2a) what effects will climate change have?urbanwise.london/climatechange/images/sec2.pdf · 2017....

Climate Change Pack | Section Two | 29

2a) What effects will climate change have?

This section provides an introduction and background to the range of effects that have been predicted due to climate change. The causal links will be explained to increase the class’ understanding of the processes. The expected geographical distribution of the different effects will also be explored.

Teacher’s Notes 3: Predicting the effects explains in more detail on how scientists have decided on the effects of climate change.

WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS GOING TO BE?It is predicted that climate change will have a number of very different effects. Three of the most important and far-reaching are drought, storms and hurricanes and sea level rise.

Suggested activities:

Use • Resource 8: What effects will climate change have? to introduce the range of effects that have been predicted.

Resource 9: Cause and Effec• t is designed to investigate the causal processes behind the three main effects, and explain how they are linked to global warming.

Info Sheet 4: Effects Explaine• d provides a more detailed explanation to accompany Resources 8 and 9.

Do some independent research about droughts, storms and •hurricanes and sea level rise. See if the students can find any examples of the effects, and if they are thought to be linked to climate change. A list of useful websites is provided in the Additional Information section.

HOW WILL DIFFERENT PLACES BE AFFECTED?Different areas of the world will be affected by climate change in different ways, and to a different extent. The global effects of climate change are explored in more detail in Section 2c.


Use • Resource 10: Around the World with an atlas to map the extent of the different effects.

Do some independent research about the effects of climate •change around the world.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE: Children develop an understanding of the range of effects of climate change, and the link to global warming.

CURRICULUM LINKS:Citizenship 2a, 4b. Geography 2f, 3e, 4b, 5a, 6e, 7a, 7b, ICT 1a

30 | Section Two | Climate Change Pack

Teacher’s Notes 3Predicting the effects

The effects of climate change that are described in this section are based on the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, and subsequent newspaper articles.

How are the predictions made?Climate change scientists use computer models of the Earth’s atmospheric and weather systems to make their predictions. This is relatively similar to the process used by the Met Office to forecast the weather.

The models work by simulating the Earth’s reaction to different levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. The data is input and processed by the computer, which calculates the expected change in temperature and precipitation levels. There are separate models that have been created to simulate the reaction of the ice sheets, or vegetation distribution, or ocean circulation to these changes in temperature and precipitation. The models can be combined to create an Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM). These are the most complex, but most accurate, computer models which are used to make climate change predictions.

INPUT OUTPUT

How accurate are the predictions?There is a lot of uncertainty and variance in climate change predictions. This is mainly because of:

Different predicted levels of greenhouse gas levels, dependent on •which future scenario is used.

Different structure and sensitivity of the computer models.•

For example, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report predicts between the extremes of 0.4°C and 6.4°C temperature change by 2100 because of differences in the factors listed above. The data provided in this section of the pack is the scientists best estimates which tends to fall in the centre of the range, although occasionally the upper extremes are mentioned – for example, with respect to sea level rise.

Greenhouse Gas Levels

Model Simulation is

run

Predicted changes in temperature and

precipitation


Resource 8

in other places there will be more rain and storms.

so as you can see, there will be lots of different effects happening all over the world.

In some places it will get hotter and drier. There will be less water to drink and grow food with.

the seas will rise because of melting ice at the north and south poles. this will cause floods.


Resource 9Cause and Effect

Global warming will cause lots of different changes to happen to the environment. These will have a big effect on people’s lives.

Fill in the gaps in the chains below to see some of the effects which global warming will have. Use the sentence bank and Info Sheet 4 to help you.

CAUSE

EFFECT

Hotter Temperatures

Can’t grow as many crops

Not enough food for everyone


CAUSE

EFFECT

More evaporation

More rain and storms

Damage to houses and buildings


CAUSE EFFECT

Global Warming

Extinction of animals living there, like Polar Bears and

Penguins

Coastal and low-lying areas are permanently flooded


Increase in flooding A Warmer World

People have to move away Costs lots of money to repair

Less rainfall Sea Level Rise

Melting of ice at the Poles

Sentence bank


Info Sheet 4Climate Change: Effects Explained

Climate Change will have lots of different effects on the environment, people and animals. Different parts of the world will experience different things.

DroughtsGlobal warming will make it hotter and drier in many parts of the world, like Africa, Australia and Southern Europe. There will be less rain and more evaporation of water. This is known as a drought. There won’t be enough water for people and animals to drink, or to grow food. People will be forced to move elsewhere, or risk a famine.

StormsAs the world’s temperature increases, the oceans will get warmer too. This will mean that there will be more evaporation. Large storms clouds will form over the oceans which could turn into hurricanes. Places like North America, the Caribbean and East Africa will experience more rain and bad weather due to climate change. Storms and hurricanes cause lots of damage to houses, buildings, trees, roads and crops. People might get hurt or killed in the storms, and it will cost a lot of money to repair.

Sea Level RiseThe ice caps at the North and South Poles stores lots of water. Hotter temperatures will mean that this ice will melt and more water will go into the sea. If all the ice from the North Pole and Greenland melted there would be a 7-metre rise in sea level. If all the ice melted at the North and South poles there would be a 65-metre rise in sea level. Low and coastal areas would get flooded. Lots of people live in these places, so they would have to move somewhere else. Many animals like polar bears, penguins and seals would become extinct, or nearly extinct, without the ice at the poles, .


Resource 10Around the World

Different parts of the world will experience different effects of climate change.

The table below lists some of the main effects of climate change, and where they are going to happen.

EFFECT WHERE COLOUR KEYDrought Australia, India, Southern Europe,

Africa and the Middle East

Storms and Hurricanes Caribbean, USA and Central America

Floods (Sea Level Rise) Bangladesh, Europe and the UK

Extinction of plants and animals

South America (Amazon), Canada, Greenland and the Russian Arctic, Antarctica

Create a key for the different effects, and colour in the world map to show where they are going to happen. Use an atlas to help you.


World Map


2b) How will my local area be affected?This section focuses on the predicted effects of climate change in Hammersmith and Fulham. It also explores the regional effects for London and the UK.

THE EFFECT ON HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAMThe most serious effect of climate change for Hammersmith and Fulham will be sea level rise and its associated economic and social impacts. By 2100 it is predicted the global sea levels will rise by 0.5 - 1.0 metres, although a rise of up to 7 metres has been predicted if the whole of the Greenland ice sheet melts.


A map of the local area has been provided in • Resource 11: Flood Map. This shows the extent of flooding for a 5 metre, 7 metre and 10 metre rise in sea levels.

An example of some historic flooding is provided in • Resource 12: Newspaper Article.

The photos in • Resource 13: Photos of H&F show local landmarks after a 5 metre rise in sea level. These can be used to gain an emotional response.

Get the students to write a newspaper article about a possible •flood event in Hammersmith and Fulham in the future.

THE EFFECT ON LONDON AND THE UKThe rest of the UK and London will suffer from sea level rise, but also the issues of more storms, drought and water shortages.


Info Sheet 5: UK Effect• s outlines some of the expected effects of climate change, and their further impacts.

Get the class to research recent events in the UK that could have •caused by climate change.

London is protected from flooding by the Thames Barrier. Some •information about the barrier, and exercises about it are provided in Info Sheet 6: Thames Barrier and Resource 14: The Thames Barrier. Contact details for the Thames Barrier Information and Learning Centre can be found in the Additional Information section.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE: Children explore the effects of climate change in Hammersmith and Fulham, London and the rest of the UK.

CURRICULUM LINKS: English En2 5c, 9c En3 1a, 1c, 1d, 9b, 12, Geography 2a, 2c, 3e, 4b, 5a, 6e, 7a, History 7


Resource 11Flood Map of H&F

The Flood Map shows which areas in Hammersmith and Fulham would be flooded after different amounts of sea level rise – 5 metres, 7 metres and 10 metres.

1. Using a map if necessary, find your school and mark it on the flood map.

2. Colour in all the different height zones.

What amount of sea level rise would it take to affect your school?

What effects would a 5 metre rise in sea level have?

At the moment Hammersmith is protected by an Embankment. This is 2 metres higher than an average high tide. This photo shows Hammersmith at high tide.


Resource 11: Flood Map

5m

5m

5m

7m

7m

7 10m

10m

10m

10m

10m

20m

30m

40m

Shepherds Bush Green

Fulham Broadway

Hammersmith Broadway


Resource 12Newspaper Article

This article is taken from the West London Observer on Friday 13th January 1928. On the night of Friday 6th January 1928 a north-westerly strong gale led to high water levels on the River Thames and the embankments were overtopped.

THAMES FLOOD DISASTER

TORRENT SWEEPS OVER RIVER BANKS

SLEEPERS DROWNED IN BASEMENTS

HOMES RUINED – BRAVE RESCUE WORK

YOUNG HEROINE OF THE FLOODS

HAMMERSMITH FLOOD SCENES

The extent of the damage and suffering caused by the flooding in the

Hammersmith area was appalling and to many poor families the terrible experience

must spell ruin. When the raging torrent burst over the banks like a tidal wave at

about 1 a.m. on Saturday morning it carried away part of the river wall close to

Hammersmith Bridge, leaving a gap of about 40 yards, whilst further along at the

Upper Mall, nearly opposite Rivercourt Road, another part of the wall collapsed.

KING STREET TWO FEET UNDER WATER

Tremendous damage was caused by the flood tide which rushed down the Creek,

overflowing the wharf and inundating a part of King Street to a depth of nearly

two feet. Shopkeepers in the vicinity suffered a big loss, the water rushing across

King Street between Dalling Road and Holcombe Street flooding shop premises

on both sides of the road. All traffic was held up for a considerable time and the

police, wading almost knee deep in water, went round knocking at the premises to

warn the occupants.

SERVANT GIRLS DROWNED

Two servant girls were trapped without hope of rescue at Rivercourt, a large

house on the bank at Upper Mall, a short distance from where the river wall had

collapsed. The young women slept in a semi-basement room. The grim discovery

was not made until the butler arrived shortly after 7am on Saturday.

FURNITURE SWEPT AWAY BY FLOOD

Some of the people living in the cottages round by The Creek had their furniture

swept away by the flood. At No. 1 Upper Mall, it was reported that every article

of furniture except a table and a chest of drawers had vanished from the rooms

downstairs.

A YOUNG HEROINE

Miss Madge Franckeiss showed wonderful gallantry in rescuing a woman and a boy

from a flat in Hurlingham Court Mansions, Fulham. The Lord Mayor of London

will make a presentation at Mansion House for her bravery in saving several lives by

swimming in the flooded basements and rescuing the occupants.


Resource 13

Shepherds Bush Green

King Street


Info Sheet 5UK Effects

Scientists have used computers to predict what might happen in the UK under climate change.

These are some of the changes that they think will happen by 2100.

More Rainfall and StormsThere will be more rain over the whole of the UK in the winter, but especially in the North and West. More rain will cause floods, especially in places that are close to rivers. Floods cause a lot of damage to people’s property, and they may have to leave their houses. It will cost a lot of money to repair the damage.

Hotter TemperaturesThe summers will become hotter, especially in the South and East of the UK, by about 3°C. There will be less water available, and so there might be a drought. It will be harder for farmers to grow crops, and drinking water will have to be rationed.

Extinction of Plants and AnimalsAs the climate changes, some plants and animals will become extinct because they can’t live in the new climate. In the cold areas of Scotland, some types of birds, plants and insects will die out. In the South, it is expected that new species will arrive from Europe.

Sea Level RiseLow-lying areas, especially in the East of the UK, will be permanently flooded by sea level rise. People will have to move from their houses to other, higher places which will become more crowded. Farm-land will also be flooded, so we won’t be able to grow as much food. Other places, like power stations, hospitals, ports and airports might also be affected.


Info Sheet 6The Thames Barrier

London is protected from flooding by the Thames Barrier. It was built after floods in 1953 caused 300 deaths.

The barrier protects London from surge tides. These happen when a high tide combines with bad weather and strong winds, which blow sea water up the River Thames.

The Thames Barrier has nine piers which go across the river. These are the silver buildings in the photo on the left.

Between the piers there are gates which normally rest on the bottom of the river. When a surge tide is predicted, the gates are raised up to block the water and protect London from flooding. In the picture below you can see that one of the gates is raised.

The Thames Barrier cost £530 million to build. It was first used in February 1983. In the 1980s and 1990s, the barrier was used on average 3 times a year. Since 2000 it has been used on average 5 times a year. It is predicted that by 2030, the barrier will have to be raised 30 times a year to protect London from floods. This is because of sea level rise.

In 2030, a new barrier will have to built to continue to protect London from sea level rise and flooding.

Pier

Gate


Resource 14The Thames Barrier

1. Label the photo of the Thames Barrier below:

2. What does the barrier protect London from?

3. What three things combine to cause a surge tide?

River

1)

2)

3)


4. The gates of the Thames Barrier are 20 metres high.

The average high tide in London is 15 metres high.

a. How much will sea level have to rise for the barrier not to work any more? metres.

b. How much is sea level predicted to rise by 2100? Between and metres.

5. List some of the effects that a flood in London might have.

6. The Thames barrier cost £530 million.

Do you think this is good value for money? Why?


2c) How will other places be affected?

This section focuses in more detail on the global effects of climate change. The range and distribution of the effects is studied and the variety of attitudes to climate change across the world is also explored.


Refer back to • Resource 10: Around the World to revise the effects of climate change that are predicted for different parts of the world.

Resource 15: Letters from Around the Worl• d describes these effects through letters from children describing the impact of climate change. There is the opportunity at the end for students to write their own letter about the UK in 2030.

Conduct a role play exercise based around a meeting of •different countries to discuss climate change. Teacher’s Notes 4: International Conference gives ideas and guidance for this exercise.

Again, get the children to research and discuss recent global •events that could be linked to climate change.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE: Children learn about the global effects of climate change, and empathise with people in other places.

CURRICULUM LINKS: Citizenship 1a, 2a, 2j, 4b English En1 1a, 1e, 2a, 2b, 2e, 3a, 3c, 3d, 3e, 4b, 11a, En3 1a, 1c, 1d, 9a, 9b, 12 Geography 1d, 1e, 2f, 3e, 3g, 5a, 7a, ICT 1a


Resource 15Stories from Around the World

Here are some letters written by children in the year 2030. They are telling about how climate change has affected their lives.

Story One – Chad, Africa

Hello, my name is Muhammad. I am 10 years old and I live in

the country of Chad in Africa, near the border with Nigeria.

Where I live there used to be a very large lake called Lake Chad.

It started to dry up at the end of the 20th Century and it had

completely disappeared by 2020, the year that I was born.

My grandfather lived in the same village as I do now. The

village used to be on the shores of Lake Chad, and he was a

fisherman. But when the lake started to dry up there weren’t

enough fish for him to make a living. So he became a farmer,

and used the water from the lake for his crops. He grew maize,

rice, okra, sweet potatoes and cassava.

My father is also a farmer, but now that the lake has dried up

there isn’t enough water to grow many crops. He says there is

much less rain now than when he was a boy and he is worried

that soon the crops will fail and we won’t have anything to eat. If

that happens we will have to move to the city and try and make

a living there.

I am very worried about the future. I know that these changes

have happened because of global warming. By the time I am an

adult, my village will have become part of the Sahara desert and

I will no longer be able to live here.


Story Two – Jamaica, Caribbean

Hello, my name is Portia. I am 12 years old and I live in

Kingston, the capital of the island of Jamaica in the Caribbean.

It is July at the moment and we are beginning to prepare for

this year’s hurricane season. Every year between August and

November all of the Caribbean, as well as the USA and Central

America, is threatened by hurricanes. These are huge storms,

with very strong winds, lots of rain and storm surges.

My grandmother tells me that every year for the last 30 years,

there have been more hurricanes and they have become

stronger. She says that there only used to be 8 or 9 hurricanes

in the whole Caribbean, and that very few were stronger than

Category 3.

Last year, we were hit by a Category 5 hurricane. These are

the strongest, with wind speeds higher than 155 miles per

hour. Our house was badly damaged as part of our roof blew

away and some of our walls collapsed. We were hiding in our

basement shelter so no-one from my family was hurt. One

of friends from school was killed when part of her house

collapsed. People who lived by the sea had their houses flooded

and many have moved away.

It is predicted that we might have another category 5 hurricane

this year. The hurricanes are getting worse because of climate

change. I am worried that this year some more of my friends

might be killed, or our house will be damaged again. My father

says we cannot afford to repair it again.


Story Three – Bangladesh

Hello, my name is Mostafa. I am 9 years old and I live in Dhaka

in Bangladesh.

My family moved to Dhaka from the island of Char Bangla in

2018. The island is now totally flooded because of sea level

rise. Lots of the people my family knew from the island now

live in Dhaka, as well as many other families who are from the

coast originally. About 2 million people have had to leave their

homes so far because of sea level rise. I have been told that by

2100 about 17 million people in Bangladesh will have had their

homes and land flooded by the sea.

As well as the rise in sea level, Bangladesh is being flooded

more often by the large rivers that flow through our country, but

start in the Himalayas. The snow and ice in the mountains are

melting because of warmer temperatures. This is because of

global warming.

I think that by the time I am an old man, most of Bangladesh

will be under water and I will be a refugee living in another

country.


Now it’s your chance to write back to one of the children. Tell them about how London has been affected by climate change, and what you’re worried about.

Story Four – UK

Hello, my name is .

I am years old and I live in in the UK.


Teacher’s Notes 4International Conference

A role-play exercise based on the theme of an International Conference on Climate Change will help explore the different roles and opinions of different countries relating to climate change.

Split the class into small groups. Each group will represent a different country.

Some suggested countries are:

India•

Kenya•

UK•

Canada•

Tuvalu•

Brazil•

Give each group the chance to do some internet research on the country’s background and their opinions on climate change.

Key questions to be considered are:

Does your country produce many greenhouse gases?1.

What is the main way your country will be affected by climate 2. change?

Is your country doing anything to tackle climate change?3.

Who do you think is to blame for climate change?4.

What do you think should be done to tackle climate change?5.

At the conference, each ‘country’ should present its case, and encouraged to challenge and question others.

2a) what effects will climate change have?urbanwise.london/climatechange/images/sec2.pdf · 2017....

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