24 april 2013 d e b t and the d o c t o r. before we begin... i’m not trying to convince you of...
TRANSCRIPT
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24 April 2013
D E B T AND THE D O C T O R
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BEFORE WE BEGIN . . .
• I’m not trying to convince you of anything.
• The context is American . . .
• . . . but the implications are much broader than that.
• I am not an expert!
• Am I biased? You bet I am!
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HOW DEBT WORKS
Need Now Money Later
Personal Debt
Me Now Me Later
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HOW DEBT WORKS
Need Now Money Later
Public Debt
Us Now Them Later
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“Government is the great fiction by which everybody endeavours to live at the expense of everybody else.”
DEBT AND JUSTICE
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“Government is the great fiction by which everybody endeavours to live at the expense of everybody else.”
DEBT AND JUSTICE
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It’s not right to use government to put your burden on someone else.
Fair Shares at a Point in Time
DEBT AND JUSTICE
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Fair Shares Over Time
Public Debt Now Taxes Later
Fair Shares at a Point in Time
It’s not right to use government to put your burden on someone else.
DEBT AND JUSTICE
Us Now Them Later
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Public Debt Now Taxes Later
DEBT AND JUSTICE
Will future persons be able to pay, and at what cost?
Is it fair to ask future persons to pay?
Are we, and they, getting good value?
Us Now Them Later
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THE PLAN
1. What is the Debt?
2. Why Worry About Debt?
3. What Causes Debt to Grow?
4. How Can Debt Be Controlled?
5. Discussion
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1. WHAT IS THE DEBT?
Where Does Public Debt Come From?
Revenue (smaller) Revenue (bigger) Revenue (equal)
- Spending (bigger) - Spending (smaller) - Spending (equal)
= Deficit = Surplus = Balanced Budget
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1. WHAT IS THE DEBT?
Where Does Public Debt Come From?
Last year This year Next year
Revenue (smaller) Revenue (smaller) Revenue (smaller)
- Spending (bigger) - Spending (bigger) - Spending (bigger)
= Deficit = Deficit = Deficit
DEBT
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1. WHAT IS THE DEBT?
What Gets Counted as “The Debt”?
As of 15 April 2013:
GROSS DEBT $16.8 trillion
INTRAGOVERNMENTAL DEBT $ 4.8 trillion
PUBLIC DEBT $ 12 trillion
UNFUNDED OBLIGATIONS?
Better treated under the topic of spending
Source: US Dept. of the Treasuryhttp://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway
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1. WHAT IS THE DEBT?
What Gets Counted as “The Debt”?
As of 15 April 2013:
GROSS DEBT $16.8 trillion
INTRAGOVERNMENTAL DEBT $ 4.8 trillion
PUBLIC DEBT $ 12 trillion
Borrowed money to be paid back with taxes later
Source: US Dept. of the Treasuryhttp://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway
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1. WHAT IS THE DEBT?
What Gets Counted as “The Debt”?
By end of 2018 (est.):
GROSS DEBT $21.7 trillion
INTRAGOVERNMENTAL DEBT $ 5.7 trillion
PUBLIC DEBT $ 16 trillion
Borrowed money to be paid back with taxes later
Source: White House Office of Management and Budgethttp://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 7.1
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1. WHAT IS THE DEBT?
Is This a Lot of Debt?
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1. WHAT IS THE DEBT?
Is This a Lot of Debt?
It is high enough to be historically very significant:
“Debt has exceeded 70 percent of GDP during only one other period in U.S. history: from 1943 through 1951, when it spiked (peaking at 109 percent of GDP) because of a surge in federal spending during World War II.”
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
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1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
estim
ate
2014
estim
ate
2016
estim
ate0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
World War II 2013US PUBLIC DEBT AS % GDP
1940 - 2017
AustraliaSource: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 7.1http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-debt_gov-debt-table-en (Australia)
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World War II 2013US DEFICITS AS % GDP
1940 - 2017
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.2
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
estim
ate
2016
estim
ate
2018
estim
ate
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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US DEFICITS IN 2005 DOLLARS1940 - 2018
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3
World War II 2013
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THE PLAN
1. What is the Debt?
2. Why Worry About Debt?
3. What Causes Debt to Grow?
4. How Can Debt Be Controlled?
5. Discussion
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5 Trade-offs of Debt
Caveats:
These are net effects
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Caveats:
These effects are not time-equal
“Generations born after about 2015 would be worse off if action to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio was postponed from 2015 to 2025. People born before 1990, however, would be better off if action was delayed, largely because they would partly or wholly avoid the policy changes needed to stabilize the debt.”
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Caveats:
These effects are not time-equal
“Generations born after about 2015 would be worse off if action to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio was postponed from 2015 to 2025. People born before 1990, however, would be better off if action was delayed, largely because they would partly or wholly avoid the policy changes needed to stabilize the debt.”
Dealing with it Now
Dealing with it Later
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Money invested in deficits isn’t invested elsewhere
“Increased government borrowing generally draws money away from (crowds out) private investment in productive capital, leading to a smaller stock of capital and lower output in the long run than would otherwise be the case.
Deficits generally have that effect on private investment because the portion of people’s savings used to buy government securities is not available to finance private investment.”
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
I
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Money invested in deficits isn’t invested elsewhere
“Increased government borrowing generally draws money away from (crowds out) private investment in productive capital, leading to a smaller stock of capital and lower output in the long run than would otherwise be the case.
Deficits generally have that effect on private investment because the portion of people’s savings used to buy government securities is not available to finance private investment.”
I
More Debt Lower Output. . . Less Wealth
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Raising taxes to reduce debt weakens incentives to work and save
“A lower marginal tax rate on capital income increases the after-tax rate of return on saving, strengthening the incentive to save; more saving implies more investment, a larger capital stock, and greater output and income. … A higher marginal tax rate on capital income has the opposite effect.”
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
II
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Raising taxes to reduce debt weakens incentives to work and save
“A lower marginal tax rate on capital income increases the after-tax rate of return on saving, strengthening the incentive to save; more saving implies more investment, a larger capital stock, and greater output and income. … A higher marginal tax rate on capital income has the opposite effect.”
II
More DebtHigher Capital Gains Tax
. . . Less Wealth
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Raising taxes to reduce debt weakens incentives to work and save
“Similarly, a lower marginal tax rate on labor income increases the incentive to work, raising the number of hours people work and therefore the amount of output and income. … A higher marginal tax rate on labor income has the opposite effect.”
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
II
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Raising taxes to reduce debt weakens incentives to work and save
“Similarly, a lower marginal tax rate on labor income increases the incentive to work, raising the number of hours people work and therefore the amount of output and income. … A higher marginal tax rate on labor income has the opposite effect.”
II
More DebtHigher Income Taxes
. . . Less Wealth
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Cutting spending to reduce debt means fewer public services
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
III
More Debt Fewer Services
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
More debt means a less flexible government
“Having a relatively small amount of outstanding debt gives policymakers the ability to borrow to address significant unexpected events such as recessions, financial crises, and wars. In contrast, a large amount of debt leaves less flexibility for government actions to address financial and economic crises, which in many countries have been very costly for the governments as well as for citizens.”
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
IV
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
More debt means a less flexible government
“Having a relatively small amount of outstanding debt gives policymakers the ability to borrow to address significant unexpected events such as recessions, financial crises, and wars. In contrast, a large amount of debt leaves less flexibility for government actions to address financial and economic crises, which in many countries have been very costly for the governments as well as for citizens.”
IV
More Debt Less Flexibility
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Increased risk of major fiscal crisis
“A rising level of government debt would have another significant negative consequence: Combined with an unfavorable long-term budget outlook, it would increase the probability of a fiscal crisis for the United States. In such a crisis, investors become unwilling to finance all of a government’s borrowing needs unless they are compensated with very high interest rates; as a result, the interest rates on government debt rise suddenly and sharply relative to rates of return on other assets.
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
V
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Increased risk of major fiscal crisis
“That increase in interest rates would reduce the market value of outstanding government bonds, inflicting losses on investors who hold them. Such a decline could precipitate a broader financial crisis by causing losses for mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and other holders of federal debt—losses that might be large enough to cause some financial institutions to fail.
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
V
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Increased risk of major fiscal crisis
“Unfortunately, there is no way to predict with any confidence whether and when such a fiscal crisis might occur in the United States. In particular, there is no identifiable tipping point of debt relative to GDP that indicates a crisis is likely or imminent. All else being equal, however, the larger the debt, the greater the risk of a fiscal crisis.”
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook, chapter 2http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
V
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
5 Trade-offs of Debt
Increased risk of major fiscal crisis
“Unfortunately, there is no way to predict with any confidence whether and when such a fiscal crisis might occur in the United States. In particular, there is no identifiable tipping point of debt relative to GDP that indicates a crisis is likely or imminent. All else being equal, however, the larger the debt, the greater the risk of a fiscal crisis.”
V
More Debt More Risk
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
More Debt
Higher TaxesFewer ServicesLess FlexibilityMore Risk
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
More Debt Less Wealth
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
What about Interest?
2012:
Public Debt: $ 12 trillion
Interest Payment: $220 billion
Approximate Rate: 1.8 %
More than 6% of all spending, and about 9% of all revenue
Almost 1/3 of all national defense spending in 2012
More than Education, Training, Social Services, Employment, & VA combined
Source : http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 6.1 (interest payment & total outlay), table 7.1 (debt), table 1.1 (revenue), table 3.1 (breakdown of outlay)
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
What about Interest?
2012:
Public Debt: $ 12 trillion
Interest Payment: $220 billion
Approximate Rate: 1.8 %
Rates of interest on public debt have been extremely low.
For instance, it was about 6.12% in 1993.
At a similar rate in 2012, interest would have been over $734 billion.
Source : http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 6.1 (interest payment), table 7.1 (debt)
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
Interest rateInterest as % GDPInterest as % revenue
INTEREST ON PUBLIC DEBT1992 - 2011
Source : http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 6.1 (interest payment), table 1.3 (revenue); http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls (debt)
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
What about Interest?
2012:
Public Debt: $ 12 trillion
Interest Payment: $220 billion
Approximate Rate: 1.8 %
At the moment, rates are fairly steady.
But rates change. With a large debt, what do such changes look like?
Source : http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 6.1 (interest payment), table 7.1 (debt)
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
What Difference Would Higher Interest Rates Make?
2012: 2012 +1 point:
Public Debt: $ 12 trillion $ 12 trillion
Interest Payment: $220 billion $336 billion
Approximate Rate: 1.8 % 2.8 %
An extra $116 billion in interest would have been paid.
A 53% increase in paid interest, and more than was spent on Education, Training, Employment, & Social Services combined – just in extra interest.
Source : http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 6.1 (interest payment), table 7.1 (debt), table 3.1 (breakdown of outlay)
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Extra payment as % GDP
Extra payment as % revenue
EFFECT ON INTEREST PAYMENTSOF EACH PERCENTAGE POINT
1992 - 2011
Sources : http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 7.1 (debt), table 3.1 (breakdown of outlay), table 1.1 (revenue); http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls (GDP).
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
When Interest Rates Return to Historically More Normal Levels:
“Throughout the 2013–2023 period, debt held by the public is projected to be significantly greater relative to GDP than at any time since just after World War II … If the amount of debt held by the public remains so large, federal spending on interest payments will increase substantially when interest rates rise to more normal levels.”
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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2. WHY WORRY ABOUT DEBT?
When Interest Rates Return to Historically More Normal Levels:
“Throughout the 2013–2023 period, debt held by the public is projected to be significantly greater relative to GDP than at any time since just after World War II … If the amount of debt held by the public remains so large, federal spending on interest payments will increase substantially when interest rates rise to more normal levels.”
Sustained or Increased Debt
Rising Debt Service Costs
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THE PLAN
1. What is Debt?
2. Why Worry About Debt?
3. What Causes Debt to Grow?
4. How Can Debt Be Controlled?
5. Discussion
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
What Do We Mean, “Causes”?
We might mean: How did deficits come to be so large?
Public debt went from 40% of GDP in 2008 to 54% in 2009 & climbing
“Perfect Storm”
Less Revenue More Spending
Decline in GDP General increase
Smaller share of GDP Wars
Stimulus bill
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
What Do We Mean, “Causes”?
We might mean: How did deficits come to be so large?
We might mean: Why are deficits still so hard to manage?
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
What Do We Mean, “Causes”?
We might mean: How did deficits come to be so large? “Altitude”
We might mean: Why are deficits still so hard to manage? “Attitude”
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
What Do We Mean, “Causes”?
We might mean: How did deficits come to be so large? “Altitude”
We might mean: Why are deficits still so hard to manage? “Attitude”
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Revenue Revenue Revenue
- Spending - Spending - Spending
= Deficit = Deficit = Deficit
DEBT
There are only 3 possibilities:
Revenue is too small
Spending is too big
Some combination of the two
See also http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf, p. 4
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
I think this is the answer, and clearly so.
There are only 3 possibilities:
Revenue is too small
Spending is too big
Some combination of the two
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
I think this is the answer, and clearly so.
But that still leaves a question:
Is this chiefly a revenue problem
or chiefly a spending problem?
There are only 3 possibilities:
Revenue is too small
Spending is too big
Some combination of the two
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
This is where things get very controversial.
Remember, I’m not here to convince you of anything!
But obviously, I do have a view.
Is this chiefly a revenue problem
or chiefly a spending problem?
There are only 3 possibilities:
Revenue is too small
Spending is too big
Some combination of the two
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
Because this is considered a political issue, the CBO doesn’t make a verdict.
However, they do controlled thought experiments—called “projections”—that can be used to determine what sorts of policy approaches are sustainable.
Their 2012 projection was particularly revealing ...
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The CBO focused on the 4 main areas that bear on the budget:
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The CBO focused on the 4 main areas that bear on the budget:
MANDATORY SPENDING
Spending that Congress can alter only if they change
the law
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The CBO focused on the 4 main areas that bear on the budget:
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
Spending that Congress can alter in preparing a budget,
without having to change any laws
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The CBO focused on the 4 main areas that bear on the budget:
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE
Taxes etc.
Historically 18% of GDP
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The CBO focused on the 4 main areas that bear on the budget:
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Unexpected disasters, financial
crises, military conflicts, etc. etc.
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
Then they made some assumptions:
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant Lower Higher
Rising GDPRising share of GDP
Stable
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
Then they made some assumptions:
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant Lower Higher Stable
Best-Case Scenario forMandatory Spending
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
A PROJECTION IS NOT A PREDICTION!
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant Lower Higher Stable
Best-Case Scenario forMandatory Spending
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
Why focus on mandatory spending?
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant Lower Higher Stable
Best-Case Scenario forMandatory Spending
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
Why focus on mandatory spending?
(1) It is, after all, mandatory.
So the first question is whether the problem is in the law or just in the budget.
(2) It is the majority of all spending.
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Mandatory spending $2.256
Discretionary spending $1.347
MANDATORY & DISCRETIONARY SPENDING, 2012Trillions of 2012 Dollars
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 8.5 (mandatory), table 8.7 (discretionary)
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
Why focus on mandatory spending?
(1) It is, after all, mandatory.
So the first question is whether the problem is in the law or just in the budget.
(2) It is the majority of all spending.
(3) It is the part of spending that is growing.
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19621963
19641965
19661967
19681969
19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
GROWTH IN MANDATORY & DISCRETIONARY SPENDING AS % GDP, 1962 - 2011
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue), table 8.5 (mandatory), table 8.7 (discretionary);http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls (GDP).
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
So, what was their projection in 2012?
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant Lower Higher Stable
Best-Case Scenario forMandatory Spending
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
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Historically high debt
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
How probable are these assumptions?
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant
Includes scheduledMedicare cuts
that are not actuallyexpected to occur
Lower
… as % GDPthan sincethe 1930s
Higher
21%-24% of GDP,new historic high(70-year high: 21%)
Assumes no impacton GDP growth
Stable
Obvious
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The most recent update (February 2013):
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant Lower
As low as 5.5% GDP,vs. the 40-year avg.
of 8.5%
Higher
About 19% of GDPover the next decade
Assumes no impacton GDP growth
Stable
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The most recent update (February 2013):
“If the current laws that govern federal taxes and spending do not change, the budget deficit will shrink this year to $845 billion, or 5.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), its smallest size since 2008. In CBO’s baseline projections, deficits continue to shrink over the next few years, falling to 2.4 percent of GDP by 2015.
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The most recent update (February 2013):
“Deficits are projected to increase later in the coming decade, however, because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt.
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The most recent update (February 2013):
“Deficits are projected to increase later in the coming decade, however, because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt.
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The most recent update (February 2013):
“Deficits are projected to increase later in the coming decade, however, because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt.
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The most recent update (February 2013):
“Deficits are projected to increase later in the coming decade, however, because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt.
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
The most recent update (February 2013):
“As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to remain historically high relative to the size of the economy for the next decade. By 2023, if current laws remain in place, debt will equal 77 percent of GDP and be on an upward path, CBO projects.”
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907-BudgetOutlook.pdf
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
There is clearly a problem with mandatory spending.
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Constant Lower Higher Stable
Even under implausibly favorable conditions everywhere else, there would still be historically high levels of debt
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
What other problems might there be?
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
What other problems might there be?
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Top Marginal Tax Rate
Revenue as % GDP
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue); http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=213 (marginal rates)
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SPENDING VS. REVENUE2011 - 2012
18% GDP
18% GDP
2011 spending 2011 revenue 2012 spending 2012 revenue$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
DiscretionaryMandatory
15.4% GDP
15.8% GDP
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue), table 8.5 (mandatory), table 8.7 (discretionary)
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SPENDING VS. REVENUE2011 - 2012
18% GDP
18% GDP
2011 spending 2011 revenue 2012 spending 2012 revenue$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
DiscretionaryMandatory
18% GDP
18% GDP
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue), table 8.5 (mandatory), table 8.7 (discretionary)
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
What other problems might there be?
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
Discretionary spending, 2011 (millions of 2011 dollars)
National defense $699,463 Education & social services $116,377
Transportation $90,951 Income security $71,087
Health $62,742 Veterans benefits $56,710
International affairs $48,769 Natural resources $43,595
Science & space $30,753 Community development $23,878
General $19,780 Energy $14,163
Agriculture $6,394 Social Security $5,888
Medicare $5,730
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 8.7 (discretionary)
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19621963
19641965
19661967
19681969
19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
GROWTH IN MANDATORY & DISCRETIONARY SPENDING AS % GDP, 1962 - 2011
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue), table 8.5 (mandatory), table 8.7 (discretionary);http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls (GDP).
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3. WHAT CAUSES DEBT TO GROW?
Is it a Revenue Problem or a Spending Problem?
MANDATORY SPENDING
DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
REVENUE EVERYTHING ELSE
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THE PLAN
1. What is Debt?
2. Why Worry About Debt?
3. What Causes Debt to Grow?
4. How Can Debt Be Controlled?
5. Discussion
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
There are Only 3 Possibilities:
Systemic Overhaul of Revenue
Systemic Overhaul of Spending
Both
Why “systemic”?
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
Option 1: Systemic Overhaul of Revenue
Historically, the US has collected about 18% of GDP in revenue.
In 2009 – 2012, spending averaged about 24% of GDP.
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue, spending, & deficit), http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43373-06-11-HouseholdIncomeandFedTaxes.pdf, table 2 (tax),"Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries," OECD 2008 (progressivity).
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
Option 1: Systemic Overhaul of Revenue
Historically, the US has collected about 18% of GDP in revenue.
In 2009 – 2012, spending averaged about 24% of GDP.
The US has the most progressive taxes of the OECD-24.
Generally, more progressive systems collect a smaller share of GDP.
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue, spending, & deficit), http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43373-06-11-HouseholdIncomeandFedTaxes.pdf, table 2 (tax),"Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries," OECD 2008 (progressivity).
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"Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries”
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2008
Austra
liaAus
tria
Belgium
Canad
a
Czech
Repub
lic
Denmark
Finland
France
German
y
Icelan
dIre
land
ItalyJa
panKore
a
Luxe
mbourg
Netherl
ands
New Zea
land
Norway
Poland
Slovak
Repub
lic
Sweden
Switzerla
nd
United
Kingdo
m
United
States
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Progressive Tax Rating
Ratio of tax share among the wealthiest 10% to their share of market income
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
Option 1: Systemic Overhaul of Revenue
Historically, the US has collected about 18% of GDP in revenue.
In 2009 – 2012, spending averaged about 24% of GDP.
The US has the most progressive taxes of the OECD-24.
Generally, more progressive systems collect a smaller share of GDP.
In 2009, the deficit was $1.412 trillion.
In 2009, the top 20% paid $1.429 trillion in taxes.
Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, table 1.3 (revenue, spending, & deficit), http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43373-06-11-HouseholdIncomeandFedTaxes.pdf, table 2 (tax),"Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries," OECD 2008 (progressivity).
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
Option 1: Systemic Overhaul of Revenue
So if the debt is to be handled via revenue, then either:
Radically more progressive taxes
Even after adjusting for income distribution, only the top 20% saw their share of total taxes rise since 1979.
Share of 2009 taxes, top 20%: 68%
If they had eliminated the deficit: 81%
Source: http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43373-06-11-HouseholdIncomeandFedTaxes.pdf, table 2.
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
Option 1: Systemic Overhaul of Revenue
So if the debt is to be handled via revenue, then either:
Radically more progressive taxes, or
Radically less progressive taxes
(like Denmark, for example)
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
Option 2: Systemic Overhaul of Spending
Most of mandatory spending is for healthcare and pensions
These are growing
The trustees of these programs report they are not sustainable, even with the cost-containment measures already provided for in the law
So if the debt is to be handled via spending, we must fundamentally change how people receive these services
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4. HOW CAN DEBT BE CONTROLLED?
Option 2: Systemic Overhaul of Spending
Most of mandatory spending is for healthcare and pensions
These are growing
The trustees of these programs report they are not sustainable, even with the cost-containment measures already provided for in the law
So if the debt is to be handled via spending, we must fundamentally change how people receive these services
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THE PLAN
1. What is Debt?
2. Why Worry About Debt?
3. What Causes Debt to Grow?
4. How Can Debt Be Controlled?
5. Discussion
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24 April 2013
D E B T AND THE D O C T O R
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