6.18.10quantitativeeasingdoesnotguaranteehigherstockprices

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Continental Capital Advisors, LLC June 18, 2010

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Quantitative Easing Does Not Guarantee Higher Stock Prices

The US economy and much of the global economy continues to be in a post-bubble, debt

deleveraging process. M3, the broadest measure of money supply, demonstrates that deleveraging

has re-emerged as a key threat to economic growth. As measured by Shadow Statistics, M3 declined5.9% this year versus last year for the month of May - the worst contraction since 1934 during the

Great Depression. Despite the ominous trend in M3, many investors are holding risk assets, such as

stocks and bonds, with the false hope of a self-sustaining economic recovery and/or the assumption

that the Federal Reserve will bail them out (via quantitative easing) should equity markets fall.

The investment mantra Dont Fight The Fed was echoed loudly on Wall Street from August 2007

through February 2009. This was bad advice even though the Federal Reserve continually cut

interest rates and launched numerous special lending facilities. Not surprisingly, faith in the Federal

Reserve has since returned because of the 80% rally in the S&P 500 from March 2009 through April

2010, which coincided with the start of the Federal Reserves quantitative easing program.However, quantitative easing may not have produced the massive rally in risk assets, but rather the

rally resulted from severely oversold market conditions, much like the rally from November 1929

through April 1930.

Regardless of what generated the rally in risk assets, investors should not be comforted by the

Federal Reserves ability to reinitiate quantitative easing. For one, if the Federal Reserve has to

increase its asset purchases, the stock market and the economy will have already retreated

meaningfully. Secondly, Figure 1 shows that even with significant asset purchases by the Bank of

Japan from 1997 (earliest data available) through 2006 the Nikkei 225 index failed to respond

(Figure 2). Japanese stocks instead followed the path of the global economy and global stockmarkets. Investors should note that the Japanese stock market is now 50% lower than it was in 1997

despite a more than doubling of the Bank of Japans balance sheet.

Figure 1. Bank Of Japans Assets (billions of yen; July 1997 June 2010)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

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2004

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2008

2009

2010

Sources: Bank of Japan, Continental Capital Advisors


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Figure 2. Nikkei 225 (July 1997-June 2010)

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

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2007

2008

2009

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Continental Capital Advisors

Figure 3. S&P 500 (July 1997-June 2010)

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200

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600

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1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Continental Capital Advisors

The only discernable difference between the performance of the Nikkei 225 and the S&P 500 is the

period from 1997 through 1999 when the Japanese stock market fell while the S&P 500 rose.Despite significant quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan, the stock market was unable to

overcome the negative forces of high equity valuations, economic weakness and deflation. This

historical example of ineffective quantitative easing is being ignored by investors in US assets.

Furthermore, the current deleveraging process is global in scope and impacts both the private and

public sector. As a result, investing in risk assets on the basis that the Federal Reserve will print

money is likely to be even more costly than it has been for investors buying Japanese equities.


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Daniel Aaronson [email protected] Markowitz, CFA [email protected]

http://www.continentalca.com

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Comments within the text

should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their

broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Certain statements included herein

may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such

forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the

actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be

materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking

statements. Any action taken as a result of reading this is solely the responsibility of the reader.

6.18.10quantitativeeasingdoesnotguaranteehigherstockprices

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