3. regional socioeconomic trends · 2018-07-07 · assessment, homes built during this period are...

North Shanly Area Development Plan 16

3. REGIONAL SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS

This section presents a summary of supply and demand trends related to the uses planned for the North Shanly parcel, with a focus on multi-family residential. It starts with an overview of the economic health of the area, continues with information about growth anticipated with the coming of the F-35 fighter jet battalions to Eielson Air Force Base (EAFB), and then goes on to summarize general prospects for multi-family housing and commercial growth in the North Shanly area.

a. Fairbanks Economic Overview

The Fairbanks economy, like much of Alaska, is heavily dependent on spending by the State of Alaska and the US military. The steep drop in the price of oil has impacted the Fairbanks economy in two ways, leading to reduced state spending, and also hurting local private sector businesses with ties to the oil industry.

1. State Spending

Alaska currently faces difficult economic times due to declining oil production, and low oil prices, as well as low mineral prices. Overall state spending has been reduced 44 percent in the past five years. Despite these cuts, the operating budget relies upon drawing from the Constitutional Budget Reserve, Alaska’s dwindling main savings account (other than the Permanent Fund and related earnings reserve). As a result of Alaska’s unsustainable reliance on financial reserves, in recent years credit rating agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s downgraded Alaska’s credit rating.

2. Employment

Job losses on the North Slope affect Fairbanks both directly, as 1,150 Fairbanks residents work there, and indirectly, as those jobs generate activity in secondary industries such as retail, hospitality, and utilities. Likewise, the Borough’s construction industry has been hurt by low oil prices. Continued cuts to the state’s capital budget have put a damper on projects, and decreased petroleum activity has reduced employment for construction companies.

Some of the Borough’s largest employment losses in 2016 came from the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Allocations to UAF from the state general fund peaked in FY 2015 and are in decline. UAF has lost more than 200 jobs since its peak in 2013 and will continue to cut jobs in the near term.

The economic situation took a toll on professional and business services in Fairbanks in 2016, resulting in the loss of 100 jobs in those sectors. More of the same was expected in 2017.

Bed tax collection increased by 10 percent from 2012 to 2015, suggesting tourism is growing in the Golden Heart City. However, the hospitality industry lost about 100 jobs in 2016. In Fairbanks it is largely local consumption that drives the leisure and hospitality industry. The leisure and hospitality market is forecasted to lose another 100 jobs in 2017, as residents are spending less after job losses in other industries.


FNSB population grew steadily over the last 50 years, from 45,000 in 1960 to just over 100,000 in 2012, with regional population an estimated 98,957 in 2016 according to the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. According to a recent Housing Requirements and Market Analysis tied to the arrival of the F-35 fighter jets, FNSB population will grow 1.1 percent per year over the next ten years, for a projected population of 110,555 by 2020; total housing units would increase from 41,783 units in 2010 to 47,182 units in 2020.

b. Findings of the Regional Growth Management Plan (GMP)

1. Magnitude of EAFB Growth

Based on the original F-35 environmental impact statement and more recent work, the F-35 bed down is expected to bring over 5,500 new residents into the region by 2030. This welcome, regional growth will happen in stages, with the first of two F-35 squadrons scheduled to arrive in federal fiscal year 2020. Current estimates indicate an eventual demand for 974 new housing units to serve military personnel, civilian employees, technical consultants and their dependents. The Air Force has stated they will not build new housing on-base to serve the F-35 population, and instead will focus on off-base housing, largely in the 20 minute commute radius of the base.12

12 Regional Growth Management Plan, December 5, 2017 Draft, Arcadis/Agnew::Beck Consulting.

Figure 14: EAFB Expansion Numbers


3. Magnitude of EAFB-Driven Housing Demand; Relationship to Available Supply

Figure 16 summarizes anticipated Eielson-related housing demand overall; Figure 17 compares the total regional supply against anticipated demand, and Figure 18 delivers data strictly for the 99705 zip code – North Pole.

Demand for off-base housing direct from F-35 households is estimated at 974 housing units, the majority of which are needed by Federal FY 2020 and FY 2021. The supply evaluation takes the total amount of rental units in North Pole and reduces them by 43 percent to account for poor condition as determined by information from the Borough Assessor and the US Census Bureau.

Next, an estimate of new construction Borough-wide is included, based on new construction from 2012-2016. In those years, an average 259 units have been built – this analysis assumes that the current trend continues. The end result borough-wide is that the combination of vacant housing units, after accounting for poor condition, and new construction at the pace that’s been occurring most recently, will provide adequate housing to meet the demand generated by the F-35 induced population growth. However, looking in the area nearest EAFB provides a different perspective.

Figure 15: Overall Housing Requirements of EAFB Expansion


In the greater North Pole area, where demand is projected to be greatest, analysis suggests there will be a deficit of about 200 units. While the majority of new Eielson staff can be expected to settle in North Pole, the ripple of population redistribution may be felt throughout the borough’s housing market.

Figure 16: New Construction Needed Regionally

Figure 17: North Pole Housing Gap


c. Housing Supply and Demand in the Borough

According to the most recent U.S. Census estimates, the Borough has 35,740 occupied housing units, 60 percent owner occupied and 40 percent rented. More than 7 out of 10 are single-family homes. Apartments and condos together make up 19 percent, duplexes 5 percent, and mobile homes the remaining 4 percent.13 Compared to the rest of the U.S., Fairbanks has relatively young housing, but the quickly and inexpensively built homes of the 1970’s and 1980’s oil boom has quickly deteriorated.

1. Housing Characteristics Overview

Housing in Fairbanks stands out for the occasional lack of basic features – home to nearly eight times the national average of homes lacking complete plumbing or kitchens. A significant part of the population lives without these typical creature comforts because of lifestyle and/or financial choices, limited access to reliably clean water sources, and the costs of drilling household wells.

When it comes to heating, more than three-quarters of homes in the Borough use oil. While natural gas and electricity are common around the state, availability and cost are unfavorable in Fairbanks. This has led to wood being the second most common heat source in Fairbanks, with residents three times more likely to burn wood than the national average. Fairbanks’ utility costs rank second nationally behind Hilo, Hawaii, in a national cost-of-living index.

People are more likely to rent, rather than own their home, in Fairbanks than in other areas of the state or country, but the gap is narrowing. At the time of the 1960 Census, Fairbanks housing was 65 percent renter-occupied. The percentage fell to 51 percent by 1990, and by 2010 Fairbanks had proportionally more renters than Alaska as a whole by 74.3 percentage points and more than the nation by 6.3 percentage points.

2. Regional Multi-family Housing Conditions and Trends

The character of the Borough’s inventory of multi-family housing reflects market conditions at the time of construction. Almost half of the all housing, and a greater share of multi-family housing, was built quickly during the 1970’s and 1980’s, during booming pipeline construction and pipeline wealth years. Per the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation (AHFC) 2014 Housing Assessment, homes built during this period are at higher risk for moisture and air quality problems. Most of these older dwellings are also less energy efficient, which adds hefty

13 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Alaska Trends, August 2014.

Figure 18: Mixed Use Development (RTM Engineering)


monthly operating costs in a location with cold winters and relying primarily on fuel oil as a heat source. Many units are dilapidated, lack water or electricity, or are in less desirable areas of town.

Summary data on FNSB multi-family housing is presented below, from the Arcadis/Agnew::Beck regional Growth Plan Existing Conditions report. While supply and vacancy numbers suggest a strong supply of available multi-family units, the reality is a large percentage of these units do not fulfill the market’s preferences in terms of location, quality and energy efficiency. a. Nearly 30 percent of the approximately 40,000 homes in the FNSB are multi-family units,

including duplexes, townhouses and apartments. In the City of Fairbanks, multi-family units are more common, while in more outlying areas such as Moose Creek and Salcha, single-family homes are the more dominant housing type.14

b. March 2017 data from FNSB indicates the average rent in Fairbanks (utilities included) is $1,208. Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment with utilities is $1,209, while average rent for a three-bedroom house is $2,039.

c. FNSB Community Planning data indicates the vacancy rate for FNSB apartments and multi-plex housing has declined over the last 4 years. The rate was 11.5 percent in March 2017 and March 2016, down from vacancy rates in 2014 (15 percent) and 2015 (15.2 percent). These figures are annual averages, with variations throughout any given year, as evidenced by the numbers in Figure 20.

d. Rental rates in March 2017 were the same or lower for apartments and cabins, with increased costs for two and three bedroom homes.

e. During the spring 2017 Housing Survey, vacant rental housing units included what is shown below in Figure 20. More than one-third of vacant homes are for seasonal, recreational or occasional use and are unlikely to be available for incoming households. This indicates vacancy rates alone should not be used to predict housing availability.

Apartments Houses Mobile Homes

Cabins Total Vacant Rentals

Efficiency: 38 units 1 bedroom: 133 units 2 bedroom: 146 units 3+ bedroom: 94

1 bedroom: 0 2 bedroom: 2 3 bedroom: 6 4+ bedroom: 11

0 13 443 rentals This number is up from 409 in March 2016 (8 percent increase), although less than the 582 reported in December 2016.

Figure 19: Vacancies in FNSB (Community Research Quarterly, Vol XL, No 1, 2017)

d. Financial Feasibility Limitations for Multi-Family Rental Housing

Developers and investors in the FNSB express that quality multi-family rental housing is very difficult to finance and construct without exceeding what most renters typically pay.15 This

14 American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates. 15 FNSB Builder Roundtable, April 2016; FEDCO Housing Summit, August 2017, North Shanly Stakeholder Charrette, August 2017.


challenge is not unique to Fairbanks; much of the country is struggling to expand the supply of housing affordable for low-to-middle class renters.

The specific, most widely cited affordability challenge for developing multi-family rental housing is the project valuation and appraisal process. Lenders typically provide no more than 80 percent of the appraised value of the project. This value is based on sales of what are often older buildings that lack the quality or efficiency of new construction. Judgements about value also reflect expected revenues, based on typical Fairbanks area rents without much distinction for differences in quality.

Typically, banks will lend at 75 to 80 percent of their independent judgements of value, which is often closer to 50 percent of the project’s actual development cost. The resulting construction or development loan means the developer’s equity portion of the project is often 50 percent or more. This presents a significant barrier for all but the most well capitalized developers, of which there are few operating in the Borough. Even for developers with access to substantial capital, the return on their investment is generally below what they can gain from investing in real estate sales or in single family or duplex rental properties.

This issue is not isolated to providing housing that supports the anticipate EAFB growth. Newer high density rental housing products also face similar financing issues throughout Alaska.

e. Prospects for Multi-family Residential Rental Housing at North Shanly

A number of factors paint an encouraging view for the prospects of multi-family rental housing on the North Shanly parcel. These include:

1. National and state trends point towards a demand for smaller homes and walkable, mixed use neighborhoods. Part of this trend is driven by growing numbers of smaller and non-traditional households and the widening gap between housing costs and earnings. For example, in the U.S. as a whole, the percentage of 1 and 2 person households has increased from 40 percent of all households in 1960 to 60 percent in 2016.16 A related trend, particularly for millennials and seniors, is growing interest in the convenience and pleasures of urban vs. suburban or rural settings. The first half of this current decade saw a reversal of the trend of the previous 50 years, with more people moving to cities than suburbs.

2. The College Road/North Shanly area provides the type of amenities sought by a growing percentage of the housing market, providing a real advantage over many other existing and potential multi-family housing areas in the Borough. The area is walkable and offers several restaurants, a range of shops, close proximity to the University, and potential for improved open space/recreation lands associated with this project.

3. While Statewide trends and recent history in the Fairbanks area show declining employment

16 https://weareapartments.org/NMHC-NAA-US-Apartment-Demand-in-2030.pdf


and declining populations, the arrival of the F-35’s is expected to provide some relief and lead to stable or slightly growing regional populations over the coming decade.

4. While vacancies for the full stock of multi-family housing in the Borough are high – over 11 percent,17 vacancy rates are lower in more recently built, more energy efficient multi-family projects, including a 7-unit project adjoining the North Shanly parcel (described below). Reasons to believe the true demand is higher than what is suggested by the 10 percent vacancy rate are listed below:

a. A large percentage of the multi-family rental housing stock is physically dilapidated and very costly to heat. Analysis in the Regional Growth Management Plan, based on data from the FNSB Assessor’s office, indicates that 40 to 50 percent of the region’s nominally available rental housing stock is below average in physical condition. Because of the low quality of this housing, the GMP assumes that 42 percent of region’s vacant multi-family housing stock is significantly undesirable and effectively not available to meet housing demand.

b. Heating costs in the Borough are high, due to the climate and the high cost of various heating fuels. Poorly insulated, poorly built homes, which is the case of much of the Borough’s multifamily housing stock, can have heating bills of $500 to $1000 per month. Renters can break even or come out ahead by moving into energy efficient homes, where heating costs can be under $200 per month.

c. Because of the poor quality of much of the rental housing in the region, the existing population can drive demand for quality units, as people shift from low to better quality housing, and units with lower heating costs.

d. The average age of the multi-family housing units in close proximity to the North Shanly area (roughly 90 units) is 38 years.18 Given the age of the existing multi-family housing, and the attractions of this College Road vicinity, demand for quality new rental housing is foreseeable in this area. Only one new multi-family rental housing project appears to be pending in the College Road area (12 units proposed).19

e. The combination of high construction costs, financing constraints, the cost to develop quality multi-family rental housing has traditionally resulted in rents higher than typical for the area. As a result, there have been very few apartments built in the region in the last

17 FNSB Community Research Quarterly, Vol. XL, No. 1, 2017. 18 FNSB Assessor Data, 2016. 19 FNSB Zoning Permit 17625, Issued August 1, 2016.

Figure 20: College Road Apartment Building (Google Street View)


30 years. This lack of supply, even as many people would prefer to live in quality multi-family housing, creates pent up demand for new livable, energy efficient spaces.

5. There is significant demand for multi-family housing linked to the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Previous conversations with UAF personnel suggest that demand would be strong for good quality, moderate priced units in this area, particularly for faculty and graduate students.

a. UAF is home to approximately 1,616 dormitory rooms, apartments, or other housing units. The average actual age for these buildings is 52 years.20

b. Per the UAF ARIS System reports available online, there were significant renovations to three buildings in 1997, one in 2006 (same as one renovated in 1997) and another in 2010. This leaves 19 of the 23 residential structures on campus without major renovation work in the last 20 years.21

c. Utilizing UAF Design and Construction “Planned Renovation Maps” from 2015-2017, 13 buildings were to see renovations, although minor in some instances. The projects ranged from “light renewal” in two units (lighting, flooring, counters, fixtures) to egress window code corrections or replacement. Some of these projects were limited to exterior repairs.

d. UAF contracted a Campus Life Master Plan published in 2005 which proposed 100 new residential units with four single occupancy bedrooms and two bathrooms in each unit (400 rooms total).22

e. The proposed units were never built, leaving the Plan’s determined need for more single bedrooms unmet.

6. There is verifiable success of a recently constructed multi-family project just south of the Borough parcel. This project features seven, 1-bedroom units renting at $1,350/month with 3 year leases, well above the average Fairbanks area rent. According to the Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development, average rent plus utility costs averaged $1,208/month for apartments and $1,766/month for single family homes in Fairbanks.23

The developer reports high demand which can be attributed to the fact that the units are

20 http://alaska.edu/facilities/facilities-inventory/ 21 https://www.alaska.edu/files/facilities/ARIS-Report-07_01_2013.xlsx 22 UAF Campus Life Master Plan, Final Report November 7, 2005. 23 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section and Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, 2017 Rental Market Survey, March 2017.

Figure 21: UAF Residence Hall (UAF)


well built with modern appliances including washer and dryer, and because they are designed to be energy efficient. Utility bills average only $148/month, significantly below the typical costs in older units.24 While only one project, the results give a useful indication of the demand for well built, modestly priced, energy efficient rental housing in the North Shanly area.

Taken together, the evidence above suggests the demand would be strong for the relatively modest number of new multi-family rental housing proposed for the FNSB North Shanly project. Rentals in this attractive area are largely older and often of inferior quality.

While the demand opportunities described above are real, expanding the supply of multi-family housing in any Alaska location is challenging. The main challenge is finding ways to help fill the gap between what the market can or will pay for rental housing versus the cost required to develop these projects. As explained above, this means that a substantial amount of equity (40 to 50 percent of total development costs) is required and often the return on equity is low. The result is that the developer has a large investment required with relatively low returns. To overcome these challenges, as is outlined in more detail later in this plan, the FNSB will explore forms of partnership designed to encourage construction of quality, modestly priced multi-family rental housing by local developers.

f. Prospects for Commercial Use at North Shanly

The North Shanly project sits just to the north of College Rd, which has long been a major commercial center in the Fairbanks area. Notable factors for commercial development are:

1. Strategic location. This area is the first “in town” retail location that can be reached from the large residential district located further north and west up Farmers Loop Road.

2. Good mix of existing uses. Other than downtown Fairbanks, the College Road area offers one of the few places in the region with a collection of locally owned, specialty retail in a walkable cluster. The College Road/University commercial area is known for its eclectic mix of uses, restaurants and close proximity to UAF. Such areas are attractive to regional residents, visitors, and to the residents located in the immediately surrounding area.

24 North Shanly Stakeholder Meeting, August 3, 2017.

Figure 22: Important Places


3. Capacity for growth. This area could become an attractive destination for residents or casual users with a greater number and variety of stores and services. A particular benefit, as mentioned above, would be the addition of several services that are most important for the convenience needs of daily life, notably a grocery store and drug store.

4. Constraints for commercial? The same qualities that make this area attractive – notably its mix of smaller, locally owned retail establishments – can be seen as limiting since the area lacks the larger anchor retailer that will draw the most customers and can help support adjoining businesses.

The College Road area houses some Fairbanks retail favorites, including College Floral, Hot Licks Ice Cream, College Coffee House and Beaver Sports. A number of popular, low capital cost dining spots have developed recently in the area. This set of uses, along with coffee stands, liquor and office services stores, and other restaurants, provide this district with a decent collection of the retail uses that greatly adds to the desirability of nearby multi-family housing.

There are several retail categories that are not well represented in the neighborhood. Given the area’s large student and senior population, a multi-use center with a grocery store in walking distance would be ideal. New to the area is a specialty Sunshine Health Foods store, still leaving an opportunity for a mainstream grocer.

The College Road/North Shanly area has seen little commercial growth in recent years, and limited improvement to existing commercial structures. College Floral renovated and added onto their structure in 1984 and 1996. The Beaver Sports warehouse was originally built in the 1970’s as a lumber yard and is the only one between Noyes Slough and Goldstream Valley Road zoned Light Industrial (LI). The Bachner Building (aka Denali Building) currently houses Alaska

Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys and was extensively renovated in 2005.25

The commercial structures in this area average almost 40 years old, and many would benefit from significant refurbishment. The only commercial growth in the area of North Shanly in recent years has been the Pita Place (ground lease from Bachner Company) and Sunrise Bagel & Expresso (ground lease from UA Land Management).

Aside from the Borough’s holdings in North Shanly, there are very few developed or undeveloped tracts available for retail growth in the area

25 FNSB Assessor Data, 2016.

Figure 23: Local Open-Air Eatery (Agnew::Beck)


immediately surrounding North Shanly. The University of Alaska Fairbanks owns several lots in the North Shanly Development Area, including one on Lutke Avenue on a long term lease for a cell tower.

4) COLLEGE AREA OPPORTUNITIES

The character of a neighborhood greatly affects the experience of living there. For a growing segment of the housing market, the presence of nearby shopping, dining, entertainment, open space and recreation is a big draw, and particularly for multi-family housing, can determine if any given location is a desirable place to live. Much of what drives demand in Alaska and the US is a growing desire to live in places where it is easy, safe and inviting to walk to a restaurant or a coffee shop, the post office, park or even a workplace.

An important part of what makes the North Shanly area a good candidate for successful multi-family housing is the proximity and character of the commercial uses along and near College Road. This section provides current attributes of this neighborhood, and also offers some general strategies for further improving the area. The intent of this material is not to impose any formal policies, but to encourage public discussion of the area’s positive qualities and opportunities for improvement. Enhancing these qualities can support success of the North Shanly project, and also help guide use of the North Shanly project to benefit surrounding areas.

a. Unique Neighborhood

1. Strategic location 2. Concentrated mixed use 3. Diverse markets 4. Access to open space 5. Walkable with varied transportation options 6. Distinct character

b. University Population The University of Alaska Fairbanks is located within walking distance of the North Shanly development areas. It is this population that would likely serve as a primary market for new rental housing and commercial ventures in the area. With a Fall 2017 enrollment of over 8,700 students, UAF lends to this neighborhood’s character and drives its economic success. A few other pertinent facts about UAF’s student population: 1. A great many of them live off campus. Fall 2017 figures show only 39.5% of freshmen living on

campus, and 30% of undergraduates (87.8% of total enrollment are undergraduates). This means that more than 5,000 UAF students live off campus.

2. The median age of the UAF student is 26. 3. There are around 4,000 employees including student workers, staff and over 500 faculty

members.


c. Issues and Future Goals 1. Promote a walkable, pedestrian friendly environment. 2. Elevate the area’s visual appeal. 3. Fill strategic gaps in the types of private and public services offered by retailers and the Borough,

including key anchor draws like a grocery store, recreational facilities and housing. 4. Provide for shared parking; minimize on-site parking requirements. 5. Explore creation of a Development Area, for the purpose of:

a. Utilizing the full gamut of public-private partnerships, including shared costs for infrastructure projects, façade improvement loans, tax abatement and similar measures to encourage further infill and redevelopment.

b. Assign design guidelines to project to promote attractive structures with a positive relationship to the street, and to provide for smooth transitions between residential and non-residential areas in the project area.

c. Make improvements in the public right-of-way, using landscaping, attractive lighting and other proven urban design techniques.

5) PUBLIC/STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT

The Division of Land Management hosted a small roundtable of stakeholders in the North Shanly Area in August 2017. Participants communicated a generally positive outlook for development of the area. The following is a summary of the comments made in this preliminary discussion about the possible uses and overall potential of the Borough land for development.

It’s just a really nice, beautiful corridor waiting for more to happen, I think personally. The idea that I could put my car away, and I could go walk to a restaurant and get something to eat or hook up with a recreational area, to me is just wonderful.

~Deb Hickok Hospitality Executive

From a personal perspective I run all along that area. I exercise all along Farmer’s Loop, around College Road, and there is a lot of traffic: bicycles, people running. If it were more developed, I would run in that area.

~Tiffany Van Horn Director of Administration, Utility Services Alaska

I think it should be a destination area and not just a residential area. If we’re going to bring new people to the area, then there has to be something there that will do that. I would like to see the quality coming up in that area, with a little bit better housing, a little bit nicer in terms of quality.

Fat tire biking, skiing, even in the summer there are people that are back there walking some of those trails if it’s dry enough. They get used year-round. That’s kind of a connector to the dog-sled trails, and then you can go on those trails all the way to the Steese Highway.

~Greg Whisenant Owner, Beaver Sports and North Shanly Property Owner


The future of Fairbanks is density, no longer sprawl, people need to live closer in. Most of our tenants are in their mid-20’s. Few of them want to have two acres, 10 miles out of town. They want to be able to be everywhere. They’re mobile, they want to move, and at this time in their lives they don’t want to own. There are many parallels between millennials and boomers in their housing ideals.

My personal belief as a builder and developer is that the North Shanly area is some of the best remaining ground in Fairbanks. This area has utilities close by, it’s near UAF and has all the amenities that people want. College Road has always been a great place to live. Now it’s up-and-coming, it’s been rejuvenated.

The folks who have rented our units said there are very few quality multi-family units in Fairbanks. The existing inventory is old, inefficient, and run-down. I believe we could build 100 similar units tomorrow and they’d all be full. The older, run-down, 40- 50 year old buildings that are not in very good shape - those units are the ones that people will move out of to move into higher quality, efficient apartments.

~Aaron Welterlen

Fairbanks Builder, Developer and North Shanly Property Owner Other participants included:

Laurie Swartz - Senior Property Manager, UA Land

Nadine Winters - Executive Director, Fairbanks Neighborhood Housing Services FNSB Parks & Recreation Staff FNSB Assessing & Land Management Staff

Chris Beck - Agnew::Beck Consulting Tamás Deák - KPB Architects

Figure 24: Horizontal Mixed Use (KPB Architects)


6) PLANS FOR NORTH SHANLY

a. Land Use

The following pages describe FNSB’s desired outcome for development of the different areas within this parcel. Multi-family housing should be the primary use for the developed portions of the North Shanly tract. Reasons are outlined earlier in this plan and include the particular attributes and location of this tract, as well as the unmet need for quality multi-family housing in the Borough. This project provides an opportunity for a successful demonstration of a Public-Private Partnership to meet an identified public need.

1. Development Area I – Vogel Avenue Parcel: Multi-family

The Vogel Avenue parcel contains approximately 5 acres. Access into this parcel would be primarily from Ivanof Drive, with a secondary access route from Cordwood Drive or perhaps through the transitional area. A portion of this area is in FEMA Flood Zone ‘A’ and will require a floodplain permit.

Housing types could include small 2-5 unit clusters or apartments. Desired densities range from a minimum of 16 units per acre up to 29 units per acre. Guidelines for housing character are presented later in this chapter.

Area Acreage (existing

lots)

Recommended Use(s)

Lower Density

Medium Density

High Density

Units/ Acre

Total Units

Units/Acre

Total Units

Units/ Acre

Total Units

Vogel Parcel Development

Area I 4.1

Multi-Family Rental

Residential 16 66 22 90 29 119

Lutke Parcel Development

Area II 2.6

Multi-Family Rental

Residential and/or

Commercial

16 42 22 57 29 75

Total Residential Units per Density 108 147 194

Transitional Parcel

TBD Recreational; Parking N/A 0 N/A 0 N/A 0

Open Space/ Park

16.38 Park & Open Space N/A 0 N/A 0 N/A 0

Figure 25: Development Density Range


2. Development Area II – Lutke Avenue Parcel: Mixed or Single Use (Commercial & Multifamily)

The Lutke parcel is approximately 2.6 acres in size. Access into this parcel would be from Hayes Avenue, Cordwood Drive or directly off Lutke Avenue, with a connection passing through to the west side of the Vogel Avenue property by way of Cordwood or perhaps through the transitional area.

Housing types match those on the Vogel parcel; allowed densities range from a minimum of 16 units per acre up to 29 units per acre. Guidelines for housing character are presented in the following pages.

While Light Commercial will be the expected zoning classification of this parcel, multi-family residential use is an allowed, secondary use. Examples could include vertically mixed, multi-story projects - commercial uses on ground floor and residential above - or a stand-alone commercial building, such as a restaurant or personal service business providing a horizontal mixed use experience. Commercial uses will be conditioned to those which complement residential development and provide residents with a commonly used service.

Parking for commercial uses on site will be challenging if conventional parking standards are followed. The developer should work with Borough staff and adjoining private land owners to explore options for shared parking on adjoining parcels or on the adjoining recreational area owned by the Borough. FNSBC Title 18 allows up to 50% of the required off-street parking to be utilized by other uses with some conditions. Ideally, parking would be shared with the open space area, which would serve to advance recreational development on that parcel.

Figure 26: Area of Plan


3. Open Space/Park: Recreational Use

While the original North Shanly donation was accepted with the general idea of park use, there are no formal conditions to use this property for those purposes. As noted above, the FNSB Assembly approved the sale of portions of the original donated property. Given the value of recreational opportunities in a neighborhood, and the physical constraints of portions of the property, open space remains an important consideration for this area, and will add value to planned housing and the College Road neighborhood as a whole.

More investigation and community discussions are needed to determine specifically the best recreation and open space uses of land identified for those general purposes.

Items to consider for the large natural space include:

a. Consider to what extent the wetland areas should remain in their current natural condition, or alternatively, be filled or otherwise modified to support more intensive recreational use.

b. Determine the greater recreational needs of the neighborhood and broader community.

c. Explore the benefit of creating trails, boardwalks and related day use facilities supporting less intensive recreational activities.

d. Analyze how to best align future recreational uses with planned residential life in the area.

e. Ensure that there are adequate buffers between the park and transfer site, and between the park and existing and planned future residential development.

f. Determine how to best link the recreational area with possible future uses of the large, undeveloped parcels to the north owned by UA.

g. Evaluate practical options to provide trails in and through this area, linking the College Road neighborhood and its commercial and residential uses, with destinations like Creamer’s Field.

h. Determine what infrastructure would be needed to serve different park plans, such as restrooms and day use facilities. Evaluate whether vehicular access can be managed to provide access needed for more intensive recreation activities, such as sports fields, without adversely impacting existing and planned residential areas. Evaluate whether a new road access point can be created onto Farmers Loop Road without creating safety or congestion issues.

Final design of the park space will be coordinated with the FNSB Parks and Recreation Department. Interdepartmental coordination will be a high priority, given the possibility portions of the Recreational area could be subject to the public-private partnership associated with planned residential development.


4. Transitional Area

This area is identified to provide flexibility in the integration of the recreational area, the two residential areas, and the access between this set of uses. Outdoor Recreation (OR) zoning will allow for public recreation use. Allowed uses in this area include:

a. Primary uses: 1. Open space 2. Access 3. Developed day use recreation facilities including trailheads

b. Secondary uses: 1. Overflow parking for recreational users 2. Shared parking for adjoining residential and commercial parcels by agreement

Final decisions on the types and arrangement of specific uses in this area would be made through the cooperative efforts of FNSB Land Management and Parks and Recreation staff, taking into consideration specific uses in proposals submitted for development.

b. Access Plan

With few exceptions, the rights-of-way within the existing North Shanly subdivision exist only as lines on the 70 year old plat. Figure 29 shows the currently existing condition of the streets within North Shanly, per FNSB Rural Services.

Platted Only Partially Complete, Substandard

Partially Complete, Within Standards

Hayes Avenue (North of Lutke)

Jarvis Avenue

(Hayes to Cordwood)

Hooper Avenue (Hayes to Block 6 Lot 4)

Vogel Avenue

(Hayes to Ivanof)

Lutke Avenue (Transfer Site to Cordwood)

Hooper Avenue

(Block 6, Lots 5-7)

Ivanof Drive (College to Vogel)

Jarvis Avenue

(Cordwood to College)

Hayes Avenue (College to Lutke)

Lutke Avenue

(Farmers Loop to Transfer Site)

Cordwood Drive (College to Hooper)

Figure 28: Streets in North Shanly

Figure 27: Transitional Area (NACTO.org)

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://nacto.org/wp-content/themes/sink_nacto/views/design-guides/retrofit/urban-street-design-guide/images/residential-shared-street/carousel//Portland_unknown.jpg&imgrefurl=http://nacto.org/publication/urban-street-design-guide/streets/residential-shared-street/&docid=H-SuMq8_MRcu_M&tbnid=75hZ-VPuKBvMlM:&w=562&h=371&bih=1009&biw=1920&ved=0ahUKEwiAtsLpmJXPAhVI3WMKHRbqBm0QMwh5KFEwUQ&iact=mrc&uact=8


The originally platted rights-of-way were located without taking into consideration the significant physical constraints on the site. The configuration in the original plat may be a barrier to highest and best use of the areas. It is understood that vacation of rights-of-way within the development areas, Vogel and Lutke, will face resistance in the platting process as code requires that a vacated roadway must be replaced with “other provisions…more beneficial to the public.”26 This could result in significant expense to the developer, so road vacations are not recommended within the development areas. Right-of-way vacations should be limited to the recreational and transitional areas.

Policies to guide the creation of an improved system for access are described below:

1. Reserve all of the existing entry points into the project area. One new entry to the north of the transfer site is recommended. This would serve to provide three main entrances to the recreational area:

a. Hayes Avenue b. Lutke Avenue to Palmer Street c. New Farmer’s Loop Rd North Entrance

26 FNSBC 17.32.030 (E)

Figure 29: Multi-Family Housing (Source Unknown)

Figure 30: Existing and Future Access


2. Establish rights-of-way within and extending outside the project area. Required connections in the revised plat are as follows:

a. Road and pedestrian pathways connecting the two development parcels. b. Lutke Avenue from Farmer’s Loop to College Road. c. Extension of Vogel Avenue to serve as a connection between the two developed parcels. d. Road and pedestrian pathways accessing the recreational area from Farmers Loop; this does

not require a link to the Vogel Avenue parcel. e. Three roadways within the project area to destinations to the north.

i. Cordwood Avenue ii. Ivanof Drive

iii. Hayes Avenue to connect with new Farmer’s Loop Rd North Entrance

3. Options for both vehicular and pedestrian traffic throughout the project areas.

4. Surplus rights-of-way require vacation through the platting process.

5. There are currently several bus stops and lines within walking distance of the development area. Coordination with FMATS and MAC (Metropolitan Area Commuter System) to monitor the adequacy of the existing facilities through and post development would be recommended.

6. Refer to the College Road Corridor Study and the Non-Motorized Transportation Plans to ensure well-planned traffic flows.

c. Residential Development Standards for this Project

Development standards for the housing and limited commercial projects allowed under this plan are presented below. By design, these standards provide a balance point between two objectives: ensuring quality development and allowing flexibility and creativity in responding to market opportunities. These standards will be used as a reference point for reviewing and selecting development proposals for these sites.

1. Permitted multi-family housing types a. Multiplex style units (triplex and larger) b. Stacked flats c. Apartments

2. Housing types not permitted a. Duplex units b. Traditional single family detached homes

3. Rental housing is required 4. Other housing requirements

a. Not more than 29 units per acre or building (proposed zoning will require 1500 sf lot area per unit)

b. Unit sizes – allow small units (500 SF/unit) c. Unit mix – no floorplan shall account for more than 30% of all units d. Building height not to exceed 60 feet (in MFO zoned areas)


5. Parking standards a. Minimum of 1.25 spaces/unit b. A plan for limited guest parking on street or on-site c. Options for shared parking with adjoining uses d. Adequate snow storage required separate from parking

6. Road/circulation a. Safe, attractive options to walk or bike within the development b. Convenient pedestrian and cycling access

i. Adjoining College Road commercial district ii. North Shanly recreational area

7. Building and site design standards a. Superior energy efficiency

i. 5 Star Plus per AHFC rules required b. Superior sound separation

i. Between adjoining, attached units ii. Sound Transmission Class > 50 per International Building Code 2012 rules

c. Well-articulated entryways i. Street or sidewalk facing

ii. Create a sense of care and active occupancy d. Design elements that help provide a sense of separate units, for example:

i. Variations in façade forms or depths ii. Variation in color

e. Building and site design to avoid a strong sense of monotony through a variety of means, for example: i. Screening landscaping

ii. Varying the alignment of buildings relative to one another iii. Varying building forms and mediums

f. Proposals that include superior collaboration will be viewed favorably: i. Seeking Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification for homes

or neighborhood development ii. Implementing technologies in partnership with the Cold Climate Housing Research

Center (CCHRC) iii. Implementing Winter City Design Features - such as those established by the City of

Edmonton’s Sustainable Development Department, 201627 8. Transitional area

a. Buffer existing residential area through a combination of setbacks and revegetation b. Provide an opportunity for shared parking with the development areas

27 www.edmonton.ca/city_government/initiatives_innovation/winter-design-guidelines.aspx


d. Zoning Changes

Currently, the Borough’s land holdings in the Development Area are zoned RA-5. Specific zoning changes and recommended special limitations are presented below:

1. The transfer site requires no rezoning and shall remain zoned RA-5 2. The recreational area will be rezoned to Outdoor Recreation (OR) which will accommodate a

wide range of possible future uses but be restrictive enough to maintain the area’s non-commercial status.

3. The Vogel multi-family parcel should be rezoned to Multiple-Family Residential/Professional Office District (MFO) with special limitations to follow the directions outlined in design standards of the Plan. a. No duplex or single family permitted b. Parking standards require a minimum of 1.25 spaces per unit c. Building height is unlimited in zoning, but restricted in this Plan’s standards to no more than

60 feet d. Setback requirements for MFO

i. Front yard shall not be less than 20 feet ii. Side yard shall not be less than 10 feet

iii. Rear yard shall not be less than 20 feet28

28 FNSBC 18.56.030

Figure 31: Existing Zoning


4. The Lutke parcel should be rezoned to Light Commercial District (LC). a. Permitted uses include those also found in SF-20, SF-10, SF-5, TF, MF and MFO Districts. b. Parking standards required shall be based on use as required by Title 18 c. Buildings may exceed 5,000 square feet in gross floor area. d. Structures shall not exceed 25’ in height e. Setback requirements for LC

i. Front yards shall not be less than 20 feet ii. Side and rear yards shall not be required except when abutting other zoning types.29

5. Transitional area should be rezoned to Outdoor Recreation (OR).

e. Vacation of Lot Lines and Right of Way

North Shanly was originally platted with many small residential lots. To carry out the objectives of this plan the majority of lot lines and roads in the recreational and transitional areas may need to be vacated. It is understood that per square foot market value is higher the smaller the lot size. It is beneficial for the developer to acquire the development areas with the current configuration of rights-of-way and lot lines. This will maximize the value of the parcels as capital assets in obtaining financing for development.

FNSB Code 18.96.020 (B) allows for two lots to be used as one so long as the adjoining lots are under common ownership. This would allow a development to proceed without vacation of lot lines depending upon the configuration of the lots and infrastructure.

Right-of-way vacation may be desirable of portions within the Vogel parcel to maximize buildable 29 FNSBC 18.60.030

Figure 32: Anticipated Zoning


area. Any vacation will require that either the area proposed for vacation is no longer practical or that other provisions have been made which are more beneficial to the public. Those provisions, or alternate right-of-ways, are often required to be constructed, even if the vacated area was not constructed itself.

The developer of the properties will be responsible for any desired right-of-way vacation action within the development areas; however, these will be strongly discouraged by Land Management should there be reasonable site plan alternatives that leave platted right-of-ways in place.

Land Management will work with Parks & Recreation and Community Planning to address vacations within the recreational area.

f. Improvement to Utilities and Roads

Among the assets of this project is the proximity to existing utilities. Utility connections to and within the project area are to be the responsibility of the developer (See Figures 13 & 14 on page 14).

1. Currently, Golden Valley Electric Association infrastructure adjoins the project area, and the easiest connections into the project area will likely be from Lutke or Cordwood.

2. Sewer & Water

a. The existing sewer lines in the North Shanly neighborhood adjoin the Borough’s parcels. Most direct connections will likely be from Lutke Ave, Cordwood or Ivanoff.

b. The water lines in North Shanly run in the same general areas as the sewer routes.

c. There are hydrants for fire control along Lutke Avenue, but additional hydrants would be required in the recreational area and MFO/LC areas.

Figure 33: Proposed Vacations in Open Space/Park Area


3. Roads

a. Increased traffic in the area may require additional traffic control mechanisms, such as stop signs, cross walks, traffic lights, etc. A Traffic Impact Analysis should be completed during the platting process.

b. Work with Borough Public Works, FMATS, Rural Services/Road Service Area and the State Department of Transportation.

4. The area is served by multiple types of internet service, including DSL, cable, fiber, fixed wireless and satellite internet providers.

5. Cable service is provided by several wired and satellite providers.

g. Coordination with Adjacent Land Owners

The University properties on the NE corner of College Rd and Farmers Loop Rd were acquired specifically for commercial investment, and they are unencumbered by the limitations on uses common on UA Lands. With approximately 5 acres, this hard corner could physically support a small grocery store, restaurants, or retail shops.

The University properties to the north of the North Shanly properties also have development potential. The UA parcels include substantial areas of more developable land, large enough to accommodate uses that would not fit on but could complement the Development Areas. These might include uses such as a hotel/conference center concept, a large grocery or business incubator complex. Some of the lands to the north are leased through 2022 to Great Northwest.

As details evolve from developers’ specific plans, Land Management staff will coordinate with adjoining land owners, to the degree practical and mutually beneficial. Examples of such coordination include connecting trails and open space uses for benefit of existing businesses, upgrading underdeveloped roads, and exploring options for shared parking.

Land Management is currently working with the Cordwood Drive property owner surrounded by development space on a request to purchase a small amount of land adjoining them that would provide a buffer from any adverse consequences of development. The Parks & Recreation Commission expressed their support of this action in their May 21, 2018 meeting.

7) IMPLEMENTATION

Borough Land Management staff will solicit interest from the development community, and working in partnership with the selected developer, move forward with the planned projects. The FNSB Parks and Recreation Department will assist in planning improvements on the Recreational parcel and develop specific plans for appropriate improvements working with user groups, adjoining land owners, the general public and the developer.


The anticipated process for implementation of the Lutke and Vogel multi-family projects is as follows:

1. FNSB conducts a cost feasibility assessment based on the recommendations of this plan.

2. FNSB procures an appraisal for the sale parcels.

3. FNSB Assembly approves sale terms based on the area development plan, the cost feasibility assessment, and the property appraisal.

4. FNSB completes the rezoning of the Recreational and Transitional areas to Outdoor Recreation (OR), the Vogel parcel to Multi-Family/Professional Office (MFO) and the Lutke parcel to Light Commercial (LC).

5. FNSB completes a replat action to vacate rights-of-way and extemporaneous lot lines within the Recreational and Transitional areas (as needed).

6. FNSB prepares and issues a Request for Proposal (RFP) outlining the general terms of the sales agreement per the amended sale terms as approved by the Assembly. This will include: a. Demonstrated compliance of the goals and objectives of this plan including development

standards b. Schedule of completion c. Multiple options for development assistance from the Borough based on development

density 7. Developers respond to the RFP, offering

a. Purchase Price b. Concept plan(s) – narrative and visual c. Evidence of financial ability and applicable experience

8. FNSB selects a proposal. 9. FNSB prepares and executes a sales agreement, outlining all terms and conditions per the

selected RFP. 10. Developer, with FNSB as a co-applicant prepares, submits and obtains platting board approval of

a preliminary plat for the project area, including basic assumptions regarding locations and capacities of roads and other infrastructure, vacation of right of way and lot lines as desired.

11. FNSB conveys the sale parcels with deed restrictions and reversionary rights devised to guarantee development according to the terms of the sales agreement.

Figure 34: Multi-Family Housing (Source Unknown)


8) SITE PLAN – CONCEPTUAL ALTERNATIVES

The following pages present three illustrative, conceptual site plans for the project area. Also included are illustrative images of different styles and densities of multi-family housing.

The purpose of these concept plans is not to set out specific, required site development, or to define the architectural character of the eventual development. They are not intended to hinder the creative solutions needed to find a way to develop projects that are both high quality and respond to market realities. The concepts do illustrate a range of plausible approaches, working within the general framework of site characteristics and development standards in this plan. Density shown is not exactly correlative to the table on page 26, but provides a general idea of what a similar density could look like.

The sales agreement will include a more specific site plan, setting out in detail the locations and characteristics of new uses, access for vehicular and pedestrian circulation, utilities, parking, landscaping and other project features.

a. Lower Density Concept

Using densities found in existing multifamily projects in the area surrounding North Shanly as a framework, this Plan’s lowest density option is based on 16 units per acre – similar to an existing 5-plex found on the southern portion of Hayes Avenue in Shanly Homestead. The Lower Density Concept shown includes a total of 119 two bedroom units in a rowhouse format (buildings vary from 3 to 8 units) and rentable storage space totaling 6000 square feet in two buildings. The units are shown with an 18’x34’ unit footprint with approximately 1224 square feet in each unit.

Parking is abundant in this option with nearly 1.8 parking spaces per unit in the two Development Areas and shared parking within the Transitional Area.

b. Medium Density Concept

The Plan’s medium density concept results in roughly 22 units per acre. This is slightly lower than can be seen at JL Properties’ nearby Parkwest Apartments (27.75 units per acre). This concept plan includes 144 two bedroom units with 7200 sf of Commercial Retail space with excellent visibility off College Road. The residential units are a two up, two down prototype, although 4 buildings are shown with three up and three down on the concept plan.

Shared parking in the Transitional Area becomes an important consideration in a mixed use plan such as the one shown. This concept provides about 1.8 spaces per unit, with some of those spaces required for the commercial use. Each 200 square feet of retail floor space requires one parking space, so the needs spaces will vary depending on use and floor space. This plan shows 256 total parking spaces.


c. High Density Concept

Based on Multi-Family Office (MFO) zoning, the maximum density allowed calls for 1500 square feet per unit, or 29 units per acre. Woods Apartments at the corner of Ivanof and College Rd is an example of about 30 units per acre.

The concept shown has 30 units per acre in the Development Areas, slightly over the 29 allowed by zoning. A total of 201 units are shown, with 400 parking spaces or about 2 spaces for each unit. Shared parking with the Transitional Area could be eliminated, since only one space per unit is required.

Again, these concepts are provided to show a range of what is possible within some very basic parameters. Final designs will take into consideration numerous additional variables. The developers of North Shanly will be expected to bring their experience, creativity and business acumen to the project.

3. regional socioeconomic trends · 2018-07-07 · assessment, homes built during this period are...

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