50 + 3, полёт нормальный

What Happened Since 2011?

by Eugene V. Bobukh

Краткое Содержание Предыдущих Серий

1950sFirst satellite First nuclear tests in space

First spy satellite First interplanetary probes

1960sA man went to space

…and to the Moon

First space telescopes

Our probes reached Mars<= We killed nuclear propulsion

…and reached the limits of chemical one =>

1970sFirst generation space stations

Second generation space stations

“Distant” planets reached by probes

The birth of contemporary planetary science

1980s

Space Shuttle Permanent “temporary” solution

Third generation space stations

Commercial space freight

No robots or people to the Moon

Attempt and failure to build cheap launch system (project OTRAG)

1990sHubble space telescope

СССР медным тазом...

Space cooperation

International Space StationDelta Clipper is no more...

2000 -- 2011Orbital space tourism

SpaceX – private space freight

China – manned space flight

Asian players reach Moon, asteroids, Mars, Venus

Scramjet breakthrough

2011 – 2014. The Plan.

1. Manned Space Flight 2. Propulsion Development3. Solar System Planetary Research4. Beyond the Solar System5. [Briefly] New Telescopes6. Selected Research from EBI 2014

1. Manned Space Flight

Space Shuttle Grounded

Replacement unclear

Tiangong-1. Chinese Space Station• Third nation capable

of that• 1st generation• Two manned flights• Ambitious plans

Dragon | DragonRider © SpaceX

• Privately owned spacecraft capable of manned orbital flight and docking

• “My CEO has a spaceship!”

• Carries 7 people• ISS docking 2012• Manned plans >2015• Target launch cost

$140M (vs. $120-$180M for Soyuz)

Manned Mars Flights

• Numerous projects, most should’ve not even existed

• Three types of madness (technological, ethical, or just madness)

• The least insane: Inspiration Mars Foundation – by Dennis Tito – Manned flyby– Target launch 2018

Manned Flight Landscape Change

• European Space Agency (ESA) ~2020+

• Iran 2017• India >2017• Japan 2025• About 10 privately-

funded companies at least in development phase targeting manned LEO flight

• Motivational limit?

2. Propulsion Development

Scramjet Tests

• Concept: 1950s• Breakthrough:

2000s• USA: 05/2013 X-

51A WaveRider Mach 5.1 for 3 minutes

• China: 01/2014 WU-14 Mach 10+ [details unclear]

Single Stage to Orbit• Skylon (UK + ESA)– Airbreathing SABRE engine– Cools air 1000 C -> -150 C

in 0.01 sec– Capability demonstrated in

the lab for 6 mins in 2012

• Haas 2c (Austria + Romania)– LOX + kerosene rocket– 50 kg payload– 510 kg dry weight– 16,000 kg full weight

3. Solar System

Ice Confirmed on Mercury

• First seen via radars

• Confirmed by MESSENGER, USA 11/2012

• ~1015 kg

Venus Express• By ESA• Detailed understanding

of atmosphere• SO2 fluctuations =>

volcanism?• Infrared transparency

windows confirmed @ 1.1 mkm

• Emissivity areas interpreted as fresh (unweathered) lava flows around volcanoes.

Moon

• GRAIL (USA)• LADEE (USA)• Chang’e 3 lander

(China)• Yutu rover (China)

Mars

• Curiosity rover (USA)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZX5GRPnd4U

• (Other rovers and satellites keep working)

• Mars-3 discovered!

Asteroids• Dawn, USA (ion propulsion)• Visited Vesta in 2011• En route to Ceres, ETA 2015

?

Jupiter• Juno, USA• Launched Aug 2011• ETA July 2016• Targets Jupiter’s internal

structure and atmosphere– Deep atmosphere via

microwaves– Gravity of the interiors

• Carries a visible light camera solely for education and public outreach

4. Beyond The Solar System

5 minutes break?

1780 planets found as of 04/2014!

50% from Kepler mission 2009-2013-?Mostly close “hot Jupiters” so far but slowly extending

A “Pale Blue Dot”?• Most not even seen• Direct imaging for the

largest• Radius, mass, density for

many• Atmospheric transmission

spectra!• Detecting first molecules

in atmospheres (CH4, CO, CO2, H2O, H, Na, K)

• Building first surface maps• Shift space -> ground

tools

Exoplanets Zoo

• The nearest (to us) planet: Alf Cen B b 1.3 pc• The most distant from us (as measured): SWEEPS-11 8500 pc• The heaviest: USco1602-2401 b 47 Mjup (probably a brown dwarf), many around 10-20 Mjup

• The smallest: Kepler-9 d (0.02 MEarth, or 1/5th of Mercury)

• The closest to its star: PSR 1719-14 b, 0.0044 au (2.2 hours period)• The farthest from the star: HIP 77900 b, 3200 au• The hottest: probably USco1602-2401 b, 2790 K (some are calculated even hotter, 7000+ K)• The hottest primary star(s): Class B @33,000K for NY Vir b, class B6 @13,700K for HIP 77900

b• The coldest primary star(s): CFBDS 1458 b, near T9.5 @540K, WISE 1217+16A b near T8

@575 K• The least dense: Kepler-51 c, ~0.03* g/cm3, WASP-12b 0.33 g/cm3• The most dense: 2M 0746+20 b, ~40* g/cm3; PSR J1719-1438 b >23 g/cm3.• The darkest: TrES-2b, albedo 0.04 – 0.1% (black print is 2%)• With most suns: PH1b (AKA Kepler-64b) : 4 (F & M stars)• With most planets in one system: HD 10180 (6-9 per different sources) (G star)• Notable peculiarities

– At least 4 planets around pulsars– “Carbon” planets where C/O > 1. SiC crust.– Super-hot Jupiters with iron rain– Evaporating rocky planet: KIC 12557548 b (still debating)

5. (Some) New Telescopes

Галопом по Европам

New Or In Progress• Gaia space telescope (astrometry), launched

12/2013– Measure the position, distance, and annual

proper motion of stars with an accuracy of about 7-300 µas

– A fly on the Moon equivalent (but no pictures!)

• European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) 39.3 m. – Approved 2012, planned for 2022, 1 – 650 mas

resolution – (a fly on ISS)– eXtreme Adaptive Optics (XAO)– Biosignatures detection in exoplanets

atmospheres

• James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 6.5m, ETA 2018

• Two NRO spy telescopes donated to NASA -> Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope 2020s

• Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) – Will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit

around the brightest stars in the sky. NASA.– Approved 04/2013, launch planned for 2017

6. Conference MaterialsSearch for Life Beyond the Solar System — Exoplanets, Biomarkers and

Instruments Tucson, Arizona, March 2014

Progress Toward Reliable Planet Occurrence Rates with Kepler

• Natalie Batalha (NASA Ames Research Center)

• Approximately 7% of G & K dwarfs harbor a planet smaller than 1.5 Re in the optimistic HZ

• This closes a 400 years old question

Spectropolarimetry & Biosignatures

• How do you detect organic molecules out there?– Need to know which ones– Need to be sure they are not natural

• Chirality• Homochirality of biological matter• Sugar!• Circular dichroism and selective

reflection• “Scattered light microbial polarization

levels are in the range pc ≈ 10−3 to 10−4, the leaf has pc ≈ 2 × 10−3, whereas the iron oxide has a root mean square noise level pc ≈ 4 × 10−5, where pc is the degree of circular polarization”

Biosignatures from circular spectropolarimetry: key science

for ELTs?• K. G. Strassmeier, T. A.

Carroll & M. Mallonn (Leibniz-Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam (AIP), Germany)

• [Second picture: Towards Polarimetric Exoplanet Imaging with ELTs Christoph U. Keller (Leiden Observatory, keller@strw.leidenuniv.nl), Visa Korkiakoski (Leiden Observatory), Michiel Rodenhuis (Leiden Observatory), Frans Snik (Leiden Observatory)”]

• Wait for 2022+

Finding planets transiting the brightest stars with MASCARA

• J.F.P. Spronck (Leiden University), A.-L. Lesage (Leiden University), R. Stuik (Leiden University), F. Bettonvil (ASTRON), I.A.G. Snellen (Leiden University)

• 5 cameras per station• 24 mm F/1.4 Canon lenses• 11 Mpx CCD detectors• Magnitude range V = 4-8• Cost: around $100,000

Interplanetary Exchange of Meteoritic Material: From Europa to the Earth

• Ma del Carmen Ayala Loera (IA-UNAM, Ensenada), Mauricio Reyes Ruiz (IA-UNAM, Ensenada), Carlos E. Chavez Pech (FIME-AUNL), Hector Aceves Campos (IA-UNAM, Ensenada), Samuel Navarro (IA-UNAM, Ensenada).

• “A simple estimate of the collision probability of ejecta with Earth, indicates that for a high velocity impactor, which leads to high velocity ejecta, this can be as high as Pcol=0.034 for a single impact.

• Our results sugest that the exchange of crustal material from Europa with Earth and other solar system bodies, is possible. Orbital evolution suggests that some ejecta may evolve into interestellar transfers.”

Done!Thank you for attention!

Questions?

Backups

Pluto

• New Horizons (USA)

• ETA 07/2015• On the left: still

the best map of Pluto we have today

The Role of OxygenOxidizer

Pauling electronegativity

Solar System abundance (O == 100%)

Valence Comments

F 3.98 1*10-5 1 Very aggressive

O 3.44 100% 2 Used by our life

Cl 3.16 0.03% 1

N 3.04 13% 3 N2 is almost inert

Br 2.96 5*10-7 1

I 2.66 4*10-8 1

S 2.58 2.1% 2 Used by our life

Se 2.55 3*10-6 2

C 2.55 48% 4 Solid; yields to O and S

New Telescopes• Out

– Herschel Space Observatory – Kepler

• Real:– Hubble Space Telescope 1990– Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) 10.4 m – VLT 1,2,3, & 4 Very Large Telescope 4x8.2 m– CHARA array optical interferometer 6x1 m @330m, 0.5mas resolution in NIR– Spitzer Space Telescope– Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) (Phased-array optics for combined "11.9 m"[2])– Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer 2009 -- planets in IR, inclusing in the Solar System, and ultra-cold brown dwarfs

• Proposed or in construction: – Gaia space telescope (astrometry), launched 12/2013

• Determine the position, distance, and annual proper motion of 1 billion stars with an accuracy of about 20 µas (microarcsecond) at 15 mag, and 200 µas at 20 mag.

• Determine the positions of stars at a magnitude of V = 10 down to a precision of 7 (μas) (this is equivalent to measuring the diameter of a hair from 1000 km away); between 12 and 25 μas down to V = 15, and between 100 and 300 μas to V = 20, depending on the colour of the star.

– European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) 39.3 m. Approved 2012, planned for 2022, 1 – 650 mas resolution• eXtreme Adaptive Optics (XAO),

– Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) 20 m, construction planned to start in April 2014– Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) space telescope 2025 – 2035 for biosignatures collection– James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 6.5m cold, 0.6 to 28.2 mkm, planned launch in 2018– Two NRO spy telescopes donated to NASA -> Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WISE) -> 2020s– NEAT: an astrometric space telescope, 2015-2025 plan, 0.05μas @1σ– Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will discover thousands of exoplanets in orbit around the brightest stars in the sky. NASA,

Approved 04/2103, launch planned for 2017– Allen Telescope Array (ATA), also One Hectare Telescope (1hT). Under construction. Radiointerferometer, 350. ATA-42 complete in 2007,

• Survey 1,000,000 stars for SETI emission with enough sensitivity to detect an Arecibo radar out to 300 pc within the range of 1 and 10 GHz

– Planetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO), planned for 2024 • Discover and characterise a large number of close-by exoplanetary systems, with a precision in the determination of the planet mass up to 10%, of planet

radius of up to 2%, and of stellar age up to 10%.• Detect Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone around solar-type stars• Detect super-Earths in the habitable zone around solar-type stars

Conference Materials

• Synthetic Biology and the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Lynn J. Rothschild (NASA Ames Research Center, Lynn.J.Rothschild@nasa.gov), Kosuke Fujishima (University of California Santa Cruz, University Affiliated Research Center at NASA Ames Research Center) “our lab has begun using synthetic biology – the design and construction of new biological parts and systems and the redesign of existing ones for useful purposes – as an enabling technology. One theme, the “Hell Cell” project, focuses on creating artificial extremophiles in order to push the limits for Earth life, and to understand how difficult it is for life to evolve into extreme niches”

Conference Materials

• SETI Programs at the University of California, Berkeley Eric J. Korpela (University of California (UCB), korpela@ssl.berkeley.edu), Andrew V.P. Siemion (UCB, ASTRON), Dan Werthimer (UCB), Joshua Von Korff (Georgia State University), Abhimat Gautham (UCB), Jeff Cobb (UCB), Matt Lebofsky (UCB), Matt Dexter (UCB), David MacMahon (UCB), Shelley Wright (University of Toronto). Various directions, including strong μs duration dispersed radio pulses.

Conference Materials

• NEAT: an astrometric space telescope to search for habitable exoplanets in the solar neighborhood Antoine CROUZIER, et. al. “NEAT (Nearby Earth Astrometric Telescope) is a concept of astrometric mission proposed to ESA which goal is to make a whole sky survey of close (less then 20 pc) planetary systems. The detection limit required for the instrument is the astrometric signal of an Earth analog (at 10 pc). ”

Conference Materials

• Stellar orbits in the Galaxy and mass extinctions on the Earth: a connection? Gustavo F. Porto de Mello (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Wilton S. Dias (Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Jacques Lépine (Universidade de São Paulo, Diego Lorenzo-Oliveira (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rodrigo S. Kazu (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro) “We discuss the possible implications of this fact to the long-term habitability of the Earth, and possible correlations of the Sun’s passage through the spiral arms with the five great mass extinctions of the Earth’s biosphere from the Late Ordovician to the Cretaceous-Tertiary.”

Conference Materials

• Characterizing atmospheres of transiting planets from the ground Ignas Snellen (Leiden Observatory, The Netherlands): a ground-based spectroscopic method to detect “orbital inclination and masses of hundred(s) of non-transiting planets, line-by-line molecular band spectra, planet rotation and global wind patterns, longitudinal spectral variations, and possibly isotopologue ratios” for hot Jupiters and possibly smaller planets

Why fly?• Comsats, weather, maps, military?

– Need neither humans nor a flight too far.

• Mine resources?– Nothing (maybe except for 3He) comes even close to being economically or

energetically profitable

• Science, planetary research, astrophysics?– Robots are cheaper, easier to protect, and become increasingly smarter. – You don’t seriously propose that a Man’s Mission in space is of a repairman?

• Reduce Earth population? Colonize Mars?– At $1010 per person?

• Populate Antarctica or Sahara first…

– Radically different from Columbus’ situation who arrived to a *habitable* place!

• Meet other civilizations?– Not in Solar System and not via interstellar flight in any foreseeable future.

• Develop new technologies?– Possible. Better solution: give a talented team a bunch of $$$ and ask to build a

perpetuum mobile. The flow of engineering discoveries is guaranteed to never end!

Yet reality disagrees

People die to climb EverestSome live for years in Antarctica

Some spend years studying Neptune satellites

Some seriously propose one-way missions to Mars

There seems to be no reason

A glimpse from the past:artists’ impressions of Mars polar cup area:

By Georgy Kurnin, 1974 or much earlier. Has nothing to do with the reality.

By Reuters Pictures, 2008. Scientifically correct.

If you knew nothing about Mars, which picture would’ve likely convinced you to

go there?

If you think about that…

There is a demand for dream and inspiration, as strong as for food

and oxygen.

(and I don’t claim to know the ultimate answer)

When inspiration is the demand, art is the response

Yes, current manned spaceflight is… a form of art! Extremely expensive, risky, but incredibly inspiring one.

Yes, there is science and practical part here – and something more important: food for spirit.

In some sense, this picture indeed was worth $25B at the time.

It paid back to America way more than that – with international prestige, recognition, and most importantly with people who value science and are always looking up the skies for the unknown.