38509625 the elusive canadian housing bubble fall 2010 musings
TRANSCRIPT
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The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble
Fall 2010 Musings: Now and Then
THREE BEARS RESEARCH
SEPTEMBER 2010
Alexandre Pestov
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BRIEFING
Growing uncertainty about the health of the Canadian housingmarket has finally managed to find its way to the Main Street.Rising public interest has led to mainstream media focus on theCanadian housing sector. In recent weeks, a number of think-tanks and pundits have added piles of paper and glib sound bites
to the national discussion of potentially unstable housing pricesand deteriorating personal finances. Various articles on housingcautiously evolved from shy appearances as page 16 stories inspecialized business periodicals to dominate front pages ofalmost all mainstream publication short of Canadian tabloidpublications.
Topics of high public interest always invoke heated debatesamong industry professionals, investors and academics. This isespecially true with regards to residential real-estate. The latestpublished discussions of the Canadian housing market are noexception: Within a month-span from July to August of 2010several new and splashy reports surfaced to either prove orrefute the existence of the Canadian housing bubble.
One of these recent reports deserves special attention. Thispaper by Jim MacGee of C.D. Howe Institute titled Not Here?Housing Market Policy and the Risk of a Housing Bust" assesses thelikelihood of a US-style housing market crash in Canada. Thisreport concludes that a US-style collapse of the housing marketis unlikely in Canada due to the structural differences in keyareas that were instrumental to the market implosion in the US.According to Jim:
Canadian housing policies, which avoided the sharp decline in
underwriting standards seen in the US, worked well in
reducing the possibility of a housing bust in Canada during
2008-2009, and continue to mitigate the risk of a massive
wave of defaults in the future.
Jims report is sound, well-presented and rests on a factual
framework. While the report itself is well-reasoned, we suggest
it should be discussed on the basis of significant
misinterpretations, inaccurate paraphrasing, erroneous
conclusions and the complacency it spawns. Shortly after the
reports release, Internet portals and mainstream print media
featured prominent headlines announcing a new study refutes the
notion Canada is on the verge of a housing bubble and no housingbubble in Canada, a new report finds.
Jims report bears special meaning in the current context, as it
accurately captures the opinion many Canadians have developed
about the Canadian housing market: The tsunami of foreclosures
in the US was largely driven by senseless sub-prime lending,
which simply never existed in Canada. Thus, the US-style
collapse is unlikely to happen here.
In This Edition
Briefing 1
1 Prices 4
1.1 Nominal Home Prices 41.2 Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices 5
1.3 New Home Prices 6
2 Supply and Demand 72.1 Immigration and Natural Growth 7
2.2 Construction 7
2.3 Construction to Population Ratios 8
2.4 Homeownership Rates 9
3 Employment and Income 103.1 Unemployment 10
3.2 Income 10
4 Fundamentals 124.1 Price-to-Income 12
4.2 Price-to-Rent 124.3 Accommodation Ratio 13
4.4 Affordability 13
5 Debt and Credit 145.1 Personal Debt 14
5.2 Consumer Credit 15
Debt Servicing 166.1 Interest Rates 16
6.2 Mortgage Carrying Cost 16
6.3 Insolvency 17
6.4 Mortgages in Arrears 17
7 Forecast 18
Data Sources 21
Acknowledgements 22
The conclusion that many erroneously infer from such analysis
including Jims report, is that no US-style problem means no
problem at all. The fallacy of such inference is quite apparent, as
it misses a crucial point: Canada doesnt need a US-style
problem to have a problem. A Canadian-style issue will do just
fine.
This paper is written as to address the paraphrasing ofhousing
market in Canada is not identical to that of the US" as no housing
bubble in Canada. Instead of dissecting the US housing marketcrash for answers, this report examines our current housing
bubble in Canada against the backdrop of the 1985-1989 housing
bubble in Canada. In fact, our specific Canadian situation wil
most likely be the force behind housing markets unwinding.
In modern times, Canada experienced several regional housing
boom-and-bust cycles (Exhibit 1.2.1). The nation-wide decline in
home prices on a scale comparable to a bursting bubble is
something that this country hasnt witness since recording
began. On the national level, the period of 1985 to 1989 bears
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the closest resemblance to a housing bubble, and the period of
1990 to 2000 to a crash. However, unlike other crashes where
nominal prices plunged quickly to restore the upset balance with
underlying fundamentals, the post 1985-1989 period experienced
a gradual decline in real prices stretched over 10 years. This,
however, should not be mistaken for anything less than a break
down in slow-motion. Rather than the image of a bursting
balloon, consider the concept of a slow leak. It may take a longtime for all the hot air to escape, but the net result, over time, is
just as limp and lifeless.
Using the 1985-1989 period as a benchmark for measuring
housing bubbles, this report compares key housing market
metrics exhibited during the run-up in home prices of the 1985-
1989 (then) and 2000-2010 (now).
Bright Spots
Comparing the 1985-1989 housing bubble to the 2000-2010
period, employment and income stand out as the bright spots:
- During the 2000-2010 period unemployment remainedbelow the levels seen in 1985-1989 (Exhibit 3.1.1). This
should be taken with a caveat: The 2000-2010 period
ended with higher unemployment than the 1985-1985
did.
- Real income of typical families and unattachedindividuals is at all-time high (Exhibit 3.2.1 and 3.2.2).
Similarities
The following similarities in underlying conditions can be
observed during the 1985-1989 and 2000-2010 housing price
run-ups:
- Demand conditions during the 2000-2010 period wereat par with 1984-1985 (Exhibit 2.1.1).
- On the supply side, dwelling completions during 2000-2010 stayed above its long-term average and at par with
the numbers observed during the 1984-1989 bubble.
However, the period of above-average construction
between 2000 and 2010 lasted longer than that of 1984-
1989 (Exhibit 2.2.1).
- Completion of dwellings as proportion to totalpopulation and population changes (Exhibit 2.3.1) is in-
line with its long-term average.
Points of Concern
Despite the stronger supporting factors, including healthier
economy and modestly brighter income and employment
picture, the 2000-2010 run-up in prices does not look like it has
any steam left to continue further. Superior economic
performance only partially explains the observed appreciation of
home prices during this period. In fact, the bulk of the gains
were driven by an unprecedented expansion of consumer credit. The
following factors suggest that this debt-driven growth is unlikelyto continue:
- The number of residential units in pipeline (dwellingscurrently under constructions) during 2000-2010
approached the record-highs of the late 1970s, when
for every 9 people added to the Canadian population
each year 10 residential units were built. The number of
units under construction now is substantially above the
long-term average, and higher than it was at the peak o
the 1984-1989 bubble, signalling excessive supply lasting
into foreseeable future (Exhibit 2.2.1).
- The ratio of building under construction to totapopulation and population changes (Exhibit 2.3.2) is
above the long-term average and higher than the
number seen at the peak of 1984-1989 bubble.
- Price-to-Income measurement Canada-wide and in almajor markets remains 30-40 percent higher than the
long-term trend (Exhibit 4.1.1), which causes above-
average un-affordability (Exhibit 4.4.1), despite the rising
real income and historically-low interest rates (Exhibit
6.1.1).
- Price-to-Rent ratio stands at all-time high levels, whichis 60-90 percent above the long-term average (Exhibit
4.2.1).
- Accommodation ratio in most major markets (exceptVancouver) remains historically low, suggesting major
imbalances and relative attractiveness of renting vs
owning (Exhibit 4.3.1).
- Personal debt, including mortgage liabilities, isapproximately 100 percent above its long-term average
(Exhibit 5.1.1), which translates into above-averagemortgage carrying costs (Exhibit 6.2.1) despite the
historically-low interest rates (Exhibit 6.1.1).
- Debt as a percentage of net-worth and total assetselevated to unprecedented levels (Exhibit 5.1.3).
- Household credit adjusted for population and inflationchanges has expanded by approximately 250 percent
since 1990 to reach record-high levels (Exhibit 5.2.1).
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- Between 2000 and 2008 mortgage lending expanded 3times faster than income growth (117 percent vs. 38
percent).
- Homeownership rates approached 70 percent, whichsignificantly above the long-term average and the peak
seen during the 1985-1989 bubble. The present home
ownership rates are at par with those at the US bubblepeak (Exhibit 2.4.1).
The 2000-2010 rally should not be mistaken for an organic price
appreciation warranted by the supply/demand relationship. The
rally has been a debt-driven price appreciation. Without further
credit expansion this rally cannot go on, and all signs suggest the
excessive leveraging is coming to an end. Under the current
historically low rates, consumers capacity for debt service is
curtailing noticeably (Exhibit 6.2.1). Should interest rates go up,
as they eventually must, consumers will face difficult choices:
Significantly reduce spending, de-leverage or default. In
aggregate, none of these alternatives bode well for the housingmarket and the Canadian economy in whole.
Presently, there is no sign of an impending price collapse. As
rightfully pointed by Jim MacGee and other observers, Canada
doesnt have the combination of factors that triggered a wave of
defaults and foreclosures seen in the US in the ongoing financial
crisis. As comforting as it may be, this is no reason for
complacency. The era of consumer credit expansion and
leveraging is coming to a close. The Canadian government is left
with a limited set of tools to support further home price
appreciation without imparting significant US-style risk to the
Canadian economy. This, and the uniform decoupling of home
prices from fundamentals across the nation, suggests that home
prices will decline, although as not as violently as the home
prices in the US did, and then stagnate until fundamentals catch
up, similar to the 1990-2000 period (Exhibit 1.2.1). The uniformprices appreciation around the country left no region that can
offset declines in other parts of the country, as it was the case in
the late 80s and mid 90s, and the odds of nation-wide
correction are high.
The upcoming price stagnation should be of the most concern
for those whose well-being directly correlates with appreciating
home prices. Property developers, real-estate agents, buy-and
flip investors and other market participants should take a note
and make necessary adjustments. The issue has a broader impact
than merely real-estate related sectors. Gluskin Sheffs research
found that every basis point of the Canadian economic recovery
was due to the boom in the housing sector. In the absence of
export resurgence, aside from commodities, it becomes quite
apparent that Canada doesnt need a US-style collapse for the
hangover from the elusive Canadian housing bubble to be painful
Thank you for reading.
Please direct all inquiries regarding this report [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
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1 PRICES
1.1 Nominal Home Prices
Exhibit 1.1.1: Average Home PriceCanada
Source: CREA;
Then 99 percent home priceappreciation over 4.5years
Now 121 percent price increaseover 10 years
Exhibit 1.1.2: Home PricesMajor Markets
Source: CREA;
Then Price appreciation:Calgary38 percentMontreal71 percentToronto160 percentVancouver101 percentover 4.5 years
Now Price appreciation:Calgary138 percentMontreal100 percentToronto77 percentVancouver117 percentover 10 years
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Canada
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
Then Now
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1.2 Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices
Exhibit 1.2.1: Average Home PriceCanada (constant dollars)
Source: CREA; Statistics Canada;
Then 67 percent appreciationover 4.5 years
Now 76 percent rise over 10years
Exhibit 1.2.2: Home PricesMajor Markets (constant dollars)
Source: CREA; Statistics Canada;
Then Real price appreciation:Calgary16 percentMontreal44 percentToronto119 percentVancouver69 percentover 5 years
Now Real price appreciation:Calgary98 percentMontreal67 percentToronto48 percentVancouver81 percentover the 10-year period
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
Canada
Then Now
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
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1.3 New Home Prices
Exhibit 1.3.1: New Home Prices (constant dollars)
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then New home price increase:Canada59 percentCalgary40 percent
Montreal44 percentToronto117 percentVancouver28 percentover 4.5 years
Now New home price increase:Canada54 percentCalgary106 percentMontreal63 percentToronto40 percentVancouver31 percentover 10 years
50
100
150
200
250
300
Index
Canada Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
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2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND
2.1 Immigration and Natural Growth
Exhibit 2.1.1: Canada Population Growth
Source: Immigration Canada;
Then Canadian populationadded on average 300,400residents each year
Now Canadian populationincreased by 314,000residents annually
2.2 Construction
Exhibit 2.2.1: Dwelling Starts, Completions and Under Construction
Source: CMHC;
Then Nation-wide, Canadaaveraged:210,000 dwelling starts195,000 completions115,00 dwelling underconstruction
Now Nation-wide, Canadaaveraged:201,000 dwelling starts192,000 completions
149,00 dwelling underconstruction
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Natural Growth Immigration Total
Then Now
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Units
Dwelling Starts Dweling Completion Dwellings Under Construction
Then Now
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2.3 Construction to Population Ratios
Exhibit 2.3.1: Dwelling Completions to Population and Change in Population Ratios
Source: CMHC; Immigration Canada;
Then Average of dwellingcompletions to populationratio was 0.0073, while
dwelling completions tochanges in populationration averaged 0.65
Now Average of dwellingcompletions to populationratio was 0.0060, whiledwelling completions tochanges in populationration averaged 0.60
Exhibit 2.3.2: Dwelling Under Construction to Population and Change in Population Ratios
Source: CMHC; Immigration Canada;
Then Dwellings underconstruction averaged0.38 per every personadded to the Canadianpopulation. The averageratio of dwellings underconstruction to populationremained at 0.0043.
Now Dwellings underconstruction averaged0.46 per every personadded to the Canadian
population. The averageratio of dwellings underconstruction to populationremained at 0.0046.
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Dwelling Completion to Population Changes (left scale)
Dwelling Completion to Population (right scale)
Then Now
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Dwellings Under Construction to Population Changes (left scale)
Dwellings Under Construction to Population (right scale)
Then Now
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2.4 Homeownership Rates
Exhibit 2.4.1: Homeownership Rates for All Households (1971 to 2006)
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then Homeownership ratereached 62.4 percent
Now Homeownership ratereached 68.4 percent
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Natural Growth
Then Now
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3 EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME
3.1 Unemployment
Exhibit 3.1.1: Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then Unemployment rateaveraged 8.8 percent,reaching 7.5 percent at theend of the bubble period.
Now Unemployment rateaveraged 7.1 percent,reaching 8.1 percent at theend of the bubble period.
3.2 Income
Exhibit 3.2.1: Family Income (constant dollars)
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then Nation-wide, income inconstant dollars averaged$59,720 for a statisticalfamily, peaking at $61,500in 1989.
Now Nation-wide, income inconstant dollars averaged$69,000 for a statisticalfamily, peaking at $74,600in 2008.
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
CAN AB QC ON BC
Then Now
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
Canada Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
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Exhibit 3.2.2: Income of Unattached Individuals (constant dollars)
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then Real income of unattachedindividuals averaged$25,920, peaking at$26,700 1989.
Now Real income of unattached
individuals averaged$28,720, peaking at$31,000 in 2010.
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Canada Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
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4 FUNDAMENTALS
4.1 Price-to-Income
Exhibit 4.1.1: Price-to-Income Ratio
Source: CREA; Statistics Canada;
Then Price-to-Income ratiosrose sharply during the1985-1989 period,reaching:Canada3.8Calgary2.9Montreal3.8Toronto5Vancouver5.4
Now Price-to-Income ratiosrose sharply during the2000-2010 period,
reaching:Canada4.5Calgary4.2Montreal3.6Toronto4.9Vancouver7.7
4.2 Price-to-Rent
Exhibit 4.2.1: Price-to-Rent Ratio
Source: CREA; Statistics Canada;
Then During the 1985-1989period, Price-to-Rentratios peaked at:Canada120Calgary108Montreal103Toronto210Vancouver176
Now During the 2000-2010period, Price-to-Rent
ratios peaked at:Canada196Calgary221Montreal145Toronto247Vancouver373
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
MajorMarkets
Canada
Canada Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
M
ajorMarkets
Canada
Canada Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
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4.3 Accommodation Ratio
Exhibit 4.3.1: Accommodation Ratio
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then Average0.96Minimum0.92 reachedin 1989
Now Average0.93Minimum0.87 reachedin 2010
4.4 Affordability
Exhibit 4.4.1: Housing Affordability in Key Metro Markets (May 2010)
Calgary Montreal
Toronto Vancouver
Source: Royal Bank of Canada, May 2010;
ThenPeak:
Calgarylow 40sMontreallow 40sTorontomid 60sVancouverlow 50s
Average:Calgaryhigh 30sMontrealhigh 30sTorontohigh 50sVancouverhigh 40s
Now Peak:Calgarylow 50s
Montrealmid 40sTorontomid 50sVancouverlow 80s
Average:Calgarylow 40sMontrealhigh 30sTorontomid 50sVancouverhigh 60s
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
MajorMarkets
Canada
Canada Calgary Montreal Toronto Vancouver
Then Now
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5 DEBT AND CREDIT
5.1 Personal Debt
Exhibit 5.1.1: Personal Debt, GDP, Personal Disposable Income (PDI), Consumer Credit (CC) and Mortgage Liabilities (ML)
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then Peaked at the bubbleperiods end:Debt to GDP62%Debt to PDI91%CC and ML to PDI79%
Now Peaked at the bubbleperiods end:Debt to GDP94%Debt to PDI149%CC and ML to PDI136%
Exhibit 5.1.2: Owners Equity as a Percentage ofReal Estate
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then67.1% at the end of 1989
Now 67.8% in 2010
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
Debt to GDP Debt to PDI CC and ML to PDI
Then Now
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
Owner's Equity as a Percentage of Real Estate
Then Now
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Exhibit 5.1.3: Debt, Tangible Assets (TA), Net Worth (NW), Consumer Credit (CC) and Mortgage Liabilities (ML)
Source: Statistics Canada;
Then Debt to TA18.4%Debt to NW22.5%CC and ML to NW19.4
The trend: reduction in allthree ratios
Now Debt to TA19.6%Debt to NW24.4%CC and ML to NW22.2
The trend: uniform rise in three ratios
5.2 Consumer Credit
Exhibit 5.2.1: Consumer Credit Expansion (adjusted for inflation and population changes)
Source: Statistics Canada;
Now An increase of 226 to 273
percent between 1990 and2010.
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
Debt to TA Debt to NW CC and ML to NW
Then Now
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Total Household Credit Residential Mortgage Credit Consumer Credit
Then Now
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DEBT SERVICING
6.1 Interest Rates
Exhibit 6.1.1: Canadian Bank Rate and 5-year Fixed Mortgage Rate (1975 to 2010)
Source: Bank of Canada;
Then Average:Bank Rate10.0%5-year Mortgage11.8%Periods End:Bank Rate12.4%5-year Mortgage12.2%
Future Rates - falling
Now Average:Bank Rate3.0%5-year Mortgage6.3%Periods End:
Bank Rate1.0%5-year Mortgage5.8%
Future Rates - rising
6.2 Mortgage Carrying Cost
Exhibit 6.2.1: Mortgage Carrying Costs in Key Metro Markets (May 2010)
Calgary Montreal
Toronto Vancouver
Source: Royal Bank of Canada, May 2010;
Then Peak:Calgarymid 30s
Montrealmid 30sTorontolow 60sVancouverhigh 40s
Average:Calgarylow 30sMontreallow 30sTorontohigh 40sVancouverlow 40s
Now Peak:Calgarylow 40sMontrealmid 30s
Torontohigh 40sVancouvermid 70s
Average:Calgarymid 40sMontreallow 30sTorontolow 40sVancouverlow 60s
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Bank Rate 5-year Posted Fixed Rate
Then Now
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7 FORECAST
The forecasts provided in this section of the report use an in-house real-estate pricing model, which is a function of interest rates
incomes, rents and other secondary factors. The model is market-specific and factors in historical price uniqueness of each market.
Exhibit 7.1: Canada (price gap of 28.6 percent)
Source: Three Bears Research;
Exhibit 7.2: Calgary (price gap of 35.0 percent)
Source: Three Bears Research;
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Canada - Actual Prices Canada - Forecast
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Calgary - Actual Prices Calgary - Forecast
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Exhibit 7.3: Montreal (price gap of 18.3 percent)
Source: Three Bears Research;
Exhibit 7.4: Toronto (price gap of 25.6 percent)
Source: Three Bears Research;
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Montreal - Actual Prices Montreal - Forecast
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Toronto - Actual Prices Toronto - Forecast
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Exhibit 7.5: Vancouver (price gap of 45.4 percent)
Source: Three Bears Research;
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Vancouver - Actual Prices Vancouver - Forecast
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Alexandre Pestov Three Bears Research September 2010
The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble Fall 2010 Musings: Now and Then Page 21 of 22
DATA SOURCES
Bank of Canada Statisticshttp://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/index.html
Citizenship and Immigration Canadahttp://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2008/permanent/10.asp
CREAhttp://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/statistics.htm#
GMREBGreater Montreal Real Estate Boardhttp://www.cigm.qc.ca/indexen.aspx
Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canadahttp://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br01819.html
Statistics Canadahttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/
Royal Bank of Canada - RBC
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/index.htmlhttp://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/index.htmlhttp://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2008/permanent/10.asphttp://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2008/permanent/10.asphttp://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/statistics.htmhttp://www.cigm.qc.ca/indexen.aspxhttp://www.cigm.qc.ca/indexen.aspxhttp://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br01819.htmlhttp://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br01819.htmlhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/http://www.statcan.gc.ca/http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdfhttp://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdfhttp://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdfhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br01819.htmlhttp://www.cigm.qc.ca/indexen.aspxhttp://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/statistics.htmhttp://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2008/permanent/10.asphttp://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/index.html -
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