25 january 2021 results review 3qfy21 reliance industries industries - 3qfy21 - hs… · reliance...

25 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21

Reliance Industries

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Sailed through the tough times!

Our ADD rating on RIL with a price target of INR 2,330 /sh is premised on (1)

induction of Facebook, Google, Intel and Qualcomm as partners in Jio

Platforms, which should help the company accelerate the growth of digital

connectivity and create value in the digital ecosystem through technology

offerings, (2) recovery in refining and petchem businesses in FY22E, (3) the

emergence of a clear path to a stronger balance sheet, and (4) stake sale in the

retail business.

RIL reported standalone revenue/EBITDA of INR 613/87bn, -29/-33% YoY

and +9/+14% QoQ (4/17% lower than our estimates). Standalone APAT stood

at INR 87bn, -9/+34% YoY/QoQ (HSIE est: INR 64bn). The company has

provided for impairment in its investment in Shale Gas subsidiaries to the

extent of INR 1.2bn. The company has also recognised Deferred Tax Assets

of INR 156bn in respect of the difference between the book base and tax base

of the Shale Gas operations. This has resulted in a lower tax outgo for 3Q.

Standalone Oil to Chemicals (O2C) segment: Revenue grew 11% QoQ to

INR 708bn, primarily on account of higher volumes, mainly in

transportation fuels, PTA and Polyester supported by improved product

realisation across Polymers, Intermediates and Polyester. EBITDA for 3Q

improved by 9% QoQ to INR 92bn, primarily on account of higher product

sales and shifting of product placement from exports to domestic market.

Crude throughput declined 4% YoY and grew 9% QoQ to 16.7mmt. During

the quarter, Polymers margins were at a record high, while intermediate

margins were sequentially better. Cracker operating rate was 96%, impacted

by scheduled shutdown of ROGC at Jamnagar.

RJio: Revenue grew by ~5% QoQ to INR 195bn. ARPU rose to INR 151

(+18/4% YoY/QoQ) while the gross/net subscriber addition was ~25/5mn.

During the quarter, Google invested an amount of INR 337bn into JPL for a

7.73% stake. This has resulted in a total investment of INR 1,521bn by the

investors for a stake of 32.88% in JPL.

Reliance Retail (RR): Reliance Retail's net revenue declined 18.8% YoY to

INR 378.5bn. Core operations (ex-F&L) disappointed. While there have been

a few restructuring/re-purposing of segments such as (1) Reliance Market

transitioning into fulfillment centers, and (2) Petro Retailing being

transferred to RMBL (The RIL-BP JV). Adj. performance in grocery and CE

remained weak too. F&L segment rebounded strongly and doubled QoQ.

Adj EBITDAM (ex-INR 7.75bn investment income) came in at 7%.

Financial Summary – Consolidated Year Ending

March (INR bn)

3Q

FY21

2Q

FY21

QoQ

(%)

3Q

FY20

YoY

(%) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 1,179 1,112 6.0 1,532 (23.1) 5,967 5,003 6,560 7,204

EBITDA 216 189 13.8 226 (4.7) 882 802 1,025 1,117

PAT 148 105 41.2 118 25.8 427 450 618 688

Diluted EPS (INR) 20.5 14.8 38.2 19.9 3.2 67.4 69.9 91.5 101.8

P/E (x)

30.4 29.3 22.4 20.1

EV / EBITDA (x)

17.7 16.7 12.2 10.8

RoE (%)

10.2 9.4 11.1 10.8

Source: Company, HSIE Research

ADD

CMP (as on 22 Jan 2021) INR 2,050

Target Price INR 2,330

NIFTY 14,372

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating ADD ADD

Price Target INR 2,140 INR 2,330

EPS % FY21E FY22E

+22.0% +11.5%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code RIL IN

No. of Shares (mn) 6,339

MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 12,993/178,,078

6m avg traded value (INR mn) 36,555

52 Week high / low INR 2,371/867

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (2.7) 2.3 34.9

Relative (%) (23.2) (26.8) 16.1

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Sept-20 Dec-20

Promoters 50.49 50.54

FIs & Local MFs 13.39 13.11

FPIs 25.20 25.16

Public & Others 10.92 11.19

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Harshad Katkar

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7319

Nilesh Ghuge

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7342

Jay Gandhi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7320

Rutvi Chokshi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7356

mailto:[email protected]



Page | 2

Reliance Industries: Results Review 3QFY21

Change in estimates: We have raised our FY21/22 EPS estimates by 22.0/11.5% to

INR 69.9/91.5 per share, mainly to account a better-than-anticipated 9MFY21

performance, and a lower-than-expected tax outgo in FY21.

Valuation: We use EV/EBITDA to value downstream at Dec-22E EV/e, Retail on

peer benchmarked EV/e and E&P, Jio on DCF. The stock is currently trading at

12.2x Dec-22E EV/EBITDA and 22.4x Dec-22E EPS. Maintain ADD.

Quarterly Consolidated Financial Snapshot

(INR bn) 3QFY21 2QFY21 QoQ (%) 3QFY20 YoY (%)

Revenues 1,179 1,112 6.0 1,532 (23.1)

Material Expenses 722 715 1.1 1,055 (31.5)

Employee Expenses 42 34 23.8 39 9.4

Other Operating Expenses 198 174 13.7 212 (6.6)

EBIDTA 216 189 13.8 226 (4.7)

Depreciation 67 66 0.6 55 20.2

EBIT 149 123 21.0 171 (12.8)

Other Income (incl EO items) 43 42 2.0 32 34.2

Interest Cost 43 61 (28.9) 54 (19.9)

PBT 149 105 42.2 149 0.0

Tax 1 (0) NA 31 (97.2)

RPAT 148 105 41.2 118 25.8

Profit/Loss of Associate Company 1 1 (28.6) 1 31.6

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (1) - NA (1) NA

APAT 132 96 38.2 118 12.2

EPS 20.5 14.8 38.2 19.9 3.2


Quarterly Consolidated Segmental Snapshot

(INR bn) 3QFY21 2QFY21 QoQ (%) 3QFY20 YoY (%)

Segmental Revenues

Oil to Chemicals (O2C) 838 762 10.0 1,191 (29.6)

Oil and Gas 4 4 21.4 9 (50.6)

Organised Retail 369 392 (5.9) 453 (18.7)

Digital Services 237 227 4.4 178 32.7

Others 116 91 27.8 51 129.0

Gross revenue 1,564 1,475 6.1 1,883 (16.9)

Less: Inter Segment Transfers 186 191 (2.6) 190 (2.2)

Value of Sales & Services 1,378 1,284 7.4 1,692 (18.6)

Less: GST Recovered 138 122 13.5 121 14.7

Revenue from Operations 1,240 1,162 6.7 1,572 (21.1)

Segmental Results Before Interest, Tax & Exceptionals

Oil to Chemicals (O2C) 76 68 13.3 113 (32.2)

Oil and Gas (4) (6) NA (4) NA

Organised Retail 26 15 69.2 24 8.9

Digital Services 57 52 10.8 39 46.5

Others 15 13 14.4 8 93.9

Total 170 141 20.5 180 (5.5)

EBIT Margins (%)

Oil to Chemicals (O2C) 9.1 8.9 26 9.5 (35)

Oil and Gas NA NA NA NA NA

Organised Retail 7.1 3.9 314 5.3 179

Digital Services 24.1 22.7 140 21.9 227

Others 12.6 14.1 (147) 14.9 (228)


Page | 3


Story in Charts

Segmental EBITDA (consolidated, in INR bn) Crude throughput (MMT)

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Jio Platforms

ARPU trend Subscriber trends



0

50

100

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Oil to Chemicals Others Oil and Gas Organized Retail

INR bn

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.7

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.7

18

.0

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.0

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-

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40

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3Q

FY

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FY

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ARPU (INR)

0

5

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25

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3Q

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Closing subscribers (mn)- LHS Net additions (mn)- RHS

Page | 4


Reliance Jio Platforms

Quarterly Financial Snapshot (Consolidated)

INR bn 3QFY21 2QFY21 QoQ (%)

Value from Services 229 217 5.3

Revenue from Operations 195 185 5.3

EBITDA 85 80 6.4

EBITDA Margin % 43.6% 43.1%

D&A 30 29 1.4

EBIT 55 51 9.3

Finance Costs 9 10 (16.9)

Profit before Tax 47 40 15.9

Net Profit 35 30 15.5


Quarterly Operational Snapshot

Quarterly Operational Snapshot 3QFY21 2QFY21 QoQ (%) 3QFY20 YoY(%)

Closing Subs (Mn) 411 406 1.3 370 11.0

Gross Adds (Mn) 25 27 (7.7) 37 (32.3)

Churn (Mn) 20 20 0.0 22 (10.8)

Net Adds (Mn) 5 7 (28.8) 15 (64.9)

ARPU (Rs) 151 145 4.2 128 17.6

Data Usage (Mn GB) 15,860 14,420 10.0 12,080 31.3

Data Usage/Sub (GB/Month) 13 12 8.3 11 16.6

Minutes of Usage (Bn Mins) 975 932 4.6 826 18.0

MOU/Sub (Mins) 796 773 3.0 760 4.8


Page | 5


Reliance Retail

Quarterly Financial Snapshot

INR bn 3QFY21 2QFY21 QoQ % 3QFY20 YoY %

Net Revenue 330 366 (9.7) 407 (18.8)

EBITDA 31 20 55.4 27 13.2

EBITDA margin % 9.3% 5.4% 6.7%


Change in estimates

FY21E FY22E

Old New % Ch Old New % Ch

Crude oil (USD/bbl) 36.3 48.8 34.6 41.3 50.7 22.9

Exchange rate (INR/USD) 73.5 75.0 2.1 75.3 75.0 (0.4)

Standalone business

GRM (USD/bbl) 6.5 6.3 (3.1) 9.4 9.4 -

Petchem margin (INR/kg) 9.2 9.6 4.5 14.1 17.8 26.1

EBITDA (INR bn) 320 323 0.9 541 596 10.0

EPS (INR/share) 29.2 39.0 33.5 51.3 57.3 11.8

Jio

Revenue (INR bn) 690 691 0.1 858 859 0.2

EBITDA (INR bn) 335 336 0.2 409 410 0.3

APAT (INR bn) 138 137 (0.2) 182 181 (0.6)

EPS (INR/share) 3.1 3.1 (0.2) 4.0 4.0 (0.6)

ARPU 147.9 148.5 0.4 160.1 161.1 0.6

Closing Subs (Mn) 423 421 (0.5) 463 461 (0.5)

Consolidated business

EBITDA (INR bn) 708 802 13.1 964 1,025 6.2

EPS (INR/share) 57.3 69.9 22.0 82.0 91.5 11.5


SOTP valuation

Business EV (INR bn) Value per share Valuation basis

Petrochemicals 2,412 380 EV/EBITDA on Dec 22E

Refining 1,986 313 EV/EBITDA on Dec 22E

E & P 253 40 NPV

Retail 3,399 535 EV/EBITDA on Dec 22E

Telecom 4,655 733 NPV

Investments/CWIP 1,392 219

Consol. net Debt/creditors for

Capex/deferred spectrum

liabilities

696 110 As on Dec-22

Value per share 14,793 2,330


Page | 6


Financials Consolidated Income Statement INR bn FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenues 3,917 5,692 5,967 5,003 6,560 7,204

Growth % 28.3 45.3 4.8 (16.2) 31.1 9.8

Raw Material 2,675 3,945 4,052 3,266 4,322 4,744

Employee Cost 95 125 141 141 171 185

Other Expenses 505 781 892 794 1,042 1,158

EBITDA 642 842 882 802 1,025 1,117

EBIDTA Margin (%) 16.4 14.8 14.8 16.0 15.6 15.5

EBITDA Growth % 38.9 31.2 4.8 (9.1) 27.8 9.1

Depreciation 167 209 222 253 238 253

EBIT 475 632 660 549 787 864

Other Income (Including EO Items) 99 84 95 207 258 271

Interest 81 165 220 215 220 210

PBT 494 551 535 541 825 925

Tax 133 154 137 40 203 232

RPAT before minority interest 360 397 398 501 623 692

Share of associates/Minority interest 1 (1) (4) (4) (4) (4)

RPAT after adjusting for Associates/Minority interest 361 396 394 497 618 688

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net of Tax) - - (34) 47 - -

APAT 361 396 427 450 618 688

APAT Growth (%) 20.6 9.7 8.0 5.3 37.4 11.3

AEPS 60.9 66.8 67.4 69.9 91.5 101.8

AEPS Growth % 20.6 9.7 0.9 3.6 30.9 11.3


Consolidated Balance Sheet INR bn FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 59 59 63 64 68 68

Reserves And Surplus 2,876 3,812 4,470 5,013 5,965 6,583

Total Equity 2,935 3,871 4,533 5,077 6,033 6,651

Minority Interest 35 83 80 83 88 92

Long-term Debt 1,442 2,075 1,976 1,956 1,766 1,678

Short-term Debt 746 800 1,387 1,027 827 803

Total Debt 2,188 2,875 3,363 2,983 2,593 2,481

Deferred Tax Liability 448 645 705 629 630 631

Long-term Provision 114 162 206 207 208 209

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 5,720 7,636 8,888 8,979 9,552 10,064

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 3,981 3,864 5,224 4,824 4,936 5,061

Capital WIP 1,870 1,795 1,091 1,039 1,102 1,134

Goodwill on consolidation 58 120 103 103 103 103

LT Loans and Advances 27 55 217 217 164 148

Non-current investments 253 1,646 2,039 442 464 487

Non-current assets 87 223 374 388 402 417

Total Non-current Assets 6,275 7,702 9,048 7,012 7,170 7,350

Inventories 608 676 739 648 697 675

Debtors 176 301 197 202 246 268

Cash and Cash Equivalent 43 111 309 2,154 2,695 2,964

ST Loans and Advances 108 5 7 - - -

Other Current Assets 328 471 602 540 498 474

Current investments 576 710 729 729 729 729

Total Current Assets 1,838 2,274 2,583 4,274 4,865 5,110

Creditors 1,069 1,083 968 789 1,080 1,136

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 1,324 1,257 1,775 1,517 1,404 1,260

Total Current Liabilities 2,393 2,340 2,743 2,306 2,484 2,396

Net Current Assets (555) (66) (160) 1,967 2,382 2,714

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 5,720 7,636 8,888 8,979 9,552 10,064


Page | 7


Consolidated Cash Flow YE March (INR bn) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Reported PBT 494 551 535 541 825 925

Non-operating & EO Items (99) (85) (65) (258) (263) (275)

Interest Expenses 81 165 220 215 220 210

Depreciation 167 209 222 253 238 253

Working Capital Change 127 (420) 292 (282) 127 (63)

Tax Paid (99) 44 (77) (116) (202) (231)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 670 464 1,127 352 945 819

Capex (843) (79) (861) 199 (412) (411)

Free Cash Flow (FCF) (173) 385 265 551 533 408

Investments 4 (1,394) (392) 1,597 (22) (23)

Non-operating Income 99 84 95 207 258 271

Others (3) (165) (313) (14) 39 1

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (743) (1,553) (1,472) 1,990 (137) (162)

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 222 687 488 (380) (390) (112)

Interest Expenses (81) (165) (220) (215) (220) (210)

FCFE (32) 908 533 (43) (77) 86

Share Capital Issuance 30 0 4 1 3 -

Dividend (39) (48) (46) (38) (58) (68)

Others (46) 683 318 135 398 3

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 85 1,157 544 (497) (267) (388)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 12 68 198 1,845 541 269

EO Items, Others - - - - - -

Closing Cash & Equivalents 43 111 309 2,154 2,695 2,964


Key Ratios Ratios FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

PROFITABILITY %

EBITDA Margin 16.4 14.8 14.8 16.0 15.6 15.5

EBIT Margin 12.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 12.0 12.0

APAT Margin 9.2 7.0 7.2 9.0 9.4 9.6

RoE 12.9 11.6 10.2 9.4 11.1 10.8

RoIC 13.7 12.2 11.2 8.6 11.3 12.2

RoCE 7.7 7.7 7.2 7.3 8.5 8.6

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate % 27.0 27.9 25.7 7.4 24.6 25.1

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9

Inventory (days) 57 43 45 47 39 34

Debtor (days) 16 19 12 15 14 14

Other Current Assets (days) 41 31 37 39 28 24

Payables (days) 146 100 87 88 91 87

Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 181 116 160 170 119 97

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (213) (123) (153) (156) (130) (113)

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.4 2.6 0.1 (0.8) (1.1)

Net D/E 0.5 0.531 0.513 0.020 (0.138) (0.182)

Interest Coverage 5.9 3.83 3.00 2.56 3.58 4.11

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 60.9 66.8 67.4 69.9 91.5 101.8

CEPS 86.8 99.3 101.9 109.1 126.6 139.2

Dividend 6.6 6.4 7.1 5.0 7.4 8.6

Book Value 455.4 600.7 703.4 787.8 892.3 983.7

VALUATION

P/E (x) 33.7 30.7 30.4 29.3 22.4 20.1

P/Cash EPS (x) 23.6 20.6 20.1 18.8 16.2 14.7

P/BV (x) 4.5 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 18.2 17.7 16.7 12.2 10.8

EV/Revenue (x) 3.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.7

Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4

OCF/EV (%) 4.5 3.0 7.2 2.6 7.6 6.8

FCFF/EV (%) (1.2) 2.5 1.7 4.1 4.3 3.4

FCFE/M Cap (%) (0.2) 6.9 4.0 (0.3) (0.6) 0.6


Page | 8


Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

10-Jan-20 1,548 NEU 1,527

19-Jan-20 1,580 NEU 1,562

2-Mar-20 1,329 ADD 1,566

14-Apr-20 1,191 BUY 1,400

29-Apr-20 1,428 BUY 1,535

3-May-20 1,467 ADD 1,560

19-Jul-20 1,911 ADD 1,560

31-Jul-20 2,067 ADD 1,992

15-Oct-20 2,297 ADD 2,051

2-Nov-20 2,054 ADD 2,140

25-Jan-21 2,050 ADD 2,330

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Reliance Inds TP

Page | 9


Disclosure:

We, Harshad Katkar, MBA, Nilesh Ghuge, MMS, Jay Gandhi, MBA, & Rutvi Chokshi, CA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify

that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse

disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related

to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative

or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding

the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material

conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –No

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the

date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage

services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.

HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with

preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this

report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may

have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of

the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg

(East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022)

3045 3600

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HDFC securities

Institutional Equities

Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,

Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013

Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com


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