250-858-8593 [email protected] ben kerr, p.ag....vs. analytical motivation analytical vs....
TRANSCRIPT
Water / Policy Context
BC Water Sustainability Act (2016)
● Modernization of a 100-year old legal framework
● New provisions for regulating groundwater● Recognition of environmental flow needs
in surface water and groundwater allocation decisions
● Provisions for shared governance
Drivers for decision support tools
● Improved access to information for proponents, decision makers, and the public
● Work smarter - screening level tools provide quick context for supply / demand evaluation
Mission: Use data to help people make sustainable decisions about water
BC Water Tool - what is it?
Data and information platform for sustainable water management.bcwatertool.ca
“Get us better access to hydrologic data, so we can make better decisions”
Benefits
1. Save time and money2. Access scientifically rigorous data3. Context specific information, about specific areas4. Constantly updated, consistently accurate5. We make raw data beautiful
Guiding principles:● User first – easy to find, easy to use, easy
to understand● Integrate data from dozens of
organizations and departments, including:
1. Monitoring information at tens of thousands of locations.
2. Water supply and demand reports for millions of watersheds.
...more coming everyday!
Monitoring
Centralize and expose hard to find (and understand) data.
Replace repetitive, time consuming analysis tasks.
Similar to Assembly Bill 1755
Reporting
Provide public access to water supply and demand information at any location
Reporting
Reports produced in <30 seconds would take 2 weeks or more through traditional methods.
What’s made these tools successful?1. Easy to use - do you need instructions to use Google Maps or AirBnb? 2. Built to solve specific needs - don’t try to answer everything at once.3. Clear focus - understand the problem well (we had it ourselves, as did our partners and stakeholders)4. High performance - no spinning, ‘loading… animations’5. Be honest - tools won’t solve all the problems. Decision support not decision making.
What’s Missing1. There’s lots more monitoring data out there
● Community groups● Resource development projects
2. What about groundwater?● Newly regulated as of spring 2016 under
Water Sustainability Act
3. Open sharing, strengthened partnerships● It’s shocking how much open data will fix
things
4. Land based impact reporting● All the water in streams and aquifers comes
from the sky● Activities in the watershed influence water
quality, aquifer recharge, habitat, etc.
Academic - industry - NGO partnership
Method developmentData science, groundwater modeling
User interfaceInteractive web tools, operationalize research
What’s Next?
What’s Next?Publications:
Chapman, A., B. Kerr, D. Wilford. A Water Allocation Decision-Support Model and Tool for Predictions in Ungauged Basins in Northeast British Columbia, Canada. Journal of American Water Resources Association (accepted)
Huggins, X., T. Gleeson, H. Eckstrand, B. Kerr. Streamflow Depletion Modeling: Methods for an Adaptable and Conjunctive Water Management Decision Support Tool. Journal of American Water Resources Association (in review)
When are simple approaches good enough?
Depends on the situation, but generally:
● Identifies which streams are impacted● Environmentally conservative
Is there a need for these kinds of tools in California?
Streamflow estimates: Estimating natural monthly streamflows in California and the likelihood of anthropogenic modification; Open-File Report 2016-1189; Daren M. Carlisle, David M. Wolock, Jeannette K. Howard, Theodore E. Grantham, Kurt Fesenmyer, and Michael Wieczorek; DOI:10.3133/ofr20161189
How do simple solutions perform?Case study in the Navarro River Basin
Comprehensive assessment● Analytical vs numerical● Multiple analytical models● Steady state vs transient● Depletion apportionment
equations
Simple Complex
Make wise decisions about natural resourcesBen Kerr, [email protected]
https://goo.gl/4cC8Xfhttp://bcwatertool.ca
More details...Hunt vs Glover & Balmer solutionsTest domain in BCStreamflow depletion resultsEarly work in Navarro
How do different analytical models compare?
Glover & Balmer (1954)
Simple Complex
Hunt (1999)
analytical vs.
analytical
motivation analytical vs.
numerical
futuredirection
s
Difference: stream penetration into aquifer
Test Domain: Mainland BC4 subdomains in BC
Open-source data and flexible methods for broad geographic application
analytical vs.
analytical
motivation analytical vs.
numerical
futuredirection
s
How do different analytical models compare?Changes in estimated depletion over time
Now
2050
Glovermore depletion, bigger changes
Huntless depletion, smaller changes
analytical vs.
analytical
motivation analytical vs.
numerical
futuredirection
s
Depletion is not temporally uniform
Largest depletion in winter, summerSmallest depletion in sprint, autumn
analytical vs.
analytical
motivation analytical vs.
numerical
futuredirection
s
How do different analytical models compare?
analytical vs.
analytical
motivation analytical vs.
numerical
futuredirection
s
• Different models estimate different depletion magnitudes and rates• Partial penetration = less depletion
• Depletion varies seasonally
• Open-source data and methods allow for geographic flexibility
Ongoing Work: Navarro River Watershed
How does water use for rural residences as well as wine and cannabis cultivation impact streamflow, and how can we minimize impacts?
KALW
analytical vs.
analytical
motivation analytical vs.
numerical
futuredirection
s
Ongoing Work: Navarro River Watershed
Significant negative trend in Aug, Sep, Oct
Baseflow standard
analytical vs.
analytical
motivation analytical vs.
numerical
futuredirection
s