62 绩效

Is AI the fuel oil and Is AI the fuel oil and gas needs?gas needs?The oil and gas sector faces challenges on The oil and gas sector faces challenges on multiple fronts. Embracing AI may provide a multiple fronts. Embracing AI may provide a way to address them.way to address them.

Around the world, the emergence of Around the world, the emergence of increasingly sophisticated data, analytics, increasingly sophisticated data, analytics, automation technologies, and artificial automation technologies, and artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we work and live. Global spending on AI and other work and live. Global spending on AI and other cognitive technologies is set to hit US$19.1 cognitive technologies is set to hit US$19.1 billion in 2018, up 54.2% from 2017’s figures. billion in 2018, up 54.2% from 2017’s figures. By 2021, it’s expected spending will increase to By 2021, it’s expected spending will increase to US$52.2 billion per year.US$52.2 billion per year.

Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector is in urgent Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector is in urgent need of transformation. It faces disruption need of transformation. It faces disruption from a range of economic, social, political and from a range of economic, social, political and environmental challenges — and needs to find environmental challenges — and needs to find ways to cope with softening demand, price ways to cope with softening demand, price volatility, continued pressure on costs, and an volatility, continued pressure on costs, and an emerging crisis of talent.emerging crisis of talent.

But could the new generation of thinking But could the new generation of thinking machines provide the oil and gas sector machines provide the oil and gas sector with the capabilities it needs to thrive in this with the capabilities it needs to thrive in this Transformative Age?Transformative Age?

中西合璧

Operators find themselves at the heart Operators find themselves at the heart of the digital economy as 5G drives of the digital economy as 5G drives transformation and productivity growth transformation and productivity growth across industries.across industries.

In this new era of intelligent connectivity, 5G In this new era of intelligent connectivity, 5G will play a critical role, offering the chance will play a critical role, offering the chance to recast customer value propositions, to recast customer value propositions, accelerate industrial transformation and accelerate industrial transformation and reinvigorate the digital society. In Europe, reinvigorate the digital society. In Europe, mobile technologies and services accounted mobile technologies and services accounted for 3.3% of regional GDP in 2017, and this for 3.3% of regional GDP in 2017, and this contribution is expected to surpass 4% by contribution is expected to surpass 4% by 2022.2022.11

However, a positive outlook for the However, a positive outlook for the European mobile industry is by no means European mobile industry is by no means certain. Fragmented market structures, certain. Fragmented market structures, uncertain demand scenarios and ongoing uncertain demand scenarios and ongoing regulatory complexities present substantial regulatory complexities present substantial obstacles. Meanwhile, internet of things obstacles. Meanwhile, internet of things (IoT) services currently account for a low (IoT) services currently account for a low single-digit proportion of telco revenues. single-digit proportion of telco revenues.

More robust digital transformation More robust digital transformation roadmaps, improved dialogue with roadmaps, improved dialogue with stakeholders and more meaningful customer stakeholders and more meaningful customer interactions will all have a vital role to play.interactions will all have a vital role to play.

5G is redefining 5G is redefining telecoms fast.telecoms fast. Are you up to speed?Are you up to speed?

62 绩效

1. “5G to power economic growth in Europe, finds GSMA study”, GSMA, 18 September 2018, ©2019 GSM Association

中西合璧

63绩效

英文作者英文作者

Tom Loozen EY Global Telecommunications Sector Leader

Adrian Baschnonga EY Global Telecommunications Lead Analyst

点评作者点评作者

张伟雄张伟雄 Paul Cheung 安永大中华区科技、媒体与通信行业咨询服务合伙人

常燕杰常燕杰 Yan Jie Chang 安永大中华区咨询服务高级经理

郑红岩郑红岩 Teresa Zheng 安永大中华区科技行业分析师

64 绩效

对对5G5G的本土观察 的本土观察

中国政府和企业致力于扭转在3G时代的被动局

面，对5G的发展极为重视，并制定了一系列支持

政策和发展目标。《中国制造2025》第一次从国

家层面提出突破5G技术，十三五规划进一步提出

了加大5G的研发、实验和预商用试点。同时，有

关部门也制定了在2020年实现5G商用的具体目

标。此外，中国还积极参与制定国际5G标准，成

为主要的标准制定者之一。随着2019年6月工业

与信息化部（后面统称“工信部”）正式发放5G商用牌照，中国正式进入5G商用元年。根据安永

预计，到2025年，中国的5G用户数将达到5.76亿，占全球总数逾40% 1。

本土观察本土观察5G: The European opportunity5G: The European opportunity

Mobile at the heart of a digital continentMobile at the heart of a digital continent

The European telco industry stands on the edge of an exciting change. The region boasts the world’s highest rate of mobile penetration and this is set to increase further, from 85% of the population in 2017 to 88% by 2025.2

European governments and policy makers recognize 5G’s ability to create positive externalities, which can help drive productivity growth across traditional industries. This is recognized in regional 5G targets. For instance, the European Union (EU), in its 5G action plan calls for major roads and railways to have uninterrupted 5G coverage by 2025.3

At a national level, 5G trials are well underway in a number of countries, many with a focus on leveraging its potential to create new economic centers. Policymakers also recognize the need for greater levels of regulatory certainty.

The EU’s 5G Action Plan, for example, emphasizes the importance of coordinated spectrum release, testing and trials alongside a pro-investment regulatory environment at large.

2. “5G to power economic growth in Europe, finds GSMA study”, GSMA, 18 September 2018, ©2019 GSM Association

3. “5G For Europe: An Action Plan”, European Commission, 14 September 2016

1. 《中国扬帆启航 引领全球5G》，2018年6月，安永中国

65绩效

5G对于TMT行业及整体经济的最大贡献在于使万

物智联成为可能。5G技术与边缘计算、云计算、

物联网、人工智能等技术的结合，将会颠覆性地改

变人们的生活和生产方式。中国的通信运营商凭

借在5G、物联网、云计算等领域的市场地位，正

在积极布局多种应用场景（比如，超高清视频、

在线医疗、VR、无人驾驶、工业互联网等），努

力抓住这个有助于扭转运营商业务管道化趋势的

重大契机。

本土观察本土观察5G for operators: the reassertion of control5G for operators: the reassertion of control

5G’s credentials as a transformational technology are strong. Beyond improved data rates, ultra-low latency will bring new levels of network responsiveness. 5G can support a hundredfold increase in connected devices per unit area, redefining what’s possible in IoT, while network slicing enables highly differentiated services at specific locations.

Other emerging technologies are set to complement 5G. Mobile edge computing can unlock more efficient data transfer and perimeter security, helping operators to relieve network congestion, and realize low latency. Network function virtualization (NFV) will support more dynamic management of network resources, aiding operating expense (OPEX) and capital expense (CAPEX) reductions in the process.

In this light, 5G paves the way for new paradigms of network operation and service creation. By leveraging analytics, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning in conjunction with 5G, operators can offer a range of location- and context-aware services across millions of end-points, backed by a significant change in network control, service quality and personalization.

As a result, operators can play a more assertive role in the industry value chain. No longer relegated to the role of dumb pipe provider, operators’ much more intimate relationship with their networks will help them pave the way for new forms of customer experience and service monetization.

66 绩效

在以5G及其他新技术为核心的

新的应用成为运营商的重要收

入贡献来源之前，中国的电信

运营商正面临着收入增长停滞

的困境。根据工信部 的《2019年上半年通信业经济运行情

况》2，2019年上半年，中国

电信业务收入累计完成6,721亿元，同比下降0.03%。其中，

三家基础电信运营商实现移动

通信业务收入4,596亿元，同

比下降4%。但同时，运营商积

极发展互联网数据中心、大数

据、云计算、人工智能等新业

务，拉动固定增值及其他业务

的收入较快增长。上半年，三

家基础电信企业完成固定增值

业务收入为733亿元，同比增长

28.1%。虽然这部分业务占比仍

然较小，却呈现了高速增长的

态势。

本土观察本土观察A chance to reignite the sector growth storyA chance to reignite the sector growth story

Despite mobile’s role as a productivity driver, operators’ financial performance in Europe has underwhelmed in recent years. Regulatory burdens remain pronounced, competitive intensity is increasing and new growth stories in IoT have, thus far, been slow to emerge.

Looking ahead, market conditions are set to remain challenging, intensified by macroeconomic pressures as Eurozone GDP growth slows, from 2.6% in 2017 to 1.9% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019.4

4. “OECD sees global growth slowing, as Europe weakens and risks persist”, OECD, 6 March 2019, ©2019 OECD

5. CapitalIQ; EY research “The Mobile Economy 2019” GSMA, February 2019, ©2019 GSM Association

6. Telecoms capex: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2025, Analysys Mason, March 2019. Machina Research; EY analysis

2.《2019年上半年通信业经济运行情况》， 2019年7月，工业与信息化部网站，http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146312/n1146904/n1648372/c7149071/content.html

Other regions are already ahead of Europe in terms of 5G commercialization, reflecting the earlier development of 5G strategies predicated on technology leadership. Industry forecasts suggest that 5G adoption rates in Europe will lag other developed regions over the next five years.

Source: CapitalIQ, EY research

*Gulf Cooperation Council

Figure 1: European telecoms share performance, 2008-20185

% of change

Figure 2: 5G as a proportion of total mobile subscriptions in 20256

–40–20

020406080

100120140

Jan

2009

Jul 2

009

Jan

2010

Jul 2

010

Jan

2011

Jul 2

011

Jan

2012

Jul 2

012

Jan

2013

Jul 2

013

Jan

2014

Jul 2

014

Jan

2015

Jul 2

015

Jan

2016

Jul 2

016

Jan

2017

Jul 2

017

Jan

2018

Jul 2

018

Dow Jones EURO STOXX Telecommunications Index Dow Jones STOXX Europe 600 Index

50%

United States

29%

Europe

8%

Latin America

16%

GCC*

56%

South Korea

48%

Japan

29%

China

67绩效

Five key objectives for operatorsFive key objectives for operators

1. Place 5G at the heart of your transformation 1. Place 5G at the heart of your transformation agendaagenda

While much is made of the global race to 5G launches, the rollout of new network capability is not an end in itself. 5G upgrades are not a ‘big bang’ moment; they will deliver new capabilities on an incremental basis. While 5G’s scope to transform service propositions is clear enough, its ability to transform the operator business from within is just as important.

Prepare for a new network paradigm, but don’t forget Prepare for a new network paradigm, but don’t forget 4G4G

New 5G capabilities such as network slicing, in tandem with small cell-led network densification, will alter traditional notions of coverage expansion, service innovation and customer experience. Nevertheless, 5G radio access network (RAN) spend is only likely to overtake 4G RAN spend in the early 2020s, with phased 5G upgrades allowing telcos to absorb capital expense requirements.

Enhanced 4G infrastructure for wide area coverage will still be critical in the medium term, while ongoing deployments of low-power wide-area networks will fuel IoT service propositions before 5G-based IoT capabilities take center stage. The decommissioning of legacy standards will also figure prominently in network strategies over the next decade.

Align 5G migration with related digitization activitiesAlign 5G migration with related digitization activities

5G represents a route to more efficient and agile service provision beyond gains in low latency and capacity per se. Complementary investment in NFV and software-defined networks (SDN) can bring long-term CAPEX and OPEX savings, while aiding greater network automation, and operators should consider how best to harness this as part of their migration to 5G.

A holistic perspective is paramount, since the shift towards virtualized platforms is expected to take place gradually and at varying rates across the mobile network estate.

The role AI and analytics can play at the network level will also gain further prominence as 5G takes hold. This requires a holistic approach to emerging technology deployments that prize their mutually reinforcing benefits.

Embrace a new era of organizational design and Embrace a new era of organizational design and effectivenesseffectiveness

5G’s impact on the operating model also merits attention. The increasingly blurred relationship between hardware and software is prompting more demand for software skills alongside a closer alignment of network and IT departments.

The move to 5G has profound implications for workforce design. Deeper collaboration between network operations, IT and data center staff will enable better visibility of applications, services and networks across the business, while closer alignment of network and product development teams will help telcos fashion new 5G use cases.

Reskilling is also essential as operators migrate to 5G. Sales teams must interact with enterprise customers in new ways, focusing on the business outcomes enabled by 5G-based IoT. This is vital if telcos are to move beyond their legacy role as connectivity-only providers.

Ultimately, 5G network investment is about much more than differentiation through network quality. It will play a pivotal role in long-term transformation of the telecoms business. Service providers that recognize 5G’s potential to revitalize their organization will be best-placed to maximize their ROI over the next decade.

68 绩效

中国的电信运营商近些年也在加强数字化转型，并

希望结合5G技术的商用，加速这一转型过程。在

网络架构重构方面，各主流运营商积极布局SDN（即软件定义网络，Software Defined Network）/

NFV （即网络功能虚拟化，Network Function Virtualization）技术，但总体上还是落后于国外

同行。SDN/NFV/AI标准与产业推进委员会主席韦

乐平指出，SDN在中国的应用已经步入商用化轨

道，但还没有大规模应用，而NFV进展比SDN更为

缓慢。韦乐平先生特别强调了要利用5G机遇，加

快SDN/NFV应用的重要性3。另外，中国运营商在

伴随5G发展的数字化转型的过程中，还面临着提

高自身网络产品自主创新能力、发展CT（通信技

术，Communication Technology）及IT（信息技

术，Information Technology）复合型人才、升级

流程架构以适应新模式的挑战。

本土观察本土观察

Figure 3: Virtualization as a proportion of global mobile CAPEX by equipment category

Source: Telecoms capex - worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2025, Analysys Mason, March 2019.

Virtualization as % of mobile CAPEX7

16

2618

3843

27

RAN CoreT ransport

2021 2025

2. Engage with policy makers and regulators early and 2. Engage with policy makers and regulators early and oftenoften

Policy makers and regulators will have a crucial say in building a healthy investment environment for 5G. This is no easy task: the telecoms sector has historically been heavily regulated, while mobile technology is now coming into sharper focus as part of national industrial strategies.

A new landscape of mobile industry oversight is comingA new landscape of mobile industry oversight is coming

5G is spurring a closer relationship between the mobile industry and governments who are keen to leverage the productivity benefits of new digital infrastructure. State funding for 5G test beds and support for 5G-centric public-private partnerships reflect this growing intimacy between the public sector and the mobile industry.

Yet, the supply-side landscape is not without its complexities. Spectrum release is an increasingly onerous exercise. The phased release of multiple bands to support various use cases will take many years. Disputes over spectrum auction design my stretch spectrum release timeframes still further.

Accepted notions of spectrum caps may give way to new concepts of spectrum pooling as network sharing regulations evolve in new ways.

Fixed and mobile infrastructures will become more Fixed and mobile infrastructures will become more interdependentinterdependent

Policy makers recognize the convergence opportunities between fiber and 5G in terms of greater choice of connectivity options for consumers and fiber’s critical role in mobile backhaul. Looking ahead, this could pave the way for unified market reviews designed to stimulate complementary investments in both fixed and mobile infrastructure.

7. “Energizing the enterprise journey to 5G and IoT”, EY UK LLP, February 2019 ©2019 EYGM Limited

3.《为什么我国SDN/NFV应用这么慢? 国内运营商思维保守！》，

C114通信网，2019年4月18日，https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1631126496571490099&wfr=spider&for=pc

69绩效

工信部是中国通信业务的主要监管部门，长期对于

移动通信、固定通信及互联网业务进行统筹监管。

另外，地方政府、国家广播电视总局以及中国信息

通信研究院也在5G发展中有重要作用。多个地方

政府都发布了5G建设发展规划，提供5G基站建设

用地及专项资金等支持。国家广播电视总局的下属

公司也获得了一张5G牌照，同时，针对5G基站与

广播电视卫星地球站、监测站的干扰问题，也需要

国家广播电视总局监管中心与工信部有关部门共同

协调。中国信息通信研究院是工信部直属科研事业

单位，长期为工信部提供决策支持，为通信产品提

供测试认证，为企业提供各种咨询服务。

本土观察本土观察

Figure 4: Public sector engagement domains for operators

Yet, achieving more holistic regulatory frameworks is by no means straightforward. Both telcos and regulators will be keen that regulatory stability and clarity do not suffer as digital infrastructure policies become more holistic. More granular challenges, such as ensuring that dark fibre regulation supports 5G backhaul, also deserve focus.

Engage with a wider range of stakeholdersEngage with a wider range of stakeholders

The range of public sector actors with an interest, and role, in 5G deployments will widen. Local governments will have a greater say in network planning and site access, while regulators across different industries are already engaging with each other in order to maximize the industrial transformation heralded by 5G.

Meanwhile, 5G’s impact on wireless radiation is attracting growing attention. This, in turn, poses new challenges to national and regional regulators to mitigate health and environmental concerns. Universities are playing an increasingly important role in trials of new 5G use cases across a range of industries.

With all this potential change, operators must take their destiny into their own hands. Engaging early and often with a wider range of public sector stakeholders can only aid the development of more workable policies and regulatory stipulations. As such, proactive communications and ongoing dialogue are essential.

European Union

Central government

Telco regulator Localgovernment

Other vertical regulators

Universities

Engagement domains: 5G vision Spectrumrelease

5G planning and deployment

Use caseinnovation

70 绩效

3. Adopt new positions in a fluid and fast-changing 3. Adopt new positions in a fluid and fast-changing value chainvalue chain

New business models and value chains are key to the 5G opportunity. As operators consider new industrial use cases for mobile, there is much more scope to go beyond the role of a mere connectivity provider.

Yet, the potential for disruption is also real. For instance, various industry actors such as technology specialists and industry vertical leaders, may look to act as 5G mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), taking advantage of new capabilities in network slicing. The advent of private 5G networks could even see operators fully disintermediated from the connectivity layer.

Take advantage of new retail and wholesale Take advantage of new retail and wholesale opportunitiesopportunities

Various go-to-market strategies are available to telcos. Incumbents will sensitize their existing retail and wholesale businesses to 5G, with fiber alternative network providers or tower operators looking to broaden their addressable markets. Mobile-centric operators and cable companies will focus on enhancing their consumer retail propositions. New 5G offerings such as fixed wireless access, can be co-opted in various ways, as an extension of broadband capabilities in remote regions or as a tool to disrupt the fixed broadband market in urban areas. Critically, 5G can recast IoT offerings in multiple ways.

Adapt to changing market structuresAdapt to changing market structures

Efforts to reduce network duplication will evolve further. 5G could signal a more localized approach to “neutral host” networks in order to support smart city services. Meanwhile, the rise of nationwide 5G wholesale networks cannot be discounted. 5G also provides scope for more nuanced infrastructure sharing arrangements depending on the network layer or geographic area.

With all this potential for change, telcos should take care to revisit legacy mobile network sharing arrangements to ensure that they are fit for purpose.

Pre-empt new disruptive scenariosPre-empt new disruptive scenarios

5G capabilities also drive new disruption risks. Network slicing, for example, allows service providers to provide localized network capability supported by differentiated service level agreements. New business models to support localized networks could prove fundamentally disruptive, especially if private 5G networks provide an alternative to operator-controlled network slicing.

Technology vendors and industry vertical leaders may potentially seek more control of 5G connectivity, undermining operators’ growth ambitions in the process.

Mitigating the disruptive potential of 5G market structures will be essential. Operators should consider how best they can protect and extend their value chain positions – vertical industry needs, the scope for horizontal partnerships and regulatory frameworks will all inform the decisions they make.

The prospect of rising capital expenditure will demand extra consideration of asset-light strategies, where infrastructure sharing and co-investment take on a new prominence as routes to greater CAPEX efficiency.

71绩效

中国的电信运营商面临着收入增长停滞以及5G建设庞大资本支出的双重压力。因此，提升资本支出

效率以及努力在未来的5G价值链上占据有利地位

以提高5G收益，是中国运营商的重要目标。2019年9月，两家电信运营商宣布共建共享5G网络，这

是提升资本利用效率的重要举措，这一合作预计在

未来五年为两家公司节省2,000亿5G建设支出4。

在发展5G行业应用方面，中国运营商注重生态圈

建设，与通信设备商及垂直领域传统厂商合作，推

动多个垂直领域的试点应用落地，并通过组建5G应用联盟、资金支持5G应用项目孵化、推动5G应用标准制定等方式，加速5G应用发展。

本土观察本土观察

4.《联通电信共建共享5G网络 预计可各节省2000亿元开支》，2019年9月11日，https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2019-09-11/doc-iicez-zrq4984450.shtml

Figure 5: Indicative service provider strategies

Asset-heavy 5G MNO* 5G MVNO** Private 5G provider

Target market。:• Consumers• Enterprises• Operators

Target market。:• Consumers

Target market。:• Consumers• Enterprises

Target market。:• Enterprises

Increasing disruptive potential for telcos

*Mobile Network Operator**Mobile Virtual Network Operator

72 绩效

4. Take a selective and phased approach to 4. Take a selective and phased approach to monetizing new use casesmonetizing new use cases

5G’s ability to enable new use cases is not in question. Beyond the consumer connectivity market, 5G can catalyze various industry-specific use cases, from autonomous transport to smart buildings and remote surgery. Yet circumspection is important: while the field of innovation is wide, operators should take a phased and selective approach to service innovation and revenue diversification.

Sophisticated 5G use cases will take time to matureSophisticated 5G use cases will take time to mature

Game-changing 5G use cases will not appear overnight. Fully autonomous vehicles will not become commercially available for many years; remote surgery delivered using robots is also in a very nascent phase. A number of factors, from data protection regulation to the burden of legacy IT within specific industries, will mean that the road map to game-changing innovation is necessarily incremental.

Enhanced mobile broadband offers initial upsideEnhanced mobile broadband offers initial upside

Operators should bring realistic expectations to bear on their timelines for proposition development. Enhanced mobile broadband will act as the first large-scale 5G use case - with improved capacity in densely-populated areas, and fixed-wireless access in suburban and rural areas coming to the fore – ahead of innovations in augmented reality content. While 5G-based IoT unlocks limitless potential for industrial transformation, direct-to-consumer services will still be vital in the near-term.

Build a balanced view of 5G-enabled IoTBuild a balanced view of 5G-enabled IoT

As operators leverage 5G in the IoT, careful value chain positioning is essential. Devices, platforms and applications account for the majority of IoT revenues, well ahead of straightforward connectivity. Yet, the efforts of telcos to move beyond a basic bandwidth play should be cautious.

The demand for higher-value connectivity via network slicing, ecosystem complexity and willingness to partner will vary from industry to industry.

By focusing on use case clusters, operators may be able to unveil hidden adjacencies that cut across different industry domains. The ability to exploit these can strengthen the business case for both network investment and service customization, ultimately enabling them to scale their propositions more rapidly.

While considering 5G’s role as a catalyst for their IoT strategies, operators should not overlook its role in serving existing use cases. The successful introduction of 5G – with a focus on consumer connectivity and content – will hinge on effective refinements to existing 4G-based value propositions.

中国的电信运营商早已清醒认识到分阶段发展5G的必要性，因此在网络建设上，采用5G和4G的相

互协同构建网络基础设施。在应用上，由于eMBB的标准最先成熟，基于其大带宽高速率的特点，

中国的电信公司首先发力的应用主要在AR、VR、高清视频领域。特别是今年3月，工信部、广电总

局、中央广播电视总台联合发布《超高清视频产业

发展行动计划（2019-2020年）》，更加速了这

一5G应用的发展。同时，中国运营商也在尝试一

些其他应用，例如：车联网、广域无人机控制、远

程医疗、智能工厂等，这些应用将会随着5G标准

的不断完善，随着低时延、大连接的不断广泛普

及，逐步发展成熟。

本土观察本土观察

73绩效

5. Reboot your relationships with enterprises and 5. Reboot your relationships with enterprises and industry verticalsindustry verticals

Previous mobile upgrade cycles have been consumer-driven. The arrival of 4G coincided with the advent of touchscreen smartphones. However, 5G’s promise is predicated on its ability to transform entire industries. For this to happen, telcos should overhaul their enterprise relationships.

Customized solutions for industry verticals provided in conjunction with partners will come to the fore, and sales teams must focus on more consultative dialogue if they are to unlock new forms of enterprise demand.

Demystify 5G use cases and benefits for businessesDemystify 5G use cases and benefits for businesses

5G is much more than a new wave of mobile infrastructure that enables faster connectivity delivered to more endpoints – it is fundamentally transformational and disruptive. Cloud computing and storage are now entering the very fabric of business processes, and 5G can build on this, helping organizations unlock new horizons in digital transformation.

5G应用与3G/4G应用的一大区别就是前者有更广

阔的2B市场前景。因此，面对企业客户的5G应用

推广能力就显得尤为重要。近年来，中国的电信

运营商随着在云计算等市场的不断拓展，在助力

企业数字化转型方面已经有了一定的经验积累。

但5G的发展还处于早期阶段，很多应用还需要不

断探索，逐渐成熟。所以，运营商需要与企业客

户建立长久关系，在共同合作中不断推动5G应用

落地，通过示范项目向企业展示5G对于企业数字

化转型的长期裨益，并最终在应用成熟阶段占据

市场有利地位。

本土观察本土观察

1

3

3

9

2

10

9

32

37

8

11

12

20

37

35

42

48

66

Connected agriculture

Connected industry

Logistics and transport

Utilities

Health care

Smart cities

Connected retail

Smart buildings

Connected car

Applications

Figure 6: IoT market size by use case category8

Value in €b

8. Machina Research; EY analysis

Explaining the true business value of 5G, and the role that telcos and their partners can play will allow enterprises to invest with confidence and ensure that 5G becomes a core part of overarching business strategy in years to come.

Source: Machina Research

74 绩效

9. “Energizing the enterprise journey to 5G and IoT”, EY UK LLP, February 2019 ©2019 EYGM Limited

24

25

25

26

30

30

32

32

34

40

Insufficient engagement with vendors

Increasing vulnerability to cyber threats

Perceived technology immaturity

Limited relevance to overall technology and business strategies

Lack of clarity on relationship to other emerging technologies

Complexity of integration with existing technologies

Poor understanding of technology benefits and use cases

Low confidence in ROI

Increasing reliance on technology partners and vendors

Uncertainty on organizational deployment scenarios

Understand your customer – and your customer’s Understand your customer – and your customer’s customercustomer

Operator-led dialogues that focus on the legacy attributes of corporate mobility, such as total cost of ownership or workforce productivity, are likely to understate the potential of 5G – and limit its potential to deliver top- and bottom-line benefits. Providers that can develop more granular 5G propositions sensitized to vertical needs will be best placed to win the hearts and minds of their corporate customers in the future.

Come closer to the enterprise transformation agendaCome closer to the enterprise transformation agenda

Organizations investing in 5G are looking for better business outcomes for the next decade and beyond. This requires telcos to move beyond their historic role as mere connectivity suppliers. Engaging in consultative dialogue that positions 5G within the broader context of enterprise transformation is vital.

Telcos should articulate 5G’s relationship to other emerging technologies while alleviating concerns

regarding cybersecurity and integration with existing technologies.

With 5G, operators can take on new roles as both technology distributors and information-centric service providers. Yet, this can only happen if they engage more productively with their enterprise customers. The technology push of the past should give way to the business outcome of the future.

SummarySummary

5G will play a critical role in the digital economy for decades to come. This new era of intelligent connectivity offers the chance to recast customer value propositions, accelerate industrial transformation, and reinvigorate the digital society. However, a positive outlook for the European mobile industry is by no means certain.

Vision should translate into action, and new competencies must come to the fore, if telcos are to maximize their return on investment (ROI).

Question: What are the most critical concerns informing your organization’s view of 5G?**by % of respondents

Figure 7: UK enterprise attitudes to 5G9

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5G是数字经济时代的战略性基础设施。无论是政

府、运营商还是行业都在紧密关注并积极推进5G的发展及应用。用国务院发展研究中心企业研究所中

小企业研究室主任、研究员马源的话说：5G发展抓

住了就是机会，抓不住就是挑战。2018年12月，中

央经济工作会议明确提出要加快5G商用步伐，吹响

了5G商用的号角。2019年也正是中国运营商5G商用元年。但对运营商而言，5G虽万众瞩目，其推进

过程还存在种种挑战，需大胆布局，谨慎前行。

商用创新监管环境的挑战：5G不单单是一种新技

术，也不仅仅是网络提速和网络效率的提升，其

最大价值在于与垂直行业融合产生的创新。以车联

网、无人驾驶为例，这是5G商用的一个非常典型的

应用场景；实际上4G时代垂直行业已经在探讨该应

用的可能性，5G技术将助力该应用的落地。但是无

人驾驶涉及到车辆标准、认证制度、道路管理、交

通法规、准入许可、驾驶资格管理、安全管理等一

系列新问题，这都需要相关监管制度的改革；如果

政策监管环境不能同步更新，5G商业化场景落地将

备受掣肘，运营商也需要参与进来，与政策制定部

门多加沟通，推动相关政策的出台，进而推动产业

链不断成熟。

网络投资遵循务实策略：从三大运营商发布的年报

来看，业界普遍认为其5G投资额低于社会预期，运

营商也承认在5G网络投资方面持务实态度。中国联

通董事长王晓初就曾表示：“联通5G需要大投资，

但亦要‘捂紧口袋’。”中国移动董事长杨杰也表

示：“中国移动会控制总投资，即便考虑5G，总的

资本开支也不会大幅增长。”这是因为：一方面，

我国电信运营商在过去十年投入巨资打造了3G网络、4G网络，每年的投资额占其收入比例都在30%

本土观察本土观察

到35%之间，而国际上其他运营商这一比例一般

在10-15%左右。此前的大规模投资带来了设备容

量过剩、利用率下降等问题，3G和4G网络投资还

需要进一步产生收益；另一方面，我国在5G发展

方面比较同步全球水平甚至存在一定程度领先，

牌照发放也比较早；产业链成熟度、应用场景的

选择以及技术准备方面都需要一定的时间缓冲；

因此，运营商在5G网络投资方面会考虑与现有网

络的协同，在融资及投资节奏的把控方面会更为

审慎。

运营管理模式要积极转型：运营商具备云、网、

边、端的资源以及各种基础能力，将成为整个数

字化社会的核心中枢。运营商基于5G为各个行

业的数字化转型提供基础和行业的方案。与此

同时，运营商本身也面临着运营管理的转型升

级。5G时代，网络与IT、硬件与软件之间的关系

越发紧密，网络和IT部门越发参与到运营商面向

客户的交付当中去，这就需要更灵活的组织和更

顺畅的沟通关系；但是目前运营商普遍由市场、

服务面向前端客户，网络、IT作为后端不可见的

支撑；虽然通过IoT应用以及能力开放平台等业

务驱动网络专业能力前移，但多数是网络线条

主导甚至单打独斗，缺乏前后端的紧密合作。此

外，5G应用的落地需要运营商与客户建立更紧密

的联系，帮助客户制定基于5G的数字化转型方

案，这也要求运营商的销售职能转型，从而超越

运营商作为管道和连接提供者的传统定位。

76 绩效

系统支撑和人才更迭需就绪：5G对业务支撑系统

BSS和运营支撑系统OSS都提出了更高的要求。5G软件化网络特性给传统OSS系统带来诸如传输收

敛性、网络虚拟化需要实现网络部署的自动化等

挑战，5G网络所强调的大连接、海量数据以及切

片、边缘计算等特定场景应用，都需要新一代BSS能够提供能力适配，升级迭代。此外，传统上BSS和OSS一直是相对独立和隔离的系统，两个系统所

产生的数据都存在于各自域中，而5G的行业应用

则需要和推动两大系统之间的打通，从而实现真

正意义上的大数据整合。5G时代的大数据应用对

相关人才的需求亦很明确，但4G时代运营商大数

据业务价值未能体现出来，相应人才缺乏积累，

略有经验的人才也有向其他行业流动的现象。人

才的缺失在5G时代会进一步凸显，成为运营商发

展5G应用的短板之一。

客户教育依然任重道远：诚然5G受到全社会的共

同关注，但客户市场是否买账仍待运营商去引导

和培育。从To C端来看，消费者普遍已经了解5G速度会更快，但同时5G终端偏贵超出大众市场承

受范围，5G套餐入门档次均在百元之外接近200元水平，显然也并非目前运营商平均几十元ARPU消费水平的市场所能接纳；此外，更重要的是，

绝大多数消费者看不到更换5G的驱动力，目前

应用3G/4G网络已经能够完全覆盖。从To B端来

看，5G是企业数字化转型的基础，而中国传统企

业数字化转型步伐较慢，对5G的价值认识不够深

入，成熟的5G应用场景也仍待开发，市场缺乏示

范效应。市场对5G价值的认知和对5G应用的接受

还需要运营商认真去研判普通消费者需求，甚至

根据5G技术特点研发新的计费模式；也要积极分

析垂直行业潜在的应用场景，甚至面对政企市场

制定一客一策，然后开展紧密沟通，从而教育和

引导市场。

商业模式有待探索甚至重塑：任何新技术的更迭

最初都会面临商业模式不清晰的困惑，我国5G发展相对较早，同步世界水平，商业模式同样是

不可规避的问题。以MEC边缘云为例，这是5G时代运营商建设的重点，但如何从最终用户收取费

用，如何与业务合作伙伴共同获益，如何与设备

商形成良性发展模式等问题仍然有待明确。5G产业链更复杂，市场参与者更多，运营商的主导地

位也会面临设备商、虚拟运营商、垂直领域解决

方案提供方等产业链角色的挑战，如何建立双赢

甚至多赢的商业模式也是推动5G落地的重要

一环。

本土观察本土观察

77绩效

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