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Exploring 5G: Performance Targets, Technologies & Timelines

Today’s Presenters

Gabriel Brown

Senior Analyst

Heavy Reading

Shahram Niri

Independent Technologist

(& Former General Manager for the 5G

Innovation Center)

Moderator Presenter

• Introduction to 5G

• 5G Market Activity

• 5G Technologies

• Q&A

Agenda

5G Introduction

An Onslaught of 5G Hype

Why is the Industry Focusing on 5G?

1. To secure funding for R&D work

2. To gain influence in the specification process

3. To attract development partners

4. To highlight IPR portfolios

5. To earn marketing advantage

5G Performance Targets

End-user data rates

Indoor / campus >> Up to 10 Gbit/s

Urban and suburban >> 100 Mbit/s

Far rural >> ~Mbit/s everywhere

System targets

Massive scalability >> Millions of devices

1000 X capacity >> Per Unit Area

Power consumption >> Up to 90% reduction

5G Spectrum: Sub 1GHz to 100GHz

• 5G will cater for entire spectrum band: sub 1GHz to 100 GHz

• 10GHz – 100GHZ (mmW) needed for multi Gbit/s

• Shared access spectrum to increase availability

• Flexible duplex (dynamic uplink & downlink; esp. small cells)

• Will 5G consist of multiple well-integrated radio interfaces?

• Or will 5G be a new air interface across the frequency range?

Source: Ericsson Review, June 2014

A Wide Range of Use-cases for 5G

• 5G platform should support many service-types

• Risky to define 5G technology according to a pre-defined view of the eventual services

Source: Huawei Source: Ericsson

5G Timeline

• Requirements phase underway

• Standardization expected to start in 2016

• Commercial launch from 2020?

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

WRC’12 WRC’15 WRC’18/19

Exploratory research

Pre-

standardization

activities

CommercializationStandardization

activities

Source: METIS

5G Market Activity

• DOCOMO to conduct 5G experimental trials with six leading technology vendors

– Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Fujitsu, NEC, Nokia, Samsung

NTT DoCoMo

• Outdoor field trials planned for 2015 ahead of the start of specification work in 2016

Google – Investigating 5G Wireless?

• History of investigation of next-gen wireless technologies

• Alpanetal acquisition for self-organizing, low power Gigabit wireless technology

– Extend fiber optics using 60GHz mmWave radio

– Potentially part of a 5G type solution for LOS indoor or outdoor applications

• Google now influential on spectrum allocation

• Is 5G a point of disruption for market entry?

• Important that cars can communicate with each other and with other participants in the city

• Highlights role of 5G in the “Gigabit Cities” concept

BMW – “5G is key to self-driving car”

• Requires ultra-reliable, low-latency, networks that work everywhere

• Device-to-device communication when out of operator range

• Radio is interface is the critical part of 5G, but apps will have many other performance dependencies

• Major RAN vendors will be critical players

– Depth of R&D expertise

– Accumulated radio interface technologies

– Will position 5G as a smooth upgrade from LTE-A?

• China will be a critical actor in 5G

– Assuming a leadership role not seen in 3G & 4G

– Backing itself with vast R&D investment

– A net positive for 5G technology development

Other Market Activity

5G Will be a Collaborative Development

• A number of non-aligned organisations funding and directing research projects

• Significant bi-lateral industry cooperation between vendors, operators, & others

5G Technologies

Drivers For Next Generation (5G)

Growing Population

Hyper Connectivity

Limited Resources

Higher Capacity

Green Technology

Cost Efficiency

Quality of Experience

Number of connections and also the volume of data over wireless networks continuously growing at a significant rate

Users more demanding on quality & price

Capacity challenge is real particularly in radio

Radio spectrum the blood line of wireless is a finite resources, scarce and expensive

The data volume growth will continue but dependent on the service quality offered by the NW and of course the data tariffs

Sustainability of mobile broadband business - Ever increasing traffic, higher TCO and flattening ARPU

3G & 4G both promised improvements in NW capacity, data rate,efficiency, cost and quality. 5G will be no exception but the sheer

scale of the challenges this time makes 5G research different.

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 18

Values subject to assumption

Modest increase in number of devices and usage

Traffic growth: ~70% CAGR

In 2020 depending on the environment

traffic per km2 (1.5 to 60 Gb/s/km2)

UK needs at least ~ 15 - 20 x capacity (2013-2020)

Current LTE technology will not accommodate the predicted traffic growth

The next generation will need to be designed not for 2020 but for 2025-2030 capacity

Capacity Challenge

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Gb

/s/k

m2

Traffic growth for cases a to d

Case a: Inner London business Case b: Office Case c: UK Peak Case d: UK mean

Impact of transmission mode change (ISD=300, 20 MHz bandwidth)

X f

old

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

SU-MIMO 2x2 SU-MIMO 2x4 JP CoMP 4x2 SU-MIMO 8x2

Transmission Mode

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 19

Significant air interface capacity- Focus on area NOT JUST link spectral efficiency- Designed for small Cells (capacity), extended to coverage- More spectrum (Licensed & unlicensed operation, spectrum sharing & other sources)

Super low latency- Sub 1 ms, TTI: 10-25 ms- Faster signaling for higher data rate, in line with data rate- U plan latency: frame structure, control signal timing, HARQ- For new services (MTC, gaming, ….)- For distributed control

Super reliable- For new services and applications- Smart transport, e-health, intelligent control, …

The higher capacity and lower latency necessary for wide range of services BUT not all the services required in the same location, at the same time nor by the same air interface

May need tradeoffs in capacity, coverage and data rate

Air Interface Performance

X10

(Faster than 4G) X100+

(Connections)X1000+

(Capacity)

10 100 1000

Sub 1 ms latency

99.99% reliability & availability

Tech 3G HSPA+ LTE LTE-A 5G

BandwidthMHz

5 5 20 100 100+

SEb/Hz/cell

0.5 2 4 ~8 10+

Peak RateMb/s

2 42 & 11

326 &86

1000 &375

10000 &5000

Latencyms

50 20 10 10 0.1-1

ASEGb/s/km2

?

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 20

OPEX

60%

CAPEX

40%

Greener Telecom Lower CTO

Greener technology (energy efficiency)- Current 2% ICT share of CO2 emission is likely to increase- Power consumption doubled in past 5 years- More power efficient HW & SW, needed- Reducing signaling through intelligent O&M and SON- Alternative energy sources

Reduced Total Cost of Ownership- For x1000 need to achieve 1/1000 delivery cost per bit!?- Deliver cost will need to be recalculated as cost per bit/km2- Saving through energy consumption- Saving through lower cost of operation (Plug & Play, Self managed NW, Zero touch)

- Spectrum and infrastructure sharing- Longer HW life cycle time- New business models -> new revenue models

Efficiency & Cost Requirements

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 21

Multiple accessCarrier bandwidthRT Delay

TDMA124 KHz150 ms

WCDMA5 MHz50 ms

OFDMA&CS-OFDM20 ->100 MHz10 ms

Small Cell / High frequency 100 Mhz -> higher0.1-1 ms

Data rate 9.6 - 100 kb/s-> GPRS

2 - 42 / 100 Mb/s-> HSPA+ & MC

300 Mb/s - 1 Gb/s-> LTE-A

10 – 100 Gb/sAsymmetric & balanced UL/DL

Transport TDMCopper & MW

TDM/ATM Copper & MW

IP/MPLS Fiber & MW

IP/MPLS - Self BackhaulingFiber, MW & mmW

Core NW CS Core CS and PS core All PS (Flat IP) Flatter, NFV, SDN

Services Voice /SMS Voice & Data/Multimedia

IP Voice & DataMobile Internet

IP Voice & Data (HD, 3D, …)TV (Broadcast & Multicast), D2D

ServicePricing

Voice and SMSUsage based

Usage based ->Unlimited/Capped

Unlimited/Capped OTT, CloudFree voice(?), Unlimited/Capped

Spectrum L bandLicenced operation

L bandLicenced operation

L & S bandLicenced operation

Millimetre band (C, K, E, ….)Licensed & unlicensed operation

Spectrum sharing

2G3G

4G

Full IPFlat ArchitectureEfficiency1 STD

Capacity Spectral efficiencyQoENew Services New operation modelsOthers

DigitalMobility & Roaming4+ STDs

2.5GGPRS

3.5GHSPA

LTE-A

Multi-mediaCS & PS2 STDs

5G

1990’s 2000’s 2010’s 2020’s

SDR

Technology & Standards Evolution

?

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 22

New Air Interface (Small Cells)

New waveformsNew duplexingHigher order modulationInterference cancelation / utilizationMassive MIMO / Distributed MIMOMU 3D Beam formingMulti-cell cooperationNew MAC (Light MAC)

Radio Frequency

Millimeter waveNew licensing regime Licensed & unlicensed band operationSpectrum sharing Dynamic allocation

Cognitive radio and network Opportunistic & adaptive use of resourcesSpectrum sensing Automated networks/ Plug & playLower and smarter use of energy

Mixed Cell & Het-Net managementCentralized RAN / Cloud RANSW Defined Radio (SDR) & Networks (SDN)

Separation of data & control planesNo cell architectureIntegrated NW (Mobile+ broadcast/multicast)

Network sharing

Enabling Technologies to Make-up 5G

New NW Architecture

Intelligent & Adaptive Networks

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 23

,

int erference 0

log 1j k

ki

i j

P

C WP N

Multi-cell Cooperation

Coordinated Scheduling3D Beam forming

Higher order modulation

More SpectrumCarrier AggregationFull-duplex radio Cognitive RadioDynamic Spectrum SharingNon-orthogonal transmission

More Antennas (Large MIMO)

Interference cancelation / utilization

Higher capacity to be delivered by a combination of several techniques AND densification of network (Small Cells)

New Air Interface For 5G

Simplified air interface capacity equation

- Much higher spectral efficiency- Enhanced frequency and time synchronisation - Better interference cancelation / utilisation - Higher order modulation and better coding- Transmit and receive simultaneously- More resilient to channel estimation error- Better use of highly fragmented spectrum - A much better radio resource management- Multi cell operation- Cooperative transmission in uplink and downlink- More antennas (larger MIMO)- Separation control and data plane

- Designed for small cells - A more suitable MAC protocol for small cell- Much higher energy efficient

- Enable new services- Scalable for various traffic requirements- AND more!

24Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

New generations are mainly defined by new air interfaces / waveformsA new air interface / new physical layer not for a few dB gain but a total overhaul of the physical layer

Business

Model

5G

Lowering TCO (cost per bit / km2)Greener telecommunicationsIncreasing life time of the products

(delivering technology through SW)

New air interfaceSpectrum & radio frequency Millimetre waveNew NW architectureIntelligent & adaptive network

“Perception of infinite capacity for users”Quality of Experience (Latency &

Reliability)New services, e.g. Device 2 device

Rethinking spectrum allocation Dynamic Allocation Spectrum sharingLicensed & unlicensed operationIntegrated NW & services

(Mobile+ Broadcast/Multicast)New business modelsNetwork sharingNew revenue modelsB2C, B2B, B2B2C, C2CUtility service type operation

An Opportunity to Rethink the Mobile Business

5G success depends not only the technology but also rethinking business models, policies and economics of radio spectrum regulation

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 25

2G, 3G, 4G

5G (?)

5G5G

BW: 100+BW: 100+

Licensed Unlicensed / Soft Licensed

BW: <100

1GHz 3GHz 30GHz 60GHz 90Ghz

Bandwidth (GHz)

Cell Size (m)

Speed (Gb/s)*

Frequency Band

1-10 10-100

Licensed Unlicensed

Shared

Best use of low (below 6Ghz) & high frequencies (mmWave) - Sub 6GHz as core spectrum, mmWave (10-100 GHz) for ultra dense access & backhaul, Supplementary ServicesIdeally 100+ MHz channel bandwidthDynamic Spectrum Allocation Coordinated Shared Access Use of temporal & local availability of spectrumCarrier Aggregation

Core Spectrum

Supplementary Spectrum

Spectrum remains a challenge for 5G and for the wireless industry

5G & Spectrum

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014 26

LTE AMar 10

3G/ HSPA+

LTE B(?)Sep 14R

12

4G / LTEDec 08

Dec 09

Jun 13

R992000

R1

3R

14

Sep 15(?)

5G2016 (?)

(?)

Higher Order Modulation, D2D, MTC+, CA +, ...

Unlicensed LTE, ....

CDMA

New Waveform

OFDMA

5G Standardization & 3GPP Release Evolution

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

3G: Started in 1989, standards in 1999, commercial in 2003 4G: Started in 2000, standards in 2008, commercial in 2011 5G: Standardisation 2016, commercial readiness in 2020+

27

• Rethink the Architecture: Network-Centric to User-Centric

The “No Cell” Network

Source: China Mobile Research

5G Architecture (METIS)

Internet

MMC

D2D / URC

MN

UDN

Aggregation Network (local, regional, national)

Massive

MIMO

Wireless access

Wireless fronthaul

Wired fronthaul

Wired backhaul

Internet access

C-RAN

CoMP

Mobile Core

– Centralized

Functions

+ OAM

C-RAN +

Mobile Core – Distributed Functions

(incl. optional local breakout or CDN)

Macro radio node*

Small cell radio node*, e.g.

micro, (ultra-)pico, femto

Note: Indoor cells not shown!

…

Centralized

or

distributed?

* Only Remote Radio Units (RRUs) assumed.

Local break out & Distributed mobile core functions

Accelerated content delivery

Tech. Dependent D2D, MMC (Massive Machine Comm.), Moving Networks (MN), UDN Ultra-reliable Comm. (URC)

Amazingly Fast scenariohigh data rates & network capacities

Ultra-Dense Networks (UDN)ISD about 10 m

>= 1 radio nodes per room

Source: METIS

• 5G will consist of a combination of techniques & technologies

• 5G will change the system architecture, especially the RAN

• A much denser network (small cells) will be key to 5G design

• Spectrum remains a challenge for the wireless industry; spectrum sharing will be critical

• A greater degree of network sharing may be needed in 5G

• 5G success depends rethinking business models, policies and economics of radio spectrum regulation

Concluding Remarks

Q&A

Thank You!