28 march 2014 universal robina corporation share price ......monde nissin corporation lucky me, sky...

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DISCLAIMER: This document was prepared by The First Resources Management & Securities Corp. (FR) for information purposes only. It is not to be considered as an offer to sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained therein is accurate and complete, FR makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the reliance on this information. This document cannot be reproduced in whole or in part by the recipient or another person, nor should it be redistributed by the person or the company to whom it was first addressed. All recipients are urged to make their own assessment as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. All information and opinions are subject to change without prior notice. 28 March 2014 Universal Robina Corporation (URC) Rating: HOLD We are initiating coverage of URC with a Hold rating URC is one of the Philippine’s largest branded food product company, a market leader in snacks, candies, chocolates, canned beans, and ready to drink tea with a dominant position in the biscuits, cup noodle, and coffee business. The company has significant investments in the ASEAN region including China and Hong-Kong as it solidifies its drive to become a major player in South East Asia in light of the ASEAN integration. This puts the company in a position to improve its margins as it takes advantage of new markets through a regional alignment of its facilities which is seen as the main driver for growth moving forward. Three stage plan to double bottom line in 5 to 6 years The company is set to double its net income by 2018 or 2019 through the build-up of scale here in the Philippine market, regional alignment of its ASEAN facilities, and its push towards higher priced segment products. Drive into Power sector The company has taken advantage of the government incentive to further utilize the inputs the company gets from their sugar milling business with the construction of a 2 billion 40MW Biomass-fired generation facility and 1 billion Fuel grade ethanol plant. Intrinsic value of ₱ 94.95 We valued URC using the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Model. FORECASTS (IN PHP M) Year End Dec 31 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Revenues 57,720 67,168 71,202 80,995 90,639 Operating Income 19,670 19,564 21,688 26,614 28,254 EBITDA 10,959 10,180 11,269 13,901 14,565 Core Income 8,138 5,026 8,185 10,117 8,938 Equity Research Report SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE Universal Robina Corporation vs. PSEi Source: Bloomberg KEY DATA Ticker URC Sector CONSUMER Price (3-28-2014) 137.00 Current Price Target 94.95 Downside Potential 44% 52-Week Range 102.90 – 143.00 Market Cap (in PHP) 298,865 Shares Outstanding (in M) 2,181 Free Float (%) 43.52% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E DIV. YIELD (%) 1.39 1.39 1.75 2.19 1.50 Carlo Chua Laput, CSS Equity Analyst The First Resources Management and Securities Corporation

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Page 1: 28 March 2014 Universal Robina Corporation SHARE PRICE ......Monde Nissin Corporation Lucky Me, Sky Flakes X X X X San Miguel Pure Foods Company Inc Magnolia, PureFoods X X. 28 March

DISCLAIMER:

This document was prepared by The First Resources Management & Securities Corp. (FR) for information purposes only. It is not to be considered as an offer to sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained therein is accurate and complete, FR makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the reliance on this information. This document cannot be reproduced in whole or in part by the recipient or another person, nor should it be redistributed by the person or the company to whom it was first addressed. All recipients are urged to make their own assessment as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. All information and opinions are subject to change without prior notice.

28 March 2014

Universal Robina Corporation

(URC)

Rating: HOLD

We are initiating coverage of URC with a Hold

rating URC is one of the Philippine’s largest branded food product

company, a market leader in snacks, candies, chocolates,

canned beans, and ready to drink tea with a dominant position in

the biscuits, cup noodle, and coffee business. The company has

significant investments in the ASEAN region including China and

Hong-Kong as it solidifies its drive to become a major player in

South East Asia in light of the ASEAN integration. This puts the

company in a position to improve its margins as it takes

advantage of new markets through a regional alignment of its

facilities which is seen as the main driver for growth moving

forward.

Three stage plan to double bottom line in 5 to 6 years The company is set to double its net income by 2018 or 2019

through the build-up of scale here in the Philippine market,

regional alignment of its ASEAN facilities, and its push towards

higher priced segment products.

Drive into Power sector The company has taken advantage of the government incentive

to further utilize the inputs the company gets from their sugar

milling business with the construction of a ₱2 billion 40MW

Biomass-fired generation facility and ₱1 billion Fuel grade

ethanol plant.

Intrinsic value of ₱ 94.95 We valued URC using the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Model.

FORECASTS (IN PHP M)

Year End Dec 31

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Revenues 57,720 67,168 71,202 80,995 90,639

Operating Income

19,670 19,564 21,688 26,614 28,254

EBITDA 10,959 10,180 11,269 13,901 14,565

Core Income

8,138 5,026 8,185 10,117 8,938

Eq

uity

Re

sea

rch

Re

po

rt

SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

Universal Robina Corporation vs. PSEi

Source: Bloomberg

KEY DATA Ticker URC

Sector CONSUMER

Price (3-28-2014) ₱137.00

Current Price Target ₱94.95

Downside Potential 44%

52-Week Range ₱102.90 – 143.00

Market Cap (in PHP) 298,865

Shares Outstanding (in M) 2,181

Free Float (%) 43.52%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

DIV. YIELD (%) 1.39 1.39 1.75 2.19 1.50

Carlo Chua Laput, CSS

Equity Analyst

The First Resources Management and

Securities Corporation

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INVESTMENT THESIS

Branded Consumer Business URC is one of the Philippine’s largest branded food product company, a market leader in snacks, candies, chocolates, canned beans, and ready to drink tea with a dominant position in the biscuits, cup noodle, and coffee business. The company's branded consumer business can be divided into Philippines and the ASEAN region which includes two manufacturing plants in China and a sales office in Hong Kong. At present, the Philippine based operation accounts for 66% of the total while the ASEAN market accounts for 31% sales while Chinese sales make up the remaining 3%.

ASEAN Integration The ASEAN integration is an initiative that aims at narrowing the development divide between individual ASEAN countries and together enhancing ASEAN’s competitiveness in the global market. The drive was launched in 2000, the same year URC began its push outside the Philippines.

Effect of the Integration on Consumer Companies No real short term effect is expected due to the integration’s trade liberalization which is defined as the complete elimination of import tariffs of all member nations that are counted within the ASEAN Free Trade Area. We find that in Annex 2 of the Tariffs Under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) for the Philippines, the tariffs for “Other Crisp Savoury Food Products” reference no. 1449, “ Tea preparations consisting of a mixture of tea, milk powder and sugar” reference no. 1543 and “Waffles and wafers” reference no. 1439 account for a majority of the company's flagship products and we find that tariffs for these goods have largely been eliminated since 2012. Anything

Sourced from: URC’s Investor Report 2013

Sourced from: URC’s Investor Report 2013

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that can have a material effect due to the integration has already been the status quo for the past few years, hence no sudden changes is expected in the short term. Strong ASEAN Position Back Story The company began to expand its international branded consumer foods business in 2000, the same year the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) was launched. The company started with the initial thrust into China by setting up facilities in Shanghai and Guangzhou. The plan was to achieve nationwide distribution within China but the fierce competition in conjunction with unfavourable government regulation caused a shift in the overall direction of the company. ASEAN Expansion The new plan was focused on becoming the dominant branded consumer presence within the ASEAN region while simply using China as an export base. The company expanded into Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand in 2000 and then moved on to Singapore in 2007, Indonesia in 2008, and Hanoi in 2009. Its most recent expansion included Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam in 2013. Today, the most recent financial results show that about 27.2% of the company’s revenues comes directly from its Asian operations. With plans to set up distribution centres within Brunei, Cambodia, and Indonesia, URC has formally laid down the foundation to fully take advantage of the ASEAN integration. Framework of synergy The company's businesses which include Packaging, Feeds, Flour, Sugar work in synergy to further support the Branded Consumer Foods in the Philippines, the company has expanded this ideology to encompass its drive for international expansion which will allow URC to achieve regional alignment. Regional Alignment – International Synergy The company is positioning itself to be able to take in a multi-regional perspective in its decision making as it accounts for the costs of raw materials and labour fees, able to factor in changes brought about by market factors and even political risks. When a company’s manufacturing capability is confined within the confines of a single country, then it is forced to make the most of the situation within that country; in URC’s case however, the company would tend to have more flexibility in choosing where to manufacture a good, and what it should manufacture.

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For example, if wages begin to climb in Indonesia because of political instability, URC might decide to shift some of the production to Malaysia. If the raw material for manufacturing coffee begins to rise in Thailand, and the company sees that prices for Coffee will remain cheaper in Vietnam, the company is thus able to maximize its competitive advantage that occurred due to both regular and irregular market uncertainties to which the company refers to as "Regional Alignment". Centers for Excellence The company is thus both able to diversity and specialize at the same time. With facilities spread out across the ASEAN, the company is able to effectively diversify its income base over a wider geographic region, while the specialization will become a natural offshoot as the company continues to explore the best option with respect to sourcing out raw materials and labour costs—natural "Centers of Excellence" will emerge. These "Centers" due to unique situations present within a country, in time, might be identified as most advantageous in producing a certain product over another country. R&D as a Cornerstone The company is heavily invested in Research and Development ensuring that an average team of 20 is present in the R&D department of each country. A testament to the success of this model was the development of the “Great Taste” brand of white coffee in the research department of China which quickly became a hit product. With this, URC was able to take its market share in the coffee industry to 21% at the end of 2013 which is comprised by the instant coffee and coffee mixes sub-market where URC has a 23% and 20% market share. This is a significant improvement from a mere 5% market share way back when it started the Great Taste brand which serves as a testament to URC’s ability to be innovative, as well as to understand the consumers and to compete against dominant player within the industry.

Sourced from: URC’s Investor Report 2013

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Geographic Reach No other local player within the same price range has the same geographic reach as URC. If we look at the table below, only URC has invested manufacturing capacities, in all but 3 of the ASEAN countries.

Distribution Structure URC‘s distribution structure is divided into Modern Trade and General Trade. The Modern trade has to do with large distributors such as malls and grocery stores, while the general trade revolves around more traditional mom and pop stores such as the “Sari Sari” stores in the Philippines.

For the Philippine Segment, the company owns the delivery structure that services the Modern Trade parties while it consigns exclusive regional distributors for the general trade. Each distributor is given a protected territory wherein they benefit from guaranteed sales with the provision that they only carry URC products. Is there room for Philippine Growth? According to management, they continue to look forward to the potential growth opportunities within the Philippines that will come from Chocolates, Gums and Candies. Another driver the company looks towards is the upward trend of the Philippines’ growth story. Today, URC products caters to the C, D and E market where high value for money is seen as the deciding factor for consumer purchases; but as improvements occur in disposable income, the company

Company Brand

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Outside of ASEAN

and China

Universal Robina

Corporation

Jack n Jill, C2 X X X X X X X X

Liwayway

Manufacturing Corp

Oishi X X X X

Columbia Foods

International

Potchi, Yakke!,

Futos X

Republic Biscuit

Corporation

Rebisco, Happy

Peanuts X

Del Monte Phil Inc. Del Monte X X

Monde Nissin

Corporation

Lucky Me, Sky

Flakes X X X X

San Miguel Pure

Foods Company Inc

Magnolia,

PureFoods X X

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wishes to be able to capture the market of C, D and E which have begun to move up to the A and B segment. According to management, URC is currently in talks with Tokyo-based Calbee, the largest snack food company in Japan, with a dominant share of 52.3 % of the Japanese snack food market for a possible joint venture with the express purpose of manufacturing higher price segment snacks. The proposed joint venture will be based in Pasig City, Philippines, and will have the manufacture and sale of snack foods as its main business.

Vietnam Distribution Structure potential Growth URC was able to carve out a powerful niche in Vietnam with the wildly successful uptake of the C2 product. Because there already exists a dominant snack producer in this country, the company plans to further fortify their hold of the beverage business by expanding ready to drink coffee. A 3

rd manufacturing

facility is being built to further service the growing demand of their products. Today, they are present in 6 major cities as management look towards the tremendous potential growth outside the city proper by tapping into the general trade structure.

Sourced from: www.economist.com

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In a study done by Nielsen Grocery Report in 2013, they highlighted that in rural areas in India, mobile technology are bringing retail brands to rural idea. The 6-step process can be found below: 1. Sales staff visit shop owner. 2. Presents product range. 3. Takes order and massages via a mobile application. 4. Orders are sent as mobile phone messages appear in a central server. 5. Orders are lodged by rural retail customers. 6. Consignments are packed into a small goods truck and driven to village stores. Similar strategies may be adopted by the URC team here to boost its General Trade in the country. Notice in the chart below that Vietnam’s Modern Trade is small compared to the Grocery store / general trade where majority of the opportunity in Vietnam reside.

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Indonesia Indonesia’s revenues grew as total volumes sold increased by 30% due to several detrimental factors that included political instability and a devaluation of

the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) devaluing as much as 4.14% against the US dollar, which caused negative full year net income in 2013.

Threats The threat for the company has to do with execution given the ASEAN integration as the long term effect of having no tariffs with regard to raw materials is a level playing field for all consumer companies across all ASEAN nations. The pertinent question is now, who can best expand their market share in other ASEAN countries while at the same time defend and strengthen their dominance in their home country.

URC COMMODITY FOOD SEGMENT - SUGAR BUSINESS URC’s Commodity food segment is comprised mainly of sugar mills. The way sugar mills work in this country does not involve any cash exchange. Sugar cane farmers bring their produce to the mill where the raw materials are processed to produce sugar. They then split the final product with 30% going to URC while the remaining 70% goes to the sugar cane farmers. Of the total sugar that URC is able to collect through its mills, about 30% of that is enough to supply all the sugar requirements of URC’s Philippine branded consumer products. Hence, the remaining 70% is then sold off to large institutional buyers such as Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines Inc. According to Management, the commodity food business is an absolute product contributor to the Branded Consumer Business which provides for synergies within segments.

Sourced from: Nielsen Vietnam 2013 Consumer Report

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ASEAN Integration affect URC’s commodity food segment The sugar industry in the Philippines is protected by a tariff wherein a 10% tax is levied on sugar that was produced abroad. With this, the added cost discourages outside competition from selling sugar in the Philippines. The sugar tariffs however are seen as an advantage by the domestic producers who now face less competition (Moffatt, n.d.). The reduced competition however causes prices to rise. The ASEAN Integration plans to lower the Philippine Tariff from 10% down to 5% thus allowing for more competition to enter the country which will ultimately lead to lower sugar prices.

Hence, the effect on URC is on lower selling price on the 70% sugar sold to outside parties where management estimates a reduction in EBIT to ₱1.3 billion from ₱2 billion. However, despite this negative development, the company is expected to gain the losses from such decrease in tariff through its power generation business which would use by-products of its sugar business as fuel for the plant. Rational for POWER generation businesses Since November 26, 2012, the BOD and Stockholders approved the amendment to include in its secondary purpose the business of power generation which was approved by SEC on March 21, 2013. Management has since committed to build two power generation related plants with the objective of capturing even more value from its sugar processes. The sugar mills are traditionally self-powered because the company uses bagasse, the by-product left over after the juice has been extracted from the sugar cane (Bagasse, 2014) in the sugar manufacturing process. The bagasse is burned as fuel (Lotha, et.al., 2013) to heat the boilers that are used in the extraction of sugar. Despite this method there remains left over bagasse which has traditionally been disposed of. 40MW Biomass-fired generation facility The company has decided to utilize all the remaining bagasse to power a 40MW Biomass-fired generation facility which will be located at URC SONEDCO Sugar Mill in Kabankalan, Negros Occidental at an estimated cost of ₱2 billion which is expected to be completed by 2015. The company plan to sell the unused electricity, (about 2/3 of the supply produced) to the grid. Management expects an average pay-back period of 5-6 years. Fuel grade ethanol plant Its second power generation related business was started in 2013 when the company decided to build a ₱1 billion worth fuel grade ethanol plant in Negros Oriental and is expected to start commercial operations in May 2014 with the aim to produce fuel grade anhydrous ethanol suitable for gasoline blending using sugar molasses as its main input.

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Discussion on Ethanol Process During the sugar making process, juice extracted from sugarcane is boiled down until the sugars crystallize and precipitate out. The syrup left over after crystallization is referred to as molasses. Typically, sugar cane juice undergoes three cycles of boiling and crystallization to extract as much sugar as possible (Bethany, n.d.). URC has traditionally sold off the molasses to alcohol manufacturers, but has since decided to maximize this free resource to produce fuel grade ethanol through the additional process of fermentation of molasses from the action of the yeast in a process of fermentation and distillation (Thamilvanan and Selvi, 2013) which is made possible in the soon to be completed ethanol plant. Because of the nature of the sugar industry wherein farmers bring their crop to the millers themselves, the input of bagasse for the 40 MW biomass plant and the molasses used in the fuel grade ethanol plan is virtually free. Captured Market The two businesses are also well positioned due to the power shortage concerns for the Philippines. Moving forward, the 40 MW plant will benefit from guaranteed contracted purchase of its power. On the other hand, the ethanol fuel will have a ready market since the Department of Energy is mandating that all gasoline grades be blended with 10-percent ethanol. Renewable Energy Incentives The government incentives for renewable energy include an income tax holiday for seven years and only a 10% on its net taxable income after 7 years after the ITH as well as duty-free importation of RE machinery, equipment and materials including control and communication equipment to name a few. Potential Short Term Windfall in Power Gen Management looks on to the potential of the “Protocol to Amend the Protocol to Provide Special Consideration for Rice and Sugar” signed by the ASEAN nations on October 28, 2010 for a chance to reverse the expected reduction in sugar prices. The amendment simply states that upon the implementation of the lower tariff, if the Philippines find that its sugar producers are threatened or in danger of serious injury due to the competition, the Philippines may ask for an extension in its implementation of the tariff. A formula called “trigger level” for rice and sugar products was constructed as to facilitate the definition of “threatened or in danger of serious injury due to the competition” (2010). The formula is as follows:

V = (1+ ASG)(1+DG)

Where:

V = Trigger Volume

= Average level of imports form ASEAN in the 3 years immediately preceding the last year. Expressed in metric tons.

ASG = Growth rate of the share of imports from ASEAN to total imports, a number agreed upon in ASEAN is 10% per year.

DG = Growth rate of domestic consumption, a number agreed upon in ASEA is 2% per year.

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Ultimately, the provision simply delays the inevitable price decline of sugar;

URC’s commodity food segment however is already prepared to offset any

potential losses due to the tariff reduction and may even benefit from a potential

extension in the event that a “Trigger Level” is reached when they implement

the tariff reduction in 2015.

FLOUR BUSINESS Part of URC’s commodity foods business is the flour mills. There are only 12 millers in the Philippines and at present there is no risk of a price war ensuring profits. Because wheat, the main ingredient of flour is not grown in the Philippines, the company imports most of its raw inputs from North America. Because flour prices are monitored extensively by the government, URC has deemed it a prudent strategy to buy only 60-90 days’ worth of inventory at a time so that the company remains flexible in its adjustment of its prices.

HOGS - A LEGACY BUSINESS URC Founder John Gokonwei started in the CornFed business which had a natural offshoot in the hog farming business. Despite today being the 2nd largest producer of Pork, the company in fact only captures 2% of the market while the largest producer captures only 4% of the total market which shows how fragmented the industry is. Profitability At year-end 2013, the agro-industrial segment which is divided into two sub-segments, comprised by the Hogs business with 80% of the total segment revenues and the Biochem business which comprises of the remaining 20%, earned ₱4.8 billion in net income. Looking forward, the growth in this segment is expected to come from organic growth as the company has no plans to further expand this section of the business. With volumes of pork fairly constant, market price will determine top line values. Management Policy on Dividends. The company's dividend policy is set at 50% but the company has historically paid as much as 65% which is a testament to the fact that if the company cannot use its earnings as Capex or for something productive, it simply pays out the cash to the investors.

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FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RATIOS

INCOME STATEMENT (in

PHP M)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Revenues 57,720.00 67,167.63 71,201.68 80,995.22 90,638.66

Operating Profit 19,669.77 19,563.93 21,687.93 26,614.44 28,253.68

Depreciation 3,278.03 3,264.53 3,419.03 3,621.60 4,264.18

EBITDA 10,959.01 10,180.41 11,268.58 13,900.65 14,564.51

Interest Expense 1,032.81 999.25 637.28 233.69 (38.80)

Pre-Tax Income 8,919.25 5,648.34 9,186.03 11,549.77 10,387.15

Net Income 8,138.25 5,026.38 8,185.05 10,117.33 8,938.45

EPS 3.75 2.26 3.70 4.60 4.10

Outstanding Shares 2,070.35 2,061.50 2,181.50 2,181.50 2,181.50

Cash 4,459.25 4,546.88 5,345.83 12,033.31 27,149.65

Accounts Receivable 4,002.40 4,764.10 4,959.52 5,385.83 7,111.11

Current Assets 37,425.72 39,417.74 39,687.63 33,427.54 52,835.67

PPE 25,312.01 26,423.22 27,918.63 30,180.40 34,967.05

Total Assets 65,359.30 68,408.61 70,095.33 66,544.97 90,938.77

Short-Term Debt 5,111.86 5,749.63 8,588.54 1,945.43 -

Accounts Payable 4,073.38 4,753.74 5,205.70 6,554.24 7,360.78

Current Liabilities 11,996.29 23,083.07 20,067.92 14,719.20 16,389.02

Long-Term Debt 11,218.95 3,002.45 2,990.46 - -

Total Liabilities 23,521.06 26,463.59 23,730.80 15,714.94 17,421.76

Total Equity 41,838.24 41,945.02 46,364.53 50,830.03 55,422.61

Operating Margin 13.30% 10.29% 11.02% 12.69% 11.36%

EBITDA Margin 18.99% 15.16% 15.83% 17.16% 16.07%

Current Ratio 0.57x 0.58x 0.57x 0.50x 0.53x

Return on Total Assets 12.45% 7.35% 11.68% 15.20% 9.83%

Return on Invested Capital 13.99% 7.49% 14.13% 19.17% 15.58%

Return on Equity 19.45% 11.98% 17.65% 19.90% 16.13%

Asset Turnover

(Sales/Assets) 0.88x 0.98x 1.02x 1.22x 1.00x

Net Profit Margin 14.10% 7.48% 11.50% 12.49% 9.86%

Leverage (Debt/Equity) 0.39x 0.60x 0.25x 0.04x 0.04x

BALANCE SHEET (IN PHP M)

KEY RATIOS

DUPONT ANALYSIS

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Financial Analysis Profitability Revenues are expected to grow 12% for the year driven by the company’s branded consumer business, however, we expect net income to be lower year-on-year as depreciation costs mount as the company continues its capital expenditure for its power generation plants and facilities in Vietnam and Myanmar. Interest Expense is seen to be eliminated as the company has completely liquidated its long term portfolio and paid-off its long term debt. Operating margin, EBITDA margin, and the Current Ratio are all seen to remain steady while return on total assets (ROA) is expected to decline to 9.83% while return on invested capital is expected to decline to 15.58% brought about by a

lower net income due to increased depreciation costs due to the ₱9 billion capital expenditure slatted this year which is allotted for the 40MW biomass power plant, ethanol plant, plants in Vietnam and plants in Myanmar. Return on Equity is still seen in the double digits though lower at 16.13% again due to the high Capex for 2014. Leverage remains flat as the company does not plan to borrow in the foreseeable future.

Liquidity and Solvency Cash Ratio is expected to decrease from 0.77 in 2013 to 0.26 in 2014 as the company continues to use its retained earnings to finance its capital expenditures for the Vietnam and Myanmar facilities as well as the completion of both the power related plants. On the other hand, the current ratio is expected to remain roughly at the same level.

Liquidity and Solvency Ratios 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Cash Ratio 0.19 0.17 0.23 0.77 0.26

Current Ratio 0.57 0.58 0.57 0.50 0.53

Quick Ratio 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.34 0.39

Debt to Equity Ratio 0.39 0.21 0.25 0.04 0.04

Debt to Capital Ratio 0.28 0.17 0.20 0.04 0.04

Debt Service Coverage Ratio 0.67 1.16 0.97 7.15 1.79

Activity Ratios 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Receivable turnover 13.74 15.32 14.65 15.66 14.11

Average collection period 26.56 23.82 24.92 23.31 26.24

Inventory turnover 4.95 4.32 4.89 4.77 4.71

Days inventory on hand 73.75 84.48 74.70 76.47 77.64

Current biological turnover 36.34 43.28 48.37 46.32 47.00

Non current biological turnover 79.77 104.88 111.52 119.26 111.89

Payables turnover 10.84 10.79 10.19 9.63 10.50

Days of payable outstanding 33.67 33.82 35.82 37.90 34.84

Cash conversion cycle 7.85 8.85 9.34 10.80 8.32

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The First Resources Management & Securities Corp.

Cost of Debt (After Tax) 2.79%

Cost of Equity 10.01%

WACC 9.66%

Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.66%

Risk Free Rate 5.50%

Valuation Assumption

Meanwhile, the company’s debt-to-equity ratio is expected to remain at the same level as the company does not intend to borrow in the near-term. Valuation

Assumptions used to arrive at the intrinsic value of ₱94.95 using the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Method includes the following: The risk-free rate assumption is the YTM of the 25-year Philippine bond.

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The First Resources Management & Securities Corp.

References:

Dumlao, Doris C (2014, February 3,) URC eyes venture with Japan’s largest

snack food company, Philippine Inquirer, Retrieved March 25, 2014 from

http://business.inquirer.net/162892/urc-eyes-venture-with-japans-largest-snack-

food-company

Pascual, Federico D. Jr. (2013, April 4) Using ethanol blend as fuel a good idea? philstar.com opinion, Retrieved March 25, 2014 from http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2013/04/04/926738/using-ethanol-blend-fuel-good-idea Thamilvanan, Selvi (2013, January 31) Distillation of ethanol from Sugar Molasses, International Journal of Medicine and Biosciences, Retrieved March 25, 2014 from http://www.ijmbonline.com/vol22013/issue1/MSRA%200016.pdf Moncel, Bethany (n.d) What is Molasses?, About.com Food Reference, Retrieved March 25, 2014 from http://foodreference.about.com/od/Sweeteners/a/What-Is-Molasses.htm

Lotha, Gloria. Petruzzello, Melissa. Tikkanen, Amy.(2013, August 15) Bagasse,

Encyclopaedia Britannica, Retrieved March 25, 2014 from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/48728/bagasse What is Bagasse (2014) Questions about Bagasse/Sugarcane, Biogreenchoice, Retrieved March 25, 2014 from http://www.biogreenchoice.com/category_s/1864.htm Consideration for Rice and Sugar (2010. October 2) . Protocol to Amend the Protocol to Provide Special Consideration for Rice and Sugar, Retrieved March 25, 2014 from http://www.asean.org/images/2012/Economic/AFTA/Agreements_Declarations/Protocol%20to%20Amend%20the%20Protocol%20to%20Provide%20Special%20Consideration%20for%20Rice%20and%20Sugar,%20Ha%20Noi,%20Viet%20Nam,%2028%20October%202010.pdf Moffatt, Mike (n.d.) The Economic Effect of Tariffs. Economics. Retrieved March 25, 2014 from http://economics.about.com/cs/taxpolicy/a/tariffs_2.htm