(65) 6320 1379 6 march 2020 - kim eng holdings

6 March 2020

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SEE PAGE 16 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Global Markets Daily

Watch The Payroll

USD Within striking distance of Dec low

A full reversal of the DXY rally is almost complete. The broadly

softer greenback has brought most USDAsians lower in the past

week although we note its recovery against certain AxJ FX in the

past session. INR stuck out like a sore thumb amongst its peers,

weighed by the seizure of YES Bank by RBI who pledged to execute

a rescue plan within 30 days. The drastic measure underscores a

rather fragile financial sector that is still weighed by issues of its

shadow lending. While the rest of the world seems to be on

aggressive easing mode in response to the COVID-19 situation, RBI

may not be able to do so as inflation remains elevated. We watch

the NFP out of the US for possible further weakness in the USD.

Australia’s Consumption Softens in Jan

Australia posted a decline of -0.3%m/m for retail sales in Jan,

worse than the expected 0.0%, albeit improving from the previous

-0.5%. Jan’s retail receipts were affected by the bushfire as well

as news of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China then. The

deterioration in consumer sentiment further justifies the 25bps

rate cut RBA undertook on Tue and also brings to mind the

cooperation between the central bank and the government to

battle against the effects of COVID-19 this time, in contrast to

past economic malaise in recent years. The pledge by the

government to act could lend support to the AUD and keep the

currency supported on dips.

US NFP, German Factory Orders

Key data includes US NFP; German factory orders. For Sat, CN

trade. Any sign of labour market softening could add to more

easing bets on the Fed and concomitant USD weakness. Eyes also

on Russia’s meeting with OPEC ministers today who had propose a

daily reduction of 1.5mn bbl production.

Implied USD/SGD Estimates at 8.30am

Upper Band Limit Mid-Point Lower Band Limit

1.3521 1.3797 1.4073

Analysts

G7: Events & Market Closure

Date Ctry Event

2 Mar AU Market Closure

3 Mar AU RBA Meeting

3 Mar US Democrats’ Super

Tuesday

4 Mar CA BoC Meeting

5 Mar Global OPEC Meeting

AXJ: Events & Market Closure

Date Ctry Event

3 Mar MY BNM Meeting

Majors Prev Close % Chg Asian FX Prev Close % Chg

EUR/USD 1.1237 0.91 USD/SGD 1.383 -0.12

GBP/USD 1.2954 0.64 EUR/SGD 1.5543 0.80

AUD/USD 0.6614 -0.20 JPY/SGD 1.3027 1.16

NZD/USD 0.6302 0.06 GBP/SGD 1.7915 0.50

USD/JPY 106.16 -1.27 AUD/SGD 0.9147 -0.32

EUR/JPY 119.31 -0.37 NZD/SGD 0.8716 -0.06

USD/CHF 0.9456 -1.15 CHF/SGD 1.4627 1.09

USD/CAD 1.3411 0.19 CAD/SGD 1.0313 -0.31

USD/MYR 4.163 -0.38 SGD/MYR 3.0008 -0.55

USD/THB 31.584 0.72 SGD/IDR 10220.12 0.28

USD/IDR 14175 0.44 SGD/PHP 36.5039 -0.07

USD/PHP 50.62 0.09 SGD/CNY 5.0066 0.06

FX: Overnight Closing Prices

Saktiandi Supaat

(65) 6320 1379

[email protected]

Fiona Lim

(65) 6320 1374

[email protected]

Christopher Wong

(65) 6320 1347

[email protected]

Tan Yanxi

(65) 6320 1378

[email protected]

6 March 2020 2

FX Research & Strategy

COVID-19 Monitor

COVID-19 Combatting Measures for the Economy (China)

Liquidity and Credit Support Fiscal Stimulus and other Supportive Administrative

Measures

PBoC provided CNY300bn for virus-combatting

businesses via Special Relending Programme (1st

Feb

2020), a weekly facility for the 9 major banks and

some qualified local banks to come later in Feb.

Condition: FIs to offer loans at up to 100bps below the

1Y LPR. (3rd

Feb)

Local governments are allowed to frontload another

CNY848mn of bond sales (that was originally part of

the quota for the new year ahead set in Mar) for

utilization before Mar. CNY290bn worth of this quota

is meant for special bonds (for infrastructure

construction) (4th

Feb)

PBoC cut 7-day and 14-day reverse repo by 10bps (3rd

Feb)

Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will

offer preferential loan application policies to

individuals and small and micro-sized businesses that

have lost sources of income during the outbreak (5th

Feb)

RMB Stabilization ensured by increasing

Countercyclical Adjustment Factor in the USDCNY fix.

(3rd

Feb)

CBRC assures that defaults linked to coronavirus

outbreak will not be classified as NPL for a period of

time.

PBoC cut MLF by 10bps to 3.15% (17th

Feb) Corporate taxes will reduce and government expenses

to be cut. (16th

Feb)

1Y LPR lowered by 10bps to 4.05%, 5Y LPR lowered by

5bps to 4.75%.

State Council temporarily waive social insurance

premiums (state pension, unemployment and

accident insurance) for SMEs waived (Feb to Jun),

halved for large firms (until Apr). Those in Hubei will

be exempted regardless of size. (19th

Feb)

6 March 2020 3


G7 Currencies

DXY Index – Payrolls on Tap. USD was mixed overnight with

decline seen vs. majors (hence DXY fell) but the bounce seen vs.

selected AXJs such as KRW. DXY decline resumed overnight after a

temporary pause as its dual characteristics of carry and risk-on

proxy status was punished. US equities were down more than 3%

while UST yields plummeted below 1%. This is consistent with our

waning yesterday that – renewed fears can quickly swing sentiment

and weigh on USD. Elsewhere despite DXY and UST yields lower,

USD/AXJ was not much lower. In fact some USDAXJs, including

USDKRW even firmed. This is in line with our call that while AXJ

FX can find a breather in soft USD environment amid

synchronous policy support, its gains may still be leashed even

with a softer USD as negative sentiment can mitigate the USD

softness effect. DXY was last seen at 96.80 levels. Bearish

momentum on daily chart remains intact while RSI is near oversold

conditions again. Further downside may be sticky from here for

USDAXJs but DXY could still venture lower if the unwinding of

EUR-funded carry trades continue to unravel. The unwinding of

EUR shorts (i.e. EUR firmer) amid risk-off sentiment should add to

downward pressure on DXY (EUR’s weight is 57.6% of DXY while JPY

is 13.6%). We remain bias for downward moves but immediate

support levels at 96.70 levels (upward sloping trend-line support

from the lows of 2018 and 2020) and 96.35 (Jan 2020 low) are

critical. Failure to see follow-through could result in rebound price

action. Resistance at 97.20 (76.4% fibo), 97.70/80 levels (61.8%

fibo retracement of 2020 low to high, 100, 200 DMAs), 98.10 (50%

fibo). Day ahead brings NFP, hourly earnings, unemployment rate

(Feb); Fed’s Williams, Kaplan, Kashkari, Evans, Mester, Bullard,

George speak on Fri.

EURUSD – Are We Looking at 1.14? EUR extended its run higher

above 1.12-handle overnight. Alongside funding currencies JPY, the

negative risk sentiment has resulted in a wave of EUR and JPY-

funded carry trade unwinding. Looking at CFTC positioning, the

number of EUR shorts contracts is twice that of JPY shorts. Further

unwinding of EUR-funded carry trade could means potentially more

upside for EUR. Elsewhere consensus (Economists) is looking for

10bps cut at the upcoming ECB GC meeting next Thu. There may

be a token cut but we argue against it given monetary policy space

constraints (where cost of rate cut outweighs benefits) and

Lagarde’s preference for fiscal measures, the ECB might be better

off looking at targeted easing (cheaper loans) to help smaller

corporates rather than broad-based cut to policy rates. Even with

markets speculating for 10bps cut for ECB, markets speculation for

another 50bps Fed rate cut in 2 weeks’ time would dwarf ECB’s

magnitude of cut (if any). As such EUR could still be better bid on

dips. Pair was last seen at 1.1220 levels. Bullish momentum on

daily chart intact but RSI is rising into near overbought conditions.

Pullback not ruled out. Support at 1.1160, 1.11 (200 DMA) levels.

Resistance at 1.14, 1.1460 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2018 high to

2020 low). Day ahead brings German factory orders (Jan) on Fri.

6 March 2020 4


USDJPY – Bearish But Oversold. Pair continued to head

downwards yesterday. Last seen at 106.32, near the lower end of

our suggested trading range. More negative news on the corporate

front, including the potential –US$113bn loss in sales for carriers

issued by IATA, likely dampened market sentiments. S&P 500 lost -

3.4% overnight. BoJ is likely to consider downgrading its

assessment of the economy this month. There is a fair chance that

BoJ could resort to increasing its asset purchases during its MPC on

19 Mar. Despite potential BoJ easing, any sharp USDJPY recovery

upwards may be less likely, given current macro and Covid

uncertainties. Expectations of further Fed rate easing could narrow

US-Japan yield differentials even more, after the almost 90bps

narrowing (in favor of JPY) since the start of the year. Momentum

on daily chart is bearish, while stochastics are now in oversold

conditions. Resistance at 107.40 (23.6% fibo retracement from

2019 low to 2020 high), 108.40 (200 DMA), before 109.20 (100

DMA). Support nearby at 106.30 (76.4% fibo), before 104.50 (2019

low).

NZDUSD – Rebound but Within Bearish Trend Channel. RBNZ

could turn dovish as soon as at its MPC meeting this month,

following its G7 peers – Fed, BoC, RBA cutting rates and BoE, BOJ

pledging support. At the same time RBNZ’s working assumption for

its economic and rate projections maybe overly optimistic as seen

from its last MPC – where it assumed COVID-19 will start to peak in

end-Feb. RBA has cut this week by 25bps and possibly could cut

again at its next meeting, RBNZ could indeed follow through with

one soon. But we think 25bps cut may be too mild given current

easing cycle trend and the RBNZ may end up wasting its

ammunition. It may be better to hold or do 50bps for maximum

effect like what it did last year. NZD was last seen at 0.6315 levels.

Bearish momentum on daily chart is waning while RSI is rising.

Chance of rebound but bearish trend channel formed since start of

2020 remains intact. Expect upper and lower bounds to remain

respected. Resistance at 0.6320/40 (23.6% fibo retracement of

2020 high to low, upper bound). Support at 0.6250, 0.6190 levels.

AUDUSD – Bullish Divergence Played Out. AUD hovered just under

the 21-dma and was last seen around 0.6610. Larger than expected

Fed cut (50bps) vs. RBA’s 25bps cut also provide support for AUD as

compression of negative yield differentials (to AUD’s advantage) –

10y AU-UST yield differential narrowed from -70bps early this year

to -23bps while the full pass-on of RBA’s 25bps rate cut to end-

consumers and better than expected 4Q GDP continued to support

sentiment. Pair was last seen at 0.6610 levels. Daily momentum

turned mild bullish while stochastics rises. Bullish divergence has

played out but immediate resistance at 0.6650 (21 DMA) caps. This

needs to be decisively broken for further gains to gather traction

towards 0.6730 levels. Support at 0.6575, 0.6510 levels. Australia

posted a decline of -0.3%m/m for retail sales in Jan, worse than

the expected 0.0%, albeit improving from the previous -0.5%. Jan’s

retail receipts were affected by the bushfire as well as news of the

novel coronavirus outbreak in China then. Weak consumer

6 March 2020 5


sentiment (even before the full impact of COVID-19) further

justifies the 25bps rate cut RBA undertook on Tue and also brings

to mind the cooperation between the central bank and the

government to battle against the effects of COVID-19 this time, in

contrast to past economic malaise in recent years. The pledge by

the government to act could lend support to the AUD and keep the

currency supported on dips.

6 March 2020 6


Asia ex Japan Currencies

SGD trades around -0.50% from the implied mid-point of 1.3773

with the top estimated at 1.3498 and the floor at 1.4049.

USDSGD – Down-moves Might Slow. As cautioned, pair’s down-

move slowed. Pair was last seen at 1.3837, vs. 1.3847 yesterday

morning. There could still be some USD-led volatility in the interim

on shifting expectations for the 18 Mar Fed FOMC, even after the

emergency 50bops cut earlier. Fed fund futures are now looking at

an implied rate of 0.653%, after the policy meeting, from current

implied rate of 1.181%, or about 2 rate cuts. On the SG end, retail

sales for Jan fell -5.3%y/y, vs. -3.4% earlier, despite LNY this year

being in Jan. Data for Feb for be even uglier on Covid impact, but

markets may look past this if signs of easing in Covid negativity

materialize. Momentum on daily chart is bearish, and stochastics

are slipping towards oversold conditions. Pace of down-moves in

USDSGD might continue to slow in interim. Support for USDSGD at

1.3820 (76.4% fibo retracement from Sep 2019 high to Dec low),

1.3750 (61.8% fibo). Resistance at 1.3920 (21 DMA), 1.4000, 1.4080.

Long position in SGDCNH initiated on 20 Feb, on assessment that

recent hit to SGD has led it to be more stretched vs. CNH. Entry at

5.0273, take profit at 5.137, stop-loss at 4.98. Risk-reward of 1:2.3.

AUDSGD – Ranged. AUDSGD was last seen around 0.9140 as AUD’s

upmove was crimped by the weaker-than-expected retail sales.

Cross’s trading range was relatively subdued overall post early-

morning dip yesterday, at around 0.9150 to 0.9180. Momentum is

bearish but stochastics rise from oversold condition. Support for

now at 0.9094, 0.8982 (recent low) and next low is seen around

0.8665. Resistance at 0.9270, 0.9340.

SGDMYR – Bearish Divergence. SGDMYR was last seen at 3.0170

levels. Bullish momentum shows signs of fading while RSI is drifting

lower. Bearish divergence seen on MACD and RSI – downward

pressure. Support at 3.01 (50 DMA), 3.00 levels and 3.00 (21 DMA).

Resistance at 3.0250 levels (50% fibo retracement of Dec high to

2020 low) before 3.0360 levels (100, 200 DMAs). Intraday range of

3.00 – 3.02 likely.

USDMYR – Range. USDMYR continues to trade near yesterday’s

levels; last seen at 4.1750. Daily momentum and RSI are showing a

downward bias. A move lower to close the runaway gap is already

underway. Immediate support at 4.1720 (21 DMA), 4.1705 (38.2%

fibo retracement of 2020 low to high) and 4.1560 (200 DMA).

Resistance at 4.1980 levels. We look for 4.17 – 4.19 range intra-day.

USDCNH – Sentiment Holds Up at Home. Pair continued to be on

the dip yesterday, and was last seen at 6.9267. Estimates of

production recovery are around 60-70% of normal production.

Although recovery is still slow, any progress is taken positively by

markets. Shanghai Comp has already reversed out the losses for the

year, up +0.7% ytd. USDCNH is also pressed lower due to the

improving sentiment at home, aided by tapering cases of COVID-19

6 March 2020 7


infections (vs. the rest of the world). Nonetheless, we anticipate

that trade/macro impact could still weigh on the currency and keep

this pair supported. Trade data for Jan-Feb will be released

tomorrow. At home, the government agencies focus on reforms

including the supervision on financial infrastructure and CRIRC’s

reform of accident insurance. This comes ahead of the potential

inclusion of China into the World Government Bond Index of FTSE

Russell at the interim review this month. Support nearby at 6.9260

before 6.8960. Resistance at 7.00 before 7.02, 7.06. FX Net

settlement for Jan due on Fri.

1m USDIDR NDF – Wider Trading Range On Covid. NDF made a

move upwards for the 14,500 mark overnight but failed to break

through. Last seen at 14,440, significantly higher than yesterday

morning’s 14250. IDR seems to be more sensitive to global risk

aversion moves these past 2 weeks, and we could see sharper moves

alongside shifts in global sentiments and bond flows. We look for

interim range of 14,200 to 14,650. Authorities are asking banks to

pass on the benefits of recent cuts in benchmark policy rates and

reserves requirements to borrowers, especially SMEs. BI would also

likely intensify triple intervention should IDR weaken excessively.

There might be some cautious optimism alongside the revealing of

more details on the new tranche of fiscal measures, which would be

“sizable” and “bigger” than the initial US$742mn package

announced to counter Covid drag. That said, we are cautious of a

sudden spike in contagion numbers in Indonesia, given the first

appearance of confirmed patients. Momentum on daily chart is

bullish, while stochastics show signs of inching lower. Support at

14,200 (61.8% fibo retracement of Aug 2019 high to recent low),

14,000, 13800 (23.6% fibo). Resistance at 14,650, 14,800, 15,060.

Foreign reserves due today.

USDTHB – Bullish Momentum Faded. USDTHB headed up yesterday

but was resisted by the 31.6 level. Last seen at 31.55. Headline and

core inflation for Feb came in at 0.74%y/y and 0.58%y/y

respectively, both largely around expectations. Tame inflation

could allow BoT to cut rates further, perhaps another 25bps as soon

as the Mar 25 meeting. Reports cite a US$3bn package of measures

to alleviate impact of Covid on the macroeconomy (to be proposed

in Cabinet next week), including cash handouts, soft loands and

steps to support the stock market. Meanwhile, expectations on

accelerated disbursements from the >US$100bn budget after earlier

delays, could still help to anchor sentiments. We had discussed in

more detail the factors influencing THB trajectory in a recent piece

here. Momentum on daily chart has turned bearish, while

stochastics are dipping lower. Support at 31.00, 30.73 (200 DMA),

30.50 (100 DMA). Resistance at 31.88, 32.40.

1M USDPHP NDF – Consolidation. NDF last seen at 50.82, only very

slightly higher than yesterday morning’s 50.72. Consolidative

behavior might continue in the interim. Unemployment rate for Jan

came in at 5.3%, higher than 4.5% prior, but some seasonal effects

could be at play here. Inflation for Feb came in lower than

expected, at 2.6%y/y (vs. 3.0% expected), which could allow BSP to

http://factsettd.maybank-ke.com/TD_PORT_FactSetPartners/iredirect?wop=000134000aaa7d9f&BSQDEhhSHCwUXEkVPDIHeEEFB11UfFIOWGlEEHRWKgUBV1YFLmQSdlUZPExDfgRWQ0cGWVwnDjBHVxNyV10VOR1ODHs0JCBwRAMkLXAZNTQsET8JBwRYRRJeLH5DEw%3D%3D

6 March 2020 8


proceed with further rate cuts. Nonetheless, even if BSP were to

cut rates on the Mar 19 meeting, the recent round of easing in DM

markets including US could mean that carry appeal for PHP could

still remain intact. Bullish momentum has faded, while stochastics

are inching lower. Support at 50.39 (recent low), 50.0. Resistance

at 50.90 (100 DMA), 51.35 (200 DMA), 51.64.

6 March 2020 9


Malaysia Fixed Income

Rates Indicators

MGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change

(bps)

3YR MH 3/23 2.60 2.58 -2

5YR MI 6/24 2.61 2.62 +1

7YR MK 5/27 2.71 2.71 Unchanged

10YR MO 8/29 2.74 2.78 +4

15YR MS 7/34 3.03 3.02 -1

20YR MY 5/40 3.14 3.14 Unchanged

30YR MZ 7/48 3.54 3.52 -2

IRS

6-months 2.77 2.77 -

9-months 2.74 2.74 -

1-year 2.68 2.67 -1

3-year 2.62 2.59 -3

5-year 2.64 2.63 -1

7-year 2.68 2.71 +3

10-year 2.85 2.89 +4

Source: Maybank KE

*Indicative levels

Global: Export Growth (% YoY,

Government bonds saw some consolidation. There was better

selling for profit taking at the belly, with 10y MGS and GII

benchmark yields up by 3-4bps. Meanwhile, the front and ultra-

long ends were supported. 15y MGS 7/34 reopening auction

garnered a bid/cover of 2.25x and an average yield of 3.027%.

The profit taking after BNM’s recent OPR cut has been shallow

and dovish signaling by major central banks to continue

supporting bond sentiment.

IRS curve steepened with rates lower by 1-3bps at the front end

and up 3-4bps at the back end, pivoting around the 6y tenor. 2y

and 5y IRS traded at 2.58% and 2.61% respectively. But there was

more activity on MYR basis, with a couple of foreign names paying

up the 5y basis on the back of suspected flows. 3M KLIBOR still

2.83%.

In PDS, trading centered on GG credits and while the rally was

more subdued, there were more different credits dealt. Front end

and belly yields fell 1-3bps, while the long end was largely

muted. AAA and AA spaces were quiet and traded rangebound,

except Sarawak Hidro 2029 which rallied 4bps. Market appears to

be cautious and prefer low beta papers for the time being.

Analysts

Winson Phoon

(65) 6812 8807

[email protected]

Se Tho Mun Yi

(603) 2074 7606

[email protected]

6 March 2020 10


Singapore Fixed Income

Rates Indicators

SGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change

(bps)

2YR 1.15 1.06 -9

5YR 1.22 1.15 -7

10YR 1.35 1.35 -

15YR 1.51 1.51 -

20YR 1.57 1.59 +2

30YR 1.77 1.78 +1

Source: MAS

SGS had strong demand for short dated bonds given the decline in

short term funding costs. An aggressive 6m T-bill auction with cut-

off yield at 1.04% and softer SGD forward points drove market to

snap up bonds up to the 5y tenor. Long end, however, remained

pressured and hence, the SGS curve steepened further with short

end yields down 7-9bps and ultra-long end yields up 1-2bps. SGD IRS

curve also steepened but in a smaller range of -3bps to +3bps.

Asian credits rallied with spreads tightening 5-10bps across most

names on the back of a return of real money bids after US equities

rallied overnight. Asian IG sovereigns such as INDON and PHILIP

rallied strongly and were 0.80-1.50pts higher in cash prices and 4-

15bps tighter in spreads, driven by tighter CDS and some short

covering. China IGs tightened 5-8bps along with India, Malaysia and

Japan credits. Market still seem to be defensive mainly trading low

beta papers at the moment.

Indonesia Fixed Income

6 March 2020 11


Rates Indicators

IDR Gov’t Bonds Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change

(bp)

1YR 4.79 4.76 (0.03)

3YR 5.43 5.39 (0.04) Analysts 5YR 5.69 5.71 0.02 Myrdal Gunarto

10YR 6.54 6.56 0.02 (62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695

15YR 7.05 7.03 (0.02) [email protected]

20YR 7.18 7.13 (0.05)

30YR 7.43 7.38 (0.05)

* Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Indonesia

Global: Export Growth (% YoY,signif

Indonesia government bonds were still on rally trends, although profit

taking occurred in the government bonds that have tenor by 10 year and

15 year. Investors continued collecting the government bonds after

seeing an attractive Indonesian investment asset with solid fundamental

background amidst current widening of contagion of COVID-19 outbreak

on outside China, such as Iran, South Korea, and Italy. A wide spread

between Indonesian government bonds vs US Treasury Notes after the

latest Fed’s decision is expected to continue giving more attractiveness

in the emerging markets’ investment assets, such as Indonesian

government bonds. Moreover, the government is also ready to make

personal tax realization for keeping consumers’ purchasing power

capacity. The government is also decided to unchange power tariff until

Jun-20.

6 March 2020 12


Foreign Exchange: Daily LevelsEUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CNH NZD/USD EUR/JPY AUD/JPY

R2 1.1326 108.39 0.6665 1.3036 6.9603 0.6359 120.4367 72.0097

R1 1.1281 107.28 0.6639 1.2995 6.9507 0.6330 119.8733 71.1103

Current 1.1223 106.14 0.6604 1.2956 6.9413 0.6315 119.1200 70.0880

S1 1.1156 105.51 0.6586 1.2887 6.9271 0.6277 118.8733 69.6323

S2 1.1076 104.85 0.6559 1.2820 6.9131 0.6253 118.4367 69.0537

USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/IDR USD/PHP USD/THB EUR/SGD CNY/MYR SGD/MYR

R2 1.3897 4.1878 14219 50.7233 31.8213 1.5663 0.6036 3.0269

R1 1.3864 4.1754 14197 50.6717 31.7027 1.5603 0.6019 3.0138

Current 1.3840 4.1775 14246 50.7000 31.5700 1.5533 0.6006 3.0189

S1 1.3811 4.1552 14137 50.5727 31.3877 1.5440 0.5986 2.9930

S2 1.3791 4.1474 14099 50.5253 31.1913 1.5337 0.5971 2.9853

*Values calculated based on pivots, a formula that projects support/resistance for the day.

Rates Current (%)Upcoming CB

MeetingMBB Expectation

MAS SGD 3-Month

SIBOR1.4710 Apr-20 Easing Bias

BNM O/N Policy Rate 2.50 5/5/2020 Easing Bias

BI 7-Day Reverse Repo

Rate4.75 19/3/2020 Easing

BOT 1-Day Repo 1.00 25/3/2020 Neutral

BSP O/N Reverse Repo 3.75 19/3/2020 Easing

CBC Discount Rate 1.38 19/3/2020 Neutral

HKMA Base Rate 1.50 - Neutral

PBOC 1Y Lending Rate 4.35 - Easing

RBI Repo Rate 5.15 3/4/2020 Easing

BOK Base Rate 1.25 9/4/2020 Easing

Fed Funds Target Rate 1.25 19/3/2020 Easing

ECB Deposit Facility

Rate-0.50 12/3/2020 Easing Bias

BOE Official Bank Rate 0.75 26/3/2020 Neutral

RBA Cash Rate Target 0.50 7/4/2020 Easing Bias

RBNZ Official Cash Rate 1.00 25/3/2020 Easing Bias

BOJ Rate -0.10 19/3/2020 Easing

BoC O/N Rate 1.25 15/4/2020 Neutral

Policy Rates Equity Indices and Key Commodities

V alue % Change

Dow 26,121.28 -3.58

Nasdaq 8,738.60 -3.10

Nikkei 225 21,329.12 1.09

FT S E 6,705.43 -1.62

Australia AS X 200 6,395.74 1.11

S ingapore S traits

T imes3,018.27 -0.22

Kuala Lumpur

Composite1,491.03 0.07

Jakarta Composite 5,638.13 -0.21

P hilippines Composite 6,884.77 0.25

T aiwan T AIE X 11,514.82 1.08

Korea KOS P I 2,085.26 1.26

S hanghai Comp Index 3,071.68 1.99

Hong Kong Hang S eng 26,767.87 2.08

India S ensex 38,470.61 0.16

Nymex Crude Oil W T I 45.90 -1.88

Comex Gold 1,668.00 1.52

Reuters CRB Index 162.37 -1.40

M BB KL 8.53 0.71

6 March 2020 13


MYR Bonds Trades Details

MGS & GII Coupon Maturity

Date Volume (RM ‘m)

Last Done Day High Day Low

MGS 6/2012 3.492% 31.03.2020 3.492% 31-Mar-20 66 2.537 2.553 2.537

MGS 6/2013 3.889% 31.07.2020 3.889% 31-Jul-20 176 2.554 2.554 2.5

MGS 3/2015 3.659% 15.10.2020 3.659% 15-Oct-20 414 2.521 2.545 2.501

MGS 5/2017 3.441% 15.02.2021 3.441% 15-Feb-21 1 2.484 2.484 2.484

MGS 1/2011 4.16% 15.07.2021 4.160% 15-Jul-21 184 2.522 2.581 2.522

MGS 3/2014 4.048% 30.09.2021 4.048% 30-Sep-21 123 2.529 2.551 2.529

MGS 4/2016 3.620% 30.11.2021 3.620% 30-Nov-21 158 2.537 2.594 2.537

MGS 1/2017 3.882% 10.03.2022 3.882% 10-Mar-22 197 2.547 2.561 2.542

MGS 1/2012 3.418% 15.08.2022 3.418% 15-Aug-22 2 2.576 2.581 2.576

MGS 2/2015 3.795% 30.09.2022 3.795% 30-Sep-22 92 2.568 2.62 2.562

MGS 3/2013 3.480% 15.03.2023 3.480% 15-Mar-23 60 2.579 2.582 2.579

MGS 2/2018 3.757% 20.04.2023 3.757% 20-Apr-23 171 2.592 2.603 2.58

MGS 1/2016 3.800% 17.08.2023 3.800% 17-Aug-23 20 2.537 2.537 2.537

MGS 3/2019 3.478% 14.06.2024 3.478% 14-Jun-24 323 2.654 2.654 2.615

MGS 1/2014 4.181% 15.07.2024 4.181% 15-Jul-24 26 2.627 2.662 2.627

MGS 2/2017 4.059% 30.09.2024 4.059% 30-Sep-24 140 2.635 2.655 2.635

MGS 1/2015 3.955% 15.09.2025 3.955% 15-Sep-25 79 2.627 2.813 2.6

MGS 3/2011 4.392% 15.04.2026 4.392% 15-Apr-26 10 2.669 2.669 2.669

MGS 1/2019 3.906% 15.07.2026 3.906% 15-Jul-26 93 2.724 2.737 2.703

MGS 3/2016 3.900% 30.11.2026 3.900% 30-Nov-26 25 2.747 2.747 2.697

MGS 3/2007 3.502% 31.05.2027 3.502% 31-May-27 174 2.734 2.758 2.705

MGS 4/2017 3.899% 16.11.2027 3.899% 16-Nov-27 5 2.744 2.744 2.712

MGS 5/2013 3.733% 15.06.2028 3.733% 15-Jun-28 36 2.762 2.762 2.733

MGS 2/2019 3.885% 15.08.2029 3.885% 15-Aug-29 348 2.76 2.806 2.753

MGS 3/2010 4.498% 15.04.2030 4.498% 15-Apr-30 26 2.858 2.892 2.858

MGS 4/2011 4.232% 30.06.2031 4.232% 30-Jun-31 50 2.95 2.974 2.95

MGS 4/2013 3.844% 15.04.2033 3.844% 15-Apr-33 15 3.056 3.056 3.035

MGS 3/2018 4.642% 07.11.2033 4.642% 07-Nov-33 50 3.051 3.062 3.051

MGS 4/2019 3.828% 05.07.2034 3.828% 05-Jul-34 771 3.007 3.068 3.007

MGS 3/2017 4.762% 07.04.2037 4.762% 07-Apr-37 69 3.161 3.192 3.158

MGS 4/2018 4.893% 08.06.2038 4.893% 08-Jun-38 46 3.217 3.217 3.21

MGS 5/2019 3.757% 22.05.2040 3.757% 22-May-40 20 3.138 3.138 3.138

MGS 7/2013 4.935% 30.09.2043 4.935% 30-Sep-43 18 3.424 3.451 3.42

MGS 2/2016 4.736% 15.03.2046 4.736% 15-Mar-46 2 3.56 3.56 3.51

MGS 5/2018 4.921% 06.07.2048 4.921% 06-Jul-48 164 3.529 3.582 3.495

PROFIT-BASED GII 7/2012 15.05.2020 3.576% 15-May-20 220 2.56 2.56 2.548 GII MURABAHAH 2/2015 3.799% 27.08.2020 3.799% 27-Aug-20 170 2.54 2.54 2.54

GII MURABAHAH 6/2013 23.03.2021 3.716% 23-Mar-21 160 2.547 2.547 2.542

PROFIT-BASED GII 3/2011 30.04.2021 4.170% 30-Apr-21 50 2.541 2.541 2.541 GII MURABAHAH 2/2016 3.743% 26.08.2021 3.743% 26-Aug-21 115 2.556 2.56 2.555 GII MURABAHAH 3/2017 3.948% 14.04.2022 3.948% 14-Apr-22 91 2.586 2.621 2.586

PROFIT-BASED GII 4/2012 15.11.2022 3.699% 15-Nov-22 20 2.59 2.59 2.59 GII MURABAHAH 1/2016 4.390% 07.07.2023 4.390% 07-Jul-23 70 2.637 2.637 2.625

PROFIT-BASED GII 2/2013 31.10.2023 3.493% 31-Oct-23 40 2.641 2.672 2.641 GII MURABAHAH 3/2018 4.094% 30.11.2023 4.094% 30-Nov-23 45 2.634 2.635 2.634

GII MURABAHAH 8/2013 22.05.2024 4.444% 22-May-24 10 2.669 2.669 2.669 GII MURABAHAH 4/2019 3.655% 15.10.2024 3.655% 15-Oct-24 312 2.644 2.656 2.633

6 March 2020 14


GII MURABAHAH 1/2018 4.128% 15.08.2025 4.128% 15-Aug-25 26 2.701 2.701 2.695 GII MURABAHAH 4/2015 3.990% 15.10.2025 3.990% 15-Oct-25 13 2.674 2.674 2.674 GII MURABAHAH 3/2019 3.726% 31.03.2026 3.726% 31-Mar-26 139 2.735 2.735 2.701 GII MURABAHAH 1/2017 4.258% 26.07.2027 4.258% 26-Jul-27 22 2.796 2.796 2.761 GII MURABAHAH 2/2018 4.369% 31.10.2028 4.369% 31-Oct-28 168 2.797 2.821 2.797

GII MURABAHAH 9/2013 06.12.2028 4.943% 06-Dec-28 60 2.822 2.825 2.822 GII MURABAHAH 1/2019 4.130% 09.07.2029 4.130% 09-Jul-29 80 2.835 2.841 2.818 GII MURABAHAH 5/2013 4.582% 30.08.2033 4.582% 30-Aug-33 30 3.069 3.069 3.069 GII MURABAHAH 6/2019 4.119% 30.11.2034 4.119% 30-Nov-34 90 3.09 3.09 3.035 GII MURABAHAH 5/2019 4.638% 15.11.2049 4.638% 15-Nov-49 200 3.538 3.543 3.534

Total 6,285

Sources: BPAM

6 March 2020 15


MYR Bonds Trades Details

PDS Rating Coupon Maturity

Date Volume (RM ‘m)

Last Done

Day High

Day Low

PTPTN IMTN 4.450% 26.03.2021 GG 4.450% 26-Mar-21 15 2.7 2.7 2.7

MDV IMTN 0% 28.01.2022 - TRANCHE NO 5 GG 4.370% 28-Jan-22 30 2.749 2.749 2.749

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.150% 06.04.2022 - Tranche No 31 GG 4.150% 06-Apr-22 5 2.752 2.752 2.752

LPPSA IMTN 4.170% 15.04.2022 - Tranche No 7 GG 4.170% 15-Apr-22 10 2.748 2.748 2.748

DANAINFRA IMTN 3.740% 20.07.2022 - Tranche No 2 GG 3.740% 20-Jul-22 20 2.724 2.724 2.724

PRASARANA SUKUK MURABAHAH 4.08% 14.09.2022 - S1 GG 4.080% 14-Sep-22 50 2.75 2.75 2.75

MDV IMTN 0% 09.12.2022 - TRANCHE NO 6 GG 4.620% 09-Dec-22 20 2.772 2.772 2.772

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.080% 18.08.2023 - Tranche No 79 GG 4.080% 18-Aug-23 20 2.736 2.736 2.736

KHAZANAH 0% 20.03.2024 GG 0.000% 20-Mar-24 35 2.81 2.81 2.81

KHAZANAH 0% 27.08.2024 GG 0.000% 27-Aug-24 25 2.811 2.811 2.811

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.150% 12.02.2026 - TRANCHE 5 GG 4.150% 12-Feb-26 40 2.856 2.856 2.849

PRASARANA IMTN 3.020% 25.02.2027 - Series 1 GG 3.020% 25-Feb-27 90 2.897 2.91 2.897

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.560% 19.03.2027 - Tranche No 57 GG 4.560% 19-Mar-27 10 2.91 2.91 2.91

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.370% 25.05.2027 - Tranche No 63 GG 4.370% 25-May-27 30 2.919 2.919 2.919

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.040% 20.07.2027 - Tranche No 4 GG 4.040% 20-Jul-27 10 2.931 2.931 2.931

DANAINFRA IMTN 3.470% 26.09.2029 - Tranche 12 GG 3.470% 26-Sep-29 10 2.935 2.935 2.935

PRASARANA IMTN 3.090% 25.02.2030 - Series 2 GG 3.090% 25-Feb-30 40 3 3 3

DANAINFRA IMTN 4.650% 20.10.2036 - Tranche No 52 GG 4.650% 20-Oct-36 10 3.199 3.201 3.199

SARAWAKHIDRO IMTN 4.16% 11.08.2020 AAA 4.160% 11-Aug-20 5 2.901 2.901 2.901

BPMB MTN 5477D 23.4.2021-MTN 2 AAA 6.300% 23-Apr-21 10 3.035 3.071 3.035

BPMB IMTN 4.28% 02.03.2022 - Issue No 10 AAA 4.280% 02-Mar-22 10 3.043 3.053 3.043

GASMSIA IMTN 3.520% 13.12.2022 AAA IS 3.520% 13-Dec-22 90 3.149 3.161 3.149

MERCEDES MTN 1461D 28.11.2023 AAA (S) 3.570% 28-Nov-23 5 3.31 3.31 3.31

DIGI IMTN 3.50% 18.09.2026 - Tranche No 4 AAA 3.500% 18-Sep-26 18 3.096 3.099 3.096

BPMB IMTN 4.50% 04.11.2026 - Issue No 7 AAA 4.500% 04-Nov-26 40 3.157 3.162 3.157

BPMB IMTN 4.62% 02.03.2027 - Issue No 11 AAA 4.620% 02-Mar-27 10 3.166 3.171 3.166

SARAWAKHIDRO IMTN 4.56% 10.08.2029 AAA 4.560% 10-Aug-29 10 3.049 3.06 3.049

SEB IMTN 5.320% 03.12.2032 AAA 5.320% 03-Dec-32 10 3.239 3.241 3.239

DANGA IMTN 5.020% 21.09.2033 - Tranche 9 AAA (S) 5.020% 21-Sep-33 10 3.229 3.241 3.229

SEB IMTN 4.950% 25.11.2033 AAA 4.950% 25-Nov-33 10 3.289 3.291 3.289

SABAHDEV MTN 730D 23.4.2021 - Issue No. 202 AA1 4.900% 23-Apr-21 20 3.151 3.151 3.151

SABAHDEV MTN 1826D 28.4.2022 AA1 5.300% 28-Apr-22 30 3.237 3.242 3.237

SABAHDEV MTN 2555D 27.2.2026 - Issue No. 201 AA1 5.500% 27-Feb-26 20 3.62 3.622 3.62

KLK IMTN 3.75% 27.09.2029 - Tranche 1 AA1 3.750% 27-Sep-29 30 3.177 3.181 3.177

FRL IMTN 4.850% 27.10.2021 AA2 4.850% 27-Oct-21 10 3.313 3.325 3.313

UMWH IMTN 5.220% 02.10.2026 AA2 5.220% 02-Oct-26 10 3.367 3.369 3.367

STMSB MTN 1096D 30.6.2020 AA- 4.650% 30-Jun-20 10 3.601 3.633 3.601

BESRAYA 4.720% 28.07.2020 AA3 4.720% 28-Jul-20 10 3.084 3.11 3.084

MALAKOFF POW IMTN 5.150% 17.12.2020 AA- IS 5.150% 17-Dec-20 6 2.981 2.994 2.981

COUNTRY GDN IMTN 4.750% 03.03.2021 - Issue No 6 AA3 (S) 4.750% 03-Mar-21 30 4.312 4.312 4.312

UEMS IMTN 4.80% 08.04.2022 - Issue No. 6 AA- IS 4.800% 08-Apr-22 10 3.094 3.128 3.094

TG EXCELLENCE SUKUK WAKALAH (TRANCHE 1) AA- IS 3.950% 27-Feb-20 60 3.595 3.626 3.595

S POWER IMTN 6028D 19.11.2021 ClassA(T1) A1 22.180% 19-Nov-21 4 3.718 3.723 3.718

CIMB 5.400% Perpetual Capital Securities - T3 A1 5.400% 25-May-16 1 3.799 3.799 3.799

MATRIX IMTN 5.500% 06.03.2023 NR(LT) 5.500% 06-Mar-23 4 5.45 5.47 5.12

YNHP 6.850% PERPETUAL SECURITIES - TRANCHE NO 1 NR(LT) 6.850% 07-Aug-19 1 6.273 6.673 6.273

Total 955

6 March 2020 16


Sources: BPAM

6 March 2020 17


DISCLAIMER

This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, or an offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Investors should note that income from such securities or financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s or financial instrument’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities and/or financial instruments or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Malayan Banking Berhad and/or its affiliates and related corporations (collectively, “Maybank”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities and/or financial instruments referred to herein and may further act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and/or financial instruments and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies whose securities are mentioned in this report. Any information or opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.

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This report is prepared for the use of Maybank’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank. Maybank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

6 March 2020 18


Published by:

Malayan Banking Berhad (Incorporated In Malaysia)

Foreign Exchange

Sales

Singapore Indonesia Malaysia

Saktiandi Supaat Juniman Azman Amiruddin Shah bin Mohamad Shah

Head, FX Research Chief Economist, Indonesia Head, Sales-Malaysia, GB-Global Markets

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

(+65) 6320 1379 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29682 (+60) 03-2173 4188

Christopher Wong Myrdal Gunarto Singapore

Senior FX Strategist Industry Analyst Janice Loh Ai Lin

[email protected] [email protected] Co-Head of Sales, Singapore

(+65) 6320 1347 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695 [email protected]

(+65) 6536 1336

Fiona Lim

Senior FX Strategist Joanna Leong Wan Yi

[email protected] Co-Head of Sales, Singapore

(+65) 6320 1374 [email protected]

Yanxi Tan

(+65) 6320 1511

FX Strategist Indonesia

[email protected] Endang Yulianti Rahayu

(+65) 6320 1378 Head of Sales, Indonesia

[email protected]

(+62) 21 29936318 or

Fixed Income (+62) 2922 8888 ext 29611

Malaysia

Winson Phoon Wai Kien

Shanghai

Fixed Income Analyst

Joyce Ha

[email protected]

Treasury Sales Manager

(+65) 6231 5831

[email protected]

(+86) 21 28932588

Se Tho Mun Yi

Fixed Income Analyst Hong Kong

[email protected] Joanne Lam Sum Sum

(+60) 3 2074 7606

Head of Corporate Sales Hong Kong

[email protected]

(852) 3518 8790

(65) 6320 1379 6 march 2020 - kim eng holdings

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