31.10.2016 monthly update update for investors... · november inflation report. the gdp expansion...

11
31.10.2016 Monthly Update Politics Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic encouraged Hungarian businesspeople present at a Serbia-Hungary business forum in the southern Serbian city of Nis on 21 st of November to invest in Serbia, saying that the government will offer them the best possible terms. The forum, which brought together some 250 representatives of 170 Hungarian and Serbian companies, was also attended by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The European Commission has published Serbia progress report for 2016. As stated by the head of the EU Delegation to Serbia, Michael Davenport, Serbia has recorded sustained progress towards the EU, which led to the opening of the first four chapters, which confirms Serbia's strategic goal to come closer to the Union. Davenport particularly praised the efforts to arrange the public sector, support the economy in the form of ambitious reforms, the arrival of foreign investors, which is supported by the reforms in the rule of law and creating a better business environment. The Serbian government has adopted a second revised national program for the adoption of the EU acquis in the period ending on 31 st of December, 2018, and tasked the EU Integration Office to report on the program’s implementation quarterly. The state seeks to be fully ready by the end of 2018 to assume EU membership obligations given that the framework goal is for Serbia to become an EU member state in 2021. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson visited Belgrade to support Serbia’s EU path and has said that the UK wishes to continue to support Serbia’s EU accession regardless of the recent developments in relations between the EU and the UK. Fiscal Sector In October 2016, public debt of the Republic of Serbia changed from RSD 2,976.1bn (EUR 24.1bn) at the end of September 2016, to RSD 3,028.7bn (EUR 24.6bn) at the end of October 2016. Central Government public debt to GDP (ESA 2010 methodology) ratio was at the level of 72.1% at the end of October 2016. The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in EUR is 41.0%, USD 32.8%, RSD 21.5%, SDR 3.6%, CHF 0.6% and other 0.6% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). In the first ten months of 2016, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD 581.7bn (EUR 4.7bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 466.8bn (EUR 3.8bn), while interest and other costs were RSD 114.9bn (EUR 933mln). Vast majority of items repaid in the first ten months of 2016 belong to government securities issued on domestic market RSD 367.7bn (EUR 3.0bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 306.8bn 1 (EUR 2.5bn) and interest payments were RSD 60.9bn 2 (EUR 495mln). Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 99.6bn (EUR 809mln), out of which principal RSD 51.7bn (EUR 420mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 48.1bn (EUR 391mln) out of which principal RSD 42.7bn (EUR 347mln), while interest were RSD 5.4bn (EUR 44.1mln). In the first ten months of 2016, PDA received RSD 377.2bn (EUR 3.1bn) from domestic market out of which government securities issued in domestic currency amounted to RSD 233.2bn (EUR 1.9bn) while receiving from EUR denominated government securities was RSD 144.0bn (EUR 1.2bn). In the first ten months, budget surplus was RSD 34.3bn (EUR 0.3bn) and other receiving was RSD 8.2bn (EUR 0.1bn). Thanks to successful fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, there has been a notable decline of the fiscal deficit in 2016, which should be 2.1% of GDP, says NBS Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic. "The public debt ratio is expected to drop for the first time since 2008, a year sooner than expected," Governor said at the presentation of the November inflation report. Due to exports growing faster than imports, the current account deficit is declining at a higher rate, and its ratio to GDP should drop to 4.1% this year, she said. Economy The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has again revised upward its projection of GDP growth for 2016, to 2.7%. This is the third revision of the central bank’s GDP growth projection this year, NBS Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said at a presentation of the November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’ GDP growth projection, IMF Mission head James Roaf said that Serbia's growth is strengthening and labor market indicators are showing noticeable improvement. On an end-of-mission press conference, following discussions on the sixth review under Serbia’s precautionary stand-by arrangement (SBA) with the IMF, he also said that IMF expects real GDP growth of 2.7 % in 2016 and 3 % in 2017. The completion of the review will make an additional SDR 54.57 mln (68.53 mln euros) available to Serbia under the SBA, bringing the total funds available to SDR 662.58 mln (832.14 mln euros). According to NBS, current account deficit is expected to shrink, to 4.1% of GDP. This year’s net foreign investments, of EUR 1.8 billion, or 5.2% of GDP, will be more than enough for covering the current account deficit. At the presentation of the November inflation report, the Governor also recalled that the inflation target for 2017 and 2018 has recently been lowered to 3% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, due to improved macroeconomic indicators and economic prospects, as well as price stability. The World Bank has also confirmed the upward trend in the economy of Serbia by increasing growth projections. As stated in the report, the recovery of the Serbian economy continued in 2016. Growth of 2.9 % in the first half of the year translated in the creation of new jobs the employment rate rose to 45.9 %, a record high level since 2008," the report also said. Foreign Direct Investments Representatives of the Serbian government and the British company Delphi Automotive PLC signed Friday, in the presence of Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, an agreement on incentives for the new production plant in Novi Sad, which should start the production of automotive installations and employ 1,000 workers by the end of 2017. The factory, which will be set up in the facility of former Neobus factory in Novi Sad, will be manufacturing automotive components for the world's leading car makers and, as the company officials noted, it will cooperate closely with Delphi plants in the region to ensure efficiency and flexibility for customers. AFI Europe plans to start building residential-commercial complex on site of ex-Yugoslav Interior Ministry’s building in Belgrade in summer 2017. The Netherlands-headquartered real estate development company AFI Europe, part of Israel’s AFI Group, plans to launch construction of planned mixed-use development on the site of the former Yugoslav Interior Ministry headquarters on Kneza Milosa Street in the summer of 2017. 1 Repayments based on Frozen Foreign Currency Bonds are not included in this amount 2 The difference between nominal value and discounted value is included in this amount

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Page 1: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Monthly Update

Politics Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic encouraged Hungarian businesspeople present at a Serbia-Hungary business forum in the southern

Serbian city of Nis on 21st of November to invest in Serbia, saying that the government will offer them the best possible terms. The

forum, which brought together some 250 representatives of 170 Hungarian and Serbian companies, was also attended by Hungarian

Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

The European Commission has published Serbia progress report for 2016. As stated by the head of the EU Delegation to Serbia,

Michael Davenport, Serbia has recorded sustained progress towards the EU, which led to the opening of the first four chapters, which

confirms Serbia's strategic goal to come closer to the Union. Davenport particularly praised the efforts to arrange the public sector,

support the economy in the form of ambitious reforms, the arrival of foreign investors, which is supported by the reforms in the rule of

law and creating a better business environment.

The Serbian government has adopted a second revised national program for the adoption of the EU acquis in the period ending on 31st

of December, 2018, and tasked the EU Integration Office to report on the program’s implementation quarterly. The state seeks to be

fully ready by the end of 2018 to assume EU membership obligations given that the framework goal is for Serbia to become an EU

member state in 2021.

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson visited Belgrade to support Serbia’s EU path and has said that the UK wishes to continue to

support Serbia’s EU accession regardless of the recent developments in relations between the EU and the UK.

Fiscal Sector In October 2016, public debt of the Republic of Serbia changed from RSD 2,976.1bn (EUR 24.1bn) at the end of September 2016, to

RSD 3,028.7bn (EUR 24.6bn) at the end of October 2016. Central Government public debt to GDP (ESA 2010 methodology) ratio

was at the level of 72.1% at the end of October 2016. The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in EUR is

41.0%, USD 32.8%, RSD 21.5%, SDR 3.6%, CHF 0.6% and other 0.6% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). In the first ten months of

2016, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD 581.7bn (EUR

4.7bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 466.8bn (EUR 3.8bn), while interest and other costs were RSD 114.9bn

(EUR 933mln). Vast majority of items repaid in the first ten months of 2016 belong to government securities issued on domestic

market RSD 367.7bn (EUR 3.0bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 306.8bn1 (EUR 2.5bn) and interest payments were

RSD 60.9bn2 (EUR 495mln). Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 99.6bn (EUR 809mln), out of

which principal RSD 51.7bn (EUR 420mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 48.1bn (EUR

391mln) out of which principal RSD 42.7bn (EUR 347mln), while interest were RSD 5.4bn (EUR 44.1mln). In the first ten months of

2016, PDA received RSD 377.2bn (EUR 3.1bn) from domestic market out of which government securities issued in domestic

currency amounted to RSD 233.2bn (EUR 1.9bn) while receiving from EUR denominated government securities was RSD 144.0bn

(EUR 1.2bn). In the first ten months, budget surplus was RSD 34.3bn (EUR 0.3bn) and other receiving was RSD 8.2bn (EUR 0.1bn).

Thanks to successful fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, there has been a notable decline of the fiscal deficit in 2016, which

should be 2.1% of GDP, says NBS Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic. "The public debt ratio is expected to drop for the first time since

2008, a year sooner than expected," Governor said at the presentation of the November inflation report. Due to exports growing faster

than imports, the current account deficit is declining at a higher rate, and its ratio to GDP should drop to 4.1% this year, she said.

Economy The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has again revised upward its projection of GDP growth for 2016, to 2.7%. This is the third

revision of the central bank’s GDP growth projection this year, NBS Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said at a presentation of the

November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

GDP growth projection, IMF Mission head James Roaf said that Serbia's growth is strengthening and labor market indicators are

showing noticeable improvement. On an end-of-mission press conference, following discussions on the sixth review under Serbia’s

precautionary stand-by arrangement (SBA) with the IMF, he also said that IMF expects real GDP growth of 2.7 % in 2016 and 3 % in

2017. The completion of the review will make an additional SDR 54.57 mln (68.53 mln euros) available to Serbia under the SBA,

bringing the total funds available to SDR 662.58 mln (832.14 mln euros).

According to NBS, current account deficit is expected to shrink, to 4.1% of GDP. This year’s net foreign investments, of EUR 1.8

billion, or 5.2% of GDP, will be more than enough for covering the current account deficit. At the presentation of the November

inflation report, the Governor also recalled that the inflation target for 2017 and 2018 has recently been lowered to 3% plus or minus

1.5 percentage points, due to improved macroeconomic indicators and economic prospects, as well as price stability.

The World Bank has also confirmed the upward trend in the economy of Serbia by increasing growth projections. As stated in the

report, the recovery of the Serbian economy continued in 2016. Growth of 2.9 % in the first half of the year translated in the creation

of new jobs – the employment rate rose to 45.9 %, a record high level since 2008," the report also said.

Foreign Direct Investments Representatives of the Serbian government and the British company Delphi Automotive PLC signed Friday, in the presence of Serbian

Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, an agreement on incentives for the new production plant in Novi Sad, which should start the

production of automotive installations and employ 1,000 workers by the end of 2017. The factory, which will be set up in the facility

of former Neobus factory in Novi Sad, will be manufacturing automotive components for the world's leading car makers and, as the

company officials noted, it will cooperate closely with Delphi plants in the region to ensure efficiency and flexibility for customers.

AFI Europe plans to start building residential-commercial complex on site of ex-Yugoslav Interior Ministry’s building in Belgrade in

summer 2017. The Netherlands-headquartered real estate development company AFI Europe, part of Israel’s AFI Group, plans to

launch construction of planned mixed-use development on the site of the former Yugoslav Interior Ministry headquarters on Kneza

Milosa Street in the summer of 2017.

1 Repayments based on Frozen Foreign Currency Bonds are not included in this amount 2 The difference between nominal value and discounted value is included in this amount

Page 2: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Macroeconomic Data Real GDP growth % Industrial

production

Oct16/

Oct15 in %

CPI Current acc.

Balance***

Government bonds on international

market YTM as of 31st October Currency units/USD

Currency

units/EUR

2014 2015 2016* Oct'16/

Sep’16

in %

Oct’16/

Oct’15

in %

Sep’16 last12

months

mlnEUR

% of

GDP

Serbia

2017

Serbia

2018

Serbia

2020

Serbia

2021

31 Oct

2016

31 Oct

2015

31 Oct

2016

31 Oct

2015

-1.8 0.8 2.7 3.2 0.7 1.5 -1,325.7 -3.86 2.287% 2.871% 3.692% 3.872% 112.3126 109.9423 123.1620 120.7606

* Estimated value

Based on the data of the Serbian Statistical Office, consumer prices edged up by 0.7% in October, driven primarily

by the growth in prices of fresh vegetables, electricity and travel packages.

Both headline and core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol ic beverages and cigarettes) measured 1.5% y -o-y.

• The overall external trade in the Republic of Serbia for the period January - October 2016 amounted to:

- USD 28,251.0 million - which was an increase of 7.2% compared to the same period 2015;

- EUR 25,314.5 million - which was an increase of 7.2% compared to the same period 2015.

The value of exports amounted to USD 12,360.4 million, which was 10.1% increase when compared to the same

period last year, while the value of imports amounted to USD 15,890.6 million, which was 5.1% increase relative to

the same period last year. Expressed in Euros, the value of exports amounted to EUR 11,074.1 million, which was

the increase of 10.1%, compared to the same period last year. The value of imports amounted to EUR 14,240.4

million, which was 5.1% increase when compared to the same period last year. The deficit amounted to USD

3,530.2 million, which was a decrease of 9.3% in relation to the same period last year. The deficit expressed in

Euros amounted to 3,166.4 million, which was a decrease of 9.1% compared to the same period last year. The

export - import ratio equaled 77.8% and was higher if compared to the same period last year when it was 74.3%.

Expressed in EUR, value of exports was EUR 1,145.9 million, presenting the increase of 9.2% relative to the same

month last year. Imports amounted to EUR 1,490.8 million, being the increase of 0.7% relative to the same month

last year.

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

0,8%

1,9%

-3,7%

17,7%

79,1%

Real GDP growth for 2015 (%)

Average inflation rate 2015 (%)

Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate Q4 2015

**Foreign Debt as of December

2015 (% GDP)

2015

2,7%

1,5%

-4,0%

15,2%

75,8%

*Real GDP growth for 2016 (%)

YoY inflation rate October (%)

*Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate Q2 2016

**Foreign Debt as of June 2016…

2016

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

% Belgrade OverNight Index Average

250,0

450,0

650,0

850,0

1.050,0

1.250,0

1.450,0

1.650,0Belgrade Stock Exchange Indices

Belex 15 index Belex line index

Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia; National Bank of Serbia; Bloomberg; Ministry of Finance and Economy * Estimated value; **According to

NBS methodology Foreign Debt consist of Public and Private sector debt; *** According to methodological concept of IMF and EU “BPM6” applicable from April

2014; Ɨ General Government;

Page 3: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Currency, Interest Rates and FDI

Key Policy Rates of National Bank of Serbia Current value Last change Date of last meeting Next board meeting

Key policy rate - 2w repo 4.00%

0.00% 10.11.2016 08.12.2016 Deposit facility interest rate 2.50%

Lending facility interest rate 5.50%

Source: National bank of Serbia

Source: National bank of Serbia

• At end-October, NBS FX reserves amounted to EUR 9,706.7 mln, which is sufficient to cover 216% of the

money supply (M1) or six months’ worth of the country's imports of goods and services. Reserves increased by

EUR 155.0 mln from a month earlier even with early and regular repayment of foreign currency -denominated debt

in the total amount of EUR 191.2 mln.Net FX reserves (total reserves less banks’ FX balances on acco unt of

required reserves and other requirements) came at EUR 8,076.0 mln, up by EUR 127.0 mln from end -September.

The growth in FX reserves in both gross and net terms gains particular importance in light of the persistently

unfavorable conditions for asset investment in the international financial market. The largest inflow to FX

reserves in the month under review came from NBS interventions in the IFEM, i.e. purchase of EUR 135 mln

(since July, NBS interventions provided a EUR 640 mln boost to FX reserves ). Significant amounts also flowed in

from the sale of government foreign currency-denominated securities in the domestic financial market (EUR 71.3

mln), grants and the increased FX required reserves of banks (EUR 21.1 mln). An inflow of EUR 131.6 mln was

secured through successful FX reserves management and from other sources. The above inflows more than sufficed

to cover the outflows for servicing of liabilities in respect of frozen FX saving deposits and liabilities on other

grounds (EUR 204.1 mln). IFEM trading volumes reached EUR 336.4 mln in October, up by EUR 30.2 mln from

the month before. In the first ten months of 2016, the v olume of interbank trading tota led EUR 5,135.2 mln.In

October, the dinar appreciated against the euro by a nominal 0.1%, wh ile the NBS intervened in the IFEM by

buying EUR 135 mln in order to ease excessive daily volatility of the exchange rate.

• The industrial production in the Republic of Serbia in October 2016, when compared to October 2015, increased

by 3.2% and in relation to 2015 average, it increased by 12.1%. Industrial production in the period January –

October 2016 increased by 5.2%, relative to the same period 2015.

23456789

101112

%National Bank of Serbia Interest Rates

Key policy rate - 2w repo

Deposit facility interest rate

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

In RSD Exchange Rates

EUR/RSD USD/RSD

Page 4: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016 In EUR million

Source: National bank of Serbia; *FDI value has been presented in compliance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International

Investment Position Manual, International Monetary Fund, 2009 (BPM6) from the end of 2013.

Public Debt Report

Public Debt Stock and Structure as of 31st October 2016: EUR USD RSD GDP%

Direct Liabilities (A)

Internal Debt 9,001,685,622 9,871,248,681 1,108,665,604,566 26.4%

External Debt 13,379,419,637 14,671,871,912 1,647,836,081,335 39.2%

Direct Liabilities in Total 22,381,105,259 24,543,120,593 2,756,501,685,901 65.6%

Indirect Liabilities (B)

Internal Debt 413,711,995 453,676,584 50,953,596,756 1.2%

External Debt 1,796,749,909 1,970,315,995 221,291,312,242 5.3%

Indirect Liabilities in Total 2,210,461,904 2,423,992,580 272,244,908,998 6.5%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt (C)

Internal Debt 255,569,643 280,257,677 31,476,468,378 0.7%

External Debt 110,618,391 121,304,130 13,623,982,285 0.3%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt in Total 366,188,034 401,561,808 45,100,450,662 1.1%

Central Government Public Debt (A+B) 24,591,567,163 26,967,113,173 3,028,746,594,899 72.1%

General Government Public Debt (A+B+C) 24,957,755,197 27,368,674,980 3,073,847,045,562 73.1%

In EUR million

Date Internal Debt External Debt Monthly Change of

Public Debt Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities

30/11/2015 125.6 -12.9 194.1 -42.0 264.8

31/12/2015 318.1 -30.1 -155.9 -16.7 115.5

31/01/2016 -6.6 -13.5 38.0 -6.6 11.2

29/02/2016 65.1 -14.1 -2.9 -12.9 35.3

31/03/2016 -41.0 -26.2 -315.6 -32.5 -415.4

30/04/2016 -199.3 -14.1 28.5 3.3 -181.6

31/05/2016 -91.9 -12.8 140.4 -4.2 31.5

30/06/2016 -91.7 -20.2 27.9 -25.4 -109.4

31/07/2016 160.7 -22.0 83.3 -21.3 200.7

31/08/2016 -42.2 -16.5 -27.9 -24.1 -110.7

30/09/2016 -8.5 -22.2 -82.0 -20.8 -133.4

31/10/2016 206.2 -32.2 127.9 151.5 453.4

In EUR million

2.486 2.068 1.133 3.320 753 1.298 1.236 1.804 1.271

7,4%

6,7%

3,8%

9,9%

2,4%

3,8% 3,7%

5,5%

3,7%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Jan-Sep 2016

Foreign Direct Investment in Serbia in period 2008 - Sep 2016

FDI (net), EUR million FDI (net), %GDP

DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC DEBT

Page 5: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Source: Public Debt Administration

INTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS EXTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS

Source: Public Debt Administration

Source: Public Debt Administration

23.600

23.800

24.000

24.200

24.400

24.600

24.800

25.000

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

22.000

24.000

26.000

In E

UR

mil

lio

n

Public Debt Stock and Structure

Internal debt - direct liabilities Internal debt - indirect liabilitiesExternal debt - direct liabilities External debt - indirect liabilitiesCentral Government Public Debt (right axis)

38,3%

37,5%

38,0%

38,5%

39,0%

39,5%

Internal public debt/total public debt ratio

61,7%

57,0%

58,0%

59,0%

60,0%

61,0%

62,0%

63,0%

External public debt/total public debt ratio

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

8.300

8.500

8.700

8.900

9.100

9.300

In E

UR

mil

lio

n

Internal public debt structure for period October

2015 - October 2016

Direct liabilities

1.600

1.625

1.650

1.675

1.700

1.725

1.750

1.775

1.800

1.825

1.850

9.000

10.000

11.000

12.000

13.000

14.000

In E

UR

mil

liio

n

External public debt structure for period October

2015 - October 2016

Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities

Page 6: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Source: Public Debt Administration

Government Securities DOMESTIC MARKET OVERVIEW

Source: Public Debt Administration

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Price/Yield

Date Closing

price YTM

Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/10/16 114.96 3.872 -1.5% 8.6%

30/09/16 116.70 3.564 0.5% -4.5%

31/08/16 116.13 3.730 0.2% -2.3%

31/07/16 115.92 3.817 1.0% -6.6%

30/06/16 114.75 4.087 0.6% -4.1%

31/05/16 114.09 4.262 0.5% -3.6%

30/04/16 113.47 4.419 1.3% -6.5%

31/03/16 112.07 4.726 -0.5% 1.5%

29/02/16 112.61 4.654 0.2% -1.4%

31/01/16 112.41 4.722 -1.0% 3.8%

31/12/15 113.49 4.547 -0.9% 3.3%

30/11/15 114.48 4.402 -0.2% 0.0%

56,2%

42,3%

1,4%

Internal Public Debt Currency Structure

RSD EUR USD

40,1%

52,2%

0,9%

5,9%0,9%

External Public Debt Currency Structure

EUR USD CHF SDR Other

2,65%

3,58%

4,30%

4,79%

6,50%

5,64%

12,99%

1,5%

3,5%

5,5%

7,5%

9,5%

11,5%

13,5%

6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y

Last Primary Auction Accepted Rate

2,65%

3,99% 6,51%

7,81%

10,60%9,82%

12,99%

1,5%

3,5%

5,5%

7,5%

9,5%

11,5%

13,5%

6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y

Average Accepted Rates at Primary Auction

EUROBOND OVERVIEW

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Tap

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 28.09.2021

Coupon: 7.25% semi-annual

*Size: USD 2.0bn

**Re-offer yield: 6.625%

Re-offer price: 104.179

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 497.0 bps

Announcement date: 27.09.2012

Listing: London Stock Exchange

*Primary auction USD 1,0bn 21.09.2011.; Tap Issuance 27.09.2012. USD 1,0bn. **Tap Issuance re-offer yield.

Page 7: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 21.11.2017

Coupon: 5.250% semi-annual

Size: USD 750.0mln

Re-offer yield: 5.450%

Re-offer price: 99.135

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 482.5 bps

Announcement date: 14.11.2012

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Source: Bloomberg

3,00

3,40

3,80

4,20

4,60

5,00

5,40

5,80

6,20

6,60

7,00

7,40

7,80

96 $

98 $

100 $

102 $

104 $

106 $

108 $

110 $

112 $

114 $

116 $

118 $

120 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2021

Closing price YTM

170 bps

200 bps

230 bps

260 bps

290 bps

320 bps

350 bps

380 bps

410 bps

440 bps

470 bps

0,0

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3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 5Y

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017 - Price/Yield

Date Closing

price YTM

Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/10/16 103.06 2.287 -0.4% 8.0%

30/09/16 103.48 2.118 -0.1% -7.2%

31/08/16 103.55 2.282 0.1% -9.1%

31/07/16 103.49 2.510 0.1% -7.4%

30/06/16 103.41 2.710 -0.4% 3.7%

31/05/16 103.78 2.613 0.3% -10.4%

30/04/16 103.51 2.917 0.2% -8.2%

31/03/16 103.27 3.176 -0.5% 7.7%

29/02/16 103.83 2.949 0.1% -5.2%

31/01/16 103.72 3.110 -0.1% -1.7%

31/12/15 103.77 3.164 -0.4% 4.8%

30/11/15 104.23 3.019 -0.2% 1.5%

Page 8: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Source: Bloomberg

1,501,802,102,402,703,003,303,603,904,204,504,805,105,405,706,006,30

95,0 $

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103,0 $

104,0 $

105,0 $

106,0 $

107,0 $

108,0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2017

Closing price YTM

110 bps

130 bps

150 bps

170 bps

190 bps

210 bps

230 bps

250 bps

270 bps

290 bps

310 bps

330 bps

350 bps

370 bps

390 bps

410 bps

430 bps

0,0

0,5

1,0

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2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

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6,5

In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 1Y

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2020

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 25.02.2020

Coupon: 4.875% semi-annual

Size: USD 1.5bn

Re-offer yield: 5.150%

Re-offer price: 98.401

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 378.4 bps

Announcement date: 14.02.2013

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2020 - Price/Yield

Date Closing

price YTM

Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/10/16 103.65 3.692 -1.0% 8.6%

30/09/16 104.68 3.400 0.3% -2.7%

31/08/16 104.34 3.539 0.3% -2.4%

31/07/16 104.00 3.666 0.8% -5.6%

30/06/16 103.16 3.935 -0.5% 2.9%

31/05/16 102.84 4.046 0.0% -0.3%

30/04/16 102.54 4.146 -0.4% 2.7%

31/03/16 101.71 4.391 -0.6% 3.6%

29/02/16 102.21 4.267 -0.2% 0.8%

31/01/16 102.20 4.280 2.0% -11.5%

31/12/15 102.65 4.169 0.0% -0.1%

30/11/15 103.27 4.026 0.1% -0.6%

Page 9: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Source: Bloomberg

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2018 - Price/Yield

Date Closing

price YTM

Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/10/16 106.04 2.871 -0.2% -0.8%

30/09/16 106.20 2.894 0.0% -3.7%

31/08/16 106.20 3.006 -0.1% -2.0%

31/07/16 106.28 3.068 0.1% -4.4%

30/06/16 106.14 3.209 0.0% -3.4%

31/05/16 106.09 3.321 0.5% -8.1%

30/04/16 105.53 3.613 0.8% -9.2%

31/03/16 104.74 3.981 -0.3% 1.8%

29/02/16 105.08 3.909 0.1% -2.1%

31/01/16 104.99 3.993 -0.4% 2.9%

31/12/15 105.44 3.879 -0.8% 6.0%

30/11/15 106.25 3.660 -0.1% -0.4%

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

5,50

6,00

89,0 $

91,0 $

93,0 $

95,0 $

97,0 $

99,0 $

101,0 $

103,0 $

105,0 $

107,0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2020

Closing price YTM

110 bps

130 bps

150 bps

170 bps

190 bps

210 bps

230 bps

250 bps

270 bps

290 bps

310 bps

330 bps

350 bps

370 bps

390 bps

410 bps

430 bps

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5In

%

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 4Y

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2018

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch); B1(Moody’s)

Maturity: 03.12.2018

Coupon: 5.875 % semi-annual

Size: USD 1.0bn

Re-offer yield: 6.125%

Re-offer price: 98.937

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 476.5 bps

Announcement date: 21.11.2013

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Page 10: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Spread to Benchmark Spread to US Dollar Swap Interest rate

Source: Bloomberg

Amortizing bond - London Club 2024

Auction Date Maturity Date Nominal Value Inflow - Market Value Coupon rate

10/1/2004 11/1/2024 1,080,000,000 972,000,190 6.75%

Closing price and YTM

Date Closing price YTM Monthly price change % Monthly yield change %

31/10/16 101.50 6.507 0.3% -0.6%

30/09/16 101.24 6.548 -0.4% 0.9%

31/08/16 101.62 6.489 -1.3% 3.2%

31/07/16 102.93 6.287 -0.4% 0.9%

30/06/16 103.31 6.232 -0.1% 0.2%

31/05/16 103.41 6.222 0.1% -0.4%

30/04/16 103.30 6.244 -0.1% 0.2%

31/03/16 103.41 6.230 -0.5% 1.1%

29/02/16 103.90 6.161 1.7% -4.0%

31/01/16 102.19 6.417 0.0% 0.0%

31/12/15 102.23 6.414 -0.2% 0.3%

30/11/15 102.39 6.394 0.2% -0.4%

0,00

1,00

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8,00

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100,0 $

120,0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2018

Closing price YTM

180 bps

200 bps

220 bps

240 bps

260 bps

280 bps

300 bps

320 bps

340 bps

360 bps

380 bps

400 bps

420 bps

440 bps

460 bps

480 bps

500 bps

0,0

0,5

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In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 2Y

Page 11: 31.10.2016 Monthly Update update for investors... · November inflation report. The GDP expansion forecast for 2017 remains unchanged, at 3%, according to her. Related to the NBS’

31.10.2016

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate

Source: Bloomberg

6,00

6,10

6,20

6,30

6,40

6,50

6,60

6,70

6,80

6,90

7,00

7,10

7,20

94,0 $

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100,0 $

101,0 $

102,0 $

103,0 $

104,0 $

105,0 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph Amortizing Bond - Serbia London Club 2024

Closing price YTM

375 bps

400 bps

425 bps

450 bps

475 bps

500 bps

525 bps

550 bps

575 bps

600 bps

625 bps

1,0

1,5

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In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 8Y