2020-21

30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide – 2017 Update Report Card

The 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide - 2017 update (the Plan) states that the State Planning Commission (the Commission) will monitor the implementation of the Plan and provide an annual Report Card on the progress of the actions and targets. The scope of the Report Card is to measure progress against six high level strategic targets that reinforce the outcomes of the Plan to deliver a more compact urban form, and to manage growth within the existing urban footprint by monitoring how our city grows. The six targets are a key tool in determining whether the policies and actions outlined in the Plan have been effective in delivering the new urban form.

Each target was reviewed in 2020, using the best available data and methods, to provide an update on progress against the 2015 baseline values set in the Plan. Three of the targets have been measured using reliable and consistent data to provide a direct comparison against the baseline. The remaining targets have data inputs that could not be directly compared against the baseline, or showed potential for improved reporting efficiencies through alternative measures, and were identified as requiring review.

Both Target 3 (getting active) and Target 4 (walkable neighbourhoods) were not measured in 2020 because the only data available is from the 2016 Census. Given the age of this data, it was determined the August 2021 Census will provide more timely and relevant data for assessment of these targets. A review of these targets will take place as part of the 30-Year Plan update, commencing in 2022.

Target 5 (a green liveable city) has seen significant improvements to the data capture and monitoring method since the baseline was established. These improvements have resulted from a partnership between the Government of South Australia (DEW and DPTI) and 18 local governments to measure tree canopy cover1 across metropolitan Adelaide using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. LiDAR data is now recognised as a more accurate and robust method for measuring tree canopy extent and change over time. As a result of this change in method, it is not possible to currently measure progress against the baseline in the Plan.

1 https://data.environment.sa.gov.au/Climate/Data-Systems/Urban-Heat-Mapping/Pages/default.aspx

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Target 1 - Containing our urban footprint and protecting our resources

The Plan aims to progressively change Adelaide’s urban form by containing the outward growth of the metropolitan area and avoiding consumption of highly productive agricultural and horticultural land on the urban fringe.

Target 1.1 - 85% of all new housing in Metropolitan Adelaide will be built in established urban areas by 2045.

Target 1.2 - 90% of all new housing in the Outer Greater Adelaide2 will be built in established townships and designated urban development areas by 2045.

How is this target measured?

The target is measured using annual dwelling count data prepared by the Attorney-General’s Department (AGD). New dwellings are attributed to infill, fringe or township locations within Metropolitan Adelaide3, as shown in Map 1.

Current Status

Target 1.1 Target 1.2

Baseline 2015 76% 88%

Status 2020 82% 91%

Target 2045 85% 90%

Assessment

This target is on track. However, ongoing monitoring is required to capture the most recent urban infill and greenfield development trends.

2 ‘Outer Greater Adelaide’ covers the area outside of the GACC, but within the Greater Adelaide Planning Region (GAPR) shown on Map 1 3 ’Metropolitan Adelaide’ relates to the extent of the Greater Adelaide Capital City (GACC) statistical area, defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and shown on Map 1

Target Achieved

On Track

Some progress

Requires Review

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Map1 – Metro infill vs metro fringe/township

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Target 2 - More ways to get around

The Plan seeks to provide more housing options in locations that are well serviced by frequent public transport, aiming to grow public transport use in Adelaide.

Target - 60% of all new housing in Metropolitan Adelaide is built within close proximity to current and proposed fixed line (rail/tram/O-Bahn) and high frequency bus routes by 2045.

How is this target measured?

This target is measured using annual dwelling count data prepared by AGD. New dwellings are attributed to the defined public transport catchments and then calculated as a proportion of the total dwellings built in Metropolitan Adelaide (urban area). Any additions to the public transport network that meet the high frequency criteria of this target will be added and included in the analysis.

Current Status

Baseline 2015 41%

Status 2020 47%

Target 2045 60%

Assessment

This target is on track. Future monitoring will ensure continued progress towards the target and identify areas for improvement.

Target Achieved

On Track

Some Progress

Requires Review

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Target 3 - Getting active

The plan aims to encourage people to travel to work by active transport modes, including walking, cycling and public transport use. This will result in increased capacity and reduced congestion in the transport network; reduced environmental impacts; improved public health; reduced healthcare costs; and improved community wellbeing and social cohesion.

Target - Increase the share of work trips made by active transport modes by residents of Inner, Middle and Outer Adelaide by 30% by 2045.

How is this target measured?

At this time, only the 5 yearly census data is available. Additional data sources will need to be explored to allow reporting against this target.

Current Status

Metro Adelaide Inner Middle Outer

Baseline 2015 14.1% 24% 14.4% 9.1%

Target 2045 18.3% 31.2% 18.7% 11.8%

Assessment

This ambitious target involves a change in travel behaviour, as well as changes in development patterns and infrastructure planning. As a result, it is expected that it will take time to deliver real measurable change. In addition, the data required to accurately review against the baseline is only delivered once every 5 years through the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census. Given the age of the 2016 Census data, it is not possible to provide an accurate state of play in relation to this target.

It is also worth noting that the Census only captures the journey to work on a single day in each 5-year period. Therefore extraordinary events like rail closures, extreme weather and COVID-19 can limit the effectiveness of this data for reliably measuring change. It is recommended that while the 2021 Census data (released in mid-2022) would provide the best opportunity for an accurate status update using the same data input methods, a review of this target is required.

The Plan review will consider the availability of alternative data sources to enable more frequent status updates. Investigation into methods that may capture a broader range of trips (work, school, shopping and leisure) will also ensure a more comprehensive assessment of travel behaviours. The review may suggest a new baseline be established from 2022.

Target Achieved

On Track

Some Progress

Requires Review

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Target 4 - Walkable neighbourhoods

A ‘walkable neighbourhood’ is where the daily needs of most residents can be met within a short trip of where they live or work. It provides close access by foot, bike or public transport to jobs, shopping, learning, open space, recreation and other amenities and services. Such neighbourhoods have extensive economic, social, health and environmental benefits.

Target - Increase the percentage of residents living in walkable neighbourhoods in Inner, Middle and Outer Metropolitan Adelaide by 25% by 2045.

How is this target measured?

This target measures walking distance to public open space, primary schools, public transport and shops. Population data at the ABS mesh block level (approximately 30 to 60 households) are overlaid with walking networks to estimate the population within each walkability category.

Current Status

Inner Middle Outer

Baseline 2015 73% 53% 30%

Target 2045 90% 66% 36%

Assessment

This target has been identified as requiring review because the data needed to accurately measure performance against the baseline is only delivered once every 5 years through the ABS Census. The current baseline for this target is based on the 2011 census, and the next available data for measuring this target is from the 2016 census. Given the age of the data, it is not possible to provide an accurate state of play in relation to this target.

It is therefore recommended that while the 2021 Census data (expected to be released in mid-2022) would provide the best opportunity for an accurate status update for this target using the same data input methods, a review of this target is required.

The Plan review will consider the availability of alternative data sources to enable more frequent status updates. Effective monitoring of this target also requires the input criteria be reviewed and updated to reflect changes in land use (parks, schools, transport and shops) over time. Consideration may also be given for refining the criteria to ensure relevance of this target into the future. The review may suggest a new baseline be established from 2022.

Target Achieved

On Track

Some Progress

Requires Review

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Target 5 - A green liveable city

Urban tree cover, is known to provide multiple economic, biophysical and social benefits. Regular monitoring of urban tree cover allows for identification of areas with vegetation loss or low vegetation cover and can ensure that urban infill areas maintain appropriate levels of urban greenery.

Target - For council areas with less than 30% tree canopy cover currently, cover should be increased by 20% by 2045.

Target - For council areas with more than 30% tree canopy cover currently, this should be maintained to ensure no net loss by 2045.

How is this target measured?

The target will be measured using software consistently applied to local council areas across the Adelaide metropolitan area. It is recognised that councils currently have varying amounts of tree canopy cover. Therefore, the target has been split into two parts, with one for councils with less than 30% tree canopy cover and a separate target for those with greater than 30% tree canopy cover.

Current Status

Baseline 2020 (LiDAR method – Trees > 3m, excluding Adelaide Hills) 23.4% average

Target 2045 (LiDAR method– Trees > 3m, excluding Adelaide Hills) 26.7% average

Assessment

Since the release of the Plan in 2017, this target has seen significant progress in terms of an enhanced data capture and analysis method. This progress has resulted from a partnership between the Government of South Australia (DEW and DPTI) and 18 local governments to measure tree canopy cover across metropolitan Adelaide using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. The outcomes of a 2018/2019 study have demonstrated the effectiveness of LiDAR data as a more accurate and robust method for measuring tree canopy extent and change over time (see image below). As a result of this change in method, it is not currently possible to measure progress against the baseline in the Plan.

Target Achieved

On Track

Some Progress

Requires Review

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Image: Extract from Urban Heat and Tree Mapping of Adelaide Metropolitan Area (https://data.environment.sa.gov.au/Climate/Data-Systems/Urban-Heat-Mapping/Pages/default.aspx)

The table below outlines the differences between the LiDAR method and that used to set the 2015 baseline (i-Tree method) in the 30-Year Plan. It demonstrates why these methods cannot be compared directly, and therefore why an accurate measure of change is not currently possible.

Key variations between i-Tree and LiDAR methods

i-Tree method LiDAR method

• Measures trees and shrubs.

• Random sample technique applied to LGA.

• Covered 19 LGAs including Adelaide Hills which had the highest canopy cover (>50%) of all LGAs in the study area. Measurements were provided for each LGA. An average of the 19 LGAs is shown for the baseline.

• Measures tree canopy only (trees greater than 3m).

• Accurate and complete measurement of all trees.

• Captured for most metropolitan LGAs. Adelaide Hills, Playford and Gawler LGAs were only partially captured by LiDAR. These LGAs could therefore not be calculated and were excluded from the 2020 calculation.

The 2018/2019 LiDAR data capture has been used to map tree canopy cover by LGA as displayed in Map 2. The benefits of this data to provide a more accurate and repetitive method for monitoring change over time has led to the recommendation that this data be used to establish a new baseline for the 2020 report card. In June 2022, updated LiDAR data will be available to provide the first like-for-like comparison of tree canopy change.

In addition to the improved measurement method, there are recent policy changes that will facilitate successful achievement of this target in the longer term. These include:

• The Planning and Design Code now incorporates an Urban Tree Canopy Overlay, with the dersired outcome being to ensure that new residential development preserves and enhances urban tree canopy through the planting of new trees and retention of existing mature trees.

• The Urban Tree Canopy Off-set Scheme facilitates tree planting and the enhancement of tree canopy in metropolitan Adelaide.

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Map 2 – Tree canopy cover across metropolitan Adelaide, LiDAR 2018/2019

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Target 6 - Greater housing choice

Historically, the predominant form of housing built in Adelaide has been detached dwellings on large allotments. The Plan seeks to facilitate the supply of a diverse and well-designed range of housing types to cater for all ages and lifestyles.

Target - Increase housing diversity by 25% to meet changing household needs by 2045. The baseline indicates that 25% of dwellings built between 2010 and 2014 were not “detached”. A 25% increase in diversity aims to see this rise to 32%.

How is this target measured?

This target will be measured using annual dwelling count data prepared by AGD to track the number of dwellings built by type. It will use a rolling five-year average to calculate the ratio of detached to non-detached dwellings.

Current Status

Non-detached:Detached

Baseline 2015 25:75

Status 2020 33:67

Target 2045 32:68

Assessment

This target is on track. While the latest data indicates that this target has been achieved, further monitoring is required to ensure a diverse range of housing is developed in the future.

Target Achieved

On Track

Some Progress

Requires Review

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Summary

The following three targets are on track to be delivered and will continue to be monitored:

• Target 1 - containing our urban footprint and protecting our resources

• Target 2 - more ways to get around

• Target 6 - greater housing choice

The three remaining targets contain strategies that are important to monitor, however the measures developed in the 30-Year Plan require review:

• Target 3 - getting active

• Target 4 - walkable neighbourhoods

• Target 5 - a green liveable city