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CROATIAN ENERGY DAY

24. / 24th FORUM

DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ

EU ENERGY POLICY AFTER 21st CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES TO THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON

CLIMATE CHANGES (COP21)

27. studeni 2015, Zagreb

ENERGETSKA POLITIKA EU-A NAKON 21. KONFERENCIJE STRANAKA OKVIRNE KONVENCIJE UN-A O KLIMATSKIM

PROMJENAMA (COP21)

HRVATSKO ENERGETSKO DRUŠTVO

CROATIAN ENERGY ASSOCIATION

24. FORUM: DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ

24th FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIA

Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka Okvirne

konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama (COP21)

EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN

Framework Convention on Climate Changes (COP21)

27. Studeni 2015. / 27th November 2015

Mala dvorana „Vatroslav Lisinski“ / Small Hall “Vatroslav Lisinski”

Zagreb, Trg Stjepana Radića 4

Izdavač / Publisher:

Hrvatsko energetsko društvo

Zagreb, Savska cesta 163

Priredili / Edit by:

Dr. sc. Goran Granić Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić

Glavna i odgovorna urednica / Editor:

Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić

Pomoćnici glavne urednice / Assistants of the Editor:

Mr. sc. Sandra Antešević

Dinko Đurđević, mag. ing. oecoing.

Dizajn naslovnice / Cover design:

Martina Komerički Košarić, mag. oec.

Engleski prijevodi / English translations:

Dinko Đurđević, mag. ing. oecoing.

Tisak / Press:

AZP-Grafis

Samobor, Franjina 7

Autorska prava / Copyright:

Hrvatsko energetsko društvo

Zagreb, Savska cesta 163

Naklada / Edition:

250 primjeraka

Za sve navode u člancima odgovorni su isključivo autori. Authors are responsible for all statements made in their articles.

Sadržaj / Contents

PREDGOVOR .................................................................................................................................... 1

FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................... 3

Poziv Svjetskog energetskog vijeća na 21. Konferenciju stranaka ..................................................... 5

The World Energy Council's call to the 21st Conference of Parties ................................................... 6

ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE ......................................... 7

1. Goran Granić .......................................................................................................................... 8

2. Jacques de Jong ...................................................................................................................... 9

3. Jan Blomgren .......................................................................................................................... 9

4. Florian Haslauer ..................................................................................................................... 9

5. Stefan Ulreich .......................................................................................................................10

6. Marko Senčar .......................................................................................................................10

7. Philip Lewis ..........................................................................................................................11

8. Maja Božičević Vrhovčak ....................................................................................................12

9. Ivana Rogulj .........................................................................................................................13

10. Goran Majstrović ..................................................................................................................14

11. Matislav Majstrović ..............................................................................................................14

12. Elis Sutlović .........................................................................................................................14

13. Bernard Franković ................................................................................................................15

14. Paolo Blecich ........................................................................................................................15

15. Andreja Hustić ......................................................................................................................16

16. Bruno Židov .........................................................................................................................16

17. Marko Karan.........................................................................................................................17

18. Jurica Brajković ....................................................................................................................17

19. Maja Pokrovac ......................................................................................................................18

20. Mišo Mudrić .........................................................................................................................19

21. Vladimir Potočnik ................................................................................................................19

SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS .............................................................................20

1. Goran Granić i suradnici: Klimatska politika u uvjetima otvorenog tržišta / Climate policy in terms of open energy market ...............................………………...………………..……..........21

2. Jacques de Jong: Glavni izazovi politike EU u području klime i energije / Major EU policy challenge in climate and energy ………………………………..….……………………..……22

3. Jan Blomgren: Energija, sigurnost i profitabilnost – pozadinsko razmišljanje / Energy, safety and profitability – the thinking behind .......................................…………………………...….24

4. Florian Haslauer: Prošireni izazovi europske klimatske i energetske politike / Extended

challenges for the EU's climate and energy policy .......………..…………………………...…25

5. Peter Jørgensen: Iskustva danskog operatora prijenosnog sustava sa širokom integracijom vjetroelektrana / Danish TSO experiences with large scale integration of wind power .……...27

6. Stefan Ulreich: Sigurnost opskrbe: paneuropski pristup – prilike i zahtjevi veće suradnje kroz europsko tržište električne energije / Security of supply: A pan-european approach – the

opportunities and requirements of greater cooperation across European electricity markets.....28

7. Marko Senčar: EU energetsko tržište i regulacije ulaze u novi zakonski okvir: Energetska zajednica / EU energy market and regulation enter a new framework: Energy Union …..…....32

8. Philip Lewis: Podržavanje obveznog, ne poticanje nepraktičnog / Supporting the inevitable,

not pushing the impractical ……………...………………………….........................................33

9. Maja Božičević Vrhovčak, Ivana Rogulj: Emisije CO2 u Hrvatskoj 2050. godine: Koji je put

u niskougljičnu budućnost? / CO2 emissions in Croatia in 2050: What is the pathway to a low-

carbon future? .............................................................................................................................34

10. Goran Majstrović, Matislav Majstrović, Elis Sutlović: Očekivani budući uvjeti očuvanja sigurnog pogona sustava s velikom razinom integracije OIE / Expected future conditions for

secure power system operation with large scale of RES ............................................................35

11. Bernard Franković, Paolo Blecich, Andreja Hustić: Utjecaj uvođenja obnovljivih izvora energije na održivi razvoj energetskih sustava Republike Hrvatske s osvrtom na emisije stakleničkih plinova / Influence of implementation of renewable energy sources on sustainable development of energy system of the Republic of Croatia with focus on greenhouse gases ....36

12. Bruno Židov, Gordana Brlek, Jurica Brajković, Marko Karan: Potencijal smanjenja

emisija obnovom voznog parka u Hrvatskoj / Emission reduction potential with the renewal of

the vehicle fleet in Croatia .........................................................................................................38

13. Igor Grozdanić, Maja Pokrovac: Novi poslovni modeli opskrbe zelenom energijom na tržištu energije s učincima na smanjenje CO2 / New business models of green energy supply on the

energy market with the effects of reduction of CO2 ...................................................................40

14. Mišo Mudrić: Pravni okvir Istraživanja i eksploatacije ugljikovodika u hrvatskom dijelu Jadrana / Regulatory framework of Exploration and exploitation of Croatian part of Adriatic 41

15. Vladimir Potočnik: Zaštita klime i zapošljavanje u Hrvatskoj / Climate protection and employment in Croatia ...............................................................................................................43

HED 24. Forum Energetska politika EU-a nakon 21. konferencije stranaka

Okvirne konferencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama

HED 24th Forum EU Energy Policy after 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN 1


PREDGOVOR

Vrijeme održavanja ovogodišnjeg Foruma poklapa se s održavanjem 21. konferencije stranaka Okvirne konvencije UN-a o klimatskim promjenama (COP21) u Parizu. Za

energetski sektor, politički dogovor o zaštiti klime u Parizu, otvara raspravu kako realizirati klimatsku politiku smanjenja emisija CO2, odnosno kako osmisliti energetsku

politiku koja će se temeljiti na potpunoj primjeni politike zaštite klime.

Dok se u Parizu raspravlja o sadržaju i obvezama klimatske politike, Europska unija, koja podržava politiku zaštite klime, raspravlja o elementima provođenja klimatske i energetske

politike. U pogledu na Pariz u zraku lebdi pitanje, je li moguće postići dogovor o klimi, koji bi bio obvezujuć, pravedan i provediv? Vjerojatno bi većinski odgovor bio: teško, ali bi bilo nužno potrebno.

U čemu je problem da je tako teško postići obvezujuć dogovor o zaštiti klime?

Klimatski obvezujuć dogovor ima za posljedicu za svaku zemlju obvezu mijenjanja

energetske politike, uključivanje zaštite klime u troškove energije, mijenjanje tehnologija u cijelom lancu proizvodnje, transporta/prijenosa, distribucije i opskrbe energije, povećanje energetske učinkovitosti, proizvodnju energiju iz obnovljivih izvora i druge mjere koje

doprinose smanjenju emisija CO2. To će u početnoj fazi utjecati na povećanje troškova energije za gospodarstvo i građane, pa posredno na konkurentnost gospodarstva i standard građana.

Kada bi samo troškovi za energiju bili u pitanju, u čemu bi bile sve zemlje u jednakoj

poziciji, vjerojatno ne bi bilo većih problema u postizanju dogovora. Veći problem je razina smanjenja emisija za svaku zemlju i tu proizlaze i temeljne razlike između zemalja, od čega krenuti i na koju razinu doći u određenom vremenu. Početna pozicija nije jednaka,

odgovornost za sadašnju razinu emisija nije jednaka, razina tehnološkog razvoja nije jednaka, razina standarda i potrošnje energije nije jednaka, razina proizvodnje energije nije jednaka i ekonomska moć zemalja nije jednaka. Te nejednakosti čine i temeljni problem dogovora, posebno obvezujućeg i posebno ako bi za nepridržavanje bile uvedene sankcije.

Pregovori oko klimatskih promjena posredno otvaraju šire pitanje međunarodnih ekonomskih odnosa, redistribucije dodane vrijednosti i odnosa razvijenih i nerazvijenih,

bogatih i siromašnih društava. U kojoj mjeri postoji spremnost da se napravi iskorak prema pravednijem društvu jednakih šansi, ostaje kao pitanje za sve nas i za cijelu međunarodnu zajednicu. Izbjeglička kriza pokazuje da je spremnost za to još uvijek skromnih razmjera.





Forum će se baviti pitanjima provedbe klimatske politike, koja postaju temeljna u EU, ako

se definiraju obveze u razdoblju do 2050. godine. Evidentno teške posljedice nekonzistentne i neučinkovite politike u području obnovljivih izvora energije, traže definiranje novih mehanizama, s manje administrativnog upliva i vraćanje tržišnim temeljima odnosa u energetskom sektoru.

Zahvaljujem svima koji su pripremili referate i prezentacije za ovaj Forum. Nadam se da

će doprinijeti razumijevanju problema i traženju novih odnosa u realizaciji klimatske politike.

U Zagrebu, 27. Studenog 2015.

Predsjednik Hrvatskog energetskog društva

Dr.sc. Goran Granić





FOREWORD

This year's Forum coincides with 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework

Convention on Climate Changes (COP21) in Paris. For energy sector, political agreement

about climate change in Paris opens the discussion about realization of the climate policy

of CO2 emission reduction, with reference on conceiving an energy policy that will be

based on complete implementation of climate protection policy.

While content and commitments will be discussed in Paris, EU, which supports climate

protection policy, will be discussing about elements of climate and energy policy

implementation. In Paris the main question will be: is it possible to achieve an agreement

on climate change, that would be legally binding, fair and feasible? The majority answer

would probably be: difficult, but absolutely necessary.

What is the problem in achieving a legally binding agreement on climate policy?

Legally binding climate change agreement has its consequence – every country would be

legally bound to change its climate policy, include climate protection in energy costs,

modify or change technology in the entire manufacturing chain, transport/transfer,

distribution and energy supply, increase in energy efficiency, production of energy from

renewable energy sources and other measures that contribute to reduction of CO2

emissions. In the start-up phase, it will directly affect the citizens and entrepreneurship

with the increase in expenses and then the competitiveness of economy and living standard

of citizens.

Where it only for the expenses of energy in question, in which every country would be in

the same position, there probably would not be any problem in achieving of the agreement.

The larger problem lies in tresholds of emission reductions for every country, which

produces the differences between countries – from which level to start and to which level

to get to in certain amount of time. The starting point is not the same, responsibility for the

current emission levels is not the same, the level of technical development is not the same,

the level of standard and energy consumption is not the same, the level of energy

production is not the same and the economic power of every country is not the same. These

disparities make the fundamental problem of the potential agreement, especially of the one

that would be binding and especially if it would be agreed that there would be sanctions for

not holding up to the agreement.

Negotiations on climate changes indirectly open the broader question on international

economic relations, redistribution of added value and relations between developed and

undeveloped, wealthy and poor societies. The question for all of us and the entire

international community remains, in which extent will there be readiness to make the first

step towards society that is more just. Refugee crisis shows us that the readiness for such

extent is still very modest.





The Forum will deal with the questions of climate policy implementation, which are

becoming fundamental in the EU, where the obligations in the period until 2050 is defined.

Evidently severe consequences of the inconsistent and inefficient policy regarding the

renewable energy sources need to be defined with new mechanisms, less political influence

and the return to market-based relations in energy sector.

Thank you all for the preparation of your papers and presentations for this Forum. I hope

that they will contribute to understanding of the problem and in the search of new relations

in the realization of climate policy.

Zagreb, 27th November 2015

Chairman of the Croatian Energy Association

Goran Granić, PhD





Poziv Svjetskog energetskog vijeća na 21. Konferenciju stranaka

Nužna akcija zahtijeva solidarnost ispred dogmatike.

Svjetsko energetsko vijeće, koje predstavlja preko 3000 organizacija iz vlada, privatnih i javnih poduzeća, sveučilišta, nevladinih udruga i dionike povezanih s energetikom, poziva na stvaranje

jasnog puta iz Pariza, koji će prekinuti rastuću nesigurnost koja je bila sjenka nad energetskim sektorom dugi niz desetljeća. Energetska zajednica hitno treba:

· Jasan plan određivanja cijene ugljičnih emisija u skladu s globalnim ciljevima, koji će svima omogućiti učinkovito donošenje ekonomskih odluka. Od svih mjera koje su

trenutno pod raspravom u Parizu, to je ključni prioritet. Pozivamo na odlučan pragmatizam svih strana u dostavljanju takvog dogovora, koji će omogućiti značajnu trenutnu akciju prije dogmatike.

· Predvidljivu politiku i ujednačen regulatorni okvir kako bi se otvorila mogućnost ulaganja za osiguravanje dostupne, sigurne i održive energije. Smanjenje rizika politike

je presudno.

· Ključna akcija na regionalnoj i nacionalnoj razini. Samo usvajanje snažnog i uravnoteženog nacionalnog energetskog okvira politike može pružiti značajan napredak. Dodatak plana pod nazivom Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) u

pregovore je važan korak. Međutim, prevođenje međunarodnih ciljeva za energiju na nacionalnu razinu zahtijeva pristup pod nazivom Energy Trillema, koji uravnotežuje potrebe energetske sigurnosti, okoliša i socijalni program.

Očito je da se ne krećemo u smjeru „2 stupnja Celzijeva“. Scenariji pokazuju da će emisije daleko prijeći gornju granicu potrebnu za održivi put, čak uz postojeću tehnologiju, trenutne politike i poznatu brzinu inovativnosti. To će uzrokovati visoke troškove i pritisak na globalnu

ekonomiju, što će imati značajan utjecaj na sve nas.

Rastući broj pojavljivanja ekstremnih vremenskih uvjeta utječe na ključnu energetsku strukturu već danas. Učestalost pojavljivanja ekstremnih vremenskih uvjeta se učetverostručila u zadnjih 30 godina i ovaj trend i njegovi utjecaji će se nastaviti bez mjera ublažavanja i prilagodbe. Naš rad prikazuje da su energetski predvodnici u Aziji, Africi i Amerikama pretežito zabrinuti zbog

rastućeg broja pojavljivanja ekstremnih vremenskih uvjeta koji ugrožavaju ključnu infrastrukturu i predstavljaju prijetnju socijalnom i ekonomskom razvoju.

Potreban je povijesni energetski prijelaz. Energetski sektor je srž rješenja i bit će osnova za uspješan energetski prijelaz. Kako bi se ubrzao ovaj prijelaz, potreban je značajan angažman sa energetskim sektorom i veći dijalog između političkih i poslovnih voditelja kako bi se odredili prioriteti i ključne akcije na dugom putu koji započinje u Parizu.

Globalna energetska zajednica će se okupiti na Svjetskom energetskom kongresu u Istanbulu

u 2016. godini gdje ćemo se obvezati prihvatiti ovu novu granicu. Svjetsko energetsko vijeće poziva stranke u Parizu na slaganje o jasnom, jednoznačnom i nepristranom klimatskom okviru i shemi određivanja cijena ugljičnih emisija kao bi se omogućilo energetskom sektoru dostavljanje potrebnog energetskog prijelaza za najveću korist svih.





The World Energy Council's call to the 21st Conference of Parties

Urgent action requires solidarity beyond dogmatism.

The World Energy Council, representing over 3000 organisations from governments, private and

state companies, academia, NGOs and energy-related stakeholders, is calling for a clear pathway

from Paris that will end the growing uncertainty that has cast a shadow over the energy sector for

many decades. The energy community urgently needs:

· A clear carbon pricing scheme in line with the global objectives that will allow all to

make efficient economic decisions. Of all the measures currently being undertaken on the

ground and discussed in Paris, this is the key priority. We call for determined pragmatism

from all sides to deliver such a deal that enables significant on-going action beyond

dogmatism.

· Predictable policy and balanced regulatory frameworks to unlock the needed

investment to ensure affordable, reliable and sustainable energy. Reducing policy risk is

critical.

· Crucial action at regional and national level. Only the adoption of strong and balanced

national energy policy frameworks can provide substantive progress. The addition of the

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions track to the negotiations is an important

step. However, translating the international objective to the national level for energy

requires an Energy Trilemma approach, which balances the needs of energy security,

environment and social agenda.

It is clear that we are not on a 2 degree Celsius track. Our Scenarios show that, with existing

technologies, current policies and known rates of innovation, emissions will peak well above the

levels required for a sustainable pathway. This will cause both cost and stress on the global

economy that will have a significant impact for us all.

The increasing number of extreme weather events affect critical energy infrastructure today.

The frequency of extreme weather events has quadrupled over the past 30 years and this trend and

its effects will continue without decisive mitigation and adaptation measures. Our work shows that

energy leaders in Asia, Africa and Americas are particularly concerned about the rising number of

extreme weather events that are putting critical infrastructures at risk and threatening social and

economic development.

A historic energy transition is needed. The energy sector is core to the solution and will be

fundamental to the successful energy transition. To accelerate this transition requires meaningful

engagement with the energy sector and greater dialogue between policy and business leaders to

prioritise and bring to scale critical actions on the long road from Paris.

The global energy community will gather at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul in 2016

where we commit to embrace this new frontier. The World Energy Council calls on the Parties

in Paris to agree on a clear, unambiguous and equitable climate framework and carbon pricing

scheme to enable the energy sector to deliver the needed energy transition for the greatest benefit of

all.





ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE





Goran Granić

Born: 18 April 1950 in Baška Voda, Republic of Croatia

Education:

1979 Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb

1976 M.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb

1972 B.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb

Professional experience:

2004 – Present Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb

§ Manager

2000 – 2003 Government of the Republic of Croatia

§ Deputy president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia

§ Vice-president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia

1994 – 1999 Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb

§ Manager

1992 – 1995 Parliament of the Republic of Croatia

§ First Vice-president of the Croatian Parliament

§ Member of the Croatian Parliament

§ Chairman of the Committee for Physical Planning and Environmental

Protection

1991 – 1992 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb

§ Advisor in the Institute for Electric Power Research

1990 – 1991 HEP (Croatian Electric Utility), Zagreb

§ First General manager of HEP

1987 – 1990 ZEOH (Electricity Company of Croatia), Zagreb

§ Manager of Development Department, Member of Development

Department Board

1973 – 1987 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb

§ Deputy manager of Study Department

§ Director of the study unit

Other:

§ more than 160 publications in the field of energy sector planning

§ Chairman of the Croatian Energy Association (HED – CEA) – WEC National Committee

§ Member and Secretary-General of the Croatian Technical Academy 2006 – 2012





Jacques de Jong

Jacques de Jong has a long experience in government energy policy

making. After completing economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam, he

joined the Dutch ministry of Economics in 1971, working on EU issues and

since 1973 on international oil policy, including on the IEA and

consumer/producer dialogues. In 1980 he became deputy director for

Electricity, responsible for nuclear energy policies and coal and holding

several international positions in EU- and OECD fora. Since the mid 1990’s he acted as account manager for the energy utility sector and was

instrumental in the liberalisation process and the drafting of Dutch policy on

legislation. In 1998 he was appointed first director of the Office for Energy Regulation. He was

active in EU affairs, including as a co-founder of the CEER (Council of European Energy

Regulators) and chairing various working groups. Since 1st January 2003 Mr. de Jong is continuing

his non-executive functions as a senior fellow at the CIEP, the Clingendael International Energy

Program. He has published a number of papers etc. since then (http://www.clingendaelenergy.com

/publications), on areas such as electricity market designs, regional energy policies, gas supply

security architectures and EU energy policy issues.

Jan Blomgren

Jan Blomgren is CEO and founder of INBEx (Institute of Nuclear

Business Excellence), providing independent nuclear executive advice and

business leadership development globally. The INBEx team comprises over

20 former CEOs, Director Generals and similar.

He has previously been professor in applied nuclear physics at Uppsala

University, strategist for nuclear competence at Vattenfall, and Director of

the Swedish Nuclear Technology Centre.

Florian Haslauer

Florian Haslauer is Global Head Utilities of A.T. Kearney since 2014.

Prior to that, he was leading the EMEA Utilities Practice of A.T. Kearney.

Florian Haslauer is working 24 years with the firm and since 2001 as

Partner. He has been leading successful consulting project for many of the

large European and Global Utilities. Main focus of the projects has been

Strategic Development, Business Optimization, Restructuring, Preparation

for Market liberalization and adaption of regulatory framework for Power

and Gas Utilities.

Additionally to his consulting, Florian Haslauer conducted several market studies on the

development of the European Power and Gas markets and the Global Energy markets. He has been

acting as Energy market expert in expert hearings in the European Parliament and in the German

Parliament. He earned a PHD from the Technical University in Graz, Austria.





Peter Jørgensen

Peter Jørgensen holds a M.Sc. Mech. Eng. and has been employed in the Danish power supply industry for more than 25 years. Peter Jørgensen has

been responsible for planning of the Danish electricity system as well as

opening of the electricity market. He has represented Denmark in the

international TSO organisations Nordel, ETSO and ENTSO-E with respect to

system development and electricity markets. Peter Jørgensen’s current responsibilities include development of the international electricity

infrastructure and electricity markets with focus on integration of renewable

energy. He is also in charge of Energinet.dk's international consultancy

services.

Stefan Ulreich

Dr. Stefan Ulreich works for E.ON SE in Düsseldorf in the team of Political Affairs and Corporate Communications with a special focus on

Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency within the EU. Dr Stefan Ulreich

is the Chair of the WEC’s (World Energy Council) Global Energy Frameworks partnership with Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) and

advisor of the WEC vice-chair Leonhard Birnbaum. He is also a member of

the WEC’s Programme Committee and Rules of Trade Knowledge Network.

Marko Senčar

Marko Senčar works as a Seconded national expert in the Director’s Office of the Agency for Cooperation of Energy Regulators. He participates in

several projects, especially in monitoring and cooperation with Energy

Community Secretariat. Prior to this, he was deputy managing director of

Energy Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, responsible for international

activities and a member of CEER and ACER Board of Regulators. Before that

he worked for around three years as a Director of Directorate for energy

supply, where he managed the preparation of energy legislation for market

introduction end establishment the national regulatory authority.





Philip Lewis

Philip Lewis is a leading international expert in customer centric

behavioural, competitive and smart issues in the global energy market. He

has 18 years of experience in over 60 markets in 5 continents for 500+

organisations. He is a member of the World Economic Forum Global

Agenda Council on the Future of Electricity 2014-2016 and also a co-

founder and board member of the Smart Energy Demand Coalition

(SEDC). Philip Lewis is named among top 40 most influential people in

Smart Grid in Europe by Metering International 2014. He is head of

marketing research and analysis for the UK based retailing subsidiary of

Amoco (BP) and Seeboard (EDF) during the onset of competition in the British retail energy

market. Philip Lewis holds a PhD from the University of Edinburgh.





Maja Božičević Vrhovčak

Born: 17 April 1972 in Republic of Croatia

Education:

§ 2005 – Ph.D. Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering

and Computing, University of Zagreb

§ 2000 – M.Sc. Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering

and Computing, University of Zagreb

§ 1996 – Dipl. Ing. Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Electrical

Engineering and Computing, University of Zagreb


10/2007 – Present Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)

§ Executive director


§ Project Leader

3/2008 – 12/2008 Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)

§ Renewable energy sources and Energy

efficiency key expert

2/2007 – 9/2007 Society for Sustainable Development Design (DOOR)

§ National expert

10/1996 – 10/2007 Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

§ Researcher, lecturer

11/1996 – 5/2008 Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

§ Task leader

Other:

§ Lecturing experience in:

o Energy Technologies; Renewable Energy Sources; Energy and Environment;

Energy Management, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb

§ Membership of professional bodies: IEEE, CIGRE (International Council on Large Electric

Systems) – Croatian branch, Croatian Energy Society, Croatian Society for Air Protection,

Croatian Solar Energy Society





Ivana Rogulj

Born: 4 January 1983 in Republic of Croatia

Education and training:

§ 2013 – Univ.spec. in Ecoengineering, Centre for postgraduation

studies, University of Zagreb

§ 2013 – EU funds projects manager, Experta business school,

Zagreb

§ 2011 – Solar energy course, Faculty of mechanical design and

naval architecture, University of Zagreb

§ 2010 – Certified measurement and verification professional,

Efficiency valuation organization

§ 2007 – Mr.Sc. in Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing,

University of Zagreb



§ Project Manager

2012 – 05/2013 HEP ESCO ltd.

§ Head of Marketing and Information Unit

2011 – 2012 HEP ESCO ltd.

§ Acting Director

2007 – 2011 HEP ESCO ltd.

§ Project Manager

Other:

§ experienced in project management, unit management and acting management of small

enterprise (19 employees)

§ currently managing project with participation of project partners with various backgrounds

and expertise levels

§ 8 years of volunteering experience





Goran Majstrović

Goran Majstrović is Head of Transmission and Distribution Department in

Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb, Croatia where he has been working

since 1998. His Institute was officially appointed by the Government as

professional support to Croatian Energy Regulatory Council for four years.

Field of his interest is transmission system planning and analysis as well as

electricity market design. He’s been actively participating in many international projects as a consultant, mainly in South East Europe. As an

author or co-author he published more than 100 studies and more than 90

papers. He received his PhD in 2007 at Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Split where

he received status of Research Associate Scientist in 2009 and Research Scientist in 2011. He also

serves as associate lecturer at Faculty of Economy Rijeka at postgraduate study in Energy

Economics. Since 2008 he is lecturer at European University Institute in Florence, Italy, Robert

Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, Florence Summer School of Regulation of Energy Utilities.

He is member of Scientific Council for Energy of Croatian Academy of Science and Art.

Matislav Majstrović

Matislav Majstrovic was born in Dragljane, Croatia, on December 24, 1949.

He graduated B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of

Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering in Croatia He received his M.S. and

Ph.D. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the University of Zagreb, Faculty

of Electrical Engineering 1979 and 1986, respectively. He is currently a senior

research scientist at Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb and a full tenure

professor at University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering. His research

interests include Power System Analysis, Implementation of fuzzy system

theory and genetic algorithm into Electrical Power System Analysis, Distributed generation,

Restructuring of Electrical Energy Sector. He is a member of IEEE, IASTED, CIGRE, WEC and

Energy Association of Croatia.

Elis Sutlović

Elis Sutlovic was born in Šibenik, Croatia, on April 17, 1961. He received

B.S. and Ph.D. from the University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering

1984 and 2001, respectively. He obtained his MSEE in Electrical Engineering

from the University of Zagreb in Croatia 1993. He is currently a full professor

at University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering. His dominant

research interest is Power System Planning and Power System Analysis. He is

a member of CIGRE, and Energy Association of Croatia.





Bernard Franković

Bernard Franković graduated in 1971. on Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Rijeka. He got his master's degree in the field of mechanics

and defended his thesis on the same Faculty in 1990. Research for his

doctoral disertation as Fulbright scholar was published on City University of

New York, USA. From 1972 he is constantly employed on the Faculty of

Mechanical-Naval Architecture (now Faculty of Engineering) of the

University in Rijeka. In 1998 he was chosen as full professor. He was dean of

the Faculty in mandates and performed the tasks of Supervisor of the

Department of Thermodynamics and Energy Engineering in four mandates.

Key areas of his interests are thermodynamics, renewable energy sources, thermotechnical and

thermoenergetic systems. He published 150 science and technical papers, is author in several

scientific studies and numerous projects. He is a member in several international and domestic

science and professional organisations, associations and bodies. He is a member of The Scientific

Council for Maritime Affairs (HAZU), Scientific Council for Power Supply (HAZU) and a regular

memeber of Croatian Academy of Engineering. He is vice president of International Solar Energy

Society, ISES Europe, Freiburg. He is a member of International Institute of Refrigeration, Pariz i

American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning, Atlanta. For his scientific work,

he received numerous recognitions and awards, which are: City of Rijeka Award (1999), Hrvoje

Požar annual award (2000), Annual Science Award (2001) and Rikard Podhorsky annual award

(2008).

Paolo Blecich

Paolo Blecich graduated in 2003 on Faculty of Engineering in Rijeka.

He defended his doctoral thesis in 2014 on the same Faculty. He is

employed on Faculty of Engineering in Rijeka as Senior Assistant on

courses Thermodynamics 1, Thermodynamics 2, Heat Exchangers,

Thermodynamics of Mixtures, Numerical Methods in Design and Gas

Engineering. Within postgraduate study, he specialized on Istituto per le

Tecnologie della Costruzione (ITC-CNR) in Padova, Italy (2012). His area

of interests are heat exchangers, renewable energy sources, numerical

modeling in thermodynamics, thermotechnical systems of energy efficient buildings. He published

around 20 science and technical papers. He is a member of International Solar Energy Society -

ISES Europe, Freiburg. He was awarded with Rector's award (2008) and Hrvoje Požar award (2009) for notable master’s thesis in the field of energetics.





Andreja Hustić

Andreja Hustić graduated in 1998 on Faculty of Economics and Business in

Zagreb. On completion of her study, she starts working in Croatian Electricity

Company (HEP) in Directorate for Economic Affairs. Since March 2003, she is

on position of independent economist in Sector for development, where she

actively participated in several numerous projects (sustainable development of

energy sector, energy strategy, energy efficiency). Since July 2006, she is

employed in Croatian Transmission System Operator (HOPS) in Sector for

management of electrical power system and market as head of Department for

accounting of electricity. Key areas of her interests are electricity market, sustainable development

of energy sector, renewable energy sources, energy efficiency. She is a 3rd year PhD student on

postgraduate doctoral study Management of Sustainable Development of the University in Rijeka.

She is a member of Croatian national committee of International council on large electric systems

(HRO CIGRÉ). She published numerous papers on professional congress' and international

conferences.

Bruno Židov

Bruno Židov (born 8th June 1988) holds a Master Degree in Mechanical

Engineering from the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval

Architecture in Zagreb. He works at the Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar within the Department for Energy System Planning since 2012. His area of activity

within the Institute, among other things, includes energy systems modelling

and planning, energy consumption balance conduction, emissions from

energy systems calculation and sectoral evaluation of energy efficiency. He

actively participates in several European projects and has been leading

several projects related to sustainable energy development. Main focus of

multi-year research as PhD student at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval

Architecture has been analysis of the corrosion and degradation phenomena, the stability of the

material, the applicability of organic photovoltaics, etc. Additionally to his PhD study Bruno Židov is student at the postgraduate specialist study Economics of the energy sector at the Faculty of

Economics in Rijeka. He is a member of the Croatian Energy Association and the Croatian Society

for Materials Protection.





Marko Karan

Marko Karan holds MA in Economics and is permanently appointed to

senior consultant position at the Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, primarily covering and leading energy economics and finance consulting assignments.

With more than 8 years of professional experience he has been engaged in

more than 60 projects. Consulting assignments he has covered include: market

research, business strategy development, regulatory economics of energy

sector, project due diligence and investment appraisal, restructuring and

business process improvement, and development and implementation of

different financing options and mechanisms.

In past few years his focus is on renewable energy and energy efficiency projects which he

covered through assignments of regulatory economics, capacity building, project due diligence and

development and implementation of RES and EE finance facilities. In his carrier he has consulted

clients ranging from governments, ministries, governmental institutions and agencies, private and

national energy and utilities companies, private equity funds, international development

organizations (i.e. The World Bank Group, UNECE, UN – FAO, USAID), international financial

institutions (i.e. EBRD, EIB, KfW), private equity and investment funds, and commercial financial

institutions (i.e. Intesa Sanpaolo Group, Unicredit Group).

Jurica Brajković

Jurica Brajković is an economy expert with over ten years of experience in the energy sector. The main areas of Mr. Brajković's work are the economic and financial analysis in the energy sector. As an economy expert, Mr.

Brajković has participated in several projects in the areas of electricity, gas

and district heating sector for a variety of local and international clients.

Jurica Brajković gained his degree of Doctor of Science in Economics in

2010 on the University of Southampton (United Kingdom) and the title of

graduate in economics and a Master of Science in economics from Boston

University (USA) in 2001.





Igor Grozdanić

Igor Grozdanić, energy engineer and economist, finished a postgraduate study on Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering and

postgraduate study on Faculty of Economics and Business. He graduated

electrical energy studies on Faculty of Electrical Engineering. He is the CEO

and one of the owners of company Sunce i partneri d.o.o. He is working on

green energy supply, renewable energy and natural gas market projects. He is

working as a consultant on Eco Ltd. and Council of Europe projects.

As author and co-author, he published a dozen science and professional

papers abroad and in Croatia, in the field of energy and energy economy. He also participated in

drafting of several studies. In 2002, he received Hrvoje Požar award for his master’s thesis in the field of energy. He is an active memeber of HSUP and HSUSE. He speaks fluent English and

knows German.

Maja Pokrovac

Maja Pokrovac holds Master of Science title in Public policy and is

currently a student of a postgraduate specialist study Energy Economics.

In Croatian Employers' Association she established Energy Association

and Coordination for renewable energy sources which gathers entrepreneurs

and creates conditions for introducing a new meaning of entrepreneurs in

energy industry. The need to define and organize enterpreneurship in energy

sector through production and implementation of decentralized and distributed

production plants based on energy from renewable sources.

Maja takes the stance for public-private dialogue, the need for discussion/debate on energy

enterpreneurship and creating an environment for active access to renewable energy sources in

Croatia. In order to implement initiated projects in energy enterpreneurship, she works as an

advisor to Minister of enterpreneurship and crafts.





Mišo Mudrić

Dr. Sc. Mišo Mudrić works as Senior Assistant in Department of Maritime and Transport Law of Faculty of Law of University in Zagreb. He

holds classes Maritime and General Transport Law and Insurance Law. In

2007 he works as a collaborator on a scientific project „Croatian Transport Law and the Challenges of EU Single Market“. Since 2013 he works as a collaborator on international scientific project „MARSAFENET” in which he also participates as member of the Executive Committee. He is arbiter in

Permanent Elected Court at the Croatian Chamber of Economy. He is also

The Secretary General of the Croatian Association of Insurance Law and member of Governing

board of the same Association. At the same time he is a member of Croatian Association for

Insurance Law. He defended his doctoral disertation on Faculty of Law of University of Hamburg

and conducted his research on Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International

Law, Hamburg, Germany.

Vladimir Potočnik

Vladimir Potočnik was born in 1936 in Travnik. In 1960 graduated from

the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture in Zagreb,

where he won a master's degree in 1975. He was employed at the

Elektroprojekt, Zagreb from 1960 to 2001, where he participated in and led

more than one hundred projects in Croatia and abroad. He initiated a number

of projects in Croatia and participates in defining waste management strategy

and legislation in Croatia. He has published more than 80 papers in

professional publications and proceedings of the meetings. He is also the

author of two books. He is active in more professional associations for energy and environment.





SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS





Dr.sc. Goran Granić i suradnici

Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar

KLIMATSKA POLITIKA U UVJETIMA OTVORENOG TRŽIŠTA

Sažetak

U radu su opisani ciljevi i pristup analizi utjecaja klimatske politike na razvoj energetskog sektora.

Analiza je obuhvatila ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine, po sektorima i ukupno, uz

osvrt na proteklih 5-10 godina. Dana je analiza razvoja energetskih tržišta u uvjetima smanjenja emisija CO2, te analiza finalne potrošnje za RH u razdoblju do 2050 godine. Prezentirana je analiza mjera i načina provođenja mjera, te potencijala mjera za smanjenje emisija CO2. Dane su ocjene

ekonomsko-financijskih pokazatelja provođenja mjera. Posebno su analizirana ograničenja: tehnološka, energetska, ekonomska, organizacijska i institucionalna u realizaciji ciljeva smanjenja emisija CO2, kao i rizik u provođenju mjera. Važni dijelovi politike smanjenja emisija CO2 su:

tehnološki razvoj, očekivanja i mogući rizici ne ostvarivanja ciljeva. Važna pretpostavka realizacije planova smanjenja emisija CO2 je institucionalna organiziranost u kreiranju energetske politike i

provođenju mjera, u kojoj je značajna mjera formiranje Ministarstva energetike, zaštite okoliša i klimatskih promjena. Na kraju su dane preporuke temeljene na provedenoj analizi.

CLIMATE POLICY IN TERMS OF OPEN ENERGY MARKET

Abstract

This paper describes the objectives and approach to the climate policy impact analysis on the

development of energy sector. The analysis included the goals for CO2 emission reduction until

2050, by sectors and in total, with reference to last 5-10 years. The analysis of energy market

development in terms of CO2 emission reduction is given, and also the analysis of the final

consumption for Croatia in period until 2050. The analysis of measures, of the manner in which the

measures are carried out and of the potential of measures for CO2 emission reduction is presented.

Estimations of economic and financial indicators for measurement implementation are given.

Technological, energy, economic, organizational and institutional limitations are specifically

analysed as part of objectives realisation of CO2 emission reduction, as is the risk of measurement

implementation. The important parts of CO2 emission reduction policy are: technological

development, expectations and possible risks of not achieving the set objectives. The important

assumption of CO2 emission reduction objective realisation is institutional organisation of creation

of energy policy and measurement implementation, in which the important measure is the forming

of Ministry of energy, environment protection and climate change. At the end, recommendations

are given, based on the performed analysis.





Jacques de Jong

Clingendael International Energy Programme

GLAVNI IZAZOV POLITIKE EU U PODRUČJU KLIME I ENERGIJE

Sažetak

EU energetska politika suočava se s dva glavna izazova implementacije koncepta Energetske unije

o Transformacija energetskog sustava prema niskougljičnoj energetskoj ekonomiji o Upravljanje energetskim politikama EU, regionalne i nacionalne razine

· Problemi tranformacije:

o Tržišta i sustavi električne energije morat će se prilagoditi povećanoj količini OIE

§ Veliki utjecaji na tržište i zakonodavni nacrt § Operativni sustav mora postati presudni faktor

o Potrebna prerada energetskog sektora

§ Problem postojećih tvornica na konvencionalna goriva

§ Nova ravnoteža između ponude i potražnje

§ Uloga krajnjih korisnika

o Određeni konkretni unosi u rasprave na razini EU

· Problem upravljanja:

o Uloga EU naspram uloge regija i zemalja članica

§ EU razina

§ Regionalni pristupi

§ Nacionalne razine

o Određeni konkretni unosi u rasprave na razini EU





MAJOR EU POLICY CHALLENGE IN CLIMATE AND ENERGY

Abstract

EU energy policy faces two major challenges implementing the Energy Union concept

o The transformation of the energy system towards a low-carbon energy economy

o The governance of the energy policies at EU, regional and national levels

· The transformation issue:

o Electricity markets and systems will need to adapt increasing amounts of RES

§ Major impacts on market- and regulatory designs

§ System operation to become a critical factor

o The energy sector will need to re-invent itself

§ The issue of existing fossil fuel plants

§ The new balance between supply and demand

§ The role of end-consumers

o Some concrete inputs into the debate at EU-level

· The governance issue

o The role of the Union versus the roles of the regions and the member states

§ The EU level

§ The regional approaches

§ The national levels

o Some concrete inputs into the debate at EU level





Jan Blomgren

INBEx

ENERGIJA, SIGURNOST I PROFITABILNOST – POZADINSKO RAZMIŠLJANJE

Sažetak

Energetska industrija je pod velikim financijskim pritiskom u većini Europe. To potiče strožu kontrolu cijene. Tradicionalni pristup u procjeni investicija podrazumijeva uporabu analiza

troškova i dobiti u svrhu izračuna profitabilnosti, u kombinaciji sa analizom rizika sa stanovišta sigurnosti. Analiza rizika je uglavnom temeljena na vjerojatnosti i posljedicama različitih potencijalnih nezgoda. Međutim, zaključili smo da ovaj pristup ima ograničenja u usporedbi s različitim tehnologijama proizvodnje. U ovom radu predstavljeno je razmišljanje o filozofskoj razlici između energetskih tehnologija u kojima jedna nezgoda može uništiti cijelu tvrtku (hidroenergetsku, nuklearnu) naspram onih koje nisu u opasnosti od izravnog gašenja (na fosilna

goriva, biogoriva, energiju vjetra). To ne utječe samo na ekonomiju i tehnologiju, već također na cjelokupni i sigurnosni menadžment. Bit će raspravljeno o uzajamnom djelovanju tehnoloških izazova i menadžmenta, naročito onih koji se odnose na apekt profitabilnosti te će biti korišteni primjeri tehnologija s visokim potencijalnim rizikom.

ENERGY, SAFETY AND PROFITABILITY – THE THINKING BEHIND

Abstract

The energy industry is under heavy financial pressure in large parts of Europe. This motivates an

even stricter cost control. The traditional approach in assessing investments is to use cost-benefit

analysis for the profitability, in combination with risk-informed analysis for safety aspects. Risk-

informed analysis is normally based on the probabilities and consequences of various potential

accidents. However, we have realized this approach has limitations in comparisons between

different production technologies. In this talk, some thinking about the philosophical difference

between energy technologies in which a single accident can wipe out the entire company (hydro,

nuclear) versus those not facing the same threat of immediate extinction (fossil, bio, wind) is

presented. This affects not only the economy and technology, but also the management in general

and safety management in particular. The interplay of technology challenges and management, in

particular concerning profitability aspects, will be developed and examples from technologies with

large potential risks will be used for illustration.





Florian Haslauer

A.T. Kearney Management Consultants

PROŠIRENI IZAZOVI EUROPSKE KLIMATSKE I ENERGETSKE POLITIKE

Sažetak

Tržišno pokretane klimatske i energetske politike su daleko učinkovitije nego politika pokretana propisima. Vrijeme je da EU promisli o svojoj energetskoj strategiji.

Svijet je razdoblju globalne energetske promjene, zbog činjenice da zemlje nastoje zadovoljiti rastuću potražnju promjenama unutar temelja svojih energetskih sektora. Očekuje se da će se svjetska energetska potražnja povećati za 1,4 % do 2030. godine, sa porastom potražnje električne energije (obnovljivi izvor) za više od 2 % tijekom tog perioda.

Europska Unija je u vodećoj poziciji u ovoj energetskoj promjeni, težeći ostvarenju triju klimatskih i energetskih ciljeva do 2020. godine: (1) smanjenju CO2 emisija, (2) povećanju obnovljivih izvora

energije i (3) povećanju energetske učinkovitosti. Većina zemalja uspijeva ostvariti prva dva cilja, ali se pokazalo da je ostvarenje trećeg cilja vrlo teško. Jedan od glavnih uzroka tome je nepostojanje jedinstvenog Europskog energetskog tržišta. Energetske politike i regulative su još uvijek vođene individualnim državama. Ukoliko se to nastavi, EU energetska promjena će imati visok trošak – cijene će narasti i to će imati loš utjecaj na svjetsku konkurentnost.

Vrijeme je da EU počne raditi kao jedinstvena zajednica i usvoji politiku pokretanu tržištem. Prednosti uključuju lakšu energetsku promjenu u rastućoj ekonomiji, sposobnost iskorištavanja veličine za konkurentniju cijenu energije i manje cijene za potrošače. U idealnom scenariju, EU cilj za smanjenje CO2 emisija je najvažniji, a zatim dolaze preostala dva – obnovljivi izvori energije i

energetska učinkovitost – koji se ponašaju kao poluga za ostvarenje glavnog cilja. U osnovi, tržište određuje koja su rješenja najučinkovitija.

Tržišno pokretana energetska strategija financirana je iz ovlaštenog tržišta CO2 emisija – kako bi se

dobili pravi cjenovni signali – ili pomoću CO2 poreza kako bi se dodijelile cjenovne vrijednosti

CO2 emisijama. Umjesto koncentriranja sredstava za tarife, sredstva su usmjerena prema

poboljšanju energetske učinkovitosti, istraživanju i razvoju obnovljivih izvora energije i pokrenutim pilot programima. Na taj način EU potiče inovacije i financiranje je daleko manje nego što se danas troši na obnovljive izvore energije.





EXTENDED CHALLENGES FOR THE EU’S CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY

Abstract

Market-driven climate and energy policies are far more effective than regulation-driven policies. It

is time for the EU to rethink its energy strategy.

The world is in the throes of a global energy transition as countries seek to meet rising demand by

fundamentally changing their energy sectors. Global energy demand is expected to increase by 1.4

percent through 2030, with demand for electricity (a renewable) rising by more than 2 percent

during this time period.

The European Union has been front and centre in this energy transition, seeking to meet three

climate and energy targets by 2020: (1) reduce CO2 emissions, (2) increase renewables, and (3)

become more energy efficient. Most countries are on track to meet the first two targets but meeting

the third one has proved to be more difficult. This is largely because there is no single European

power market. Energy policies and regulations are still driven by individual nations. If this

continues, the EU energy transition will be costly—prices will shoot up and global competitiveness

will suffer.

It’s time for the EU to work as one large entity and adopt market-driven policies. The advantages

include a smoother energy transition in a growing economy, ability to leverage size for more

competitive energy costs, and lower prices for consumers. In an ideal scenario, there is one

overriding EU target for reducing CO2 emissions, and then the other two—renewables and energy

efficiency—act as levers to meet that target. Essentially, the market decides which solutions are the

most efficient.

A market-driven energy strategy is funded from a CO2-emissions certificate market—to send the

right price signals—or a CO2 tax to allocate costs to CO2 emissions. Rather than concentrating

funds on feed in tariffs, funds are geared toward improving energy efficiency, research and

development of renewables and running pilot programs. In this way, the EU “incentivizes” innovation and funding is far less than what is spent today on renewables.





Peter Jørgensen

Energinet.dk

ISKUSTVA DANSKOG OPERATORA PRIJENOSNOG SUSTAVA SA ŠIROKOM INTEGRACIJOM VJETROELEKTRANA

Sažetak

U 2014. godini, proizvodnja električne energije iz vjetroeletrana zadovoljavala je 39% domaće potražnje električne energije u Danskoj, a u 2020. godini će prijeći 50%. Ovaj rad opisuje razvoj danskog elektroenergetskog sustava i opisuje kako međunarodna rješenja temeljena na odvijanju na tržištu i fleksibilna proizvodnja omogućavaju Energinet.dk-u uravnotežavanje sustava. Rad će također uključiti i mogući scenarij danskog energetskog sustava potpuno neovisnog o fosilnim

gorivima do 2050. godine.

DANISH TSO EXPERIENCES WITH LARGE SCALE INTEGRATION OF WIND

POWER

Abstract

In 2014 the wind power generation in Denmark constituted 39% of the domestic electricity

demand, and in 2020 it will pass 50%. The presentation will describe the development of the

Danish electricity system and illustrate how market based international solutions and flexible

generators enable Energinet.dk to balance the system. The presentation will also include a possible

scenario for a fossil-fuel independent Danish energy system by 2050.





Stefan Ulreich

E.ON SE

SIGURNOST OPSKRBE: PANEUROPSKI PRISTUP – PRILIKE I ZAHTJEVI VEĆE SURADNJE KROZ EUROPSKO TRŽIŠTE ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE

Sažetak

U prosincu 2014. godine, Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V naručio je od tvrtke Prognos AG (Berlin/Basel) pripremu studije o potencijalnoj većoj suradnji europskih tržišta električne energije. Pažnja studije posvećena proučavanju do koje mjere bliska suradnja koja osigurava dostatnost proizvodnje energije, može dovesti do smanjenja cijena. Petnaest zemalja je analizirano: sedam članica Pentalateralnog energetskog foruma (PLEF: Austrija, Njemačka, Belgija, Francuska, Luksemburg, Nizozemska i Švicarska) i osam dodatnih graničnih zemalja (Poljska, Italija, Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo, Španjolska, Danska, Češka, Portugal i Irska).

Osiguravanje energetske dostatnosti danas se odvija na nacionalnoj razini, dok međunarodni utjecaji nisu uzeti u obzir. Međutim, ako su prekogranični utjecaji uzeti u obzir, na nacionalnoj razini dostatnost može biti olakšana, npr. vršna opterećenja u Europi se ne odvijaju istovremeno i ulazna energija iz obnovljivih izvora energije dolazi u različitim periodima. Dolazi do potencijalnih ušteda jer je potrebno osiguravanje manje kapaciteta iz konvencionalnih elektrana. Pokazatelj ušteda u studiji je tzv. preostalo opterećenje.

Studija je temeljena na analizama svih postojećih podataka koji su vezani uz satno opterećenje i ulaz energije iz obnovljivih izvora energije u periodu od 2009. do 2014. godine. Kao dodatak,

stvorena su dva scenarija (temeljena na Vision V1 i V3, ENTSO-E sustava Outlook and Adequacy

Forecast) i brojne osjetljivosti za 2030. godinu. Kako su rezultati jako ovisni o vremenskim

uvjetima, 48 simulacija energije vjetra (osjetljivost) dalo je široko područje rezultata. Zbog toga su korišteni rasponi za prezentaciju rezultata. Ovaj pristup čini studiju trenutno najopsežnijom analizom potencijala bliske suradnje s osvrtom na osiguravanje dostatnosti proizvodnje energije.

S pretpostavkom o nepostojanju zagušenja mreže, studija dolazi do sljedećih rezultata: • Smanjenje preostalog opterećenja: U suprotnosti sa shemom nacionalne procjene, pod

utjecajem ukupne sheme procjene, preostalo opterećenje će se smanjiti za 2 do 15 gigavata (najvjerojatnije između 8 i 10 gigavata u PLEF grupi zemalja) tijekom vremena vršnog opterećenja. U domeni cijele studije od 15 zemalja, preostalo opterećenje će se smanjiti za 15 do 50 gigavata (najvjerojatnije između 27 i 34 gigavata). • Vršna opterećenja pružaju najveći potencijal: Većina postojećeg potencijala dolazi iz vremenske razlike između vršnih opterećenja, što predstavlja potrebu za električnom energijom. U budućnosti, potencijal će se povećati velikim dijelom zbog širenja obnovljive energije, tj. opskrbe električne energije ovisne o vremenu. Doprinos prikazan opterećenjem (uravnotežena vršna opterećenja) će manje-više ostati stalan. • Pitanja geografskog opsega: Potencijal se značajno povećava kada se razmatra veća domena studije.

• Povećanje kapaciteta vjetra: Ovisno o scenariju, energija vjetra moći će pružiti pouzdan i dostupan kapacitet energije između najmanje 1,2 (V1) i 2,2 (V3) gigavata u PLEF regiji do 2030.

godine. Za cijelu domenu studije, to će biti ukupno između najmanje 9 (V1) i 13 (V3) gigavata. To

se podudara sa najmanje 1,3% instaliranog kapaciteta vjetra u PLEF-u, i više od 4% u cijeloj





domeni studije. Međutim, danas se samo oko 1% kapaciteta vjetra smatra pouzdano dostupnim kapacitetom.

• Geografski opseg povećava uravnoteženje sustava: U 2030. godini, sa daljnjim širenjem obnovljivih izvora energije (V1), situacije sa suvišnom količinom energije događat će se u PLEF zemljama samo jednom u šest godina. U suprotnosti, to bi se događalo svake godine na nacionalnoj razini. Preostalo opterećenje za grupu zemalja u domeni studije bilo bi negativno za jedva nekoliko sati po godini u 2030. godini, uzimajući u obzir i snažno širenje obnovljivih izvora energije. To znači da bi do 2030. godine, čak i visoka količina suvišne energije iz obnovljivih mogla biti „zaprimljena“, bez potrebe za posrednom pohranom, ukoliko bi mreže dopustile takav prijelaz energije.

• Bolja tržišna integracija smanjuje troškove, poboljšava dostatnost proizvodnje i odgađa potrebu za pohranom: Ako se potencijal za smanjenje preostalog opterećenja može ostvariti, tada postoji manja potreba za velikim kapacitetima elektrana. Spremnici za čuvanje viška energije bili bi potrebni tek u kasnijim periodima, ako su neophodni. Ova oba faktora mogu rezultirati sa

smanjenjem potrošnje. Potencijalne uštede treba usporediti sa širenjem mreže i troškovima prijenosa povezanim s ukupnom procjenom dostatne proizvodnje energije. Sveobuhvatna procjena

troškova i koristi treba uzeti u obzir bilo kakvo povećanje u učinkovitosti proizvodnje energije do koje dolazi zbog poboljšanja uporabe elektrana.

Sljedeći zahtjevi su potrebni kako bi se ostvario potencijal: • Prekogranične metode procjene dostatnosti proizvodnje energije trebaju biti podrobnije razvijene kao dodatak nacionalnim pristupima

• Međunarodno usklađivanje procesa procjene dostatne proizvodnje energije. To također utječe na pravne i organizacijske aspekte osiguravanja dostatne proizvodnje energije.

• Pouzdan prekogranični kapacitet za osiguravanje domaće sigurnosti opskrbe. Strane odgovorne za sigurnost opskrbe na nacionalnoj razini trebaju obvezno jamstvo pri osiguravanju

domaće potražnje sa prekograničnim kapacitetom. • Razvoj izvanmrežne strukture potrebne uz postojeću planiranu (npr. desetogodišnji plan razvoja prijenosne mreže), uzimajući u obzir skupne učinke. Pritom je potrebno uzeti u obzir prepreke, kao i troškove transformacije i transakcije. Iste je teško kvantificirati, ali imaju veliku ulogu u praksi.

Sljedeće preporuke su predložene u studiji: • Usklađivanje standarda i procesa: Zajedničke definicije sigurnosti opskrbe, koordiniran proces procjene dostatnosti proizvodnje energije i osigurana preogranična dostatnost proizvodnje energije mogu pridonijeti ostvarenju plana domaćeg tržišta, čak i ako je stvarne uštede i zahtijevane cijene teško odrediti. Prijedlog je da se ove faktore uzme u obzir u dizajnu tržišta električne energije.

• Pregled procjene kapaciteta energije vjetra bio bi preporučljiv, kako bi se povećao njegov potencijal u prekograničnim procjenama dostatnosti proizvodnje energije. • Regionalna suradnja (npr. u PLEF regiji) može postići brze „pobjede“, koje su potrebne za shvaćanje izvještenih pozitivnih potencijala usklađivanja. Ova suradnja može biti postupno proširena na veće regije.





SECURITY OF SUPPLY: A PAN-EUROPEAN APPROACH – THE OPPORTUNITIES

AND REQUIREMENTS OF GREATER COOPERATION ACROSS EUROPEAN

ELECTRICITY MARKETS

Abstract

In December 2014, Prognos AG (Berlin/Basel) was commissioned by the Weltenergierat –

Deutschland e.V to prepare a study on the potential of greater cooperation across European

electricity markets. The focus of the analysis was to address the extent to which closer cooperation

on ensuring generation adequacy can lead to cost reductions. Fifteen countries were analysed:

seven members of the Pentalateral Energy Forum (PLEF, DE, BE, NL, LU, FR, AT & CH) and

eight additional bordering countries (PL, IT, UK, ES, DK, CZ, PT & IE).

Today, ensuring generation adequacy takes place at a national level and international effects are not

taken into account. However, if cross-border effects are considered adequacy considerations at a

national level can be relieved, e.g.: load peaks in Europe do not occur simultaneously and the feed-

in from renewable energy takes place at different times. Potential savings arise, as less capacity

needs to be secured by conventional power plants. An indicator for this in the present study is the

so-called residual load.

The study is based on analyses of all existing data relating to hourly load and feed-in from

renewable energy for the period from 2009 to 2014. In addition, two scenarios (based on Visions

V1 and V3 of ENTSO-E’s System Outlook and Adequacy Forecast) and numerous sensitivities for

2030 were generated. As the variability of the results is highly dependent on weather conditions, 48

simulations of wind power (sensitivities) established a broad corridor of results. For this reason,

ranges are used in the presentation of results. The approach makes this study the most

comprehensive analysis to date of the potential of closer cooperation with respect to ensuring

generation adequacy.

With the assumption of no grid congestion, the study reaches the following results:

• Reduction of residual load: In contrast to a national assessment scheme, under a collective

assessment scheme the residual load will reduce by 2 to 15 gigawatts (most likely between 8 to 10

gigawatts in the PLEF group of countries) during peak hours. In the entire study domain of 15

countries the residual load will reduce by 15 to 50 gigawatts (most likely between 27 to 34

gigawatts).

• Load peaks offer largest potential: The majority of the potential existing today comes from

the time difference between load peaks, representing the demand for electricity. In future, the

potential will increase largely due to the expansion of renewable energy, i.e. the weather-

dependent supply of electricity. The contribution presented by load (balancing load peaks) will

more or less remain constant.

• Geographic scope matters: The potential increases significantly when considering a larger

study domain.

• Capacity credit for wind increases: Depending on the scenario, wind power will be able to

provide reliable available capacity of between at least 1.2 (V1) and 2.2 (V3) gigawatts in the PLEF

region by 2030. For the entire study domain, this will total between at least 9 (V1) to 13 (V3)

gigawatts. This corresponds to at least 1.3 % of the installed wind capacity in the PLEF, and more

than 4 % for the entire study domain. In contrast, only around 1 % of wind capacity is regarded as

reliable available capacity today.





• Geographic scope increases system balance: In 2030, with the further expansion of

renewables (V1), excess feed-in situations would occur in the PLEF in only one in six years. By

way of contrast, this would occur every year at the national level. The residual load of the group of

countries in the study domain would be negative for barely any hours per year in 2030, even

considering the strong expansion of renewables. This means that by 2030, even a high feed-in from

renewables could be “taken in” without the need for intermediate storage if the networks were to allow such electricity transmission.

• Better market integration reduces costs, improves generation adequacy and postpones the

need for storage: If the potential to reduce residual load could be realised, then less power plant

capacity would have to be reserved. Storage to take in excess energy would be necessary only at a

later date, if required. Both of these factors can result in cost reductions. Potential savings would

need to be compared with the network expansion and transaction costs associated with collective

generation adequacy assessment. Comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits should

however also take into consideration any gains in the efficiency of electricity generation arising

from improved usage of power plants.

The following requirements are necessary to achieve this potential:

• Cross-border methods of generation adequacy assessment need to be further developed in

addition to national approaches

• International harmonisation of generation adequacy assessment processes. This also

impacts the legal and organisational aspects of ensuring generation adequacy.

• Reliable cross border capacity to ensure domestic security of supply. Parties responsible for

security of supply at a national level need a binding guarantee when securing domestic demand

with cross-border capacity.

• Development of grid infrastructure needed alongside the existing planning (e.g. TYNDP),

while giving group effects even more consideration.

In doing so, obstacles as well as transformation and transaction costs need to be considered. These

can be difficult to quantify, but play an important role in practice.

We have arrived at the following recommendations based on the study:

• Harmonisation of standards and processes: Common definitions of security of supply, a

coordinated process of generation adequacy assessment and a guarantee of cross-border generation

adequacy can contribute to the realisation of a domestic market design, even if the actual costs

savings and required costs are difficult to determine. We recommend that these factors be taken

into account in electricity market design.

• Review of the evaluation of wind power capacity would be advisable, to increase its

potential of reliable available capacity in the cross-border generation adequacy assessment.

• Regional cooperation (e.g. in the PLEF region) can achieve quick wins which are needed to

realise the reported upside potentials of harmonisation. This cooperation can be incrementally

extended to larger regions.





Marko Senčar

Agencija za suradnju energetskih regulatora

EU ENERGETSKO TRŽIŠTE I REGULACIJE ULAZE U NOVI ZAKONSKI OKVIR: ENERGETSKA ZAJEDNICA

Sažetak

Energetska unija pruža novi zakonski okvir za tržište i regulaciju. Ovaj doprinos uzima u obzir svoje glavne elemente (dimenzije), naročito rad energetskog tržišta. Energetska unija dodaje neke nove žarišne točke svom razvoju, npr. istraživanje i inovacije, kao dodatak održivosti. Energetska unija također ima kao cilj poboljšanje klijentove pozicije na tržištu, te utire put učinkovitom poboljšanju u regulacijama i praćenju tržišta na europskoj razini. Tri aspekta potencijalnih budućih poboljšanja su razmotrena o tome kako postojeća Agencija za suradnju energetskih regulatora mogu dalje pridonijeti radu učinkovitog tržišta i implementaciji planirane investicije u

infrastrukturu.

Stavovi izraženi u ovom radu autorovi su osobni stavovi, koji ne odražavaju nužno stavove Agencije za

suradnju energetskih regulatora, niti se mogu pripisati tom poduzeću. Agencija za suradnju energetskih

regulatora ne jamči točnost podataka i informacija prikazanih u ovom članku i ne prihvaća nikakvu

odgovornost za posljedice njihove upotrebe.

EU ENERGY MARKET AND REGULATION ENTER A NEW FRAMEWORK: ENERGY

UNION

Abstract

Energy Union provides a new framework for market and regulation. This contribution discusses its

main elements (dimensions), in particular energy market functioning. Energy Union adds some

new focal points to its development, e.g. research and innovation, in addition to sustainability.

Energy Union also aims at improving customers’ position on the market, and paves the way for efficiency enhancements in regulation and market monitoring at European level. Three aspects of

potential future improvements are discussed how the existing Agency for the Cooperation of

Energy Regulators may further contribute to the efficient market functioning and implementation

of planned infrastructure investment.

The views expressed in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the

Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, or of any of its bodies. The Agency for the Cooperation of

Energy Regulators does not guarantee the accuracy of any data and information included in this article and

accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.





Philip Lewis

VaasaETT

PODRŽAVANJE OBVEZNOG, NE POTICANJE NEPRAKTIČNOG

Sažetak

Uključivanje kućanstava u zeleniju i energetski učinkovitiju budućnost je opcija koja će sve više biti pokretana inovacijama, tehnologijama i novim poslovnim modelima umjesto naporima ili

ograničenjima energetske industrije. Potrošači će prihvaćati sve ponude koje su privlačne i iz kojih

će dobivati najviše za uloženo. No, energetska industrija mora podržavati tehnologije i modele u njihovim razvojnim fazama, bez prekomjernog podržavanja bezuspješnih projekata. Potrebne su podupirući zakoni i kvalitetne edukacije potrošača te njihova informiranost. Također je potrebno omogućiti i pomoći potrošačima u njihovom putovanju. Sve navedeno zahtijeva investicije, ali dugoročno će potrošači, društvo i okoliš imati veliku korist.

SUPPORTING THE INEVITABLE, NOT PUSHING THE IMPRACTICAL

Abstract

Engaging household customers in a greener and more energy efficient future is one which will be

driven more by innovation in technologies and new business models than by the efforts or

restrictions of the energy industry. Where there is a compelling benefit from an offering, it will be

adopted by consumers. But the energy industry needs to support the technology and models in their

early stages, without excessively supporting fruitless developments. We need facilitating

regulations and outstanding customer education and awareness, and we need to enable and assist

customers in their journey. All of this will require investment but in the long term the customer,

society and the environment will benefit.





Maja Božičević Vrhovčak, Ivana Rogulj

Društvo za oblikovanje održivog razvoja

EMISIJE CO2 U HRVATSKOJ 2050. GODINE: KOJI JE PUT U NISKOUGLJIČNU BUDUĆNOST?

Sažetak

Članak se bavi emisijama ugljičnog dioksida iz sektora energetike u Republici Hrvatskoj do 2050. godine. Na temelju projekcija potrošnje i proizvodnje energije te pridruženih emisija CO2 za sve

sektore, izrađena je interaktivna platforma koja na jednostavan način omogućava upoznavanje s

posljedicama koje pojedine odluke imaju na ukupne emisije stakleničkih plinova. Razvijeni alat omogućava jednostavnu usporedbu različitih razvojnih opcija s aspekta emisije CO2 te predstavlja

važan alat za razumijevanje kompleksnosti tranzicije u niskougljično društvo. Podloge i platforma razvijeni su u okviru IPA projekta South East Europe Sustainable Energy Policy koji se provodi od

2011. do 2016. godine.

CO2 EMISSIONS IN CROATIA IN 2050: WHAT IS THE PATHWAY TO A LOW-

CARBON FUTURE?

Abstract

The article deals with carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector in the Republic of Croatia

by 2050. Based on the projections of energy supply and demand of all consumption sectors and

corresponding CO2 emissions, an interactive platform was developed that clearly connects

consequences of certain decisions and choices and the total greenhouse gas emissions. The

developed tool allows for simple comparisons of different development options in terms of CO2

emissions and is an important tool for understanding the complexity of the transition to a low

carbon society. Input data were collected and the platform was developed under the IPA project

South East Europe Sustainable Energy Policy, which is being implemented from 2011 to 2016.





Goran Majstrović, Matislav Majstrović, Elis Sutlović


OČEKIVANI BUDUĆI UVJETI OČUVANJA SIGURNOG POGONA SUSTAVA S VELIKOM RAZINOM INTEGRACIJE OIE

Sažetak

Energetska strategija EU snažno je usmjerena prema velikoj integraciji obnovljivih izvora energije.

Najdominantniji dio ovdje je preuzet od različitih izvora - vjetroelektrana. Mrežna integracija povremenih izvora uz održavanje sustava stabilnim i sigurnim jedan je od najvećih izazova za operatore. Ovaj dio je često zanemaren od strane energetske politike, tako da se ovaj rad bavi

očekivanim budućim uvjetima sigurnog elektroenergetskog sustava sa velikom integracijom vjetroelektrana. Dan je pregled očekivanog razvoja integracije vjetroelektrana u EU, kao i očekivanim potrebama P/f regulacije i potrebe za kontrolom. Rad se zaključuje s nekoliko preporuka.

EXPECTED FUTURE CONDITIONS FOR SECURE POWER SYSTEM OPERATION

WITH LARGE SCALE OF RES INTEGRATION

Abstract

EU energy strategy is strongly focused on the large scale integration of renewable energy sources.

The most dominant part here is taken by variable sources - wind power plants. Grid integration of

intermittent sources along with keeping the system stable and secure is one of the biggest

challenges for the TSOs. This part is often neglected by the energy policy makers, so this paper

deals with expected future conditions for secure power system operation with large scale wind

integration. It gives an overview of expected wind integration development in EU, as well as

expected P/f regulation and control needs. The paper is concluded with several recommendations.





Bernard Franković, Paolo Blecich, Andreja Hustić

Tehnički fakultet Sveučilišta u Rijeci; Hrvatski operator prijenosnog sustava d.o.o.

UTJECAJ UVOĐENJA OBNOVLJIVIH IZVORA ENERGIJE NA ODRŽIVI RAZVOJ ENERGETSKIH SUSTAVA REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE S OSVRTOM NA EMISIJE

STAKLENIČKIH PLINOVA

Sažetak

Između političkih ciljeva i stvarnih mogućnosti u Republici Hrvatskoj trenutno postoji veliki raskorak, ponajviše zbog aktualne gospodarske situacije. Stoga je opisanoj problematici zamjene

konvencionalnih izvora energije obnovljim izvorima potrebno pristupiti krajnje oprezno,

promatrajući energetske ali vrednujući ponajprije ekološke i ekonomske pokazatelje. Potrebno je obuhvatiti sve specifičnosti elektroenergetskog sustava Republike Hrvatske i analizirati dosadašnji utjecaj implementacije obnovljivih izvora energije na razvoj elektoenergetskog sektora i ekonomski

rast Republike Hrvatske. Potrebno je ispitati da li je i u kojoj mjeri implementacija obnovljivih

izvora energije imala ekološki efekt (smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova), procijeniti vanjske troškove koji bi mogli nastati zbog daljnjih promjena strukture sustava uslijed povećanja udjela intermitentnih izvora energije, te procijeniti optimalnu dinamiku za daljnu provedbu poticajnih

mjera za OIE projekte u Republici Hrvatskoj s obzirom na njene trenutne energetske potencijale.

Iznimno je bitno ispitati spremnost i kapacitete sustava zemalja regije (BiH, Crna Gora, Mađarska i Srbija) da kompenziraju varijacije nastale uslijed primjene intermitentnih izvora energije. Kako se

ovakav način kompenzacije može provesti stvaranjem zajedničkoj energetskog tržišta koje je u planu EU, potrebno je ispitati i sagledati mogućnosti i opasnosti na koje Republika Hrvatska može

naići. Osobito je zanimljivo potencijalno smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova uvođenjem obnovljivih izvora energije čime bi Hrvatska mogla postati konkurentnija pri trgovanju emisijama stakleničkih plinova. Naposljetku potrebno je u radu sagledati koliki je udio i koje su mogućnosti malih proizvođača obnovljive energije (do 35 kW instalirane snage), a koji napajaju mrežu distribucije

Ovakva detaljna analiza trebala bi u konačnici dati zaključak o tome koliko aktualne mjere doprinose održivom razvoju energetskog sektora u Republici Hrvatskoj, te dati uvid u daljnje mjere

kojima bi se osiguralo isto.





INFLUENCE OF IMPLEMENTATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ON

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGETIC SYSTEM OF THE REPUBLIC OF

CROATIA WITH A FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASES

Abstract

Between political objectives and real possibilities in the moment, there is a large gap, mainly

because of the current economic situation. Therefore, the described problems of replacing

conventional energy sources renewable sources must be approached with extreme caution,

watching valuing energy but primarily environmental and economic indicators. It is necessary to

address all the specifics of the Croatian electricity system and to analyse the impact of the

implementation of renewable energy on the development of the power sector and the economic

growth of the Croatian. It is necessary to examine whether and to what extent the implementation

of renewable energy sources have environmental effects (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions),

to estimate the external costs that may arise due to further changes in the structure of the system

due to the increasing share of intermittent energy sources, and to estimate the optimal schedule for

further implementation of incentive measures for renewable energy projects in the Republic of

Croatia in terms of its current energy resources. It is extremely important to examine the readiness

and capacity of the system of countries in the region (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro,

Hungary and Serbia) to compensate for variations resulting from the application of intermittent

energy sources. How does this kind of compensation can be carried out by creating a common

energy market that is in regard to the EU, it is necessary to examine and assess the possibilities and

dangers that the Republic of Croatia may encounter. Particularly interesting is the potential

reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by introducing renewable energy which Croatia could

become more competitive in trading greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, it is necessary to work to

look at what proportion and what are the possibilities of small producers of renewable energy (up

to 35 kW of installed capacity), and that power distribution network

Such a detailed analysis should ultimately give a conclusion on how current measures contribute to

sustainable development of the energy sector in the Republic of Croatia, and provide insight into

further measures to ensure the same.





Bruno Židov, Jurica Brajković, Marko Karan


POTENCIJAL SMANJENJA EMISIJA OBNOVOM VOZNOG PARKA U HRVATSKOJ

Sažetak

Europska unija identificirala je karakteristična područja primjene mjera za suzbijanje emisija onečišćujućih tvari u zrak. Cestovni promet prepoznat je kao najveći onečišćivač okoliša te je

porast emisije CO2 upravo najteže suzbiti u toj vrsti prometa. Promatrajući projicirani trend smanjenja emisije u Republici Hrvatskoj, jasno je vidljivo da će za postizanje minimalnih ciljeva do 2050. godine, koje predlaže Europska unija, biti potrebna implementacija vrlo jakih mjera u

nadolazećem razdoblju. Predmetni cilj referata odnosi se na analizu potencijalnog smanjenja emisije onečišćujućih tvari koje generiraju osobna vozila registrirana u Hrvatskoj, pod pretpostavkom provođenja mjere koja će rezultirati tehnološkom obnovom voznog parka na nacionalnoj razini. Sumarno gledajući, osobna vozila prije Euro 1 standarda, Euro 1 i Euro 2 standarda zajedno emitiraju gotovo 40 posto svih ostvarenih CO2 emisija osobnih vozila registriranih u Hrvatskoj. Uz

pretpostavku zamjene svih osobnih vozila do uključujući Euro 2, sa Euro 6 vozilima, te uvažavajući određene pretpostavke, kvantificirana su potencijalna smanjenja emisije NOx, CO, CH4

i čestica. Potencijal smanjenja emisije NOx iznosi oko 3.061 tonu, CO oko 14.482 tone, CH4 iznosi

oko 114 tona te čestica PM10 i PM2,5 oko 257 tona. Ovisno o snazi motora, zamjenom tipičnog benzinskog vozila starog 20 godina sa novim, bez promjene režima vožnje, mogu se ostvariti godišnje uštede do 209 litara benzinskog goriva,

odnosno smanjiti emisija CO2 do 475 kg godišnje (sukladno pretpostavkama opisanim u referatu). Sa zamjenom dizelskih vozila pod istim pretpostavkama mogu ostvariti uštede do 311 litara dizelskog goriva godišnje, odnosno smanjiti emisiju CO2 do 815 kg godišnje.





EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL WITH THE RENEWAL OF THE VEHICLE

FLEET IN CROATIA

Abstract

The European Union has identified the typical areas of application of measures to tackle the

problem of pollutants emissions into the air. Road transport is recognized as the largest polluter of

the environment and an increase in CO2 emissions is most difficult to suppress in this type of

transport. Looking at the projected trend of emission reductions in Croatia, it is clear that for

achieving the minimum targets by 2050, as proposed by the European Union, implementation of

the very strong measures in the coming period will be inevitable.

The main aim of the paper refers to the analysis of potential emission reduction of pollutants

generated by passenger vehicles registered in Croatia, assuming the implementation of measures

that will result in technological renewal of the fleet at the national level.

Generally considering, passenger cars before the Euro 1 standard, Euro 1 and Euro 2 standards

together emit nearly 40 percent of all CO2 emissions generated by passenger cars registered in

Croatia. Assuming replacement of all cars up to and including Euro 2, with Euro 6 vehicles, and

taking into account certain assumptions, the potential reductions in emissions of NOx, CO, CH4 and

particles were quantified. The potential reduction in NOx emissions is approximately 3,061 tons, in

CO emissions approximately 14,482 tons, in CH4 approximately 114 tons and in particulate matter

approximately 257 tons.

Depending on the engine size, with the replacement of the typical gasoline 20 years old passenger

vehicle with the new one, without changing the driving mode, annual savings of up to 209 liters of

gasoline fuel and reduction of CO2 emissions by 475 kg could be achieved (according to the

assumptions described in the paper). With the replacement of diesel vehicles under the same

conditions, the savings of up to 311 liters of diesel fuel annually and reduction of CO2 emissions by

815 kg could be achieved.





Igor Grozdanić, Maja Pokrovac

Sunce i partneri d.o.o.; Ministarstvo poduzetništva i obrta

NOVI POSLOVNI MODELI OPSKRBE ZELENOM ENERGIJOM NA TRŽIŠTU ENERGIJE S UČINCIMA NA SMANJENJE CO2

Sažetak

U ovom radu prikazat će se novi poslovni modeli za obnovljive izvore energije koji su pronašli svoj put do tržišne konkurentnosti i koji svakim danom postaju sve zastupljeniji na energetskim tržištima zemalja EU. Ova tranzicija osim prelaska na ekološku i dugoročno održiviju proizvodnju energije sa sobom je donijela još jednu promjenu koja je puno značajnija za društvo. Stvaraju se novi poslovni modeli ulaganja u obnovljive izvore energije koji energetiku približavaju građanima. Poduzetnici, energetske zadruge, i ostalo stanovništvo okupljeno u različite oblike udruživanja u svome vlasništvu u Njemačkoj drže preko 50% obnovljivih izvora energije.Takvi modeli investiranja u obnovljive izvore energije su bitni za društvo u cjelini zbog razvoja održivijeg i pravednijeg društva gdje se građani uključuju i u proizvodnju električne energije, a kroz ovakve

modele smanjuje se i cijena električne energije za krajnje korisnike. Osim direktnog zajedničkog ulaganja sredstava građana ovakvi projekti financijski su podržani i kroz financijske instrumente EU, ali i kroz posebne oblike banaka, kao što su primjerice okolišne ili etične banke. Ovi poslovni modeli su dugoročno prihvatljivi na tržištu i zbog sve većeg učešća obnovljivih izvora energije što u konačnici ima i smanjenje emisija CO2. U radu će biti prikazani europski modeli, i mogući modeli koji bi se primjenili u Republici Hrvatskoj.

NEW BUSINESS MODELS OF GREEN ENERGY SUPPLY ON THE ENERGY MARKET

WITH THE EFFECTS OF REDUCTION OF CO2

Abstract

In this paper, new business models for renewables, which found their way to market

competitiveness and which become more present on energy markets in EU, will be shown.

This transition, beside transition to ecological and, in the long-term, more sustainable production of

energy, brought another change which has far more importance for society. New business models

for investments in renewables which bring energy industry closer to citizens are being developed.

Entrepreneurs, energy cooperatives and public grouped in various forms of associations in

Germany own over 50% of renewables. Such investment models are important for society because

of the development of more sustainable and just society in which citizens are included in

production of electricity. Also, through these models, price of electricity is lower for end-users.

Besides direct collective fund investments from citizens, these types of projects are financially

supported through financial instruments of the EU, but also through special bank types, such as

environmental and ethical banks.

These business models are long-term acceptable because of increasing involvement of renewables

which results in reduction of CO2. In this paper, European models and possible models which could

be used in Croatia are shown.





Mišo Mudrić

Pravni fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu

PRAVNI OKVIR ISTRAŽIVANJA I EKSPLOATACIJE UGLJIKOVODIKA U

HRVATSKOM DIJELU JADRANA

Sažetak

Kao uvod propisu o aktivnostima morskog istraživanja i eksploatacije u hrvatskom dijelu Jadrana, novi Zakon o rudarstvu i Zakon o istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika pružaju općeniti zakonski okvir za istraživanje i eksploataciju prirodnih izvora. Zakon o istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika također uspostavlja nezavisno regulatorno tijelo, Agenciju za ugljikovodike. Važno je napomenuti Uredbu o naknadi za istraživanje i eksploataciju ugljikovodika i Pravilnik o bitnim

tehničkim zahtjevima, sigurnosti i zaštiti pri istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika iz podmorja Republike Hrvatske, koji su od velike važnosti za trenutne aktivnosti s obzirom na predloženi projekt istraživanja i eksploatacije hrvatskih voda u potrazi za ležištima nafte i plina.

Agencija za ugljikovodike objavila je Stratešku studiju o vjerojatno značajnom utjecaju na okoliš Okvirnog plana i programa istraživanja i eksploatacije ugljikovodika na Jadranu, dokument koji je primio mnogo kritika od strane stručnjaka i javnosti. U isto vrijeme, stručnjaci teže podržavanju općenite ideje istraživanja i eksploatacije morskog dna, no s velikim otporom od strane javnosti, s čije je strane pokrenuto nekoliko inicijativa koje predstavljaju mogućnost javnih referenduma koje

se protive istraživanju i eksploataciji morskog dna.

Vlada trenutno priprema Zakon o sigurnosti pri odobalnom istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika, temeljen na Direktivi 94/22/EC Europskog parlamenta i Vijeća iz 30. svibnja 1994.

godine, o uvjetima za dopuštanje i korištenje ovlaštenja za ispitivanje, istraživanje i eksploataciju ugljikovodika, Komisije za provedbu uredbi (EU), broj 1112/2014 od 30. listopada 2014. godine,

koja određuje uobičajen format za dijeljenje informacija o opasnim indikatorima za operatore i

vlasnike odobalnih plinskih i naftnih instalacija i uobičajeni format za objavljivanje informacija o opasnim pokazateljima za zemlje članice, i Direktive 2013/30/EU Europskog parlamenta i Vijeća od 12. srpnja 2013. godine o sigurnosti odobalnih plinskih i naftnih operacija, koja dopunjuje

Direktivu 2004/35/EC. Okvirni plan i program istraživanja i eksploatacije ugljikovodika na Jadranu predviđa 29 istraživačkih područja te je 10 tvrtki nedavno dobilo dozvolu za početak istraživanja 10 područja. U skladu sa Zakonom o istraživanju i eksploataciji ugljikovodika, trajanje

eksploatacijskog ciklusa postavljeno je na 25 godina, sa mogućnošću daljnjeg produživanja. Nadalje, dvije hrvatske luke, koje su otvorene za međunarodni promet (luka Ploče i luka Rijeka), ciljane su kao potencijalni logistički centri za planirane odobalne aktivnosti.





REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ON EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION OF

CROATIAN PART OF ADRIATIC

Abstract

As the prelude to the regulation of marine exploration and exploitation activities in the Croatian

Adriatic waters, the new Mining Act and Act on exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons have

provided a general legal framework for the natural resources exploration and exploitation. The

latter Act also appropriated the establishment of the independent regulatory body, the Hydrocarbon

Agency. It is important to mention the Decree on Fees for exploration and production of

hydrocarbons, and the Decree on main technical requirements on safety and security of offshore

exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Republic of Croatia, that are of special relevance

for the current activities with regard the proposed project of exploration and exploitation of the

Croatian waters in search for gas and oil sea-bed deposits.

The Hydrocarbon Agency has published the Strategic Study of the Likely Significant

Environmental Impact of the Framework Plan and Program of Exploration and Production of

Hydrocarbons in the Adriatic, a document receiving a lot of criticism from the legal experts and

general public. At the same time, the experts tend to support the general idea of sea-bed exploration

and exploitation, with the major antagonism still being present in the general public, with several

initiatives introducing the possibility of a public referenda to oppose the sea-bed exploration and

exploitation.

The Government is currently preparing the Act on the Safety of Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration

and Production Operations, based on the Directive 94/22/EC of the European Parliament and of the

Council of 30th May 1994 on the conditions for granting and using authorizations for the

prospection, exploration and production of hydrocarbons, the Commission Implementing

Regulation (EU) No 1112/2014 of 13th October 2014 determining a common format for sharing of

information on major hazard indicators by the operators and owners of offshore oil and gas

installations and a common format for the publication of the information on major hazard

indicators by the Member States, and the Directive 2013/30/EU of the European Parliament and of

the Council of 12th June 2013 on safety of offshore oil and gas operations and amending Directive

2004/35/EC. The General Framework (Plan and Program) of Exploration and Exploitation of

Hydrocarbons in the Adriatic envisages 29 exploration fields, and 10 companies have recently been

granted a license to initiate the exploration of 10 exploration fields. In accordance with the Act on

exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons, the duration of exploitation cycle is set to 25 years,

with the possibility of further extension. In addition, two Croatian maritime ports open for

international trade (the Port of Ploče and the Port of Rijeka) have been centered out as the potential logistics ports for the planned offshore activities.





Vladimir Potočnik

HED, Zagreb

ZAŠTITA KLIME I ZAPOŠLJAVANJE U HRVATSKOJ

Sažetak

Među najtežim problemima Hrvatske su visoka nezaposlenost i zaštita klime s ublažavanjem posljedica klimatskih promjena. Ta dva problema usko su povezana, a glavna poveznica je

energetika kao najveći uzročnik klimatskih promjena zbog emisija stakleničkih plinova od izgaranja fosilnih goriva. Najvažnije mjere zaštite klime u energetici su povećanje energetske

Efikasnosti (ENEF) i davanje prednosti projektima obnovljivih izvora energije (OIE) pred

projektima izgaranja fosilnih goriva.

Osim što projekti ENEF i OIE doprinose zaštiti klime i ublažavanju posljedica klimatskih promjena, oni imaju i niz drugih prednosti pred projektima izgaranja fosilnih goriva. To je

ponajprije veća specifična domaća zaposlivost investicija ENEF i OIE u odnosu na fosilna goriva.

Usto se time smanjuje uvoz fosilnih goriva, što popravlja vanjskotrgovinsku bilancu i smanjuje inozemni dug Hrvatske, te povećava energetsku sigurnost.

Široj primjeni ENEF i OIE suprotstavljene su brojne prepreke, kao npr. otpor dobavljača energije, kojima širenje ENEF i OIE smanjuje prodaju energije i prihode. Postoji više metoda svladavanja takvih prepreka.

Države, koje su ENEF i OIE stavile u fokus energetske politike, lakše i brže izlaze iz krize uz najmanje stope nezaposlenosti.

Bez obzira na rezultate COP21 u Parizu u prosincu 2015. godine, Hrvatskoj bi se isplatila

orijentacija na ubrzani razvoj i primjenu ENEF i OIE.





CLIMATE PROTECTION AND EMPLOYMENT IN CROATIA

Abstract

One of the largest problem in Croatia are high rate of unemployment and climate protection with

mitigation of consequences from climate changes. These two problems are closely related and the

main connection is energy industry, as the largest cause of climate change because of greenhouse

gases emissions from fossil fuels combustion. The most important measures of climate protection

in energy industry are increase in energy efficiency (ENEF) and giving priority to renewable

energy sources (RES) projects over fossil fuels combustion projects.

Other than contributing to climate protection and mitigating the consequences from climate

changes, ENEF and RES have other advantages over fossil fuel combustion projects. That is

notably larger specific domestic employability of investment in ENEF and RES, regarding fossil

fuels. Moreover, the import of fossil fuels is reduced, which fixes foreign trade balance sheet and

reduces Croatia’s foreign debt and increases energy security. Wider application of ENEF and RES is dealing with a lot of obstacles, e.g. resistance from

suppliers, which have smaller revenues and sell less energy because of expansion of ENEF and

RES. There are multiple methods of dealing with such obstacles.

Countries that put ENEF and RES in their energy policy focus, are dealing easier with crisis, with

minimum unemployment rates.

Regardless of results of COP21 in Paris in December 2015, Croatia would benefit from orientation

to rapid development and implementation of ENEF and RES.

GENERALNI SPONZORI:

POKROVITELJI:

DAROVATELJI:

MEDIJSKI POKROVITELJ:

Generatori i motori d.d.

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