22 march 2002copyright 2002, wendy l. schultz, infinite futures futures studies: an overview of...
TRANSCRIPT
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies:An Overview ofBasic Concepts
Dr. Wendy L. SchultzInfinite Futures
2001-2002 Fulbright Lecturer,Finland Futures Research Centre
[email protected] http://www.infinitefutures.com
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
What do we...
See: the past, the present, trends. Wonder: what might happen? Fear: past disasters --> future crises. Desire: past successes --> future goals. Believe: who/what makes change? DO: who/what could help us create
change?
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Feelings and experiences:sources of ideas about the future
History(experiences)
Feelingsabout the future
Image of the Possible Future
outcomes were unexpected >>>
uncertain, curious, or challenged, producing…>
WILDLY DIFFERENT:TRANSFORMATIONAL
outcomes were disasters or failures >>>
scared (fear), worry, anxiety, producing…>
NEGATIVE:NIGHTMARE
outcomes were wonderful! successes! >>>
hope, excitement, anticipation, producing…>
POSITIVE: EVERYTHING GETS BETTER
outcomes followed an expected pattern >>>
security, stability, producing…>
CONTINUITY: STAYS THE SAME
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Guidelines for thinkingabout the future... Make NO PREDICTIONS; Remember, there are NO FUTURE
FACTS; TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING LIKE
TODAY; Question assumptions when you hear,
“[..X..]” could *never* happen…”
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is…
a transdisciplinary, systems-science-based
approach to..
analyzing patterns of change in the past;
identifying trends of change in the present; and
extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future,
in order to help people create the futures they
most desire.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Inter, trans, meta disciplinary:
…etc.
futures studies
sociology
historyphilosophy,political science
economics
systemsscienceliterature
psychology
internationalrelations
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Alternative possible futures...
Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and thus impossible to predict;
Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of current trends and emerging issues of change.
trendsinnovationsrevolutions, etc.
possibility onepossibility two
possibility three…etc.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
…alternative possible futures
A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures;
of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth;
of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Alternative futures:possible, probable, and preferable
possible futures
probable futures
preferablefutures
objective of futures studies:act to enhance the probability of our preferable futures.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is…..
NOT prediction, but
EXPLORATION
and
PROVOCATION.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Evaluating forecasts:
Any useful statementabout the future
should seem to be ridiculous.
-- Dator’s Axiom
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Five key componentsof applied futures research
ID & Monitor Change
CritiqueImplications
ImagineDifference
EnvisionPreferred
Plan andImplement
Identify patterns of change: trends in chosen variables, changes in cycles, and emerging issues of change.
Examine primary, secondary, tertiary impacts; inequities in impacts; differential access, etc.
Identify, analyze, and build alternative images of the future, or ’scenarios.’
Identify, analyze, and articulate images of preferred futures, or ’visions.’
Identify stakeholders, resources; clarify goals; design strategies; organize action; create change.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
The contextof applied futures research
environmental
social economic
technological
macro reality
political
organizational culture
criticalissue
other systems
profession, market, or field
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Identifying change...
• Current conditions;
• Cycles;• Trends;• Emerging
issues of change; and
• Wild cards.
• Locate its source;• Evaluate its
likelihood;• Monitor its
growth; and• Track its spread.
Kinds of change….
…lookeverywher
e!
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Environmental Scanning
Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emergence, growth, and coalescence of change.
Related to issues management and competitive intelligence.
”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to the logically structured, iterative monitoring of selected information sources.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Trends, emerging issues…and wild cards.
WILDCARD!!
TIME
numberof cases;degreeofpublicawareness
local;few cases;emergingissues
global; multiple dispersed cases;trends and megatrends
scientists;artists; radicals; lunatics
specialists’journals and websites
layperson’s magazines,websites, documentaries
newspapers,news magazines
governmentinstitutions
Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change.
adapted from J. Coates,Issues Management
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
…looking for impacts
How might our homes & families change? How might our work change? How might our hobbies & leisure differ? How might we travel & communicate? How might childhood & education differ? How might our environment change? How might government & economy differ?
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Emerging issues of change…
24/7/365: no home-office divide – but flexibility!; By 2010, we talk to our computers, they talk back,
and recognize us via biometrics; By 2015, hyper-reality widespread; By 2020, micromachines create “smart” materials; By 2020, people are “globens” – world citizens; By 2020, routine, computer language translation;
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
…emerging issues of change,
cont’d. By 2025, a manned mission to Mars; By 2030, anti-aging advances let us live from
35-95 as “the same age;” 3-D scanning, faxing, and “printing:” the
home fabrication unit. Continued global warming, with sea-level
rise; Loss of biodiversity, especially of marine life.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Wheels:Workshop Instructions
Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your worksheet.
Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible impacts of this change over the next fifteen years.
Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to the appropriate “spoke”.
Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting each to its primary impact.
change
work?
hobbies?
education?home/families?
travel?
communications?
economy?
environment?
Futures Wheel
primary effects
secondary effects
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Existing images ofalternative futures: sources Individuals… what do people think?
e.g., Surveys, Ethnographic Futures Research, etc. Culture... what do religions imply? political
ideologies? what do artists imagine? writers? advertisers? other artifacts? Content analysis; hermeneutic analysis, etc.
Forecasts… what trends have researchers extrapolated? what scenarios have futurists built? Secondary analysis of existing research and data.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Scenarios: imagining difference through structured processes. Images of alternative possible futures; Based on trends and emerging issues; Exploratory, NOT predictive; Present both opportunities and threats; Real, NOT ideal; Used to create contingency plans.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Effective scenarios….provoke ideas!
• Vividly, boldly portray difference;• Clearly identify the time horizon;• Explain how the change unfolded –
tell the story of trends and impacts growing over time;
• Are written in the present tense, as if the future were happening now;
• Contain a few transformed elements of the ”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the scenario’s present day.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Scenarios vs. visions
Scenarios are futures for the HEAD: they allow us to explore our assumptions about possibilities.
Visions are futures for the HEART: they allow us to voice our most deeply felt values and goals.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Images of the future:a continuum of infinite
possibilities
all possible images of the future
dystopiasnightmares
utopiasvisionsscenarios:
downside
scenarios:PTE
scenarios: upside
wild cards!
wild cards!
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Effective visions….inspire action!
• Vividly, boldly portray hopes, ideals, and values;
• Clearly identify the time horizon;• Describe a ”future history” of actions and
projects that created the improved ”present;”• Are written in the present tense, as if the
preferred future were real now;• Contain a few transformed elements of the
”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the vision’s improved present day.
22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, Organizational Capacity for Vision Creation
tellingselling
testing
consulting
CO-CREATINGrequired capacity for direction-setting and learning
degree of active staff involvement
LOW
HIGH
HIGH