28th ciret conference, rome, september 19- 23, 2006 1 we differ. are we different? (comparing...

28th CIRET Conference, Rome, September28th CIRET Conference, Rome, September 19-23, 2006 19-23, 2006

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We Differ. We Differ. Are We Different?Are We Different?

(Comparing Consumer (Comparing Consumer Sentiments in Russia, Europe, Sentiments in Russia, Europe,

and USA)and USA)

Dilyara Ibragimova, Sergey Nikolaenko

28th CIRET Conference, Rome, September 19-23, 2006

2

ObjectivesObjectives

Transition of Russian economy after perestroika are Transition of Russian economy after perestroika are reflected in the people’s minds, their sentiments, reflected in the people’s minds, their sentiments,

perceptions, estimates and in their behavior.perceptions, estimates and in their behavior.What changes are taking place in the people’s What changes are taking place in the people’s

estimates? What are they impacted by and how? To estimates? What are they impacted by and how? To what extent do the people’s evaluations correspond to what extent do the people’s evaluations correspond to

the consumers’ behavior “standards” in developed the consumers’ behavior “standards” in developed countries? What are the specific andcountries? What are the specific and common features common features of the Russian society progression towards the market of the Russian society progression towards the market

reality?reality?

Goal: Goal: To reveal of similar and specific patterns of To reveal of similar and specific patterns of consumer behavior in Russia by comparison with other consumer behavior in Russia by comparison with other

countries.countries.


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Main issues:Main issues:

► General changes in consumer General changes in consumer sentiments in 1993-2005sentiments in 1993-2005

►Consumer Sentiments of Various Consumer Sentiments of Various Demographic and Economic GroupsDemographic and Economic Groups

►Comparing Inter-Element Correlations Comparing Inter-Element Correlations of CSI Componentsof CSI Components


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Data sources:Data sources:

► Primary data of consumer surveys in RussiaPrimary data of consumer surveys in Russia conducted by conducted by uniform methodology since 1993. Surveys are conducted once in uniform methodology since 1993. Surveys are conducted once in 2 months by the all-Russian representative sample (N=2100), 2 months by the all-Russian representative sample (N=2100), the overall massive - > 100000 respondents.the overall massive - > 100000 respondents.

►Time series of CSITime series of CSI in European countries and the USA. in European countries and the USA.

USA:USA: data from the Survey Research Center at the data from the Survey Research Center at the University of University of MichiganMichigan

EuropeEurope:: information about relevant indices information about relevant indices accumulated by OECD accumulated by OECD and EC within the framework and EC within the framework of creating a system of of creating a system of leading indicators for leading indicators for individual country.individual country.

►Official statistical and macroeconomic data.Official statistical and macroeconomic data.


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CSI Dynamics in 1993-2005: CSI Dynamics in 1993-2005: Proportion of optimists and pessimistsProportion of optimists and pessimists

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Dec

-92

Dec

-93

Dec

-94

Dec

-95

Dec

-96

Dec

-97

Dec

-98

Dec

-99

Dec

-00

Dec

-01

Dec

-02

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

CSI (left axes)

Average share of optimists on five questions, % (right axes)

Average share of pessimists on five questions, % (right axes)


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CSI Dynamics in 1993-2005: CSI Dynamics in 1993-2005: Comparison of the USA and Russia Comparison of the USA and Russia

(annual average values)(annual average values)

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Russia-CSI USA-CSI


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Dynamics of the Current Index and Expected Dynamics of the Current Index and Expected IndexIndex

in 1993-2005 (average annual values)in 1993-2005 (average annual values)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Current Index CSI Expected Index

а) Russia b) USA

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Current Index CSI Expected Index


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CSI Dynamics Depending of the Respondent’s CSI Dynamics Depending of the Respondent’s GenderGender

а) Russia b) USA

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05

Male Female

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05

Male Female


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Gap in the levels of the CSI components between “rich” (9-10 deciles) and “poor” (1-2 deciles):

comparison of Russia (2000-2004) and the USA (1996-2000)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

CSI

Current Personal Finances

Expected PersonalFinances

One-year EconomicOutlook

Five-year EconomicOutlook

Buying Conditions

Russia USA


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Age and Income Profile of the Respondents, %Age and Income Profile of the Respondents, %

а) Russia b) USA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

lowest second third fourth highest

Income distribution - quintiles

16-34

35-54

55+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

lowest second third fourth highest

Income distribution - quintiles

15-34

35-54

55+


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Dynamics of Buying Conditions Index by Age Dynamics of Buying Conditions Index by Age GroupsGroups

а) Russia b) USA

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

16-29 30-54 55+

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

18-34 35-54 55+


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