3d printing: its economic and technical rational
Post on 19-Oct-2014
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Master's students use ideas from my (Jeff Funk) forthcoming book (Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries) to analyze the technical and economic feasibility of 3D additive printing. Manufacturing parts using additive fabrication techniques can enable on-demand local manufacturing and thus can eliminate complex value chains. See my other slides for details on concepts, methodology, and other new industries..TRANSCRIPT
MT5009
ANALYZING HI-TECHNOLOGY OPPORTUNITIES
Ch K K k ClChew Kuan Kok, Clement (A0076995E)Espiritu Maricris Tolentino (A0076910E)
Le Quang Dung (A0077075Y)
Myo Kyaw Thu (A0013741U)Myo Kyaw Thu (A0013741U)Wong Yong Jin, Melvin (A0076844U)
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2D printing 3D images?
No color you like?
Dented bumper?2
Lets watch a video …
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d i 3 i i Introduction to 3D Printing
Technology Paradigm
Value Propositions Value Propositions
Current 3D Printing Technologies
Cost and Performance Cost and Performance
Comparison of 3D Printing Technologies
Why 3D Printing Will Get Better Why 3D Printing Will Get Better
Potentials for Improvement – Technology Roadmap
Entrepreneurial Opportunities – Opportunities of Applications
Potential New Businesses
3D Printer Market at a Glance
Conclusion
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3D printing is a form of additivemanufacturing in which components
f b i d i ddi i f hiare fabricated in an additive fashionby adding successive layers ofmaterial togethermaterial together
3D Printing3D Printing=Additive ManufacturingAdditive Manufacturing
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Conventional Manufacturing Technology
3D PrintingTechnology
• Mass‐production • Allow customization andon‐demand production
• Require tools to produce parts (hardware driven)
• Directly manufacture from CAD model (software driven)p ( ) ( )
• Subtractive manufacturing • Additive manufacturing
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Fabrication on demand Shorter product development time due to rapid
prototyping
Less reliance on logisticsTimberland prototype
Less reliance on logistics
Mass customisationCost : $1200Time required :1 week
$35Mass customisation Caters to each individual’s wants and needs instead
of mass production and consumption
Time required :1 week90 mins
of mass production and consumption
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Opens up new ibili i i d ipossibilities in design
Complex geometries Complex geometries
Eliminate constraints of conventionalconventional manufacturing processes
Customised geometry and Customised geometry and parts
Avoids assembly issues Avoids assembly issues
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ff d h l Cost‐efficient in producing parts with complex geometries and reduces waste
€770
€380
Material Subtracted by Machining to Produce Feature/Part
10Source: Dr Hopkinson, Loughborough UniversityMaterial Added by 3D Printing to Produce Feature/Part
Material Subtracted by Machining to Produce Feature/Part
Lowers barriers to entry for new businessesf
otal cost o
frodu
ction
Cost of conventionally manufactured parts
To p
ng p
Cost of part produced byost o
f too
lin
Cost of part produced by 3D Printing
Break‐even Production
Co
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Source: Terry Wohler’s Report 2006
Illustration showing the total cost of production usingconventional manufacturing and additive fabrication
Break even volume
Production volume
Promotes Innovation
Communicate design ideas better through physical modelsmodels
Allows user‐centered i ti t t k linnovation to take place‐ Democratizing Innovation
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Product Company Improvements
ICON Aircraft + Gained two to three weeks on the schedule+ Saved $2 000+ Saved $2,000 per part for tooling
Autodesk University Method Cost Estimate Time Estimate Machining $900,00 9 monthsFDM (3D Printing) $25,000 1.5 months( g)Savings $875,000
(97%) 7.5 months (83%)
Akaishi (Shizuoka, Japan) Method Cost Estimate Time Estimate Traditional Prototyping
JPY 37,500 10 days
FDM Prototyping JPY 10,000 1 day(3D Printing) Savings $27,500
(73%) 9 days (90%)
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Stereolithography (SLA)
Process using photosensitivephotosensitive resins cured by a laser that traces the parts cross sectional geometry layer by layer.
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Selective Laser Sintering (SLS)
Process using a CO2 laser to sinter orlaser to sinter or fuse a powder material. The laser traces the parts cross sectional geometry layer by layer.
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Improvement in Components (SLA/SLS)
Laser system› Improvement in speed of
curing/fusing process.curing/fusing process.› Higher intensity of the laser.› Smaller laser beam spot size.› D li i t f l› Decline in cost of laser
technology.
Scanning system› Improvement in optical scanning
system (Digital Mirror System).› Improvement in path scanning p p g
algorithm.
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Three‐Dimensional Printing (3DP)
Introduction: Ink‐jet based process that prints
the parts cross sectional geometry on layers of powder spread on top of each other.
Improvement in components: Inkjet print heads
› Improvement in the droplet› Improvement in the droplet formation chamber.
› Multiple nozzles to enable multi‐material deposition.p
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Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM)
Introduction: Process using molten plastics or g p
wax extruded by a nozzle that traces the parts cross sectional geometry layer by layer. g y y y y
Improvement in components: Extrusion nozzle:
› Improvement in size of the tip› Improvement in feed rate of
material
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Source: Dr Hopkinson, Loughborough University
Illustration showing the break-even cost analysis of a small but complicated part
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3
0
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SLA SLS FDM 3DP
Best to produce fine feature details like hearing aid
d j l
Best for making small lots of
complex, durable, hard‐to‐
Best for direct manufacture of
structural components; Direct
Best for functional testing, Rapid
tooling, Prototyping, high
and jewelrymanufacture parts
p ;metal coasting
yp g, gheat applications
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Laser system Laser system Scanning system Print head Print head Extrusion nozzle Materials: Emergence of more types of material Materials: Emergence of more types of material which can be used. Application of Nanotechnology.gy
3D CAD software: Improvement in speed, accuracy and user interface.
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Technology improvements lead to cost reduction Technology improvements lead to cost reductionof components and material.
Open source community: Shared knowledge and Open source community: Shared knowledge andexperiences (e.g. RepRap printers).
As 3D Printing is getting better, demand for 3Dg g gprinting application increases significantly.“Increase in demand will lead to reductions in
t d i t i f ”cost and improvements in performance” ‐Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation.
High end vs Low end High‐end vs. Low‐end.
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Opportunities of Applications
Potential New Businesses
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“Design & Use” instead of “Buy & Use” 25
Artificial boneDental solutionProsthetics
Limb
P i ti g B d Pa tReplicate human anatomy easily
Printing Body Parts
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1Kg = $3000 Fuel/ yr
COST SAVINGCOST SAVING
A380 landing-gear section
Titanium extraction
Save Energy 25X*
Source: www.airbus.com
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Wind Tunnel Testing
Enhance Innovation & Creativity28
CreationImagination 29DIY
US Military has projects to make spare parts for Mili i f i b l iMilitary equipments for in‐battle repairs
Time saved
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Artist creates a design but not the actual piece
Some form of Arts will be democratized if not all
M Museum, Belgium
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Printing shops (Fab Lab)
I want an I want an iPad cover like yours, but I like it
Printer Leasing
3D‐Printing solutions for self‐service customer kiosks
but I like it thicker, and
pink
service customer kiosks
On‐line printing services
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Self‐help books
3D software learning institutes
Web‐based trainings
Website to showcase the model files (like flickr)model files (like flickr)
Website where we can buy and sell 3D‐model files (like getty images, iTunes)
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Computers More powerful computers Higher resolution graphics Faster data transferring techniques [e.g USB3.0, HDMI, etc… ??]
3 f 3D CAD software 3D printer‐centric solid modeling software Easy to use interface d l f ( ) Incorporated analysis software (e.g FEA, etc…)
Lasers I t i l d t “ ” th t i l i k Improvement in lasers used to “cure” the materials quicker
Material I d d t i l t t th d f 3D i t Improved and new materials to cater the needs of 3D printers
(e.g Nano‐materials for better surface finish and strength)
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3D Printer Manufacturers
3D Printer Users
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Figure 1: Growth of 3D-Printing industry Figure 2: Countries that have adopted the 3D-printing technology
*in millions of dollars.2009 and 2010 are forecast
products
services
*cumulative systems installed by country through the end of 2008
Source: Terry Wohler Report 2010
p oducts
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Price› $ 10,000 ‐ $500,000 Range› Low end machines with limited applicable materials › Volume Vs Price (chicken and egg problem)
Current Design Methodologies› Heavily invested in existing technologies and tools› Most design software are developed based on existing manufacturing
h l itechnologies› Design Engineers / Designers are so used to with the existing manufacturing
technologies / constraints.› Need to Un‐learn and Re‐Learn› Need to Un learn and Re Learn
Still lack of common Industrial Standards for 3D printing technologiestechnologies› Creates less confident on the technology by potential users
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What’s next for 3D‐printers? Success of the 3D printers lies on:› Further improvements in supporting technologies and
components› Reduction in cost of 3D printers and consumables
C lid ti d ti t d d› Consolidation and creating standards› Innovative and feasible business models
Key to manufacturing will change from Economies y g gof Scale to Economies of Knowledge
Mass production to mass customized products Greener production/consumption Good ideas can be shared even more rapidly with
3D i ti3D printing Barriers to entry for new businesses will be lower
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Is 3D printing going to disrupt
the existing
What would we need f t
gtechnologies
manufacturers for if there is machine that can print a can print a
machine
ill b dWhat will
Will everybody own 3D printers
one day
happen to the supply chain of
the fmanufacturing
industry
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… closing video.
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1. ADVANCES IN RAPID PROTOTYPING D18E © 2008 Frost & Sullivan2. 3D Printer Benchmark: North American Edition, T. A. Grimm & Associates, Inc., June 20103. World Rapid Prototyping Equipment Markets N191‐30, © 2007 Frost & Sullivan4. EMERGING INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY‐‐ RAPID PROTOTYPING D273© 2004 Frost & Sullivan5. FACTORY@HOMETHE EMERGING ECONOMY OF PERSONAL MANUFACTURING, OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONSA (HOD
LIPSON, Cornell University MELBA KURMAN, Triple Helix innovation), report commissioned by the US Office of Science and Technology Policy, December 2010
6. The Wholer Report 2003, Terry Wholer Copyright 20037. The Wholer Report 2006, Terry Wholer Copyright 20067. The Wholer Report 2006, Terry Wholer Copyright 20068. The Wholer Report 2010, Terry Wholer Copyright 20109. Roadmap for Additive Manufacturing, Identifying the Future of Freeform Processing, The University of Texas at Austin Laboratory
for Freeform Fabrication Advanced Manufacturing Center, Copyright 200910. Worldwide Trends in Additive Manufacturing, Terry Wohlers, RapidTech 2009: US-TURKEY Workshop on Rapid Technologies
“Th i t i d t i l d i b th d l t f th di i l i ti t h l f t h i l ti ”11. “The impact on industrial design by the development of three‐dimensional printing technology from a technical perspective”, Xing Liu, Xiaojiang Zhou, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Copyright 2010
12. Fused Deposition Modeling http://www.time‐compression.com/articles/html/fused_deposition.html
13. 3D printing technique applied to rapid casting by Elena Bassoli and Andrea Gatto Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy
14. Direct Digital Manufacturing: Advantages & Consideration By Scott Crump, CEO, Stratasys, Inc.15. Three Dimensional Printing by Professor Emanuel Sachs, Mechanical Engineering Department , MIT16. Additive Manufacturing for mass customization by Phil Reeves, Chris Tuck, Richard Hague , Additive Manufacturing Research
Group Wolfson School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering Loughborough University17. Fab@home. http://www.fabathome.org@ p // g
18. Reprap. http://www.reprap.org
19. Objet Technologies. http://www.objet.com
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