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Connecting plug-in vehicles to green electricity through consumer demand
Presented: December 10, 2013
Dr. Jonn Axsen, Simon Fraser University
Funded by: BMW of North America, LLCNatural Resources Canada
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of CanadaEnergy and Materials
Research Group
EMRG
53 kWh24 kWh16 kWh
HUGE VARIETY AMONG PLUG-IN VEHICLES (PEV)
4 kWh
~117 km electric range
Nissan Leaf
~56 km ~500 km gasoline
~300km electric range
Tesla Roadster
Toyota Prius PHV
Chevy Volt
20 km ~800 km gasoline
Plug-inHybrid(PHEV)
PureElectric(EV)
Comparing Battery Sizes:
3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Electricity Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh)
DrivingCarbonIntensity
(gCO2/
mile)
EV
PHEV-40
PHEV-20
PEV emissions greatly depend on the source of electricity
U.S. Average
CoalNatural Gas
Source: Axsen et al. (2011), Energy Policy
Regular vehicles
Hybrid
CanadaToday
Questions I will explore today:
1. Do PEV buyers want “green electricity”?2. Will PEV buyers give charging control to their electric
utility?3. What are consumer motives?
Study 1: Green electricity with your PEV?
(US car buyers, n=1502)
Research Method
20-minute web-based survey US new vehicle buyers, n = 1502 3 segments: buyers of conventional, hybrids and PEVs
Survey layout:1. Game 1: PEV design2. Game 2: Green-electricity design3. Game 3: “Combined” design (PEV and Green-E)4. Motivation assessment
Game 1: PEV design gamesRespondents first select their next anticipated vehicle by type (CV or HEV) and body size (compact, sedan, mid-sized or full SUV/truck).
Incremental price, compared to base vehicle.
HEV: $780 to $1740
PHEV: $2090 to $7540
EVs: $2940 to $25,380
Example Screenshot from Survey
CV HEV PHEV EV
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Game 1: Vehicle DesignsHybrid and PHEVs are most popular.
Hybrid (HEV)
Conventionalvehicle
Plug-inhybrid
Electricvehicle40 miles
20 miles10 miles
200 miles150
125100 miles
% ofSample
segment
Selected vehicle design
Game 2: Green Electricity design games
1) No green program: or current “green” program if already enrolled. 2) Monthly Green Program: ¢1.5 to 3/kWh 3) 2-Year Green Lease: ¢1.5 to 3 /kWh 4) Install residential solar: $20 to $102/month
Example Screenshot from Survey
Game 2: Green Electricity DesignsLots of interest in monthly programs and home solar
% ofSample
Segment
Electricity program selected
None Current Program
Monthly Green
Program
2-year Green Lease
Install rooftop solar
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
900 kWh
20%
180 kWh
540 kWh
100% of home usage
60%
20%
60%100%
Game 3: Combining vehicle and electricity options
Example Screenshot from Survey
Game 3: Combining vehicle and electricity games
Hybrid buyers
Complements: The combination increases PEV demand by 23%
Game 1: PEV Game 3: Mixed0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EV
PHEV
HEV
CV
Study 2: Acceptance of utility controlled charging
(Canada car buyers, n=1754)
14
Pairing renewables & PEVs
Many sources of renewables are intermittent so the timing of electricity supply may not match the timing of electricity demand.
12am 12pm 11pm
Green Electricity Supply
PEVElectricity Demand (load)
15
Pairing renewables & PEVs
Many sources of renewables are intermittent so the timing of electricity supply may not match the timing of electricity demand.
12am 12pm 11pm
Green Electricity Supply
PEVElectricity Demand (load)
16
Utility controlled charging (UCC)—Any situation where the electric utility controls Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) charging in order to better utilize intermittent renewable electricity sources.
17
The SampleTotal completes: 1754
The overall sample is generally representative of new car buyers:
Older, higher income, more highly educated, and more likely to own their own home
18
Who are the “early mainstream?”
Conventional Hybrid PHEV EV0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Perc
enta
ge o
f Sam
ple
32km
64km Electric Range
16km
240km Electric range
200km 160km 120km
80km
36% of total sample (n=530)
n=1469
36% = potential “early mainstream”
PEV buyers
Further analysis uses only these respondents
19
Making Tradeoffs – Stated Preferences
Status Quo
UCC alternative 1
UCC alternative 2
20
Latent-class discrete choice model:3 different consumer perspectives
Class #1: Pro-Green (21% of sample)– Generally supports utility-controlled charging– Positive value for renewables– Strong pro-environmental values/attitudes– Younger, more educated
Class #2: Pro-Savings (41% of sample)– Also supports utility-controlled charging– Highly sensitive to savings on electrical bill– Strong pro-environmental values/attitudes
Class #3: Anti-controlled charging (38% of sample)– Negative perception of UCC– Older, less educated
Pro-Green (21%)
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
Pro-Green (21%)
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
Pro-Green (21%)
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
Pro-Green (21%)
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%21
Baseline(No renewables,no savings)
20% bill savings
100% renewable
20% savings+
100% renewable
% of PEV market accepting UCC
Comparing charging programs based on bill savings vs. renewable uptake
22
Summary points
Lack of awareness: most consumers do not presently think about the source of electricity for PEVs.
Green electricity can boost demand for PEVs: …when green-electricity option is presented.
“Utility controlled charging” acceptable to half of potential PEV buyers: support varies by green vs. financial motivation (which links to consumer values and lifestyle)
Variety of consumer motives: environmental values, financial savings, new technology, trust and privacy
Appendices
24
Guaranteed minimum charge (GMC)
20km
200km – 100% or Full Charge
180 km Guaranteed Minimum Charge
The absolute minimal level of charge that you would wake up to on any given morning.
This area may have charge but it may not. This will depend on the utility.
The larger the consumer allows this area to be the more useful their vehicle can be to the
utility.
180km – 90% Charge 20km – 10% of Charge
Preferences for electricity source when charging PEVs
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Run-of-river
Large Hydro
Natural Gas
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of Samplen=530 25
How do you feel about using the following energy sources to produce electricity for electric vehicles?
26
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%Percentage of Sample
How do they feel about UCC?
Will take control away from me in a way that I would not like
Is an invasion of my privacy
Neg
ative
Sta
tem
ent
Will help the environment
Should be supported by the government
Should be required for all PEV owners
Posi
tive
Stat
emen
t
n=530
To what extent do you agree with the following statements about Utility Controlled Charging? Utility controlled charging…
Binary logistic regression helped to explain respondent interest in “combined” product.
Controlling for numerous variables, Respondents were more likely to combine a PEV and Green-electricity design in Game 3 if they…
…are under 60 years of age.**…live in a detached home.*…recently bought an HEV or PEV.**…engaged in technology-oriented lifestyle.**…had stronger pro-environmental attitude (NEP scale).**
* Significant at 95% confidence level (p < 0.05)** Significant at 99% confidence level (p < 0.01)
Method Overview: The web-based survey instrument required 20-25 minutes to complete. The flow of survey questions was customized based on respondent characteristics, including up to three design games: (the survey also included many demographic and attitudinal questions not depicted here.)
Has residential solar panels?
Segment: CVB, HEVB, PEVB? Segment: CVB, HEVB, PEVB?
YesNo
Select “base” vehicle for design games Select “base” vehicle for design games
Potential to upgrade to:HEV, PHEV or EV
CV as basePotential to upgrade to:PHEV or EV
HEV as base
Assess potential to install home solar
Can have solar No solar potentialPotential upgrades to:Green program/lease or solar
Potential upgrades to:Green program/lease
Options to combine vehicle and electricity program: Vehicles: (CV), HEV, PHEV or EV Electricity: current, green program, lease, (solar)
Potential to upgrade to:HEV, PHEV or EV
CV as basePotential to upgrade to:PHEV or EV
HEV as base
End of survey
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Game 1: PEV Design GamesIncremental prices for upgrades are based on technical literature.
Higher Price Game* Lower Price Game* Compact Sedan Mid-SUV Full-SUV Compact Sedan Mid-SUV Full-SUVHEV $1,080 $1,290 $1,480 $1,740 HEV $780 $850 $920 $1,000 PHEV-10 $2,710 $3,530 $4,120 $5,050 PHEV-10 $2,090 $2,600 $2,950 $3,510 PHEV-20 $3,160 $4,060 $4,830 $5,880 PHEV-20 $2,320 $2,860 $3,300 $3,920 PHEV-40 $4,070 $5,110 $6,240 $7,540 PHEV-40 $2,770 $3,380 $4,000 $4,760 EV-75 $5,940 $6,920 $8,970 $10,550 EV-75 $2,940 $3,140 $4,010 $4,500 EV-100 $7,570 $8,790 $11,490 $13,510 EV-100 $3,760 $4,080 $5,270 $5,980 EV-125 $9,200 $10,670 $14,010 $16,480 EV-125 $4,570 $5,020 $6,530 $7,460 EV-150 $10,820 $12,540 $16,530 $19,450 EV-150 $5,380 $5,960 $7,790 $8,950 EV-200 $14,070 $16,290 $21,570 $25,380 EV-200 $7,010 $7,830 $10,310 $11,910
• All prices were framed as increments added to the “base” vehicle price (CV or HEV)• Incremental prices based on simple electric-drive price model:
– $/kWh was higher for batteries with higher power-energy ratio (W/Wh)– Incremental price includes battery, changes to engine, motor, charger, exhaust and wiring
• Two price scenarios: “Higher” and “lower” battery prices– “Higher” battery prices are double those in “lower” scenario
• Base and incremental prices differ by “base” model: compact, sedan, mid-sized SUV/truck or full-sized SUV/truck
– Incremental prices higher for larger, heavier vehicles
*Price increases relative to the selected “base” vehicle. If respondent selects an HEV as the “base” vehicle, thenincremental prices are as shown, but less the HEV incremental price.
Game 2: Green Electricity Design Games• Each respondent’s assumed monthly household kWh demand was based on their U.S.
State of residence and housing type (detached, attached, apartment or mobile home)• Green electricity program and lease prices were based on two rates:
– Higher price scenario: $0.03 per kWh covered by plan (20 to 100% of monthly kWh)– Lower price scenario: $0.015 per kWh
• Residential solar only offered to respondents with solar potential (rooftop access, and likely would have authority or permission to install)
• Solar installation prices based on:– System size (180, 360, 540, 720 or 900 kWh per month)– Following economies of scale, $/watt was lower for larger systems (as detailed by IBNL, 2011)– Two price scenarios: Higher ($5.1 to $3.6/W) and lower ($3.6 to $2.5/W)—gov’t incentives included– Monthly finance rate based on 5%, 20-year rate
1. Monthly Program 2. Two-Year Lease 3. Install Home SolarSource options Solar, wind, tidal, geothermal,
biomass, small hydro, or determined by electric utility
Lease solar panels or wind turbine (somewhere else)
Solar panels installed at home
Higher price scenario Levels: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% or 100% of household electricity usePrice = $0.03/kWh
Same as Monthly (#1) 180 kWh: $29/month ($5.1/W)360 kWh: $58/month ($5.1/W)540 kWh: $68/month ($4.0/W)720 kWh: $86/month ($3.8/W)900 kWh: $102/month ($3.6/W)
Lower price scenario Levels: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% or 100% of household electricity usePrice = $0.015/kWh
Same as Monthly (#1) 180 kWh: $20/month ($3.6/W)360 kWh: $40/month ($3.6/W)540 kWh: $48/month ($2.8/W)720 kWh: $60/month ($2.7/W)900 kWh: $71/month ($2.5/W)
Savings on electric bill None None Savings = (% solar) x Household bill
Summary of ResultsResults from Game 1 (PEV designs):
– Conventional vehicle buyers most frequently design HEVs (49%) or PHEVs (23-24%).– Hybrid buyers gravitate to HEVs (40-47%) or PHEVs (35 to 38%).– Pure EVs designed by 3-7% of conventional buyers, 7-12% of hybrid buyers.– Plug-in buyers gravitate to PEV designs (28% PHEV, 57% EV).– Respondents that already have “green electricity” are more likely to design PEV.
Results from Game 2 (Green Electricity designs):– Among conventional vehicle buyers, most design some form of green electricity: home solar (23-27%),
a green electricity program (18-22%) or lease (6-9%). – 32-42% of conventional vehicle buyers prefer no green program.– Most hybrid and plug-in buyers either already own a home solar system (32-37%) or design one (18-
35%)
Results from Game 3 (Combined games):– 31% of conventional buyers combined a PEV with a Green-E program, as did 53% of hybrid buyers, and
86% of plug-in buyers.– Adding Green-E options increased overall demand for PEV designs among conventional buyers (23%),
hybrid buyers (20%), and PEV buyers (5%). (While the percent increase is low for PEV buyers, it is from a very high base of over 80 percent.)
Consumer Motivations:– We observe a wide variety of motives across and within respondent segments, including environment,
cost, oil politics, renewable support and control of energy.– Conventional and hybrid buyers are more likely to be motived by cost savings.– PEV buyers more strongly motivated by technical interest and as well as environment.