouldnot be in for at least another coupleof years.

The highs and lows of Digital IndiaSchemes that address clear market demandhave clicked; those that focus on behaviouralchange, not so much

Resuming a fightIt hasn’t been long that a video clip of theBharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s)Jharkhand MLA C P Singh compelling afellow MLA from the Congress, IrfanAnsari, to chant “Jai Shree Ram” outsidethe Assembly building went viral. OnWednesday, the concluding day of theinaugural session of the newlyconstituted Assembly, the two were partof a stormy argument as the scene shiftedto inside the House. Irfan fired the firstsalvo this time when he blamed BJPworkers for the infamous Tabrez Ansarilynching during the party’s rule. At this,Singh asked him to apologise and theSpeaker, too, asked him to expressregret. Irfan refused and he said that hehad not defamed the party or theRashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh. Thematter escalated when the BJP MLAincensed Irfan further by questioning his“status” and asked him as to what wouldbe the latter’s reaction if someone calledhim a terrorist. Matters threatened todeteriorate further when other membersstepped in and calmed them down.

BJP’s CAA ‘padyatra’Even as the anti-Citizenship AmendmentAct (CAA) protests continue to makeheadlines and drawing in protesters fromall walks of life, the ruling BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) has geared up tocounter the narrative with a "padyatra" inUttar Pradesh. Starting Wednesday, topparty leaders including the two UP deputychief ministers — Keshav Prasad Mauryaand Dinesh Sharma — as well as state BJPunit president Swantra Dev Singh apartfrom other senior cabinet ministers wouldhit the street in different districts. Theywill interact with the common man and“expose” the agenda of the Opposition.The "padyatra" programme wouldcontinue till January 14 and would alsocomprise public meetings at therespective places. A few Union cabinetministers would also participate in theprogramme in UP.

Targeting Deepika PadukoneDeepika Padukone’s visit to JawaharlalNehru University (JNU) on Tuesday — insolidarity with the students injured inSunday’s attack in the campus — has furtherpolarised social media. Practically, it’s likeyou are either with Padukone or against her:There is no middle path. And the list of thosewith extreme viewpoints includes seniorgovernment functionaries, some of whomlashed out at the actor a day later. "A countrywhere Kanhaiya claims to be a student,Deepika is a governance expert and Anuragteaches civilisation values," tweeted AnujGupta, officer on special duty to Unionminister Piyush Goyal. Goyal, incidentally,was instrumental in organising a meeting ofBollywood celebs to rake up support for theCitizenship Amendment Act. It didn’t takelong for the internet trolls to take a cue andget all riled up, calling for a boycott of herupcoming movie Chhapaak. To back theirclaims, they had cancelled their tickets to thefilm, which releases on Friday, and manysocial media users (including some followedby PM Modi) posted screenshots.However, itdid not take the Twitter users long to figureout that all the shots were of tickets from thesame show and seats at the same movietheatre in Vadodara.

As economic slowdown starts tolook more and more real thanever before and signs of invest-

ments fade, the Union Budget is beingincreasingly seen as a fountain of hope.The customary pre-Budget meetingsbetween the government and theindustry have taken place, but with adifference. Instead of the finance min-ister meeting business heads, the primeminister has done so. Of course, theseinteractions were not labelled as pre-

Budget meetings, but the timing can-not be missed. While the picture ofwho’s who of India Inc standing alongside the PM is sending out a messagein the current times of distress, the nextgovernment step, possibly in theBudget, will determine India’s invest-ment roadmap and job creation poten-tial. The PM has given a call to theindustry for unleashing the animalspirits, but there aren’t any takers yet.

In that backdrop, there’s buzz insome unlikely quarters of the govern-ment, working to be a part of the invest-ment and job creation kitty. Forinstance, the water-related ministrieshave hardly drawn much attention inthe past. But now, the recently coinedJal Jeevan Mission, with the goal of giv-ing functional tap connection to allrural households by 2024, is warmingthings up. Quite like Ayushman Bharat,another flagship project, had added azing to the Union Health Ministry dur-ing Narendra Modi government’s firststint, Jal Jeevan’s “tap for all” initiativeis attracting international audience and

more to the umbrella water ministryduring NDA 2.0.

While it’s been the job of some ofthe key economic ministries to brain-storm on boosting investment and cre-ating employment, officials managingthe latest water mission are setting sim-ilar goals. The idea is that Jal JeevanMission and Jal Shakti Abhiyan — anintensive water conservation campaign— must converge to make the best ofthe government focus on water. Tuckedin the interiors of New Delhi’s CGOcomplex, the headquarter of the watermission is a scene of activity till lateevening on a typical working day.Bharat Lal, the mission director of JalJeevan, does a quick calculation tomake a point. Every village will get aninvestment of around ~50 lakh from theJal Jeevan Mission, which has a totalproject cost of ~3.6 trillion with theCentre’s share at a little over Rs 2 tril-lion. Close to 700,000 villages across700 districts are expected to be coveredby the scheme. The managers believethe project will create jobs at several

levels, from engineering to masonry,planning and designing to factorywork. This could all help boost govern-ment’s rural infrastructure spendingwhen it’s needed the most, they believe.The numbers show that out of 178.7 mil-lion rural households in India, about146 million are yet to get householdwater tap connections.

Since it’s a Centre-state collabora-tion, the question that comes to mindis whether Jal Jeevan will face a similarresistance from non-BJP states thatAyushman Bharat has witnessed.Surprisingly, the people in charge saythe response from the states, includingthose ruled by opposition parties, hasbeen more than positive. Who doesn’twant to give water connection to allhouseholds as it’s the state responsibil-ity to provide water, asks Lal, who’s inthe midst of striking many partnershipsand collaborations to make Jal Jeevana success.

Another comparison that one can’tmiss is with Swachh Bharat, that hasoccupied the centrestage for the pastfive years. While both are about chang-ing behavior, the consensus seems tobe that supplying drinking water to all

is a more complex subject. While thePM seems to be keeping a close trackof the progress like he has been doingfor Swachh Bharat and AyushmanBharat, the lessons learnt from the pop-ular schemes are coming handy. Thatincludes how to track and transferfunds and go for targeted delivery.

Among other things, Aadhar of thepeople getting access to tap connec-tions will be used to monitor deliveryof the project. It, however, doesn’t meanthat one can’t get a tap if he doesn’thave an Aadhar card. It’s a universalcoverage plan, officials quickly explain.Rural water may not immediately haveany connect with high-end technology,but there’s plenty being contemplated— from geo-tagging for real time mon-itoring to sensor-based measurementsystem along with hydro geo maps. TheDepartment of Space too will have arole in it.

To make the latest flagship schemeclick, the involvement of the local peo-ple (mainly gram panchayat) will bekey. Partnerships with states and otherstakeholders like NGOs, internationalorganisations and industry too willdetermine if 2024 — the year thatIndia goes for the next general election— is a feasible target or not to connectall rural households with water taps.On the way, there’s hope for new jobsand investments.

Channelling into a new streamBoosting investment to creating employment: Officials managing theJal Jeevan Mission are setting goals beyond universal water supply

> LETTERS

When ‘repairs’ hurtThe government has brought GDPgrowth to the slowest in 11 years, aresult of its fixated politics and pre-scriptive economics. This regimecame in by building up suspicionover every sphere of governance byits predecessor. However, it endedup implementing ideas such asdemonetisation, only to find thosedisproved and, in the process, knock-ing out the cornerstone of our cashcentric architecture. It had no inklingof the ensuing collapse of every facetof our economy.

More than a flagging economy, itis the feckless efforts at its repair thatis a bigger concern and it is madeworse by the government’s apathy toeconomists and its disregard for theautonomy of pivotal planning andoversight institutions.

There is frenetic activity but littleprogress in the economy ,made worseby the unsettled socio political envi-rons induced by the energetic prop-agation of inconsequential themes .

R Narayanan Navi Mumbai

Long way to goThis refers to “Nirbhaya case convictsto be hanged on Jan 22” (January 8).After a seven-year-long legal battle,Nirbhaya’s family will finally heave asigh of relief and her departed soulwill be in peace. Perseverance from

her par-ents,mediapressureand pub-lic sup-port allthe way,have alsocon-

tributed to such a verdict. But todayis also the time for some introspec-tion: Whether justice could have beendelivered faster or has our govern-ment done enough to ensure womenare safer travelling in public trans-port, especially post sunset, now.Have CCTVs and police patrollingcovered all such corners of thenational capital? We will find that westill have a long way to go. And wehave not learnt our lessons despitethis horrific and brutal assault on the23-year-old physiotherapy student.Security measures promised afterthat incident don’t seem to haveturned into reality till date. Hopewhichever party forms the govern-ment in Delhi next does not put thisissue on the back-burner again.

Bal Govind Noida

Letters can be mailed, faxed or e-mailed to: The Editor, Business StandardNehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi 110 002 Fax: (011) 23720201 · E-mail: [email protected] letters must have a postal address andtelephone number

As we conclude an eventfuldecade of profound social, eco-nomic and political transforma-

tion, and enter a new one full of moreuncertainties, how do we assess thestate of the Indian impact investingsector at this juncture? The periodassumes significance because it hasbeen 10 years since the microfinancecrisis. How do we then assess thepotential of impact investing to helpthe country achieve our 2030Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)targets over the next decade?

Today, there are three major trendsshaping the development finance spacewhich will together determine thefuture of using private capital for publicgood. And each of them has implica-tions for the design of the proposedNational Social Stock Exchange:

1. Blurring of lines between impactinvesting and commercial venture cap-ital2. Consensus on what constitutesimpact (filter), how to measure it (rat-ing) and how it can be priced (credit)among investors and philanthropists

3. Development of financial instrumentsfor non-profits and non-market-return(or muted return) social enterprises

The overlap between impact andmainstream venture capitalist (VC)investment is here to stay. It has beenincreasing for some time, as pointedout in the 2017 McKinsey study, whichmakes sense, because social enterprisesthat are initially funded by impact cap-ital and are successful in demonstrat-ing traction and defensibility, are ableto attract the commercial capital theyneed to further scale. With more exitsfrom such enterprises, and availabilityof significant VC capital in India, evenlarge private equity titans havelaunched impact funds, and more willdo so in the future.

What does this mean? One, that highquality entrepreneurs will have moreoptions to choose from, and impact andcommercial fund managers will findsynergies in working together. Two, thatsocial enterprises which are not able todeliver a market return because of theinherent structural challenges in thesectors where they operate, will find itharder to raise venture capital funding,impact or otherwise. And three, impactfunds will need to work harder to dif-ferentiate themselves from the broaderVC ecosystem, most importantly by bet-ter measuring what they call impact.

Impact management should be seenat three levels. First, having a basic impact“filter” to define what is an impact invest-ment or not. Once this filter is met, alldeals that make it through are evaluatedpurely on a financial basis. Most impactfunds go beyond this and try to measureand report their impact at an enterpriselevel in terms of outreach (number of low-income customers or suppliers) anddepth (e.g. average income increase for a

farmer or artisan in their supply chain),with additional metrics relating to cli-mate or gender equality.

The problem is not just the lack ofconsistency in measurement or theneed for an external social audit mech-anism but of a missing consensus onan impact “rating” that measure the rel-ative degree of impact within andacross diverse social sectors such aseducation, healthcare or waste man-agement. What is needed is industrylevel and tri-sector collaboration todefine common standards.

The good news is there has beenmuch progress globally on this frontwith initiatives like the ImpactManagement Project, a five-pointframework that articulates what consti-tutes impact, and metrics such as theImpact Investment Reporting Standards(IRIS). In India, the Impact InvestorsCouncil is driving the adoption of bestpractices on common reporting stan-dards and aggregating the impact met-rics of Indian funds. Ideally, impactframeworks need to be agnostic of thedelivery-model, using a commonimpact criteria across for- and not-for-profits to compare relative social per-formance. The third step would be if themeasurement was credible enough toenable trading of an impact “credit”, acurrency that monetises the value ofsocial impact.

Effective impact measurement isalso a driver of the third major trend:The innovative use of blended financeinstruments to fund social enterprisesthat can’t deliver market returns buthave delivery models to achieve scalablesocial outcomes. Several pilots over thelast few years have shown that a creativecombination of philanthropic and com-mercial investments can help social

enterprises raise capital through struc-tures such as social success notes, devel-opment impact bonds and various guar-antee arrangements. There is now avibrant ecosystem of intermediaries(bond arrangers, measurement agen-cies) and funders (both high-net-worthindividuals and family offices as well asglobal foundations and donors) eager touse these instruments.

It is in light of these three major trendsthat we can consider the potentially cat-alytic role of the Social Stock Exchange(SSE), which can allow us to tap into thegrowing pool of impact money globallyand channel it to the highest impactenterprises in the country. The SSE, inaddition to listing equity shares of for-profit social enterprises, could also listblended finance instruments of NGOs.The SSE needs a consistent impact filterto determine who gets to list and is incen-tivised, to ensure a credible pipeline ofenterprises. And the SSE needs not justphilanthropists but commercially-focused investors, with and without theimpact tag, to enable liquidity.

Over the last decade, the impactinvestment industry has alreadydemonstrated success in financial inclu-sion and green investing, transformingfinancial intermediation for the poorand driving a carbon-conscious agendaacross diverse sectors spanning electri-fication, clean cooking, waste, sanita-tion, water, agriculture, mobility, air pol-lution and more. Creating a common“impact credit” may be much harderask, but it is certainly something thatwe must aspire to if we are to effectivelywork together to address our develop-ment targets for 2030.

The author leads Asha Impact, an impactinvestment and policy advocacy firm

The future of impact investingINSIGHT

KARTIK DESAI

NOT FOR PROFITNIVEDITA MOOKERJI

> HAMBONE

TAKETWOANALYSIS BEHIND THE HEADLINES

Three major trends to consider when designing the Social Stock Exchange

WHAT CLICKS

*Renamed and expanded in 2015Source: Parliament replies and MeiTY website

Name of Year of Impactscheme launchBharat Net 2012* 1,40,668 gram

panchayats Digital payments 2016 ~8125.49 crDigital locker 2015 32.3 mn Digital village 2018 796 Gram

PanchayatsGeM 2016 2,99,544

sellers registeredJeevan Praman 2014 30.6 mn

certificates ORS e Hospital 2018 3.252 mn

appointmentsissued in 344 hospitals

PMGDISHA 2017 23 mnpeople trained

Electronics 2016 ~63,610 crManufacturing onwards proposed

investment (private sector)

e-procurement 2017 3.9 mn tenders issued

Meghraj 2014 1,155 departmentsonboarded

MyGov 2014 0.95 mn users

OPINION 9> STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM

The first advance estimates of gross domestic product for the currentyear, released by the government on Tuesday, showed that growth inthe Indian economy will slow to 5 per cent, compared to 6.8 per centlast year. Since most high-frequency indicators suggest that a sharp

rebound is unlikely in the near-term, stakeholders are looking for policy support.While it will take a few weeks to know to what extent the government is willingto support growth through the Budget, markets have been hoping that after apause in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will lower policy interestrates to push up economic activity when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)meets next. Such expectations, however, were dented by the remarks made byRBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday. Mr Das rightly said that persistentlyhigh inflation affects the economy’s allocative efficiency and obstructs growth.He also reasoned that high inflation worsens income distribution by loweringthe real income of the poor.

The MPC’s surprise move in December was partly because of higher con-sumer price inflation, which touched a 40-month high of 5.54 per cent inNovember. Economists predict that it will now cross the 6 per cent mark —the upper end of the target band. Currently, retail inflation is largely beingdriven by food prices, as core inflation is at a lower level, reflecting lowerpricing power and weak demand in the economy. So, should the rate-settingcommittee look through the factors driving inflation and reduce rates to sup-port growth in its next meeting? It is important to note that the mandate ofthe RBI is to target headline inflation.

As the outcome of the December meeting showed, it will not be easy forthe MPC to cut rates. Minutes of the meeting showed that the committeewas not worried about vegetable prices alone, and as Mr Das noted: “…thereis a need for greater clarity as to how the overall food inflation path is goingto evolve, as there is some uncertainty about the outlook of prices of certainnon-vegetable food items such as cereals, pulses, milk and sugar.” He alsohighlighted the lack of clarity on how the telecom tariff hike will play out.Further, the upcoming Budget will play a big role in the next monetary policydecision. A large fiscal slippage will naturally deter the MPC from cuttingpolicy rates. A surge in crude oil prices, owing to tension in West Asia, willalso increase risks to the inflation outlook.

There is no doubt that the Indian economy needs support, but it is worthdebating whether it makes sense to risk financial stability to support growthin the short run. Will it pay to have an excessively accommodative fiscal andmonetary policies, along with an abundance of liquidity in the system?Further, what are the chances that the policy impetus will quickly reviveeconomic activity and India will be able to withdraw the stimulus before anexternal shock hits the economy? It would be advisable to maintain a finebalance between supporting growth and preserving financial stability. Thepolicy target should be to attain a durable recovery in economic growth,which may not come with another rate cut alone.

Increasing green coverAmbiguity in the definition of forests should be removed

The government’s forest management record, as portrayed in theState of Forests in India 2019 report, seems a blend of some notablesuccesses and a few glaring failures. While the country’s overallgreen cover has increased by 5,188 sq km — an area of the size of

Delhi and Goa put together — the existing forests are thinning and severalnorth-eastern states and other regions inhabited largely by tribals have lostsome of their forests. This bodes ill for the livelihood security of the largeforest-dependent population. It also has socio-economic, and law and orderimplications as many of these tracts are controlled by Naxalites. Worse still,the loss of forests in the north-east is attributed, among other factors, toclearance of forests for the illegal cultivation of poppy, a crop used widely toraise resources to finance the militancy. Well-advised strategies are, therefore,called for to prevent diversion of forestland to any non-forest use other thanessential infrastructure and developmental programmes in these regions.

On the upside, the report provides evidence of a sustained long-termuptrend in India’s forest cover. Only a few countries can boast of such a feat.India’s total green cover now stands at over 8.07 million sq kms, or 24.6 percent of the entire territory. It inspires confidence in fulfilling — or reachingfairly close to — the country’s commitment under the Paris ClimateAgreement to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3.0 billion tonnes inthe forest sector by 2030. However, given the slow pace of expansion in theforest cover, cumulatively just over 2 per cent in the past three decades,hitting the ultimate goal of having 33 per cent of the geographic area underforests and trees seems a tall order.

But the fact also is that the report’s numbers and conclusions cannot betaken at their face value. The total forest area figure, for instance, includesthe “tree cover” comprising the likes of commercial plantations, orchardsand the scattered trees on roadsides and elsewhere. The monoculture ofthese trees, obviously, is not the same as typical forests, though the trees alsoserve the environmental objectives. However, the much-needed ecologicalbiodiversity that is associated with forests is missing in the tree covers.

The inclusion of plantations in the forest data can, indeed, be blamedon the lack of a proper definition of forests. Each organisation sets its ownparameters for treating a piece of land as forest. The Forest Survey of India,which prepares the biennial State of the Forests report, counts any patch ofland as forest if it is more than one hectare in size and has a tree canopydensity of above 10 per cent, irrespective of the ownership or legal status ofthe land. States have their own norms for defining a forest. In some states anarea once listed as a forest in the revenue records remains so even if it losesits entire vegetation. The Supreme Court, on the other hand, had decreed ina landmark judgment in 1996 that the term forest must be understood accord-ing to its “dictionary meaning”. Such confusion is unwarranted for a produc-tive and ecologically critical sector like forests. It is, therefore, time to formulatean unambiguous and universally accepted definition of forests to get a truepicture of the country’s forest resources.

Volume XXIV Number 105

MUMBAI | THURSDAY, 9 JANUARY 2020

What might 2020 hold for us at both theglobal level and in India? As I try to peerthrough the fog of uncertainty and insuf-

ficient knowledge, I am struck by the long shadowscast by the year just ended. 2019 was not a goodyear, either for global cooperation, the world econ-omy or the Indian economy. Let me share somethoughts on each of these.

Global political and economic cooperationAcross the entire spectrum of global cooperation,

2019 witnessed substantial deteri-oration. In large measure, thisreflected the cumulative impact ofUS President Donald Trump’s deci-sive and sustained policy shift since2017 in favour of unilateralism ininternational affairs — and awayfrom institutions, treaties and prac-tices of multilateral cooperation.Consider three examples.

First, in the domain of interna-tional trade, there are the well-known “trade wars” launched byTrump against China, Europe andsome other countries. These are stillrumbling on, taking their toll onglobal trade, investment and growth.The recent announcement of a prob-able “phase 1” agreement with China may help,though there is little clarity about how much andfor how long. Perhaps, as important for the long runis the American undermining of the Appellate Bodyof the World Trade Organization (WTO) for disputesettlement, often described as the “jewel in thecrown” of the institution. By systematically blockingappointments of replacements to the normal sev-en-judge membership of this body, the Trumpadministration finally ensured that membershipwas down to just one by December 11, 2019, therebyensuring that the minimum three-judge require-ment for panels for adjudicating trade disputes

between WTO members would no longer be met.In effect, the Appellate Body ceased to function,placing world trade in the unprecedented and dan-gerous situation of having no effective dispute set-tlement mechanism. The potent negative effectswill manifest in 2020 and beyond.

Second, the 2015 “Paris Agreement” on ClimateChange has thus far achieved modest results by wayof practical follow-up measures to curb global carbonemissions, which cause global warming, damagingclimate change. Again, the Trump administration

is a major culprit having given for-mal notice of unilateral US with-drawal in June 2017 and havingworked actively against the thrustof the agreement both throughnational policies and uncooperativeparticipation in annual UN climatesummits. The latest such summit,COP 25 in Madrid last month, end-ed without recording significantprogress. This despite the prolifer-ation of scientific reports pointingout ominous, ongoing and antici-pated consequences of carbonemissions and climate change. In

a nutshell, we seem to be well onour way to a disastrous 3°C plusincrease in global temperatures by

2100, despite the international agreement/aspirationto keep the rise below 2°C (preferably 1.5 °C).

Third, the most important global public good —world peace— came under increasing strain during2019 with the demise of the 1987 Intermediate-RangeNuclear Forces Treaty (between US and Russia) inAugust 2019, the loss of momentum to renew thecritical New START (Strategic Arms ReductionTreaty) treaty (expiring February 2021), the lack ofprogress with agreeing limits on North Korea’s nucle-ar weapons programme, and the sharply rising con-flict and tensions between Iran and the US (and herallies, Israel and Saudi Arabia). The US withdrew

unilaterally from the 2015 multi-country IranNuclear deal in May 2018 and ratcheted up severesanctions against Iran, and the American assassi-nation of Iran’s top general last week raised theprospect of a major West Asian conflict in 2020.

World EconomyIn 2019, world economic growth (at marketexchange rates) slowed markedly to 2.5 per cent,essentially because of a significant, synchronisedslowdown in three big economies. The growth ofthe $21-trillion US economy slowed to 2.4 per cent,that of $19-trillion European Union (EU) to 1.5 percent and $14-trillion China to 6.1 per cent. Together,this “big 3” account for over 60 per cent of worldgross domestic product (GDP). Major causes of theslowdown include: The waning of the tax-cut stim-ulus in the US, the major trade wars, high total debtin China and a sharp slackening in EU’s mainengine, Germany.

Despite anticipating continued deceleration inUS and China and little change in EU, the October2019 IMF World Economic Outlook foresees a smalluptick in world economic growth to 2.7 per cent in2020, mainly attributable to better expected per-formance in some large developing countries suchas Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia.With the sudden ramping up of the conflict in WestAsia in the last fortnight, these expectations nowlook too rosy. Depending on how the conflict andits ramifications evolve, it is quite possible thatglobal economic growth in 2020 may be even slowerthan in 2019.

The Indian economyIn the six quarters to September 2019 India’s eco-

nomic growth slumped from 8 per cent to 4.5 percent and the government now expects full fiscalyear 2019-20 growth to clock only 5 per cent, thelowest in a decade. (These official estimates mayover-estimate real growth, given trends in high fre-quency economic indicators, the much-discussedfrailties of the 2011-12 base national income seriesand the recently published research by former chiefeconomic adviser, 2014-18, Arvind Subramanian.)The underlying causes of the sharp slowdown arewidely debated. They probably include: Continuinghigh stress in the financial sector and high publicsector borrowings, which have together damped pri-vate investment and consumption; a falling shareof exports to GDP because of declining competitive-ness and failure to plug into global value chains; asharp slowdown in manufacturing; and major prob-lems in key service sectors such as telecom, aviationand electric power.

Even before the recent growth slump, the latestofficial data for employment and unemployment,for 2017-18, showed a very poor job situation, withless than half the working age population participatingin the labour force, high levels of youth unemploymentand widespread underemployment. This unhappysituation has almost certainly worsened because ofthe steep growth slowdown in the last two years.

The prospects for a swift rebound in the growth ofoutput and employment are not good, given the under-lying policy and institutional constraints. In 2020, itis likely that economic growth will remain in the orderof 5 per cent. It could be significantly lower if the con-flict in West Asia escalates seriously.

The writer is honorary professor at ICRIER and former chiefeconomic adviser to the Government of India. Views are personal

Something is surreal in the state of business inIndia, and nothing captures it better thanTuesday’s newspapers. The headlines were

dominated by report on the attack by armed goonstoo cowardly to show their faces against studentsat Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU). The turbu-lence of those photos stood in stark contrast to aposed snap of a group of grinning industrialists (allmen, all old) surrounding Prime Minister NarendraModi, recording a meeting called to discuss how tojog the economy out of its becalmed state.

Over the past few days, there hasbeen a clamour for Bollywoodcelebrities to speak out against theviolence at JNU, the deleterious con-sequences of the CitizenshipAmendment Act (CAA) and theimpending National PopulationRegister (the two issues are not con-nected but they have somehow mor-phed into a giant outcry against brutemajoritarianism against civil society).

Strange, though, that no onethought to ask why the businesscommunity has been seen but notheard. It has, after all, far betteraccess to India’s most powerfulman — Prime Minister Narendra Modi — than anyactor, writer, singer or dancer.

Since December 12 when the CAA was signedinto law and countrywide protests erupted, theprime minister has met with the business commu-nity, individually or in groups, at least three times.On December 20, he addressed the AssociatedChambers of Commerce and Industry; on January1, he held one-on-one meetings with 60entrepreneurs and business leaders; on January 6,he met another group of industry stalwarts.

The last meeting, then, was held just hours afterthe JNU assaults. Only one businessperson from thatgroup publicly expressed his concern, though it isunclear whether he voiced them to the prime min-ister mano-a-mano. That was Anand Mahindra, whomade an elliptical reference to “faith” in a tweet. Theothers who have gallantly aired their anxieties stoodoutside this charmed circle and even they mostlydeplored the violence in generic terms. Only HarshGoenka has been brave enough to refer to “religiousbushfires lit all over the country,” as direct a criticism

of the ruling party’s governanceagenda as you can get from the busi-ness community. And onlyNaushad Forbes has been a consis-tent exception to the amoral silenceof the business community throughhis writings.

Let’s give businesspeople whomet Mr Modi the benefit of thedoubt. Perhaps they privately point-ed out to the prime minister thatgratuitously attacking civil societyfor protesting in a democratic coun-try is unlikely to reassure investorsof any stripe? That the spectacle of

police manifestly responding topolitical orders rather than discharging their fidu-ciary duties is unsettling for those worried about thesecurity of their property?

Highly unlikely, if you judge by the alacrity withwhich the assembled audience at the Assocham meetacquiesced to the prime minister’s demand for moreenthusiastic applause — not once, but twice.

Did they perhaps advise him on the urgent needfor a predictable policy trajectory? That withdrawingover 80 per cent of currency in circulation three yearsago without warning was so problematic that its

impact is being felt today? That insisting on a year’sadvanced deadline for the most massive change thecountry’s indirect tax system has helped neitherthem nor his government’s revenue collections? Ormaybe that the muscular demand for a “strongrupee” is unsupportive for exporters, as is the slumpback into protectionism?

Possible, but improbable. The response from theAssocham meet suggests that the business commu-nity wants the government to stimulate the economynow that it is clear that a generous corporate tax cutin September hasn’t done the trick. Thus, onDecember 31, the last day of a deeply troubling year,Nirmala Sitharaman obliged with the announce-ment of a humdinger infrastructure investment planworth over ~100 trillion. No one yet knows wherethe money for all this will materialise, nor how themyriad structural bottlenecks (first stop: Land acqui-sition) will be cleared. No matter, it’s good optics ata time when the regime’s social agenda has hit ahurdle called civil society.

Still, the contrast with the halcyon days of 2014is noticeable. Then business leaders eagerly linedup to attend various investment jamborees — Makein India, Stand Up India, and what not — and heapextravagant praise on the prime minister, all of itobligingly disseminated on all TV channels. Nowthe meetings are held behind closed doors and thecontent of the discussions confidential. Whichmeans that even at their most diplomatic, businessleaders must have little good to say about the man-agement of the economy —even if the obvious linkbetween a divisive social agenda and the economyhas eluded them.

They may not really care much about the tra-jectory of Indian society; but they must surelyunderstand that shying away from speaking truthto power will hurt their businesses just as much.

AWashington Post story lastmonth revealed how senior USofficials had misled the American

public about the Afghanistan War, andhow the nearly two-decade-long wareffort was, in the words of one general,“devoid of a fundamentalunderstanding… (without) the foggiestnotion of what the US was doing there”.As the Taliban kept returning — andnow, it seems they will be at the tablewhatever the future for Afghanistan is— US officials kept declaring “progress

was being made”. A few years after theTaliban and Al Qaeda were pushed backin 2001 by the US and its allies in anoffensive launched in response to theSeptember 11 attack on the TwinTowers, Indian writer and mediaprofessional Taran Khan landed in war-scarred Kabul.

She would return several times overthe years. “Most of these (visits)… werefor assignments to work with Afghanmedia professional,” she writes in thebook under review. Over the course ofthese visits — some of which lastedonly weeks while others ran intomonths — Ms Khan discovered, whatshe calls, “the shadow city”. She wastold not to walk — the streets of Kabulwere not safe, more so for a foreigner,especially for a woman. But, she “foundthat walking offered a way to exhumehistory — a kind of bipedal archaeology— as well as an excavation of the

present”. The results of her wanderingsis this book.

Ms Khan — a close friend with whomI have walked in Berlin, Hamburg andDelhi — does notwalk in a straightline. The structureof the booksomewhatreplicates her styleof walking. There ishardly anychronology; thereare few dates bywhich you can mapher stay in theAfghan capital. Yes,she gives you adescription of her first arrival in Kabul:“When I first saw the city, it was in thethroes of another transformation. Thepopulation had almost doubled toaround 3 million, drawn by the promise

of peace and economic opportunities.”But there are other “bridges” — to useher own term — through which shekeeps arriving in Kabul in the course ofthe narrative.

Some of these are historic: Ms Khanclaims descent from Pathans, though itis unclear whether they were from

modernAfghanistan orPashtun-dominated areas inPakistan. HerKabuli friends,however, seemedhardly bothered bythis colonial-eradistinction: “Wepiss on the DurandLine, sister,” theytell her. Anotherbridge is her Baba,

her grandfather, who does notaccompany her to Kabul, but guides herin spirit with his encyclopaedicknowledge of Persian and Urduliterature. Other bridges are constructed

by friendships she strikes up with hercolleagues, neighbours, ex-jihadis,filmmakers, librarians, all of whom arelike horcruxes, repositories of somefragment of Kabul’s soul.

As a bibliophile, I found the chapteron Kabul’s books, “Written in the City”,the most appealing. “Reading was how Ilearned to inhabit Kabul, a large part ofhow I made myself at home there,” MsKhan writes, adding, “I began to readKabul like a story, cast in a script that isembossed on its alleys and stones.” Asshe soon realised, there were at least twoKabuls even in written accounts aboutthe city — one in western texts withwhich she was more familiar and theother in Persian and other books, towhich her Baba introduces her. Therewas yet another layer, an oral one:“while most Afghans cannot read orwrite, they are steeped in an oraltradition of storytelling”.

In this chapter, the reader also meetsHaideri Wojodi, one of the oldestemployers of Kabul’s heavily guardedpublic library. Reading Ms Khan’s

description of him, I thought of MrWojodi as a Borges of the Afghan capital:“He seemed like a deceptively frailguardian of Kabul’s literary legacy,bound to it with a deep belief: Thatwords are important through darkesttimes.” When Ms Khan asks him ifpeople visited the library even duringTaliban times, he replies: “Yes, peopleread even then, child.” The descriptionis at once poignant and heart-breaking.

The book is cyclical — the last chapterof the book is called “Returns”, like thefirst one. “The legend of Kabul beginswith a bridge, a road appearing on water,”she writes. “The same bridge is the path todeparting from the island. Returning toKabul and leaving it are not endings butstates of movement, of travel.” Ms Khan’stravels in the Afghan capital ended in2013; since then she has continued tomeet expatriate or refugee Afghans allover the world. Memories and old friendsare now her bridges to Kabul.

The reviewer's novel, Ritual, will be out in February

India Inc: Seen but not heard

Bridges to Kabul

BOOK REVIEWUTTARAN DAS GUPTA

Maintain balance between growth and financial stability

Don’t depend on MPC alone

SHADOW CITY: AWOMAN WALKSKABULAuthor: TaranKhan

Publisher:Vintage(Penguin)Price: ~499

Pages: 240

ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA

Shadows of the events in 2019 will loom large over the worldand India

The darkening sky

A PIECE OF MY MINDSHANKAR ACHARYA

SWOTKANIKA DATTA

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8 issues and insights mumbai | thursday 9 january 2020 ... · offer those improvements, have...

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