6 growing global stresses and how to handle them
DESCRIPTION
Courtesy of my friend Mitch Lawrie M.Ed (Career Guidance) CDAA B. Regional & Town Planning (Hons). Open, and honest discussion and presentation on the factors faced by all of us right now. The next 20 years will be most telling for us and our planet. There are some very good suggestions on what to do and how to prepare. http://www.transitionwise.org/TRANSCRIPT
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www.TransitionWise.org
Career Quakes Career Quakes
Mitch LawrieM.Ed (Career Guidance) CDAAB. Regional & Town Planning (Hons)
Six Converging Global Stresses& What They May Mean for
Careers!
Six Converging Global Stresses& What They May Mean for
Careers!
CDAA Conference 2010
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Some Suggested “Ground Rules”
Respect for everyone
Remember... Time is precious
Please ask... happy to answer questions but I will also need to keep things moving
Please contribute... But don’t monopolize discussion
Speak up so everyone can hear
Self-responsibility – for what you give & gain from the workshop
Mobile phones off
Confidentiality
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A Show of Hands...
Who is familiar with “Peak Oil”? Who thinks it may be a problem for Australia? Who thinks climate change may be a problem for
Australia? Who thinks exponential growth is an issue for us? Who has heard of the 1972 book “The Limits to Growth”?
Anyone read it? Who thinks conventional economists have a good
understanding of the economy and the world? Who thinks things will go on much the same and we’ll be
having national conferences like this in 10 years time?
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Overview Core cultural belief since Industrial Revolution
– “economic growth is good, essential and unending”
Our beliefs about work & the economy have formed during this unique period of growth
Career theory & practice takes place totally within this unquestioned cultural narrative
Strong evidence global stresses are approaching tipping points that will prove this belief incorrect... Growth will stop
Society, the world of work & careers will enter a “Great Transition”... major change “quakes” within the next 10 years
?
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If True…
Huge impacts on you
Personally
Professionally
And on your clients
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Evidence? I will only briefly introduce the evidence today
The scope of this presentation is large and rarely traversed in the careers field
Needs 1 day... I had to cut >150 slides!
For now please just consider the “end of growth” as a hypothesis... A possible future... And use today as a chance to consider the implications
Please do follow up research to make up your own mind – go to my site:
www.TransitionWise.org for the more details and links to further evidence or just Google
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“People will rarely acknowledge that an accustomed way of life is unsustainable except in the face of prolonged, devastating failure.”
Joseph Tainter – author of…
This Is A Deeply Unpopular Subject
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The ruling “gods” of our culture – Technology and the Market
Our Saviours?
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Warning: Some People May Not Like
This Presentation
Normal reaction when core cultural beliefs are challenged
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Other Common Reactions to Major Belief Challenges
Denial Anger Bargaining Fear & anxiety Depression Acceptance Action
(adapted from Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief)
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Society In Denial
Most societies are in denialabout what we are facing
Politicians don’t like to bring bad news or oppose established paradigms… prophets tend to get stoned, not re-elected
It is easy to belittle a viewpoint which goes against the hugely dominant cultural narrative
Those who question the feasibility of never-ending growth are accused of being hysterical “doomers” or being “negative”
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Confusion Of Realms
Inner
Human
No limits
Creativity
Positive belief
Growth is always good
Outer
Physical
Limits
Sensitivity
Realistic belief
Growth always ends
Experience
Subjective
Impacts
Objective
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My Purpose
Purpose of presentation is not to depress you... but empower you
Provide useful insights and help you prepare
NOTNOT
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Workshop Outline
Six Growing Global Stresses (or “why growth will fail ”)
Putting It All Together – Our Probable Future
Labour Market and Career Impacts
How Can We Prepare?
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www.TransitionWise.org
Global Stress 1
World Oil Production Limits
- The Problem of “Peak Oil”
Chapter 1
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Cheap Oil… Our Society is Built on It!!Absolutely crucial for:
• Transport• Food• Housing• Products
All made with oil!
Most current careers wouldn’t exist without it!
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ONE U.S. POLITICIAN WHO FULLY UNDERSTOOD THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL
Energy is truly fundamental to the world’s economy.
The Gulf War was a reflection of that reality.… (Oil) is the basic, fundamental building block of the world's economy.
Dick Cheney,
Former U.S. Vice-President, London, 1999
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LOOMING WORLD OIL LOOMING WORLD OIL PROBLEMS:PROBLEMS:
MYTHS AND REALITIESMYTHS AND REALITIES
Keynote Address at
Largest Logistics Conference in Southern Hemisphere
The Smart Conference 2007Sydney
Roger H. Bezdek. Ph.D., President
Management Information Services, Inc.
Washington, D.C. USA
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WHY WILL CONVENTIONAL
OIL PRODUCTION PEAK?
Time - Decades
Pro
du
ctio
n
Oil Fields Peak
1945 2000Year
Pro
du
cti
on
U.S Lower 48 States
The world will peak
(All regions)
Regions Peak (Many oil fields)
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WORLD IS CONSUMING MORE OILAND FINDING LESS
Past discovery by ExxonMobil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Bil
lio
ns
of
Ba
rrel
s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Past
Future
Production
“GrowingGap”
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Peak Oil for Individual Nations Japan: 1932 Germany: 1966 Libya: 1970 Venezuela: 1970 USA: 1970 Iran: 1974 Nigeria: 1979 Trinidad & Tobago: 1981 Egypt: 1987 France: 1988 Indonesia: 1991 Syria: 1996 India: 1997 New Zealand: 1997 UK: 1999 Argentina: 1999
Colombia: 1999 Norway: 2000 Oman: 2000 Australia: 2000 Mexico: 2004 Russia: 2007 United Arab Emirates? Algeria?
Estimated future peak oil years: Kuwait: 2013 Saudi Arabia: 2014 Iraq: 2018 China ? (close) Brazil ? Canada ? Kazakstan & Azerbaijan ?
Source: Wikipedia.org
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WHEN MIGHT WORLD PEAKING OCCUR?Different Approximations Lead to Different Forecasts
Forecast Source
December 2005 Deffeyes (U.S.)
2006-2007 Bakhitari (Iran)
2006-2007 Simmons (U.S.)
2010 +/- Skrebowski (U.K.)
2010 Campbell (Ireland)
Before 2010 Goodstein (U.S.)
After 2010 World Energy Council
2012 Weng (China)
2020 IEA (Paris-based monitor)
After 2020 CERA (U.S.)
2030 or later EIA (U.S. Govt)
5 years
5-15 years
> 20 years
Already
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Just A Few of The Headlines
Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third' Sydney Morning Herald March 24, 2010 The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, Britain's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.
Business calls for urgent action on “oil crunch” threat to UK economy London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.
Richard Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years UK Guardian article 7th February 2010
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Queensland Oil Vulnerability Taskforce
Established by the Qld State Government in 2005…
“The Taskforce concludes that Queensland’s vulnerability to peaking of world oil supplies, and to world supply disruptions, is particularly acute given our oil supply and demand trends, as well as our regionally distributed population and industrial base.”
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TECHNOLOGY & PRICE MAY NOT SAVE USU. S. Lower 48 Oil Production
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
80
0
Production
Price
Dramatic Improvement in Oil
Field Technology
PRODUCTION(Billions of
Barrels per Year)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Trends were not reversed, and continued decline is forecast
PRICE(2003 $ per
barrels)
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RENEWABLES WILL SAVE US?
Not necessarily. Long time to scale up.
Major renewables do not produce significant liquid transportation fuels
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WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN AT PEAKING?
WORLD OIL DEMAND
grows each year in a
healthy world economy
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
reaches a maximum &
then declines
Supply cannot meet
demand
• PRICES INCREASE
• SHORTAGES DEVELOP
Time
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GROWING OIL SHORTAGES WILL INDUCE GROWING WORLD “DEMAND DESTRUCTION”
Su
pp
ly
Supply & Demand in
Balance
Minimal Disruption
Recession Depression
Demand Destruction
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OIL PRICE & RECESSIONS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Recession
OIL PRICE
(2003 $ per
barrel)
Over 30 years, four recessions followed oil price spikes.
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NOT TO WORRY, WORLD WILL MUDDLE THROUGH?
Not true. We should be very worried.
The problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society.
Previous energy transitions, from wood to coal and from coal to oil, were gradual and evolutionary.
World may be facing an imminent energy discontinuity that will be abrupt and painful.
World has yet to grasp this or its implications.
There will be no quick fixes for this problem, on either the demand side or the supply side. (“Hirsch Report”)
Many analysts and policy-makers do not comprehend this.
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There’s the bad news and the good news...
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The Bad News... We Peaked in 2000
Australia’s oil imports have risen to 30-40% of net
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CSIRO – Future Fuels Forum – 2008
Forum included:
Caltex Engineers Australia Holden NRMA Qld Rail Chevron Victorian Government Woolworths Australian Automobile Association Biofuels Association of Australia
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Forum: Key Conclusions Australia is more vulnerable than some
other countries due to our high vehicle use, high fuel consumption by vehicles, and declining domestic reserves of conventional oil.
Petrol prices could increase to as high as A$8 per litre by 2018.
Transport intensive activities such as tourism and mining would be most vulnerable.
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If This Is Starting To Get You Down...Then Don’t Despair
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The Good News... Coal Seam Methane Gas Reserves in Central Qld
Massive reserves, but it will take years to develop and we will be paying the (high) international price.
Vehicles can be converted to run on CNG but it takes significant time and large investments.
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Where Does This Leave Australia?
Better off than some countries but not immune... All countries today are strongly linked in the global economy
Will also need to cope with other global stresses around the same time
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www.TransitionWise.org
Global Stress 2
The Climate Change Wildcard
Chapter 2
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Confusing & Controversial!
BUT....
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“In the end, it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees, where the ‘forest' refers to the totality of scientific evidence for global warming.”
Richard L. Smith, in newsletter of American Statistical Association, Section on Statistics & the Environment,
Spring 2007 issue
Totality of Scientific Evidence is Clear
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If You Are Not Sure Who To Believe Read This Book
Balanced examination of both sides of the argument by a “non-greenie”
Gareth Morgan, CEO of his own investment company, couldn't decide whether he believed in climate change or not, so he hired the best international scientists from both sides to answer his questions and these are his findings.
Reveals how both sides have their mistakes and weaknesses
The Verdict: on the balance of probabilities climate change is going to be a real problem
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Sudden, Unpredictable and Irreversible
“Since the IPCC report came out in 2007, new data point to even more alarming scenarios.
We underestimate the risk and ignore the fact that the planet is threatened with "sudden, unpredictable, and irreversible disaster.”
Steve ChuUnited States Secretary of Energy Nobel Prize-Winning Professor of Physics & Molecular Biology
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Tipping Points
Biggest concern of climate scientists
They don’t know exactly when Could start “positive feedback
loops”... Melting ice and snow Tropical jungles dry out and burn Frozen deposits in permafrost and
ocean floor release methane
Runaway climate change!
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“I am not exaggerating in saying the survival of civilisation is at stake.”
Professor Ian LoweEmeritus Professor of Science, Technology and Society
at Griffith University
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Australia... The Lucky Country?
Climate change could mean our luck has run out...
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Warning From The CSIRO
Australia’s climate change impacts include:
More heatwaves
Reductions in average rainfall
More frequent El Nino events (droughts)
Sea level rise
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Rainfall is declining in Eastern Australia
SOURCE: National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 2008.
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Warning From The Garnaut Report
Mitigation will come too late to avoid substantial damage from climate change.
Not feasible for governments to underwrite maintenance of established patterns of life for all people in all places.
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www.TransitionWise.org
Global Stress 3
The Dangerous Nature of Exponential Growth- Ticking Time Bombs
Chapter 3
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“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Al BartlettProfessor of Physics
University of Colorado
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How Exponential Growth Looks
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“It has taken all of human history for the economy to reach its current size. On current form it will take just two decades to double.”
– New Scientist Magazine, Oct
2008
Reaches a Point Where Even 3.6% Per Year Becomes Huge
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What It Means...
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Only A Massive One-Off Drawdown of Fossil Fuels Has Enabled This Growth
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Exponential Growth – Always Temporary in a Finite World
Population and GDP can not grow exponentially without limits
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“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."
Kenneth Boulding (1910-1993) – Economist & Philosopher
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Growth Always Ends
The questions remaining are...
Will it be a “soft landing” or a “hard landing”?
And when?
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www.TransitionWise.org
Global Stress 4
Multiple Other Limits to Growth
Chapter 4
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Not Just Peak Oil... “Peak Many Things” In The Next 20 Years
Food production Topsoil Phosphorous Fish Water supplies Some minerals –
silver, platinum, copper, zinc lead, tin & rare earth minerals
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Even Major Technical Breakthroughs May Have Already Peaked
Source: Jonathan Huebner – Physicist, US Naval Air Warfare Center
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Special Report: How our economy is killing the Earth – New Scientist, 18 Oct
2008
Water useVehiclesCo2GDPPopulationLoss of rainforest and woodlandsSpecies extinctionFisheries exploitation
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World Is In Overshoot
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“A Comparison of "The Limits to Growth" with Thirty Years of Reality”
Graham Turner - CSIRO Working Paper June 2008 found:
“Limits to Growth” (1972, MIT - Club of Rome) study was falsely attacked
30 years of historical data fits their "standard run" scenario
1972 2002
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Business as Usual - “Standard Run” Scenario
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Other Findings from “Limits to Growth” Computer Simulation
If you remove or raise one limit but keep growing exponentially you encounter another surprisingly soon
Globalization of trade means that most of the world will reach limits around the same time
If you put off early limits through economic and technological innovations you are more likely to run into several limits at about the same time
Lesser developed countries likely to fail first... may then have a domino effect on other countries
World will not totally run out of any one resource... what it runs out of is the ability to cope due to multiple problems impacting in a short time span
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Ability to Cope... The Real Limit As resources deplete... (e.g. peak oil)
As pollution levels rise... (e.g. climate change)
The costs of compensating have to be paid out of current economic output, leaving less and less for other uses, until economic output itself begins to fall and the industrial world begins its terminal decline.
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Technology & Markets – Best Case Assumptions Still Lead to Collapse
“In several scenarios we test accelerated technological advance and possible future technical leaps beyond these ‘normal’ improvements. What if materials are almost entirely recycled? What if land yield doubles again and yet again? What if emissions are reduced at 4% per year over the coming century?
Even with the most effective technologies and the greatest economic resilience that we believe is possible, if these are the only changes, the model tends to generate scenarios of collapse.”
(The Limits to Growth – The Thirty Year Update p. 204-5)
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Confronting Reality…
“In the 21st century, the human race must finally confront the reality that in the closed system that is planet earth, there are limits to growth.
No matter how clever we are, there is no escaping the physical limits of the world's resources.
The laws of physics trump the laws of economics every time.”
Andrew McNamara, Former Queensland Minister for Sustainability,
Climate Change and Innovation.
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www.TransitionWise.org
Global Stress 5
House of Cards Economic System
Chapter 5
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This is no normal recession!
“this is the end of an era.”
George Soros - 2008
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GFC = Early Warning Tremor... Growing System Instability
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Mainstream Economics Is Misguided
Failed to predict or prevent GFC
In fact, mainstream “Neoclassical” economics is not a science but a belief system based on false assumptions
Ignores crucial real world issues – debt load, social costs, resource and ecological limits, how humans really behave
Tends to serve the existing power structure
Now giving improbable predictions
Unfortunately, government actions based on it!
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“Conventional economics is the dominant intellectual rationalization of today's world order.
Breakdown will, all at once, discredit this rationalization and create intellectual space for new ideas to flourish.”
Professor Thomas Homer-Dixon Author of The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of
Civilization - winner of the 2006 National Business Book Award
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Alternative Views Needed!
Here are 2…
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1. Debt Deflation Perspective
“Consumer debt expansion is the fuel that kept the U.S. economy alive.”
“The growth of debt has outstripped the growth of income to such an extent that an increase in consumer credit and bank lending is not possible.”
Paul Roberts Former Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, 2008
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Unsustainable Debt Triggers Crashes – 1890s, 1930s, & Now
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Global Banking & Financial System = Giant Ponzi Scheme
It has to keep growing or it collapses
Because almost all money is lent into existence by the world’s banks - the only way the debt can be paid back with interest is if the economy keeps expanding
Otherwise we get bank failures and collapses as in the US, UK and Europe in recent years
System is inherently unstable without exponential growth – this is why G20 nations desperate to prop up growth and have thrown trillions of dollars to stimulate growth
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Governments Have Only Bought Some Time
Only delays the problems as the new government debt increases societies’ total debt
Debt levels are now unsustainable – must come down
But there is too much debt for it all to be paid back when oil is declining, populations aging etc. ... Only other options - defaults followed by hyperinflation
This means a lot of volatility... Deflation, hyperinflation causing economic disruptions with massive impacts on trade and employment
(see www.chrismartenson.com )
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Sometimes A Politicians Lets It Slip That They Too Are Concerned About Debt
“I’m rather pessimistic about the long-term global outlook for a whole host of reasons...
If too much debt got the world into this problem, then too much sovereign debt is not going to get the world out of this problem.”
Shadow Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey
Business Spectator 29 July 2009
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2. Ecological Economics Perspective
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Once Again… Limits to Growth
According to Professor Herman Daly (former Senior Economist at the World Bank and one of the founders of ecological economics )…
Virtual assets (fiat money, bank lending, derivatives) are growing exponentially so large there will not be enough real, physical assets for them to claim in the future
Real wealth is constrained by both source end (e.g. peak oil) and sink end (e.g. capacity of atmosphere to absorb CO2 – climate change) “limits to growth”
Real wealth limits will destabilise the paper wealth system
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www.TransitionWise.org
Global Stress 6
Black Swans – The Unknown Unexpected
Chapter 6
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Historical Turning Points Determined by “Black
Swans” Events
Highly improbable events which are... Unpredictable Massive impact Unexpected and under-estimated Easy to explain only AFTER the event
Example : 9/11attack
Nassim Taleb
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Black Swan Events
An over-populated, highly interconnected world is increasingly vulnerable to things such as…
Global virus pandemics
Major terrorist attack (eg. Water supplies or dirty nuke)
Middle East war or uprising cutting oil supplies – especially in Saudi Arabia or Iran
Or some other natural or man-made disaster… most likely none of the above… the unknown something we never saw coming!
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Discuss in Groups of 3
What do you think the future will hold?
How will this 6 global threats affect the next 10 years... And the next 100 years?
Some volunteers can share with the group... 1 or 2 points of discussion from their triad
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www.TransitionWise.org
Putting It All Together
- Our Probable Future
Chapter 7
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The 3 “Big E’s” Are Converging
Environ-ment
EconomyEnergy
YOU
3 E’s will interact in increasing unpredictable ways
Ultimately Environment and Energy will determine Economy
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Exp
onen
tial G
rowt
h
Socie
ty
Exp
onen
tial G
rowt
h
Socie
ty
Energy & Resource UseEnergy & Resource Use Population Pollution Pollution
ClimaxClimax
Techno-ExplosionTechno-Explosion
Green-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech Stability
Earth stewardshipEarth stewardship
Collapse Collapse
Great Grand Great Grand ChildrenChildren
AgricultureAgriculture10.000yrs BP10.000yrs BP
Industrial Industrial RevolutionRevolution
Baby BoomBaby Boom
Pre-industrial sustainable culture
Pre-industrial sustainable culture
Historical Time Future Time
Creative Descent - Deliberate
Creative Descent - Deliberate
Powerdown
Powerdown
4 Future Scenarios(adapted from David Holmgren www.futurescenarios.org )
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Limits to Growth Modelling Suggests Techno-Explosion & Green Tech Stability
The Least Likely
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Don’t Be Fooled By Current Achievements
As Jared Diamond points out in 'Collapse', often civilizations notoriously produce their most massive buildings and monuments just before they collapse
I’m reminded of the just completed $3.2 billion hole in the ground in Brisbane – The Clem Jones tunnel under the Brisbane River
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Important Points!
How humane and positive the descent is depends on how soon we abandon our denial and attempts to maintain growth economics
No growth in economic scale does NOT have to mean no developments in culture, appropriate technology, education, quality of life and human well being!
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The Questions Are... Will we have a soft landing?
Will the elites that run the nexus of corporate-government power listen in time?
Will the cultural tipping points be reached in time?
Will enough people makes changes in how they live, work and think to force change?
Or will we have a hard crash!
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At Some Point... Expect Some Shocks to the System
“ ... empires behave like all complex adaptive systems. They function in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period.
And then, quite abruptly, they collapse.”
Niall Ferguson - Professor at Harvard Business School
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Energy Descent Scenarios – Smooth Transition Is Least Likely in Real World
Source: www.megatrends2020.com
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Erratic Descent with Sharp Falls & Partial Recoveries Most Likely
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Powerdown Stages
Four stages of dominant economic activity:
1. Abundance industrialism (current growth stage)
2. Scarcity industrialism (first decline stage - next few decades)
3. Salvage societies – when a civilization breaks down, the most efficient economies for a time are those that use its legacies as raw material (latter half of this century)
4. Ecotechnic societies - ecologically balanced and fully sustainable (next century)
Adapted from “The Ecotechnic Future” by John Michael Greer
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Powerdown Stages
These 4 stages will blur into each other as the resources of our abundance industrial society run down.
Here in Australia we need to prepare for scarcity industrialism for at least the next 2-3 decades
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Characteristics of “Collapse”
Collapse doesn't necessarily mean annihilation or a “Mad Max” world
It means returning to a less complex society
Will happen differently in different locations
Sometimes a slow, grinding, almost imperceptible decline, and sometimes a rapid fall triggered by events
Nobody really knows how gradual or abrupt “collapse” may be in your part of the world!
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Outlook
Overall our society is most likely to be on a bumpy plateau for the next 10 years
But some of the bumps could be quite surprising!
The closer we get to 2020 the higher the risk of a sudden system failure (hard crash) as a result of a Black Swan event in combination with the other 5 global stresses
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www.TransitionWise.org
Labour Market &
Career Impacts
Chapter 8
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Next 10 Years(My Expectations)
May be as late as 2014 before world oil demand recovers enough to reveal oil production limits and create very high oil prices.
High oil prices will result in many flow-on price rises
Economy will contract in real terms
Areas remote from major centres and cheap transport (train & ship) will especially suffer from higher costs for goods & services
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Next 10 Years Middle class with large debt most vulnerable
Businesses and careers delivering expensive, non-essential goods and services to the middle class will contract
Economic localization will rise as it becomes cheaper to make more things locally again
Many products will continue to be made by machines... but increasingly repaired locally by hand (embodied energy in products will be more valued)
Decline of permanent, full-time jobs... growth of the informal economy – unofficial, under-the-table activities from barter to blackmarkets
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Unemployment Will Increase... Dejobbing
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Next 10 Years Forced entrepreneurship... one example of this... In
1932, the New York Times observed that in NY city in: 1928 – 200 shoe shiners (most of them children 1932 - 7,000 shoe shiners (most of them adults)
Many not able to afford to retire – this is already happening in the USA (end of the era of “grey nomads” etc.)
Many white collar, tourism, mining and construction jobs will be vulnerable – think through the impacts of high fuel prices e.g. demise of cheap flights
Alternative energy sector will expand – particularly Coal Seam Methane Gas (CSG) in eastern Australia (close to markets)
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Next 10 Years
As energy per capita declines tipping points, breakdowns or Black Swans will be reached resulting in less economic system capacity to support complexity
Another trend reversal will result... decreased job specialisation
We will need a “Great Reskilling” – how to do practical things for ourselves and our neighbours
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Stepping Down Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
Our economy is mostly discretionary spending... not needed for survival!
Spending focus will shift to lower order needs – security and physical needs
From nice-to-have things to need-to-have things
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Job Shift – From Wants to Needs
Discretionary Jobs (nice-to-have things)
Less employment here:
Mobile dog baths Beautician Luxury goods salesperson Market analyst Tourism Fitness trainer Party planner Spa installer Legal academic Stock broker
Necessary Jobs (need-to-have things)
More employment here:
Farmer Health practitioner Carpenter (e.g. altering large
houses for higher occupancy) Plumber Security services and products Renewable energy installer Auto LPG converter Repairer Electrician
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Decline In Agricultural Employment Will Reverse
After its “peak oil” in early 90’s Cuba found that it required 15 –25% of its population to become involved in food production.
Food prices will rise. Agricultural employment may increase from about 3% to 15% (or higher) of total employment… practicing low input intensive farming
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Men Will Be Hardest Hit
The Soviet Union collapse experience demonstrated that some people adapt poorly
Men, especially middle-aged successful men, are most vulnerable
Just completely lose it... mental health problems, family breakdown and alcohol and drug problems
Especially if no identity other than career... Community, friends, spirituality and hobbies really important
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www.TransitionWise.org
How Can We Prepare?
Chapter 9
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Powerdown & Career Development
Even if you do not view this as the most likely future scenario the magnitude of the potential impacts in conjunction with the precautionary principle suggest it still deserves our attention.
Career development is a specialised field which will shrink a lot if we do not adapt to be of value in the new era.
Will need to start preparing early for these historical changes.
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Group Discussion
At your table form small groups (4-6 participants) Find someone willing to takes some notes and later....
briefly share with all of us Brainstorm ideas on how can we respond to these
challenges and prepare in the following areas:1. Psychological strategies (for ourselves and others)
2. Practical strategies (for ourselves and others)
3. Career strategies (for ourselves and others)
4. Career Development Practice strategies (for our daily work with clients or students)
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We Need to Prepare…
As individuals (psychologically and practically)
As families and networks of friends
As workers (career managers) & business owners
As communities
As a nation
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Some to get you started...
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Psychological Strategies
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Why Bother?? It All Seems Too Hard!
Prepare... help yourself so you can help others more in the future.
You will be needed!
(Find meaning in your new life)
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Human Potential Is Still Amazing!
Inner
Human
No limits
Creativity
Positive belief
Growth is always good
Outer
Physical
Limits
Sensitivity
Realistic belief
Growth always ends
Experience
Subjective
Impacts
Objective
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Good News… “The Myth of the Great Depression”
David Potts – Former historian at La Trobe Uni Extensive research including 12,000 interviews Found media image over-emphasised suffering Found many good aspects to life in 1930s No increase in suicide, mental illness, malnutrition Health of the community as a whole actually improved “We were poor but happy!” “Feel sorry for the kids of today.” Sources of happiness: doing things together, being in the
same boat and feeling closer, “being philosophical,” family, self-expression (singing & dancing), helping others, sport and for some, freedom from a boring job.
Strong evidence for potential for happiness when poverty is familiar, manageable and not isolating
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This Is An Opportunity For Personal Growth and Rediscovery
“To be thrown upon one's own resources, is to be cast into the very lap of fortune; for our faculties then undergo a development and display an energy of which they were previously unsusceptible.”
— Benjamin Franklin
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Consider The Possibility…
If poverty is just less stuff But more connection and meaning Those who are willing to let go of their old beliefs and
attachments Can actually be happier!!
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Our Greatest Challenge?
The rise of consumerism, individualism and industrial alienation has weakened the values, stories and habits which enabled our ancestors to live & work together in hard times...
Have we become “human lites”?!
Fundamental challenge on both an individual and planet level is “spiritual” i.e. our deep inner beliefs... How we perceive and connect to ourselves, others, and the world
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www.TransitionWise.org
Practical Strategies
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Preparing For What?
Two key scenarios you may wish to prepare for:1. Economic contraction / hard times (on the
bumpy plateau) lower real incomes and higher unemployment e.g. the USA today
2. Major System breakdowns (a sharp drop) which may cause... Financial collapses – banks, employers,
government services , insurance companies, superannuation funds
Disruptions to support systems – infrastructure and “just in time” food & product delivery systems e.g. supermarkets, water and electricity
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Risk Reduction Planning
1. Decide to act – if not ready… educate yourself more on 6 Global Stresses and our predicament
2. Identify and rank your key threats
3. Self assess – Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of your and your situation
4. Brainstorm and prioritize actions
A list – easiest, quickest, cheapest
B list – big, important needs
C list – the rest
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When Brainstorming Consider... Life Areas = Your Resilience Zones
Money
Health
Spirit
Career
Family
Friends
You
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Personal Risk Reduction Tips
Monitor trends via specialised internet sources, not mainstream media
Learn to allow for and balance the biases of each information source
Plan, prepare and act early
Assess your location – consider access to work, services, transport, food, family and friends
Invest in yourself - learn practical new skills for hobbies eg. Growing food (permaculture, aquaponics), beer brewing, repairing things, herbal medicine
Get healthy – exercise, eat healthy, sleep 8 hours
Eat less meat (good for the environment & you)
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Personal Risk Reduction Tips
Avoid “Affluenza”… mindless consumerism and unproductive debt. Sell unnecessary consumer goods & toys (eg. power boats, vacation homes). Practice voluntary simplicity
Assess your investments – consider carefully what shares (if any) and property you want to hold
Increase cash and cash substitutes (gold & silver)
Cultivate emotional resilience - friends, community, spiritualty, exercise, flexible attitude, and a self-identity beyond your full-time job
Store 1- 3 months food at home (grains, beans, pastas, canned foods)
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Personal Risk Reduction Tips
Install solar hot water, PV panels, and insulation while government support for these still exists
Build good relationships with others with useful skills and resources… grow your community
Support community adaptations such as farmer markets... trying to be an isolated individual survivalist is not practical
Consider new transport options – public, bicycle, LPG conversion, or electric conversion
Remember… the better politicians/leaders need all the support they can get.
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Personal Risk Reduction Tips
Get active in your local community... the challenges we face can not be addressed only on an individual level(This will benefit you, both practically and psychologically, as well as your community)
For a positive, action oriented community-based approach to the six global stresses consider joining or starting a Transition Towns initiative in your area. See www.transitiontowns.org for more information.
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Paper Wealth May Implode - Consider The Implications:
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www.TransitionWise.org
Career Strategies
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Radical Implications for Careers
First Revolution – Agriculture
Second Revolution – Industry
Third Revolution – Sustainable Steady-State
Economy & Society (or devolution - collapse survivalism)
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In a Revolution You Are Either a...
Revolutionary – alert, self-aware, informed, networked, opportunity observant, self-directed & action-oriented
Lucky bystander – right skills, place, time, and/or connections
Victim – reliant on the old institutions, ways & belief systems (“Where’s my... Happy meal, remote, job, dole cheque??”)
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When Looking for Solutions Remember...
“The most dynamic forces emerge from outside elite circles: geeks, iconoclasts and maligned populations”Joshua Ramo - The Age of the Unthinkable – Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do About It, 2009
That is to say… look to the fringe more than the traditional centre for new ways to adapt to a changing world
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Reversing the “Great Deskilling”? Over the last 100 years we have lost the skills to meet
most of our own needs – growing & producing many things in & around the home
As energy and transport costs rise and complex global production, supply and distribution systems step down or breakdown there will be a return to meeting more needs locally
“Forced entrepreneurship” trend – Laid off workers weary of looking for work, will create their own
Practical short courses and hands-on apprenticeships (whether formal or informal) enabling people to meet local needs will be needed
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Career Risk Reduction Tips
Assess your current career… seek “passion” career or “defensive” career
Avoid careers in industries highly dependent on a growing economy and cheap oil (e.g. tourism)
Meet local needs in an economy which can no longer afford to transport food, materials, products, and people as much as in the past.
Practical skills more valuable than non-essential specialized roles requiring an affluent society(Probably less demand for plastic surgeons, fashion consultants, interior designers,
mortgage brokers, financial advisers, sales & marketing etc.)
Plan back-up options such as an auto electrician who develops an interest in electric cars.
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Career Risk Reduction Tips
Improve career resilience by developing a diverse range of skills and options
Consider decline-proof careers – debt collectors, pawn shops, recycling & asset stripping, drugs & alcohol, security, military, essential public services, alternative medicine, alternative transport (Google “Dmitry Orlov” for the Russian experience)
Consider the Green energy sector as well as the oil and gas industry (rising prices & skills shortage)
Avoid jobs requiring long car commutes to work
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Some Possible Job Growth Areas- from The Clean Tech Revolution, Pernick & Walker, 2008
Harness renewable materials and energy sources plus reduce the use of natural resources by using them more efficiently
Jobs in production, management, deployment and distribution
Job Areas: Solar Energy Wind power Other renewable energies – geothermal, wave, tidal Energy delivery - Smart grid and battery systems Biofuels and biomaterials Green buildings Personal and public transport Water provision (filtration, conservation, etc.) Natural Gas – conventional and unconventional
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www.TransitionWise.org
Career Development Practice Strategies
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General Suggestions for Career Advisers
Important for career advisers to question embedded societal beliefs and keep informed on the 6 Global Stresses
Calm, balanced risk management approach recommended
One major element to be incorporated into the career counselling process – not the sole focus
Need to deal wisely with institutional, political and practical realities
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New Career Theories Needed
With less stable occupations and work environments the person-environment fit model may be less useful
Approaches such as Jim Bright’s Chaos Theory of Careers more relevant to changing and chaotic systems
In times of rapid change the best we can do may be an open sharing of what works and what doesn’t
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Useful Career Guidance Distinctions
Passion career or practical career (defensive)?
Pre- collapse career and post-collapse careers
Primary career and back-up options/skills
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www.TransitionWise.org
Where To From Here?
Chapter 12
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Websites for Learning More - Go to TransitionWise.org for these links & more
Peak Oil Sites www.theoildrum.com (world energy & the future issues) www.anz.theoildrum.com (Australian focus on energy & the future) www.aspo-australia.org.au
Climate Change Sites www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au www.bom.gov.au/climate/change
Economic Change Sites www.debtdeflation.com (Prof. Steve Keen’s excellent blog)
www.chrismartenson.com (see the “Crash Course”)
Collapse Commentary (Worst-Case Scenario?) Sites www.carolynbaker.net (compiled by a historian & psychotherapist) www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net (most famous peak oil “doomer” site) www.peakoilblues.com (dealing with the psychological impacts)
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Do A Course
Sustainable Livelihoods: Now, In Transition and Post Peak
at www.PostPeakLiving.com
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Final Thoughts…
Nothing stays the same!
Enjoy life, appreciate what you’ve got, but don’t get too attached to it.
Remember “quality of life” is different from “standard of living.”
Major change can be paralysing or exciting depending on your mindset – those who are mentally prepared will do much better.
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To Wrap Things Up...
1. Print clearly your email address on the if you want to receive an email with a link to the download of an updated version of this powerpoint presentation.
2. Place a tick () after your email address if you want to be added to a Google Group I’ll set up for those who want to continue dialogue and information sharing after the workshop
3. If you found today valuable please write your name, position, and a sentence or two feedback that I may use on my TransitionWise.org website
Thank you!
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P.S. Brief Action Plan
Don’t waste this learning experience... What are you going to check out or do as a result of what you learnt?
Write it down now!
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Questions??