27/06/2015 1. the world is turbulent financial crisis systemic forces no return to business as...
Post on 21-Dec-2015
221 views
TRANSCRIPT
18/04/23 1
The world is turbulentFinancial crisis
Systemic forces
No return to Business As Usual
How scenarios help organisations Forecasts and scenarios
Communicating scenarios
Scenarios as part of renewal
Three case studiesPublic engagement
Visioning
Strategy
18/04/23 2
18/04/23 3
Financial crisisDebt
Bank bailouts
Ongoing effects
Commerce
3000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 ‘09
Consumers
(money of the day: US GDP grew by 8 times in the period)
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 201018/04/23 4
Expenditure $US bn 2008
S&L crisis2009-12 Obama stimulus plan
2008 tranche of the bank bailout
Marshall plan
Louisiana purchase
NASA, less moon shot
Moon shot
Korean warThe New Deal
Iraq war
Viet Nam
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 201018/04/23 5
Banking crisis remain chronic, as does state intervention
The economic situation is completely predicated on the banking crisis
Economic situation develops independently
of the banking crisis
Banking crisis is settled relatively quickly
Japan
India
UK US
Middle income industrialising
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
China
Euro zone
18/04/23 6
Prolonged depression,
growing statist environment
Slow grind to expunge debt;
some deliberate use of monetary
inflation
Business grows as
before
Slow return to health; US consumer
stage centre
18/04/23 7
Systemic forces
Population
Demographics
Education
Values
Energy
Environment
Inter-connectedness
North AmericaEuropeLatin America
Asia
Africa
World population (billions)
3
6
9
1950 1975 2000 2025
3
6
9 Total world population
Secondary education
Graduate-level education
1850 1900 1950 2000 2025
18/04/23©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
8
19881998
2008
AfricaS America
AsiaOceania
N AmericaEurope
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Ratio of people under 16 years to
people over 45
Time
18/04/23©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
9
Purity
Authority
Affiliation
Fairness
Harm
Relevance to a moral decision
Decreasing traditionalism
18/04/23©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
10
18/04/23 11
400
300
200
100
0
Gigajoules per capita
0 10 20 30 40GDP per capita
USA
Europe, Japan, Korea
China, India
The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already
0
Carbon dioxide
Species extinction rate
Nitrogen cycle
Phosphorus cycle
Stratospheric ozone depletion
Ocean acidification
Freshwater use
Change in land use
Sustainable limit
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 201018/04/23 12
18/04/23 13
1000
100
Per
ceiv
ed im
pact
U
S B
N $
Perceived likelihood in next 10 years
Rich nations 15% world population
90% world wealth
Industrialising nations
25% world population
9% world wealth
Poor nations
60% world population
< 1% world wealth
18/04/23 14©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
18/04/23 15©2009 Ringland
18/04/23 16
Scenarios
Forecasts
Scenario planning
How it works
Cycle of renewal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1951 1971 1991 2006 2016
ActualForecast now
1991 forecast
A trend is a trend until it bends18/04/23 17
Trends Range of other uncertainties
Uncertain timing
Single point forecast
Today
18/04/23 18©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
Scenario planning attempts to describe what is possible.
The result of a scenario analysis is a group of distinct futures, all of which are plausible.
They are mental models.
FuturePresent
B
C
D
A
Nu
mb
er o
f P
oss
ible
Fu
ture
Wo
rld
s
18/04/23 19
Ingvar, a neurobiologist, found that the human brain is constantly attempting to explore options for the future even while we are
asleep
Mental models of the world provide a context for these explorations“memories of the future” act as a filter to signals.
Scenarios provide several alternative model future worlds for the brain to explore
increases the range of “what we have experienced” and “what is relevant to our future”
increases the ability of the brain to perceive.
.
Source: D. Ingvar, “Memory of the Future”, Human Neurobiology, 4(3), p127-136, 1985
18/04/23 20
Scenarios are mental models - artifacts
Communication method depends on audienceEngineers & scientists – comparator tables
Managers – brief
“Public” – visualisation & stories
All audiences helped by early indicatorsNewspaper headlines now if this scenario is developing
Plus
All audiences need discussion time to internalise, eg“What are the implications for me/the organisation? “
“How would I/the organisation manage in this scenario?”
18/04/23 21
Road maps
© 2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow18/04/23 22
Audit of capability
Internal scanning
Organisational & leadership development
Horizon scanning
Scenarios
Asset allocation
Policy and strategy
Review Narrative
Innovation
18/04/23 23
Public engagement Seattle
Visioning Natural England
Strategy Scotland
18/04/23 24
White “flight to the suburbs” leaving SeattleSeattle public schools had problems
Enrolment droppedVoters refused to support education bonds
Schools decayed & staff leavingTeachers Union with GBN set up a project team from a diverse set
of stakeholdersOld/young
Male/femaleWhite/black
Employers/students/teachers Asked questions for the future of the schoolsWill changes to the social fabric be turbulent or healthy?
Will the rate of change be slow/resistant or rapid/embracing?
18/04/23 25
Turbulent Healthy
Social fabric
Rapid
Slow/resistant
Rat
e of
cha
nge
Rio Tweaking the
Edges
Mosaic The Change
18/04/23 26
The City agreed with the team after wide consultation and town meetings etc that The Change was the desirable scenario
Schools as community centresUse of ICT
Pre-school & adult educationStudents rather than schools funded
Business took an active roleUnemployed adults as classroom assistants
On the basis of The Change scenario as a vision, Seattle City passed two school bonds to get funding
Revision of governance of schools & teachers seniority rulesUse of ex-military as Headmasters
Seattle became a beacon for educationalists across the US
2718/04/23
18/04/23 28
Project took from September 2008 to September 2009
Natural England & stakeholders formed team with SAMIFeedback to NE Board and Senior Management Team
3 workshops to develop scenarios50 people at each
Natural England pro-actively involved other agencies
Test with 6 groups of stakeholders & Board experts on uplands, woodlands, marine, ----
Engage with “not the usual suspects” in the public School children, inner city, small business, prosperous rural
Create Vision for the English natural environment
18/04/23 29
Head inthe SandHead in
the SandSo Far,
So GoodSo Far,
So Good
Continuingas we are:
present trends extended
Focus on ICT, ignore disruptive effects of social
networking
Focus on consumption, ignore limits
Policy emphases
and dangers
Possible future
outcomes
Backlash
Focus on productivity, ignore
long-range consequences.
Environmental Guardians
Environmental Guardians
Digital people connect to web of
life & leave national power brokers
powerless.
Protect andBe DamnedProtect andBe Damned
Environmental and financial crises
force protectionist worldview.
Global competition forces innovations
for sustainable efficiency.
18/04/23 34
Findings “the most important thing we have done” (from a Board member) include:
Importance of marine environment
Young people assume technology will fix the environment
Outside London found great engagement with “Protect and be Damned”
Balance food needs vs “the environment”
The Scenario Report and related documents are onhttp://naturalengland.etraderstores.com/NaturalEnglandShop/NERR31
ditto NECR030
Ditto NECR031
18/04/23 35
18/04/23 36
Scenarios for Scotland (S4S) projectSet models for new devolved administration
Analogies with ? Norway? Finland?
Use of S4S at Napier UniversitySet strategy for new team
Five year plan
Five years laterUse of SAMI global drivers to plan for next 5 years
18/04/23 37
Purpose: set agenda for new devolved government – what sort of country should Scotland aspire to be?
Timing as new Scottish Parliament set up10 sponsors, from private sector & Government,
managed by SAMI plus St Andrews and Strathclyde Universities, 1,000 interviews, 50 + focus groups
Launched on St Andrews Day 1999High Road scenario, “can do”
Low Road scenario, “government’s fault”
Used by Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Executive & politicians to formulate policy and strategy
eg focus on entrepreneurs, capacity building and new enterpriseseg attracting students and keeping graduates in Scotland
18/04/23 38
2000 2005 2010 2015
Low Road -“government’s fault” – Business as Usual
Economy and Quality of Life
High Road scenario - “can do”
possible upward triggers between scenarios
Graduate Entrepreneurs Naturaleducation advantages
18/04/23 39
New University Principal and new Senior Management Team (SMT) at Napier University in 2003
Needed to create a common language and strategic planUsed the Scenarios for Scotland to frame a discussion
What scenario for Scotland?Did the University need to share the Scotland scenario?
Two day workshop discussion led to 37 actions and new Strategic Plan
To change from technical college with mostly local, undergraduate engineering students
Target: Use positives of Edinburgh brand to become global
Use positives of Edinburgh Festival to connect with ArtsDevelop Masters courses with global focus
18/04/23 40
University
Global
Local
Scotland Low Road High Road
X
?
?
?
Graduate education
New courses,
new students
18/04/23 41
Phone call to SAMI in 2008We’ve done that, met our targets
Will you help us with a plan for the next five years?
Used the SAMI five global drivers of changeGlobalisation
Climate changeRaw materials
TechnologyPeople
Workshop discussion allowed SMT to calibrate what was achievable, desirable, and to set targets for the next five years
Changed name to Edinburgh Napier University.
og
18/04/23 42
The world is turbulentFinancial crisis
Systemic forces
No return to Business As Usual
How scenarios help organisations Forecasts and scenarios
Communicating scenarios
Scenarios as part of renewal
Three case studiesPublic engagement
Visioning
Strategy
18/04/23 43
18/04/23 44
Some of this is covered in the book “Beyond Crisis” – there is a sample on the table.
If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please give me your business card!
And if this has whetted yourappetite to learn more thereare flyers with details of Futures Coaching courses that SAMI runs for the Government Office for Science, also on the table.