680e4e4d-4817-4afd-802a-3470f8848e39
DESCRIPTION
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EQU
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RESE
ARC
H RBC Dominion Securities Inc.Michael Harvey, P.Eng. (Analyst)(403) [email protected] Pardy, CFA (Co-HeadGlobal Energy Research)(416) [email protected]
Shailender Randhawa,CFA (Analyst)(403) [email protected] J. Friesen, CFA (Analyst)(403) [email protected]
April 16, 2014
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&PNet Asset Values Increase By 10% YoYSummaryOur primary tool for valuing oil and gas producers is discounted cash flow (Net Asset Value or NAV),which we believe best captures the value of oil and gas assets. In general, we expect producers thatdeliver the highest growth in NAVPS to exhibit the strongest stock price performance over time. Thisreport provides an overview of key 2013 performance metrics, with our coverage group delivering yearover year NAV growth (based on reserve disclosure released early April) averaging +10% (with significantvariability).
Report Highlights• Producers Delivered YoY NAVPS Growth Averaging +10%. On average, NAVs within the group
increased roughly 10% based on a constant price deck when including dividends (+6% ex dividends)as noted in Exhibit 1, with overall 2P reserve value growth of 23% offset by increased debt levels(+6%) and share dilution (+12%). Amongst oil-weighted names, Tamarack Valley (+58%) and Whitecap(+28%) posted strong NAV growth through a combination of accretive acquisitions and solid drillingprograms. From the gas-focused group Tourmaline (+24%), Peyto (+23%), Advantage (+22%) andBirchcliff (+21%) benefited from strong operational results, and in some cases positive reserverevisions.
• 2P Reserves Increase by 22% on Average, Mostly Driven by Drilling. On average the group increased2P reserves by 22%, driven primarily by organic drilling but augmented by a number of transactions.2013 FD&A of ~$19.00/boe was up from the 2012 average of ~$15/boe. When combined with averagefield netbacks of roughly $30.00/boe in 2013, recycle ratios map to 2.1x (versus 1.8x in 2012), with thestrongest recycles delivered by PLT, ERF and BIR. For a more fulsome assessment of capital efficienciesand decline, see our recent report here.
• Reserve Books Continue to Shift Toward Future Bookings, with 5 Years of Drilling Booked to FDC onAverage. Producers continued to layer on future development capital (FDC), up 14% in aggregate year-over-year as drilling locations were added to undeveloped categories. Producers’ proved developedproducing (PDP) components fell with the group and now average 35% of 2P (Exhibit 11), continuingthe trend of reserve books shifting toward future development. Producers now have roughly 5 yearsof investment (relative to 2014E cash flows) booked to FDC on average, with outliers being PPY atroughly 30 years and TET at less than 1 year.
• Engineers' Price Decks Remain Above the Strip. Reserve engineers’ price decks increased by 5%YoY (first 5 year average), resulting in most of our producers’ “Engineer NAV” estimates increasing.However as is typical, Engineer price decks remain considerably higher than the futures strip, withthis year’s evaluators’ decks roughly 15% higher than the average long term futures strip for gas prices(Exhibit 13). As a result of this variance, a material difference exists between NAVs calculated at thefutures strip (and RBC deck), versus engineering price decks.
• Balance Sheets Significantly Improved, Driven By Stronger Commodity Prices. Producers' balancesheets are significantly improved, driven largely by the recent strength in natural gas pricing. Whilemany factors go into lenders’ credit facility redetermination calculations, the change in year-over-yearPDP reserve value growth is a key driver of facility size adjustment. After taking into account currentfacility size and draw, we highlight CJ, PGF, ARX and BTE as producers with some of the more attractivefinancial flexibility within the group.
Investment ImplicationsIn our view, producers with the greatest exposure to plays with strong economics will show the mostsignificant NAV growth over time, which should then equate to stock price outperformance. Our topideas within the group include PEY, TOU, CR, NVA, CJ, TVE and WCP.
Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.
For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 27.
Table of Contents 2013 Total Returns: Intermediates Slightly Trailed the Index in 2013 ................................... 4
NAV Growth: 10% Average Increase YoY, but Highly Variable .............................................. 5 Gross Year-End Reserves Increase by 12% ............................................................................ 7 2P Reserves per Share up 12% ............................................................................................... 8
Reserve Booking Perspectives: Estimates and Assumptions ............................................... 11 Engineers’ Price Assumptions: Generally Above the Strip ................................................... 11 Undeveloped Reserves: How Much is Baked In? ................................................................. 11 Land & Facility Spending Averaged ~25% of Total Capex .................................................... 13 Undeveloped Land Positions................................................................................................ 14
2013 Operational Metrics – Profit Margins in Focus ........................................................... 15 FD&A Costs Averaged ~$19.00/boe ..................................................................................... 15 Realized Pricing and Netbacks ............................................................................................. 16 Total Cash Costs – Averaged ~$20.00/boe in 2012 ............................................................. 16 Operating Costs – Averaged ~$12.00/boe ........................................................................... 17 2013 Royalties – Averaged ~$8.00/boe ............................................................................... 18
Valuations – Well Within Historical Ranges ........................................................................ 19
Appendix I: Background Information on Reserve Classifications ........................................ 25 Resource Classification ........................................................................................................ 25 Reserves Classification ......................................................................................................... 26
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 2
Exhibit 1: Summary of 2013 Metrics and Ranking Table
2013 Metrics Rankings
2013 Recycle Reserves / FD Share ∆ ∆ in NAV TSX Total Return 2P Recycle Reserves / FD Share ∆ NAV TSX Total Return
2P FD&A Ratio PDP 2P Net Debt Growth * 1-yr 3-yr FD&A Ratio PDP 2P Growth 1-yr 3-yr
[$/boe] [x] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [#] [#] [#] [#] [#] [#] [#]
Advantage Oil & Gas AAV $7.99 1.9x 3% 7% 4% 22% 44% -54% 3 19 18 14 6 6 22
Argent Energy AET.un $23.99 1.7x 28% 4% 206% -23% -6% nmf 21 23 3 17 29 23 nmf
Arcan Resources ARN $34.79 1.7x -4% 1% -3% -1% -67% -30% 26 22 22 23 25 29 17
ARC Resources ARX $12.07 2.7x 2% 2% 36% 10% 27% 43% 10 7 19 21 14 8 10
Birchcliff Energy BIR $8.60 3.3x 8% 11% -2% 21% -3% -21% 4 3 10 12 7 19 13
Bonavista Energy BNP $11.03 2.4x 1% 4% 17% 9% 0% -18% 7 13 20 18 15 17 12
Baytex Energy BTE $18.28 2.4x 11% 6% 20% 8% 3% 70% 15 14 9 15 17 15 8
Crescent Point Energy CPG $20.22 2.6x 8% 4% 18% 9% 18% 16% 17 9 12 16 16 11 11
Crew Energy CR $9.65 2.9x -3% 27% 32% 18% -1% -56% 6 5 21 4 9 18 23
Enerplus ERF $6.15 5.1x 7% 14% 6% 6% 60% -32% 2 2 14 11 20 1 18
Freehold Royalties FRU $22.59 2.6x -6% -7% 8% -1% 6% 94% 20 10 25 26 24 14 5
Gear Energy GXE $17.81 2.5x 19% 20% 44% 4% nmf nmf 14 11 6 6 22 nmf nmf
Legacy Oil and Gas LEG $20.92 2.7x 6% 14% 38% 6% -11% -29% 18 6 16 10 19 25 15
Longview Oil LNV $31.45 1.1x -11% -1% 8% -3% 0% nmf 25 26 27 24 27 16 nmf
Long Run Exploration LRE $21.96 1.8x 11% 16% 54% 13% 10% -29% 19 21 8 8 13 13 16
Lightstream Resources LTS $65.55 0.8x -5% -5% 12% -24% -36% -62% 27 27 23 25 30 28 24
NuVista Energy NVA $13.18 2.0x -18% 31% 56% 19% 22% -52% 11 18 29 3 8 9 21
Peyto Exploration PEY $11.16 2.7x 12% 19% 43% 23% 46% 93% 8 8 7 7 5 4 6
Pengrowth Energy PGF nmf nmf -23% -9% -12% 6% 45% -38% nmf nmf 30 27 18 5 19
Parallel Energy PLT.un $2.74 10.3x 6% 3% 7% 5% 16% nmf 1 1 15 20 21 12 nmf
Perpetual Energy PMT nmf nmf -5% -17% 5% 25% -3% -74% nmf nmf 24 30 3 20 25
Paramount Resources POU $13.38 2.2x 20% 44% 60% 14% 22% 118% 12 17 5 2 12 10 4
Painted Pony Petroleum PPY $9.55 2.3x 40% 49% 199% 17% -34% 81% 5 15 2 1 10 27 7
Penn West Exploration PWT nmf nmf -12% -9% -5% -2% -11% -28% nmf nmf 28 28 26 26 14
Twin Butte Energy TBE $27.76 1.3x -9% -11% 84% 4% -4% 201% 24 25 26 29 23 22 3
Trilogy Energy TET $19.60 1.6x 3% 2% -3% 15% -4% 266% 16 24 17 22 11 21 2
TORC Oil & Gas TOG $24.93 2.3x 62% 8% 508% -3% -7% -42% 23 16 1 13 28 24 20
Tourmaline Oil TOU $11.84 2.4x 23% 24% 79% 24% 43% nmf 9 12 4 5 4 7 nmf
Tamarack Valley Energy TVE $24.66 1.9x 8% 3% 72% 58% 47% 47% 22 20 11 19 1 3 9
Whitecap Resources WCP $17.64 3.1x 7% 14% 17% 28% 55% 333% 13 4 13 9 2 2 1
Average $18.87 2.6x 6% 9% 54% 10% 9% 32%
* NAV growth adjusted for dividends paid during the year;
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, and RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 3
2013 Total Returns: Intermediates Slightly Trailed the Index in 2013 Following a loss in 2012, our coverage universe averaged 12% gains for the year, which compares to the broader S&P/TSX Energy Index which was up 14% over the same time period. Throughout the year WTI crude and Henry Hub natural gas were up by 7% and 26% respectively.
Exhibit 2: 2013 Stock Price Performance
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Jan
-13
Jan
-13
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Mar
-13
Ap
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Jul-
13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Sep
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
De
c-1
3
De
c-1
3
Re
lati
ve P
erf
orm
ance
WTI Henry Hub S&P/TSX Energy TR Index
Dec. 31, 2012:
WTI: $91.82/bbl
HH: $3.51/mmbtu
E&Ps: 3,477
Dec. 31, 2013:
WTI: $98.42/bbl
HH: $4.23/mmbtu
E&Ps: 3,950
7%
14%
26%
Source: Bloomberg, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Within our universe Enerplus (ERF) delivered the strongest overall 2013 performance, achieving the highest total return in our universe (60%) followed by Whitecap Resource (WCP), and Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE).
Exhibit 3: 2013 Total Return by Company
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
ERF
WC
P
TVE
PEY
PG
F
AA
V
TOU
AR
X
NV
A
PO
U
CP
G
PLT
.un
LRE
FRU
BTE
LNV
BN
P
CR
BIR
PM
T
TET
TBE
AE
T.u
n
TOG
LEG
PW
T
PPY LT
S
AR
N
20
13
To
tal
Re
turn
Average: 12%
Note: Excludes CJ & GXE Source: Bloomberg
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 4
NAV Growth: 10% Average Increase YoY, but Highly Variable Exhibit 4 shows our estimate of year-over-year changes in NAVPS (2013 vs 2012), independent of commodity price changes (i.e., run under the same price deck) and adjusted for dividends or distributions paid during the year to facilitate a comparison between ‘yield’ and ‘growth’. On average, our NAVPS estimates were up roughly 10% (6% when excluding dividends) with wide variability between -24% and+58%.
Gross Reserves Up YoY: Total reserves were generally up as producers more than offset any negative adjustments with new barrels. Acquisition focused producers Whitecap and Tamarack Valley led the group in YoY NAVPS growth, closely followed by resource-focused gas players such as TOU and PEY.
Generally, More NAV growth from gas focused players: As gas prices improved throughout the year stronger NAV growth was generally weighted to low cost operators with significant exposure to gas-weighted plays, such as Tourmaline Oil (Montney & Wilrich), Peyto Exploration (Cretaceous) and Advantage (Montney).
Net debt levels creep higher: In general, most producers experienced increasing debt levels throughout the year in order to fund development. Share issues were modest; equity financings accounted for a 12% year-over-year increase in average share count which is low versus prior years.
Exhibit 4: NAVPS Growth (After Adjustment for Dividends)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
TVE
WC
P
PM
T
TOU
PEY
AA
V
BIR
NV
A
CR
PPY TE
T
PO
U
LRE
AR
X
BN
P
CP
G
BTE
PG
F
LEG
ERF
PLT
.un
GX
E
TBE
FRU
AR
N
PW
T
LNV
TOG
AE
T.u
n
LTS
NA
V G
row
th Y
oY
20
13
vs.
20
12
a
Average: 10%
Source: RBC Capital Markets estimates
Exhibit 5 outlines the components of NAVPS on a company-by-company basis. In general, an increase in gross reserves (approximately 22%) was offset by an increase in net debt and outstanding shares, thereby resulting in a net average NAVPS increase of around 10% (inclusive of dividends) throughout the coverage universe.
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 5
Exhibit 5: Net Asset Value - Variance Table
Year Over Year Percent Change in Net Asset Value Components
2012 NAV Reserves Netbacks FDC/boe Reserves Value Net Debt FD Shares 2013 NAV NAV Change
($/sh) (∆ mmboe) (∆ $/boe) (∆ $/boe) (∆ $MM) (∆ $MM) (∆ MM sh) ($/sh) (%)
AAV $5.87 6% 9% 11% 27% 4% -2% $7.17 22%
AET.un $9.11 30% 2% -10% 53% 206% 25% $5.97 -23%
ARN $0.79 1% 13% 6% 15% -3% 0% $0.78 -1%
ARX $16.17 4% -5% -6% 8% 36% 2% $16.60 10%
BIR $10.49 16% 0% -2% 16% -2% 5% $12.72 21%
BNP $15.73 7% -4% 2% 10% 17% 3% $16.31 9%
BTE $50.64 9% 2% 9% -12% 20% 3% $52.02 8%
CPG $34.17 9% 1% -5% 12% 18% 5% $34.32 9%
CR $10.64 29% 12% 6% 24% 32% 1% $12.55 18%
ERF $19.91 16% -3% -4% 2% 6% 2% $19.96 6%
FRU $10.79 -5% 20% 100% 6% 8% 2% $9.04 -1%
GXE $5.27 17% 12% 23% 26% 44% -3% $5.48 4%
LEG $7.27 24% 4% 6% 24% 38% 9% $7.72 6%
LNV $12.39 -1% -6% 11% -10% 8% 0% $11.48 -3%
LRE $4.97 17% 17% 16% 25% 54% 1% $5.60 13%
LTS $10.13 -3% -8% 1% -7% 12% 2% $6.76 -24%
NVA $6.75 48% 8% 30% 44% 56% 13% $8.02 19%
PEY $14.11 19% -11% 5% 26% 43% 0% $16.48 23%
PGF $8.01 -7% 15% 19% 1% -12% 2% $8.03 6%
PLT.un $5.51 5% -4% 3% 2% 7% 2% $5.19 5%
PMT $1.10 -17% -2% 1% -5% 5% 0% $1.38 25%
POU $13.28 54% 50% -9% 66% 60% 7% $15.07 14%
PPY $11.10 52% -17% 4% 34% -199% 2% $13.02 17%
PWT $19.43 -7% 12% 13% -1% -5% 2% $18.23 -2%
TBE $3.32 21% 22% -21% 0% 84% 37% $3.25 4%
TET $8.14 8% 17% 28% 11% -3% 7% $8.95 15%
TOG $11.76 149% 10% -46% 137% -508% 130% $11.23 -3%
TOU $20.72 35% -4% -1% 38% 79% 8% $25.63 24%
TVE $3.58 67% 1% -11% 63% 72% 62% $5.65 58%
WCP $9.65 51% 10% 11% 53% 17% 33% $11.75 28%
Note: NAVs are calculated after-tax using the RBC price deck (Exhibit 6) and a discount rate of 8.5%. The NAVs include our estimate of land value and have been adjusted for balance sheet items Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Exhibit 6: RBC Commodity Price Deck
2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E+Edmonton Par CAD $/bbl $86.35 $93.40 $100.03 $98.58 $96.94AECO CAD $/mcf $2.38 $3.18 $4.88 $4.44 $4.79FX US $/CAD $ $1.00 $0.97 $0.89 $0.88 $0.90
Source: RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 6
Gross Year-End Reserves Increase by 12% 2P reserves at year-end 2013 were up 12% in aggregate for our coverage group relative to 2012 (or +22% on an average non-weighted basis), with additions primarily added organically. A&D activity accounted for a 3% decrease of the total 2P reserves, with Whitecap Resources being the most active acquirer in 2013 while Pengrowth and Penn West disposed of assets. Revisions were relatively muted, though significant positive revisions were realized by ARC, Crescent Point, Advantage and Birchcliff due to more efficient drilling techniques in the Montney and Bakken developments.
Exhibit 7: Reserve Migration and Metrics, Year-End 2013
2013 P+P Reserves Reconciliation Revisions % Organic
Opening Organic Add'ns Revisions Acq / Disp Prod'n Ending % of Opening Additions
Ticker (mmboe) (mmboe) (mmboe) (mmboe) (mmboe) (mmboe) P+P P+P
Advantage Oil & Gas AAV 268 40 13 -31 -7 283 5% 100%
Argent Energy AET.un 32 4 -3 11 -2 42 -10% 27%
Arcan Resources ARN 39 1 1 -1 -1 39 4% 100%
ARC Resources ARX 607 47 21 -7 -35 634 3% 100%
Birchcliff Energy BIR 318 63 2 -4 -10 370 1% 100%
Bonavista Energy BNP 372 42 -4 15 -27 399 -1% 74%
Baytex Energy BTE 292 63 -14 -2 -21 318 -5% 100%
Crescent Point Energy CPG 609 76 18 5 -44 664 3% 94%
Crew Energy CR 153 50 -2 6 -10 197 -1% 89%
Enerplus ERF 341 77 0 16 -32 401 0% 83%
Freehold Royalties FRU 24 2 0 0 -3 23 -1% 85%
Gear Energy GXE 13 4 0 0 -1 16 0% 100%
Legacy Oil and Gas LEG 94 16 3 11 -7 117 3% 59%
Longview Oil LNV 38 4 -2 0 -2 38 -4% 100%
Long Run Exploration LRE 83 20 -6 9 -9 98 -7% 68%
Lightstream Resources LTS 206 20 -8 -2 -17 199 -4% 100%
NuVista Energy NVA 94 59 1 -9 -6 139 2% 100%
Peyto Exploration PEY 392 109 -12 0 -22 468 -3% 100%
Pengrowth Energy PGF 512 65 0 -69 -31 477 0% nmf
Parallel Energy PLT.un 47 0 4 1 -3 50 8% 0%
Perpetual Energy PMT 75 13 -6 -13 -7 62 -8% 100%
Paramount Resources POU 87 63 -5 -3 -8 134 -5% 100%
Painted Pony Petroleum PPY 191 100 2 0 -3 290 1% 100%
Penn West Exploration PWT 676 43 5 -50 -49 625 1% nmf
Twin Butte Energy TBE 56 6 -3 15 -6 68 -5% 29%
Trilogy Energy TET 97 21 0 0 -13 105 0% 100%
TORC Oil & Gas TOG 19 9 0 22 -2 47 -2% 28%
Tourmaline Oil TOU 438 172 6 1 -27 590 1% 100%
Tamarack Valley Energy TVE 11 2 0 7 -1 19 1% 18%
Whitecap Resources WCP 87 20 0 32 -7 132 0% 39%
Total 6,272 1,211 13 -39 -413 7,043 0% 100%
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 7
2P Reserves per Share up 12% Reserves per share on a PDP, PUD, and 2P basis on average increased by 6%, 22%, and 12%, respectively. In the PDP case, reserves per share changes were slightly better than last year due to stronger organic growth and less equity dilution. In the 2P category, the highest growth was shown by PPY, POU and NVA, while the largest declines were seen by PMT, TBE, and PWT (largely due to dispositions).
Exhibit 8: PDP Reserves per Share Changes, 2013 vs. 2012
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
TOG
PPY
AE
T.u
n
TOU
PO
U
GX
E
PEY
LRE
BTE BIR
TVE
CP
G
WC
P
ERF
PLT
.un
LEG
TET
AA
V
AR
X
BN
P
CR
AR
N
LTS
PM
T
FRU
TBE
LNV
PW
T
NV
A
PG
F
PD
P P
er
Shar
e G
row
th Y
oY
(%)
a
Average: 6%
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Exhibit 9: PUD Reserves per Share Changes, 2013 vs. 2012
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
PO
U
PG
F
CR
NV
A
PPY
WC
P
GX
E
LRE
ERF
LEG
AR
N
TOU
AA
V
BIR
AE
T.u
n
BTE
PEY
PW
T
AR
X
PLT
.un
BN
P
CP
G
PM
T
LNV
LTS
TBE
FRU
TOG
TVE
PU
D P
er
Shar
e G
row
th Y
oY
(%)
a
Average: 22%
Note: Excludes TET & CJ Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 8
Exhibit 10: 2P Reserves per Share Changes, 2013 vs. 2012
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
PPY
PO
U
NV
A
CR
TOU
GX
E
PEY
LRE
WC
P
LEG
ERF
BIR
TOG
AA
V
BTE
CP
G
AE
T.u
n
BN
P
TVE
PLT
.un
AR
X
TET
AR
N
LNV
LTS
FRU
PG
F
PW
T
TBE
PM
T
2P
Pe
r Sh
are
Gro
wth
Yo
Y (%
)
a
Average: 12%
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
PDP bookings now comprise an estimated 35% of total reserves on average for the producers in our universe and have steadily declined during the past nine years. Producers with the highest percentage of PDP reserves tend to be the larger producers with ‘legacy’ assets, or those with more conservative booking practices (i.e. TET).
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 9
Exhibit 11: 2004-2012 PDP as % of 2P Reserves
PDP as % 2P Reserves
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
AAV 57% 55% 55% 52% 41% 22% 17% 20% 18% 17%
AET.un nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 27% 34%
ARN nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 29% 28%
ARX 63% 66% 66% 65% 56% 49% 43% 37% 33% 33%
BIR nmf 42% 31% 27% 19% 13% 15% 14% 17% 17%
BNP 66% 66% 62% 62% 59% 46% 45% 43% 40% 39%
BTE 36% 32% 28% 27% 29% 26% 24% 24% 21% 22%
CPG 61% 55% 57% 42% 40% 38% 35% 35% 35% 36%
CR 54% 50% 41% 49% 40% 32% 30% 27% 29% 22%
ERF 61% 58% 59% 55% 62% 67% 62% 56% 50% 47%
FRU nmf nmf nmf nmf 65% 63% 49% 63% 58% 59%
GXE nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 37% 36%
LEG nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 42% 40% 43% 40%
LNV nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 40% 39% 38% 34%
LRE nmf nmf nmf nmf 46% 35% 27% 33% 40% 38%
LTS nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 41% 38% 36% 39% 40%
NVA 68% 72% 66% 58% 55% 56% 48% 44% 32% 20%
PEY 55% 57% 58% 60% 60% 49% 43% 40% 40% 38%
PGF 65% 67% 66% 63% 62% 62% 58% 57% 46% 39%
PLT.un nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 92% 61% 64% 67%
PMT nmf nmf nmf nmf 43% 43% 41% 37% 30% 34%
POU nmf 35% 35% 45% 50% 50% 51% 51% 34% 28%
PPY nmf nmf nmf 14% 43% 42% 14% 7% 7% 6%
PWT 75% 72% 69% 62% 63% 62% 60% 54% 49% 48%
TBE nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 42% 39% 36% 37%
TET nmf 59% 60% 62% 60% 62% 63% 64% 66% 68%
TOG nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 59% 30% 45%
TOU nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 29% 25% 25% 21% 21%
TVE nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 33% 24% 31% 32%
WCP nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 54% 37% 39% 42% 40%
Avg 60% 56% 54% 50% 50% 45% 41% 39% 36% 35%
50%
45%41%
39%36% 35%
60%56%
54%50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Avg
PD
P a
s %
2P
Re
serv
es
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 10
Reserve Booking Perspectives: Estimates and Assumptions Canadian reserve booking practices are defined by National Instrument 51-101, which requires an annual reserve evaluation in compliance with the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluations Handbook (COGEH, see Appendix I for definitions) for producers with volumes of less than 100,000 boe/d. While the COGEH provides guidelines, evaluating reserves entails a significant degree of judgment, and as such, each evaluator will have a slightly different perspective on asset-specific reserves. Evaluators, also, report net present value estimates for reserves, which are highly dependent on future commodity price assumptions.
Engineers’ Price Assumptions: Generally Above the Strip Exhibits 12 & 13 show the price deck assumptions of the major evaluation firms. While near term figures are reasonable, both oil and natural gas futures contracts are changing hands at a significant discount relative to engineers’ price decks. Clearly, significantly lower than expected commodity prices can have a material effect to cash flows, therein underscoring the need for investors to adjust NAV estimates for prevailing commodity prices.
Exhibit 12: Crude Oil - Evaluator Price Curves
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
Edm
on
ton
Par
(C
$/b
bl)
GLJ McDaniel SprouleInSite AJM Futures StripRBC Base
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, and RBC Capital Markets estimates
Exhibit 13: Natural Gas - Evaluator Price Curves
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
Alb
ert
a P
lan
t G
ate
(C
$/m
cf)
a
GLJ McDaniel Sproule
InSite AJM Futures Strip
RBC Base
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, and RBC Capital Markets estimates
Undeveloped Reserves: How Much is Baked In? As ‘resource’ style assets have come to dominate the portfolios of many of the producers that we cover, undeveloped bookings now constitute the majority of reserves for roughly half of our coverage universe. All else being equal, we expect companies with larger components of future reserves ‘baked in’ to trade at lower multiples of 2P NAVPS.
Exhibit 15 shows the quantity of FDC included in the 2P case relative to 2014 capital spending, essentially illustrating how many years of development spending is included in base reserves, assuming investment levels are generally in line with cash flow. For example, NVA has approximately 4 years of future drilling (based on 2014E forecasted capital spending) within its year-end 2013 reserve report.
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 11
Exhibit 14: Undiscounted 2P Future Development Capital vs 2014E Cash Flow
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
PPY
AR
N
AA
V
BIR
PG
F
NV
A
CR
AE
T.u
n
PEY
LNV
PW
T
AR
X
TOU
TVE
LTS
BN
P
CP
G
ERF
PLT
.un
BTE
LEG
LRE
PO
U
PM
T
WC
P
TBE
TOG
GX
E CJ
FRU
TET
2P
FD
C /
20
14
E C
aah
Flo
w
a
Average: 4.4x
29.4x
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Exhibit 15: Undiscounted 2P Future Development Capital vs 2014E Capex
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0x
PPY
AR
N
BIR
PLT
.un
AA
V
PG
F
LNV
PEY
NV
A
PW
T
AE
T.u
n
AR
X
CR
CP
G
LTS
BTE
PM
T
LRE
WC
P
TOU
ERF
BN
P
TOG
TVE
LEG
TBE
GX
E CJ
PO
U
FRU
TET
2P
FD
C /
20
14
E C
ape
x
a
Average: 4.0x
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 12
Land & Facility Spending Averaged ~25% of Total Capex During 2013, operators spent approximately 25% of total capital on land and facilities, which was higher than the historical averages of 10–20%. As 2013 was a quiet year for land sales, the majority of the spending was on development and facility projects. Several companies including PWT, BIR and TOU spent a significant amount of capital on ongoing facility upgrades and expansion projects in 2013, suggesting that these percentages should fall in future years.
Exhibit 16: 2013 Land & Facility Spending
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
CJ
PW
T
AR
N
BIR
TOU
GX
E
TBE
LNV
AR
X
BTE
NV
A
LRE
LEG
BN
P
PO
U CR
FRU
PEY
TVE
PPY
TOG
AE
T.u
n
LTS
PM
T
WC
P
CP
G
ERF
TET
AA
V
PLT
.un
PG
F
% T
ota
l C
ape
x Sp
en
din
g
Land Facilities Combined Avg
Combined Avg: 25%
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 13
Undeveloped Land Positions Producers’ undeveloped land positions decreased by an average of 3% versus 2012, with notable increases realized by TVE (Sure Energy acquisition & Pembina Cardium farm-in), and WCP (various core-area acquisitions).
Although a larger land position is generally better, it is notable that, with current multizone stacked resource play development and down-spaced drilling, in many cases, drilling inventory is not linearly correlated to undeveloped acreage.
Exhibit 17: Undeveloped Land
Net Undeveloped Land
(000 acres)
AAV 50
AET.un 19
ARN 56
ARX 861
BIR 545
BNP 1,281
BTE 814
CPG 2,194
CR 755
ERF 740
FRU 790
GXE 60
LEG 389
LNV 169
LRE 878
LTS 924
NVA 453
PEY 299
PGF 686
PMT 1,480
POU 924
PPY 239
PWT 1,957
TBE 328
TET 379
TOG 645
TOU 1,342
TVE 221
WCP 258
Undeveloped Land YoY Change
-80% -55% -30% -5% 20% 45% 70%
TVE
WCP
TOG
TOU
LRE
BIR
PEY
ARX
CR
LEG
PWT
BNP
AET.un
PPY
LNV
FRU
TET
BTE
PMT
ERF
GXE
ARN
POU
LTS
TBE
NVA
CPG
PGF
AAV
Average: -3%
Note: Excludes PLT Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 14
2013 Operational Metrics – Profit Margins in Focus FD&A Costs Averaged ~$19.00/boe FD&A costs were around $19.00/boe on a 2P basis in 2013, up from ~$15.00/boe on average in 2012. As is typical gas producers were able to find reserves at lower cost (~$13/boe) while oil producers were slightly higher (~$20/boe).
Montney-focused natural gas-weighted producers showed the low FD&A costs in 2013, led by AAV, BIR, PPY, and CR. Recycle ratios averaged 2.1x for the group, with PLT, ERF, BIR, CPG and WCP generating the strongest metrics.
Exhibit 18: 2013 FD&A Costs and Recycle Ratios
2P FD&A Costs ($/boe)
$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00
LTS
ARN
LNV
TBE
TOG
TVE
AET.un
FRU
LRE
LEG
CPG
TET
BTE
GXE
WCP
POU
NVA
ARX
TOU
PEY
BNP
CR
PPY
BIR
AAV
ERF
PLT.un
Average: $18.87/boe
Oil Weighted AVG: $19.88
Gas Weighted AVG: $12.72
2P Recycle Ratio
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x
LTS
TBE
LNV
POU
NVA
LRE
TET
TVE
ARN
TOU
AET.un
BTE
GXE
TOG
AAV
PEY
BNP
PPY
FRU
CR
ARX
LEG
WCP
CPG
BIR
ERF
PLT.un
Average: 2.1x
Oil Weighted AVG: 2.3x
Gas Weighted AVG: 1.5x
Note: Tables exclude PMT, PGF & PWT Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 15
Realized Pricing and Netbacks Exhibit 19 illustrates revenue and corporate netbacks during 2013; domestic netbacks averaged approximately $31.25/boe. Not surprisingly, the best netbacks were achieved primarily from light oil-weighted producers—ARN, CPG and LTS —driven by strong average-crude pricing during the year relative to natural gas.
Exhibit 19: 2013 Cash Netbacks
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
AR
N
CP
G
LTS
LEG
FRU
TOG
WC
P
AE
T.u
n
TVE
LNV CJ
BTE
GX
E
LRE
PW
T
AR
X
ERF
TET
PG
F
TBE
PLT
.un
BIR CR
PEY
BN
P
TOU
PPY
NV
A
PO
U
PM
T
AA
V
$/b
oe
Field Netback Realized Pricing Avg. Pricing Avg. Netback
Avg. Pricing: $52.92/boe
Avg. Netback: $31.25/boe
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Total Cash Costs – Averaged ~$20.00/boe in 2012 Cash costs for our universe averaged $19.77/boe in 2013, comprising $12.13/boe in operating expenses, $1.53/boe in transportation, and $6.11/boe in G&A, interest, and other. PEY remains the lowest-cost producer (as measured by total cash costs) in our coverage group, followed by AAV, TOU and BIR.
Exhibit 20: 2013 Total Cash Costs For Domestic Producers
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
CJ
AR
N
AE
T.u
n
TBE
LNV
LEG
PW
T
LTS
GX
E
PG
F
PO
U
BTE
PM
T
LRE
TOG
TVE
PLT
.un
CP
G
NV
A
FRU
ERF
WC
P
TET
CR
AR
X
PPY
BN
P
BIR
TOU
AA
V
PEY
$/b
oe
Op Costs Transport G&A, Interest, Cash Tax
Average Cash Costs: $19.77/boe
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 16
Operating Costs – Averaged ~$12.00/boe Operating costs for our universe averaged $12.13/boe in 2013, which was relatively flat versus 2012. Operating costs are day-to-day expenses related to maintaining production such as labour, chemicals, and power; they can vary greatly depending on product (gas, oil and sour percentage) geographic location, and tend to be higher in areas with 1) primarily oil production and 2) in remote areas farther from facilities and infrastructure thereby increasing transportation costs.
Exhibit 21: 2013 Operating Costs
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
CJ
TBE
LNV
AE
T.u
n
AR
N
PW
T
PG
F
GX
E
LEG
LRE
BTE LTS
TVE
TOG
NV
A
CP
G CR
PM
T
TET
ERF
WC
P
AR
X
PPY
PO
U
BN
P
PLT
.un
FRU
BIR
TOU
AA
V
PEY
20
13
Op
era
tin
g C
ost
s ($
/bo
e)
Average: $12.13/boe
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 17
2013 Royalties – Averaged ~$8.00/boe 2013 royalties averaged approximately $8.01/boe (14% of revenue), ranging from ~$1.00/boe for heavily gas-weighted producers such as Advantage to approximately $17.57/boe (23% of revenue) for AET’s oil production.
Since royalties are a function of commodity prices, well productivity, high-rate oil producers are typically burdened with the highest royalty rate, whereas low-rate gas producers (and producers that can take advantage of drilling holidays) enjoy the lowest rates.
Exhibit 22: 2013 Royalties
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
AE
T.u
n
AR
N
GX
E
CP
G
TBE
LEG
LNV
BTE
TOG
PW
T
ERF
LTS
PLT
.un
PG
F CJ
CR
WC
P
AR
X
LRE
TVE
TET
BN
P
NV
A
BIR
PM
T
PPY
TOU
FRU
PEY
PO
U
AA
V
20
13
Ro
yalt
ies
($/b
oe
)
Average: $8.01/boe
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 18
Valuations – Well Within Historical Ranges Exhibit 23 outlines five-year P/NAV and EV/DACF trading multiples for the Junior and Intermediate space.
Current forward-year EV/DACF multiples average 6.8x, which is below than the 5-year average (7.1x) but within historical ranges.
Current P/NAV multiples (Futures Strip) are 1.5x, which is in line the 5-year historical P/NAV multiple average of 1.5x.
It’s notable that even despite the recent significant increase in stock prices, valuations have remained largely constant (or gotten cheaper) on a P/NAV and EV/DACF basis. This has in large part been driven by the recent (and significant) increase in natural gas pricing.
Exhibit 23: Historical P/NAV and EV/DACF Multiples
0.5x
0.7x
0.9x
1.1x
1.3x
1.5x
1.7x
1.9x
2.1x
2.3x
2.5x
Mar
-08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
De
c-0
8
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
De
c-0
9
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
De
c-1
0
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
De
c-1
1
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
De
c-1
2
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Mar
-14
P /
NA
V (
2P
, Fu
ture
s St
rip
)
a
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
EV /
DA
CF
(fw
d y
ear
)
a
P/NAV EV/DACF Series3 Series4
0.5x
0.7x
0.9x
1.1x
1.3x
1.5x
1.7x
1.9x
2.1x
2.3x
2.5x
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08
Dec-0
8
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep-
09
Dec-0
9
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec-1
0
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
Dec-1
1
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep-
12
Dec-1
2
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep-
13
Dec-1
3
Mar
-14
P / N
AV (2
P, Fu
ture
s Stri
p)
a
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
EV /
DACF
(fwd
year
)
a
P/NAV EV/DACF Series3 Series4
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 19
Exhibit 24: Comparative Data – Ratings Price Targets and Valuation Multiples
Ratings and Targets Net Asset Value Cash Flow Multiples Current Capitalization(C$ millions except per share) Canadian RBCCM NYMEX Futures Price EV / DACF
Cdn Market Target Current Implied Price Deck Price Deck to FD CFPS incl. Hedges ex. HedgesTicker Exchange Analyst Price Price Rating Risk Yield Return NAV P / NAV Tgt / NAV NAV P / NAV Tgt / NAV 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E
Juniors: < 15,000 boe/dArcan Resources ARN TSX-V SR $0.29 $0.50 SP Spec 0.0% 72.4% $0.78 0.4x 0.6x $0.18 1.6x 2.8x 0.8x 0.9x 0.7x 6.0x 7.2x 6.4x 5.9x 5.8x 6.0xArgent Energy AET.un TSX SR $2.77 $3.75 SP Spec 37.9% 73.3% $5.97 0.5x 0.6x $4.93 0.6x 0.8x 7.7x 3.3x 3.7x 6.8x 6.7x 7.5x 6.6x 6.0x 6.7xCardinal Energy CJ TSX SR $15.51 $18.00 O -- 4.2% 20.2% $14.33 1.1x 1.3x $13.54 1.1x 1.3x 12.0x 6.7x 7.0x nmf 6.4x 6.3x nmf 6.3x 6.3xDonnycreek Energy DCK TSX-V SR $2.04 $3.50 O Spec 0.0% 71.6% $2.98 0.7x 1.2x $2.83 0.7x 1.2x nmf 3.8x 2.1x nmf 4.0x 2.3x 25.3x 4.0x 2.3xGear Energy GXE TSX MF $4.48 $5.50 O Spec 0.0% 22.8% $3.55 1.3x 1.5x $3.08 1.5x 1.8x 5.0x 4.1x 3.4x 7.5x 3.1x 2.8x 8.3x 3.3x 3.0xKelt Exploration KEL TSX MH $12.90 $15.00 O -- 0.0% 16.3% $6.32 2.0x 2.4x $5.67 2.3x 2.6x 29.8x 12.4x 11.1x nmf 12.7x 11.1x nmf 12.7x 11.1xLongview Oil LNV TSX MF $6.56 $6.00 SP -- 7.3% -1.2% $10.11 0.6x 0.6x $9.45 0.7x 0.6x 3.6x 4.9x 4.1x 6.2x 6.4x 5.5x 6.3x 6.5x 5.6xManitok Energy MEI TSX-V SR $2.46 $3.50 O Spec 0.0% 42.3% $1.95 1.3x 1.8x $1.84 1.3x 1.9x 4.2x 2.5x 1.6x 6.0x 3.2x 2.1x 5.7x 2.7x 2.2xPainted Pony Petroleum PPY TSX MH $11.35 $14.00 O Spec 0.0% 23.3% $13.02 0.9x 1.1x $10.92 1.0x 1.3x 12.0x 12.5x 10.1x 21.7x 14.6x 11.9x 21.7x 12.9x 11.8xParallel Energy PLT.un TSX SR $4.35 $5.00 SP Spec 13.8% 28.7% $5.19 0.8x 1.0x $4.22 1.0x 1.2x 5.5x 4.9x 5.1x 9.2x 7.8x 8.0x 9.3x 7.5x 8.0xSantonia Energy STE TSX MH $1.64 $1.50 SP -- 0.0% -8.5% $2.24 0.7x 0.7x $1.94 0.8x 0.8x 6.4x 5.9x 6.1x 9.2x 6.5x 6.9x 9.1x 6.5x 6.9xStorm Resources SRX TSX-V MH $5.38 $6.50 O Spec 0.0% 20.8% $2.01 2.7x 3.2x $1.52 3.5x 4.3x 13.5x 9.7x 7.6x 21.8x 10.5x 8.3x 21.7x 9.7x 8.3xTamarack Valley Energy TVE TSX-V SR $5.79 $7.00 O Spec 0.0% 20.9% $5.05 1.1x 1.4x $4.52 1.3x 1.5x 3.5x 4.6x 3.8x 9.3x 5.2x 4.2x 8.8x 4.8x 4.2xTORC Oil & Gas TOG TSX SR $13.15 $14.00 O Spec 4.1% 10.6% $11.23 1.2x 1.2x $10.56 1.2x 1.3x 6.7x 6.2x 6.1x 15.0x 6.6x 6.5x 15.0x 6.6x 6.5xAverage: < 15,000 boe/d 4.8% 29.5% 1.1x 1.3x 1.3x 1.7x 8.5x 5.9x 5.2x 10.8x 7.2x 6.4x 12.0x 6.8x 6.3x
Intermediates: < 50,000 boe/dAdvantage Oil & Gas AAV TSX/NYSE MH $6.00 $6.50 SP -- 0.0% 8.3% $7.17 0.8x 0.9x $5.27 1.1x 1.2x 9.1x 6.6x 5.1x 12.8x 8.2x 6.5x 12.9x 7.2x 6.1xBirchcliff Energy BIR TSX MH $11.92 $13.00 SP -- 0.0% 9.1% $12.72 0.9x 1.0x $10.04 1.2x 1.3x 6.0x 5.7x 5.0x 12.2x 7.4x 6.5x 12.2x 7.4x 6.5xCrew Energy CR TSX MH $11.49 $15.00 O -- 0.0% 30.5% $11.88 1.0x 1.3x $10.21 1.1x 1.5x 4.5x 7.6x 6.2x 9.9x 8.9x 7.5x 9.1x 7.5x 7.5xLegacy Oil and Gas LEG TSX SR $8.13 $9.00 O -- 0.0% 10.7% $7.72 1.1x 1.2x $6.83 1.2x 1.3x 3.4x 3.5x 3.3x 6.2x 4.9x 4.5x 6.0x 4.6x 4.5xLightstream Resources LTS TSX MH $6.34 $7.00 SP -- 7.6% 18.0% $6.76 0.9x 1.0x $5.45 1.2x 1.3x 1.7x 1.9x 2.2x 4.6x 4.4x 4.4x 4.5x 4.4x 4.4xLong Run Exploration LRE TSX SR $5.37 $6.50 SP Spec 7.5% 28.5% $5.56 1.0x 1.2x $4.61 1.2x 1.4x 2.9x 2.5x 2.3x 4.6x 4.0x 3.3x 4.6x 3.4x 3.3xNuVista Energy NVA TSX MH $10.66 $12.00 O -- 0.0% 12.6% $8.02 1.3x 1.5x $6.90 1.5x 1.7x 11.4x 9.3x 7.9x 19.7x 10.7x 9.3x 18.1x 10.6x 9.3xParamount Resources POU TSX MH $55.67 $55.00 SP -- 0.0% -1.2% $15.06 3.7x 3.7x $13.30 4.2x 4.1x 51.6x 19.1x 10.3x nmf 18.2x 10.6x nmf 18.0x 10.6xPerpetual Energy PMT TSX SR $1.87 $1.75 SP Spec 0.0% -6.4% $1.38 1.4x 1.3x $0.94 2.0x 1.9x 3.0x 2.4x 2.5x 7.7x 4.3x 4.4x 8.3x 4.4x 4.6xSurge Energy SGY TSX SR $6.79 $7.00 SP -- 8.0% 11.0% $6.96 1.0x 1.0x $6.32 1.1x 1.1x 5.5x 4.6x 4.6x 11.1x 6.4x 5.8x 10.5x 6.0x 5.7xTrilogy Energy TET TSX MH $29.64 $33.00 O -- 1.4% 12.8% $8.95 3.3x 3.7x $8.22 3.6x 4.0x 11.9x 10.7x 8.9x 14.2x 11.8x 10.1x 14.0x 11.8x 10.1xTwin Butte Energy TBE TSX MF $2.42 $2.75 SP -- 7.9% 21.6% $2.78 0.9x 1.0x $2.31 1.0x 1.2x 4.4x 3.9x 3.0x 7.9x 5.0x 3.8x 10.4x 6.3x 4.6xVermilion Energy VET TSX GP $69.80 $78.00 SP -- 3.7% 15.4% $40.36 1.7x 1.9x $36.12 1.9x 2.2x 9.7x 8.5x 7.5x 11.6x 9.6x 8.2x 11.5x 9.5x 8.2xWhitecap Resources WCP TSX SR $13.51 $16.00 O -- 5.0% 23.5% $10.41 1.3x 1.5x $9.50 1.4x 1.7x 6.9x 6.0x 5.2x 9.3x 7.4x 5.9x 9.0x 6.6x 5.6xAverage: < 50,000 boe/d 2.9% 13.9% 1.4x 1.6x 1.7x 5.6x 9.4x 6.6x 5.3x 10.1x 7.9x 6.5x 10.1x 7.7x 6.5x
Intermediates: > 50,000 boe/dARC Resources ARX TSX MH $32.45 $34.00 O -- 3.7% 8.5% $16.60 2.0x 2.0x $14.40 2.3x 2.4x 10.7x 9.5x 9.5x 12.5x 10.2x 10.2x 12.7x 9.8x 10.3xBaytex Energy BTE TSX/NYSE MF $45.66 $52.00 O -- 5.8% 19.7% nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf 8.6x 6.4x 6.2x 9.9x 7.8x 6.7x 9.9x 7.8x 6.7xBonavista Energy BNP TSX MH $17.13 $18.50 SP -- 4.9% 12.9% $16.31 1.1x 1.1x $14.19 1.2x 1.3x 5.8x 5.9x 5.4x 8.7x 7.6x 7.0x 8.4x 6.7x 6.7xCrescent Point Energy CPG TSX MH $43.13 $50.00 O -- 6.4% 22.3% $34.32 1.3x 1.5x $31.59 1.4x 1.6x 7.8x 7.5x 7.7x 9.0x 8.3x 8.5x 8.7x 8.1x 8.3xEnerplus ERF TSX/NYSE GP $23.23 $25.00 O -- 4.6% 12.3% $19.96 1.2x 1.3x $14.41 1.6x 1.7x 5.3x 5.2x 4.9x 7.7x 6.3x 5.9x 8.0x 6.1x 5.8xPengrowth Energy PGF TSX/NYSE GP $6.89 $7.50 SP -- 7.0% 15.8% $8.03 0.9x 0.9x $6.42 1.1x 1.2x 6.5x 7.3x 5.8x 8.1x 9.4x 8.2x 7.4x 7.4x 7.1xPenn West Exploration PWT TSX/NYSE GP $9.87 $12.00 SP -- 5.7% 27.3% $18.23 0.5x 0.7x $14.20 0.7x 0.8x 4.4x 4.8x 4.7x 6.5x 6.7x 6.6x 6.5x 6.4x 6.6xPeyto Exploration PEY TSX MH $38.65 $40.00 O -- 2.5% 6.0% $16.96 2.3x 2.4x $13.74 2.8x 2.9x 11.0x 9.3x 7.6x 14.3x 10.5x 8.5x 14.7x 8.9x 8.4xTourmaline Oil TOU TSX MH $54.52 $65.00 O -- 0.0% 19.2% $26.06 2.1x 2.5x $23.09 2.4x 2.8x 16.0x 9.2x 7.0x 22.3x 10.0x 7.6x 23.6x 9.6x 7.5xAverage: > 50,000 boe/d 4.5% 16.0% 1.4x 1.5x 1.7x 1.8x 8.4x 7.2x 6.5x 11.0x 8.5x 7.7x 11.1x 7.9x 7.5x
Average 4.0% 20.3% 1.3x 1.5x 1.6x 1.8x 8.9x 6.5x 5.5x 10.6x 7.8x 6.8x 11.0x 7.4x 6.7x
Non-Standard Business ModelsFreehold Royalties FRU TSX SR $24.44 $25.00 SP -- 6.9% 9.2% $9.04 2.7x 2.8x $8.57 2.9x 2.9x nmf 11.5x 12.3x 13.7x 12.0x 12.7x 13.7x 12.0x 12.7x
! = Restricted
Average: Oil-Weighted 5.5% 21.2% 1.0x 1.2x 1.2x 1.4x 5.2x 5.2x 5.0x 8.1x 6.7x 6.2x 8.2x 6.5x 6.2x
Average: Balanced 7.3% 29.7% 1.3x 1.6x 1.5x 1.8x 6.2x 5.9x 5.0x 8.9x 7.4x 6.5x 8.5x 6.6x 6.2x
Average: Gas-Weighted 0.8% 13.7% 1.6x 1.8x 1.9x 2.1x 13.3x 8.7x 6.9x 11.6x 9.7x 7.9x 13.5x 9.2x 7.9x
Notes: 1. MH = Michael Harvey, MF = Mark Friesen, GP = Greg Pardy, (416) 842-7848, [email protected], SR = Shailender Randhawa 2. AAV and POU EV multiples adjusted for equity ownerships.
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates, and Thomson One
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 20
Exhibit 25: Comparative Data – Capitalization, Leverage, Liquidity and Ownership
Current Capitalization Leverage Liquidity Q2/14E Share OwnershipFD Shares Mkt Net Debt YE Net Debt Bank Wkg Cap Term Conv Bank % % Float
O/S Cap Debt EV to EV to Cash Flow Debt Deficit Notes Debs Facility Drawn Drawn Mgmt & Strategic ValueMM $MM $MM $MM % 2013A 2014E 2015E $MM $MM $MM $MM $MM (ex. W.C.) (inc. W.C.) Directors Holders Float $MM
Juniors: < 15,000 boe/dArcan Resources 98 $28 $335 $364 92% 8.0x 10.4x 8.7x $164 $0 $0 $171 $190 86% 86% 5% nmf 95% $27Argent Energy 64 $178 $282 $460 61% 4.4x 5.1x 6.1x $120 $17 $0 $145 $168 72% 82% 1% nmf 99% $175Cardinal Energy 39 $598 -$8 $590 nmf 0.9x 0.0x nmf $0 -$8 $0 $0 $125 0% nmf 13% nmf 87% $518Donnycreek Energy 57 $116 $2 $118 2% nmf 0.3x 0.1x $0 $2 $0 $0 $0 0% 19489% 17% 12% 72% $83Gear Energy 58 $261 $74 $335 22% 2.0x 0.4x 0.6x $65 $9 $0 $0 $75 87% 98% 18% 0% 82% $215Kelt Exploration 112 $1,451 -$139 $1,311 nmf nmf nmf nmf $0 -$139 $0 $0 $100 0% nmf 22% nmf 78% $1,138Longview Oil 47 $308 $127 $435 29% 2.1x 2.4x 2.1x $118 $10 $0 $0 $200 59% 64% 1% 20% 79% $243Manitok Energy 77 $190 $38 $229 17% 0.9x 0.7x 0.5x $22 $17 $0 $0 $105 21% 37% 9% nmf 91% $174Painted Pony Petroleum 96 $1,093 $62 $1,155 5% 0.9x 1.3x 1.3x $46 $16 $0 $0 $125 37% 50% 7% nmf 93% $1,018Parallel Energy 55 $241 $230 $472 49% 5.7x 4.5x 4.5x $166 $5 $0 $59 $209 80% 82% 6% nmf 94% $226Santonia Energy 103 $169 $15 $184 8% 1.4x 0.8x 0.9x $8 $7 $0 $0 $100 8% 15% 9% 19% 73% $123Storm Resources 100 $537 $21 $558 4% 0.5x 0.6x 0.7x $19 $1 $0 $0 $65 30% 32% 14% nmf 86% $460Tamarack Valley Energy 63 $363 $37 $400 9% 2.2x 0.5x 0.5x $27 $10 $0 $0 $103 26% 36% 7% nmf 93% $339TORC Oil & Gas 93 $1,228 $128 $1,356 9% 1.6x 0.5x 0.4x $55 $74 $0 $0 $350 16% 37% 12% 24% 64% $787Average: < 15,000 boe/d 26% 2.6x 2.1x 2.2x 37% 1676%
Intermediates: < 50,000 boe/dAdvantage Oil & Gas 181 $1,089 $193 $1,282 15% 3.5x 1.8x 1.6x $62 $49 $0 $82 $300 21% 37% 2% nmf 98% $1,068Birchcliff Energy 161 $1,919 $485 $2,404 20% 2.6x 1.6x 1.3x $425 $60 $0 $0 $600 71% 81% 7% 25% 68% $1,313Crew Energy 130 $1,489 $285 $1,774 16% 2.3x 1.8x 1.6x $99 $40 $146 $0 $430 23% 32% 6% nmf 94% $1,402Legacy Oil and Gas 159 $1,292 $694 $1,987 35% 2.4x 1.8x 1.6x $454 $32 $0 $0 $660 69% 74% 9% nmf 91% $1,170Lightstream Resources 214 $1,354 $1,979 $3,333 59% 3.4x 3.0x 3.0x $861 $177 $935 $6 $1,300 66% 80% 6% nmf 94% $1,279Long Run Exploration 150 $808 $473 $1,281 37% 2.0x 1.6x 1.2x $445 $29 $0 $0 $575 77% 82% 4% nmf 96% $773NuVista Energy 142 $1,515 $77 $1,592 5% 0.7x 1.0x 1.3x $27 $50 $0 $0 $240 11% 32% 6% 22% 72% $1,092Paramount Resources 104 $5,769 $1,387 $7,156 19% 15.8x 5.2x 2.8x $325 $251 $811 $0 $600 54% 96% 53% nmf 47% $2,727Perpetual Energy 150 $280 $386 $667 58% 7.1x 3.1x 3.0x $62 $8 $0 $168 $110 57% 64% 28% nmf 72% $202Surge Energy 178 $1,211 $377 $1,587 24% 2.6x 1.7x 1.5x $345 $32 $0 $0 $470 73% 80% 5% nmf 95% $1,156Trilogy Energy 132 $3,926 $694 $4,620 15% 2.2x 2.0x 2.0x $334 $66 $295 $0 $650 51% 61% 34% 14% 52% $2,032Twin Butte Energy 255 $617 $317 $934 34% 2.3x 1.5x 1.0x $252 $64 $0 $0 $400 63% 79% 3% 0% 97% $598Vermilion Energy 99 $6,920 $677 $7,597 9% 1.1x 1.3x 0.9x $420 -$67 $222 $0 $950 44% 37% 8% nmf 93% $6,401Whitecap Resources 245 $3,315 $760 $4,075 19% 1.4x 1.3x 0.9x $742 $18 $0 $0 $1,000 74% 76% 4% nmf 96% $3,176Average: < 50,000 boe/d 26% 3.5x 2.0x 1.7x 54% 65%
Intermediates: > 50,000 boe/dARC Resources 319 $10,336 $1,035 $11,372 9% 1.2x 1.0x 1.0x $130 $110 $795 $0 $1,040 12% 23% 1% nmf 99% $10,213Baytex Energy 167 $7,612 $1,406 $9,019 16% 1.2x 1.3x 1.2x $475 -$221 $1,152 $0 $1,000 48% 25% 3% 0% 97% $7,392Bonavista Energy 209 $3,584 $1,047 $4,631 23% 2.5x 1.9x 1.7x $177 $78 $792 $0 $600 30% 43% 12% nmf 88% $3,152Crescent Point Energy 402 $17,317 $2,116 $19,433 11% 1.0x 1.0x 1.1x $570 $359 $1,188 $0 $2,100 27% 44% 1% nmf 99% $17,070Enerplus 199 $4,615 $1,156 $5,771 20% 1.7x 1.3x 1.1x $307 $126 $763 $0 $1,000 31% 43% 1% nmf 99% $4,569Pengrowth Energy 512 $3,526 $1,594 $5,121 31% 2.7x 3.7x 3.3x $160 -$126 $1,371 $237 $1,300 12% 3% 2% nmf 99% $3,473Penn West Exploration 479 $4,730 $2,886 $7,616 38% 2.8x 2.6x 2.6x $757 $201 $1,938 $0 $3,000 25% 32% 1% nmf 99% $4,674Peyto Exploration 154 $5,939 $846 $6,786 12% 2.2x 1.5x 1.2x $505 $72 $270 $0 $1,000 50% 58% 6% nmf 94% $5,562Tourmaline Oil 210 $11,474 $599 $12,073 5% 1.6x 0.6x 0.3x $357 $243 $0 $0 $900 40% 67% 18% nmf 82% $9,365Average: > 50,000 boe/d 18% 1.9x 1.7x 1.5x 31% 37%
Average 24% 2.8x 2.0x 1.8x 42% 610%
Non-Standard Business ModelsFreehold Royalties 69 $1,678 $156 $1,834 9% 0.4x 0.9x 0.9x $158 -$2 $0 $0 $210 75% 74% 1% nmf 99% $1,655
! = Restricted
Average: Oil-Weighted 29% 2.4x 2.1x 1.9x 57% 62%
Average: Balanced 24% 2.3x 2.2x 2.2x 34% 42%
Average: Gas-Weighted 13% 2.9x 1.5x 1.2x 30% 1435%
Notes: 1. Net Debt includes bank debt, working capital deficit/(surplus), senior notes & convertible debentures
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates, and Thomson One
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 21
Exhibit 26: Comparative Data – Production
Production Natural Gas EV / Production Debt-Adjustedmboe/d Weighting $ / boed Percent Hedged Production Growth Prod'n per FD Share Chg.
2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 12A/11A 13A/12A 14E/13A 15E/14E 12A/11A 13A/12A 14E/13A 15E/14E
Juniors: < 15,000 boe/dArcan Resources 3.8 3.5 3.6 2% 4% 4% $92,424 $103,358 $102,522 69% 23% 38% -15% -9% 1% nmf -12% -11% 1%Argent Energy 5.6 6.0 5.5 31% 30% 30% $74,158 $75,291 $85,664 66% 58% nmf 114% 7% -8% nmf -9% -6% -12%Cardinal Energy 1.4 6.4 6.5 4% 10% 10% $414,413 $89,137 $83,305 13% 0% nmf 392% 368% 2% nmf 196% 38% 6%Donnycreek Energy 0.4 1.8 3.1 50% 47% 47% $261,339 $70,937 $39,818 0% 0% nmf nmf 360% 77% 252% 132% 213% 78%Gear Energy 4.1 5.0 6.1 7% 3% 2% $68,529 $47,570 $43,412 34% 0% 51% 17% 23% 21% nmf 8% 44% 10%Kelt Exploration 4.7 11.0 14.1 79% 72% 72% $270,583 $127,817 $101,664 9% 0% 2% 33% 135% 28% nmf 17% 71% 15%Longview Oil 6.0 6.2 6.1 20% 18% 16% $74,058 $73,694 $76,051 32% 0% -1% -5% 5% -3% -12% -7% 0% -3%Manitok Energy 4.0 6.0 7.5 50% 44% 42% $56,336 $40,495 $32,616 68% 20% 246% 67% 50% 25% 165% 34% 31% 24%Painted Pony Petroleum 8.7 13.0 15.2 82% 87% 87% $130,889 $91,806 $79,918 38% 6% 56% 32% 50% 17% 33% -3% 35% 11%Parallel Energy 7.1 7.1 7.2 34% 34% 34% $65,345 $65,351 $64,442 31% 1% 118% 22% -1% 1% -23% 12% 0% 1%Santonia Energy 4.3 4.4 4.9 76% 85% 88% $45,708 $43,242 $39,704 1% 0% -20% -64% 4% 10% -33% -37% 10% 11%Storm Resources 3.6 6.4 8.0 73% 78% 78% $138,489 $89,892 $73,230 38% 0% 316% 61% 75% 26% 27% 54% 43% 14%Tamarack Valley Energy 3.3 5.4 6.5 42% 40% 40% $110,035 $74,835 $63,405 32% 3% 103% 51% 65% 20% 2% 11% 16% 14%TORC Oil & Gas 6.1 10.3 10.7 18% 14% 14% $222,850 $130,492 $123,391 42% 3% nmf 375% 68% 4% nmf 60% 12% 6%Average: < 15,000 boe/d 41% 40% 40% $144,654 $80,280 $72,082 34% 8% 91% 83% 86% 16% 51% 33% 35% 13%
Intermediates: < 50,000 boe/dAdvantage Oil & Gas 19.5 22.4 28.0 97% 99% 98% $65,231 $60,983 $50,580 45% 0% -7% -10% 15% 25% -22% -7% 19% 13%Birchcliff Energy 25.8 33.4 40.1 81% 83% 84% $92,197 $71,219 $59,161 23% 0% 26% 13% 29% 20% -3% 16% 28% 22%Crew Energy 27.5 26.0 30.1 51% 51% 55% $68,219 $70,141 $61,453 59% 0% 25% -2% -5% 16% -11% -1% 5% 16%Legacy Oil and Gas 19.0 21.3 22.4 11% 12% 13% $103,310 $91,636 $86,432 33% 0% 29% 17% 12% 5% 13% 1% 11% 6%Lightstream Resources 46.4 44.5 45.0 19% 20% 20% $78,133 $79,062 $77,991 31% 9% 4% 9% -4% 1% 14% -29% -13% -2%Long Run Exploration 25.1 30.0 31.4 47% 49% 49% $45,279 $42,803 $39,850 50% 7% 127% 90% 20% 5% 34% 32% 9% 4%NuVista Energy 17.3 18.5 23.4 69% 70% 70% $90,158 $90,343 $75,170 52% 4% -12% -23% 7% 27% -25% -4% -6% 16%Paramount Resources 20.9 34.1 63.2 85% 68% 56% $294,914 $189,941 $102,791 15% 0% 14% 5% 63% 86% 3% -7% 44% 81%Perpetual Energy 18.7 18.4 18.4 79% 81% 80% $36,094 $34,749 $33,550 61% 14% -15% -7% -2% 0% 40% -10% 4% 4%Surge Energy 10.8 18.7 21.3 21% 16% 16% $134,219 $104,842 $91,822 35% 16% 49% 21% 74% 13% 0% -13% -7% 6%Trilogy Energy 34.5 36.1 41.6 57% 56% 51% $131,607 $128,105 $114,150 13% 0% 20% 3% 4% 15% 13% 1% 1% 13%Twin Butte Energy 17.6 23.1 25.0 12% 9% 7% $65,738 $50,506 $45,527 69% 69% 93% 20% 31% 8% 105% -16% 8% 10%Vermilion Energy 41.0 48.0 55.9 33% 35% 38% $192,118 $176,518 $149,592 8% 0% 7% 8% 17% 17% 0% 5% 10% 17%Whitecap Resources 19.8 31.6 36.5 31% 27% 25% $138,662 $126,277 $106,539 54% 32% 148% 41% 60% 16% 48% 9% 3% 13%Average: < 50,000 boe/d 50% 48% 47% $109,706 $94,080 $78,186 39% 11% 36% 13% 23% 18% 15% -2% 8% 16%
Intermediates: > 50,000 boe/dARC Resources 96.1 112.7 123.4 61% 62% 63% $117,365 $102,071 $94,837 44% 29% 12% 3% 17% 9% 7% -1% 15% 8%Baytex Energy 57.2 76.7 87.2 12% 13% 14% $113,182 $118,256 $105,812 29% 18% 8% 6% 34% 14% 5% 1% 3% 4%Bonavista Energy 73.4 77.1 84.2 63% 63% 63% $63,500 $61,726 $57,803 60% 37% 0% 6% 5% 9% -14% -8% 4% 6%Crescent Point Energy 120.3 129.0 135.8 9% 10% 10% $159,823 $153,426 $149,826 51% 29% 34% 22% 7% 5% 10% 3% 2% 2%Enerplus 89.8 97.9 103.5 54% 52% 51% $66,090 $60,356 $57,006 38% 4% 9% 9% 9% 6% 2% 6% 9% 6%Pengrowth Energy 84.5 71.8 78.2 46% 46% 38% $59,104 $76,089 $73,971 60% 0% 16% -1% -15% 9% -25% -7% -23% 3%Penn West Exploration 135.1 103.5 96.8 37% 34% 27% $56,030 $72,966 $79,255 37% 0% -1% -16% -23% -6% -15% -16% -23% -8%Peyto Exploration 59.3 74.7 86.0 89% 89% 89% $113,017 $91,967 $80,293 54% 12% 26% 33% 26% 15% 15% 29% 25% 14%Tourmaline Oil 74.8 123.6 158.7 89% 84% 82% $161,172 $98,292 $75,544 30% 7% 64% 47% 65% 28% 45% 32% 55% 29%Average: > 50,000 boe/d 51% 50% 49% $101,032 $92,794 $86,038 45% 15% 19% 12% 14% 10% 3% 4% 8% 7%
Average 47% 46% 45% $120,819 $88,546 $77,786 38% 11% 48% 38% 45% 15% 21% 13% 18% 12%
Non-Standard Business ModelsFreehold Royalties 8.9 9.2 9.1 36% 34% 35% $191,656 $198,662 $202,975 0% 0% nmf nmf 3% -1% -40% -42% -15% 0%
! = Restricted
Average: Oil-Weighted 21% 20% 20% $130,339 $101,445 $95,808 36% 12% 41% 59% 40% 6% 8% 11% 4% 4%
Average: Balanced 47% 46% 44% $80,793 $75,045 $69,752 48% 12% 60% 35% 16% 12% 21% 5% 5% 9%
Average: Gas-Weighted 77% 76% 76% $134,332 $87,499 $68,862 34% 8% 33% 9% 61% 27% 23% 15% 40% 23%
Notes: 1. AAV and POU EV multiples adjusted for equity ownerships.
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates, and Thomson One
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 22
Exhibit 27: Comparative Data – Cash Flows
Reserves, FD&A, and Future Development Capital ("FDC")FD Cash Flow Dividends Simple Payout Ratio Effective Payout Ratio Effective Payout Ratio E&D Capex Capex Reserves
$ / share $ / share (Dividends Only) (Dividends + Capex, excluding DRIP) (Dividends + Capex, including DRIP) $MM as % of Cash Flow2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2013A 2014E 2015E
Juniors: < 15,000 boe/dArcan Resources $0.42 $0.33 $0.39 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 104% 117% 104% 104% 117% 104% $43 $37 $40 104% 117% 104%Argent Energy $1.02 $0.84 $0.74 $1.06 $0.51 $0.24 102% 60% 32% 290% 174% 126% 227% 145% 122% $103 $61 $45 188% 114% 94%Cardinal Energy $0.96 $2.32 $2.23 $0.00 $0.60 $0.65 0% 25% 28% 97% 62% 67% 97% 62% 67% $10 $33 $34 97% 37% 39%Donnycreek Energy $0.08 $0.54 $0.96 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% nmf 173% 99% nmf 173% 99% $33 $53 $54 767% 173% 99%Gear Energy $0.65 $1.09 $1.33 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 153% 74% 99% nmf nmf nmf $54 $56 $92 153% 74% 99%Kelt Exploration $0.32 $1.04 $1.17 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% nmf 224% 117% nmf 224% 117% $120 $250 $150 506% 224% 117%Longview Oil $1.35 $1.35 $1.60 $0.60 $0.48 $0.48 45% 36% 30% 107% 127% 100% 107% 127% 100% $40 $58 $53 63% 92% 70%Manitok Energy $0.51 $0.97 $1.50 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 225% 153% 101% 225% 153% 101% $83 $115 $117 225% 153% 101%Painted Pony Petroleum $0.58 $0.91 $1.12 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 280% 186% 122% 280% 186% 122% $143 $149 $121 280% 186% 122%Parallel Energy $0.73 $0.88 $0.85 $0.60 $0.60 $0.60 80% 66% 69% 103% 93% 99% 95% 86% 92% $9 $13 $14 23% 27% 30%Santonia Energy $0.19 $0.28 $0.27 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 240% 87% 109% 240% 87% 109% $44 $25 $30 240% 87% 109%Storm Resources $0.30 $0.56 $0.71 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 328% 147% 124% 328% 147% 124% $72 $78 $85 328% 147% 124%Tamarack Valley Energy $1.09 $1.25 $1.53 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 157% 121% 108% 157% 121% 108% $58 $92 $104 157% 121% 108%TORC Oil & Gas $1.59 $2.14 $2.15 $0.15 $0.54 $0.54 9% 25% 25% 184% 87% 89% 181% 81% 83% $157 $125 $130 175% 63% 64%Average: < 15,000 boe/d 17% 15% 13% 189% 130% 105% 186% 132% 104% 236% 115% 91%
Intermediates: < 50,000 boe/dAdvantage Oil & Gas $0.51 $0.91 $1.18 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 182% 156% 126% 182% 156% 126% $147 $244 $255 182% 156% 126%Birchcliff Energy $1.20 $2.07 $2.39 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 158% 98% 95% 158% 98% 95% $275 $291 $325 158% 98% 95%Crew Energy $1.42 $1.51 $1.84 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 131% 153% 112% 131% 153% 112% $220 $285 $255 131% 153% 112%Legacy Oil and Gas $1.81 $2.31 $2.48 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 113% 95% 95% 113% 95% 95% $317 $350 $373 113% 95% 95%Lightstream Resources $3.38 $3.25 $2.90 $0.96 $0.48 $0.48 28% 14% 16% 139% 97% 99% 129% 98% 99% $742 $550 $550 111% 83% 83%Long Run Exploration $1.82 $2.11 $2.36 $0.00 $0.39 $0.42 0% 18% 18% 123% 94% 91% 123% 94% 91% $284 $230 $260 123% 76% 73%NuVista Energy $0.63 $1.14 $1.35 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 337% 168% 151% 337% 168% 151% $224 $260 $275 337% 168% 151%Paramount Resources $0.75 $2.91 $5.42 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% nmf 227% 103% nmf 227% 103% $746 $650 $550 1056% 227% 103%Perpetual Energy $0.37 $0.78 $0.76 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 184% 68% 79% 184% 68% 79% $101 $80 $90 184% 68% 79%Surge Energy $1.23 $1.47 $1.47 $0.27 $0.57 $0.60 22% 38% 40% 127% 85% 95% 127% 85% 95% $126 $136 $175 104% 47% 55%Trilogy Energy $2.32 $2.77 $3.34 $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 18% 15% 12% 161% 122% 131% 160% 122% 131% $400 $375 $500 143% 107% 118%Twin Butte Energy $0.52 $0.61 $0.81 $0.19 $0.19 $0.19 38% 31% 24% 111% 89% 67% 106% 86% 64% $101 $124 $122 73% 58% 43%Vermilion Energy $6.40 $8.21 $9.36 $2.40 $2.58 $2.60 37% 31% 28% 121% 100% 88% 110% 73% 80% $551 $590 $600 84% 69% 60%Whitecap Resources $1.83 $2.24 $2.58 $0.62 $0.73 $0.75 33% 33% 29% 101% 92% 84% 101% 92% 84% $187 $307 $348 67% 59% 55%Average: < 50,000 boe/d 13% 13% 12% 153% 118% 101% 151% 115% 100% 205% 105% 89%
Intermediates: > 50,000 boe/dARC Resources $2.76 $3.42 $3.43 $1.20 $1.20 $1.20 43% 35% 35% 145% 120% 117% 127% 108% 105% $877 $915 $900 102% 85% 82%Baytex Energy $4.83 $7.08 $7.40 $2.65 $2.78 $2.88 54% 39% 38% 145% 110% 109% 113% 86% 86% $551 $768 $880 91% 71% 70%Bonavista Energy $2.40 $2.90 $3.15 $0.89 $0.84 $0.84 37% 29% 27% 138% 128% 110% 121% 118% 101% $452 $580 $550 101% 99% 84%Crescent Point Energy $5.28 $5.76 $5.63 $2.76 $2.76 $2.76 52% 48% 49% 139% 123% 123% 104% 110% 109% $1,763 $1,750 $1,700 87% 76% 74%Enerplus $3.66 $4.43 $4.71 $1.08 $1.08 $1.08 29% 24% 23% 123% 109% 99% 114% 104% 94% $688 $760 $735 93% 84% 76%Pengrowth Energy $1.02 $0.94 $1.19 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 47% 51% 40% 181% 196% 151% 173% 186% 143% $706 $715 $700 134% 145% 111%Penn West Exploration $2.03 $2.07 $2.10 $0.82 $0.56 $0.56 40% 27% 27% 123% 116% 113% 113% 109% 106% $816 $900 $900 83% 88% 86%Peyto Exploration $2.94 $4.14 $5.11 $0.88 $0.96 $0.96 30% 23% 19% 162% 122% 104% 161% 122% 104% $578 $625 $670 132% 99% 85%Tourmaline Oil $2.80 $5.94 $7.78 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0% 0% 0% 222% 101% 90% 222% 101% 90% $1,170 $1,200 $1,400 222% 101% 90%Average: > 50,000 boe/d 37% 31% 29% 153% 125% 113% 139% 116% 104% 116% 94% 84%
Average 20% 18% 16% 166% 124% 105% 159% 121% 103% 195% 106% 89%
Non-Standard Business ModelsFreehold Royalties $1.81 $2.12 $1.98 $1.68 $1.68 $1.68 92% 79% 84% 117% 103% 111% 94% 83% 90% $30 $35 $37 25% 24% 26%
! = Restricted
Average: Oil-Weighted 31% 30% 30% 124% 98% 96% 107% 87% 0% 93% 68% 66%
Average: Balanced 28% 21% 15% 181% 147% 118% 170% 141% 0% 153% 125% 103%
Average: Gas-Weighted 8% 6% 6% 336% 143% 110% 334% 142% 0% 328% 137% 105%
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates, and Thomson One
Canadian Junior/Intermediate E&P
April 16, 2014 23
Exhibit 28: Comparative Data – Reserves, FD&A, FDC and Netbacks
Reserves, FD&A, and Future Development Capital ("FDC")Reserves EV / boe (P+P) 2P FDC / 2P FD&A Costs Field Netbacks Undeveloped Land
2P PDP as PDP as 1P as RLI $ / boe 2013A $ / boe, including ∆ FDC Recycle Ratio $ / boe, ex. hedging NUL NUL / Prod.mmboe % 1P % 2P % 2P Evaluator Proved P + P No FDC With FDC Capex 2010A 2011A 2012A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 000 Acres Acres/boed
Juniors: < 15,000 boe/dArcan Resources 38.7 49% 29% 60% GLJ 14.2 23.6 $9.39 $21.28 10.8x nmf nmf $21.31 nmf 2.6x $55.83 $59.73 $57.63 68 15.1xArgent Energy 32.3 50% 27% 55% Sproule/GLJ 18.6 34.0 $14.22 $23.76 3.0x nmf nmf $24.11 nmf 1.7x $40.21 $41.21 $42.53 19 7.2xCardinal Energy 3.5 97% 74% 76% Sproule 26.3 34.5 $167.85 nmf 4.0x nmf nmf $20.88 nmf 1.7x $34.65 $41.96 $39.59 13 46.0xDonnycreek Energy 10.7 30% 8% 27% Fekete nmf nmf $11.02 $11.02 0.0x nmf $6.66 $11.82 4.6x 3.4x $39.92 $50.65 $49.79 79 nmfGear Energy 13.4 68% 37% 54% Sproule 5.7 10.6 $24.91 $33.21 2.1x nmf nmf $24.75 nmf 1.3x $32.31 $44.55 $45.57 76 21.9xKelt Exploration 34.8 72% 46% 64% Sproule 16.0 25.1 $37.69 $47.22 2.8x nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf nmf $28.75 $26.14 70 20.0xLongview Oil 37.9 68% 38% 56% Sproule 9.3 16.6 $11.49 $18.14 6.4x nmf $16.43 $29.10 1.8x 1.2x $35.69 $34.33 $38.76 171 27.4xManitok Energy 14.9 48% 26% 54% Sproule 9.2 17.0 $15.40 $15.40 0.0x nmf $9.07 $6.54 2.8x 4.8x $31.21 $44.36 $43.50 179 74.9xPainted Pony Petroleum 191.1 30% 7% 22% GLJ/Sproule 16.2 nmf $6.04 $18.38 16.5x $12.00 $8.84 $12.87 2.1x 1.5x $18.88 $22.23 $21.07 241 36.6xParallel Energy 47.2 76% 64% 84% Ryder Scott 18.6 22.1 $9.99 $12.22 11.4x nmf nmf $13.63 nmf 1.7x $23.76 $28.37 $26.61 0 0.0xSantonia Energy 25.3 67% 45% 67% GLJ 9.4 14.1 $7.28 $7.28 0.0x $18.58 $18.58 $18.58 0.8x 1.0x $18.66 $20.51 $18.09 132 11.1xStorm Resources 27.3 42% 21% 51% InSite Petroleum 13.5 26.6 $20.42 $32.09 4.4x $15.07 $15.39 $16.26 1.4x 1.3x $20.44 $27.21 $25.73 290 nmfTamarack Valley Energy 11.2 52% 31% 59% GLJ 8.4 14.1 $35.79 $53.97 3.5x $37.94 $27.58 $24.72 1.0x 1.6x $39.44 $45.82 $44.18 134 61.7xTORC Oil & Gas 18.9 54% 30% 56% Spoule 22.4 40.3 $71.66 $87.90 2.0x nmf nmf $20.08 nmf 2.3x $47.05 $56.92 $54.49 508 nmfAverage: < 15,000 boe/d 57% 35% 56% 14.4 23.2 $31.65 $29.38 4.8x $20.90 $14.65 $18.82 2.1x 2.0x $33.70 $39.04 $38.12 29.3x
Intermediates: < 50,000 boe/dAdvantage Oil & Gas 268.0 28% 18% 63% Sproule 22.5 35.4 $4.36 $11.34 12.8x $7.45 $21.38 $4.41 0.8x 2.3x $15.18 $25.41 $24.94 86 4.0xBirchcliff Energy 317.8 29% 17% 59% AJM 19.1 32.7 $7.57 $15.43 9.1x $8.34 $12.31 $11.56 1.6x 2.0x $22.97 $28.28 $26.65 506 22.2xCrew Energy 153.0 52% 29% 56% GLJ 8.6 15.5 $11.60 $18.10 4.5x $11.40 $18.37 $8.17 1.0x 2.7x $22.06 $27.82 $24.41 714 25.5xLegacy Oil and Gas 94.2 73% 43% 59% Sproule 9.3 15.8 $21.10 $29.07 2.4x nmf $47.46 $22.25 0.9x 2.2x $49.86 $57.39 $54.93 371 22.7xLightstream Resources 205.7 62% 39% 64% Sproule 7.6 11.9 $16.21 $24.56 2.3x $28.47 $30.01 $11.91 1.6x 4.2x $50.00 $51.94 $51.03 1,002 23.4xLong Run Exploration 83.2 61% 40% 65% Sproule 11.1 17.3 $15.41 $24.21 2.6x $29.65 $27.21 $13.82 1.3x 2.2x $29.84 $36.78 $35.64 763 57.8xNuVista Energy 94.1 50% 32% 63% GLJ 9.0 14.3 $16.92 $27.85 4.6x $18.44 $28.79 $15.53 0.5x 1.1x $17.64 $25.88 $24.64 629 27.9xParamount Resources 86.8 58% 34% 59% McDaniel 6.7 11.5 $73.78 $80.34 0.8x $33.64 $36.92 $19.46 0.3x 0.9x $16.71 $29.78 $27.06 1,190 59.7xPerpetual Energy 74.8 61% 30% 48% McDaniel 4.9 10.2 $8.91 $11.99 2.3x $16.43 $19.15 $11.28 0.6x 1.4x $15.47 $24.73 $23.14 1,577 78.3xSurge Energy 46.1 58% 35% 61% Sproule/McDaniel 8.7 14.2 $34.41 $44.24 3.6x nmf $15.95 $18.79 2.2x 2.2x $41.82 $50.49 $46.18 484 54.5xTrilogy Energy 97.0 91% 66% 73% InSite 5.5 7.6 $47.65 $48.06 0.1x $11.50 $17.23 $16.63 1.3x 1.6x $26.83 $31.08 $31.64 401 12.0xTwin Butte Energy 56.2 67% 36% 56% McDaniel 5.9 10.5 $16.62 $22.68 3.4x $5.91 $61.08 $29.14 0.4x 0.9x $24.77 $35.57 $35.12 442 30.1xVermilion Energy 142.3 66% 45% 68% GLJ 8.2 12.1 $53.38 $53.38 0.0x $27.36 $32.33 $23.36 1.9x 2.8x $65.61 $67.43 $65.53 1,308 40.7xWhitecap Resources 87.4 61% 42% 70% McDaniel 11.9 17.0 $46.59 $56.20 4.5x $22.96 $18.90 $20.82 2.1x 2.1x $44.09 $53.87 $53.05 196 13.9xAverage: < 50,000 boe/d 59% 36% 62% 9.9 16.1 $26.75 $33.39 3.8x $18.46 $27.65 $16.22 1.2x 2.0x $31.63 $39.03 $37.42 33.8x
Intermediates: > 50,000 boe/dARC Resources 607.0 55% 33% 60% GLJ 10.4 17.4 $18.73 $24.18 3.8x $14.25 $12.23 $13.26 2.0x 2.2x $28.58 $32.43 $30.52 812 8.7xBaytex Energy 291.6 43% 21% 49% Sproule 7.3 14.8 $30.93 $38.70 4.1x $13.15 $18.57 $11.51 1.6x 2.8x $32.62 $43.24 $45.16 865 16.0xBonavista Energy 372.2 60% 40% 67% GLJ 9.5 14.2 $12.44 $16.46 3.3x $0.00 $13.39 $11.16 1.3x 1.9x $21.05 $26.34 $24.82 1,253 18.1xCrescent Point Energy 608.8 53% 35% 66% GLJ / Sproule 10.2 15.4 $31.92 $41.57 3.3x $26.15 $31.55 $23.19 1.5x 2.2x $51.74 $53.42 $53.12 3,177 32.2xEnerplus 306.2 86% 62% 72% McD/DM 7.2 10.1 $18.84 $25.36 2.9x nmf $8.83 $22.92 2.8x 1.2x $27.42 $31.09 $30.32 1,097 13.2xPengrowth Energy 318.4 83% 58% 69% GLJ 8.1 11.7 $16.08 $26.70 4.8x $17.22 $20.04 $18.16 1.1x 1.4x $26.14 $31.93 $33.17 904 12.1xPenn West Exploration 659.8 83% 60% 73% GLJ 8.0 11.0 $11.54 $16.86 4.3x nmf $26.79 $25.50 1.0x 1.1x $29.16 $38.11 $39.58 2,093 12.7xPeyto Exploration 392.1 57% 40% 70% InSite Petroleum 15.2 21.6 $17.31 $23.81 4.4x $3.80 $11.40 $10.07 1.5x 2.1x $21.24 $29.74 $27.79 280 6.3xTourmaline Oil 437.9 37% 21% 57% GLJ 11.9 21.0 $27.57 $34.87 2.7x $15.55 $13.34 $10.35 1.2x 1.9x $19.52 $28.70 $28.00 1,077 21.2xAverage: > 50,000 boe/d 62% 41% 65% 9.8 15.2 $20.60 $27.61 3.7x $12.87 $17.35 $16.24 1.6x 1.9x $28.61 $35.00 $34.72 15.6x
Average 59% 37% 60% 11.5 18.3 $27.11 $30.50 4.1x $17.19 $21.53 $17.16 1.5x 2.0x $31.62 $38.06 $37.03 27.5x
Non-Standard Business ModelsFreehold Royalties 24.4 93% 58% 62% Trimble 4.7 7.6 $75.09 $75.74 0.5x $24.12 $28.18 $18.06 1.6x 2.7x $47.91 $57.85 $56.39 833 94.1x
! = Restricted
Average: Oil-Weighted 67% 43% 63% 11.1 17.4 $38.15 $35.29 4.0x $10.46 $20.85 $20.48 1.0x 2.1x $40.98 $47.76 $46.96 29.9x
Average: Balanced 66% 43% 62% 9.4 15.7 $22.80 $30.19 2.7x $11.15 $14.45 $17.32 1.4x 2.1x $30.47 $36.19 $35.68 29.5x
Average: Gas-Weighted 48% 28% 55% 11.7 17.4 $19.29 $25.88 4.8x $11.68 $15.60 $11.90 1.3x 1.6x $19.73 $28.62 $27.03 22.4x
Notes: 1. Recycle Ratio calculated using field netbacks excluding hedging. 2. AAV and POU EV multiples adjusted for equity ownerships.
Source: Company reports, RBC Capital Markets estimates, and Thomson One
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Appendix I: Background Information on Reserve Classifications Resource Classification The reporting of reserves for Canadian producers is governed by NI 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil & Gas Activities, which uses reserve and resource definitions derived from the COGEH.
The COGEH uses the resource classification system depicted in Exhibit 29. Total Petroleum Initially in Place (PIIP), which is the quantity of petroleum estimated to exist originally in naturally occurring formations, is divided into Undiscovered and Discovered PIIP. Discovered PIIP is further divided into four categories: Unrecoverable, Contingent Resources, Reserves, and Production.
Contingent resources are classified as quantities of petroleum estimated to be recoverable from known accumulations but which are not currently considered commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies (such as economic, legal, environmental, or regulatory matters). Projects in an early stage of evaluation may also be classified as contingent resource.
Exhibit 29: Resource Classification System
Source: COGEH
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Reserves Classification Reserves are defined as estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related products as of a given date, and are classified according to certainty. Proved reserves have a high degree of certainty (greater than 90% probability that quantities actually recovered will exceed estimated proved reserves), while proved plus probable reflect the P50 case (equally likely that actual remaining quantities will be greater or lesser than the sum of proved plus probable reserves).
Each of the reserves categories can be divided into developed and undeveloped categories. Developed reserves are associated with existing wells that have been drilled and require little additional capital. Undeveloped reserves generally require a significant expenditure (in relation to the cost of a well) to be put into production. For projects requiring significant capital, three years is a recommended guideline for assigning proved reserves and five years for probable reserves.
Exhibit 30: Reserve Classifications
Proved Producing Reserves (PDP) Reserves expected to be recovered from existing wells with minimal incremental capital.
+
Proved Not Producing Reserves (PNP) Reserves that either have not been on production or have previously been on production but are shut-in and the date of resumption of production is unknown.
+
Proved Undeveloped Reserves (PUD) Reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (i.e., the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production.
=
Total Proved Reserves (1P) The sum of PDP, PNP, and PUD reserves.
+
Probable Reserves Reserves that are less certain to be recovered than Proved Reserves and may also require a component of capital to be recovered.
=
Total 2P Reserves (2P) The sum of 1P and 2P reserves.
Source: COGEH, RBC Capital Markets estimate
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Required disclosures
Non-U.S. analyst disclosureMichael Harvey, Greg Pardy, Shailender Randhawa and Mark J. Friesen (i) are not registered/qualified as research analysts withthe NYSE and/or FINRA and (ii) may not be associated persons of the RBC Capital Markets, LLC and therefore may not be subjectto FINRA Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and tradingsecurities held by a research analyst account.
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The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, includingtotal revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generatedby investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.
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Distribution of ratings
RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
As of 31-Mar-2014
Investment Banking
Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [Top Pick & Outperform] 822 52.49 303 36.86
HOLD [Sector Perform] 654 41.76 170 25.99
SELL [Underperform] 90 5.75 11 12.22
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Markets also provides eligible clients with access to SPARC on its proprietary INSIGHT website. SPARC contains market color andcommentary, and may also contain Short-Term Trade Ideas regarding the securities of subject companies discussed in this orother research reports. SPARC may be accessed via the following hyperlink: https://www.rbcinsight.com. A Short-Term Trade Ideareflects the research analyst's directional view regarding the price of the security of a subject company in the coming days or weeks,based on market and trading events. A Short-Term Trade Idea may differ from the price targets and/or recommendations in ourpublished research reports reflecting the research analyst's views of the longer-term (one year) prospects of the subject company,as a result of the differing time horizons, methodologies and/or other factors. Thus, it is possible that the security of a subjectcompany that is considered a long-term 'Sector Perform' or even an 'Underperform' might be a short-term buying opportunityas a result of temporary selling pressure in the market; conversely, the security of a subject company that is rated a long-term'Outperform' could be considered susceptible to a short-term downward price correction. Short-Term Trade Ideas are not ratings,nor are they part of any ratings system, and RBC Capital Markets generally does not intend, nor undertakes any obligation, tomaintain or update Short-Term Trade Ideas. Short-Term Trade Ideas discussed in SPARC may not be suitable for all investors andhave not been tailored to individual investor circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independentdecisions regarding any Short-Term Trade Ideas discussed therein.
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The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor’s Financial ServicesLLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. Neither MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or impliedwarranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warrantiesof originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing,in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special,punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
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