5 June 2005

Strategic Plan2001

Challenges identified for NCARIntellectual

Human resource development and education

Application of science to societal needs

Strategic Plan2005Science-Society Interactions

“Societal needs of the next half-century”Global populationTechnological development and effects on environmentGlobal climate change and other environmental changes, including ‘surprises’

5 June 2005

Strategic Plan2005Science-Society Interactions

Strategic Plan2001

Activities: Annual climate change science/decision-maker meeting Policy-relevant research Create and distribute scientific information in response to societal needs Foster dialogues on atmospheric issues with interested publics Public outreach: summary and explanation of research activities & results,

and their linkage-relevance to societal concerns & national needs

Objectives: Develop science for national/international assessments of climate variability

and change, ozone depletion, etc. Improve understanding of the science-practice interface Develop collaborative ties to other societal impacts centers and relevant

stakeholder groups

Activities: Annual meeting on climate change science/decision-making Policy-relevant research Create and distribute scientific information in response to societal needs Foster dialogues on atmospheric issues with interested publics Public outreach: summary and explanation of research activities & results,

and their linkage-relevance to societal concerns & national needs

5 June 2005

Strategic Plan2001

to support, enhance, and extend the capabilitiesof the university community, nationally andinternationally; to understand the behavior ofthe atmospheric and related systems and theglobal environment; and to foster the transfer ofknowledge and technology for the betterment oflife on Earth.

NCAR’s Mission

Strategic Plan2005Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005

Challenges Related to the Atmosphere

Climate Change Imposes Increased Risks to Environment (Biosphere) and Society

NCAR does a tremendous job in its intellectual and technological contributions to understanding climate and weather

There needs to be a stronger link to where the science is needed most:

Society and Ecosystems

Biosphere – what we’re really interested in – environmental changes by themselves are not the problem, it’s what those environmental changes mean for life

5 June 2005

Climate Change

5 June 2005

TWO Major ChallengesLinking climate change and

the biosphereLinking society and science

"I say the debate is over. We know the science, we see the threat and we know the time for action is now." -- A. Schwarzenegger, June 1, 2005Environmental Action Plan for CA

2010, 2000 levels2020, 1990 levels2050, 80% of 1990 levels

"If we are saying that the loss of species in and of itself is inherently bad – I don't think we know enough about how the world works to say that." – Craig Manson, Int. Dept., appointed by Pres. Bush to oversee Endangered Species Act, Nov. 12, 2003

“I’ve always said it’s a serious long-term issue that needs to be dealt with, and … my administration isn’t waiting around... we lead the world when it comes to dollars spent - millions of dollars spent - on research about climate change. We want to know more about it. It’s easier to solve a problem when you know a lot about it.” – G. W. Bush, June 7, 2005, Meeting with Tony Blair

5 June 2005

Why this challenge?

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems(both managed and wild ecosystems)

Human activities affect virtually every ecosystem

Interactions between climate, ecosystems, and resource use are critical to understanding:

– climate change– environmental impacts– societal response options

Societal welfare ultimately depends on ecosystem welfare

The larger calling: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – identified gaps that fit

within NCAR’s mission.

5 June 2005

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – scientific gaps

1. Nature of interactions among drivers in particular regions and across scales

2. Responses of ecosystems to changes in nutrients and CO2

3. Nonlinear changes in ecosystems; thresholds; dynamic characteristics of systems that lead to irreversible changes

4. Relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services

5. Approaches to nest or link scenarios developed at different geographic scales

6. Models of the relationship between ecosystems and human well-being7. Models to link ecological and social processes

8. Communicating to non-specialists the complexity of holistic models and scenarios involving ecosystem services.

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems

Ass

essm

ent

Mod

elin

g

Com

m.

5 June 2005

Develop model output useful to ecosystem studies

Ensure that climate change is considered in ecosystem management

Combine climate change predictions with ecosystem response predictions

Simple - organism levelComplex - ecosystem response &

feedbacks (carbon cycle work)

Extremes rather than averagesVariables useful to ecosystem studiesInclude ecosystems in models

University researchers, ecosystem managers, etc

Some work already being tackled: Fisheries, agriculture, water resources

Encourage use of that output Data accessibilityDedicated visitor programColloquia

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems

1996-2005

50 published studies using GCM climate predictions in ecosystem studies

34 Hadley (HadCM2, HadCM3)16 CGCM13 NCAR (CSM, CCSM, LSM, PCM, RegCM) 7 ECHAM 4 CSIRO

5 June 2005

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #2Improving Science-Society Interactions

Why this challenge? Climate stresses on society will increase

What makes societal systems vulnerable?What increases society’s adaptive capacity?Where are thresholds to societal adaptability?

The larger calling:IPCC assessments – TAR and AR4 point to need for better decision-support,

understanding of human system dynamicsCCSP Strategic Plan – growing interest in decision supportNat. Acad. Sci. – various efforts linking physical and social sciences in context

of global environmental changeGEO – Global Environment Outlook of UNEP

The demand for relevant scientific information in support of decision-making will increase in all weather- and climate-sensitive sectors

What, when, in what form do decision-makers need scientific information?How can mutual interactions, trust, and benefits be increased?

The sustainability transition requires a significant role of (atmospheric) science and technology and understanding of human dynamics

5 June 2005

Growing partnerships with decision-makers in government and private sector

Enhanced research on science-decision making interactions, VAR, societal interactions

Identification of critical thresholds in societal and environmental systems

Facilitate use of science in critical decisions

Increase preparedness for weather & climate impacts and change

Role in national & international assessments

Modeling the human-system component of CCSM and regional models

Develop regional-global models that capture societal inputs in Earth System Modeling efforts

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #2Improving Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005

NCAR uniqueness, role as integrator and facilitator

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGESEcological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

Credible information source with tremendous modeling and expert capacity

Organizational structure that allows cross-disciplinary collaboration

NCAR can seize the opportunity to apply its expertise (atmospheric science) in biospheric and societal studies

5 June 2005

Scientific activities to make progress in topic area

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGESEcological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

Enhanced research on science–decision-making interaction, vulnerability-adaptation-resilience, and on societal interactions

Growing partnerships with decision-makers in government and private sector

Enhanced research on ecological impacts; stronger engagement of universities, etc

Combine climate change predictions with ecosystem response predictions

Develop model output useful to ecosystem studies

Encourage use of that output through workshops, etc.

5 June 2005

Leverage strengths/expertise of labs, divisions and institutes

SERE-ISSE SERE-CCB SERE-Box4

ESSL-CGD-CCSM, TIMES/BGS, ACDClimate ModelingModeling human system component of CCSMAir-pollution modeling

RAL - Decision-making toolsECSA Junior Faculty Forum

“Downscaling Climate Change: Extreme Events, Regional Impacts, and Ecosystems”

Opportunity Fund – ecology-climate proposals

• Vulnerability/adaptation• Use/value of information• Decision-making under

uncertainty• Communication and

social change• Regional modeling

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGESEcological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005

Tools needed to develop, improve or extend goals

GIS, agent-based modeling, policy analysis and other decision-support tools;

Achieving some goals are not tool-dependent

Modeling, ecological forecasting, dataset development (e.g., GIS)

Statistical downscaling and statistics of extreme events

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGESEcological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005

Support NCAR community service mission

Desirable/essential partnerships within/outside NCAR (esp. universities)

The mission of NCAR: Realize “science in the service of society” by

better understanding the interaction between science and society

Research and information transfer for “the betterment of life on Earth”

Natural integration across many NCAR groupsUniversity Community (beyond atmospheric

Sciences – Environmental and Social Sciences)Government agencies (national to local)RISA and other research & assessment centersInternational research centersNGO’sPrivate sector (e.g., energy companies, water

resources, insurance)

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGESEcological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005

Education, Outreach, Knowledge transfer

Natural avenue for connecting with public Make better use of NCAR’s expertise Expand public awareness of societal

dependence on ecosystems, and ecosystem dependence on climate

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGESEcological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005

EXISTING SUPPORT:1. Assessment Initiative2. Regional Modeling 3. ASP Postdoctoral Program4. CCB5. RAL – Technical support6. ESSL – Climate change research

NEEDS:Human Resources1. Ecosystem Scientists2. Social Scientists3. Strong visitor program

Strong Outreach1. Workshops2. Data development

MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGESEcological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

NCAR Capacity to Undertake Suggested Program

5 June 2005

Requirements:1. Understand societal needs (environment, health, well-being)2. Understand societal response to climate change and other

environmental issues3. Advance research that leads to “betterment of life on Earth”

This will help NCAR in its application of NCAR science to societal needs ; and will better illustrate the relevance of NCAR’s work

Two main challenges are natural avenues for pursuing these goals:1. Encouraging stronger research on Science-Society Interaction2. Stronger application of NCAR science to environmental studies

Improving Interactions between Science and Society

SUMMARY

Ecological Impacts Science-Society Interactions