50,000,000.00 714285 · dollar has weakened against major currencies. india services pmi came in at...

50,000,000.00

714285.7143

Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

● Coronavirus spreads in California, New York as U.S. death Toll rises to 11

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back

testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to

fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other

peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's

speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of

moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

69% 76% 75%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

After Reserve Bank of Australia (25bps) and the US Fed (50bps), the Bank of Canada

cut rates yesterday by 50bps. The Dow rallied 4.5% overnight cheering Joe Biden's

win in Super Tuesday primaries. Michael Bloomberg announced suspension of his

campaign after a poor show in the prinaries. US yields have recovered a tad. The US

Dollar has weakened against major currencies. India Services PMI came in at a 7 year

high at 57.50 indicating signs of pick up in the services sector. The RBI too may cut the

repo rate by 25bps in an out of policy move like other central banks. Indian bond

yields are at 3yr lows. 10y benchmark bond yield ended at 6.22%. We could see the

rally in bonds continue. Asian currencies are stronger against the US Dollar. Asian

equity indices are trading with gains of around 0.75%. Rupee is likely to open around

73.40. Likely range 73.20-73.60. Crude prices have come off as Russia does not seem

to be on board with the OPEC in cutting production. US Feb ADP payroll data was

better than expected yesterday and the ISM non manufacturing PMI was the highest

in a year underscoring the strength of the US economy. The rate by the US Fed is

preemptive and intended to preclude any slowdown in economic activity from

Coronavirus induced disruptions.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to hold with a stop loss of 73.00 as the onshore-

offshore forward points are +10 paise indicating upside bias. Importers are advised to

cover near term exposure through Risk reversal option strategy (Buy Call & Sell Put).

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

● Mike Bloomberg ends White House bid and backs Biden

● Russia opposes Saudi plan for drastic oil cuts

Dow rockets 4.5% as Biden

emerges ahead in Super

Tuesday Primaries

● 10-yr bond yields at 3 year low as markets brace for RBI action

● US conducts first airstrike against Taliban forces since peace deal

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

1.0800-1.1250 ↓

$1450- $1800 ↑ $1450- $1800 ↑

96.50- 99.00 ↑

0.6800- 0.7500

$1500- $1700 ↑

Headlines on Covid-

19 are likely to

influence the price

action this week

71.00-74.00 ↑

106.00-111.00 ↓

1.1200-1.1800 ↑1.1000-1.1500

1.2800-1.3800

Q4 FY 2019-20

102.00-108.00 105.00-110.00

69.50 - 73.50 ↑70.50-74.50 ↑

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2820 -1.2930)

IFA Outlook

Q3 FY 2020-21

March 5, 2020

Q1 FY 2020-21

FX Outlook for the day

69.50-74.50 ↑

1.2700-1.3300 ↓

0.6400-0.6800 ↓ 0.6450- 0.7100

95.00- 100.00 ↓

1.1000-1.1650 ↑

$1500- $1750 ↑

● USDINR (RANGE- 73.20 - 73.60)

The US dollar firms and US yields stabilise following a volatile post-

emergency Federal Reserve rate cut. In response to the coronavirus,

central bankers are either on standby to or have already taken initial

action by easing rates. investors will keep eyes on the coronavirus

related headlines as the numbers of the cases in the US, Europe and

Asia continue to spread.

USDINR opened higher today by 15 paise to 73.37 amid looming

worries over economic impact of the deadly coronavirus. Indian bond

yields are at 3yr lows and the domestic equities are up by 0.3% tracking

gains in Wall Street. The RBI too may cut the repo rate by 25bps in an

out of policy move like other central banks.

EURUSD fell back to the 1.1150 after printing a 2-month high at

1.1213. The Dollar slid over the last 2 weeks, was the primary benefit

for the Euro gains. USD now looks to have recovered the losses in the

wake of Fed’s 50 bps emergency rate cut. EU retail sales data showed

signs of recovery. Dollar price dynamics will continue to dominate the

price action.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 106.80 - 107.80)

Q2 FY 2020-21

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.1100 - 1.1180)

106.50-110.00 ↑


97.00- 100.00

1.2600-1.3600 ↓ 1.2800-1.3800

0.6500- 0.7000

95.00- 100.00 ↓

The British Pound continues to remain under pressure; first from frosty

headlines around the trade negotiations which commenced this week,

then from the underwhelming economic data which even prompted

bets that a rate cut would be performed by the Bank of England. Then

the coronavirus headlines took over, and the GBP suddenly found itself

under on the offer from different fronts.

“

”

“

”

“

”


USDINR pair is trading on a volatile note after opening

higher at 73.37. Technical factors suggest bullish

momentum to continue for the near term. 73.62 which

is yesterday's high is likely to act as a hurdle before

continuing further upside.

FIIs have so far

infused $10.76

billion in the

Financial year 2019-

20

Highest OI for Call

stands at 74.00 and

Put at 72.00 strike

price. Highest OI

intraday buildup is

seen at 73.50 strike

Call

Chart of the Day USDINR Spot 73.50

Activity Kurtosis

● USDINR Open Interest (March Expiry )


● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

March 5, 2020

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 1.09 1.02 0.99 0.97 USDINR 0.26 0.74 2.91 6.76

EUR -0.57 -0.57 -0.47 -0.41 EURINR 0.41 1.16 4.47 10.08

JPY 0.04 -0.16 -0.08 -0.01 GBPINR 0.38 1.09 4.12 9.30

JPYINR 0.33 0.94 3.64 8.27

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 26529.35 1.17 1642.80 -2.98 -0.18

3053.91 1.40 17.20 -0.06 -0.36

21283.61 0.87 47.94 0.76 1.61

INDIA 38548.46 0.36 97.22 0.07 0.07

11281.10 0.27 104.10 -0.03 -0.03

EUROPE 5464.89 1.33

12127.69 1.19 FY 2019-20 CY 2020 4-Mar-20

6815.59 1.45 62,155 7,973 -2,329

US 27090.86 4.53 8,936 -12,281 -1,486

9018.09 3.85 7,720 2,373 -7

78,811 -1,935 -3,821

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2

USDINR 71.81 72.27 72.50 72.96 73.19

EURINR 79.02 80.14 80.73 81.85 82.44

GBPINR 91.59 92.34 92.81 93.56 94.03

JPYINR 66.02 66.73 67.22 67.93 68.42

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

3-Mar INR 10:30 AM 57.5 52.9 55.5 BULLISH

EUR 2:30 PM 52.6 52.8 52.8 BEARISH

GBP 3:30 PM 53.2 53.3 53.3 BEARISH

USD 6:45 PM 183k 170K 291K BULLISH

USD 8:30 PM 57.3 54.9 55.5 BULLISH

4-Mar USD 7:00 PM 215K 219K

USD 8:30 PM -0.1% 1.8%

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)

Pivot Points

GLOBAL INDICES

DAX

FTSE

DOW

NASDAQ HYBRID

March 5, 2020

EURINR pair is now likely to find immediate

resistance at 82.44 (R2)

Quick Glance

CAC

FPI INFLOWS

DEBT

SHANGHAI

COMMODITIES/DI


Major Global Rates

SILVER ($/ounce)

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)HANG SENG

NIFTY

WTI CRUDE ($/brl)

Dollar INDEX

LIBOR Rates


Figures are in INR Crores

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Initial Jobless Claims

Nikkei Services PMI (Feb)

Services PMI (Feb)

SENSEX

Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)

Services PMI (Feb)

NIKKEI

Rolling Forward Premiums

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document

does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not

intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be

substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as

trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations

for individual securities or other instruments.

Headquarters:-

India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd.H-125, 1st Floor, Kanakia Zillion, LBS Marg,

CST Road Junction, Bandra Kurla Complex Annexe, Kurla West,Mumbai-400070

Research & Analytics Desk: +91 8879390076 | Treasury Audit & Bank Negotiation Desk: +91 8879630572 | FX & Treasury Advisory Desk: +91 8879600618 | FX Trading & Options Desk: +91 8291983820

Email: [email protected] can also visit our website: www.ifaglobal.net

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