6 october 2004

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6 October 2004

Presentation to the Portfolio Committee on Finance

Statistics South Africa

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Aims of presentation

1. To report on the performance of Stats SA against stated targets

2. To highlight major successes of the year3. To highlight current and forthcoming work4. To highlight Stats SA’s part in government’s plan of

action

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Contents

1. Overview2. Programme performance3. Financial performance4. Implementing Government’s programme of action

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June2004

July2004

Aug2004

% Increase from June to August 04

Visitors – monthly total 64 486 79 864 83 692 +30%

Visitors - average per day

2 337 2 576 2 700 +26%

Time Series data subscribers – total as at end of month

1 557 2 269 2 904 +87%

Newsletter subscribers – totals as at end of month

245 877 1 240 +406%

Number of files downloaded – monthly total

24 813 50 672 63 223 +155%

Stats Online: 1 June 2004 – 31 August 2004

Delivering statistics

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Overview

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Government aims to:

• Grow the Economy

• Create jobs

• Deliver services

• Eradicate poverty

• Improve health

And monitor and evaluate through:

• GDP and CPI

• Unemployment rate

• Proportion of

households with access

• % below national

poverty line

• Mortality and morbidity

statistics

Statistics to inform priorities

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Governance framework

UnpredictableEnvironment;Controls notdesigned or in place

Controls designed and in place but not adequately documented

Controls designed and in place and are adequately documented

Standardised controls with periodic testing and management reporting

Integrated internal controls with real time monitoring and continuous improvement

Non-Compliance Compliance Value adding

Unreliable Informal Monitored OptimisedStandardised

High level operating framework for the new structure – excluding support services

Survey Planning

Outputs:• Data Items• Questionnaire design• Sample Frame

• Collection Methodology

• Methods and Standards

Implementation

Outputs:

• Desired Series, CPI, etc

• Fulfilling user request

Publication Dissemination

NSD

Population and Social

Economic

Data Collection

Data Processing

Data Analysis

Q & I

• Consistency

• Correctness

• Policy Impact

• Comparability

• Accuracy

• Further Integrative Analysis

Exco

DDG

Report on findings

Approval

Exco Integrative Analysis

SIS/Marketing

1 2

Organizational and/or stakeholder need

SIS*

Fee

dbac

k to

Exc

oApproval

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Priority matrix

Attend to urgently Maintain and Improve

Drop Innovate

Performance

Imp

ort

an

ce t

o u

sers

Low High

Hig

h

Income and expenditure surveyCPISecond economy Census replacement surveyConstructionService sector

Social statisticsCurrent economic statisticsCurrent causes of death dataLabour market statistics

Causes of death backlogOld business register samplesCensus 2006

Census 2011Physical address registerSocial and economic analysis

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Review of performance by programme

1. Administration and Management2. Economic and Social Statistics3. Population Statistics4. Quality and Integration5. Statistical Support and Informatics

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Programme oneAdministration and Management

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Administration and Management

Purpose: To provide sound infrastructure and support that enables Stats SA to achieve its mandate

Comprises:

Executive management• SG’s Office, Communication and International Relations• National Statistics System division• Programme Office and Management Information Systems

Administration• Finance and Provisioning Management• Human Resource Management• Service Delivery Improvement

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Key achievements

Executive management• Appointment of two DDGs – one post still vacant • SG’s column and monthly internal newsletter• Assessment of statistical capacity of govt departments• Contribution to Towards a ten year review• Training of policy makers in SADC

Administration• Expenditure under control• Improved planning – especially project management• Development of management information system• Rolled out HIV/Aids programme• Improved Human Resources file management systems


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Ten initiatives to improve governance and ensure compliance

1. Tender procedures: strengthening bid management office and bid committee has been trained

2. Asset management: Bar-coded asset management system now procured - implementation between October and December 2004

3. Census payment problems: Build capacity and reduce burden through CRS; decentralisation of support functions

4. Internal control problems: Process mapping and redesign project to ensure full compliance to regulatory requirementsand improved service delivery to users and suppliers

5. Risk management: Risk management strategy approved and currently being rolled out


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6. Internal audit recommendations: There is substantial increase in implementation of internal audit recommendations

7. IT governance: Initiated assessment of complete IT infrastructure to ensure alignment with strategic objectives

8. Review of structure to ensure better management of support functions and improve quality of statistical processes

9. Targeted skills development for all managers including financial and project management

10. Improved use of performance management to promote accountability and increase delivery

Ten initiatives to improve governance and ensure compliance


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Programme twoEconomic and Social Statistics

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Economic and Social Statistics

Purpose: To produce economic and social statistics to meet user requirements

Measurable objective: To provide statistical information which is accurate, relevant and timely in order to inform socio-economic decision making

Comprises:• Industry and Trade Statistics• Employment and Price Statistics• Financial Statistics• Social Statistics

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Output Target ActualStatistics on primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy

11 monthly series1 quarterly series1 annual seriesLarge sample surveys

Four series were delayed for three months at the beginning of 2004 to ensure proper response rates on the new samples

Statistics on the workforce in formal, non-agricultural businesses

2 quarterly series:AMESEE

Average Monthly Earnings survey was dropped to provide a bigger sample for the Survey of Employment and Earnings (SEE)

Performance against targets


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Output Target ActualStatistics on price changes

3 monthly series:CPIPPICPI for rural areas and total country

All targets met

Statistics on the financial results of government and the private sector

2 quarterly series9 annual series

All targets met

Statistics on the living conditions of the population

1 annual seriesGeneral Household Survey

All targets met

Statistics on labour market dynamics

1 bi-annual seriesLabour Force Survey

All targets met



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Improvements to the relevance and accuracy of statistics on the economy and society

• Improved coverage and accuracy of statistics on the economy through first releases of manufacturing, retail, wholesale and

motor trade statistics based on new sample

• Information on the impact of food price changes on the rural poor through publishing CPI for rural areas and total country on monthly basis

• More coherent labour market data through harmonisation of employment statistics from businesses and households

• Annual update of development indicators through General Household Survey

• New information on travel patterns through a Travel Survey for National Department of Transport


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Improvements for the current and next three yearsEconomic statistics • More accurate picture of size and growth of economy through re-benchmarking of GDP - out in November

• Improved understanding of services, construction and agriculture sectors through short term economic indicators

• More reliable inflation figures through direct price collection method for CPI

• Better responsiveness to changes in consumer behaviour through diary method for Income and Expenditure Survey to reweight the CPI basket every 3 years

• Better analysis of economic subsectors through improving referencing detail on business register

• Better coherence between series through improving analytical and research capabilities


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Improvements for the current and next three years

Social and employment statistics• Regular measurement of the second economy through the Survey of Employers and Self Employed (SESE) and Consumer Survey

• More detailed information on formal sector employees through the survey of Average Monthly Earnings

• Link money-metric and social dimensions of poverty through the General Household Survey

• Improved information on poverty through strengthening the poverty statistics unit


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Programme threePopulation Statistics

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Purpose: To provide population statistics and conduct a population census

Measurable objective: To provide information on the demographic characteristics of the country at all levels of government in order to inform policy and planning processes on the state of the population

Comprises:• Population Census• Demographic Analysis• Health and Vital Statistics

Population Statistics

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Output Target ActualCensus results and publications

30 April 2003 Census results released on 8 July - six months earlier than 1996

Census 2006 planning documents

2 documents 1 strategic plan and 1 operational plan developed before decision to postpone Census 2006

Thematic reports on demographic issues

3 reports 2 published reports2 draft reports

Statistics on tourism, migration, births, deaths, marriages and divorces

1 monthly series4 annual reports

All targets met



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Improved small area information and analysis on the people of South Africa

• Release and roll out of Census 2001 results• Launches with President and Premiers• Over 150 institutions have electronic Community Profiles• Over 100 000 Census in Brief booklets distributed• Innovations such as My Constituency and Digital Atlas• Reports such as Municipality Report and Primary Tables

• Demographic studies on fertility, disability and education


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• Inter-censal municipal level information through the Census Replacement Survey 2006

• Ensuring the best-ever Census in 2011 by testing and planning now

• Promoting coherent information on the population by working with Home Affairs on population register

• Better understanding of migration through analysis of population and migration data

• Informing strategies to target disease by producing historical and current causes of death data



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Programme fourQuality and Integration

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Quality and Integration

Purpose: To improve the integration, quality and use of official statistics

Measurable objective: To provide integrated social, economic and demographic information that enhances the quality and usage of official statistics

Comprises:• Quality and methodology• Integrative Analysis• National Accounts• Human Capacity Development

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Output Target ActualResearch and standards on best practice

4 documents 3 documents and methodological support, quality assurance for surveys

Integrative thematic reports

3 reports No reportsSpecial data requests fulfilled for users

National accounts data on level of economic activity

1 quarterly series3 annual series2 periodic reports

All targets met

Statistical skills development

120 staff members trained

29 staff members in tertiary programmes850 person days on training



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Improved quality and capacity for statistics

• Improved quality of statistics through development of methodological capacity to support economic and social statistics

• Development of turn-around strategy for economic statistics

• Official provincial economic data through first official GDP-R publication

• Improved understanding of contribution of natural resources to economy through first official satellite account on water

• Enhanced the capacity of the department through:• Completion of first group of staff studying in Uganda, Tanzania and Wits • 23 staff members completed ‘matric level’ maths course• Stats SA staff now taking over teaching duties of consultants


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• Continued improvement of quality through:• Sustained development of methodological capacity• Improved samples, methods and products

• Ensure the quality of small area data through methodological support to CRS and Census 2011

• Enhanced statistical information on social and poverty issues through the development of analytical capacity

• More accurate picture of the size and growth of the economy through re-benchmarking of National Accounts

• Systematic development of Stats SA’s capacity through a competency-based human development programme


Competency ProfilingProcess

Skills Audit

Workplace Skills Plan

Individual DevelopmentPlans

PerformanceManagement

Career Development

EmploymentEquity

Unit Standards Qualifications

CURRICULUMStatistics

Social StatsEconomics

DemographyGeography

Non Core

Material Development

Training

Classroom andWorkplace based

learning

E-Learning(Workplace

basedlearning)

Internal Stakeholders External Stakeholders

JournalistsParliamentariansOther Gov Depts

Local Government

Non CoreCore

INHOUSE/INSERVICE

Basic SamplingAdvance Sampling

Short CoursesSkills Programs

LearnershipsInternship

EXTERNAL

ISAEEASTC

Wits

MONITORING &EVALUATION /QA

SOSProgram EvaluationQuality Man. System

STATISTICALTRAININGINSTITUTE

People Development inStats SA

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Programme fiveStatistical Support and Informatics

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Statistical Support and Informatics

Purpose: To optimise the use of technology in the production and use of official statistics, to promote and provide better access to official statistics and develop provincial capacity to support the production and use of official statistics

Measurable objective: To improve service delivery and increase accessibility to statistical products and services through improving and strengthening systems at national, provincial and district level

Comprises:• Geography• Statistical Information Services• System of Registers• Information and Communication Technology• Provincial Offices

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Output Target ActualGeographic frame 40% complete 100% complete

Sampling frame for economic statistics

Provided annually Target met

Local and wide area network

Available 98% of the time

100% LAN90% WAN

Accessibility of Stats SA information

48 000 direct enquiries per year800 000 hits per month on website

45 000 direct enquiries800 000 hits

Provincial fieldwork capacity

Collect 90 000 questionnaires

100 000 questionnaires



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Improvements in the use and coverage of statistics

• Improved access to and utilisation of statistics through: • Comprehensive geographical dissemination of Census 2001

results• Revamped website• User enquiries service

• Broadening coverage of smaller businesses through inclusion of income tax data in business register

• Beginnings of provincial level economic statistics through municipal references for business register


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• Improving government service delivery and statistical accuracy through the address project

• Improving accessibility and coherence of statistics through the development of data management and warehousing systems

• Understanding user needs through more frequent user consultations especially in provinces

• Better reflection of employment in medium-sized enterprises by drawing samples from combined VAT and income tax frame


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SummaryAchievements and plans

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Top five achievements of 2003/04

1. Release and dissemination of Census 2001 results2. Publishing economic statistics based on new business

register3. Published the first of ongoing General Household

Survey4. First staff members returned from studies in Uganda

and Tanzania5. Revamped website seeing greater usage of

information

Summary

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Top five initiatives for 2004/05 to 2007/08

1. Providing municipal data through the Census Replacement Survey

2. Ensuring an accurate CPI through direct price collections3. Measuring the second economy through SESE and consumer

survey4. Improving accessibility and usage of statistics though data

management and warehousing5. Ensuring compliance through transforming the support

functions

Summary

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Financial information

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R ’000 2002/03 2003/04

Appropriation 360 234 293 884

Expenditure 359 240 280 935

Difference 994 12 949

Financial Information

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Implementing Government’sprogramme of action

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Policy Objective(1) – Comprehensive Social Security System (1.00)

Programme Activity: Poverty Measures-Research to audit poverty measures used by different departments (1.04)

Policy Objective(6) – Evidence Based Decision Making (6.0)

Programme Activity: Create strong information base for good governance and service for the developmental state (6.01)Urgently improving our knowledge of what goes on in service delivery institutions (schools, clinics, etc) (6.03)

Policy Objective (9) – Develop an integrated cluster strategy to intervene in the second economy incorporating existing initiatives that are currently unco-ordinated

Programme Activity: Immediately launch research into economic activities in Second Economy communities at the same time as it implements the Cabinet decision on a comprehensive household survey and allocation of addresses to all households – time frame of implementation to be brought forward from 2006 (9.20)

Government’s programme of action

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Implementation of plan of action

Poverty measures • GHS, Census and CRS all provide poverty information • Impending report on poverty lines and profiles

Evidence-based decision making• NSS programme • Building of statistical capacity in national departments• Working with Presidency and Depts of Education, Transport, Agriculture, Science and Tech, Social Development, Home Affairs, Health and various provinces and local authorities• Development index framework for municipalities

Economic activities in second economy; Comprehensive household survey; Allocation of addresses to all households• Second economy measured through: LFS; SESE (2005 and 2008) and Consumer Survey in 2008• Census Replacement Survey – 2006• Address project (with other agencies)

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Stats SA and the Statistics Council

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The Statistics Act, Act No. 06 of 1999

• Purpose of advancing– Planning– Production– Analysis– Documentation– Storage– Dissemination

… of official and other statistics

and

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• Providing for– Statistician-General as head of Statistics South Africa

– The Statistics Council

– The Minister

– Duties for Minister, SG and Statistics Council

– Relationship among them

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Misunderstanding between Stats SA

and the Statistics Council

• Statistics Council has raised concerns that their advice has not been heeded by Stats SA– True in some instances!

• Stats SA maintains that Council role is only advisory• Efforts to define relationship started in 2001

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Section 13 of powers and duties of the Council

1) The Council must advise the Minister, the Statistician-General or an organ of state which produces statistics with regard to—

a) matters referred to the Council by the Minister, the Statistician-General or that organ of state;

b) any matter regarding the collection, processing, analysis, documentation, storage and dissemination of statistics, including the taking of a population census, which should, in the opinion of the Council, be studied or undertaken;

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c) the elimination of unnecessary overlapping or duplication with regard to the collection or publication of statistics by organs of state;

d) any matter the Council considers necessary or expedient for achieving thepurpose of this Act;

e) the general appropriateness to the country’s needs of the services provided by Statistics South Africa.

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2. The Council must promote and safeguard—

a) official statistics;b) the co-ordination of statistical activities; andc) an environment which is supportive of the

collection, production, dissemination and use of official statistics.


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3) The Council must furnish the Minister and Statistician-General with an annualreport in respect of its activities, including its advice to the Minister and Statistician-General and the outcome of that advice, during the year in question, and the Minister must as soon as possible table that report in Parliament.


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4)The Council may issue public statements on any

matter relating to its functions in terms of this Act, but only after consultation with the organ of state, business or other organisation involved, if any, in the matter in question.


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5)The Statistician-General must provide the Council

with such secretarial and clerical assistance as is necessary for the effective performance of the functions of the Council.


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International practice

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The UN Handbook of Statistical Organization says that Council – can be used for the defense of the statistical agency – can assume the role of guardian of fundamental values – is the ultimate guarantor that, within existing resources, the statistical

programme as defined by the Chief Statistician– is the interlocutor a minister might choose if he/she wishes to have the

professional opinion of the chief statistician validated – is the body a minister could turn to for advice and succession management – proceedings would constitute a venue for registering opinions about the

output of the statistical agency

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics Act of 1975

Functions of the Council are to advise the Minister and the Australian Statistician in relation to:

– the improvement, extension and coordination of statistical services

– annual and longer term priorities and programs of work

– any other matters relating generally to those statistical services

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The Framework for National Statistics of the UK

– The main function of the Statistics Commission is to give independent, reliable and relevant advice on National Statistics to Ministers

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The Framework for National Statistics of the UK

• In conducting its work programme it will:– Improve quality and relevance of National Statistics – Improve public confidence in National Statistics – Operate efficiently by taking account of compliance costs – Co-ordinate with government regarding secure effective

communication channels with stakeholders– Advise Ministers on the effectiveness of administrative

(devolution) arrangements – Submit an annual report to the Minister for National

Statistics

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The Canadian framework

– Their explicit mandate is to advise the Chief Statistician about broad policies and priorities.

Dr Fellegi : “Many countries have some version of such a body. Their role, method of appointment, and accountability vary. They share the common purpose of providing high-level policy guidance to the statistical system and of serving as yet another protection against politicization.”

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Uganda Bureau of Statistics

– Board of Directors is the overall governing body

– Executive Director responsible for day-to-day functions

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Stats SA’s posiotion

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Stats SA’s perspective and recommendations

– The role of the Statistics Council • advisory

– Consultancy to Stats SA • Stats SA will not hire in its service any

member of the Statistics Council as a consultant

– Use of Stats SA data• solely for the purpose of the agreed work to

be performed

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Stats SA’s perspective and recommendations

– Term of the Statistics Council • call for nominations without any further delays

– Meetings • agenda will need to be discussed with Stats SA

– Secretariat • Stats SA will provide two staff members

– Communication• Through the SG• Or with officials delegated by the SG

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Presentation to Portfolio Committee on Finance

Thank you

6 October 2004

6 october 2004

Documents