04/18/23 The NEED Project: 30 Years of Energy Education 1

The Basics of Climate Change

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• A natural “greenhouse effect” makes life possible on earth

• Without them, the average surface temperature would be about 5o F/- 15o C

CO2 and other “greenhouse gases” slow

down heat transfer

3

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• 39% increase• Now at 390 parts per million (ppm)

Levels of CO2 have risen substantially since the industrial revolution

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Divisionhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

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• 0.74o F/ 0.41o C rise since the industrial revolution

• Ocean temperatures have risen by 1o F/ 0.55o C

Global temperatures have risen Since the Industrial

Revolution.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, November, 2007

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A Few Examples:• Increase in extreme precipitation

events• Melting of ice caps and glaciers• Rising sea level

Some predicted effects of climate change are observable

today.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, November, 2007

Our Problem to Solve by 2050

Energy demand Energy demand to double to double worldwide by worldwide by 20502050

Need to cut CONeed to cut CO22 emissions in half emissions in half by 2050by 2050

x2Energy DemandEnergy Demand

:2-COCO2 2

EmissionsEmissions

Climate Reports

04/18/23 9

Some Examples of Well Recognized Climate Data And

Reports

Climate Reports

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Fourth Assessment Report:http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate:http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-3/final-report/

default.htmOther NOAA Climate Change Reports:http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/default.htm

• U.S. Global Change Research ProgramGlobal Climate Change Impacts in the US (2009):http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/previous-

assessments/global-climate-change-impacts-in-the-us-2009Other USGCRP Reports:http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-

assessments/us-impacts

Write a description of the greenhouse effect.

Science Notebook

Mitigating Climate Change

• Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are projected to double in the next 50 years.

• This would lead to a more than tripling of atmospheric CO2 since pre-industrial time.

This slide and the following slides use information provided by the Princeton University

Climate Mitigation Initiative (CMI)

To provide long-term climate stability, many environmental scientists recommend stabilizing CO2 concentrations at 450-500 ppm.

Mitigating Climate Change

Pre-industrial

Present

Forecast Threshold

2100 (current trend)

280 ppm

390 ppm

500 ppm

750 ppm

COCO22 Concentrations Concentrations

To reach this goal over the next 50 years, it is necessary to keep our future emissions at today’s levels….

…To maintain this level, further emissions reductions are required after 2060.

500 ppm CO2

• Keeping emissions flat for 50 years will require trimming projected carbon output by roughly 8 billion tons per year by 2060, keeping a total of ~175 billion tons of carbon from entering the atmosphere

Mitigating Climate Change

Eight “wedges”

20602005

14

7

1955

0

Currently

projected path

Flat path

Historical emissions

1.9

2105

16 GtC/y

8 GtC/yO

A “wedge” is any strategy that eliminates 1 billion tons of CO2 emissions per year.

An example is doubling the current average fuel economy of our cars.

Bill

ion

of T

ons

of C

arbo

n E

mitt

ed p

er Y

ear

Four Kinds of Wedges

• “E” - Electricity• “T” – Transportation• “H” – Heat• “B” - Biostorage

T=5T=5

E=6E=6B=3B=3

H=5H=5

LIMITS

Assumptions and Calculations for all Wedges can be found at http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/calculations.php

Transportation Efficiency

Double the efficiency of all cars Double the efficiency of all cars in 2060 from 30 mpg to 60 mpg.in 2060 from 30 mpg to 60 mpg.

T

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Transportation Conservation

Halve the Halve the number of number of miles driven miles driven by the by the world’s cars world’s cars by 2060.by 2060.

T

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Efficiency in Buildings

Cut total building Cut total building carbon emissions carbon emissions by 25% by 2060.by 25% by 2060.

A wedge would be achieved if we…

H

E

Electricity Generation Efficiency

Double the efficiency Double the efficiency (using today’s average) (using today’s average) of all coal-fired power of all coal-fired power plants by 2060.plants by 2060.

E

A wedge would be achieved if we…

CCS with Coal or Natural Gas Electricity

Apply CCS to 800 large coal or 1,600 Apply CCS to 800 large coal or 1,600 large natural gas power plants.large natural gas power plants.

E

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Applications

Hydrogen Production from Natural Gas

Steam Methane Reforming (SMR)Process– Gas is pressurized to about

360 psi– Steam at 850oc is added– The mixture is passed over

a catalyst, such as nickel

CHCH44 + H + H220 (steam) H0 (steam) H22 + CO + CO + CO + CO22catalyst

CCS with Hydrogen from Natural Gas

By 2060, we By 2060, we increase the increase the production of production of hydrogen by 10 hydrogen by 10 times and apply CCS times and apply CCS during production.during production.

H

T

A wedge would be achieved if…

What are Synfuels?

• Coal is heated and combined with steam and oxygen Coal is heated and combined with steam and oxygen • Carbon monoxide and hydrogen are released and Carbon monoxide and hydrogen are released and can be processed to make a liquid fuel can be processed to make a liquid fuel

• Allows use of a domestic resource to fuel gasoline Allows use of a domestic resource to fuel gasoline and diesel vehiclesand diesel vehicles

• Coal-based synfuels create 2x the COCoal-based synfuels create 2x the CO22 emissions of emissions of petroleum-based fuelspetroleum-based fuels

CCS Synfuels

Capture the carbon Capture the carbon emissions from 180 emissions from 180 large synfuel plants large synfuel plants by 2060.by 2060.

H

T

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Electricity-Switch from Coal to Natural Gas

Replace 1,400 large Replace 1,400 large coal plants with natural coal plants with natural gas plants by 2060.gas plants by 2060.

E

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Nuclear Electricity

Replace coal plants Replace coal plants with triple the world’s with triple the world’s current capacity of current capacity of nuclear power.nuclear power.

E

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Wind Electricity

Replace coal Replace coal plants with 10 plants with 10 times today’s times today’s wind capacity by wind capacity by 2060.2060.

E

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Solar Electricity

Replace coal Replace coal plants with 100 plants with 100 times today’s times today’s solar electric solar electric capacity. capacity.

E

A wedge would be achieved if we…

What is Electrolysis?

• Process that separates Process that separates hydrogen from waterhydrogen from water

• Requires electricityRequires electricity• More energy intensive than More energy intensive than SMR, but can utilize low SMR, but can utilize low carbon energy sourcescarbon energy sources

Wind Hydrogen

Increase today’s wind Increase today’s wind capacity by 26 times to capacity by 26 times to generate hydrogen via generate hydrogen via electrolysis. The hydrogen electrolysis. The hydrogen would allow us to replace would allow us to replace gasoline vehicles with fuel gasoline vehicles with fuel cell vehicles .cell vehicles .

E

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Biofuels

Increase today’s Increase today’s ethanol production by ethanol production by about 28 times, and about 28 times, and make it sustainable. make it sustainable. This production must This production must come entirely from come entirely from sugarcane, not corn.sugarcane, not corn.

H

T

A wedge would be achieved if we…

Forest Storage

Halt global deforestation by 2060.

A wedge would be achieved if we…

B

Soil Storage

Apply carbon Apply carbon management management strategies to all of strategies to all of the world’s crop the world’s crop lands.lands.

A wedge would be achieved if we…

B

Wedge Limits

• Total budget of 12 climate bucks

• In some cases, the 2nd time you use a wedge its cost increases

• See the Wedge Table for all limits

T=5T=5

E=6E=6B=3B=3

H=5H=5

LIMITS

Specific Wedge Limits

• You can only use 1 of each of these:– Transportation Conservation– Transportation Efficiency– Electricity Generation Efficiency– Soil Storage

• Efficiency in Buildings is ½ H + ½ T• In some cases have a choice of sector

when you use a wedge:– CCS Hydrogen from Natural Gas,CCS Synfuels,

Wind Hydrogen,Biofuels

Wedge Colors

•E = Pink•H = Yellow•T = Blue•B = Green04/18/23 The NEED Project 40

Wedge Poster Session

• What were the most important strategies you used in your solution?

• What was the hardest decision you had to make?

• Were there any disagreements in your group?

• I see you chose a ____ wedge. Did you consider the ______issues associated with that wedge?