5th annual state of the retail nation - latimer appleby market research consultants

7/27/2019 5th Annual State of the Retail Nation - Latimer Appleby Market Research Consultants

1/39

5th

Annual State of the Retail NationNational Shopping Centre Managers

Survey 2013


2/39

Latimer Appleby 2013 2 Base: 136, Shopping Centre Managers Fieldwork: June 2013

Background and Methodology

In late June 2013, Latimer Appleby, in conjunction with Shopping CentreMagazine conducted an online survey of shopping centre managers.

The research study collates

and analyses views on the

UK shopping centre from

the in-field practitioner,

including: the impact of the

wider UK economy; current

trading conditions; and theoutlook for the next twelve

months.

A total of 136 responses

were received, which is the

highest response rate ever

achieved for this annual

survey.

First conducted in 2009

and where possible, the

results are compared

directly to the four

previous studies.


3/39

Sample profile

200

units150-199

units

46% 35% 10% 7% 2% Average sizein sample =

66 units



4/39

1918

12 12

9

17

13 13

9

11

14

12

15

11

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

Empty

units/closures

Footfall The recession Keeping tenants

happy

Service charge

savings

%2013

2012

2011

Empty units/store closures, footfall and the recession

have been the biggest challenges over the past 12

months


Top 5 challenges over the past 12 months


5/39

Driving footfall is the top challenge over the next 12

months and has been so for the past three years

20

16

13 1312

18

1516

1314

20

17

13 13

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

Driving footfall Filling voids Keeping retailers

happy

Increasing

sales/spend

Dealing with the

economy

%2013

2012

2011

Top 5 challenges over the next 12 months



6/39

Tenant demand for a reduction in service charges has

continued to increase since 2011

47%

41%

31%

41%

42%

2011

2012

2013

2009

2010



7/39

Reviewing contracts/operating costs and reducing

expenditure are now equally important actions to those

approached by tenants seeking service charge reductions

14%

14%

17%

24%

20%

16%

20%

20%

20%

2013

2012

2011

Review /

renegotiate

contracts

Review operating

costs

Manage / reduce

expenditure



8/39

Consistent with last year, there is an average of zero in

the service charge change. Whereas, in previous years

there have been small declines

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2011

2012

2013

4

3

2

8

6

10

34

33

32

4

24

26

39

21

22

12

12

6 2

Increase 10%+ Increase 5-10% Increase


9/39

Majority of managers consider monthly rents on a

case by case basis

17

27

49

21

9

62

19

12

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Already offer monthly rents Decision by head office Consider on a case by case

basis

%2013

2012

2011

The biggest shift this year is in the

increase of managers considering

monthly rents as a head office

decision



10/39

As many as 6% of managers report >25% voids and

8% report these in the range 16-20%

8

40

27

9 8

366

47

38

3 3 34

46

31

15

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

None 25%

%

2013

2012

2011

Averages:

2013 = 8%

2012 = 6%

2011 = 6%



11/39

Proportion of voids is slightly more positive when

compared directly to last year

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2011

2012

2013

19

6

7

31

9

16

15

32

34

27

38

34

8

15

9

Much better (5) A little better (4) The same (3) A little worse (2) Much worse (1)

3.3

2.5

Weighted ave

2.8

However, only 23% of managersfelt things were better



12/39

Amongst those who believe that the number of voids

have got worse, only 17% are seeing improvements

already taking place.

Already

happening

End of current

year

Mid next

year

End of next

year

Mid following

year

Beyond

then

17

%

22

%

26

%

15

%

7

%

1

3%



13/39

3%

16%

47%

30%

5%Very poor (1)

Quite poor (2)

Neutral (3)

Quite good (4)

Very good (5)

Consumer confidence is low and amongst those who

believe consumer confidence is poor the majority do not

envisage a turnaround until beyond 2015

Weighted

ave. =

2.8

However,highest

since 201015

15

23

39

8

17

9

17

39

17

28

14

16

26

12

5

Beyond then

Mid following year

End of next year

Mid next year

End of the current year

Already happening

%

2013

2012

2011

Consumerconfi

dence

Consumer confidenceturnaround



14/39

27

21 18

62 6558

1212

13

311

0

20

40

60

80

100

2011 2012 2013

Yes a lot Yes a little No Don't know

Around two thirds believe tax rises and public spending

cuts will have at least a small impact on retail spending

and almost 1 in 5 believe it will have a significant impact



15/39

Footfall is the most common way centres measure their

success; voids/ occupancy is less so since previous years

8578

7064

57

91

7985

6865

9289

81

73

46

0

20

40

60

80

100

Footfall Tenant feedback Voids/occupancy Retail sales/spend Customer feedback

%2013

2012

2011

Top 5 measures of success



16/39

Majority believe their centres sales are mixed between

sectors, however this is less marked than recent years

4

8

15

73

3

12

27

59

11

14

22

52

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Generally up

Generally down

Stable

Mixed between sectors

%

2013

2012

2011Polarised view



17/39

Footfall is the most popular measure tracked by centre

managers; sales statistics, spend and shopper satisfaction

are generally increasing in importance over recent years

9284

64

4945

97

88

65

47 41

92

81

73

3841

0

20

40

60

80

100

Footfall Sales statistics Tenant satisfaction Spend Shoppersatisfaction

% 20132012

2011

Top 5 tracked measures


Allowing for multi

responses


18/39

In-mall events are the most popular marketing activity

this year, however, advertising and PR have varied across

the years and mall merchandising has dropped this year

In-mall evens& promotions Advertising

Public relations Mall

merchandising/

RMUs

93% 88%

78% 69%

Top 4 marketing activities

1 2

3 4

*Remained above 90% since

2009

Allowing for multi

responses



19/39

A website remains the most common form of online

activity; Facebook looks to have stalled, Twitter is

strongly increasing whilst email/SEO is declining

2013

2012

2011

95%

100%

100%

78%

82%

65%

71%

61%

54%

51%

61%

73%

43%

52%

62%


Allowing for

multi

responses


20/39

To discuss the findings of this report, or to find out how we can help you understand

your shoppers better, please contact either Paul Latimer or Peter Appleby.

Paul Latimer

07957 653590

[email protected]

Peter Appleby07973 214630

[email protected]

Latimer Appleby Limited

Old Steyne House

21-22 Old Steine

BrightonBN1 1EL

tel: 01273 648335

www.latimerappleby.com


21/39

Appendix


22/39

About the sample

43

39

14

1

3

31

56

8

4

2

35

39

4

19

4

41

27

15

18

46

35

10

7

2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

< 50

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200+

%

Centre

Size

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

22

Ave no. shops:

2013 = 662012 = 81

2011 = 86

2010 = 72

2009 = 67



23/39

Recent challenges

21

17

8 8

12

6

9

6

43

5

2

18

8

13

10

15

6

45

9

45

1

17

13 13

9

11

9

5 5

3

5

7

1

1918

12 12

97

65 5

3 32

0

5

10

15

20

25

% 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

23 Latimer Appleby 2013 23 Base: 136, Shopping Centre Managers Fieldwork: June 2013


24/39

Future challenges

1415

20

8

6

15

6

13

3

16

1415

17

10 10

4

8

5

20

17

13 13

16

5

2

4

8

18

1516

1314

5

8

65

20

16

13 1312

76 6 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

% 2009

20102011

2012

2013



25/39

Pressure to reduce

service charges

47

41

31

41

42

0 10 20 30 40 50

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

%



26/39

Achieving service

charge reductions

26

10

20

14

2

6 6

4

10

2

20

22

20

11

1

14

43 3 3

14 14

17

11 11

14

9

6

3

24

20

16

6

2

10 10

2

20 20 20

109

76

4

2 2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

26

Base = those who have experienced

pressure to reduce service charges

Latimer Appleby 2013 26 Shopping Centre Managers Fieldwork: June 2013


27/39

Service charge comparisons

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

4

3

2

14

14

8

6

10

21

19

34

33

32

21

21

4

24

26

19

19

39

21

22

24

23

12

12

6

11

4

2

Increase 10%+ Increase 5-10% Increase


28/39

Monthly rents

1

22

10

21

12

34

14

8

15

64

15

19

12

54

9

21

9

62

1

6

17

27

49

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Other

Considering making standard

No intention

Already offer monthly rents

Decision by head office

Consider on a case by case basis

%

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009



29/39


30/39

Voids comparison

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

4

12

19

6

7

14

28

31

9

16

23

37

15

32

34

44

22

27

38

34

14

2

8

15

9

Much better (5) A little better (4) The same (3) A little worse (2) Much worse (1)

30

2.5

3.3

3.3

2.5

Weighted

ave.

2.8



31/39

Occupier demand

3

10

12

17

22

36

17

8

25

50

11

22

22

44

6

12

24

29

12

18

13

7

15

26

22

17

0 10 20 30 40 50

Beyond then

Mid following year

End of next year

Mid next year


Already happening

%

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

31

Base = those who believe the void situation is

much worse or a little worse



32/39

Consumer confidence

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2

3

22

39

15

6

16

29

33

31

26

47

39

19

50

62

30

8

10

4

6

5

Very good (5) Quite good (4) Neutral (3) Quite poor (2) Very poor (1)

32

2.7

3.6

2.6

2.3

Weighted

ave.

2.8



33/39

Consumer confidence

turnaround

16

19

19

9

32

5

7

20

40

33

15

15

23

39

8

17

9

17

39

17

28

14

16

26

12

5

0 10 20 30 40 50

Beyond then

Mid following year

End of next year

Mid next year


Already happening

%

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

33

Base = those who rated consumer confidence as quite

poor /very poor


T i d bli


34/39

Tax rises and public

spending cuts

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2010

2011

2012

2013

21

27

21

18

65

62

65

58

6

12

12

13

8

3

11

Yes a lot Yes a little No Don't know


S l t d


35/39

Sales trends

16

14

21

48

27

10

23

40

4

8

15

73

3

12

27

59

11

14

22

52

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Generally up

Generally down

Stable

Mixed between sectors

%

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009


Meas ring s ccess


36/39

96

75

56 58

48

67

56

4237

48

14

9289

81

73

46

69

58

50

39

31

4

91

7985

6865 65

53

4447

35

18

85

78

70

64

5754

44 42

3326

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%

2010 2011 2012 2013

36

Allowing for multi responses

Measuring success


Tracking measures


37/39

100

73

62

40

31

46 44

17

92

81

73

3841

4340

23

97

88

65

47

41

53

47

29

92

84

64

49

4539

33 32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Footfall Sales

statistics

Tenant

satisfaction

Spend Shopper

satisfaction

Dwell time Visit

frequency

Conversion

%

2010

2011

2012

2013

37


Tracking measures


Marketing activities


38/39

92

80

69

79

52

35

10

100

92 92

81

62

35

15

91

97

91

94

5053

15

9388

78

69

53

46

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

In-mall events

& prom

Advertising Public

Relations

Mall merch./

RMUs

Market

research

Cust satis.

surveys

Other

%

2010 2011 2012 2013

38


Marketing activities


On-line activity


39/39

98

38

22

40 42

16 14

100

65

54

73

62

128

100

82

61 61

52

12

95

78

71

51

43

15

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Website Facebook page Twitter Email

newsletter

SEO VIP / Priviledge

club

PPC advertising

%

2010 2011 2012 2013

39


On-line activity


5th annual state of the retail nation - latimer appleby market research consultants

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