#4astransformation 2013 - march 12 - tvb - ken goldstein
DESCRIPTION
What advertisers can learn about winning from the 2012 Presidential Race (Celestin F-H) Will Feltus, SVP, National Media **Ken Goldstein, President, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group Moderated by: Jack Poor, VP Marketing Insights, Political Research & Analysis, TVBTRANSCRIPT
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What advertisers can learn about winning and losingfrom the 2012 Presidential campaign
Will FeltusSVP, National Media Research, Planning and Placement LLC
Ken GoldsteinPresident, Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group
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• What political campaigns do.
• How voters use media today. Some examples.
• Gaining separation: differences between the Obama and Romney campaigns on television.
• Don’t run your next campaign like your last one. What’s ahead.
Agenda
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Creative & Account Mgt.
Media Buyer
Client
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Client
Creative & Account Mgt.
Media Buyer
Client
Media Team
Old Model Modern Model
Creative Team
Beginning with Bush in 2000, a few large political campaigns began separating the creative and media
functions. But most still use the old model.
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VOTER TARGETINGDefine & Redefine
MESSAGING & CREATIVESTRATEGY
COMMUNICATIONSSTRATEGY &
BUDGET
INTERNAL TRACKING
CREATIVE TESTING
MEDIA RESEARCH
DATA ANALYTICS & VOTER RESEARCH
WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODELCOMPETITIVE TRACKING
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
Direct voter contact
News media
Paid advertising
Internet + social media
FUNDRAISING
DONOR DEVELOPMENT
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VOTER TARGETINGDefine & Redefine
MESSAGING & CREATIVESTRATEGY
COMMUNICATIONSSTRATEGY &
BUDGET
INTERNAL TRACKINGo Tracking of news volume and
sentiment, website activity, social media traffic and trends, political elite buzz.
o Tracking polls.o Voter contact data and
analytics.
CREATIVE TESTINGo Focus and dial groups.o Field experiments.o Internet surveys & A/B testing.o Polling.
MEDIA RESEARCHo Nielsen, Arbitron,
Comscore.o Scarborough, MRI,
Simmons, Rentrak.o Field experiments.o Communication costs and
fundraising forecasts.
DATA ANALYTICS& VOTER RESEARCHo Historical voting data.o Demographic and
consumer behavior data.o Benchmark polling and
micro-targeting surveys.o Enhanced voter file and
database.
WHAT CAMPAIGNS DO: A MODEL COMPETITIVE TRACKINGo Forward-looking monitoring of
ad dollars ordered by opponents and third-party allies
o Daily advertising placements and creatives from Kantar/CMAG
o News volume and sentiment.
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
Direct voter contact
News media
Paid advertising
Internet + social media
FUNDRAISING
DONOR DEVELOPMENTo Donor relationship management.o Major donor feedback.o New/repeat donors and dollars.
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Consumption level
Brand preference
Voters are consumers of politics.
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Voters are consumers of politics.
Consumption level
Brand preference
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
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t In
de
x
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Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
100
0
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
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HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Series3; 0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
00
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7070
80
90
100
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130
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High Turnout Republican Voters
U.S. Political Profile: Auto-mobile Ownership
Republicans drive more carsthan Democrats.
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-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7070
80
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High Turnout Republican Voters
Series3; 0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0H
IGH
TU
RN
OU
TLO
W
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
High Turnout Democrat Voters
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-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 5060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Series3; 0
000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sauvignon Blanc
0
0
Political Happy HourH
IGH
TU
RN
OU
TLO
W
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
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-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 3040
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
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130
1
0
00
00
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Republicans drive more cars,while Democrats watch more television.
HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
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HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-30 -20 -10 0 10 2080
90
100
110
120
130
Radio 1st Quintile (heaviest)
Radio 5th Quintile (lightest)
0
Television 5th Quintile (lightest)
Internet 1st Quintile (heaviest)
Internet 5th Quintile (lightest)
0
0
U.S. Overall Media Con-sumptionHeaviest and Lightest Users
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GOP’s “GRP Gap”: Democrat Base voters are 24% more likely to be watching broadcast TV Monday-Friday
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HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 9050
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Series3; 0
Discovery
00
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
U.S. Political Profile: Cable networks viewed past 7 days
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HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 11060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Series3; 23
20
18
16
15
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
ESPN2: Mike & Mike In Morn-ing
5
Comedy Central: Colbert Report
5
4
4
43
3
3
3
3
2
CNN: John King
2
2
2
2
CNN: Erin Burnett OutFront
1U.S. Political Profile: Cable Program Audiences
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HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 5050
70
90
110
130
150
170
Series3; 15
14
13
12
Law & Order: SVU
10
10
NBC NFL Sun Night Football
9
8
8
8
14
7
6
7
7
66
6
55
55
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
32
2
ABC Sat Night Movie
2
2
2
Bachelorette
2
11
1
1
U.S. Political Profile: Broadcast Primetime AudiencesAverage Program Audience
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HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
T
UR
NO
UT
Vo
ter
Turn
ou
t In
de
x
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 6060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Series3; 0
0 0
0
0
NBA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WNBA
0
0
0
U.S. Political Profile: Sports Audiences
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HIG
H T
UR
NO
UT
LOW
TU
RN
OU
TV
ote
r Tu
rno
ut
Ind
ex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 4070
80
90
100
110
120
Search
1
0
0
0
Watch video clips
Maps/GPS
0
News/weather/traffic
Search
0
Music
Social networking
Download apps
Music
Games (play/download)
0
Restaurant info
0
Daily deals (LivingSocial, etc.)
0
0
Watch video clipsBanking
0
Video games
0
Watch TV programs
0
Sports scores/updates
0
Shopping
0
0
0
0
0
Podcasts
0
0
0
U.S. Political Profile: Ways Inter-net/Mobile used past 30 daysBlue bubbles = Internet use; Green bubbles = Mobile use
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VOTER TARGETINGDefine & Redefine
MESSAGING & CREATIVESTRATEGY
COMMUNICATIONSSTRATEGY & BUDGET
INTERNAL TRACKING
CREATIVE TESTING
MEDIA RESEARCH
DATA ANALYTICS & VOTER RESEARCH COMPETITIVE TRACKING
COMMUNICATIONS CHANNELS
Direct voter contact
News media
Paid advertising
Internet + social media
FUNDRAISING
DONOR DEVELOPMENT
Two things consumer campaigns can do that political campaigns cannot:1. Plan and implement over a multi-quarter time horizon. 2. Continually monitor ROI based on sales data.
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Gaining SeparationMarket
Time
Show or show genre
Message
© 2010 Kantar Media
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Presidential TV Advertising By TypeSelect Markets
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DEM GOP
Cleveland $24,900,000 $25,600,000 Denver $21,800,000 $19,300,000 Las Vegas $13,200,000 $16,100,000 Orlando $22,200,000 $17,800,000 Richmond $7,900,000 $9,100,000
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Obama bought more spots on expensive prime and sports, but still paid less per spot than Romney.
Competitive spending estimates from Polaris/NMRPP
Barack Obama 553,782 46.0% 261,767,528$ 36.8% 473$
Mitt Romney 250,876 20.9% 180,875,414$ 25.4% 721$
Obama + Ally 618,681 51% 297,403,284$ 42% 481$
Romney + Allies 584,466 49% 413,711,009$ 58% 708$
1,203,147 100% $711,114,293 100% 591$
Estimated Local Spot Spending
Local Broadcast TV
Average Cost per
Spot
As % of Total
Spending
Local Spots Aired
As % of Total Aired
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Anti-Romney vs. Pro-Romney TV Ads
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Category Share of Market Ad Time
Politics Share
Politics Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos Total
< 2% 0.5% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7% 100.0%
2-5% 3.2% 13.8% 8.1% 4.4% 53.2% 17.3% 100.0%
5-10% 7.1% 13.4% 7.9% 3.7% 50.2% 17.8% 100.0%
10-20% 13.7% 10.1% 7.7% 3.5% 47.0% 18.0% 100.0%
20-30% 24.0% 9.7% 6.5% 2.7% 39.1% 18.0% 100.0%
>30% 38.3% 6.0% 5.0% 2.6% 30.7% 17.4% 100.0%
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How To Read: In weeks when political share of ad time is less than 2%, auto share of ad time average 13.7 %
Impact of Political on Other Advertising
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Category Share Ratio Of Market Ad Time
Politics % Share
Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos
< 2% 13.7% 9.5% 4.3% 54.4% 17.7%
Ratio 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5%
5-10%
10-20%
20-30%
>30%
33
Impact of Political on Other Advertising
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Category Share Ratio of Market Ad Time
Politics % Share
Auto Telecom Restaurants All Other Paid Promos
<2% 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5% 1.01 0.85 1.03 0.98 0.98
5-10% 0.98 0.82 0.87 0.92 1.01
10-20% 0.74 0.81 0.83 0.86 1.02
20-30% 0.71 0.69 0.64 0.72 1.02
>30% 0.44 0.53 0.60 0.56 0.98
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Impact of Political on Other Advertising