22 February

From Theory to Evidence

Hypothesis vs. Research QuestionWhen no expected direction to relationship.Exploratory research, not deductive

Elements in HypothesesVariables

characteristics of the units we are studyingTheoretical populationUnits of Analysis

What the variables are characteristics of: individuals or a larger unit [e.g. states, countries]

Direction of relationship

ConceptsDemocracy, power, representation,

justice, equality, trust, social capitalMany interesting concepts are abstract

and lack a completely precise meaningOne strategy is to defining concepts by

being explicitExpress a concept in a form that is

observable and includes some notion or degree of differentiation

This process is called operationalization

What is a variable?Interesting questions in social science

center on concepts that involve variation and how changes in one phenomenon help to explain variation in another

Process of Operationalizing ConceptsDemocracy could be defined as having

certain attributesIe. Number of parties

Political Engagement as another exampleForms of political participation

MeasurementAre these measures any good?ReliabilityValidity

Types of VariablesDependent

Phenomenon trying to explainIndependent

The variable you are using to explain variation in the phenomenon

Dependent independentThe value of the dependent variable

depends on the value of the independent variable

Units of AnalysisAlong with proposing a relationship, a

hypothesis also specifies the types or levels of political actor to which the hypothesis is thought to applyIndividuals, groups, cities, countries

Problems with mixing different levels of analysis

Ecological fallacyUsing information that shows a relationship

for groups to infer that there is the same relationship for individuals

Direction/Nature of RelationshipPositive – as one variable increases the

other also increasesNegative – as one variable increases the

other decreasesAs age increases, probability of voting

increases (+)As political cynicism increases, probability of

voting decreases. (-)

Pro

b o

f V

oti

ng

Pro

b o

f V

oti

ng

Age

Cynicism

Problems in Formulating HypothesesVague or trivial predictionVague relationshipValue statementDeals with a case and is not generalizable

[theoretical population should not be one]

Problem Hypotheses?"Ronald Reagan was a stronger president than

Jimmy Carter." "The number of convicts on death row is greater in

Texas than in Utah." "Republican electoral success is related to how the

economy is doing." "Americans are generally satisfied with their

congressional representative." "People who are dissatisfied with the government

tend to exhibit political cynicism." "More legislation was passed by Congress in 1934

than in 1954." "Corruption among world leaders is related to

average annual rainfall in their country's capital." "Political participation is high among residents of

affluent suburbs."

Variables, units of analysis and direction of relationship:"The greater the inequality in the ownership of land in

countries, the greater the civil strife." "Women are more likely to oppose capital punishment than

men." "Local television news stories are more likely to be about

crime than network news stories." "The proportion of the vote a party receives determines the

proportion of seats it receives in the legislature." "Daughters tend to acquire their interest in politics from their

mothers." "The greater the number of highway patrol officers per capita

in a state, the fewer the number of highway fatalities." “Interest groups that spend the most on professional lobbyists

receive the greatest financial rewards from government programs."

"The size of a government agency influences the decision-making authority of its director."

"Lawyers who attended highly rated law schools are less likely to run for elective office than those who attended less prestigious law schools."

Types of RelationshipsNull hypothesisCorrelation/associationCausalSpurious

Spurious Relationshipa relationship in which two variables that

are not causally linked appear to be so because a third variables in influencing both of them

Spurious Relationship

Fire damage in $# of fire trucks responding to call

+

Intensity of fire

+ +

Spurious Relationship

%women electedParty quotas +

Political culture

+ +

Correlation/association vs. causationCo-variationTimeConsistent with other evidenceRule out rival explanations