U.S. cost of post-9/11 wars Department of Defense appropriations

Source: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2001/2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (est.)

Afghanistan Iraq

US$ billions

1

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010

Number of troops

Iraq

Afghanistan

U.S. troops on the ground

in Afghanistan and Iraq

Source: Congressional Research Service.

2

Iran and Gulf air force strength

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Securities Studies.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Iran Iraq Saudi

Arabia

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen Israel

Number of units

Fixed wing combat aircrafts

Armed and attack helicopters

3

Iran and Gulf armor strength

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Securities Studies.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Iran Iraq Saudi

Arabia

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen Israel

Number of units

Main battle tanks

AIFV/Recce/Lt. tanks

APC's

AIFV/Recce/Lt.

tanks not included

4

Iran and Gulf artillery strength

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Securities Studies.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Iran Iraq Saudi

Arabia

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen

Number of units

Mortar

Multiple rocket launcher

Towed tube

Self-propelled tube

5

Iran and Gulf naval strength

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Securities Studies.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Iran Iraq Saudi

Arabia

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen Israel

Number of units

Major Naval Forces

Gulf warships with anti ship missiles

6

Iran and Gulf arms imports 2000 - 2011

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Constant 1990 US$ billions

Iran Iraq

UAE Saudi Arabia

Israel Kuwait

7

Iran and Saudi oil production Saudi Arabia to compensate for sanctions on Iran oil

Source: Bloomberg

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

5/2009 10/2009 3/2010 8/2010 1/2011 6/2011 11/2011 4/2012

Barrels per day millions Barrels per day millions

Iran (right)

Saudi Arabia (left)

Projections as

result of

sanctions announced

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percent of GDP

Egypt’s military expenditure

Source: World Bank.

9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Constant 1990 US$ billions

Egypt’s arms imports

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

10

Foreign Policy magazine survey responses

of 34 Middle East experts

Survey Participants (34): Akbar Ahmed, Christopher Alexander, Jon Alterman, Issandr El Amrani, Anna Badkhen, Isobel Coleman, Mohamed El Dahshan, Robert

Danin, F. Gregory Gause, Stephen Grand, Jonathan Guyer, Shadi Hamid, Michael Wahid Hanna, Ed Husain, Efraim Karsh, Zalmay Khalilzad, Amil Khan, Wadah

Khanfar, Tom Kutsch, Andrew Lebovich, Marc Lynch, Hisham Melhem, Aaron David Miller, Dalia Mogahed, Marwan Muasher, David Pollock, Bruce Rutherford,

Karim Sadjadpour, Robert Satloff, Jonathan Schanzer, David Schenker, Ibrahim Sharqieh, Robert Springborg, Dirk Vandewalle Source: Foreign Policy Magazine.

9

7

6

4

3

2

1

1

Political fragmentation and immaturity

Arab dictators

Islamism/religious fundamentalism

A combination of threats

Economic challenges

The Gulf "counterrevolution"

The United States

Social issues (education, women's rights)

What is the greatest threat to Arab democracy?

11

Foreign Policy magazine survey responses

of 34 Middle East experts

Survey Participants (34): Akbar Ahmed, Christopher Alexander, Jon Alterman, Issandr El Amrani, Anna Badkhen, Isobel Coleman, Mohamed El Dahshan, Robert

Danin, F. Gregory Gause, Stephen Grand, Jonathan Guyer, Shadi Hamid, Michael Wahid Hanna, Ed Husain, Efraim Karsh, Zalmay Khalilzad, Amil Khan, Wadah

Khanfar, Tom Kutsch, Andrew Lebovich, Marc Lynch, Hisham Melhem, Aaron David Miller, Dalia Mogahed, Marwan Muasher, David Pollock, Bruce Rutherford,

Karim Sadjadpour, Robert Satloff, Jonathan Schanzer, David Schenker, Ibrahim Sharqieh, Robert Springborg, Dirk Vandewalle Source: Foreign Policy Magazine.

1.13

2.73

3.07

4.59

4.69

4.72

Tunisia

Egypt

Libya

Bahrain

Yemen

Syria

Which Arab uprising are you most optimistic about? Rank the following from least (6) to most (1) optimistic:

12

Foreign Policy magazine survey responses

of 34 Middle East experts

Survey Participants (34): Akbar Ahmed, Christopher Alexander, Jon Alterman, Issandr El Amrani, Anna Badkhen, Isobel Coleman, Mohamed El Dahshan, Robert

Danin, F. Gregory Gause, Stephen Grand, Jonathan Guyer, Shadi Hamid, Michael Wahid Hanna, Ed Husain, Efraim Karsh, Zalmay Khalilzad, Amil Khan, Wadah

Khanfar, Tom Kutsch, Andrew Lebovich, Marc Lynch, Hisham Melhem, Aaron David Miller, Dalia Mogahed, Marwan Muasher, David Pollock, Bruce Rutherford,

Karim Sadjadpour, Robert Satloff, Jonathan Schanzer, David Schenker, Ibrahim Sharqieh, Robert Springborg, Dirk Vandewalle Source: Foreign Policy Magazine.

22

8

1

1

Syria's Bashar al-Assad

Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh

Iraq's Nouri al-Maliki

Egypt's Mohamed Hussein Tantawi

The next Arab dictator to fall will be...

13

Oil prices in real terms nearly at historic high 1861 to Q1 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Average crude oil price in 2009 dollars, US$ per barrel

Sources: BP Amoco, Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milken Institute.

Note: 1861-1944 U.S. average.1945-1983 Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura.1984 onward Brent dated. 1861-2009 figures calculated by BP. 2010 and 2011

figures calculated by MI staff using data from Bloomberg and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

14

Crude oil price history

$(50)

$(51)

Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Nominal US$ per barrel

15

Shares of world oil consumption

$(50)

$(51)

Source: BP Statistical Review.

Others34%

US28%

Europe24%

Middle East5%

South and

Central America

3%

Japan2%

Rest South

East Asia2%

China1%

India1%

1990

Others28%

US22%

Europe19%

Middle East11% Rest

South East Asia

7%

South and

Central America

5%

China3%

Japan3%

India2%

2010

16

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Number of persons

Injuries

Fatalities

Sinjar, Iraq (Unknown)

Istanbul, Turkey(Al Qaeda)

Baghdad, Iraq(Unknown)

Dhahran, Saudi Arabia (Hizballah)

Terrorism incidents in the Middle East 1991 through 2009

Source: RAND Corp., Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents.

17

Terrorism incidents in Israel 1991 through 2009

Source: RAND Corp., Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Number of persons

Injuries Fatalities

18

Terrorism incidents in Iraq 2000 through 2008

Source: RAND Corp., Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Number of persons

Injuries Fatalities

Sinjar - poor rural area near the Syrian border

19

Syria’s arms imports

Note: Gaps due to data unavailable. Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Constant 1990 US$ billions

20

Source: Business Insider

Iranian nuclear facilities, 2010