5g världens nya mobilnät - stadsnätsföreningen · 2019. 10. 4. · fwa currently presents the...
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5G – Världens nya mobilnät
Bredbandsbåten 2019
Bengt Nordström
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
Northstream
Striving for impact
Company
fact sheetFounded in 1998
Part of Accenture since August 2019
~30 Consultants, 13 nationalities
Offices in Stockholm and Helsinki
Projects in 50+ countries
Strategic Advisory Services as main activity
Thought Leadership through White Papers
and Media dialogue
2
Solid
reputation and
strongly
networked in
the industry
Constantly
evolving
Thought
leadership
Holistic
industry view
through work
across the
ecosystem and
markets
Solid track record in
the telecoms industry
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
Overview of services
3
• Corporate strategy
development and
planning
• Technology & product
strategy evaluation
• Operational review,
optimization and
investment support
Strategy
• Sourcing / Outsourcing of
systems, networks,
platforms, services
• RFP and process
management
• Managed services
strategy, assessment and
sourcing
Sourcing
• Internal re-organization
• Transition of
responsibilities and/or
staff to 3rd party
• Shift in supplier base of
managed services
Transformation
• Technology and business
strategy
• Investment appraisal
• Market positioning
• Strategy implementation
• Program Management
Internet of Things
• Start-up Accelerator
• Go-to market strategies
• Product strategies
• Business models
Upstream
Since 1998 we have gained a sound reputation through a wide range of business and technology consulting
assignments in all corners of the industry.
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
AGENDA
5G in a nutshell
What is the business potential of 5G?
What is the status in the “race” to 5G?
4
How will European operator business change?
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved. 5
Source: Ovum Communications Provider Revenue & CAPEX Highlights: 4Q18
Regional mobile revenues
5G rollout will be a gradual process (evolution) driven by the potential of use cases, rather than massive
spending.
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billio
n U
SD
(N
ord
ics)
Billio
n U
SD
(exc
l. N
ord
ics)
North America Western Europe China Nordics
5G use cases and revenue opportunities
• Although operators can improve
connectivity for Internet of Things via 5G,
they face competition and price pressure
from other technologies
• Given the experience of 4G, it is unlikely
that enhanced mobile broadband can
increase ARPUs
• In the best case scenario, fixed wireless
access in a market such as U.S. can only
contribute less than 5% of current
operators’ revenue
IoT
eMBB
FWA
Will 5G create short/mid term revenue growth to break the
trend?
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
5G is the next ten-year cycle in mobile network evolution
6
5G networks are expected to meet increasing performance requirements for capacity, data rates, latency and
battery life in order to support future needs and use cases.
Performance requirements source: International Telecommunication Union - Report ITU-R M.2410-0” (2017)
Performance
requirement
s 2020+
10 000x
more traffic vs.
2010
10 – 100x
times more
devices
10 + years
battery life for
low power
devices
≦ 1 ms
Latency
100 Mbps
wherever
needed
20 Gbps
Peak data
rates
Evolution of mobile network technology
1991
2001
2011
2019+
2G
3G
4G
5G
Voice
64 kbps
Voice and
data
2 Mbps
Data
1 Gbps
Data+more
20 Gbps
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
AGENDA
5G in a nutshell
What is the business potential of 5G?
What is the status in the “race” to 5G?
7
How will European operator business change?
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved. 8
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report
Platform for
addressing
industrial and societal
transformations
Cost-effective
delivery of increased
data traffic addressed
initially
Industrial digitalization
High level of uncertainty
Ericsson forecast: $200 – 600 bn*
Capacity
cost/bit
performance
Bread & butter
but limited
growth
Ericsson forecast:
$950 – 1,100 bn*
Underserved
home & SME
markets
Small but
tangible new
revenue
Ericsson forecast: $50
– 100 bn*
Massive Internet of Things
(mIoT)Critical Internet of Things
(cIoT)
Enhanced mobile broadband
(eMBB)
Fixed wireless access
(FWA)
Smart meters/
utilities
Fleet management
Tracking
Remote
manufacturing
Traffic safety
Remote surgery
Video streamingAR/VR
Video surveillance
Household
Enterprise
Mobile/wireless/fixed
*estimated revenue for operators
What 5G is for: eMBB, FWA, mIoT & cIoT
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
AGENDA
5G in a nutshell
What is the business potential of 5G?
What is the status in the “race” to 5G?
9
How will European operator business change?
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved. 10
Ambitious
plans for
large-scale
rollout
Political agenda
providing strong
support
Domestic
competition is
driving
deployments in
fixed and mobileFragmentation
causing CAPEX
constraints
Where will 5G happen: US and Asia are leading the 5G race
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved. 11
* Source: Northstream study. Based on largest MNO in each country. Mid-band spectrum is assumed to primarily be used for NR from the start, which can deviate from current initial
deployments.
** EU5 = Average of Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain
European countries are expected to be slower in 5G rollout*
Projected development in the “race” to 5G
In terms of 5G rollout pace, Europe is at a disadvantage vs. other developed regions primarily due to its lower
APRU levels and more fragmented markets.
New T-Mobile ahead due to their extensive mid-
band spectrum holdings
Japan benefits from both large spectrum holdings
and a disproportionately dense existing network
grid
Also, the larger US operators are faster than those
in EU5**
This is because they are able to outspend their
European peers as they profit from substantially
higher ARPU levels
Smaller European countries may be even slower in
rolling outModel parameters
50 GB/
mon
50 / 30
Mbps
Mid-
band
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
Popula
tion c
overa
ge
USA (Largest MNO) USA (Sprint/New T-Mobile) Japan EU5 average
2020 2021 2022 20230%
20%
40%
60%
80%
95%
Po
pula
tio
n c
overa
ge
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
Popula
tion c
overa
ge
USA (Largest MNO) USA (Sprint/New T-Mobile) Japan EU5 average
Projected 5G NR roll-out pace on mid-band spectrum
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
USA: Global competitiveness ambition but lacking harmonised
spectrum
12
• Launch: April 2019
• Coverage: In 30
cities in 2019
• Devices: LG V50,
Motorola Z3+Z4,
Samsung S10
• Price: $50 for FWA,
$55 for mobile
• Ca. 50% of homes
are new to Verizon
FWA
• Launch: 2Q2019
• Coverage: In 19
cities, nationwide
by 2020
• Devices: Samsung
S10, Netgear
hotspot
• Price: $70 pm and
$499 for the
device
• Misleading
branding with 5Ge
• Launch: May 2019
• Coverage:
Nationwide in 2020
(T-Mobile)
• Devices: Samsung
S10 (expected)
• Plans: Ca. $70 pm
(unlimited plan),
similar to 4G
• $40B CAPEX over 3
years
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
China: proactive state involvement in R&D, trials and commercial
launch planning, and Effective spectrum management
13
• Launch: May 2019
• Coverage: In 7
major cities, and
hotspots in +33
main cities
• Devices: 15 types
of phones of 12
brands
• Price: Targeting
$0.07/GB, similar
to 4G
• Launch: Oct. 2019
Trials in 17 cities,
commercial license
applied
• Devices:
Commercial device
by June 2019
• Price: No particular
indication
• No more than $2.9
billion Capex
• Launch: Oct. 2019
• Coverage: Trials in
17 cities
• Devices: No plans
• Price: Targeting
$0.14/GB, similar to
4G
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
South Korea: Ambitious to take a share of the global 5G supply
market, while expediting rollout to benefit economy
14
• Launch: April 2019
• Coverage:
Nationwide (34k
base stations)
• Devices: Samsung
S10
• Price: From $50,
similar to 4G
• 1 million users by
2020
• Launch: April 2019
• Coverage:
Nationwide (30k
base stations)
• Devices: Samsung
S10
• Price: From $50,
cheaper than 4G
on unlimited plan
• 10% of subs by
2020
• Launch: April 2019
• Coverage: 90% in
2019 (50k base
stations)
• Devices: Samsung
S10, V50 ThinQ 5G
• Price: From $50,
14% cheaper
• Ranking third in 5G
with 540.000 users
in August 2019
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
Europe: Some nations are showing good 5G progress but the region
is facing challenges linked to regulations and lack of harmonization
15
• Launch: May 2019
• Coverage: Limited
(6 urban areas)
• Devices: Samsung
S10
• Price: From £55,
with limited data
consumption
• Launch: March
2019
• Coverage:
Nationwide
(currently 80% of
population)
• Devices: Samsung
Galaxy Note and
S10, Huawei Mate,
Xiaomi Mi Mix 3
• Price: CHF 59 with
unlimited data plan
• Launch: June 2019
• Coverage: Limited
(5 cities as of June,
gradually rising to
100 cities in 2021)
• Devices: Xiaomi Mi
Mix 3, LG V50
ThinQ 5G and
Samsung S10
• Price: multiple
bundle options
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
Nordics: The region’s operator are developing on pace with the rest
of Europe
16
• Launch: 2020
• Initial coverage:
Oslo and
Trondheim
• Devices: Unknown
• Price: Unknown
• Launch: 2020
• Initial area for
trial coverage:
Stockholm in
2019
• Expected initial
device suppliers:
Huawei, OnePlus,
LG and Xiaomi
• Price: Unknown
• Launch: June 2019
• Coverage: Limited
(initially 4 cities)
• Devices: ZTE Axon
10 Pro 5G and
OnePlus 7 Pro 5G
• Price: varying
depending on
speed and latency
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved. 17
Will 5G be a catalyst for an increased number of private
networks?
Likely
outcome
✓ Speed
✓ Control
✓ Security
✘ Cost
• Enterprises are subscale in
sourcing and operation
compared to operators• Hence no cost advantage
over operator
Why private
network?
• A desire for faster development
• A need for a certain level of control
• Corporate requirements on security
• Constant need for cost reductions
Background
• The 3.5 GHz band has extensive capacity
• There is a global trend towards
increased
acceptance of private networks where
local companies can play a bigger role
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
AGENDA
5G in a nutshell
What is the business potential of 5G?
What is the status in the “race” to 5G?
18
How will European operator business change?
2019 Northstream. Proprietary and Confidential. All Rights Reserved.
Conclusion
19
5G is the next generation of mobile communications – Initial commercial deployments have started in 2019,
while mass global adoption is expected to happen from 2022
5G networks will serve three main types of use cases: eMBB, FWA and IoT (both massive and critical).
FWA currently presents the most tangible (albeit small) opportunity to increase revenues.
Asian and US operators are expected to lead the “race” to 5G while Europe will have to catch up.
While there are some changes happening on the vendor side, the dominant players will retain their
positions.
There is a high probability for the development of privately owned 5G networks
but it will not be driven by cost savings initiatives
European telcos will remain under revenue pressure while exploring new 5G business cases. A logical way
forward is to consolidate the fragmented market either in the traditional M&A way or through new
infrastructure setup