48v mild hybrid by idtechex at automechanika

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Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031

Dr Peter Harrop / www.IDTechEx.com / [email protected]

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The only quick, low-cost way of keeping most conventional vehicles legal under tighter emissions regulations 2025/2030. In the decade 2016-2026 and maybe to 2031, there may be more 48V MH cars made than strong hybrid and pure electric cars combined. Volume sales begin in 2017.In its most advanced form it promises brief pure electric drive for smooth and silent take-off, parking, creeping and sailing (active coasting). That meets the definition of an electric vehicle.

Audi 48V demo


Primary motivation is emissions reduction meeting the onerous 2025 and 2030 regulations more easily and more affordably than by EV (ie strong hybrid or pure electric). Otherwise impossible for conventional powertrains beyond those for small vehicles. Reduces CO2 emissions by 10-20%, depending on the test cycle. Attractiveness of 48V mild hybrids to OEMs is enhanced by the forthcoming Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure & Cycle (WLTP/WLTC).

48V mild hybrids will be 50-75% cheaper than full hybrids (Valeo).

Hyundai estimates 25% of cost of a full hybrid but a weight penalty of 46kg.

48V devices and interconnects are smaller and lighter eg wiring harnesses - four times the voltage means the current reduced by a magnitude of four, so wire diameter can be reduced or Cu replaced with cheaper Al.

Secondary benefit improving performance and pleasure more easily and affordably than by EV. This secondary benefit gives such things as improved acceleration, ride (active suspension), quietness (engine downsized/ downspeeded, silent pure electric take-off, silent stop-start.)

Great development potential eg handle many more clients and sources (regen. And energy harvesting from ambient energy

Why 48V “mild hybrid” architecture for conventional internal combustion engine vehicle?


Source Continental with IDTechEx quote

AB Elektronik recently showed 20kW route


Existing 12V cars and 24V trucks and buses had almost run out of development potential

Cannot accept the hundreds and thousands of kilowatts from regenerative braking and other regeneration (thermoelectric, exhaust turbine, regenerative suspension etc)

Cannot provide the 15 kW for more and more electrification for better ride, economy, emissions. (supercharger, air conditioning, pumps..)

Cannot ever drive the wheels electrically – no electric motor, not enough power

INADEQUATE POWER HANDLING AND STORAGE. 12V/24 does not scale up.


Replace the engine with a smaller downspeeded oneReplace the alternator with a reversing electric machine that can boost the engine when needed (“torque assist”) accept full regen braking, start the engine and later drive the wheels briefly pure electric.Jargon “Boost Recuperation Machine”/ “Belt Drive Starter Generator BSG”. “Integrated Starter Generator ISG”.Two way DC-DC converter lets the above machine charge on demand both the existing 12V battery and an added 48V battery Add a large 48V battery such as a lithium-ion battery that has higher energy density and is a bit bigger than the existing lead acid battery but lighter with 4X storage. It can power the car along on its own for brief intervals

How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car Add a high capacity high power density 48V battery eg Li-ion or advanced lead-acid

For now, keep the 12V PbAbattery for

safety critical operations and

ones too expensive to

convert

2 way DC-DC inverter


Car accepts, provides and stores four times as much electricity.More electrical outputs: Electrify devices that further reduce emissions and improve performance and comfort –Power steering, aircon, supercharger…..) More electrical inputs:Fully efficient regenerative brakingSolar, infrared, wind, turbine in exhaust, thermoelectric on exhaust, triboelectric tires, energy harvesting shock absorbers/ active suspension……..

Result


Image source Continental November 2015

First generation 48V system: belt drive starter generator gives torque assist (boost for 60% engine down sizing) but usually no PEV modes. Much work done by the old 12V battery system.


Not just cars!Source Green Car Congress


The show so far: adoption of electrified powertrainsApplication Reason

Buses, golf cars, microcars, microEVs, mobility for disabled, bikes, motorbikes, small boats, autonomous underwater vehicles, small aircraft including drones, airships, military land water air

Emissions illegal indoors, increasingly unacceptable in city centers and impracticable under water. PEVs can be Energy Independent Vehicles EIV that never plug in. Best rider experience. Only practicable option for most Autonomous Vehicles AV and extreme stop-start cycles. For military: stealth, minimal heat or noise emissions for missiles to home in on, easy provision of redundancy for attack tolerance

Upgrading of conventional cars and trucks

Cost-effective, rapid meeting of new emissions regulations while improving rider experience

Cars, trucks, some large buses, aircraft, motorbikes, mining, construction, agriculture, military, outdoor forklifts

Good fuel economy/ emissions, heavy duty cycles without severe range limitation in affordable form. However, large hybrid buses are losing out to pure electric as urban PEV range becomes adequate and PEV mode is increasingly demanded in city centers. Contrast large hybrid trucks which need much longer range and have minimal stop start.


Almost all mild hybrids are being standardised on 48VBy far the biggest market these will be for on-road vehicles, notably cars and trucks but there will be off-road and marine applicationsAll leading manufacturers of conventional cars are working on 48V mild hybrid versions primarily because they see it as the best way of meeting more onerous emissions legislation in the 2025-2030 timeframe. Automotive companies prioritise 48V mild hybrid very differently as exemplified below.Powertrain electrification priorities of automotive companies for the next ten years

Best solutions for market needs 2016-2030

Prioritising 48V mild hybrid

Prioritising full hybrid and pure electric but doing many 48V mild hybrid

Prioritising full hybrid and pure electric and doing few 48V mild hybrid

Prioritising pure electric and full hybrid and nothing else

Doing pure electric and nothing else

VolkswagenGMFiat ChryslerMercedesSuzukiVolvo Trucks

HyundaiToyotaProtonMazdaHondaFord

BMWNissanYutongGeelyCSR TimesBAIC

BYD TeslaTerra MotorsPihsiangZero MotorcyclesPolaris IndustriesCharlatte


Different views concerning dual 12V + 48V systems expressed in our 2016 interviews and events

Window of opportunity for 48V mild hybrids 10 years

Well over 10 years

VocisGKN

VolkswagenContinentalCSA GroupCPTEPS

48V alone will be dominant in a few years from now

Dual voltage systems will be popular for at least ten years

GMFordUK automotive professorEnergy Power SystemsCSA Group (“possible”)GKN

VolkswagenAudiContinentalBoschDaimlerHellaMDL TechnologiesRomax TechnologyContinentalCPT


Electric cars (strong hybrid and pure electric cars) vs 48V mild hybrid and conventional cars: number K 2014-203148V mild hybrid never takes 100% of the conventional car market because some small cars will meet emissions laws without it and some countries will have loosely enforced legislation. Only IDTechEx forecasts EVs in 46 categories land water air.

Pure electric for

long periods

Torque assist (boost) permits engine

downsize.Four brief pure electric modes

available in later years

Often with stop start

Collapse could be earlier if Apple/ Tesla

style pure electric buying frenzy occurs (like smart phones)

Possible saturation or drop in total market if rental/ use-on-demand

widely used eg in China


Global interest in 48V mild hybrids, particularly for C and D cars. First sales 2017. B cars, light commercial and trucks later.48V mild hybrids will be the lowest cost way of meeting 2025/ 2030 emissions lawsExpect big success. Conventional ICE becomes illegal, strong hybrids that do not plug in too expensive. Weight and cost a bit higher than conventional initially. 48V mild hybrids will have 1 or 2 integrated starter-generators within a few years permitting up to 4 PEV modes ie they will become “electric vehicles” with pure electric takeoff, creep, active coasting, parking. 2019 onwards?A possible lithium-ion battery famine in a few years will assist sales of 48V mild hybrids because they use a relatively small lithium-ion battery or none at all (advanced lead acid)Suitable electrically driven consumers are available and affordable.Suitable new forms of regeneration and external harvesting are being developed.Power handling will rise to 20kW. Lead-acid battery will go. 1kWh Li-ion wins. By 2035, pure electric vehicles will kill most hybrids including 48V.

Conclusions


Read the new IDTechEx reports,

“Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031”

“Future Powertrains 2016-2026”

“Electric Vehicle Traction Motors, Belt Driven & Integrated Starter Generators 2016-2026”

For more


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