5 june 2006canberra, australia global trends in lai, f apar, burned area and fire using earth...
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5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth
Observation
Stephen Plummer (IGBP-ESA)Jing Chen and Feng Deng (U. Toronto)
Philippe Ciais (LSCE)
Nadine Gobron (JRC)
Roselyne Lacaze (MEDIAS)
Tristan Quaife and Martin De Kauwe (CTCD)
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Scientific Context
Source: Sarmiento & Gruber, 2002, Physics Today, 55, 30-36
Accumulation rate in atmosphere
Accumulation rate in ocean and on land
1 Pg C/yr
3.5 Pg C/yr2.5 Pg C/yr
6.5 Pg C/yr
Net UptakeOcean & Land
Large interannual variation in the annual atmospheric CO2 growth rate
Fossil fuel emissions
Growth rate of carbon reservoirs
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Inter-annual variations in CO2 growth rate
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Secular increase in primary productivity from satellite NDVI over the past 25 years
Nemani et al., Science 2003(% per year)
Regional greening and browning?
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation
• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index• FAPAR
• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Leaf Area Index GLOBCARBON
Deng et al. in press, TGARS
Feng Deng,Jing Chen
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
GLOBCARBON vs. MODIS - 1
Degraded to 10km, Barton Bendish (UK) 2001
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
GLOBCARBON vs. MODIS - 3
Degraded to 10km, Oregon (USA) 2001
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation
• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index• FAPAR
• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
The 2003 European Heat wave
Philippe Ciais
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Changes in FPAR between 2003 and former years
Philippe Ciais
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Vegetation ‘Trend’ 1999–2003
decrease increaseDecrease Increase
Biosphere Energy-Transfer HYdrology model
Knorr et. al. (2005) ‘ Global-Scale Drought Caused Atmospheric CO2 increase’, EOS, Transactions 86(18):178 & 181, 2005.
Nadine Gobron
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
NINO3 measures the strength of an ENSO event as the SSTA averaged over [5S,5N] and [150W,90W]. Image from: http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/descriptions/.nino3.html
99% significance
Niño3-SST Anomalies…1
Precipitation
Chen et al./NCEP-ClimatePrediction Centre
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
‘Trends’ at global scales
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Nadine Gobron
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation
• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index
• FAPAR
• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
GLOBCARBON uses the experience of these and some of the algorithms to produce a single burned area product – multi-annually.
Burned Area – No product = No trend
GBA-2000 Globscar
• Year 2000 – two independent demonstrators of global burned area: GLOBSCAR and GBA-2000
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Results – 1 km (Angola)
July 1998
GLOBSCAR only GBA only Both algorithms
Algorithm Detection (GLOBSCAR, GBA, Both)
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
MODIS Comparison – 1 km
July 2000
MODISGLOBCARBON
June 29
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation
• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index• FAPAR
• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
World Fire Atlas
308 or 312K – 3.7μm channel
Global
1995-present
ATSR-2 + AATSR
1km*1km
3-day repeat
monthly files in ascii format (Date, Lat and Long)
http://dup.esrin.esa.int/ionia/wfa/
Underestimation, industrial sites not masked, night-time
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Satellites do not see everythingTRMM v ATSR-2 (Jan 98)
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Diurnal Schematic
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time (hrs)
No
rmal
ised
so
lar
po
siti
on
NOAA-12
NOAA-14MODIS
ENVISAT
ERS-2
NOAA-14
ERS-2
NOAA-12
MODIS
ENVISAT
Fire 1
Fire 3
Fire 1 (next day)
MODIS
MODIS
Fire 2
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Seasonal – Inter-annual
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Continental
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Conclusion - 1
• While the products are becoming available, LAI currently does not have sufficient consistency for long times series analysis globally. Attempts to do so are possible but they should be viewed with caution.
• FAPAR derived from space has been shown to reliably exhibit strong signatures of climate and other stress impacts on vegetation.
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Conclusions - 2
• Burned area represents a similar story to LAI but with fewer products and there are problems at regional scales. GLOBCARBON will provide 10 years once reprocessed and MODIS is coming…
• Active fire data exist as long time series (ATSR-2 WFA, TRMM, MODIS) but they represent snapshots (no one product is better than another). They provide a means to examine climate trends and regional variation but ultimately it requires high resolution geostationary for continuous diurnal monitoring
• Continuity of biophysical products over long time series are needed with various instruments:
– Same type of high level products complete with quality values – Validation and comparison exercises for quality assessments.– Consistency over time and between products
5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia
Canberra Fires Jan 15 2003
Hot spots detected by ATSR-2 (left) and AATSR (right) with ½ hour spacing. Below actual scene zoom with saturated pixels in blue (>312deg)