3. cgg0912 emma white presentation
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2011 Census OutputsMaximising the utility of census data for the
widest possible set of users(The producer’s view)
Emma WhiteOffice for National Statistics
19 September 2012
Overview
• England and Wales 2011 Census• The story so far and how we got here• User engagement• Looking ahead• Benefits realisation
• UK 2011 Census
2011 Census
• 27 March 2011• England and Wales
• People, households, communal establishments• Characteristics
• Why are census data important?• Unique• Detailed information across England and Wales at low level of
geography• Change over time (output areas)• Value for money• Targeted record swapping
Data QualityResponse rate comparison: 2001 vs 2011
Processing
... scanned
180,000 sq fthigh secureprocessing
plant
Documentsprepared
... keyed &coded
Up to 40articulated lorriesper day at peak
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Target
Achieved
Data QualityCapture and coding accuracy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(%)
2001 Census
2011 Census
Data QualityItem non response
Further processing & estimation• Edit & imputation to “correct” & fill gaps• Match census and census coverage survey (CCS)
returns• Estimate numbers missed in each CCS sample area,
extrapolate for whole country & impute “missing”records
• Apply disclosure control methods• Quality assure the results
• Compare to various admin data sources: school census, CISElderly, CIS Children, Patient Register, MYEs
• System generated over 80,000 charts• Internal and external QA panels
Code of Practice
• National Statistics Code of Practice• The range of official statistics should meet the needs of users• Statistics should be produced, managed and disseminated to
high standards• Statistics should be well explained• Communication of statistical ideas
• What does this mean for ONS and 2011 Census?
User engagement
• Consultation• Questionnaire• Outputs• Workshops, formal consultation, working groups
• Messages• Comparable with 2001 – geography, format & presentation• Statistical disclosure control• Best fit• .csv• UK outputs• Micro and flow data• Alternative population bases
First release: population &household estimates• 16 July 2012• Single year of age by sex, England and Wales• Five year age by sex, LADs/UAs England and Wales• Household estimates• LA quality assurance information• Population 56.1m on 27 March 2011
• England 53.0m• Wales 3.1m• Females 28.5m (51 per cent)• Males 27.6m (49 per cent)
First release contd
• Growth• Population grew by 3.7m (7.1 per cent) since 2001• London region saw biggest growth, exceeds 8m• Largest number over 65s since 1801• Increased numbers in 20s• Increased number young children
• Three reasons for population change• 6.6m births, 5.0m deaths in period 2001 to 2011
– 45 per cent of the increase• 2.1m is migration: international and internal
– 55 per cent of the increase• Some births are an indirect effect of migration
First release contd
• 24 September 2012• 2011 Census - Population and Household Estimates for
England and Wales - Unrounded Figures for the DataPublished 16 July 2012
• 2011 Census - Population and Household Estimates forWales - Unrounded Figures for the Data Published 16July 2012
Population growth rate of EU27 countries2001 to 2011
Age structure compared2011 vs 2001 contd
45035025015050501502503504500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100+
population (thousands)
20112001 agedon 10 years
Males Females
2011 age structure2001 overlaidAged on 10 years
Usual residents aged 65 and over bylocal authority
Regional growth since 2001
2%
4%
6% 8%6%
8%
12%8%
7%
5%
012
3456789
2001 2011 Percentage change
Usual residents(millions)
Local authority population growthsince 2001
Local authority Percentagechange %
Local authority Percentagechange %
Tower Hamlets 26 Manchester 19Newham 23 Milton Keynes 17Hackney 19 Leicester 17Hounslow 18 Peterborough 17Greenwich 17 Slough 16
Waltham Forest 16 Swindon 16Brent 15 South Derbyshire 16Redbridge 15 Boston 16Haringey 15 South Holland 15Islington 15 Uttlesford 15
London Rest of England & Wales
Average household size
4.34.1
3.7
3.23.0 2.9
2.72.4 2.4 2.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Average residents per household
Second release:quick & key statistics
• November 2012 to February 2013• Univariate outputs on existing and new topics• Postcode estimates• Phased by geography
• OA hierarchy, wards• Parliamentary constituencies, parishes• Other
Second release contd• Unprecedented detail at output area geography
40 households, 100 people• Comparability guidance• Statistical bulletin• Short stories• Data visualisation
Third & fourth releases:local & detailed characteristics
• Third releaseLocal characteristics (equivalent to 2001 CAS)• March to June 2013
– Contents, comparability, data visualisation– Less detail, lower geography
• Fourth releaseDetailed characteristics (equivalent to 2001 Standard)• July to October 2013
– Contents, comparability, data visualisation– More detail, higher geography
Subsequent releases:specialist products• Micro data
1. SecureIndividual Controlled Access Microdata Sample (CAMS)Household CAMS
2. SafeguardedIndividual Samples of Anonymised Records (SAR)Household SAR
3. Public UseIndividual SARIndividual Test Dataset
• Flow data• Small populations
• Alternative population bases• Short term residents• Workplace• Workday• Out of term• Majority of time
• Commissioned tables• Flexible tables
Subsequent releases:specialist products contd
Getting the data usedThe big picture
• Extend reach ofONS data
• Enable andencourage re-use– derive full valuefrom the data
• Open data• Understand
audiences anduser needs
• Population and household estimates July 2012– ONS website
• Key and quick statistics from November 2012– Neighbourhood statistics website, NeSS
– Over ten times as many concurrent users as before– Signposted from the ONS landing page
– NOMIS website– www.nomisweb.co.uk
– Bulk supply for those who want the complete set of data– Re-sellers
• Local and detailed characteristics from March 2013– ONS website
• As data explorer and API come online, census datawill make increasing use of added functionality
How to get census results
2011 Census dissemination overview
Maximising the benefits• Identify policy areas that census data can support• Engage government departments to exploit census results• Ensure easy access to data – accessible tools and systems• Fully utilise all the census data – eg new questions, cross-
classifications• Identify new users – make outputs interesting and meaningful to ‘me’,
media stories, case studies• Add value by ensuring that the statistics are enhanced eg analysis,
data visualisation• Deliver innovation where appropriate• Encourage use through initiatives, competitions, media• Develop partnerships with external users who can add
value and reach• Benefit realisation quantification
Analysis plans
• Rolling series of analytical products in conjunction withother ONS specialists
• Analytical centre for census (ACC)
Maximising the benefits contd• census.ac.uk, take census data in bulk and create an
area of the site to allow users to access figures
Maximising the benefits contd• DirectGov, promoting census outputs to the general
public and signposting to the ONS site
UK harmonisation• Northern Ireland (NISRA) first release 16 July 2012
• 1,180,900 (+7%)• Phase 2, 19 September 2012
• Scotland (NRS) first release December 2012• UK (ONS) first release as soon as figures available• NISRA & NRS online prospectus• Harmonisation guidance• Monthly two day harmonisation workshops
• Agreement on naming convention, numbering, titles, content,metadata, derived variables
• UKCHC• UKCC
UK database
• Agreement in place for single unit record UK database• Technical challenges• Legal gateways to be established• Eurostat 31 March 2014
Prospectus and contact details
• Online dynamic prospectus 26 March 2012• Describes plans and products• Timetable updated on an ongoing basis• Table layouts and classifications• Glossary
• Sign up for email alerts via census pageswww.ons.gov.uk
