6 city report

0

50

100

150

200

250

3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10

Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake

2009-2010 Monthly Unit SalesSouthwest California

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 3/10

Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake

2009-2010 Median PriceSouthwest California

May Demand Chart

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

On Market (Supply) Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market % Selling Months Supply

537

383

194

73

67

2.8

415 3

68

179

67

68

2.3

305 2

51

132

67

70

2.3

271

213

103

68

69

2.6

140

55

19

74 5

0 7.4

76 6

228

79 5

6 2.7

Murrieta Temecula Lake Elsininore Menifee Canyon Lake Wildomar

Data courtesy of MRMLS

Market by Activity & Sales Type

May Market Activity by Sales Type

Active Closed Failed In Escrow%

ActivityBank Owned 20% 42% 7% 31% 27%Short Sales 47% 32% 67% 51% 47%Standard Sales 33% 26% 26% 18% 26%Other 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

Data courtesy of StatsforAgents.com

2010 Midyear Update Luncheon: “Looking Back to Look Forward”

Joel SingerExecutive Vice PresidentCALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

SHOWCASE LUNCHEONJune 10, 2010

Where We’ve Been: A Look Back at California Housing Cycles

• Familiar Patterns – Different Causations

• Prices are no longer sticky going down

• Real cost of housing does matter

• Record sales may not mean market

sustainability

• California Housing has (always) shown

resiliency

Overview: 3 Recent Housing Cycles

UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price

California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price

-61% -25%

-44%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Peak to trough sales vs prices 1980s: -61% but median price flat Mortgage rates very high 1990s: -25% median down 6 years in 1990’s but not by much Initially affordability redirected market inland, eventually base closures impact felt throughout the state 2000s: -47% and CA median price experienced unprecedented drop: - 58.8% in two years (2007-2009) Downturn started inland with sub prime defaults, eventually spread statewide as recession deepened

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,00019

7019

7219

7419

7619

7819

8019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

08

CaliforniaUSCA Price Trend

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

California vs. U.S. Median Prices1970-2009

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Housing Affordability IndexCalifornia Vs. U.S. – 1984-2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

US - CA CA US

% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY, ANNUAL RATE

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Traditional Housing Affordability Index

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Traditional Housing Affordability Index.

Mortgage Financing: Longer-term Trends and Realities

• Shift from Dedicated Housing Lenders

• Refi’s Add Risk/Constrict Capital

• Gov’t Dependency is at All time Highs

• Real Issue: Whither the GSE’s?

US Home Mortgage Debt Growth %1972 to 2009

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board

-2-10123456789

1011121314151617181920

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

notes on the data from HAVER: Domestic debt comprises credit market funds borrowed by U.S. entities from both domestic and foreign sources, while foreign debt represents amounts borrowed by foreign financial and nonfinancial entities in U.S. markets only. Financial sectors consist of government-sponsored enterprises, agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools, and private financial institutions. Credit market debt consists of debt securities, mortgages, bank loans, commercial paper, consumer credit, U.S. government loans, and other loans and advances; it excludes trade debt, loans for the purpose of carrying securities, and funds raised from equity sources. � Growth rates in table D.1 are calculated by dividing seasonally adjusted flows from table D.2 by seasonally adjusted levels at the end of the previous period from table D.3. Seasonally adjusted levels in flow of funds statistics are derived by carrying forward year-end levels by seasonally adjusted flows. Growth rates calculated from changes in unadjusted levels printed in table L.2 can differ from those in table D.1.

US Home Mortgage Debt Outstanding1-4 Residences 1949 to 2009

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Q1-

1970

Q1-

1972

Q1-

1974

Q1-

1976

Q1-

1978

Q1-

1980

Q1-

1982

Q1-

1984

Q1-

1986

Q1-

1988

Q1-

1990

Q1-

1992

Q1-

1994

Q1-

1996

Q1-

1998

Q1-

2000

Q1-

2002

Q1-

2004

Q1-

2006

Q1-

2008

In Millions

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board

Presenter

Presentation Notes

FMDH1@USECON DescriptionMortgage Debt Outstanding: One to Four family Residences (EOP,Mil.$) SourceFederal Reserve Board FrequencyQuarterly

CA Real Estate 1-4 Residential LoansCommercial Banking Institutions vs. Savings Institutions

SOURCE: FDIC

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000220,000240,000260,000280,000300,000320,000340,000360,000380,000400,000

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Commercial Banks S&LsIn Millions

Presenter

Presentation Notes

LOANS OF FDIC INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS AND TRUST COMPANIES: CALIFORNIA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1/

90

Q1/

91

Q1/

92

Q1/

93

Q1/

94

Q1/

95

Q1/

96

Q1/

97

Q1/

98

Q1/

99

Q1/

00

Q1/

01

Q1/

02

Q1/

03

Q1/

04

Q1/

05

Q1/

06

Q1/

07

Q1/

08

Q1/

09

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%Refinance Share (%) Purchase Share (%)Fixed Rate Mortgage

30- YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGEREFINANCE/PURCHASE SHARE

Refinance vs. Purchase Share

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The Quarterly FRM is derived from FHLMC 3 month average.

Mar-10 Apr-09 Apr-08

Sub Prime Loans Outstanding 289,278 363,274 485,222

% Owner Occupied 94% 94% 94%

% Cash Out Refi (Sub Prime Owner Occ) 65% 61% 55%

Alt A Loans Outstanding 554,587 643,511 722,049

% Owner Occupied 80% 80% 81%

% Cash Out Refi (Alt-A Owner Occ) 48% 47% 45%

Cash Out Refinances Drove Subprime & Alt-A Refis

Source: FirstAmerican CoreLogic, LoanPerformance Data, U.S. Census Bureau, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York

By 2005 53.5% of New CA Loans were “Jumbos” Above the Maximum Conforming Loan Limit

(New First Mortgage)

96%

4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Conforming Loans Jumbo Loans Loan Limit

Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey

Presenter

Presentation Notes

As the housing market boomed and prices escalated, Jumbo Loans rose as a % of new first mortgages.

Sub-Prime Share Below 10% Until 2004

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sub Prime Alt-A HEL

% of Dollar Volume

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Data from Inside Mortgage Finance, March 5, 2010 Mortgage Originations by Product (Dollars in Billions). % share of total US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1991 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

All Hombuyers First-Time BuyersRepeat Buyers

Down-payments also reflect affordability By 2006 40% of 1st timers put zero down

5.0%

3.7%

2.8%


Presenter

Presentation Notes

The % of first time buyers with zero down swelled from 6.8% in 1998 to 40.9% 2006.

2nd Mortgages Also Track Affordability ChallengeOver 30% in 1981-82 and 2005-07

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%19

81

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%Purchases Made with Second MortgageHousing Affordability Index (HAI)

Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey, C.A.R. Housing Affordability Index

% 2nd MtgsCA-HAI

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Early 80”s response was to high mortgage rates Mid 2000’s it was high home prices

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

FRM ARM Other

Share of ARM’s Rises As Affordability Deteriorates: Fuels demand for housing


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Data goes as far back as 1983.

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Aggregate Securitized Jumbo LoansAggregate Securitized Subprime LoansAggregate Securitized Alt-A Loans

Active Pool BalancesUS Residential Secondary Mortgage Market

SOURCE: Moody’s Analytics

In $ Billions

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Jumbo Loan data through March-2009 Subprime loan data through Feb-2009 Alt-A loan data through Apr-2008

The Crash

.Decimated Secondary

markets

Historically unprecedented price

declines

Equally unprecedented delinquencies, foreclosures

Decimated Secondary markets


declines


Decimated Secondary markets


declines


• Decimated secondary markets

• Historically unprecedented price declines

• Equally unprecedented delinquencies, foreclosures

Four Year Housing Boom 2002 – 2005

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan-

00A

pr-0

0Ju

l-00

Oct

-00

Jan-

01A

pr-0

1Ju

l-01

Oct

-01

Jan-

02A

pr-0

2Ju

l-02

Oct

-02

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct

-04

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08A

pr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10A

pr-1

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sales Consumer Confidence INDEXUNITS

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

Housing Boom

Presenter

Presentation Notes

California, April 2010 Sales: 483,830 Units, -8.1% YTY, -7.2% YTD

P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230

-59% frompeak

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000Ja

n-01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Unprecedented Impact on Statewide Median Price Down 59% in Two Years


Presenter

Presentation Notes

California, April 2010: $306,230, Up 21.0% YTY 2nd YTY price gain in over 2 years. Largest year-to-year increase in over 3 years (April 2006 @+10.3%) The monthly gain was the 10th in a row Now up 25% from trough in Feb-09

CA Peak to Trough Price Decline: -59%Sacramento Region First to Peak Aug 2005

Region Peak Month Peak Price Trough

MonthTrough Price

% Chg From Peak

Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 Feb-09 $241,130 -69.8%High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 May-09 $106,210 -68.3%Riverside/San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 Apr-09 $156,840 -62.2%Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 Apr-09 $150,140 -61.8%CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 Feb-09 $245,170 -58.8%Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 Apr-09 $167,340 -57.6%San Francisco Bay Area May-07 $853,910 Feb-09 $399,040 -53.3%Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 Feb-09 $310,950 -51.8%Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 Mar-09 $295,100 -51.2%Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 Feb-09 $359,630 -49.4%Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 Feb-09 $445,000 -48.8%San Diego May-06 $622,380 Mar-09 $326,830 -47.5%San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 Apr-09 $338,160 -45.5%Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 Jan-09 $423,100 -43.4%


Presenter

Presentation Notes

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Q1-

1979

Q2-

1980

Q3-

1981

Q4-

1982

Q1-

1984

Q2-

1985

Q3-

1986

Q4-

1987

Q1-

1989

Q2-

1990

Q3-

1991

Q4-

1992

Q1-

1994

Q2-

1995

Q3-

1996

Q4-

1997

Q1-

1999

Q2-

2000

Q3-

2001

Q4-

2002

Q1-

2004

Q2-

2005

Q3-

2006

Q4-

2007

Q1-

2009

Delinquency Rate - CA Delinquency Rate - L/T Avg

Foreclosure Rate - CA Foreclosure Rate L/T Avg

Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates Rose RapidlyCalifornia: Q1-2010, NSA

SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association

Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.2%

Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.1%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Foreclosure rate rising since the second half of 2005 Delinquency Rate, Low: 1.82% in Q1 2005, PRIOR CYCLE – PREVIOUS High: 6.06% in Q4 1982�Foreclosure Rate, Low: 0.12% in Q4 1979, PRIOR CYCLE – PREVIOUS High: 1.99% in Q1 1997

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jan-

05

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5

Oct

-05

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Notices of Default Trustee's Deeds

NODs & Trustees Deeds Escalated2005 - present

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com, C.A.R.

No. of Defaults or TDs

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Notice of Default filings dropped substantially in March from the prior year. Last year, filings reached record levels when lenders caught up on a backlog of filings after delays caused by new notice requirements introduced in California Senate Bill 1137.

74.0%

19.3%

6.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2004

.10

2005

.01

2005

.04

2005

.07

2005

.10

2006

.01

2006

.04

2006

.07

2006

.10

2007

.01

2007

.04

2007

.07

2007

.10

2008

.01

2008

.04

2008

.07

2008

.10

2009

.01

2009

.04

2009

.07

2009

.10

2010

.01

2010

.04

Under 500 500 to 999 1 Mil +

Lower-priced Sales Dominate the MarketOctober 2004 – present

SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Sub-$500k peaked in Jan-09 at 85% Market shares have been stable over the past 6 mos.

$0$20,000$40,000

$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000

$140,000$160,000$180,000$200,000

$220,000$240,000

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Net Cash To Sellers Peaked 2004 – 2007Now Back to Mid-90’s

Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?Source: CAR Annual Housing Market Survey

$50,000Median

1/3 of Sellers with Loss in 2009, Up Significantly from Mid-2000s

32.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%19

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?Source: CAR Annual Housing Market Survey

Long Run Average = 9.3%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The number of sellers who sold their home with a loss increased for the fifth year to 32.9 percent. It was the highest percentage since C.A.R started tracking the statistics.

Where We are Today

We are past the bottom in almost all sectors

Distressed sales remain (and will for some time)

Price appreciation differentials

Areas of weakness

Price Range (Thousand) Apr-10 Mar-10 Apr-09

$1,000K+ 9.7 10.9 18.7$750-1000K 6.4 6.2 10.3$500-750K 5.4 5.1 5.8$300-500K 4.5 4.2 4.1$0-300K 3.3 3.2 3.0

Distressed Inventories Lean

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Properties Under Contract in CAMay 2010: 21,432 Units, Down 16.9% MTM, Up 2.0 YTY

UNITS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000Se

p-06

Nov

-06

Jan-

07M

ar-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep-

07N

ov-0

7Ja

n-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8Se

p-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09M

ar-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep-

09N

ov-0

9Ja

n-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

SOURCE: Clarus MarketMetrics, compiled by C.A.R.

Based on Selected MLSs in California

Preliminary Data for 5/2010

Presenter

Presentation Notes

MLSs: SocalMLS MLSListings MRMLS SFMLS itech - Glendale and Pasadena FRESNO Sandicor STAOR TSIERRA TCREALTORS SNVMLS SVMAR NCAOR CCRMLS CDAR DCAOR TCMLS CMAR Baker VVAR MERCED (in July 09 Merced began being measured in calREDD MLS. Historical numbers from Sept 07 to present are reflective of the MLS change.)

County/Region May-10 MTM % Change

YTY % Change

LA, Orange, Riverside, & San Bernardino 13,526 -8.7% 16.0%Palm Spring, Palm Desert 871 -14.1% 19.8%San Diego 1,961 -19.2% -2.6%San Luis Obispo 394 -12.1% 5.9%Central Contra Costa, Alameda 2,365 -18.3% 1.5%Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma 1,546 -13.6% 14.8%Monterey, San Benito, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz 2,843 -3.2% 16.2%

Pendings down MTM but up YTY(MLS data)

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics for various MLSs, compiled by C.A.R.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

So CA CARETS (LA, Orange, Riverside, & San Bernardino) CA Desert (Palm Spring, Palm Desert) SANDICOR (San Diego) Central Coast Central Coast Regional MLS (San Luis Obispo) Bay Area Max EBRD (Central Contra Costa, Alameda) BAREIS (Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma) MLS Listings (Monterey, San Benito, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz)

CA Trough to Current PriceAll Regions up from Bottom

Region Trough Month

Trough Price

Apr-10 Median

% Chg From Trough

San Francisco Bay Area Feb-09 $399,040 $583,280 46.2%Santa Clara Feb-09 $445,000 $628,000 41.1%Monterey Region Feb-09 $241,130 $326,360 35.3%Palm Springs/Lower Desert Apr-09 $150,140 $197,040 31.2%CALIFORNIA Feb-09 $245,170 $306,230 24.9%Ventura Feb-09 $359,630 $442,610 23.1%High Desert May-09 $106,210 $127,300 19.9%San Diego Mar-09 $326,830 $388,480 18.9%Riverside/San Bernardino Apr-09 $156,840 $183,970 17.3%Orange County Jan-09 $423,100 $491,120 16.1%San Luis Obispo Apr-09 $338,160 $390,240 15.4%Los Angeles Mar-09 $295,100 $338,970 14.9%Northern Wine Country Feb-09 $310,950 $355,000 14.2%Sacramento Apr-09 $167,340 $188,100 12.4%


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Serious Delinquency Rates Are Leveling OffFannie Mae: Conventional Single Family

SOURCE: Fannie Mae Monthly Volume Summary

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%M

ar-0

9

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug

-09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Note: Delinquency rate in Feb. 2008 was 1.1%

County/Region Apr-09 Mar-10 Apr-10

Kern NA 54.1% 50.3%Los Angeles 50.5% 26.8% 26.1%Orange 36.5% 16.9% 17.0%Riverside/San Bernardino 78.8% 48.1% 40.5%Sacramento NA 39.6% 38.7%San Diego NA 24.1% 20.7%San Luis Obispo 37.2% 28.1% 27.1%

REO Share of Total Sales is Declining


REO Sales to Total Sales Ratio

County/Region Apr-09 Mar-10 Apr-10

Kern NA 17.5% 18.4%Los Angeles 14.5% 22.5% 22.9%Orange 19.0% 23.6% 23.2%Riverside/San Bernardino 8.8% 23.3% 22.5%Sacramento NA 24.7% 23.6%San Diego NA 6.0% 7.8%San Luis Obispo 10.4% 17.1% 11.8%

Short Sales are on Upward Trend


Short Sales to Total Sales Ratio

California Foreclosure Filings DownMay 2010: 21,883 NODs • 26,123 NTSs

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,000

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug

-07

Sep-

07O

ct-0

7N

ov-0

7D

ec-0

7Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8A

pr-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8A

ug-0

8Se

p-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Aug

-09

Sep-

09O

ct-0

9N

ov-0

9D

ec-0

9Ja

n-10

Feb-

10M

ar-1

0A

pr-1

0M

ay-1

0

Notice of Trustee Sale - Counts Notice of Defaults - Counts

SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

6 Month Average:

NODs: 29,623

NTSs: 28,218

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Notice of Default filings dropped substantially in March from the prior year. Last year, filings reached record levels when lenders caught up on a backlog of filings after delays caused by new notice requirements introduced in California Senate Bill 1137.

CancellationsMay-10: 13,719 REOs • 4,027 Sold to 3rd Party • 17,262 Cancelled

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

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30,000

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REOs Sold to 3rd Party Cancellations

SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

6 Month Average:

REO: 13,709

3rd Party: 3,741

Cancelled: 15,553

Presenter

Presentation Notes

3rd Party purchases at foreclosure sales hit a new record in March, crossing 4,000 properties for the first time with the combined purchases totaling more than $840 Million. The increase in cancellations appears to be primarily driven by filing errors, as evidenced by an early cancellation or by statutory requirement as evidenced by the sale being postponed beyond the maximum time allowed under law. Still more than half of the 16,513 cancellations occurred mid-foreclosure indicating a likely loan modification or short sale.

Median Price to Median HH Income Ratio

Historic Increase in AffordabilityCalifornia

6

4

10

6

4.5

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Average Over Years Shown: 6:1 Ratio

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Proportion of First-Time HomebuyersCalifornia

47.0%

38.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?Source: C.A.R. Annual Housing Market Survey

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Share of first-time buyers increased from 35.9 percent in 2008 to 47.0 percent in 2009, and has surged passed the long-run average of 38.6 percent. The jump in the share of first-time buyers was due primarily to the steep decline in home prices, low levels of interest rates, and the first-time buyer tax credit.

Investors Share of Current Market-Average Overall Share of Buying Side of Transactions-

40.30%

33.50%

26.20%

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10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

First-Time Buyers (%) Repeat Buyers (%) Investor Buyers (%

Jan-10 Mar-10

Source: C.A.R. Broker Confidence Survey

Please tell us what share of your real estate business on the buying side of the transaction is devoted to

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Note first asked in 2010

FHA and VA Mortgages(First Mortgage)

Q. Please indicate the type of mortgageCAR 2009 Annual Housing Market Survey

32.0%

4.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

FHA VA

73%

13%

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40%

60%

80%

100%20

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Jumbo Share of Mortgage OriginationsOff Sharply since 2007

SOURCE: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Have not seen any update to this as of 08/2009 – ss.

SOURCE: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.

Fed & Treasury Market Intervention Drives Conf/Jumbo Spread Toward “Normal”…But Not There Yet

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Conv/Conf 30-Yr FRM N.C Jumbo 30-Yr FRM Spread

Note: data for research purposes only, do not redistribute

L/R Avg Spread: 1.6%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Rates are calculated based on weekly averages provided by Inside Mortgage Finance “The Mortgage Market at a Glance…” weekly reports. For those weeks where no reports were generated, that week was omitted from the average calculation.

2010 Forecast:

Market 2010 and Beyond

• Worst of market decline has past• Sales:

• CA: recovering since late 2007• US: bottom in late 2007, recovering since mid 2009

– Prices:• CA & US : trough in early 2009, up since

• Name of the game: Financing• Distressed properties in many markets for next 2--3 yrs• Flow of distressed loans managed by lenders, some

loans diverted by Fed programs• High end markets constrained by jumbo financing, but

situation is improving

California Housing Market Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

SFH Resales (000s) 601.8 624.7 625.0 477.5 346.9 439.8 546.5 521.0

% Change 5.1% 3.8% 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 26.8% 24.3% -4.7%

Median Price ($000s) $371.5 $450.8 $522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $346.4 $275.0 $300.0

% Change 17.5% 21.3% 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -38.2% -20.6% 9.1%

30-Yr FRM 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 5.3%

1-Yr ARM 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.2%

Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Forecast Date: June 2010

Presenter

Presentation Notes

As you can see here, we expect sales for 2010 to fall in the low to mid 500,000 range. They will be somewhat lower than sales from last year. However, the median price will increase for the first time in 3 years, with a 9 percent gain to $300,000. Mortgage rates will remain low this year, contributing to affordability.

New Construction Will ReturnCA New Housing Permits: -83% FROM 2004

0

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100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,00019

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Single Family Multi-Family

SOURCE: CBIA

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Red line represents approximate number of new households per year (estimated range: 220 to 250 thousand per year)

Homeownership RatesCalifornia Vs. U.S.

SOURCE: U.S, Census Bureau

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1984

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CA US

Presenter

Presentation Notes

But California rate has lagged US rate by 10+ percent for most of period

Buyers Remain Optimistic on Prices

All Buyers, 2010 1 year 5 years 10 years

Up 23% 52% 76%

Down 0% 0% 0%

Flat 28% 12% 2%

Don't Know 48% 36% 22%

Q. Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down, or stay flat in 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?Source: C.A.R. 2010 Survey of California Home Buyers

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Home Buyers were more optimistic about future home prices than buyers in 2009. Nearly a quarter (23 percent) of them believed that home prices in their neighborhood will go up in one year, as compared to 8 percent in 2009.

Thank You

Joel [email protected]

6 city report

Business

federal reserve

inside mortgage

current priceall

equally unprecedented

historically

seasonally

priced sales

filings reached