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21st CENTURYSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGYWINTER 2011-2012 www.21stcenturysciencetech.com $5.00

ScienceCan Predict

Earthquakes

• Lynn Margulis: Pioneering Biologist

• South Africa in Space

• Evidence-Based Medicine Kills

News INMEMORIAM26 LYNNMARGULIS(1938-2011) PioneeringAmericanBiologist andGeoscientist MarkA.S.McMenamin

BIOLOGY&MEDICINE30 Evidence-BasedMedicine: TreatingbyChance CathyM.Helgason,M.D.

NUCLEARREPORT33 INTERVIEW:DR.AKIRATOKUHIRO Fukushima,Science,and Radiation

ASTRONOMYREPORT38 HowtoConstructanAstrolabe, UsingYourPC ChristineCraig

GEOLOGY55EVIDENCEFORATRIASSICKRAKEN UnusualArrangementofBones atIchthyosaurStateParkin Nevada MarkA.S.McMenamin

SPACEREPORT:SOUTHAFRICA59 InternationalAstronautical Congress,CapeTown: LookingtotheHeavensto DevelopAfrica MarshaFreeman64 INTERVIEW:NALEDIPANDOR SouthAfricainSpace:Ending ‘Afro-Pessimism’67 INTERVIEW:DR.SANDILEMALINGA SpaceinSouthAfrica: AChangeinParadigm71 INTERVIEW:DR.PETERMARTINEZ WeSeeanAfrican‘ Astronaissance’73 INTERVIEW:DR.LEE-ANNE MCKINNELL WhatIstheWeatherinSpace?

21st CENTURYSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Vol.24,No.4 Winter2011-2012

Features

OUTOFTHESHADOWS 4 TheEmergingScienceofEarthquakePrediction OyangTeng

Non-seismicsignalshavebeenobservedanywherefromweeksto daysandhoursleadinguptoanearthquake,indicatingthatthereare muchlargerphysicalprocessesbeforetheruptureofafault—andthat sciencecandiscoverthese.

INTERVIEW:DIMITAROUZOUNOV12 EarthquakePrecursors: ‘TheScienceisReady,andNeedstoBeApplied’ GeophysicistDimitarOuzounov,aleadingfigureinnon-seismic earthquakeprecursorresearch,isinterviewedbyOyangTeng.

INTERVIEW:SEYIAUYEDAANDPANYIOTISVAROTSOS21 ApproachingtheCriticalPointinEarthquakePrediction ProfessorsSeyiaUyedaandPaniyotisVarotsos,whohavecollaborated onearthquakepredictionforthreedecades,areinterviewedby OyangTeng.

ON THE COVER: A two-stage suborbital sounding rocket launched by NASA into a brilliant aurora display above northern Alaska on Feb. 18, 2012, from the Poker Flat Research Range near Fairbanks. The Black Brant IX rocket carried an experiment from Cornell University to study space weather. Photo by Lee Wingfield/NASA; cover design by Alan Yue

Departments

EDITORIAL 2 FusionandForeknowledge 3 FusionBreakthroughatNIF LaurenceHecht

BOOKS79 DecodingtheHeavens:A 2,000-Year-OldComputer—and theCentury-LongSearchto DiscoverItsSecrets byJoMarchant ReviewedbyW.LeonardTaylor,M.D.

87 OutofThisWorld:NewMexico’s ContributionstoSpaceTravel byLorettaHall ReviewedbyGlennMesaros

88 WomenAstronomers:Reaching FortheStars byMabelArmstrong ReviewedbySteveCarr

Analmost-completedastrolabe,constructedusingaPC.Seep.38.

2 Winter2011-2012 21stCenturyScience&Technology

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If the vicious cuts demanded in theObamaAdministration’sproposedFY2013 budget are not reversed, the

U.S.fusionenergyprogramwilljointhegrowing list of crucial science projectssabotagedbyPresidentBarackObama’sfawningservilitybeforetheprincipleofoligarchyandthatnastyBritishroyalfam-ily which is its present embodiment.Harshwords,notthesorttobeutteredinrespectable precincts, especially wherefundingisatissue.Buttrue,nonetheless.

Fusionenergy,thispresentbeaconofhopeforallmankind,promisingafinalendtohumanwantanddeprivationonthisEarthandthespreadofouruniquespecies beyond its bounds, is on the

choppingblock.Andyet,itisnoexceptionalcase.The

guidingpolicy,sofranklyenunciatedbyBritain’sPrincePhilip,istoreduceworldpopulationby5 to6billionsouls.Thejustificationforthisactofpremeditatedmassmurder,istheargumentthattherearesimply toomanyofus to“sustain”ourselves.Allmeansandinstrumentsofhuman innovation which demonstratethefraudofthisassertion,mustthusbedestroyed. Consider some of the otherrecentmilestones, in thisevilandpre-meditated drive: The September 2011shutdownoftheTevatronacceleratoratFermilab, the U.S.A.’s only significantcapabilityforantimatterproduction;the

EDITORIAL

FusionandForeknowledge

WHATITTAKESTOREACHFUSION—ERDA’SLOGICIN1976In1976,theEnergyResearchandDevelopmentAdministration(ERDA)pub-lishedthischartshowingtherequiredfusionoperatingbudgetstoreachawork-ingmagneticfusionreactor.Eachoptionwascalleda“Logic,”andeachhadthreevariations fromoptimistic topessimistic.With$600to$750millionayear,asshowninLogicV,theprogramwouldhavebeenabletooperateadem-onstrationreactorby1990.LogicI,whichrepresentstheactualfusionbudgetsfrom1976tothepresent,produces“fusionnever,”asshown.Source: ERDA, 1976

21stCenturyScience&Technology Winter2011-2012 3

virtualendoftheU.S.mannedspaceprogram;the2005shutdownoftheFast Flux Test Facility at Hanford,Washington; the 23-year pogromagainstcoldfusion...andthelistgoeson.

Ifpassed,theFY2013fusionbud-getwillshutdownorseverelycrip-plethelastthreeremainingtokamakreactorsintheUnitedStates:TheAl-cator C-Mod at MIT would shutdown.TheongoingupgradeatPrinc-eton’s National SphericalTorus Ex-perimentwouldbeextendedbysixadditionalmonths,delayingrestartof this reactor until 2015. Thatwould leave the General AtomicsDIII-DinSanDiegoastheonlyop-eratingmajorfusionexperimentforthecomingthreeyears.Butanax-ing of one out of six staffers, andother cuts, would reduce its run-ning time to just 10 weeks out oftheyear.

ADownwardTrendSinceJFKItdidnotallstartwithourcurrentPres-

identObama’s servile allegiance to theBritishmonarchy’sstatedcommitmenttoamassmurderthatmakesHitler’sseemmild.Indeed,thetrendlineforscience,andhumanity’sfuture,hasbeenadown-wardonesincethe1963assassinationofPresidentJohnF.Kennedy.

Begin with the collapse in moralityproduced in America’s leaders by thepragmatic acceptance of the WarrenCommission’s cover-up—while a newPresident governed in fearof the assas-sin’s bullet. The long war inVietnam,whichJFKhadresisted,takingwisecoun-sel of General Douglas MacArthur, fol-lowedcloseon,andwithit,adestructionofthenationalwillfromwhichwehaveneveryetrecovered.

Theriotofirrationalitywhichaccom-paniedthe1960sbirthoftherock-drug-sexcounterculture,thatjointventureofCambridgeApostlesAldousHuxleyandBertrandRussell,twoofthelastcentury’smost evil men, opened the way to thesuccessful attack on science and theAmericanprincipleofprogress.

The insertionof thevirusofenviron-mentalism into the cell culture of theBaby Boomer generation then becamethe means by which all could be de-stroyed.Apopulation embracing adis-easewhichdestroysitself—nature’sulti-materecipeforself-destruction.

ThePrometheanPrincipleOurproblemisthatsciencedoesnot

presentlycontainwithinitselfthemeansforitsownperpetuation.Theprincipleofsciencedoesso,forinthatliesthesecretof human creativity, the Prometheanprinciple.Butthatisasubjectnolongertaught,nor tolerated.Tosucceed in thegameasplayednow,onesacrificesone’scommitmenttothatprincipleatanearlystage.Oneacceptsthedoctrineofreduc-tionism,ofbuildingupfrombelow,whenalltruth,theverynotionthatthereexists

auniversallaw,proceedsintheop-positedirection.

Theprinciplerepresentedinclas-sical culture by the name of Pro-metheus, which means foreknowl-edge, is the method of actualscientific discovery. That, not anyform of deductive method, is whathas led to every true discovery offundamentalimportance.

Mankind,uniqueamongallpres-ently known species, possesses theability to foresee, as a mental con-struct,truthsconsistentwiththoseofthenaturallaw,andtoactuponthosevisionsinwayswhichtransformna-turetohisownends.Insuchactsoftruediscoverywhichappear,notoutof any pre-existing understanding,but as if from the future,we act inharmonywiththecreativeprincipleofuniversalself-development.

Creativity, whether of the humanortheuniversalvariety,istheaction

ofthefutureuponthepresent.Itcanneverbederivedbydeductivemodesofthink-ingfrompastknowledge.Itisforeknowl-edge in the sense that classical thoughtidentifiedwiththenameofPrometheus,whowaschained toa rockbyZeus forbringing the gift of fire to mortal men.Suchisscience,andsuchalsoistheprin-cipleof classical composition inmusic,art, andpoetry. Free it, likePrometheusfrom his iron bonds, that mankind mayagainhavehopeandjoyandlove.

—LaurenceHecht

EDITORIAL

PrometheusdepictedonaGreekvase,boundtoastakewhileaneaglepecksathisheart.

TheNationalIgnitionFacility(NIF)atLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaborato-ry is to be congratulated for its recentworld historic achievement in laser fu-sion,amilestoneonthepathtoachiev-inganenergy-densesourceofpowerformankind’sfuture.

In a record-breaking shot made onMarch15,NIF’s192lasersfiredinper-fect unison, delivering a record 1.875millionjoulesofultravioletlaserlighttothefacility’s targetchambercenter.Thishistoric laser shot involved a shapedpulseofenergy23billionthsofasecondlongthatgenerated411trillionwattsofpeakpower(1,000timesmorethantheUnited States uses at any instant intime).

This achievement shows that despitetheviciouscutsintheU.S.fusionbudgetsince about 1980—and the still worsecuts proposed in President Obamas FY2013budget—wecanachieveworkablethermonuclear fusion by a variety ofmeans.Fusionprovides thehighest en-ergyfluxdensityofanypresentlyknownpowersource.Itisthekeytofutureeco-nomicdevelopment,andanabsolutere-quirementforpoweringman'snextstepintospace.

Laser, magnetic, and inertial electro-dynamicmethodsofthermonuclearfu-sion, as well as cold fusion research,mustbefullyfundedonacrashprogrambasis to assure the futureof ournationandtheworld.

FusionBreakthroughatNIF


Earthquakesareinsomewaysthemostunset-tlingofnaturaldisasters.Ontheonehand,the furies unleashed by tornadoes, hurri-

canes, and even volcanoes, appear to developsomewhat logically from the action of clouds,winds, and smoking calderas in plain sight.TherumblingsoftheEarth,ontheotherhand,seemabetrayalofanalmostingrainedtrustinthesolidityofthegroundbeneathourfeet—andworse,theyseemtostrikewithnowarning.

Ordothey?Eyewitnessreportsgoingbackmillenniatestify

to the existence of aberrations preceding largeearthquakes: spooked animals, foggy air, fouled

wellwater.Inrecentdecades,observationswithavarietyofsatelliteandground-basedinstruments,haveexpandedthe list to includeamultitudeoftransientphenomenaoutsidetherangeofournor-malperception:changesintheelectricalconduc-tivityoftheair,pulsationsinthegeomagneticfield,variationsintheelectrondensityoftheionosphere,andspikesinelectricalgroundcurrentsnearepi-central zones, among others.These non-seismicsignals have been observed on numerous occa-sions anywhere from weeks to days and hoursleadinguptoanearthquake,speakingtothecom-plexityofthemuchlargerprocessofphysicalprep-arationsurroundingtheactualruptureofafault.

OUT OF THE SHADOWS

The Emerging Science of Earthquake PredictionbyOyangTeng

AerialphotooftheSanAndreasFaultintheCarrizoPlain,northwestofLosAngeles.


Inonesense,itshouldcomeasnosurprisethatearthquakesareoftenprecededbyanumberofseeminglyunrelated,pre-cursory phenomena—not unlike a patient presenting with arange of symptoms, says Chapman University geophysicistDimitarOuzounov,aleadingscientistinthefieldofearthquakeprecursors.Only,inthiscase,thepatient’sinsidesarebuiltfrommassiveblocksofrocktensofkilometersthick,comprisedofavarietyofmineralsunderimmensepressure,someofwhicharecapableofcarryingelectriccharge,andcontainingmicroscop-icporesandfracturechannelspulsingwithhighpressure,high-temperatureaqueousfluidsandgasessuchashydrocarbons,carbondioxide,andradon.

Itwouldbestrangeifthephysicalpotentialsbuiltintosuchasystemunderaccumulatingstressandstrain,bringingintoplayacomplexofmechanical,electromagnetic,andgeochemicalphenomena, were not discharged in some detectable formleadinguptothefinalruptureofafaultzone.Thebiggertheearthquake,thegreatertheprecursor“symptoms.”

However, the process just described, visualizable in theimagination,islargelyamystery.Earthquakeepicentersarelo-catedmilesbelowthesurface,wherewehavenodirectobser-vations.Ourdeepestdrillholesgenerallypenetratenomorethanabout5kilometersbeneaththesurface(therecordis10km)ataveryfewselectspotsontheplanet;yet,earthquakesclassedas“shallow”canextenddownto70km,withthedeep-estrecordedepicenteratroughly700km.Ourknowledgeofthedetailedcompositionanddynamicsofthedeepcrust,letalonethemantlebeneathit,isstillconjectural.

Theencompassingarmatureforthegeosciences,includingseismology,hasbeenprovidedbythetheoryofplatetectonics.Itgainedwidespreadacceptancebeginninginthe1960sasawaytoaccountformatchingfossilsandlandformsonseparatecontinents, seafloor spreading along the mid-Ocean ridges,and—most important for seismologists—the observation thatmost earthquakes are concentrated within thin geographicalbandsthatarenowknowntodemarcateplateboundaries.

(Intraplateearthquakes,occurringfarfromanyknownplateboundariesand,therefore,withoutanyconventionalexplana-tionfortheircause,haveprovedtobeaparticularlydeadlyex-ceptiontothisrule.Astudypublishedin2011showedthat,notcountingdeaths from tsunamis, these intraplatequakeshavekilledmorepeopleinthelast120yearsthanthemorecommonquakesalongplateboundaries).

Becausethestrongestempiricalevidenceforplatetectonicspertains toprocessesoccurringon the geological timescalesneededforcontinentstomove,itisfartoobluntatooltobeap-pliedtoearthquakeprediction,whichmustbeabletoidentifyboththemagnitudeandlocationofacomingquakeonatime-scaleofhoursordays.

Butdespitethefactthatwecannotyetdirectlyobservethesubsurfacecrust,itssecretsarenotsoeasilycontained.Asbio-geochemistVladimirVernadskywas thefirst todescribe, theconcentricgeospheresoftheEartharecloselyintegrated.There-fore,the300-kmthickshellextendingdownbeneathourfeet,containing the majority of earthquake epicenters, can beprobedindirectlybyexaminingthetransientelectromagnetic

EARTHQUAKEPRECURSORSANDTHEIRSENSINGMECHANISMSAmulti-parametersensorwebcanprovidethemeansforearthquakeprediction,throughtheintegrationofgroundandsat-ellite-basedmeasurementsofprecursorphenomenaintheground,atmosphere,andionosphere.


“shadows” projected on the 300-km thick curtain of atmo-spherewhichrisesupwardfromthesurface.

Criticsarguethat theseshadowsaretooelusivetobereli-able.Theverydiversityandseeminginconsistencyofprecursorphenomenahasbeenusedtoargueagainsttheirvalidity;according to traditionalseis-mology,theymustbeflukes,orartifactsinthe data. Moreover, critics argue, theredoesn’tseemtobeanyoverarchingmecha-nism,likeplatetectonics,totiethemallto-gether.Yet,thelackofagreementonapar-ticulartheoryormechanismhasn’tstoppedthecontinuedaccumulationofevidenceforsystemicearthquakeprecursorsbyresearch-ersacrosstheworld.

TheCaseofJapanTheurgencysurroundingearthquakepre-

dictionwasputsharplyinfocusbylastyear’sMarch11magnitude9.0Tohokuearthquakeandtsunamiwhichkilledover15,000peo-pleinJapan,theworld’smostdisaster-pre-parednation.Ninemonthslater,attheDec.5-9 Fall conferenceof theAmericanGeo-

physical Union (AGU) in San Francisco—the world’s largestgeophysicsgathering—aninternationalgroupofscientistsdem-onstratedthatstrongprecursorwarningsignshad,infact,pre-cededthemegaquake.

Lance Cpl. Garry Welch/U.S. Marine Corps

TheMarch11,2011mega-earthquakeinJapan,whichkillednearly20,000peopleandleftscenesofdestruction,asshownhere,didhaveprecursorwarningsigns.

15OFTHELARGESTTECTONICPLATESMostearthquakestakeplacewithinthenarrowgeographicalbandsthatdemarcateplateboundaries.Source: USGS


Transmission ofVery Low Fre-quency(VLF)andLowFrequency(LF)electromagneticwaves to re-ceiversbywayofreflectionoffthelower layers of the ionosphere(about60-90kmhigh),allowsci-entists tomeasurechangesintheionospherebyanalyzingchangesinthesignalpropagation.UsingaworldwidenetworkofsuchVLF/LFtransmittersandreceivers,MasahiHayakawa andYasuhide Hobara,from the University of Electro-CommunicationsnearTokyo,mea-sured an anomalous drop in theheightoftheionosphereinthere-gion above the future epicenterabout five days before the mainshock.

Hayakawa believes that thisprecursory phenomenon, whichhasbeenmeasuredinotherearth-quakes theyhave studied, resultsfrom pre-earthquake fractureswhich send vibrations, called at-mospheric gravity waves, upthroughtheairandintotheiono-sphere.Hobarapresented the re-sultsoftheirworkinasessionde-voted to “Monitoring of MegaEarthquake Disasters by Integrat-ing Multi-parameter and Multi-sensorsObservationsfromGroundandSpace.”

DimitarOuzounov,whochairedthesession,hasfoundthatatmosphericandionosphericanom-alies consistently appear roughly 1 to 5 days before majorearthquakes.Among these are satellite-detected long wave-lengthinfraredemissions(intherangeofthermalimaging),ap-pearingwithinthetroposphereupto12kmabovethesurface.Ouzounov,alongwithSergeyPulinetsoftheMoscow-basedInstitute ofApplied Geophysics, and others, measured suchthermalanomalieslocalizedinthegeneralregionabovethefutureepicenterinthedaysbeforetheTohokuquake,byana-lyzingdeviationsfromareferencebackgroundofsatellite-de-rivedatmosphericinfraredradiationfromtheprevioussevenyears.

A rapid increase in emitted infrared emission began onMarch8,threedaysbeforethemainshock.AccordingtotheLAIC (Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Coupling) modeldevelopedbyOuzounovandPulinets,theanomaliesarecon-nectedtothereleaseofradioactiveradongaswithintheareaofearthquakepreparation.Radonionizestheatmosphere,pro-ducingionclusterswhichserveascondensationnucleiforat-mosphericwatervapor,andasthevaporcondenses,itreleaseslatentheatintheformofinfraredradiation.

Theyfoundthatthisalsocoincidedwithanomalousprecur-soryspikesofthetotalelectroncontent(TEC)oftheionosphereabove the epicentral zone, measured by three independent

techniques: through GPS satellites transmitting to ground-basedreceivers;radiotomography,involvingradiotransmis-sions from low-orbiting satellites toground-based receivers;andsoundingsfromfourJapaneseionosondes,ground-basedradarinstallationswhichbouncevaryinghigh-frequencysig-nalsoffdifferentlayersoftheionosphereandanalyzethetimedelayoftheresultingechoes.

Ineachcase,themeasuredelectronconcentrationgrewtoamaximumonMarch8,returningtonormalwithinseveraldaysfollowingtheearthquake.AsexplainedbytheLithospere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Coupling model, these ionosphericanomalies are the result of the ionosphere’s sensitivity tochangesintheconductivityoftheloweratmosphere,causedbyradon-inducedionization.

Ionospheric anomalies were also detectable within onehouroftheearthquake.DeliveringtheAGUBowielectureon“GPSArrayasaSensorofLithosphere,TroposphereandIono-sphere,”KosukeHekiofHokkaidoUniversityinJapanshowedhowthetotalelectroncontentoftheionosphereabovethefu-tureepicentermarkedlyincreased,beginningabout50min-utesbeforequakebegan,andgradually subsided tonormalwithinanhourorso.Themeasurementswereobtainedbyan-alyzingphasedifferencesindualsignalssentfromGPSsatel-lites toground stations,utilizingboth thedensenetworkof

THERMALANOMALIESBEFORETHETOHOKUEARTHQUAKEAnomalousOutgoingLongwaveRadiation(OLR)measuredbysatelliteinthegen-eralregionabovetheepicenter(theblackstar)inthedaysleadinguptotheMarch11,2011Tohokuearthquake in Japan.The infrared thermalanomalies, indicatedwithintheredcircle,weredeterminedbycomparingoutgoinglongwavelengthmea-surementsonagivendayagainstareferencebackgroundfieldofOLRdataforthesamedayforthesevenyearsbetween2004-2011.Source: D. Ouzounov, S. Pulinets, et. al., “Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earth-quake Revealed by Joined Satellite and Ground Observations, Preliminary Results.

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1105/1105.2841.pdf


about1,000GPSreceiversinstalledwithinJapan,aswellasaglobal network of 100+ receivers that are used to constructglobalionosphericmaps.

Heki,whoseanalysiswaspublishedintheSept.15,2011is-sueofGeophysicalResearchLetters,alsofoundthesamepat-ternof localizedGPS-totalelectroncontent increasesbegin-ning roughly 50 minutes before the main shock for the twootherlargestearthquakesofthepastdecade:themagnitude9.2Sumatra-Andamanquakein2004andthemagnitude8.8Chilequakeof2010,aswellasthesmallermagnitude8.3Hokkaido-Toho-Okiquakeof1994.Ineachcase,therewasacleardepen-denceofthesizeoftheanomalyonthemagnitudeoftheearth-quake.

While stating that “no conclusive models” have been put

forth,Hekipointstotwopossibleexplanationsfortheelectroncountenhancementprecedingtheselargequakes.ThefirstisthatproposedbyOuzounovandPulinets,bywhichalphade-cayofradonchangestheresistivityoftheloweratmosphere,disturbingtheglobalelectriccircuit—thediffuseflowofcurrentthatflowsbetweenthenegativelychargedionosphereandthepositively charged surface of the planet—and redistributingionosphericelectrons.

TheotherisamechanismproposedbyNASAphysicistFrie-demannFreund, involving theproductionof electric groundcurrentsinducedbyseismicstress.Inthisscenario,subatomicalterationsinthecrystallatticeofigneousorhigh-grademeta-morphicrockspropagatetowardthesurfaceaspositivechargecarriers, leading to the ionization of the near-surface atmo-

TOTALELECTRONCOUNTCHANGESINSELECTEDEARTHQUAKESShownarethetotalelectroncount(TEC)changesandtheirmodelsinthe2011Tohokuearthquake,the2004Sumatra-Andamanearthquake,the1994Hokkaido-Toho-Okiearthquake,andthe2010Chile(Maule)earthquake.Thehorizontalaxisshowsthetimefromtheearthquakes.Dashedcurvesingrayforthetoptwotimeseriesshowthemodelsderivedwithdatapriortothepossibleonsetoftheprecursor.

TheinsetatrightshowstheverticalTECanomaliesimmediatelybeforetheearthquakesasafunctionoftheirmomentmag-nitudes.Colorscorrespondtothoseinthelargerfigure,anddatafromthreesmallerearthquakes(whitecircles)areincluded.Source: K. Heki, 2011. “Ionospheric Electron Enhancement Preceding the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake,” in Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol.38, No. L17312, doi:10.1029/2011GL047908.


sphere.AccordingtoFreund,thisnotonlyperturbstheiono-spherebyalteringtheverticalelectricgradient,butleadstothethermalinfraredanomaliesseenbyEarthobservationsatellites,asexpandingbubblesofpositiveionswellupintohigherlevelsoftheatmosphereandcatalyzewatervaporcondensation.

AMulti-ParameterApproachAlthoughparticularkindsofprecursormeasurementshave

yielded positive results in many of the earthquakes studied,thereisnooneparameterthathasprovenconsistentacrossallofthem.Forthisreason,manyprecursorscientistsemphasizethat real-timepredictionwilldependon the integrationof anumberofdifferentmeasurementsofprecursorsignalssimulta-neously.

As Ouzounov pointed out in a presentation on “UtilizingNewMethodologiestostudyMajorEarthquakes:Multi-Param-eterObservationofPre-earthquakeSignalsfromGroundandSpace,”thisrequiresanintegratedsensorwebofnewsatellitesandgroundinstrumentsdeployedacrosstheglobe,enabling,minimally,constantcoverageoftheearthquakehotspotsaroundthePacificRimandtheinlandzonestretchingfromTurkeytoIran,andthroughtoIndiaandChina.

InadditiontotheTohokuearthquake,multi-parameterhind-castshavebeenperformed fordozensof largeearthquakes,including Sumatra-Andaman 2004 (magnitude 9.2),Wench-uan,China2008(M7.9),Haiti2010(M7.0),andChile2010(M8.8).Precursorswerealsofoundforrelativelysmallerearth-quakessuchasL’Aquila,Italy2009(M5.8)andtheMineral,

Virginia,quake(M5.8)thattooktheeasternseaboardoftheUnitedStatesbysurpriseonAug.23,2011.

ScientistslikeOuzounovareconfidentthatsuchhindcasts,presentedbyparticipants fromRussia,Europe, Japan,China,andtheUnitedStatesduringtheposterandoralsessionsinSanFrancisco,havevalidatedthegeneralprogramofprecursorre-searchasthebasisforshort-termearthquakeprediction.

But such researchhasbeenviewedwith skepticism, evenhostility,bymainstreamseismology.

“Weareintheabsoluteminorityglobally,”saidgeophysicistSeyiaUyeda,aprofessoremeritusatTokyoUniversity,duringajointpresentationwithGreekphysicistPanyiotisVarotsosonapanelon“PredictingExtremeEvents.”“AlthoughIhavedeepre-spectforseismologists,seismologistsdon’tlikeus,”Uyedasaid.

Andbecauseseismologistsgenerallycontrolappropriationsforearthquakeresearch,scientistsstudyingnon-seismicprecur-sorshaveoperatedalmostentirelywithoutgovernmentsupport.DespitetheheightenedinterestinearthquakepredictionaftertheJapandisaster,acorrespondingleveloffundinghasnotbeenforthcoming.IntheUnitedStates,theausterityistypifiedbytheObamaAdministration’sdecisioninlateFebruary2011tocan-cel theplannedDESDynInaturalhazardmonitoringsatellite,whichwouldhaveperformedhigh-fidelityobservationsintheradarandopticalrange,andtomakecutstootherremotesens-ingsatelliteprogramsonwhichprecursormonitoringdepends.

Onenotableexceptiontothelackofgovernmentsponsor-shiphasbeenChina.XuemenZhangoftheBeijing-basedInsti-tuteofEarthquakeScience,outlinedtheChinesegovernment’s

INCREASEINTOTALELECTRONCONTENTBEFORETOHOKUEARTHQUAKEThetotalelectroncontent(TEC)intheionosphereabovetheepicenteroftheTohokuearthquakeincreased,beginningabout50minutesbeforethequakebegan.Theverticalanomaliesintotalelectroncontentoftheionosphereareshownatthreetimeperiods,(a)1hour,(b)20minutes,and(c)1minutebeforethe2011Tohokuearthquake,asobservedatJapanese-basedGPSstationswithGPSsatellitesinEarthorbit.Positiveanomalies(redcolor)areseentogrownearthefocalregion.Source: K. Heki, K. (2011), “Ionospheric Electron Enhancement Preceding the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake,” Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 38, No. L17312, doi:10.1029/2011GL047908.


ambitiousexpansionofthecountry’sprecursormonitoringca-pabilities,withthelaunchofthreededicatedearthquakemoni-toring satellites plannedbetween2014-2017, aswell as theconstructionof50newionosondes(upfromthecurrent20inoperation)inthenextfiveyearsaspartofanexpandedseismo-ionosphericground-basedmonitoringnetwork.

“They’redoingthisbecausetheyrealizethetechnologyisaf-fordable,andthescienceisready,andneedstobeapplied,”saidOuzounov.

“WhyChina?Becausetheyhavetheeconomicpotentialtoput about $100 million into this project. But also becausethey’renotafraidtotestnewideas,newmethodologies.”

HazardousAssessmentsIn itsstarkest terms, thefieldofearthquakeprediction—or

lackthereof—isabouthumanliveslosttosuddencatastrophe,apointdrivenhomebyVladimirKossobokovof theRussian

AcademyofSciences’InternationalInstituteofEarthquakePre-dictionTheoryandMathematicalGeophysics.Inatalkwiththedeceptivelydrytitle“StatisticalValidationofEarthquakeRelat-ed Observations,” Kossobokov presented a withering indict-mentofthestatusquoinassessing,andthereforepreparingfor,earthquakehazards.

In its retreat fromearthquakeprediction,whichwasonceconsideredtheholygrailofthefield,seismologyhassettledonbroadforecastsoftheprobabilitythatcertainareaswillexperi-enceacertainmagnitudeofseismicriskwithina30-to50-yeartimeframe.While short-term prediction relies on precursors,long-termforecastsrelyonpasteventstomodelrisk,basedonstatistical extrapolations and certain assumptions about thewayfaultsystemsbuildupstrainovertime.

Thishasbeencodified,forexample,intheGlobalSeismicHazardAssessmentProgram(GSHAP)mappublishedin1999,whichisusedasastandardreferenceforgovernmentsindeter-

SEISMICHAZARDMAPThe12deadliestearthquakesbetween2000-2011(11arerepresentedasbluedots)claimedsome700,000lives.Ineverycase,theactualseismicintensityoftheearthquakeexceededthemaximumpredictedbytheGlobalSeismicHazardAs-sessmentProgram(GSHAP)mappublishedin1999,whichisusedasastandardgovernmentreferenceforbuildingcodesandemergencyresponse.

OnJapan’sseismichazardmap(atcenter),publishedbythegovernmentin2009,thecoloredbarsindicatethegovern-ment’spredictionsoftheprobabilityofahighhazardorveryhighhazard(accordingtheGSHAPseismicintensitycriteria)earthquakeoccurringwithin30years.Ascanbeseenfromthebluelinesonthemap,theregionwhichactuallyexperi-encedthislevelofseismicintensityfromtheMarch2011earthquakewasgenerallyassessedasarelativelylow-hazardregion.Sources: Vladimir Kossobokov, International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Japan Meteorological Agency.


mining such regulations as buildingcodes.Butasameasureofriskfortheworstevents,ithasprovenaremark-ablyconsistentfailure.

Some 700,000 people have beenkilled globally in the 12 deadliestearthquakes (and related tsunamis)between 2000-2011. In every case,theactualmagnitudeoftheeventwasgreaterthanthemaximumforecastoftheGSHAPmap—theTohokuquakeoccurred in a region generally as-sessedaslow-hazard,forexample—allowing Kossobokov to quantify asurprise factor for each earthquake.Thefailure,saysKossobokov,isoneofmethodology, of abstract models ofseismic processes accepted withoutpropervalidation,andgiventhestampofofficialgovernmentsanction.

“Very often people would suggesttheseismichazardassessmentmapsasanalternativetoprediction,asare-liableinstrumenttoreducedisasters,”saidKossobokov.Butithappenedthatit’snotso.Ithappenedthatthosemapscreate disasters, by introducing thewrongestimateofhazards.”

One of the most vocal critics ofearthquakeprediction,UniversityofTokyoseismologistRobertGeller,alsotakesissuewiththeuseofhazardmapsforriskassessment,butforadifferentreason.InacommentaryintheApril28,2011issueofNaturemaga-zine,titled“ShakeUpTimeforJapaneseSeismology,”Gellerarguedthatthemapsshouldbescrapped,notinfavorofgreat-er efforts at prediction, but instead, acceptance that earth-quakes are inherently unpredictable on any time scale:Weshouldinsteadtellthegovernmentandthepublicto“preparefortheunexpected.”

But,accordingtoSeyiaUyeda,seismologistssimplyaren’tequippedforearthquakeprediction,bytheverynatureoftheircurrentjobdescription.

“Seismologyisascienceofearthquakesbasedonseismicre-cordsrecordedbyseismograms.Andseismogramsonlyrecordearthquakes,notprecursors,”Uyedasaid.“Therefore,seismol-ogistsneversaytheycanpredictshort-term.Theyarehonestinthatrespect.Buttheythinktheyaretheonlypeoplewhounder-standearthquakes.That’sthetroublewiththewholething,inmyview.”

ANewGeophysicsWith earthquake science now swelling with ranks drawn

fromsuchfieldsasatmospheric, ionospheric,andsolid-statephysics, this institutionalprejudice isbound tochange,and,Ouzounovhopes,willsoonleadtoahybridsystemofresearchbetweenseismologistsandprecursorscientistsworkingincol-laboration.

Thestronglyinterdisciplinarynatureofsuchworkalsosug-gestsimplicationsthatgobeyondpracticalearthquakepredic-tion,butpointtothepossibilityofanewkindofgeophysics.For

example,thecloseelectrodynamiccouplingofthelithosphere,atmosphere,andionospheremayprovideanewframeworkforstudiesthathaveshownstrongcorrelationsbetweensolarac-tivity and seismicity, perhaps revealing previously unknownpathwaysforseismictriggering.Thislineofinvestigationover-lapsrecentdecades’developmentsinclimatescience,inwhichsolaractivityhasbeenfoundtoplayasignificantroleinpro-cessessuchascloudformation,throughitsinfluenceovertheelectrodynamicsoftheatmosphere.

TheevidenceforcosmicinfluencesovertheEarthextendsevenfurther,intogalactic-scaleprocesseswhoseeffectscanberead,amongotherthings,inthegeologicalrecordoflong-pe-riodcyclesofseismicandvolcanicactivity.

Theselargerquestions,concedesOuzounov,shouldnotbeignored.Butforthemoment,hesaysthatheandhiscolleaguesarefocussedonvalidatingtheirmethodologiesthroughanac-tualproof-of-conceptprediction,whichtheyhopewillbolstertheircasewiththeskeptics.Iftheproperresourceswereavail-abletoday,heestimatesthatreal-timemonitoringoftheUnitedStates,forexample,couldbearealitywithinayear.

Inthemeantime,theurgencyforsuchaprogramisnotlikelytodiminish.Largeearthquakeshaveproventobemoredestruc-tiveaspopulationdensitieshaveincreased,andthefrequencyofmegaquakes,suchastheTohokudisaster,appeartohavein-creasedinthelastdecade.Thepointatwhichnaturaldisastersbecomeman-madeones,willdependonthechoiceswemakeinthecomingperiod.

OyangTeng isamemberof theLaRouche“basement” [email protected]

NASA

Thisillustration(nottoscale)showsacoronalmassejectionblastingofftheSun’ssurfacetowardtheEarth(thewhitedotinsidethebluelinesontheright).Twotofourdayslater,theCMEcloudisshownstrikingandbeginningtobedeflectedaroundtheEarth’smag-netosphere.Thebluelinesrepresentmagneticfieldlines.


GeophysicistDimitarOuzounovworksasanassociateprofessoratChapman University in CaliforniaandastaffscientistatNASA’sGod-dardSpaceFlightCenterinMary-land. Since conducting an acci-dental precursor study in 2000,while he was analyzing thermalimage data from NASA’s MODIS(Moderate Resolution ImagingSpectroradiometer) satellite, Ou-zounovhasemergedasaleadingfigure in the field of non-seismicearthquakeprecursorresearch.

Dr.Ouzounovwas interviewedbyOyangTengonDec.8,2011,attheAmerican Geophysical UnionFallconferenceinSanFrancisco.

21stCentury:Whatisyouroverviewof the current state of precursor re-search?

Ouzounov:Precursorresearchisbasedonthescienceofstudyingthesignalsas-sociated with the appearance of majorearthquakes,andhistorically itwasde-velopedinthelast20years.Atthecur-rent status of earthquake prediction to-day,it’snotpossibletogiveyouthesameinformationasaweatherforecastaboutapossibleearthquake.

So, a lot of research has been pro-posed, mostly about any physical phe-nomena associated with earthquakes.Theideahasbeenresearchdedicatedtoanyphysicalconnectionbetweendiffer-entsignalswithearthquakepreparationprocesses.Theideaisthatthereissome-thing ongoing related to earthquakes,andthatthesekindofmega-eventscouldbedetectedinadvance.And2011alsobecame very important because of theJapaneseearthquake.

What’s different today?Twenty yearsagowehadno satellitemeasurements.Todaywehavelotsofdatafromsatellites,andmanyscientistsaretryingtousesat-ellites for thiskindofresearch.What is

new in earthquake science in 2011, isthatmanyscientistsareapplyingmeth-odologyusingsatellitedata.

The second new technology is that

GPS (global positioning systems),became very affordable and veryconvenient.NowJapan,California,Europe,Asia,SouthAmerica,havesomanyGPSreceivers,thatpeoplearetryingtouseGPS,notonlyforground deformation studies, butalsotostudyionosphericscience.Sothenewtechnologyprovidesanew opportunity for scientists tostudyandtoanalyzenewdata.

Today,wehaveseenduringthismeeting new methods proposedforusingsatellitedata,usingGPS,but this methodology is still farfromvalidation;itneedstimetobestudied. In other words, we needmorestatistics,moreearthquakes,inordertodecisivelyconfirmthat

anymethods,anynew ideas,havesys-tematicvalueforearthquakeprediction.

21st Century: I was struck by how

INTERVIEW:DIMITAROUZOUNOV

Earthquake Precursors: ‘The Science Is Ready, and Needs to Be Applied’

DimitarOuzounovattheAGUmeeting.

EARTHQUAKESWORLDWIDE(REALTIME)Thereisgooddataaboutearthquakeswhentheyhappen,asthisrealtimemapshows.Thechallengeistopredictmajorearthquakesbeforetheyhappentowarntheaffectedpopulations.OuzounovandotherscientistsattheAGUcon-ferencearecollaboratingonthistask.Source: USGS

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/


quicklyChinaseemstobemovinginthisdirection,asfaraspolicy.Whereisthemostactiveareaofresearchinternation-ally?

Ouzounov:Yes,Chinabecameaveryimportantplayerinthisfield.Historical-ly,it’sbeenthecaseformanyyears,butwedidn’tpayitanyattention,forthesim-plereasonthatwehadnoglobalizationin science. Now we do have, whichmeans it’s much easier to integrate ourideasover the Internet, to interactwithpeopleinChina.

And now, Chinese scientistscan speak English; before, itwasaproblem!Chinaopenedthe opportunity, and I’m verydelightedtohavevisitedChinathisyear,fortworeasons.Iwaspartofa review teamfor theirsatellite system. They’re plan-ning a very ambitious satellitesystem to study earthquakes.But not only with satellites:they’re trying to build satelliteandgrounddatameasurements.Andthey’veputinlotsofmon-ey, but they realize they don’thave enough knowledge. Sotheyinvitedexpertsfromdiffer-entpartsoftheworldtoChina,andaretryingtolearn.

We gave several presenta-tions over the last few years,and this year was very impor-tant because China’s govern-mentfundedthenextfiveyears

ofitssystem.Onesatelliteisgoingtobelaunchedin2014,andtherewillbetwomorein2017and2018.Andtheques-tionis,“Whyaretheydoingthat?”

They’redoingthisbecausetheyrealizethat the technology today isaffordable,andthescienceisready,andneedstobeapplied.WhyChina?Becausetheyhavethe economic potential to put about$100million into thisproject.But alsobecause they’re not afraid to test newideas,newmethodologies.

Ididn’tknowthatuntilIvis-ited China and found thatthey’vebeendoingthisfor20years. I saw animals, I sawbirds, I saw very old designtechniques and hardware,working for15yearson this.Butbecausewehadnocon-nectionwiththeChinese,wedidn’t know about that. Andnow they said, “We’re inter-ested, we’d like to cooper-ate.”

What’sgoing tohappen inChinameansverymuchtous,because with the end of theFrenchmissionDEMETER[anearthquake precursor moni-toring satellite, decommis-sioned in December 2010—ed.],theirsatellitesystemwillbe mostly the only one we

canworkwithforthenextfiveyears.Andtheyareveryopenforthat.

21stCentury:They’llbetheonlycoun-trywithadedicatedearthquakemoni-toringsatellite?

Ouzounov:TheRussiansarealsodo-ing it,actually.But theChinesewillbedoingitmuchmoreopenly,andthescalewillbedifferent.TheRussiansnowhavemanysatellites,andtheyintegratethesemeasurements over their areas of inter-

NASA

Thereare24satellites,orbiting20,000kmabovetheEarthin12-hourcircularorbits.Thesatellitesaredividedintosixgroups of four, each with a differentpath, creating sixorbital planeswhichcompletelysurroundtheEarth.

SEISMICZONESINCHINAChinahasalarge-scaleprogramtomonitorearthquakesandprecursorphenomena.

Boeing

Artist’sillustrationofaGPSsatellite.


est, as in Kamchatka in Eastern Russiawhere theyhave somany earthquakes,andtrytounderstandhowdifferentsatel-litesandgrounddataworktogether.Rus-siahas theexperienceofdoing this formanyyears.

But China provides the large scale,much more than satellites. They arebuildingagrounddatacenterwhich isprettybig.Andtheyhaveasimplereasontodothat:economics.Theyhavetwoar-easofmajorconcern.OneiscentralChi-na, and the second is western China,which ishighelevatedmountains.Andthereisnootherwaytostudyit;it’sverydifficulttoinvestigateontheground,andsatellitetechnologyisprettycheaptoday.Sotheycandothat.

It’smuchcheapertodoitfromspace,andtheycancoveralargeterritory,andthentheycanbringininternationalsci-entists, because these satellites are notonlyforChina,theycanstudyotherplac-es,likeEurope,andtheUnitedStates,soit’sadoublewinforChina.

21stCentury:Ontheactualprecursorparameters that are studied—and the

fieldisasbroadasanimalbehavior,toactual seismic foreshocks, to the elec-trodynamicsoftheatmosphere,tother-malemissions—arethesedifferentpre-

cursorparameters tellingussomethingnewaboutthegeophysicalprocessesin-volved?Inotherwords,dotheygiveusnewinsightintotheactualnatureofthephysicalpreparation,not justofearth-quakes,butmaybethewaytheplanetasawholeisorganized?

Ouzounov:Yes,thisisgivingnewin-sightabouttheEarth.Younameitexactlycorrectly: it’spreparation.We’re talkingaboutformega-earthquakes,we’retalk-ing about preparation for large-scaleevents.Usually large-scale eventsneedmuch more time for preparation, andmany more parameters are sensitive tothis preparation. So this means we’veseen multi-parameter changes, not be-causewe’relookinginspecificfields,butbecausenatureprovidesthisopportuni-ty.Sothatmeanswehavetohaveabetterphysicstounderstandnature.

So let’s suppose, “Is this only earth-quakes?”

No,precursoryscienceisthesameasmedicalscience;justthelanguageisdif-ferent.When you go to the doctor, helooksforsymptoms.Symptomsisjustan-other name for precursor, right? Andwhenyougotothedoctor,you’resick,but youdon’t knowwhat’swrongwithyou.Andusuallywhat theydo is aCTscan, temperature, other analysis—ex-actlywhatwedo.

We check different wavelengths, wecheckdifferentmedicine,wecheckdif-

DamagetotheAgricultureDevelopmentBankofChinabranchinBeiChuanafterthedevastatingearthquake,May12,2008.TheU.S.GeologicalSurveyreportedthattherewere“atleast69,195peoplekilled,374,177injuredand18,392missingandpre-sumeddeadintheChengdu-Lixian-Guangyuanarea.Morethan45.5millionpeoplein10provincesandregionswereaffected.Atleast15millionpeoplewereevacuatedfromtheirhomesandmorethan5millionwerelefthomeless.Anestimated5.36mil-lionbuildingscollapsedandmorethan21millionbuildingsweredamaged....Thetotaleconomiclosswasestimatedat$86billion.”

Logan Abassi/U.N. Photo

Themagnitude7earthquakeinHaitionJan.12,2010,qualifiesasamega-quakebe-causeofthetremendousdestructionofpeopleandbuildings.Here,apoorneighbor-hoodinPortauPrince,flattenedbytheearthquake.


ferentsymptoms,differentpre-cursors, different physics. Sotheapproachisthesame.

I learned a lot about earth-quakepredictionfrommydoc-tor, because I had someprob-lems with my health, andseveraltimesIhadtodofourorfivedifferentchecks.And thenhesaid,“Okay,wehavesomeproblem,but Idon’t trust that;we need to double check.” Inourlanguage,hesaidtheanom-alyisnotstatisticallysignificant.

Sonow,we’retryingtotakethe anomaly, but we need tocheckwiththenormal.Andmydoctordidthesameteststhreetimes,becausehesaid,“Maybeit’sthewronginstrument,may-beyouhadmuchmorecoffeeinthemorning,maybethelabdid it in thewrongway.”Andon the fourth time, he said,“Yes,you’reokay,itwaserror.”

That’s why we’re following the sameanalysisinourwork.We’retryingtointe-gratedifferentphysicalmeasurements—but to integrate, we need to validate.Howsignificantaretheytothenormal?—inwhichnormalmeansnomajorevent.

Major earthquakes are relatively rarecases,ifyoucomparewiththeeverydayevents, soyoushouldbeable todistin-guishwhatisthenormal,forexample,ifyoucheckbackgroundseismicityoveracertainarea.That’seasytosay,butmorecomplicatedtodo.Butwedoitthesameway as my doctor checking my bloodpressureorbloodtest;we’retryingtotakelongperiodsofdata,definewhat is thenormal status of these parameters, andthen see if we see abnormal behavior,and if this abnormal behavior has any-thingtodowithearthquakeprocesses.

We found that some events happenwithoutearthquakes,whichmeans thatsome parameters are influenced byweather,bythegeneralgeodynamicac-tivity,andwelearnthiswhenwedosta-tisticalanalysis.So,inotherwords,betterphysicsprovidesbetterscience,butalsoproves that seismic waves are not theonly waves that can give informationaboutearthquakes.Andthat’swhywe’reexploring electromagnetics, that’s whywe’re exploring atmospheric physics,ionosphericphysics.Becausewe foundthat the Earth interacts between mega-

events like volcanoes, earthquakes, sowe’relookingforthiscouplingbetweenphysicsenvironments.

21st Century: On the issue of mega-earthquakes, there seems to have beenanapparentriseintheincidenceofbothlargeearthquakesandlargevolcanoesinroughly the last 10 years. Earlier thisweek,therewasapostersessionattheconference, where somebody disputedtheclaimthattherehasbeenanincreaseinlargeearthquakes,basedonastatisti-calanalysis,butalsomotivatedbyaskep-ticism that any kind of global processcouldbeatwork, that themega-earth-quakes in different parts of the globecouldberelatedtoaunifiedprocess.

Couldyouspeaktothedifference,atleastonthemega-quakescale,betweensomethingthat’sactingonlyregionally,and the possibility that you’re dealingwithaglobalphenomenon?

Ouzounov: This is exactly the samequestion as global change: In otherwords,whetherweseeglobalwarming,or not. It depends on what your timescaleofanalysisis.Weseeglobalwarm-ing,butisitglobal,orisitnaturalorisitartificial?Wehaveaperceptionofsome-thinggoingveryhighintermsofearth-quakesorvolcanoes,butwhenyouscaleuptothe100yearsor50years,wecanseethereisjustafractionofchange.

I’ll say it this way: that we considermega-earthquakesnotonlyby thesize,

butalsobytheirlocation.Ifyouhavea9.0earthquakeinthemiddleofnowhere,inthePacificOcean,withzeropopula-tion,wedon’tconsiderthisamega-earth-quake.Weconsideramega-earthquaketobeonewhichhasanextremelyvastimpactonsociety.

Soifweconsiderthemega-impactofanearthquake,probablytheearthquakeinHaitiqualifies,eventhoughthemag-nitude is not so high.We consider themega-impact of the Wenchuan earth-quakeinChina,wheresomanypeopledied. Somagnitudematters, but it alsomatterswheretheearthquakeislocated.Thisiswhatwe’vebeendiscussingwithProf.SeyiaUyeda:Theincreasingdensityofpopulationbringswarningthataswemovetobigcities,theriskofhavingmorecasualtiesismuchhigher.

Because there is a global change ofareaofpopulation, itbecomesamuchhigherconcern tohaveanalert systemforamega-earthquake.Becauseamega-citylikeIstanbul,CairoinEgypt,Tehran,or the two biggest cities in Pakistan,whichareveryclosetothrustfaults—thatbecomesaproblem,becauseofthecon-stantgrowthofpopulationdensity,andconcern that even magnitude 6, 7 willplay a huge role. So this is one of thetrendsofstatistics.

Another trend of statistics is that ofcourse, we have been very busy withearthquakes for the last few years, andoneofthepossibleexplanationsforthis

NASA

AvideograbofauroraborealisoverNorthernNorthAmericaandCanadatakenbythecrewofExpedition30onboardtheInternationalSpaceStation.ThesequenceofshotswastakenJan.29,2012,onapassfromtheNorthPacificOcean,approximately1,000mileswestofwesternQuebec.Thevideocanbeseenhere.

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=132065901


bypeopleworkingwithspacescience,isthat there is increasing solar activity.Many scientists consider the link be-tweenSunandEarthasapossibleinter-actionandactivityon theglobal scale.Butthisisaconnectionthat’sbeeninsci-enceformany,manyyears.

Now this connection is more fresh,keeping in mind climate change, be-cause,asyouseeatthismeeting,oneofthevery interesting topics inmanyses-sions,isthesolar-Earthconnectiontocli-matechange:Maybeweseeanincreas-ingintemperaturebecauseofincreasingsolaractivity.

Therearemanyquestionswecannotanswernow,but thatdoesn’tmeanwestoplookingforsolutions.We’relookingforsolutions,andsciencetodayisbetterthanyesterday,butnextyearwillbebet-terthanthisyear.

21st Century:You brought up thesolar-Earthconnection.Again,wedon’thaveanswers,butI’dlikeyourviewontwo related points: First, is it possiblethatalotoftheprecursoractivitythat’smeasured, including especially thingslikegroundcurrentandotherelectrody-

namiceffectsintheatmosphere,aren’tsimplyanendresultofseismicactivity,butmayplaysomeroleinactuallycaus-ingseismicactivity,ortriggeringseismicactivity?

Second,oneofthemostobviousar-eas where this might be mediated isthroughtheSun-Earthrelationship,be-cause,asyoumentioned,we’restillnowfindingoutalotmoreabouthowclose-lyyouhavethiscouplingtothislargersystem.LargerthanjusttheEarthitself,larger than just indigenous processeswithinthedeepEarth.Howfarshouldweexpandourscopeintermsoflook-ing at—minimally—the solar environ-ment?

Ouzounov:That’s a very good ques-tion.Evenifyougavemeafewhours,Icouldnotactuallyfinishthis,becauseit’sendless, there are so many opportuni-ties!

Now,wehave good interactionwiththeSun,andformanythingsthathappenherewecanclaimtheSunisguilty,butweneedtohaveevidencethatit’sactu-allyreallyhappening.Wecantalkaboutdifferentsubjectsabout this interaction;itgoestodifferentlayers,amongclimate,

with the environment, with the food,temperature,earthquakes,allthesenatu-raldisasters.

Well, let us say there are two majorcomponents:onecomponentisconnect-edtoearthquakes.Therearetwodifferentcategorieswhichmostofthemainstreamseismologistsdon’tagreewith:thatthereareprecursors,andthat thereis trigger-ingofearthquakes.Inotherwords,thatthere is something deterministic in theway that earthquakes happen, and thatcouldbeblamedontheSun,oronsolar-planetinteractions,andthingslikethat.

Andbytheway,thereisalotofwork,published at some conferences, andsome work shows that planetary posi-tion,andsolaractivity,couldplayarole.TheMoon,ofcourse,couldplayaroleinthetriggeringofearthquakes.Andsome-bodysays:“OK,c’monguys,thisproba-blycontradictsyourprecursorstudies.Ifyouhaveaprecursor,howdoesthetrig-geractuallywork?Precursormeansthatthereisaphysicalenvironmentpreced-ingtheearthquake,leadingtothereleaseoftheevent.Andthenyousayalsothereis triggering, which comes from outerspace,orfromtheSunortheMoon.How

THERMALANOMALIESBEFORETHEVIRGINIAEARTHQUAKESatellitedatashowarapidchangeintheanomalousfluxrateofinfraredradiationabovetheepicentralarea,inMineral,Virginia,sevenhoursbeforetheAug.23,2011M5.8earthquake.ThiswasdeterminedbycomparisonwithareferencefieldofinfraredobservationsforthemonthofAugustbetween2004to2011.Source: “Satellite Thermal and GPS/TEC Observations of Atmospheric Process during the time of M5.8 Mineral, Virginia Earthquake of Aug. 23, 2011. Preliminary Results,” poster presentation at AGU conference, Dec. 6, 2011.


does this work together? Is there not acontradiction?”

Nothere’snot!Basically when you see interference

betweentheSunorotherplanets,thereisdefinitely interference with Earth, withtidalwaves,gravitationalwaves,electro-magneticcoronalmassejections(CMEs)from theSunandotheractivities—theyplayarolebecausetheEarthisoneelec-tromagneticsystem,andmanyscientistsare trying todostatisticsbetweensolaractivity,tidalactivity,andEarth,andtheyfoundinterestingresults.

Oneoftheresultsshowsthatinmostofthecases,wehaveamagneticstormdur-ingthetimeofearthquakeorbeforetheearthquake, and that’s a manifestationthatthere’saninteractionbetweensolaractivityandEarth,onsomelevel.It’snotclearyet if this issomethingtodowithpreparationofanearthquake,withtrig-gering of an earthquake; all this is, isthereissomeinteraction.

Andthesecondquestionis,“Howtouse this information?” Sometimes sci-enceworkswithaveryhighlevelofun-certainty.YouknowthattheSunorMoonorotherplanetscanplayarole,butyoudon’tknowwhatkindofrole,orhowtoquantifyit.Soinourresearch,wedon’thave pure evidence that solar activityand planetary position has a role, butthatdoesn’tmeanwedon’tusethisin-formation.

Inouranalysisofmultipleprecursors,weuseMoonphase,tidalwaves,andso-larcycleaspotentialadditionalsourcesinfluencingtheprecursoractivityandthetriggering of earthquakes. That doesn’tmeanI’m100percentinfavorofthat,butI have a few cases in our work whichshowsarealconnection,butalsocasesinwhichIseenoconnection.

Thereisaveryfamouswayofmakinga decision, called “Occam’s razor.”When you have two hypotheses, youhavetochooseoneofthem.Youtakethehypothesisthatismuchsimpler,lessen-tropy.SointhiscaseItrytoworkwithinwhat I know, but I also consider fromtimetotimetocheckwhatIdon’tknow.Basicallywe’recheckingthesolaractivi-ty,andtheMoon,andIthinkthisisveryhelpfulinformation.

21stCentury:Theposterthatyoupre-sented earlier in the week was on theprecursor hindcasting of the Mineral,

Virginia earthquake. That’s interestingbecause that was a pretty anomalousearthquake.LiketheNewMadridSeis-micZone,it’sanintraplateregion.Soitseemed like an anomalous earthquaketo begin with, and you have a studyshowingthattherearevalidatablepre-cursors for that.Could youbrieflyde-scribewhatyoufound,andsaywhetherthere’sanydistinctionofprecursorsforintraplateearthquakesversusthosethatoccuronplateboundaries?

Ouzounov:Yes, this is an interestingstudy,forthesamereason.IwasinVir-giniawhenthisearthquakehappened,soIhaverealexperience!Itwasinteresting,becauseIwaswelltrainedforthat,Iwas

outofmyhousein8seconds.Iwasfirstonmystreetandallmyneighborscameandtheysaid,“Whatwasit?”andIsaiditwas a 5.8 earthquake inVirginia. Andthey asked, “How do you know that?”AndIsaid,“Well,that’swhatIdo.”

But going back to the real scientificquestion:Itwasarealsurpriseforus,be-causewedon’texpectstrongearthquakesinVirginia.First,it’sanintraplateregion,liketheearthquakeweareprobablygo-ingtoexpectintheNewMadridzone—and some geologists say, maybe soon.Theseareverydangerousbecauseusu-allytheseregionsarenotprepared.Theirhouses and business buildings are notbuilt like those inCalifornia,according

‘SHAKEUP’MAPOFVIRGINIAFORAUG.25,2011EARTHQUAKEThestarmarkstheepicenterofthemagnitude5.8earthquake,whichsurprisedseismologists,becauseitisinanintraplateregion.Now,Ouzounovsaid,thisareaandotherslikeitwillbemonitoredforprecursoranomalies.Source: USGS


toseismicengineeringmodels,becausethey’reveryexpensive.Andthenpeoplearetotallyunprepared.

WesawwhathappenedinWashing-ton, D.C., when this earthquake hap-pened—panic,trafficjams,andallkindofthings.Whatwehavefoundisthatweare able to detect, to hindcast thermalanomaliesafewhoursanddaysbeforetheearthquake.Inotherwords,ifwehadthe chance to monitor the area, weshouldbeabletogetasignalinadvancewhich is going to tell us that in a fewhoursanearthquakewillhappen.

WepresumedVirginiawasnotactive.Butnowwe’re seriously considering tostudyVirginia,Maryland,andPennsylva-niaaswell,inouranalysisintheUnitedStates.Andwhatwehavefoundisather-mal signal with a significant anomalyneartheepicenter,anditwasthebiggestsignal over the entire United States,which normally is not the case. Thisanomalyshowsexactlythereasonwedothisanalysis.

Whenwestudythethermalfieldandwegetlotsofdifferentanomalies,that’snormal. It’sverygoodtohavedifferentanomalies in different places, that arenotconnectedtoearthquakes.Butwhenan earthquake is happening, becausetheatmosphereisartificiallyheated,we

see some very strong signals in placeswhereusuallytheyshouldnotbe.

21stCentury:Soyoucorrect foref-fectsthatmightbeweatherinduced?

Ouzounov:Yes,we take theweatherout.We’vebeencriticizedatthismeetingthatwe’renotdoingverywell,butwe’redoingthis.We’retakingtheweatheroutby averaging the thermal field. What’shappening is that thesekindof signals,thesekindofanomalies,buildveryrap-idly.Ifsomeoneisdoingthiskindofre-searchfordifferentpurposes,he’sgoingtofilteroutthesedata,thisanomaly,asanerror,becausethere’snoexplanationforwhyit’shappening.

Wetakethisnotaserror,becauseweunderstand the physics. It’s happeningbecausewehaveanincreaseingasre-leaseduring thefinal stageofprepara-tion.Gasiscomingoutonaregularba-sis. Especially in Virginia, where theyhavesomanyuranium-typeofrocks,ra-dongasisveryhigh.

But,whatisdifferentisthatgasiscom-ingoutveryrapidly,andtheconcentra-tion isveryhigh,and thatmakesabigdifference.Sowhenyouhavemoregasconcentrated,thatimmediatelychangestheatmosphericchemistryoftheregion,andlatentheatisreleasedveryquickly.

Wesawthisafewhoursinad-vance.

Thegoodnewsis,whydoyou see this signal as verystrong? Because we don’thave too much backgroundseismicity in this region, sothebackgroundisclear.IfyouhadthesameeventinCalifor-nia,itwouldbeverydifficultto distinguish, because inCalifornia we have earth-quakesalmosteveryweek,ofabout3-magnitude.

In Virginia, that’s not thecase,sowehaveaveryclearbackgroundandit’sveryeasytodistinguishwhatisnormalvs. abnormal. So, this is thefirstgoodfinding.

Thesecondwas,it’sanin-traplateearthquake.Wedon’thave much experience withintraplate earthquakes. Usu-ally we do earthquakes inCalifornia or other places

wherewehavecollisionbetweendiffer-entplatformsonaregularbasis,andweexpect them,weknow theearthquakemighthappen.That’snotthecaseinVir-ginia.

There are similar earthquakes in theNewMadridzone,alsoinIndia,inPaki-stan,farawayfrommajorplatetectonicboundaries, and these earthquakes aredangerous;they’restrong,andscientistsstilldon’tknowtoomuchaboutthis.Sothat’swhywepresentedthiswork,whichshowsthatwestillcanseethermalsig-nalsbeforeintraplateearthquakes.That’sthe lesson learned from this presenta-tion.

21stCentury:Intermsofthisfieldofprecursorresearch,inordertomakeitfull fledged for real-time forecasting,butalsointermsofthefundamentalsci-ence involved, do you think the mostimportantworktobedonenowisinim-proved statistical methods to analyzethedata,or incomingupwithbettermodels of the physical processes in-volved?What’sneededtogoforward?

Ouzounov: Everything is important.There are two points, I can have twoopinionsabout thisquestion.Whatdowethinkneedstobedoneintheshort-term?Whatdowedonext?

THERMALVARIATIONSON

EASTCOAST,ASSEENFROMSATELLITE

Many meteorologicalsatellites,includingmostgeostationary satellites,have at least one ther-mal channel. This is amap of thermal varia-tions off the U.S. EastCoast,basedonmeteo-rologicaldata.Whenanearthquake is happen-ing, Ouzounov says,some very strong ther-malsignalswillbeseenin places where theyusuallyarenot,becausetheatmosphereisartifi-ciallyheated.

Source: GSFC/NASA


Ithinkintermsofthemodel,fromourperspective, we completed our work.Thereareafewthingsweneedtojustifyin terms of tuning the physics of someprocesses,butmostlikely,fromourper-spective,thedataweanalyzeareprettyconnectedwiththeconceptwehave[theLithosphere-Atmosphere-IonosphereCoupling,orLAICmodel,seeaccompa-nyingarticle—ed.].

Another question is, what do otherpeoplethinkaboutthismodel?Dotheyagreewiththatornot?I’mjustgivingourinsideopiniononthat.

Thesecondpoint:weneedtodemon-strate that this really works before theearthquake.Idon’tagreewithmanyoth-erkindsofcriticism,butIdoagreewiththiskindofcriticism:thatallofourworkishindcasting.Soweneedtospecificallyfocusonpre-eventanalysis.

Whatarewe trying todo rightnow?We’reabletogetconsentwithothersci-entists in the field, that we need to dojoint validation in the field before theearthquake, togetaknowledge, toun-derstand our science before the event,

andtoverifyifourphysicalunderstand-ingisreallyrelevanttotheongoingpro-cesses.Andthen,whentheeventhasal-ready happened, to step back and say,“Okay,whatwaswrong?”

That’snumberonerightnow.Numbertwo is toopen thiskindofwork to theseismologists,becausewedon’tseethisasa silverbullet. I think this studycanplayaveryimportantroleasacomple-mentarystudytoseismology.Ourvisionof this work in its practical meaning islike a hybrid system. When you haveseismological measurements which aredefinitelyeverywhereandyouaretryingtosetupasystemoranalysisofadiffer-entkindofprecursorwhichisnotseis-mic,oranypre-earthquakeprecursorintheareaofinterest,itwillbasicallyben-efit the seismicmeasurementsandalsogiveachancetoseismologiststoexplorealsodifferentphysics.

Nowwe’reexpandingourknowledgetoourcolleaguesinseismology,totrytoworkwiththem,totrytohavethemun-derstandthatthesignalsweareworkingonarepartofearthquakeprocesses,and

thattheymeasuredatawhichare pretty relevant to whatwedofromspace.Sobasi-callythesearethetwomajorgoalswe’refocussedonrightnow.

21st Century: Are therecertain typesofcrucialex-periments that you thinkcould be done and eitheraren’tbeingdoneforlackoffunding, or for some otherreason,thatgetatthephys-icsoftheprocess?Onethatcomes to mind that somepeoplehavedoneinmateri-alsscienceisrockcompres-sionstudies.

Ouzounov:A lot of theirmeasurements are very im-portantintermsofclarifyingthegeneralphysics.Buttherealworkismorecomplicat-edthanlaboratorymeasure-ments.We’reveryinterestedtodotherealmeasurements,activemeasurements in thereal environment. So whatwe’retryingtosetupnowinJapan, are measurements

thataregoingtoverifytheLAICmodel.AlongwithDr.Pulinets,wehadaverygoodreceptioninJapanforthelastyear,especially after theTohoku earthquake.What’shappeningnowisthatourJapa-nese friends from Hokkaido UniversityandChibaUniversity,aresettingupthetypesofmeasurementswerecommend-ed.Andthesemeasurementswillgivealong base of verification of the LAICmodel.Sothat’sthewaytogo.

I mean, that in the lab you can seemany things, but because of the scale,you’re probably not able to see otherthings.So,ourJapanesefriendsarenowsettingupmeasurements, ionmeasure-mentson theground,at the same timetheyarestudyingGPS-TEC(totalelectroncontent),andionosphericvariabilityoversouthernareas.

Ofcourse,wecannotputinstrumentseverywhere,buttheyknowtheseismici-tyinJapanverywell,sotheychosetwoareas.Andtherewillbecontinuousmea-surementsoverthesetwoareasprobablyforoneyear,fiveorsixindependentmea-surements,andthey’regoingtoprovide

LITHOSPHERE,ATMOSPHERE,IONOSPHERECOUPLINGMODELIllustrationofvariousphenomenarelatedtoearthquakeprediction.Source: “Electromagnetic Phenomena Related to Earthquake Prediction,” eds. M. Hayakawa and Y. Fujinawa (To-kyo: TERRA Scientific Publishing Company).


theresultsforus.Theideais,whethertheyaregoingto

seeindependentlywhatwehaveproject-ed tosee: in termsofdifferentkindsofprecursors, the time observation, howthese signals are related to the earth-quakeprocess;iftheysee,withoutearth-quakes, what is the significance of thesignals related to the magnitude, andwhatisthesignificanceofthesignalsre-latedtooverallseismicity.

WecandothatinJapanbecauseofthehighrateofseismicityinJapan,andbe-causeafter theTohokuearthquake theystartedtolookforotheroptions,notonlyseismicmeasurementsandseafloormea-surements;they’relookingforanyothermeasurements thatarecredible, they’reopentoverifysomenewmethodologies.Sothat’swhatweplantodoasanexper-iment.

21stCentury:WhatagencyintheU.S.orinternationallyshouldbeprimarilyre-sponsibleforearthquakeforecasting?Istheresomenewagencythatneedstobecreated?

Ouzounov: That’s the million-dollarquestion, for thesimplereasonthat theworldoperatesdifferentlythantheUnit-edStates.

Here’s the example: in Japan, earth-quakes are under the weather bureau,

andthat’saveryrightwaytodothat,inmypersonalopinion.TheweatherbureauinJapanactuallycollectsallseismicin-formation, all weather information, alloceandatainformation,becausetheyarebuilt as an organization responsible formonitoringthedata,anykindofdata.

InEuropeanGeologicalSurveys,EGS,we have separate agencies, and eachagencyhas—asyouknowverywell,theywanttosurvive—specialresponsibilities,andsometimeswehaveawarofagen-cies. So there are different interests,there’snoconsensus,they’reverypower-ful,andthey’rewell-funded.

NowinEurope,theyshowaverygoodexample.Theyhaveafinancialproblemnow,butthey’vebuiltasystemfornatu-ralhazardmonitoring.AftertheIcelandvolcanotheyfoundthateachcountryhasitsowndisastermanagement team,buttheycannot talk toeachother. So theystarttointegrateoverdifferentboundar-ies,overdifferentcountriesthesameum-brella,andearthquakesbecamepartofthat,alsofires,allnaturalhazards.Thismeansthatifthere’ssomethinghappen-ing,orresearchneededforthesekindsofhazards, they respond for all EuropeanUnionmembers.

In the United States, this kind of re-search related to earthquakes is undertheumbrellaoftheU.S.GeologicalSur-

vey. They have funding, theyhavepriority,andtheyhaveex-pertisedoingthat.Soeverythingwhichisgoingtobedevelopedbyusandotherteamsonsomelevelneedstobepresented,andapproved by the USGS.We’renotsuccessfulyetatdoingthat.

Basically,thepracticalappli-cation,theoutcomeofthiskindofresearch,needstobepresent-ed to USGS and be approved.We like to talk about global-scale problems, but it’s verycomplicated to coordinate thiskind of research on a globalscale.Becausewehaveaglobalproblem,butwehavenotglobalfunding.

We failed to propose some-thingtoJapanbecausetheJapa-nese people have a problemgetting funding for this kindofresearch.Andweproposedjointprojectsseveraltimesthisyear,buttheydidn’tgothrough.

Becausewedon’thavethesamesys-temoffunding,wealsohaveaproblemworking together. Basically, we’re notworkingtogether.We’reexchangingpa-pers,exchangingdata,butwedon’thaveajointteamwhichisactuallysolvingtheproblems because we always have aproblemin the funding,and thatcouldbe done by an international organiza-tion.

The United Nations, World Bank,UNESCO,ortheGlobalDisasterReduc-tionFund—theyhavethecapacitytoin-vestallovertheworldindifferentkindsof disasters, but the question is: We’retalkingaboutprevention,we’renottalk-ingaboutaftertheevent.

They’reverygoodaftertheevent.We’retalking inadvance, and that’sverydiffi-cult,becauseyouhavetoconvinceinter-nationalorganizations that something isgoingtohappen,sotheyneedtoreactpri-ortotheearthquake.Andthat’snotbeenverysuccessful,becausepeopleareusu-allyskepticalofthiskindofwork,andwehavenotdemonstrated,atleastonce,thatouralertmadeadifference.

Ifwehadachancetodothat,itwouldbemucheasier.Sowe’reworkingonthisonealert,oneevent, forwhichwecanactuallyprovideinformationinadvanceand bring more credibility on a globalscale.

Oyang Teng

SomeoftheparticipantsintheAmericanGeophysicalUnion’s2011Fallconferencesessionsonearthquakeprecursors,whichincludedscientistsfromtheUnitedStates,Russia,China,Ja-pan,Greece,andFrance.Oneofthegoalsoftheparticipantswastostrengtheninternationalcollaborationforreal-timeanalysisofimpendingearthquakethreatsinordertovalidatemeth-odsthathavebeenproveninhindcastsforvariousmedium-andlarge-scaleearthquakes.


Professors Seyia Uyeda andPaniyotisVarotsoshavebeencol-laboratingonearthquakepredic-tionforthreedecades.TheirjointpresentationattheAmericanGeo-physicalUnion(AGU)Fallconfer-enceinSanFranciscoonDec.6,2011wastitled,“EarthquakePre-dictioninJapanandNaturalTimeAnalysisofSeismicity.”

Dr.Uyeda,aprofessoremeritusattheUniversityofTokyo,isrec-ognizedasoneofthefoundersofthetheoryofplatetectonicsinthe1960s. In 2001, he became thefirstPresidentoftheInter-Associa-tion Working Group for Electro-magnetic Studies of Earthquakesand Volcanoes (EMSEV), withintheInternationalUnionofGeod-esyandGeophysics.

Dr.Varotsosisaphysicsprofes-sor at the University of Athens,andoneofthefoundersoftheVANmeth-od of earthquake prediction, based ontherecordingofSeismicElectricSignalsfrom the ground, and the utilization ofnaturaltimeanalysis.Thelatteristhesub-jectofarecentlypublishedbook,NaturalTime Analysis: The NewView of Time(Springer,2011).

Drs. Uyeda and Varotsos were inter-viewedjointlybyOyangTengandAlex-andra Peribikovsky on Dec. 7, 2011 attheAGUconference.

21stCentury:Please introduceyour-self, and tell us how you came to thefieldofearthquakeprediction.

Uyeda:IcomefromTokyo,andIhavelongbeenaprofessoratTokyoUniversi-ty.MymainjobwhenIwasyoungwasdeveloping plate tectonics and thesetypesoftheories.Towardstheendofmyactiveduty,Iswitchedovertotheprob-lemofshort-termearthquakeprediction,

bychance.Bychance,ImeanthatIcameacrosstheworkofProfessorVarotsosatthattime,the1980s.

His group had been developing itsownmethodofshort-termpredictionbymonitoring telluric currents in Greece.And Iwas somuch impressedby that,and themethodwas veryunpopular—earthquakepredictionisalwaysunpop-ular—soIswitchedovertothisinterest-ing subject, and I became unpopulartoo!

Varotsos:IcomefromtheUniversityofAthens.I’masolid-statephysicist,I’mnotaseismologist.Andinthe1970s,myexpertise was thermodynamics for de-fects in solids, in solid-state physics.And at that time, we concluded thatwhenyouincreasethestressonasolid,say, a rock, before the rupture, whenyou reach a critical stress, there is anemissionofaprecursorelectricalsignal,whichwetermaSeismicElectricSignal.Andthisisemittedafewdays,toafew

monthsbeforeanearthquake.From‘81untiltoday,wehavecontinu-

ouslyworkedon thismatter inGreece.WehavevariousstationsinGreece,at10sites,andwecontinuouslymeasuretheelectricfieldoftheEarth.Wecollectthedata,weanalyzethedata,andwhenweseethatthereisanimportantearthquake,thatmeans,ofmagnitude6orlarger,wepublicizeitwellinadvance.

Inparticular,totheArXiv,tothewellknownscientificwebsiteofCornellUni-versity [www.arxiv.org—ed.]. For in-stance,thetwoverystrongearthquakesin 2008 that occurred in Greece werebothpublicizedontheCornellUniversi-tywebsite,wellinadvance.Thepopula-tion of course knew about it after thispublication.

21st Century: Let me ask you both:Whatdoyouthinkistheessentialdiffer-enceinoutlookbetweenthosewhobe-lieve that earthquakesare forecastable

INTERVIEW:SEYIAUYEDAANDPANYIOTISVAROTSOS

Approaching the Critical Point in Earthquake Prediction

SeyiaUyedaandPanyiotisVarotsosattheAGUconference.


orpredictable,andthemajorityofseis-mologists who seem to categoricallydenythatpossibility?

Uyeda: It is rather obvious to every-body,or itshouldbe, thatwhatweareinterested in is short-term prediction;thenyouneedaprecursor,right?Withoutaprecursor,youcantellnothing—exceptifyouareafortunetellerorsomething,youcoulddothat,butit’snotscientific.Soyouneedaprecursor.

Bydefinition,aprecursortakesplacebeforetheearthquake,yousee?Andseis-mologists—seismology is a science ofearthquakesbasedonseismicrecordsre-corded by seismograms. And seismo-gramsonlyrecordearthquakes,notpre-cursors.Sothisisobvioustostartwith.

Therefore,seismologistsneversaytheycanpredict short-term.Theyarehonestinthatrespect.Buttheythinktheyaretheonly people who understand earth-quakes.That’sthetroublewiththewholething,inmyview.

This isvery trueall through the Japa-nese program of earthquake prediction.Thenameoftheprogramis“earthquakeprediction,”but they thinkprediction isnotpossible.Andyetthegovernmentpro-vides lots of budgeting and everything,becausetheycan’tsay,“Westopstudyingearthquakeprediction.”Thenthegovern-mentitselfwillbeveryunpopular.

Sotheseismologiststakeadvantageofthis situation, and they say we will dothatsometime,sometime,maybesome-time.Thathasbeenthecaseforover50years.ThissituationistrueinJapan,but

moreor less true formanyothercoun-tries,includingtheU.S.too,Ithink,andGreece.

21stCentury:Letmeaskyou,Profes-sorVarotsos,withyourbackgroundasasolidstatephysicist,isthereanissuein

termsofseismologistsbeingbiased against people whoaren’tinthefieldofseismol-ogy?Isthereamethodologi-calissueintermsofwhatar-easofphysicalprocessesareactuallybeingstudied?

Varotsos: From a purelyscientificpointofview,howthesolidisfracturedisamat-ter of solid-state physics.Purely scientific. From apurely scientific point ofview, it’s not a matter for aseismologist.This ismysci-entificresponsetoyourques-tion.Butirrespectiveofthat,Iwouldsaythefollowing:inorder to understand, “Whatis an earthquake?” which,practically,isaphasechange,

thatweapproachacriticalpoint,thisre-quirestheknowledgeofmodernphysics.AndwhatImeanisnewideasonstatisti-calphysics.

Forinstance,theanalysisweusenow,which you know is in the recent bookaboutnaturaltimeanalysis[NaturalTime

SEISMICELECTRICSIGNAL

A precursor electricalsignalisemittedbeforeanearthquake,causedby increased stress onrocksbeforearupture.Hereagraphcompiledby theVarotsos groupfromoneof their seis-micmeasuringstations,showing the seismicelectricsignalvariationwithtidalchanges.

EARTHQUAKEMAPFORGREECEAvideograbofarealtimemapofearthquakesinGreece.Thecolorsofthedotsindicatethetimeina24-hourperiod.Thesizeofthedotsindicatesthesizeoftheearthquake.


Analysis:TheNewViewofTime,Spring-er2011—ed.],itallowsustocounttheeventsevent-by-event,andyouwillun-derstand when the system, which is acomplex system, like the case of theEarth,approachesacriticalpoint.Thisre-quiresknowledgeofstatisticalphysics.

21st Century: Can you elaborate onwhatyoumeanforaprocesstoreachacriticalpoint and saya littlebit aboutwhatyoumeanbynatural time?Whatkindofanalysisisneededforthat?

Varotsos: Maybe Profes-sorUyedahasamoresim-pleway todescribe it.Wesuggested it in the begin-ningofthisdecade,butPro-fessorUyedahastheabilitytosayitinsimplerwords.

Uyeda:Well, thewholeideaofnaturaltime,isthattimeproceedswhensome-thing happens. If nothinghappens, nobody knowstimeisgoingon.Sotimeisspecifictotheprocess,yousee? So, in the case ofearthquakes, when theearthquake takes place,timeproceeds.Duringtheinter-earthquake period,nothing happens, there isno time increase. So wedisregard the interval oftime,andjustputtheminorder: this happens, thishappens,thishappens.

21stCentury:Whattypeof events do you order?Earthquakes?

Uyeda: Earthquakes. Small earth-quakes, for instance. And this can becomparedtothewaypeoplecanremem-berwhathappenedbyorderintheirlife.Iwasbornsometime,thenIbecameaboy,andwenttoschool,andsoforth,andgotmarried,andhadchildren.

But you don’t exactly remember thedates,ofcourse,unlessyoutakenotesorsomething.Youcanrememberwhathap-penedbywhatorder;sotheimportanceoftheeventandtheorderareimportantfactors.

That is the basic thoughtbehindthenaturaltimecon-cept.And for some reason,notveryeasytoexplain,bydoing this, one can specifysome parameters that de-scribetheapproachtocriti-cality.That iswhatVarotsoscallskappa1.Itsvaluecon-verges as natural time goeson;itconvergestoward0.07.That is the time when thesystemapproachesthecriti-cal point.That is the back-bone,sotospeak,ofhisnat-uraltimeanalysis.

21st Century:What are the physicalprocessesthatcharacterizethisspecificcriticalprocessintermsoftheEarthcur-rents?Tothebestofyourunderstanding,howdoesthisactuallyfunction?

Varotsos: You are asking about thegenerationoftheelectricsignals?

21stCentury:Right.Varotsos:Yousee,itisabsolutelysure

thatwhenyouhavearockthereareelec-tricdipolesinsidetherock.Noquestionabout it. But the electric dipoles, need

ELECTRICALSIGNALSMEASUREDATATHENSSTATIONSThisisasampleofelectricsignalsmeasuredFeb.7,2012,fromtheAthensstation,oneof10siteswheretheEarth’selectricalfieldiscontinuouslymeasured.Thechangesinthefieldareanalyzed,sothatwarningsofearthquakescanbegiveninadvance.

EARTHQUAKESANDNATURALTIME

Varotsosmodelstheprop-erties of earthquakes inwhathecallsnaturaltime,wheretheseismicmomentand energy emitted, forexample, are graphed to-getherinatimeevolution.Or,shownhere,theelec-trical pulses during anearthquakearegraphedinconventional time (red intheupperpanel)andthenin natural time (blue, inthelowerpanel).Thedura-tioninnaturaltimeisindi-catedontheverticalaxis.E=theelectricalfield.Byusingthenaturaltimeconcept, Varotsos et al.can describe when vari-ousearthquakeprecursorparameters approach acriticalpoint.

Source: P. Varotsos, “Is Time Continuous?,” in http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0605456v1.pdf

http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0605456v1.pdf


time tochange theirorientation.This iscalledrelaxationtime.Whenyouapplyastress,andthisstressgraduallyincreasesas timegoeson, the relaxation timeofthedipolemaydecrease.Andwhenthisrelaxation timebecomes very short, allthedipoles,alltogether,canchangetheorientation.Theycooperate, letmesay,andtheyachievethesameorientation.

Therefore,whenyouhaveacoopera-tiveorientation froma randomorienta-tion, this change in physics means theemissionofanelectriccurrent.Thisistheelectriccurrent thatwemeasurebeforeanearthquake.Andweknowverywellthatthisisafact,becauseithasbeenre-peatedly observed in lab experiments.There aremany scientists in theworld,whohavemeasuredit:Thereareelectricsignalsbeforetheruptureofasolid.Thereisnoquestionaboutit.

21st Century: How easy is it to seethoseelectricalsignals,ortofindthem?

Varotsos:It’snotsuchaneasyjob.I’lltellyouwhy.ThemostdifficultthingistofindthepropersitesonthesurfaceoftheEarthatwhichwecanrecordelectricsig-nals.It’snotaneasyjob,becausetheEarthisinhomogeneous,andonlyspecificsitesare sensitive to the recordingofelectricsignals.Andyouneedexperience.

For instance, in Greece, we tried 10sites,weinstalled10stations;wewaitedforaperiodoftime,sayoneortwoyears,and after accumulating enough experi-ence,wefindwhichofthemisthesensi-tivepoint.Andthenwechange.

21stCentury:Istheresomethingthat’scommon to the sensitive sites, whichcharacterizesthem?

Varotsos: Yes. Now we understandwhy.Andtheunderstandingisquitesim-ple. Because it happens that the earth-quakeshappeninfaults.Andnowadaysweknow that the faultsareconductivecorridors; it’s a conductive channel, aswesay.Therefore,whenthecurrentstartsfrom the focus, it follows this corridoranditarrivesatsomepointonthesurfaceoftheEarth.Youmustmeasureveryclosetotheoutcropofthesechannels.

21stCentury:Isitbasicallywherethecurrentleaksouttothesurface?

Varotsos: Exactly. Nowadays we un-derstand why there are sensitive pointsand insensitivepointson thesurfaceof

theEarth.Thisiswhyyouneedverycare-fulexperimentationtofindthesesites.

Uyeda: Actually, their field work in-volves a tremendous amount of work.Andnobodyelsehasfollowedthatway.WetriedtodothatinJapan,startingin1996,when for twoor three years,weputmanystationsinJapan;andsomeofthemwerefoundtobesensitive.Butgen-erallytheislandofJapanisfullofelectrictrains,whichisasourceofnoise,andtodealwiththisisabigfight,andverydif-ficultonthemainland.

Sotheonlyplaceofsuccesswasonfar-awayislands,andtheislandsaresensitivesometimes,whichisverygood,butveryfewpeoplelivethere,sopracticallythatdoesn’thelppeopletoomuch.Butphysi-cally,wefoundthesamethinghappensinJapanalso,andthatisimportantforus.

21stCentury:Wherethesignalleaksout, is thatwhere theepicenterof theearthquakeis?

Uyeda:Closetotheepicenter,notal-waysveryclose,butusuallyratherclose,ofcourse.Butsometimesifthechannelgoesthroughinastrangeway,itcango100km,forinstance.

Varotsos:But themethodallowsyoutodeterminetheepicenterandthemag-nitude.

21st Century: How do you get themagnitude?

Varotsos: From the amplitude of thesignal.Ifthesignalhasalargeramplitude,youcancalibrateyourstationandyoues-timatethemagnitude.Thisistheway.

21stCentury:Thereareawholerangeof precursory signals that differentgroups are studying, everything fromlow frequency electromagnetic radia-tion,tothethermalanomaliesthatsomeareconnectingtoradongasemission,toothers thatareonlynowbeing lookedat.Are theseotherprecursors thatarebeingmeasuredrelateddirectly to thisground current? What’s the best ap-proachintermsofallthesedifferentpa-rameters,forprecursoranalysis?

Varotsos:Thecurrentwearemeasur-ing, as I said before, may be recordedtwomonthsbefore,forinstance.Andaf-ter the emission of the current, as thetimegoeson,andyouapproachthecriti-calpoint,thatmeansafewdaysoroneweekbeforethemainevent,howdowe

understandit?Weunderstanditfromnat-uraltimeanalysis.

Wehavethewaytounderstandwhenweapproachthetime[ofcriticality].Butatthattimewhenyouapproachthecriti-cal point, maybe other phenomena, asyousaidbefore,mayalsooccur.Nearthecriticalpoint,thereisaphraseinphysics,whenwesaythatlong-rangecorrelationsalwaysappear.Andthereforemaybelightsmayappear,orradongas,forinstance.

21stCentury:Howlongisthiscriticalpointusually?Doesitvarydependingonthemagnitudeoftheearthquake?

Varotsos:No,empiricallywehaveob-served,thatfromthetimeweseeacondi-tionasProfessorUyedasaidtobevalid,themainshockoccurswithinafewdaysuptooneweek.Thisistheaccuracywenowhaveforthepredictionofthetime.

Uyeda:Thatisforhismethod,ofcourse.You’realsoaskingaboutothermethods,right?Allotherfrequencyproblems,theyhave their own specific mechanism,slightlydifferent.Sotheirleadtimebeforethemainshockmaydiffer.Butsometimestheyarecommon.Soitvaries,ofcourse.Andtechnically,theobservationsofelec-tromagneticwavesforinstance,aremucheasier than theVAN method.TheVANmethod,asVarotsosexplained,isaverydifficultoperation.Lotsofworkisneed-ed,tremendouswork,really.

21stCentury:Ismostofthedifficultyingettingthemeasurements?

Uyeda:Yes.Andfinding thesensitivesites.Butfortheradiomeasurements,allyouneedareantennas,andyoucanputthemanywhere.It’smucheasier,soev-erybody jumps on that; that’s why it’sverypopularnow.

As to your question of mechanism:these mechanisms are not very wellknown, I must say.... People like Puli-nets,theyallhavetheirownhypotheses,gatheringallthekindsofdata,andsomemoreor less reasonable-looking theory,yes. So they may be right, but it’s notcompletelysure.Butthephenomenaarewithoutdoubt,Ithink.Theydoexist.

21stCentury:Whatseemsclearisthatvery fewpeopleunderstandwhatdoesactually occur when you look at anearthquake.You’renotjustlookingataneventinitself.Itseemsalotoftheworkofwhattheprecursorsarebasedon,is


thatyou’relookingatsomethingthatisoccurringoverseveralmonths,andit’snotjustaboutfaultlinesrupturing,butyouhavevariousothergases,ionospherechanges, perhaps even solar changesthatareoccurringatthesametime:youhaveawholeentiresystem.Sotherealquestionis,whatisthisprocess?Whatistheentireprocessthattooursensessim-plyappearsasanearthquake?

Varotsos:Noquestion,thewholepro-cessisverycomplex.Andyouknow,letmeexplainthatinphysicsduringthelasttwodecades,wehaveanewbranchinphysics:thephysicsofcomplexsystems.Itisinordertounderstandthesecomplexphenomena.Andthephysicsofcomplexsystems, brings into light a lot of newlawswhichwereunknownpreviously.

Thatmeansyouneedtediousstudytoseeafewmonthsbeforeanearthquakewhatisgoingon.Butinordertounder-stand it, you need to follow carefullywhich physical laws you should apply.Thisisnotaneasyjob.

Forinstance,youshouldseeiftheearth-quakes, the small shocks thatoccur, arecorrelatedornot.This is a verymodernpart of statistical physics. And what wepresented yesterday in our joint paper[EarthquakePredictioninJapanandNatu-ralTimeAnalysisofSeismicity—ed.],wehave seen that before theTohoku cata-

strophicearthquake.Ourresultwas,fromarandomorientation,exactlythispoint:toseehow the small eventsbefore theTo-hokuearthquakegaveanobviousincreaseafewweeksbeforethemainevent.

Butthisneedsacarefulphysicalstudybetweenallthecorrelationsbetweenthesmallshocks.It’snotsoeasy.Thisisnotaseismologicalstudy.Thisisastudywithinthe frame of modern physics. It’s not aworkforseismologists.

Uyeda:Seismicwavesareveryusefulfor sounding the internal structure andinternal process, of the Earth. It’s veryuseful.Butasfarastheseismogenicpro-cessisconcerned,theyonlystudyhowstress is applied or exerted, and whatprocess causes plate pushing.This is amatterofplatetectonics,moreorless.

Anyway,afterthebigearthquake,mostof the Japanese seismologistswereverydepressed.Theycouldnoteventhinkofthis kindof thing.But it’snot their job.Nobodyisexpectingthemtobeabletopredictthatamagnitude9willtakeplace,becauseinJapanesehistoryithasneverhappened,accordingtotheseismologicalrecords.So theydon’thave tobesode-pressed.They’reokay.Butit’snottheirjob.

Theother thing is, precursors donotnecessarily cause the earthquake. Theonly thing is that theyoccurbefore theearthquake;nobodyactuallythinksthat

telluric currents cause earthquakes, sothat’swhyseismologistsarenotinterest-ed—ithasnothingtodowiththestressaccumulation with which they’re inter-ested.It’sjustcurrentflows.

Andthatisoneaspectwhyseismolo-gistsarenotinterestedinus.It’sverynat-ural:it’soutoftheirfield.Theyareinter-ested in how stress accumulates tobecomehigh,andsoforth.Manyoftheprecursorshavenothingtodowiththis.Maybeit’saby-productofthesamepro-cess—earthquakes and precursors, thewholeprocess.

21stCentury:Intermsofinternationalpolicy, it seems like this type of workneedsinternationalcollaboration.Earth-quakes don’t respect national boundar-ies.Wheredoyouthinkweneedtogointermsofcollaborationinadvancingthiswork,asamatterofinternationalpolicy,nationalsecurity,andalsobasicscience?

Uyeda:Asfarasearthquakesarecon-cerned, and geophysics is concerned,there is an international organizationcalledIUGG,InternationalUnionofGe-odesyandGeophysics;it’sthelargestsci-encegrouporganization.Wenowhaveaworking group called EMSEV, Electro-magneticStudiesofEarthquakesandVol-canism,andthiswasestablished10yearsago.Iwasoneofthefounders.

Thisisessentiallyaninternational,in-terdisciplinary working group. Becausethosewhoareactiveinthistypeofworkaregenerallynotseismologists.Theycanbeatmosphericphysicists,purelysolid-state physicists, and so forth, and theirlanguageisdifferent,theycannottalktoeachother.Somethingthatisverycom-monsense toonediscipline, isentirelyunknownintheothers.

Butthecommonpointis,weareinter-ested in precursors so we needed thistypeoforganization,andthisorganiza-tionhasbeenveryactive,very,veryac-tive.Sothatisonething.

Varotsos: International collaborationisveryimportant.Andfromourpointofview,wehaveaveryclosecollaborationwiththegroupofProfessorUyedainJa-pan.Wehaveanexchangeofdata,ofinformation,andsoon,everyday.Andwesaidtodayinthismeeting,wehavethiscollaborationonadailybasis.Thisisofkeyimportanceforsuchamatter.Weallmustbeunited.Wemustinten-sifyourefforts.

FORESHOCKSANDAFTERSHOCKSINTOHOKUEARTHQUAKE,2011Theforeshocksareshowningreen,andthemainshockandaftershocksareinred. Uyeda andVarotsos note that there was an obvious increase in smallshocksbeforetheTohokuearthquake.Source: USGS


MITOCHONDRIAINYEASTCELLMargulis viewedmitochondria,whichgenerate the energy for cellmetabolism, as descended from free-roaming parasitoid bacteria.Here,anelectronmicrographofayeastcell,showingmitochondria(smallblackbodies).Thearrowpointstoamitochondrionthatisap-parentlydividing.Source: A.W. Linnane, Monash University, Australia, in Lynn Margulis, Early Life (Boston: Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Inc., 1984), p. 76

EXAMPLEOFAPROTOCTIST,WHICHEVOLVEDFROMBACTERIALSYMBIOSISTheprotoctistMixotrichaparadoxa.Protoc-tists evolved from bacterial symbiosis, andareneitherplantnoranimal,Margulissaid.This is an example of an individual com-posedofatleastfivekindsoforganisms.Source: Lynn Margulis, Symbiotic Planet: A New View of Evolution (New York: Basic Books, 1998), p. 63.

Bestknownforwhatisnowcalleden-dosymbiosisorendosymbiotictheo-

ry,American geoscientist and biologistLynn Margulis played a critical role inconvincing Western science that thechloroplastsofeukaryoticcellswerede-scendedfromoncefree-livingphotosyn-thetic bacteria, and that mitochondriaweredescendedfromfree-roamingpara-sitoidbacteria.Marguliswasnotthefirst

to propose what would become hertrademarktheory,butfromnowon,thehistoryofendosymbiosistheorywillbedivided into a pre-Margulis phase, aMargulis phase, and a post-Margulisphase.

Margulisservedasmidwifetoamuchbroaderconcept,aconceptthattheRus-sian biologist Konstantin S. Merezh-kovsky(1855-1921)calledsymbiogene-sis. Symbiogenesis is defined as theoriginationofneworganismsthroughthesymbioticassociationandunificationoftwoormorespecies.

TheWesternreceptionofsymbiogen-esishadalonggestationandadifficultbirth. It was Lynn Margulis who finally

convincedusthatendosymbiosiswasre-quiredtounderstandtheconstitutionofthe eukaryotic cell. Margulis strived touncoverthefullimplicationsofsymbio-genesistheory,doingsowithanicono-clasticfervor.

ShortlyaftershearrivedattheUniver-sityofMassachusetts,Amherstin1988,sheandIbegantoworkcloselyonsub-jectsofsharedinterest,suchastheEdia-caranfossilrecordandearlyRussianre-

MarkMcMenaminisaprofessorofge-ology at Mount Holyoke College in theDepartmentofGeologyandGeography.Hisresearchisprimarilyfocussedonpale-ontology,particularlytheEdiacaranbiota.

IN MEMORIAM

LYNNMARGULIS(1938-2011)

PioneeringAmericanBiologistandGeoscientistbyMarkA.S.McMenamin

University of Massachusetts

INMEMORIAM

21stCenturyScience&Technology Winter2011-2012 27INMEMORIAM

search. In one of our first discussionsessionsattheuniversity,wediscoveredamutualinterestintheworkofthegreatRussian biogeochemistVladimir I.Ver-nadsky(1863-1945).

Vernadsky was virtually unknownamong our Western colleagues at thetime.Wedevelopedthisinteresttogetherfor over 20 years, collaborating on thefirstfullEnglishtranslationofVernadsky’sgreat work The Biosphere.1 The workcontinuestothisday,andinmyfinalproj-ectwithLynn,onlyafewmonthsbeforeherdeath,IuncoveredintheVernadskyarchives atColumbiaUniversity, an ex-changeoflettersbetweenVernadsky’ssonGeorge Vernadsky and George EvelynHutchinson (1903-1991),discussing thepreparation ofVladimirVernadsky’s re-searchforawideraudience.Margulisex-presseddelightwiththisfindinoneofmylastcommunicationswithher.

Neo-DarwinismIsDeadOnedaywhilewalkingtogetheracross

the Amherst College campus, Margulis

1. The Biosphere, Vladimir Vernadsky (New York: Copernicus, 1998) English translation ed. Mark A.S. McMenamin.

turned to me and announcedthatNeo-Darwinismwasdeadandthat,asaresult,weneededan entirely new evolutionaryparadigm.Atthetime,Iwasun-awareofanycrediblechallengeto the prevailing evolutionarymodel. Lynn proceeded to ex-plainhowthestepwisenaturalselectionrequiredbytheNeo-Darwinian Modern Synthesishad never actually been dem-onstratedinthevastmajorityofcases.

Theconceptthatmostmajorevolutionarychangesoccurredbyslowaccumulationofmuta-tions,lackeddecisivescientificsupport.Rather,allknowncas-esofwhatmightbecalledspe-ciation in the laboratory in-volved sudden reproductiveisolationviagenital infections,renderingtheinfectedindividu-alsabletointerbreedonlywithconspecifics that had alreadycontracted the same venerealdisease.

For Margulis, this was com-pelling evidence that symbio-

genesiswasnotonlyresponsibleforthemakeupoftheeukaryoticcell,butthatitwasalsoresponsibleforvirtuallyallspe-ciationevents inanimals,plants, fungi,and protists. In other words, symbiosisequatestoevolutionarytransformationatboththemacroevolutionary(newmajorcell types) and microevolutionary (newspecies)levels.

The great Russian symbiogeneticistAndrey S. Famintsyn (1835-1918) hadarrivedatasimilarconclusionacenturybefore, noting that the major steps inevolutionarenotintheleastelucidatedby Darwin, and remain, as before, anunresolved question. Margulis framedthisasanastonishingscientificinsight,and I have since come to realize thatonceagainshewasonthetrailofsome-thingimportant,amajoradvanceinsci-ence thatwouldbe fully revealedonlyaftermuchargumentanddebate,finallyleading to acceptanceby the scientificcommunity.

By 1989, Margulis was in full swingwith this aspect of her research, spear-heading conferences and sponsoringbook projects with the aim of showingthatvirtuallyallevolutionaryinnovationwas the result of symbiogenesis. WemightevensaythatitwasLynnMargulis,not Charles Darwin, who actually ex-plained the mechanics of the origin ofspecies.

AContagiousEnthusiasmMargulis’senthusiasmformovingsci-

ence forward was contagious, and in-spiredbyendosymbiosistheory,ground-breaking Russian research, and theLovelock-Margulis articulation of theGaiahypothesis,mywife,Dianna,andIproceededtoconsiderthebiosphereasawholefromasymbiogenesisperspec-tive.Ourprimarygoalwas toenhanceMount Holyoke College’s introductorygeologycourse,HistoryofLife(Geology102).

I wanted, at long last, to providemy students with anadequate explanationforhowandwhyvascu-lar land plants trans-formeddrylandsurfaceinto undulating forest.Our solution, the ideathat cooperation amongfungi, vascular plants,andotherorganismsinavast symbiotic net-work—a geophysiologi-calentitywecalledHy-persea, with the abilitytoinduceupwardnutri-ent flow (hypermarineupwelling)—was pub-lishedbyColumbiaUni-versity Press in 1994 asHypersea:LifeonLand.


MargulislookingatSpirochaetaperfilievia,asul-fide-requiring round body-forming spirochetebacteria,providedbyherRussiancolleague,Ga-linaDubinina,whostudiedtheorganismfor40years.


MargulisanswersquestionsfromstudentsonafieldtriptoHarvardForest,inPetersham,Mass.,duringacourseonEnvironmentalEvolution.

28 Winter2011-2012 21stCenturyScience&Technology INMEMORIAM

Inherforewordtothebook(shealsotook the splendid cover photomicro-graph),MargulisannouncedthatHyper-sea blended Vernadskian biosphericthinking andLovelockianGaian spatial“connectedness” to allow us to “lookwide-eyed upon a land surface whosehistorywe thoughtweunderstood.Re-turning to where we stood before, en-lightenedbyacenturyofbiologicalandpaleontologicalinsight,wenowseethisplaceforthefirsttime.”

HerforewordencapsulatestheclassicLynnMargulisapproachtoappreciatingthefullsymbiogeneticgloryofthenatu-ralworld.

Dueat least inpart toherdifficultieswiththeNeo-Darwiniansynthesis,Mar-gulisastonishedmanyofhercolleaguesbychangingherdepartmentalaffiliationfrombiologytogeosciences.Thismadegoodsense,forMargulishadcometoad-mirehowthegeosciencessuperintendarichtemporaldatasetthatbiologiststendtoneglect.

Forexample,thegreatAmericangeol-ogistPrestonClouddeterminedthattheCambrian Explosion must represent atrulymassivecaseofpunctuatedevolu-tion.Cloudarguedthatthefilterfeedingapparatus (lophophore) of abrachiopod couldn’t functionproperlyasabrachiopodfilter-ing loopwithoutacompletelybivalveshell.

Thefirstbrachiopods in thefossil record are fully formedbivalvefilterfeeders.Thisdoesnotmeanthattherewerenoin-termediate stages. However,thereisnoevidencethatearlybrachiopodsdevelopedbythecountlessgenerationsofgradu-al, incremental change de-mandedbyconventionalNeo-Darwiniantheory.

Margulis took Cloud’s in-sightastepfurther,urgingmetoconsiderthepossibilitythatthe relatively sudden appear-ance at theCambrianbound-aryofnumerousdifferenttypesofskeletons,composedofdif-ferent types of biominerals,might very well represent yetanothercaseofsymbiogenesis.I was initially skeptical, butsure enough, the shell struc-

ture of an Early Cambrian stem group(mickwitziid brachiopods) proved tobepackedwithspherulesofhydroxy-apatite. These tiny spherules mightbestbeinterpretedasthepermineral-

izedfossilremainsofcoccoidsymbi-oticmicrobes.

The importance of symbiosis in theacquisition of early animal shells re-mains an unsettled question, but hereagain,LynnMargulismaybeontherighttrack.

TheOxygenRevolutionPreston Cloud is also known for his

discoveryoftheOxygenRevolution,an-nouncingthediscoveryatthesametimethatMarguliswasabout topublishherendosymbiosis research. The OxygenRevolution occurred approximately 2billion years ago, when diatomic oxy-gengasreleasedbyphotosynthesis(Pho-tosystem II)overwhelmedEarth’s reser-voirsofnativeandferrousiron,therebyallowing oxygen to accumulate in theoceansandatmosphereandthuscom-pletelyalteringthegeochemistryoftheplanet.

Russianscientistsarechagrinedatthefact that Cloud, apparently unfamiliarwithVernadsky’swork,wasabletolinktheProterozoicbanded iron formationsto theconceptofananoxicearlyEarthatmosphere.

Discoveryof theOxygenRevolutionby all rights should have gone to the

Courtesy of Mark McMenamin

A1975photoofvisitingandresidentscientistsattheCleanLab(nowCloudLab),attheUni-versityofCaliforniaatSantaBarbara.LynnMargulisisthirdfromrightinthefrontrow.PrestonCloudisfirstfromleft;StanleyAwramikisfirstfromright;and,intherearrow,ElsoBarghoornisthirdfromright.

BU Photography

MargulisatBostonUniversityin1982.


Russians,butinthispartic-ularcase,thehonorswentto an American. This dis-covery,alongwiththeplatetectonic revolution andsymbiogenesistheory,con-stituted one of the greatAmericangeosciencecon-tributionsofthe20thCen-tury.Marguliswasverymuchfrontandcenteramongthegiants in this amazinglyfruitful episode of Ameri-can geoscience achieve-ment.

In a 1975 photographfrom the Clean Lab (nowCloudLab),attheUniversi-tyofCalifornia, SantaBar-bara,LynnMargulisappearsinthemiddle,beaminglikeaschoolgirl,withPrestonCloud toher far rightandStanleyAwramik (my graduate advisor)to her far left. Behind Margulis in thephotograph stands Elso Barghoorn, theAmherstCollege/HarvardUniversitypro-fessor of whom Margulis always spokewithgreatadmiration.

Barghoorn was graduate advisor andmentor to many of the scientists (andtheir students) who conducted most ofthe best and most original research onearlylifeonEarth,inwhatwemaynowrefertoastheGoldenAgeofAmericanGeoscience(ca.1965-2000).

Inthisgoldeneraoffieldandlabora-toryresearch,Americanscollectedlunarrocksamples(theClean/CloudLabwasoriginallydesignedtoreceivetheApollomission Moon rocks), confirmed platetectonic theory, discovered the oldestfossils known, named the superconti-nent Rodinia (using the Russian lan-guagerootwordforhomelandtohonorthe Russian geoscience contributions),linked the decline of stromatolites tothe emergence of animals, discoveredtheoldest fossilsof complex life, con-firmedendosymbiotictheory,andiden-tified the Oxygen Revolution, amongmany other groundbreaking scientificadvances.

Itmaybesometimebeforetheworldwitnessesacomparableseriesofdiscov-eries in the Earth sciences.The headyexcitementofdiscoveryafterdiscoverywasawondertobehold.Iwillneverfor-gettheexcitement,inpre-digitalgradu-

ate school as StanAwramik’s researchassistant,ofdevelopingthefirstphoto-graphic imagesofwhatmayverywellbe the world’s oldest microfossils,watching their images slowly emerge(deprofundus)ontheglossyprintphotopaper in the faint red safe light of thedarkroom.

NorwillIeverforgettheexcitementofflipping over a slab of siltstone on amountainsideslopeinSonora,Mexico,anddiscoveringtheearliestevidenceforcomplexlifeontheEarth.

ChampionoftheUnorthodoxProbablyduetothelonglistofrejec-

tions she accumulated while trying topromoteendosymbiosistheoryearlyinher career, Lynn Margulis was alwaysready to champion an intriguing newconceptorapotentially fruitful (ifun-orthodox)newapproach.This inevi-tably led her to advocate ideas thatmany of her less adventuresome col-leagueswouldconsider fringe scienceor worse, such as her endorsement ofAIDS“denialism”(Margulisheldami-crobial-consortial viewof the etiologyofAIDS).

SuchaberrationsmustbeseeninthecontextoftheclassicLynnMargulisap-proachtoresearch,anapproachalwaysready to challenge the scientific estab-lishment,alwaysreadytoconsideranewdirection,andalwaysreadytoadvancethescience.

I attribute this tendency toheracutesensethatscienceisaneternallyunfin-ishedproject,withthenextbigadvance

just around the corner. Shecombined this with an in-tensedesiretocommunicateasenseofpossibilityanddis-coverytoherstudents.

As part of scrutiny of yetanother unorthodox idea,Margulissetupatransatlan-ticSkypeinterviewwiththegreatGermanpaleontologistAdolf “Dolf” Seilacher, ask-inghimtodiscusswithstu-dents his ideas about thenon-animal nature of theEdiacaran fossils.This inter-view,deliveredinSeilacher’srich Teutonic baritone, wasonlyoneofamarvelousse-ries of recorded interviewsthatMarguliscollectedfrom

hervastnetworkofcolleagues.Seilacher’s Skype interview has be-

comeamainstayofmypopularfirstyearseminarcourseGeology115:EmergenceofAnimals.Marguliswasafavoriteguestlecturer in my classes, and she will begreatlymissed.

INMEMORIAM


MargulisexporingmicrobialitesattheMoroccanfieldsitestudiedbyoneofhergraduatestudents.

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Evidence-basedmedicine is thebasisforclinicalguidelinesandalgorithms

thatisnowconsideredastandardrulingformedicalpractice.The“evidence”re-ferstotheresultsoflarge,double-blind,randomizedclinicaltrials.Thatwhichisevidencedisthecausaleffectpredictedfor any action taken by the physician,andthealgorithmsreflectthis:Ifthephy-siciandoesthis,thenhe/shecausesthat.Fromtheprobablities,theclaimisthatofnumericcertaintyofprediction.

Thisevidenceisintheformofproba-bilitiescalculatedforthefindingsofclin-icaltrials,andtheevidenceclaimsscien-tific and numeric certainty in theprobabilities. Because thenumeric cer-tainty applies to the group of patientsstudied,itisremovedfromtheindividualpatient’scase.

Thecurrentpopularunderstandingofscienceisthatitdefinescausation.Prob-ability theory is the reigning theory ofcausation, and thus method of causalproblem-solving,andmedicinehasad-opted thismethod for clinical practice.Thequestionaskedis,“Whatistheprob-ability that the patient has this or that,andwhatisprobabilityofagivenresultofphysicianaction?”

Whydidmedicineadoptprobabilitiesasitsguidefordiagnosisandtreatment?Whydidascientific theoryovertake,or

gainaplacenear-equaltotheHippocrat-icOathastheguideforclinicaldecision?

Underlyingthismethodofsolutionby

probabilities is something more funda-mental.Science in this formprovidesadispassionatenumeric,unbiasedauthor-itytoanydecision.Theunbiasednatureoftheprobabilityasanauthoritysatisfiestheviewthattruthforanyactioncannotbeknownperfectly.Thatis,thebeliefthatthephysiciancannoteverknowhowtosolveanyproblemwithoutusingproba-bilities.This is because the context fortruthisauniverseofChance.

Thus,saidinadifferentway,probabil-ityisatheorylimitedtotheuncertaintyof causation in a field of Chance. So,therefore, the fundamental underlyingmotiveofevidence-basedmedicineistosatisfythebeliefthatnophysicianknowswhat he/she is doing, unless actingthroughprobabilitiesofnumericcertain-ty. Ifactingwithinahighprobability,afailuretocurediveststhephysicianofre-sponsibilityfortheoutcome,whichthenisduetochance—somethingoutsidetheprobability.

Ifactingwithintheprobability,thein-

BIOLOGY & MEDICINE

Evidence-BasedMedicine:TreatingbyChance

byCathyM.Helgason,M.D.

THESTATISTICALMETHODOFTREATMENTAsampletablefromtheCentreforEvidence-BasedMedicineatOxfordUni-versity,instructingphysiciansonusingrelevantinformationfromrandomizedcontrolledtrials.Theacronymsinthe“HowtoCalculate”columnareCERforControlEventRate,EERfortheExperimentalEventRate,andARRforabsoluteriskreduction.Here,statistics,notcreativity,rules.

BIOLOGY&MEDICINE


surancecompanyorotherinterestedpar-ties potentially predict the outcome ofmillionsofpatients.

Clothedinadispassionatebutnumeri-callycertainand scientificapproach tothe patient, evidence-based decisionnow competes with the HippocraticOath.Medicalethicistsclaimthat“todonoharm”meanstofollowtheguidelinesofevidence-basedmedicine.Thesephy-sicianornon-physicianethicistshavenotgivenuptheHippocraticOathperse,buthave folded evidence-based medicineintoitsterritory.

ServingtheMedicalOligarchyThisauthorwaswitnesstothehistory

ofhowthiscametobe.Evidence-basedmedicinecameabout so that a typeofmedicalelitewithinacademia—elitebe-causetheyalsoclaimthetitleofscien-

tist—adopted the theory or method ofdeterminingcausationforthepurposeofprediction.Predictioncarriestheaweofthe crystal ball for the patient, the cer-taintyofanoutcomeofagamblefortheinsurancecompany,andtheauthorityofnumeracy.

Becauseallphysiciansdonotbelongtothegroupofphysician-scientists,thelatter has become a type of oligarchy,which uses evidence-based medicinetocontrolandjudgethepractice,certi-fication,andcontinuedlicensingofallphysicians.Those guidelines andalgo-rithmswrittenbythecadreofelitesci-entist-physicians make certain that theinfluenceoftheindividualphysicianisminimized,byrestrictinghis/heractivityordecisions to thoseoptionsprovidedby the probabilities of outcome deter-

mined from the large, double-blind,randomizedtrials.

These are physicians with a certainoutlookonhumaningenuityandcreativ-ity.Notonlydotheybelievethatcreativ-ity has no place in medicine, but theycarryhatredanddisdainforit,becauseintheirlimitedview,itisnot“scientific.”

KillingforChance?Butwhatdrivestheso-passionatepush

for evidence-based medicine? Passionsuggestsapurpose.Whatdrivesthephy-sicianwhowoulddenyacancerpatientorotherwiseterminallyillpatientatreat-ment which might work but has a lowprobabilityofworking, anddoes soal-thoughthepatientisrequestingthatther-apy?WhoiswillingtokillforChance?

InaUniverseofconstantlychangingstates of increased energy flux density,

METABOLICPATHWAYS:WHYSTATISTICALMODELINGFAILSDepictedherearethedistinctmetabolicpathwaysusedbycellstotransferenergy.This,notchance,istheinteractiveanddynamicphysiologycomparingtheclinicalcontextofmedicalexpectationandforecast.

BIOLOGY&MEDICINE


the physician must constantly improvethequalityofdiagnosisandtreatmentinorder to improve the patient contextwithin which disease occurs. This re-quiresanunderstandingthatitiswithinthe context of living physiology, ratherthan Chance, that the principles andlawsoflifedeterminetheresultsofanychosenaction.

To improve the quality ofmedicine, creativity is neces-sary on the part of the physi-cian.Creativityalwaysinvolvestheintroductionofanewidea,anewinterventionto thepro-cess.Thatinterventionmaybeanewwayofputting togetherthefacts,otherthanthatframe-workprovidedbyprobabilities,or a new thought object—forexample,anewdrug,newdi-agnostic technique,newdiag-nosis,oratreatmentusedinaninnovativeandexpectedlysuc-cessfulway.Anewmethodofproblemsolving.

This requires that the physi-cian understand how his/heraction will change the condi-tionof thepatient.Thisunder-standingisanexpectation,andexpectations lead to forecast.Neither expectation nor fore-cast carry numeric certainty.

Nonetheless,progressatthebedsidede-mands an analysis of expectation andproductofforecastonthepartofthephy-sician

CreativityIsNotAllowedButevidence-basedmedicine iscon-

cerned with prediction. Predictions areprobabilities,andarecalculatedby the

method of probability-based statistics.No additional factors other than thoselaidoutforthepurposeofthecalculationofaprobabilityagainsttheemptyback-groundofChanceareallowed toentertheequation.Noadditionalvariablesareeverallowed toenter thefinalcalcula-tionoftheprobability.Thus,creativityisnotallowedtoenterthediagnosticortreatmentalgorithm.

Insteadofworkingwithinthecontextof Chance, the physician understandsthatthepatient’scondition,whilemea-suredbydiscreteobservations,isreallythatofacontinuumofchangingphysi-ologicalstate.Thatstatecastsitsshad-ow in the formofmeasuredvariables.Theprinciplesofthischangingphysiol-ogymustbetackledandmasteredinor-dertoforecasttheeffectofaninterven-tion.

Becausethephysiologicstateiscon-stantlychanging,newinterventionsarealwaysrequiredtogainadesiredeffect.Without creativity on the part of thephysician,thiscannotbeachieved.Evi-dence-basedmedicineoutlawsthiscre-ativity.As a scientificmodel formedi-cine,itguaranteesaclosedsystemofnoprogress.

Theauthor’sarticle“TheEvilIntentionof Evidence-Based Medicine” can befoundhere.

Detail from“TheDoctor,”an1891paintingbySamuelLukeFildes(1843-1927).Evidence-basedmedicineintendstoeliminatethethinkingprocessdepictedhere.

gov.mt

DoctorstaketheHippocraticOath,withitsmessagethatphysiciansshould“donoharm.”Thestatisticiansofthelargedouble-blindrandomizedclinicaltrialshavenottakentheHippocraticOath.

BIOLOGY&MEDICINE

http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2009/Evidence_Based_Med.pdf


Dr.AkiraTokuhiroisaprofessorofme-chanicalandnuclearengineeringattheUniversityofIdaho.HewasinterviewedattheAmericanNuclearSociety,Wash-ington,D.C.meeting,Nov.21,2011,byMarjorieMazelHecht.

Tokuhiro,alongwithWadeAllison,aprofessoremeritusofphysicsatOxfordUniversity, visited Japan in September2011, toholdpublic forumsandmeet-ingsonradiationandreason,asopposedtothescarestories.TheywerejoinedbyDavidWagner,aTokyo-basedriskcom-municationspecialist.TokuhiroandAlli-son visited Fukushima to learn, and todiscuss post-accident contaminationwithlocalresidents.

Thethreearepursuingthequestionofchanging the international standards ofradiationprotection,whicharenowarbi-trarilylow,basedonthefalseLinearNo-Threshold(LNT)thesisthatallradiationisdangerous.

21stCentury:WhatinspiredyoutogotoJapan,topromote“radiationandreason”?

Tokuhiro: Being Tokyo-bornandinthenuclearprofession,Iwantedtocontributetothere-coveryeffortandcrisismanage-menteffort.IjustfeltthatIneed-edtodosomethingtohelp.

Originally I had an idea inmind—soundsalittlebitnega-tive—but I wanted to have aninternationalconferenceinFu-kushimacalled“theplightcon-ference.” That was to reallybring attention to the victimsand theevacuees.Not thenu-clearaccident,becausethatjustgottoobig.

It’s been hard to organizethat,butmaybenextyear.

That’showitstarted,throughdiscussions on nuclear safety,questionsofwhat’sthemostre-centnews,keepingtrackofthetechnicalside.

21stCentury:Thatwasabigjob.Tokuhiro:Yes,thatwasmy“hook.”So

werealizedatsomepointthatputtingona conference is not so easy.The novelthing about the conference is that weweregoingtogetabout500journaliststocometoJapan,andinviteonlyevacueesand victims to the conference to bringoutthehumansideofthestory.Wedidn’twantanyanti-nuclearpeople,wedidn’twant nuclear vendors, we didn’t wantutilities.Butwehadtowhittleitdowntojust“radiationandreason.”

Radiation and Reason is the title ofWadeAllison’sbook.HewrotethatwellbeforeFukushima,andithappenedtobetranslatedintoJapanese.Therewasaverymotivatedwomanwhoconvincedapub-lisherinJapantotranslateit.

SothatcameoutinJapanese,andthetimingwasjustright.

21stCentury:JustafterFukushima?

Tokuhiro: Yes,intheJuly-Augusttimeframe.

It was WadeAllison’sfirst timeinJapan.Wemet forthefirst timeatNaritaAirport.AndwewentrighttoFukushima.Andthroughhiscontacts there were a couple of highschool teachers, some hospital doctorsandadministratorswhowereourhosts.Oneof thempickedusupand tookusaround.

WewenttoMinami-Soma,oneofthehospitals.Theysaidtheywereoperatingatabout40percentcapacity.Someofthedoctorshadleftbecauseofthescareoverradiation,andsomeofthepatientswereevacuatedandhadnotcomeback.

21stCentury:That’sterrible—thepa-tientswouldprobablyhavebeenhelpedby a little low-level background radia-tion.

NUCLEAR REPORT

INTERVIEW:DR.AKIRATOKUHIRO

Fukushima,Science,andRadiation

Photos courtesy of Akira Tokuhiro

Fromright:AkiraTokuhiroandProf.WadeAllisonwithtwoMinami-SomaHospitalhosts,onacoastalroadbridgenearNamievillage,about3-4kmnorthoftheFukushimaDai-ichiplant,Oct.1,2010.Theoceanisabout1kmontheleft.Notethemoundofdebrisinthebackgroundatright.

NUCLEARREPORT

34 Winter2011-2012 21stCenturyScience&Technology NUCLEARREPORT

Tokuhiro: Yes—this thing about thelinearnothresholdtheory,LNT:There’snoscientificbasisfordamageatlowlev-els.So, for thecleanup, thenumberofbecquerels per kilogram of soil that istheirclean-upgoal,makesacriticaldif-ference in how much they’ll have tospendonthecleanup,tryingtogetittoalowlevel,say,500becquerelsperkilo-gramofsoil.There’saHealthMinistryre-portthatsaystheywanttoreducethefi-nalkilobecquerelsofradiationpergramofbeefdownto100. It’s justunbeliev-able.

21st Century: It doesn’t makesense. But people are so brain-washed.That’sthewordyouhavetouse,becausetheyjustdon’tun-derstandwhatitis.

Tokuhiro: Wade Allison had aspecificmessageonthis.HereallywouldliketoencouragetheICRP—InternationalCommissiononRadi-ationProtection—toreconsidertheprescriptivelevelsthattheyhave.

21stCentury:HowdoesDr.Al-lisonintendtogoaboutchangingtheICRP?

Tokuhiro:Rightnow,Ithinkhe’sjust bringingup thediscussion, afirst step. And if you look at hisbook,heshows that in1951, theICRP’s original prescriptive levelswere much higher, and the ICRPkept just lowering and loweringthem.

21stCentury:Basedonfear,re-ally,notanychangeinthescience.

Tokuhiro: I guess my analogyis—I’mmuchmoreofabigpictureper-son.It’sreallyWadeAllison’sexpertise—ifyoumakethesafetyargument,sayforhighways, then we need to have thespeedlimitgodowntozeroforautomo-biles,becauseit’ssafer.

SoIwouldsaythatriskisaspectrum.Andwhenyoutalkaboutrisk,youcan’tjusttalkaboutradiation.Youhavetotalkaboutallkindsofrisks,includingexter-nal or internal exposure, chemicals,smoke,hormones,andsoforth

Ifyou’reeatingsushi,forinstance,you

knowthatthetunahasmercurycontent.It’smercuryladen,sothere’sriskinthat.In Japan,youeat thepufferfish for thedelicacyofthepoison.AndthereareE.colioutbreaksallovertheworld.

TheotherthingIwanttostressisthatthere’s a concept called resiliency, andthat’s what I said in the presentations ImadeinJapan.Thebodyhasanabilitytoaccommodatetotoxinsthatareingested.

21stCentury:Itmayevenstrengthenthebody’simmunesystemfunctioning.

Tokuhiro:Exactly.Sothereisahumanresiliencyintermsof ingestingradioac-tiveparticulates—cesium-137orothers.AndIcantellyouwhatsciencedoesn’tknowtoday:Sciencedoesknowthatre-siliency is different in every individualhumanbeing,butcannotpredictthere-siliency in each individual. We don’thaveenoughscientificknowledgetopre-dict the resiliency of the human bodyagainstingestingtoxins.

21stCentury:Youknow,Dr.EdwardCalabreselookedatthousandsofstudieson all kinds of toxins, including radia-tion,andhefindsthesamespectrumofresults,a“J”curve,sothatonallofthemthereisabeneficialeffectuptoacertaindoselevel.Abovethat,thereisn’t.

And it doesn’t matter what the sub-stance is, he says. He’s found that thecurveindifferentkindsofthingsisthesame.Hesaysit’sveryclear;therearesomanyexperimentsthatshowitthatit’sreally unassailable. Exactly what themechanismis,isanotherquestion.

Tokuhiro:That’swhyI’mtryingtouse

Three dosimeter readings at the coastal roadbridge, showing 0.58, 0.40, and 0.529 mil-lisieverts/hour.

Tokuhiro andAllisonatMinami-SomaHospital, talkingwith seniordoctorswhomonitoredtheradiationexposureofevacuees.

Tokuhiro and Allison posing with a hospitalhostandaSomaHighSchoolscienceteacherhost,infrontofMinami-SomaHospital,whichis 25 km north of the Fukushima nuclearplant.


alittlebitofstreetsense.Whenyouhavetheseinternationalentitiesandthere’saconsensus, that consensus view some-times is a social activity. People agreebecausethey’repartoftheparty.There’sa sense of membership and they don’twanttogoagainstthelegacyoftheiror-ganization.

21st Century: That’s very apparentwiththeLinearNo-Threshold.

Tokuhiro: It becomes detached fromthescience.Theyarenotwillingtolookatthescience,becauseeverybodyinthismembershiphasagreedtomaintainthestatusquo.

21stCentury:Andnewpeoplecomingin to theprofession, learn that“this ishowit’sdone.”Soitneverchanges.

Tokuhiro:Right.Sothere’sathresholdlevel,andthereisnoscientificbasisforsayingthereisnot.Andweareabandon-ingourprinciplesasscientistsnottosaywereallyneedtolookatthisagain.Andweneedtolookatitinthebroadercon-textoftoxinsthatweingestandthatwe’reexposedto.

21stCentury:HowwouldyougettheAmericanNuclearSociety,forexample,tobegintolookatthis?

Tokuhiro:Well, I’ll take that up at atalk thisweek, thatweneed to lookatthat,thatweneedtoreconsider.

21st Century: I didn’t find a singlenegative response from anybody I’vetalkedtoattheconferencetodayontheLNTquestion.Mostpeopleknewaboutit.Theydidn’tknowthatHermanMuller,theNobelistwasaeugenicist,orsomeof

theothernastyback-ground....

I was really sur-prised. Muller was aprotégé of Huxley,who was a viciousgreen and eugenicistofthehard-lineNazitype.As far as I cantell, Muller was notthat, but Huxley in-vitedhimtocometohisinstituteintheear-ly1900s,sotheymusthave shared somekindofideology.

Then Muller wenttoGermanytostudy,andheleftinthe1930sbecauseoftheNazisandwenttotheSovietUnion.Hewroteabookoneugenicsin1935,andwhenStalinreadthebookinRussiantranslation,hetoldMullertogetoutoftheSovietUnion.

I think there’s a big story there—Idon’t know what it is yet. So then hewent to England and later returned totheUnitedStates.

But people change over their life-time....MullerwasveryactivewithBer-trand Russell in the “Ban the Bomb”movement,andRussellwasabiggenoc-idalist.Hewantedtokilloffmillionsofpeopleperiodically,andhesaidhowto

do it.Hemadenobonesabout that. Icouldn’tquitebelievethisinthe1970swhenIfirstheardit,butthequotesfromhimarethere,inblackandwhite.

Russellsaid,wedon’twanttogooutand just kill people, butdisease,wars,famine, and sometimes other methodswouldbenecessary.Hewas targettingpeople of color in particular, but alsopeopleingeneral.Russellwasnotanice,happyperson.

Dr.Calabresethinks thatMuller justwanted to protect the human genomefromradiation.I’mnotsure;Ithinkthattheremightbemoretoit....He’sgoneinto thearchivesat theAtomicEnergyCommissionandotherslookingforcor-respondence and reading some of thepapers.Mullerwrotealot....Ithinkit’simportanttolookatthehistoryofthis.

Tokuhiro:Ithasthemakingsofamov-ie.It’sreallyprettyfascinating.Itbringsadarkhistoryofhumankindintoview.

21stCentury:Andthecontinuationofit,thepeoplewhoarestilldefendingtheLNT,onwhatbasisaretheydoingit?

Tokuhiro:That’swhyit’sasocialactiv-ity,notsomuchascienceactivity.

21stCentury:Well,it’soneofthebadsocialactivities thathave tobe turnedaround!Doyouhavespecificproposals

ProfessorsTokuhiro(left)andAllisonaddressingaTokyomeet-ing,sponsoredby theAmericanChamberofCommerce inJapan,onfoodsafety,Oct.3,2010.Anoutlineofthepresen-tationscanbefoundhere.Videosofthemeetingarehere.

DebrisalongsideacoastalroadnearNamievillage.TheirhoststookTokuhiroandAl-lisononatouroftheareaviaambulance.

NUCLEARREPORT

www.radiationandreason.com/uploads/FCCJ_ALLISON_100311_FINAL.pdf

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fsu7Yzs7RNA&feature=bf_prev&list=PL6BFCBCF9550B4E66&

36 Winter2011-2012 21stCenturyScience&Technology NUCLEARREPORT

thatyouwanttheICRPtodiscuss.

Tokuhiro: I agree withAllison, that we have togetawayfromtheideaof“as low as reasonablyachievable”—ALARA.Heproposed“aslowassafe-tyallows.”

Allison’s view, and Iagree, is to set an upperlimit, and that would behalf the actual radiationthreshold beyond whichyou would actually starttoseeevidenceofharm.

21st Century: So hewouldn’tgototheactualthreshold,buthalfway?

Tokuhiro: Yes, he wassaying,ifthecurrentstan-dardis20millisievertsperyear,andthethresholdisactually200millisievertsperyear, let’s make it 100 millisieverts peryear.Beyondthathigherlevel,youmaystart to see some documented medicalevidencethatthereisahealtheffect.

Buteventhen—Iwasdiscussingwithahealth physics professor today, askingwhatisreallythedefinitionofhealthef-fects?Whatif,becauseofingestingcesi-um-137,forexample,whatifitdisturbsyoursleeppattern?Isthatahealtheffect?Yougetintograyareasintermsofwhatisahealtheffect thatyoucanattribute toradiation.

21stCentury:Doescesium-137actu-allydisturbsleeppatterns?

Tokuhiro:Iwasjustusingitasanex-ample.Withsometoxins,thatcanbe.But

ifyouhaveindigestion, thatcandisturbyoursleeppatternaswell.I’mnottryingtobehumorous,butthat’sactuallyfromingesting rich food, or too much food,whichcanbeanhealtheffect;thereisagrayarea.So,asascientist,wewouldsaythatweneedtolookatthisscientifically.

21st Century: But you also have tolook at the enormous benefits that wearemissingouton.TheJapanesestudies,forexample,thatgavewhole-body,low-level radiation to people with lympho-ma;thosepatientsarestillalivetoday,asopposed to thepatientswhodidn’tgetthatlowdose,beforetheyhadthetarget-tedhigh-doseradiation.So,whywouldn’twebedoingthatforeverybody?Ifpeo-pleunderstoodthatradiationisgoodforyouatthatlowlevel,wewouldbe.

Tokuhiro: Professor Allison hassaid that because of a set of cir-cumstances—the Cold War, thefearofnuclearwarfare,fallout,nu-clear winter—all of these thingscreated a generation of people,andnowwe’resustainingthatfearofradiation.

21st Century: I would add thegenocidal factor.Populationcon-trol.

Tokuhiro:That’skindofacoinci-dentalthing.Theheadlinesarethatwe’venowreached7billionpopu-lation.

21stCentury:Thatdoesn’tworryme,becauseyoulookathumanbe-ings in terms of their minds, and

whatthey’recapableofdo-ing.Sothemoreyouhaveofthem,andthemoreeducat-edtheyare,themoreinno-vation you have, and themoreyoucanmovesocietyforward....

IwishtheANSwouldbe-gintopromotenuclearre-ally fully. I don’t think itdoes now, because—thismorning’s session, for ex-ample, they were talkingabout cost-benefit on thelowest possible level. Andreally, you can’t do thatwith nuclear, because thebenefit you get from thehighenergyfluxdensity, is

notmeasuredincost-benefit.Tokuhiro: I know. I thought of some

differentthings.Acoupleofthespeakerstoday talked about nuclear energy andenergyasanationalsecurityissue,quiteafewtimes.Whenyoutalkaboutnation-alsecurity,andwhenyou,forexample,talkaboutgoing toAfghanistanor Iraq,youdon’tdothat.We’renottalkingaboutcost-benefitthere.So,ifenergysecurityisanationalsecurityissue,thenyoucan-notbringcost-benefitanalysisordollarargumentsintoit.

21stCentury:Yes,it’sstupid.It’sstu-pidwithhealthcarealso.Ifyouhaveahealthypopulation, thenyougetmorebrainpower,moreideas,youcanmoveforward. In this country, you probablyhavelivedherelongenoughtoknowthe

Morescenesoftsunamidestructionnearthesamecoastalroad.“It’sabeautifularea—hills,mountains,andalotoftrees.VerydifferentfromTokyo,”Tokuhirosaid.


differencethathasoccurred,thatwe’vebeengoingbackwardsnotforwardinsomanyways.

Tokuhiro: I was telling a friend whowassittingnexttome,whenyourchildisill, and in the hospital, you don’t do acost-benefit analysis, you think aboutthatlater,aboutmanaginghowtopayforthatsurgery.

21stCentury:Somanythingsarelikethat.Youhavetohaveatop-downview,look at the overall picture from theworldperspective,whereresourcesgo,andwhattheyshouldbeusedfor.

Ithinkalotofthiswastostopciviliannuclear power, because you can showthatwithnuclearpower, youcan sup-portanincreasedpopulationatabetterliving standard. We proved that yearsago,withastudythatshowed,withoutanydispute,thattheeconomicbenefitsto the whole society would be great.China knows that, India knows that.That’swhytheyaregoingnuclear.

Tokuhiro: We started that, actually.PresidentEisenhowergavethatAtomsforPeacespeechin1953,andmanysay,settheciviliannuclearenergyinmotion.

21stCentury:Andforagoodreason!Ithinkacertainfactionhasalwaysbeenopposedtothatidea.Withmanyothers,it’sthesocialfactor.Theygrewupwiththis,they’recontinuingtoperpetuateit.But behind it is the ideological battle.Therehasbeenterrificoppositiontogiv-ingthedevelopingsectorciviliannucle-arpower.

Tokuhiro:Right,soatthispoint,we’resayinglet’sputthisonthetable,let’sdis-cussitagain.

21stCentury:That’sgreat.Tokuhiro:So,alongwiththis,whatre-

allyisa“healtheffect”ofradiation,andwhat isnot ahealtheffect? I thinkyouhavetoagreeonsomeofthesethings—positivebenefitsandnegativeeffects.

21st Century: Edward Calabrese haswrittenmanyarticleson this...on thehistory,andthemedicalprofession.

Tokuhiro:Thisisgreat.Ihavetolookatthat.I’mthankfulthatyoubroughtitup.These are interesting topics. I’d love toreadthosekindsofpapers.

21stCentury:Andyouhavestudents

whocoulddosomeresearch.Tokuhiro:Yes, these are some of the

moreinterestingthings.Asanengineer-ingprofessor,Imostlydealwiththemorenuts-and-boltsstuff.AndIhavetheluxu-ryofmostofthetimestayingawayfromthese issues that are “softer.” We callthemsofterasengineers—butthisisac-tuallythebiggestchallengewhenpeoplegetentrenchedinaposition,andit’shardtochangethat,whenitdoesn’thavetheproperscientificbasis.

It’s an issue that we face with many,manythings.Climatechangeforexample.Youhavesciencepeoplemakingscience.

21stCentury:OneoftheissuesIhavewithProfessorAllisoninhisbook,isthathepremisedthenuclearissueonglobalwarming.AndIthinkthat’ssilly,becausethat’sresearchthatI’vedonemyself,intermsofhowglobalwarminggotstarted.In1975,therewasameetingwithMar-garetMead,aconference.Allofthema-jorglobalwarmerswerethere,andtheydiscussedonthebasisofpopulationcon-trol,howcanwescarepeopleintocut-tingbackontheirlivingstandard.

Theyhadtriedglobalcooling,anditdidn’t catchon, and so theydiscussedthis, and you can read some of thespeeches,whichwerepublished,whereMead was actually coming out for in-venting,justjimmyingthingssothatyoucouldscarepeople.Andthat’swhathap-pened.Thepeopleatthisconferencein-cludedStephenSchneider,someoftheotherbigwigs.

Some of them are rabid—They werequoting Paul Ehrlich, who had writtenThe Population Bombafewyearsearlier.They were quoting Ehrlich, saying yes,wehavetofigureoutwaystocurbpopu-lation.Americans are too consumerist,wehavetocutback.Thisis1975,andittook off from there.And like the LNT,theysurrounditwith“science,”butisittrue?Idon’tthinkso.

Tokuhiro:Well, it’s the reality of hu-manitythatevenscienceisahumanac-tivity,andpeoplewhohavetheability—not necessarily to see the future—buttheyaresmartenoughtomakeachangethatwillhaveanimpactonthefuture.Soyouseethatinradiation,andasyousaid,youseeitinclimatechange.

NUCLEARREPORT

• Jerry M. Cuttler, “The SignificantHealth Benefits of NuclearRadiation,” Fall 2001

• James Muckerheide, “It’s Time toTell the Truth about the HealthBenefits of Low-Dose Radiation,”Summer 2000

• Dr. Theodore Rockwell, “RadiationProtection Policy: A Primer,”Summer 1999

• Zbigniew Jaworowski, “A RealisticAssessment of Chernobyl’s HealthEffects,” Spring 1998

• Jim Muckerheide and Ted Rockwell,“The Hazards of U.S. Policy on Low-level Radiation,” Fall 1997

Radiation experts argue thatcurrent U.S. policy of a “linear no-threshold” approach to radiationdamage has no science behind it andis wasting billions of governmentdollars in clean-up that could bespent on real health benefits.

• Sadao Hattori (interview), “UsingLow-dose Radiation for CancerSuppression and Revitalization,”Summer 1997

•Radiation Hormesis,” Fall 1996

T.D. Luckey, “The Evidence for

• Zbigniew Jaworowski, “Hormesis:The Beneficial Effects of Radiation,”Fall 1994

21st CENTURYSCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY

ARTICLES ON

RADIATION and HORMESIS

BAor at www.21stcenturysciencetech.com. Send check or money order to

CK ISSUES are $5 each ($8 foreign) and can be ordered from 21st Century

21st Century P.O. Box 16285, Washington, D.C. 20041.


Butconsiderewel,thatIneusurpenattohavefoundethiswerkofmylabourorofmynengin.InambutalewdcompilatourofthelabourofoldeAstrologiens,andhavehittranslatedinmynEnglishonlyforthydoctrine;&withthisswerdshalIsleenenvye.

—Chaucer,TreatiseontheAstrolabeca.1391

IntroductiontotheAstrolabeThere is a tale, both apocryphal and

scatological, thatClaudiusPtolemy, theAlexandrian astronomer (ca. 90 A.D.-168A.D.)whoseideasdominatedastro-nomicalthoughtforwelloveramillen-nium (Figure 1), got the idea for theplanispheric astrolabe while riding adonkey.Thearmillaryspherehewascar-ryingfellandwasflattenedbythedon-key’s hoof into a pile of fresh donkeydung.Uponinspectingtheresultingim-pression, a candle ignited in hismind,leadingtothecreationofanastronomical instrument souseful,thatitoutlastedPtolemaicastrono-myitself.

Becausethefirstpreservedastro-labesaremadeofbrassanddatedsincethetimeofMuhammad,andthefirstknowntreatiseontheastro-labe was written well before Mu-hammad,itisunknownwhenandwhere the astrolabe was born—surely not full-grown and fullyadorned,likeAthenafromtheheadof Zeus. Early astrolabes probablylong predated the technology foraccurately rendering the requisitelines and arcs onto brass. Paper,cloth,andwoodweremore likelythemediaforthefirstastrolabes.

TheMuslimsattribute theastro-labe to the Greeks, and certainlyGreekgeometryinformeditsdevel-opment. As Greeks moved East,conquering and occupying areas

suchasBactria,andareas in IndiaduringandafterthereignofAlexan-dertheGreat,theytookGreekcul-tureandtechnologywiththem,andthey maintained contact with theMediterraneanGreeks.

However,whentheRomanscon-queredtheGreeksduringtheThirdPunicWar,itseemsasifasemi-per-meablemembranewereappliedbe-tweentheEasternGreekareassuchas Bactria, and the Roman strong-holdstotheWest.MuchGreeksci-ence,especiallynewdevelopments,could not penetrate back into thatarea,butflowedfreelyintopartsofIndiaandmuchofAsiaMinorandNorthAfrica.

Thesenewdevelopments,aswellasolderknowledgedestroyedintheWest, became the heritage of thepeoplewhowould fallunder the influ-enceoftheMuslims.Whetherbecauseof

RomanindifferenceorGreekreluctance,suchdiscoveriesas theplanisphericas-

trolabeneverpenetratedbackintotheRomanEmpireintheWest,buthadtoawait theMuslimconquestofSpainathousandyearslatertobere-introducedintoEurope.

During thatmillennium, the as-trolabe and countless other trea-sures of Greek culture exclusivelyenrichedtheEast.Itwastherethattheplanisphericastrolabereacheditsmaturityasanastronomical in-strument(Figure2).

AnAnalogComputerThe planispheric astrolabe is a

two-dimensional analog computerforsolvingproblemsrelatedtoce-lestial movements: time, the sea-sons,andstarpositions.Itisalsoanobserving instrument; the back oftheastrolabeissetup,amongotherthings,tomeasurealtitudesofstarsandplanets,includingthedaytimeSun.Theastrolabepacksalotofin-formationintoaverysmallspace—even more than an adventurer’s

Figure1PTOLEMYWITHANARMILLARY

SPHEREThispaintingofPtolemywithaarmillaryspheremodelisbyJoosvanGhentandPe-droBerruguete,ca.1476.

ASTRONOMY REPORT

HowtoConstructanAstrolabe,UsingYourPCbyChristineCraig

Figure2PLANISPHERICASTROLABE

A planispheric astrolabe of Persian origin, ca.1590,ondisplayat thePutnamGallery in theHarvardUniversityScienceCenter.

ASTRONOMYREPORT

21stCenturyScience&Technology Winter2011-2012 39ASTRONOMYREPORT

wristwatch(althoughatleastonemanu-facturer—Ulysse-Nardin—madeawrist-watchinthe1980sthatwasafunctional,automated astrolabe.You can buy oneforonly$27,500online).

TheplanisphericastrolabeisreallyjustastereographicprojectionofallobjectsofinterestontheCelestialSphere(onelikePtolemy’sarmillarysphere,completewitheclipticandusefulstars)toaplanecoinci-dent with the Equator of the CelestialSphere. (However,aglanceat theworkon theastrolabeof the9thCenturyPer-sian astronomer al Farghani shows hisplanetangenttotheNorthPoleoftheCe-lestialSphere).TheEquatoroftheEarthisunderstood to be coincident with thatplaneaswell.Theoriginpointforthepro-jectionistheSouthPoleoftheCelestialSphere,aconventionconvenientforthoseresidingnorthoftheEquatoronEarth.

Thestereographicprojectionwasdis-covered by the ancient Greeks, and isusuallyattributedtoHipparchus(ca.190B.C.-120 B.C.), although Apollonius ofPerga(ca.262B.C.-190B.C.)couldwellhavedeveloped it. It isausefulway tomaptheheavensontoaflatsurfacewhilepreserving both circles and angles be-tweenobjects,asmeasuredonthethree-dimensionalsphere.

The astrolabe is made up of severalmoving parts securely attached to themater,whichholdsandprotectstheoth-erparts,andalsocontainsessentialde-greeandtimeorotherscalesontheouterraceorlimbofboththefrontandback.

Thebackof theastrolabematercon-tains degree, calendar, and zodiacalscales(Figure3).Astrolabemakersoftenaddedmanyusefultablesforsolvingas-tronomical, time, and trigonometricproblems.Thebackalsocontainsamov-ablepointer,thealidade,attachedtothecenter,withsightsforobservingaceles-tialobjecttofinditsaltitude.

Todothis,onewouldhangtheastro-labe on the thumb with the arm heldabove the eye.Ancient astrolabes con-tainedringsattachedtoatoppiececalledthethroneforhangingthedeviceonthethumb.Thealtitudeoftheobjectinviewcouldthenbereadfromascalealongthelimboftheback.

Thefrontoftheastrolabemater(Figure4) contains the limb with scales in de-grees and hours, and a central circularcavitycapableofholdingseveralclimateplates,overlainwithamovablerete(pro-

Figure3ASTROLABEMATER(BACK)

Figure4ASTROLABEMATER(FRONT)

40 Winter2011-2012 21stCenturyScience&Technology ASTRONOMYREPORT

nouncedreetee),theeclipticcirclewith CLIMATE PLATEusefulstarslocatedonit.Finally,thereisa movable graduated pointer called arule,forreadingoffdeclinationsfromtheplate,ordegreesorhoursfromthelimb.

Thewholedeviceisheldtogetherwithanaxleandlinchpindevice(Figure5).

Existingancientastrolabesweremadefromdurableengravedbrass,butitstandsto reason that most astrolabes weredrawnonpaper,wood,orsimilarmateri-als,whichwerecheaperandmoreread-ilyavailable.Unfortunately,thoseinstru-mentsdidnotsurvivetheravagesoftimeandhumanevents.

Your instrument will suffer the samefate,unlessyouplantoengraveoretchyour astrolabemarkings intobrass.Butluckilyforyou,youcanpreservethetem-platesforyourastrolabeonyourcomput-ertobereprintedontocardstockinthefuture, in case of the tragic demise ofyourpresentastrolabe.

WhyBuildanAstrolabe?AlmosteveryoneseemstohaveaPC

thesedays,withMicrosoftOfficeon it.Mostly it is used for e-mail and simpledocumentproduction,andtheexpensivesoftwarejustgoestowaste.Constructingourastrolabewillpushthelimitsofoneof the applications of Microsoft Officethat few people take seriously: Power-Point.PowerPointmightjustbetheper-

Figure6

Figure5ANASTROLABEDISASSEMBLED

An18thCenturyastrolabefromNorthAfrica,show-ingitsvariousparts.Theaxleandlinchpindeviceareintheforeground.

Figure7CLIMATECIRCLES


fect vehicle to introduce people to thepower and beauty of an ancient astro-nomicalinstrumentwithrelevanceeventoday:theplanisphericastrolabe.

UsingPowerPoint toconstructanas-trolabeisasclosetoconstructingtheas-trolabewithstraightedge,compass,andprotractorasyoucangetonacomputer.IfyoucandoitwithPowerPoint,youcandoitoncardstock.

ButPowerPointhasmanyadvantagesover pencil and paper in adjustability,erasability, and transferability of linesandcircles.Further, thewholeprocess,frombeginningtoend,canbesavedonslidestoillustrateyourprogressforpos-terity.

Myaimistoconvincepeopletolearnmoreaboutastronomyanditshistorybyconstructinganastronomicalinstrumentsousefulthatitmayhavepredated,andcertainlyoutlasted,thePtolemaicastro-nomicalsystem.Becausethesubjectisalargeone, thisarticlewill focusmainlyontheconstructionofoneimportantpartoftheastrolabe:theclimateplate.

ElementsoftheClimatePlateTheheartofthemateristheclimate,or

latitudeplate,which,asitsnamesimply,is different for different latitudes of theEarth(Figure6).Theclimateplateisalat-itude-specificcircularslideruleforcal-culating solutions to problems dealingwithtime,season,theSun,thefixedstars,andeventheplanetsandtheMoon,giv-en an ephemeris to locate the planetsupontheplate for thetimeanddateofinterest.

Theotherpartsoftheastrolabecanbeusedanywhere,buttheclimateplatemustbeconstructedspecificallyforthelatitudeof theobserver. In the timeofClaudiusPtolemy, theEarthwasdivided intoCli-matesbasedonmaximumhoursofsun-light/darkness,withtheEquatorbeingXII,andtheNorthPolebeingXXIV.Sixorsev-en climate plates would serve for theknownNorthernWorldofPtolemy.

Nowadays,wemeasureEarth’slatitudebydegrees,withtheEquatorbeing0de-grees,and theNorthPolebeing90de-grees.Areasonablecompromisebetweenaccuracyandexpediencywouldbealat-itudeplateforeach5degreesoflatitudewhereoneexpectedtousetheplate.

Theclimateplateismadeupofseveraltypesofcirclesandarcs,whicharenec-essaryforitsfunctionalityasameasuringinstrument.Thethreemaintypesarethe

climatecircles,thealmucantars,andtheazimutharcs.

Theclimatecircles (Figure7)arecir-clesrepresentingtheTropicofCapricorn,theEquator,andtheTropicofCancer,asviewedbystereographicprojectionfromthe South Celestial Pole.TheTropic ofCapricornisthelargestcircle,whiletheTropicofCanceristhesmallestone.TheNorth Pole would be represented by apointinthecenterofthethreeconcentriccircles.

Thealmucantars(Figure8)areaseriesofnestedbutnon-concentriccirclesradi-atingoutwardfromtheZenith(apointat90degreesfromtheHorizon).Theyrep-resentthealtitude,indegrees,ofobjectsof interestabove theHorizon,which isthelargestcircle,at0degrees.Thelarger

almucantarcirclesarecutoffbytheout-eredgeoftheclimateplate—theTropicofCapricorncircle.

TheNorthPoleisaholeatthecenteroftheplatewheretheclimateplateisat-tached to the mater, and would corre-spondtothelatitudeofyourlocationonEarth.

Thethirdmajorcurvesontheclimateplate are called azimuth circles (Figure9),althoughtheyaretruncatedintoarcsbytheedgeoftheplate.Thesearcs,inter-sectingattheZenith,representdivisionsoftheclimateplateintodegree-segmentsfrom East through South throughWest,andbacktoEast,withEastandWestdes-ignated as 0 degrees, and South andNorthdesignatedas90degrees(thisvar-iedamongastrolabemakers).

Figure8ALMUCANTARS

ASTRONOMYREPORT


BuildingtheClimatePlateWe shall now focus on constructing

suchaplate for40degreesNorthLati-tude. Such a plate would be usablethroughoutawide swathof theUnitedStates,includingmanyofthelargestcit-ies, from San Francisco to the Oregonborder,St.LouisuptoDetroit,andWash-ington,D.C.,uptoBoston.

The first step in constructing the cli-mateplateistodeterminethesizeoftheEquatorcircle,forthatwilldeterminetheoverallsizeoftheplate.Theradiusofthiscirclewillbeusedincalculatingthesiz-esoftheTropicofCancerradiusandtheTropicofCapricorn radius.The limbofthemater,withitsmarkings,mustlieout-side theTropicofCapricorncircle.TheEclipticcircleof the retewill cycleec-centricallybetween theTropicsofCan-cer and Capricorn circles in its diurnalandseasonalmotions(Figure10).

WewillchoosetheradiusoftheEqua-tortobe2inchesforourpurposes,givingusanoveralldimensionfortheastrolabeoflessthan7.5inches.

Next we must draw this circle on ablankPowerPoint slidebyselecting thecircleobject, clicking itonto the slide,and right-clickingon it to bringup themenutoFormatShape.Choosesizeas4(diameter), after checking the Lock as-pectratiobox.ChoosetheFillasclear.NoShadow.Linecolorandthicknessofyourchoice.Centerthecircleinthecen-teroftheslide.SelectalineobjectfromtheObjectPalette.Clickitontotheslideatthecenterofthecircle,anddrawitouttotheedgesoftheslidehorizontally,bi-sectingthecircle.

Youmaydothesamewithaverticalline.YounowhaveacrosssectionoftheCelestial Sphere, with the North/SouthaxisandtheEquatorialaxisdisplayed.Ifyouwish,youmaycolorthetwolinestodifferentiate them from new lines youwilldrawonyourworkingslide.

NowduplicatethatslideusingtheIn-sert menu/Duplicate Slide. I note herethatitisimportanttocontinuallydupli-cateslidestopreservepartsofyourworkwhileyouareconstructingyourclimateplate.SelectalineobjectfromtheOb-jectPalette.Clickitontothefirstslideatthecenterofthecircle,anddrawitouttothecircumferenceontheright-handhor-izontalradiusofthecircle.

Next,copyandpastethatlineontothesameslidetogiveyouasecondlineto

Figure9AZIMUTHS

Figure10RETE


Figure11CLIMATECIRCLEPROJECTION

Figure12CONSTRUCTINGTHECANCERCIRCLE

ASTRONOMYREPORT


work with. Now right-clickthat second line to bring upFormatShape,andgoto theSizesubmenu.Addthepres-entanglefor theobliquityoftheEcliptictotheexistingan-gle in the Angle field, andmoveitsoitextendsfromthecentertothecircumference.

Then, using the first hori-zontal line, again copy andpaste the line,andnext sub-tracttheangleoftheobliquityoftheEclipticfromwhateverangle is in the Angle field.Move that line so it extendsfromthecentertothecircum-ference.

Because the present angleoftheobliquityisabout23.44degrees, and PowerPoint ac-ceptsonlyintegerangles,youare left with the contrivanceofproducing thin linesat23degrees,24degrees,andmi-nus23and24degrees, thensplittingthedifferenceathighZoom in the next operation.Onceyouhavetheanglesofthe obliquity marked on thecircumference above and below theEquator,selectanewline,click itontotheSouthPolepoint,anddrawituptotheTropicofCancerpoint.

TakeanotherlineanddrawitfromtheSouthPole,throughtheTropicofCapri-corn point, and onto the Equator line.WhereeachoftheselinesintersectstheEquatorline,marksthelengthofthera-diusofeachcirclefromthecenter.Tofindthelengthofthoseradii,youcanextendaline to each point from the center, andfindthelengthintheSizefield.Multiplyby2togetthediameterofeachcircle.

NowselectandformatcirclesofthosesizesfromtheObjectPalette,andcenterthemconcentricwiththeEquatorcircleonyourduplicateslide(Figure11).Alter-natively,youcanfigureoutthetwotropiccirclesmorepreciselyusingtrigonomet-ric ratios: Rcan=ReqTan((90– )/2) (Fig-ure12)andRcap=ReqTan((90+)/2)(Fig-ure13).Multiplyby2togetthediametersandplacethemaroundtheequatorcircleintheduplicatedslide.ConstructionoftheAlmucantarCircles

Thenextstepistodrawthealmucantar(altitude)circles.Allofthiscanbedoneon the same slide,but itwouldget in-

Figure13CONSTRUCTINGTHECAPRICORNCIRCLE

Figure14NORTH-SOUTH-EQUATORCROSSHAIRS


crediblyclutteredandhardtoplacethelines.Also,someof thealmucantarcir-cles, especially the Horizon circle, arevery large,so it isbest tocreateanewslide using the same-size circle as theEquatorcircle,butmovingittotheleftofcenterby2.5inches.

Divide the circle vertically and hori-zontally by selecting line objects andclickingthemintoplace(asinFigure14).The vertical diameter represents theNorth/SouthPolesoftheCelestialSphere.Thehorizontal lineshouldbeextendedtothelimitsoftheslide.Itisacrosssec-tion of the plane of projection at theEquator of the Celestial Sphere. It alsorepresentstheMeridianoftheastrolabeunder construction, with South to therightandNorthontheprojectionpointoftheCelestialNorthPole(atthecircle’sor-igin). Create a duplicate slide at thispoint.

Nowpasteanewlinefromtheoriginofthecircletothetop,ontopoftheverti-cal diameter line. Copy and paste thatlineontotheslidesoyouhavetwowork-inglinestousenext.Rightclickthenew-lypastedverticallineandgototheSizewindow.Whatevertheanglesaysfortheverticalline,add40degreestoitanden-terthatintherotationfield.

Moveyourlinetotheoriginsothatitisaradiuspointing40degreestotheleftofvertical, and extend it to the circle cir-cumference in both directions, makingsureitpassesthroughthecenter.ThislineisyourHorizonlineforalatitudeof40degrees.TheCelestialNorthPole is 40degreesclockwisefromtheNorthHori-zon.

Nowcopyandpasteyouroriginalver-ticallineagain,thistimesubtracting50degreesfromit.Putitattheorigin,andextend it to thecirclecircumference inboth directions, making sure it passesthroughthecenter.ThislineistheZenith/Nadirline.Itis90degreesfromtheNorthHorizon.

SelectanewlinefromtheObjectPal-etteandclickitontotheSouthPoleofthe Celestial Sphere. Extend it to theNorth Horizon point on the circle cir-cumference.Where this linemeets theEquator line is the projection of theNorthHorizonpointontotheastrolabeplate.

Repeat,byextendinglinestotheSouthHorizonpoint,theZenithpoint,andtheNorthPolepoint(projectedtotheoriginofthecircle).Marktheprojectionpointsfor theZenithandNorthPolewithtinycolored circles. The distance from the

North Horizon projection point to theSouth Horizon projection point (Figure15)givesthediameterandlocationoftheHorizoncircletobecreatedonthecli-mateplate.

Createacircleofthisdiameterjustliketheearliercircles,andpositionitsothattheNorthandSouthHorizonprojectionpoints are on the circumference of thecircle—if youwereusing compass andstraightedge, you would bisect the linebetween theprojectionpoints,andusethe compass to draw the circle (Figure16).Now,selectthatcircleandcopyandpasteitontoyourduplicateslide.

YoumayalternativelyfigureoutyourHorizon circle diameter using trigono-metricratios(Figure17).

Therestofthealmucantarcirclescanbeconstructedthesameway(seeFigure18),byfindingtheanglesforeachaltitudeupto90degrees(theZenith),projectingfrom theSouthCelestialPole to get thenorth and southdiameterpoints for thenecessarycircle,andplacingthecircleontheslide.Theconstruction,movedtotheclimate circles, and including the Hori-zoncircleand thealmucantarcircle for50degrees,isshowninFigure19.

Note that while the 50-degree circlewillbeacircleinthefinalplate,theHo-

Figure15CONSTRUCTINGTHEHORIZONCIRCLE

ASTRONOMYREPORT


Figure16THECONSTRUCTEDHORIZONCIRCLE

Figure17THETRIGONOMETRYOFTHEHORIZONCIRCLE


rizoncirclewillbeanarccutoffbytheTropic of Capricorn circle. Figure 20showsallofthealmucantarcirclesin3-degreeintervalsfrom0degreesto60de-grees,andin5-degreeintervalsfrom60degreesto80degrees.

The50-degree circle from theprevi-ousslideissuperimposedinredtoillus-tratewhereitfallsontheplate.YouwillfinditvaluabletoZoominandoutdur-ing the construction of the almucantarcircles.

ConstructingtheAzimuthCirclesAfterconstructingthealmucantarcir-

cles,thenextphaseistoconstructtheaz-imuth circles. If the almucantar circlesare viewed as dividing the heavens upintoequalaltitudezonesfromtheHori-zontotheZenith,theazimuthcirclesdi-vide the heavens from Zenith to NadirintoequalanglezonesfromEastthroughSouthtoWesttoNorth,thenbacktotheEast, like the segments of an orange.Whenprojectedontotheclimateplate,eachazimuthcirclehasboththeZenithandtheNadiraspointsonitscircumfer-

ence, but each has a different originrangedoutonalinewhichistheperpen-dicular bisector of the line connectingtheprojectionpointsof theZenithandNadir.

If you create a circle connecting theZenithandNadirprojectionpointsasadiameter,theperpendiculardiameterofthat circle would be the line of circlecentersfortheazimuthcircleprojections(Figure21).ThatcirclesymmetricabouttheMeridianlineiscalledPrimeVertical(Figure22).

Tofindtheotherazimuthcircles,wemust find their center points along thelineofcenters.AlinedrawnfromeachcentertotheZenithorNadirprojectionpointwilldefinethatcirclesradius.Dou-blingthatradiuswillgiveusthediame-ters for thecirclesweneed.Tofindthecentersofthecircles,wemustmeasureanglesfromtheZenithtothelineofcen-tersequaltotheanglesoftheazimuthswewishtodraw.

Ifwewishtohaveazimuthcirclesforeach10degrees, then lineswith these

anglesmustintersectthelineofcentersonbothsidesoftheMeridianforeach10degrees. The intersections define theazimuth circle centers, and the linesdefinetheazimuthradii.PrimeVerticalisthespecialcaseofa0-degreeangle.Theotherspecialcaseisthe90-degreeangle,whichisaninfinitelylargecircleindistinguishable from the Meridian it-self.

Because theazimuthcirclesbecomeverylargealongthelineofcenters,wewillalignthatlineofcenterslefttorightontheslideuponacopyofthethreecli-matecirclescenteredontheslide.Don’tforgettoZoomliberally.Aswiththeal-mucantar circles, we start with a cen-teredcircleofdiameter4.Selectalinewith the qualities desired, copy andpaste thatlinetohaveaworkingcopy,andusethatlinetocreatetheanglesweneed.

Figure23givesthePrimeVerticalcir-cleand the two40-degreeazimuthcir-cles.Theslidehadtobereducedto75percent tofit the40-degreecircles into

Figure18ALMUCANTARPROJECTIONS

ASTRONOMYREPORT


Figure20ALLALMUCANTARS

Figure19ALMUCANTARRELATIONSHIPS


Figure21AZIMUTHLINEOFCENTERS

Figure22AZIMUTHPRIMEVERTICAL

ASTRONOMYREPORT


thefigure.Figure24showsallthecircles in place, and Figure 25showsthemhighlyreducedtofitontheslide.

Theazimuthcirclesasseenonthe final astrolabe climate plateareonlyarcs,sincetheyareonlyexpressedabovetheHorizoncir-cleandarebounded,asaretheal-mucantarcircles,bytheTropicofCapricorn.Aswiththealmucantarcircles,aringobjectwillbelaterbeusedtoblockoutthosepartsofthe circles outside the desiredbounds.

AssemblingthePartsNow thatwehavecreated the

climate circles, the almucantars,andtheazimuthcircles,wehaveall themajorelementsnecessaryfortheclimateplate.Thenextstepis to assemble them together. Ifyoubuiltyouralmucantarsuponyourclimatecircleslide,theyarealreadyassembled.

Ifyouusedanewcircleofdi-ameter4inches,youmustaddtheTropic of Cancer and Tropic ofCapricorn circles to your almu-cantarslide,concentricwithyourEquatorcircle.Thesecircles,andtheirhorizontalandverticaldiam-eterlines,mustberight-clickedaf-terselecting,tobringupthemenu.ThenchooseArrange, andBringtoFrontforeachofthem.

Onceyouhaveyouralmucan-tars on your climate circles, youneedtogroupalloftheelements,thenrotate thegroup90degreescounter-clockwise. To finish offtheconstruction,youmustputanopaquewhiteringaroundtheHo-rizoncircletoremovetheazimuthlinesfromtheareabelowit,sincethey are needed only above thehorizon.

Select Donut from the objectsandsize itso the insidering justfitsaroundtheHorizoncircle.Theringfillshouldbeopaquewhitetomatchthebackground(Figure26).This group will now be copiedandpastedontoyourazimuthcir-cleslide,makingsurethatthe4-diametercirclescoincide.

Now,go to theObjectPaletteandselecttheDonutobject.Clickit onto your slide, format it to

Figure24ALLAZIMUTHS

Figure23AZIMUTH40-DEGREECIRCLES


Figure25AZIMUTHSVIEWEDINTHESMALL

Figure26AZIMUTHSWITHRINGFILL

ASTRONOMYREPORT


white, no shadow, withlinestomatchyourotherlines,andsetthediame-ter to 12. Center it onyour circles. Next, clicktheyellowbox,anddragitsotheinneredgeofthering coincides with theTropic of Capricorn cir-cle. Small position ad-justments can be madeusing the keyboard ar-rowstonudgetheshape.

AlllinesoutsideoftheTropicofCapricorncirclehave now been coveredbyyourringfill.

Because the three cli-mate circles with theirvertical diameters doneed to be seen belowthe Horizon circle, theymust be selected andbrought to the front byright-clickingeachcircle,clicking Arrange, andthen clicking Bring toFront.Thehorizontaldi-ametermaybe includedor leftoff theplate.Onemore,atinyringwillbeusedtofillthespacebetweenthe80-de-gree almucantar circle and the Zenithpointat90degrees(Figure27).

Figure28showsthecroppedclimateplate,readytobelabeled.

LabelingtheClimatePlateHowyoulabelyourclimateplateisto

a large degree a matter of choice.Toomuch labelinggetscluttered,while toolittlecanleadtoextraworkwhileusingtheastrolabe.Thealmucantarcirclesarelabeled from 0 degrees at the Horizoncircle,to80degreesneartheZenith.Theplateusedasanexample,hasalmucan-tarsevery3degreesto60degrees,thenevery 5 degrees to 80 degrees. In thatcase,labelingevery12degreesto60de-grees, and every 10 degrees to 80 de-greeswouldwork.

The azimuths are labeled 0 degreeswestwheretheHorizoncirclemeetstheEquator circle on the right of your cli-mateplate.Ontheleft,itislabeled0de-grees east. Where the Horizon circlemeets the vertical line passing throughthecenteroftheplate,islabeled90de-greesnorth.

South,ofcourse, isoff thetopof the

Figure28CROPPEDCLIMATEPLATEBEFORELABELING

Figure27ANOTHERRINGFILLADDED


plate,but the topof theplate is90de-grees in the south direction. Figure 29showstheclimateplatelabeled.SinceIhave seasonal hours on my plate, I la-beled themclockwise from I toXI (seebelow).Figure30showstheclimateplateplacedontothefrontofthematerIcre-atedinPowerPoint.

SeasonalHoursAncientclimateplateshadotherarcs

onthemaswell.Oftentheyhadseasonalhour arcs filling the mostly empty areaundertheHorizoncircle.Thesedividedthe day or night into 12 equal parts,whose hour-lengths depended on theseason.RatherthanhavemorehoursofdaylightintheSummer, therewerejust12longerhoursofdaylight.

Conversely,the12hoursofnightwouldeachbeshorterbyaproportionalamount.Theselinesareoftencalledunequalhourlines,butabetternamemightbepropor-tionalhours,sinceeachhouroccupiesaproportional12thofthedayornight.An-cientastrolabesalsooftenhadinscribedonthemarcsrepresentingthe12housesofheavenusefultoastrologers.

Figure29showsanastrolabeclimateplatewiththeseasonalhoursmarkedin.Ifyouweretotakeaseriesofcirclesrep-resentinglatitudesbetweentheTropicsofCancerandCapricorn,allcutoffbythesweepof thearcof theHorizoncircle,and divide each of those many circlesinto 12 equal parts below the Horizoncircle(theEquatorwouldbe180degreesdividedby12,whichis15degreeseach),asetofsmootharcsconnectingthedivi-sionsfromtheTropicofCapricorntotheTropicofCancerwouldrepresentthe12seasonalhours.

Inpractice,thiscanbeaccomplishedverycloselybyjustdividingthethreecli-mate circles of the astrolabe plate intotheir12equalsegments,thenfindingcir-clesthatcontaineachsetof3pointsonthe circumferences.Thatworks fine forcompass and straightedge (and a gooderaser),butforPowerPoint,itleavesasetof arcsabove theclimatecircle,whichcannotberemovedbytheringmaneuverusedearlier.

Onecan,however,usethecurvelinetotraceoverthearcsoftheseasonalhourcirclesfromthetropicofCapricorntotheTropicofCancer.YoudothisbyselectingthecurvelineandclickingitattheTropicofCapricorn.

Movealittlesmoothlyalongthehour

Figure29CLIMATEPLATELABELED

Figure30MATERANDCLIMATEPLATECOMBINED

ASTRONOMYREPORT


line and click. Repeat that action untilyoureachthetropicofCancer.Thendou-ble click to release the line.A smoothcurveshouldappear.Formatthecurvetoyourspecificationsandmoveon to thenextarc.Afteryouhavecreatedyoursea-sonalhours,youcansimplyerasethecir-clesyouusedastemplates.

You’veMadeYourClimatePlate.NowWhat?

Now that you have created your cli-mateplatefortheastrolabe,youwillnodoubtwishtouseit.That,ofcourse,re-quires creating the mater front limbscales,therete(withusefulstars),aswellasat leastasimplifiedmaterbackwithscales.Youwillalsoneedtomakearuleforthefrontandanalidadefortheback.

Thesethingscanallbecreatedonthecomputer,andalmostallcanbecreatedusingPowerPoint,usingtechniquessimi-lartothoseyouhavealreadyusedtode-signtheclimateplate.

You are also most likely itching to

know how to use this device to solvemedievalproblemsrelatedtotime,sea-son,theSun,andthefixedstars.Luckiswithyou.Thereareseveralgoodweb-sitesfocussingontheastrolabe,butthebestIhavefoundis“TheAstrolabe.”Thisis a very useful site, where there is awealthofresourcesrelatedtotheastro-labe.

Oneveryfunpartofthesitepresentsthe Electric Astrolabe (one running oncomputercodeoftheDOSvariety).ThisisaveryinstructionalprogramforpeoplerunningWindowsXPorbelow.Forotheroperating systems, a DOS emulator,calledDOSBoxmustbeused.WiththeElectricAstrolabe,youcaneasilyfindoutwheretheplanetswillbeatchosentimesinthepastorfuture,justbyenteringyourdateandlocation.Itisawonderfultoolfor learninghow the astrolabeworks. Ihighly recommendthatyou tryout thisprogram.

Thepersonwhocreatedthissite,James

E. Morrison (Janus), has recently pub-lishedabookabouttheastrolabe,whichiswellworththemoney.Thisbook,TheAstrolabe (Classical Science Press), isverycomplete,givingthehistory,theas-tronomy,thetrigonometry,howtouseit,andevenhowtoconstructone.

Another resource I have found veryvaluable is the book, The History &PracticeofAncientAstronomy,byJamesEvans (Oxford University Press). Al-thoughonlyasmallportionofthebookdealswiththeastrolabe,perse,youcanlearnalotabouttheancientastronomythat informed the development of theastrolabe.ThefirstastrolabeIbuiltwasfrom instructions and templates in hisbook.

Finally,ifyoureallywishtoknowhowtheastrolabewasusedinmedievaltimes,treatyourselftoreadingChaucer’sTrea-tise on the Astrolabe, written around1391tohissoneLowis,a10-year-old.

Figure31THEALMOST-COMPLETEDASTROLABE

Thephotosillustrateasimpleastrolabeinthefinishingstagesofconstruction.Thematerfrontwithclimateplate,andthematerback,wereprintedontocardstockandgluedtoasturdycardboardcircle.Therete(asyetwithoutstarsandconstellations),wasprintedontoacetate.Thefrontrule(asyetwithoutdeclinationhatches),andthebackalidadewerecutfromcontainerplastic;cardstockwasgluedontop.Holeswerecarefullymadeinallthepartstoreceivetheboltandnut.

Atthetopoftheinstrument,anotherholewasmadetoreceiveaboltfromwhichtohangalanyard.Athumbcanbeinsertedthereinsotheastrolabecanbeheldatarmslengthtosightstarsandplanets.Oncethefrontrulehasbeenmarkedwithdecli-nationhatches,itcanbeusedinconjunctionwiththeastrolabeandanephemeristomarkprominentstars/constellationsontotherete,ifdesired.

ASTRONOMYREPORT


The Triassic Kraken hypothesis, pre-sented to the Geological Society of

AmericaatitsOctoberannualmeetinginMinneapolis (McMenamin and McMe-namin 2011), generated an enormousamount of attention on Internet media,immediatelyaftertheSociety’spressre-leaseannouncingthediscovery.

Nine gigantic ichthyosaurs are pre-served ina rock layerbelonging to theShalyLimestoneMemberof theLuningFormationattheIchthyosaurStateParkinNevada.Geologicalanalysisofthisfossilsitehadshownittobeadeepwaterde-posit (Holger 1992), thus invalidatingCamp’s (1980) original hypothesis thatthefossilbedrepresentedanichthyosaurmass-stranding event. Holger’s (1992)studyleftunexplained,however,howitcame tobe thatninegiantShonisaurusichthyosaurs sequentially accumulatedatvirtuallythesamespotontheTriassicseafloor.

Thispaleontologicalconundrumwascrying out for an unconventional newapproachtoattempttosolvetheprob-lem. McMenamin and McMenamin(2011)hypothesizedthattheninegigan-tic ichthyosaur fossils were capturedandtransportedbyagiganticcephalo-pod(“aTriassickraken”),thatkilledthemarine reptiles and thendragged theircarcassesbacktoitslair.Thegiantceph-alopod then proceeded to arrange thebones of its victims into almost geo-

metricpatterns,someofwhichresem-ble the sucker arrays on cephalopodtentacles.

A YouTube video from the SeattleAquarium, showing a Pacific Octopusattackingandkillingashark,lentwide-spread credence to the hypothesis. Todate,nearly250newsandanalysisarti-cles on the subject have appeared on-line.

TheTriassicKrakenhypothesisisinfactanextensionofthegreatSeilacherianre-searchprogram(namedfortherenownedGermanpaleontologistAdolf“Dolf”Sei-lacher)thatseestracefossilsasfossilizedbehavior. Once alerted to the new hy-pothesis, Seilacher seemed intriguedbythe Triassic kraken and noted that the

bone arrangement has indeed “neverbeenobservedatotherlocalities.”

Seilacher remarked that Jurassic ich-thyosaur skeletons in Germany, whichmayprovideanalogousexamples,occurin stagnant basin strata devoid of seaflooranimals.Suchsitesreceivedmostoftheir sedimentviamuddy turbiditycur-rents.(Aturbiditycurrentisadiluteun-derwatermudslide that formsadepositcalled a turbidite.)Ammonite fossils atthese sites are, on occasion, current-alignedinanotherwisequietwaterset-tinginabodyofstagnantwater.

Seilacherwonders,first,aretherefos-sils of seafloor animals associated withtheNevadanichthyosaurbones?Second,evenanentirelysoft-bodiedcephalopod

EVIDENCEFORATRIASSICKRAKEN

UnusualArrangementofBonesatIchthyosaurStateParkinNevadabyMarkA.S.McMenamin

GEOLOGY

DidagiantkrakendragninehugeichthyosaursbacktoitslairintheTriassicera,wheretheirfossilremainsarefound

today?Theauthorofthishypothesistellswhy

hethinksso.

Courtesy of Mark McMenamin

Shonisaurus ichthyosaurvertebraldisksat theBerlin-IchthyosaurStatePark inNe-vada,arranged incurious linearpatternswithalmostgeometric regularity.Thear-rangedvertebraeinthisSpecimen-Uresemblethepatternofsuckerdiscsonacepha-lopodtentacle,witheachvertebrastronglyresemblingacoleoidsucker.

GEOLOGY


wouldstillneedahornyjaw,andassum-ingthatitwasnotdestroyedbybacteria,mightitstillbepossibletofindafossilofitsbeak?Third,whydidthebonesnearthe critical Specimen-U bi-serial verte-bralarrayremainundisturbed,andcouldthearrangementpossiblybeduetocom-paction?

PossibleComparisonsThe strataof theShonisaurus-bearing

ShalyLimestoneMemberof theLuningFormationinNevadamightverywellbecompared to the famous Jurrasic fossilbeds near Holzmaden, Germany, buttheymightalsobecomparedtothemud-dy strata appearing as parallel-beddedlimemudstonesofLefkara,southernCy-prus.Stow(2006)interpretstheCypriotstrataasalternatingbetweendistalturbi-ditesandopen-watersedimentation(pe-lagites)inadeep-waterslopetobasinalsetting.

Referring to the Cypriot strata, Stow(2006,p.179)notesthat“thedistinctionbetween turbidite and pelagite is oftenverydifficult tomake ... as is thecasehere.”

SimilarconsiderationswouldapplytotheShalyLimestoneMemberoftheLun-ingFormation.Inanycase,thesedimen-tologyoftheShalyLimestoneMemberisincloseaccordwithadeeper-waterset-

ting. Essentially the same depositionalsettingisinferredforShonisaurusspeci-mens of Hound Island, southeasternAlaska(calledthedeep-waterFacies2byAdams[2009]).SedimentanalysisattheNevadapark indicates that thesitewasdeep, and that local marine depth hadbeenincreasingrightuptothetimethattheboneswereburied(Silberling1959).

We can now confidently rule out ashallowwaterenvironmentfortheBerlinIchthyosaurfossilsite.Turbiditeflowscanundoubtedlyalignammoniteremains,asseen in Germany and elsewhere, butwhether or not such deep water flowscould arrange large, dense ichthyosaurbonesintobi-serialaccumulationsseemshighlyunlikely.

Furthermore,thebi-serialvertebralar-rayinSpecimen-Uisinahydrodynami-callyunstablearrangement,regardlessofinferredcurrentdirection.

A simple geometrical proof demon-strates the hydrodynamic instability ofthe bi-serial array at Berlin IchthyosaurState Park with regard to currents fastenough to displace ichthyosaur verte-brae.CaseA is themosthydrodynami-cally stable.For the sakeofdiscussion,wewillconsidernorthtobeatthetopoftheimage.Onlycurrentsfromthenorth-eastandthesouthwest,ofsufficientforcetodisplace ichthyosaurvertebralcentra(arelativelydensebonetype,shapedlikea hockey puck), have much chance ofdisplacingthebones,andonlytheonesontheendsofthearrayareinmuchdan-gerofthusbeingdisplaced.

Therosediagramshowsanarrowbandofcompetentcurrents,withthecenterofthe diagram representing the strongest

currentsandtheperimeterofthediagramrepresenting the weakest currents thatcouldmoveavertebralcentra.

CaseBhasadanglingvertebralcentraonitsbottomend,henceit issafe fromdisplacementonlyfromarelativelynar-row wedge of current directions thatcomefromnorthofthearrayandwouldflowaroundthearraylikecurrentsmov-ingalongthestreamlinedbodyofafish.Inthiscasethedanglingvertebraisrough-lystreamlinedlikethetailofthefish.

CaseCisthearrayactuallyseenatBer-linIchthyosaurasSpecimen-U.Withdan-glingvertebraeatbothends,anycompe-tentcurrent (be it fromturbiditycurrentinflux,shelf-edgecontourcurrents,etc.),fromanydirection, is going todisplaceoneormoreofthebones;hencetheen-tirerosediagramisfilledin.

Hence, it is virtually impossible thatcurrentsarrangedthebi-serialarrayseeninSpecimen-U.Thisdemonstrationcon-siderscurrentsthatarelinearintermsoftheirtrajectory.Non-linearcurrents,suchas swirling currentsor gyres,wouldbeevenlesslikelytoformthebi-serialarrayseenincaseC(Specimen-U).

ProbabilityofDisplacementThisdemonstrationcanalsobegiven

intermsofprobabilities.Theprobabilityofdisplacement(PD),ortendencytodis-placement,bycurrentsinarandomsetofdirections, in CaseA, is approximatelyPD=60/360=1/6=0.167=17percent.TheprobabilityofdisplacementinCaseBisPD=320/360=8/9=0.889=89percent.The probability in Case C, theactualcase,isPD=1.0=100percent.

Onceagain, theprobability that cur-rentsassembledtheNevadaarrayisvir-

The kraken, a colossal octopus, in an1801 Century drawing by Pierre Dénysde Montfort, based on descriptions byFrenchsailors.

GEOLOGY

ROSEDIAGRAMSHOWINGPOSSIBLECURRENTSANDRESULTINGVERTEBRALARRAYS


tuallyzero.Evenintheunlikelyeventoftwo spiral current bores, of the typeknown to be responsible for formingelongate grooves, called flute casts, ontheseafloor,thathappenedtoconvergealongacenterlinetopushmaterialtotheboundarybetweenthespiralingcurrents(analogoustotheconvergingcirculationcellsintheSargassoSea),CaseCwouldstillbeimpossiblebecausewewouldex-pectthedanglingvertebraeonbothendsofthepatterntoalignalongaboundaryline(orlineofsymmetryalongthelong

axis),andwhatweseeinsteadisthattheyaredisplacedtotheleftside.

Thus, there isvirtuallynopossibilitythatcurrentsformedCaseC.Thetrian-gularneckvertebraononeendof theSpecimen-Uarrayisinaparticularlypre-cariousposition,withonlyonepointofcontactwithanadjacentcentraandtwocornersofthetriangleexposedtotorqueby current flow. The likelihood of theneck vertebra being displaced by cur-rentisparticularlyhigh,especiallycon-sidering itspositionononeendof the

Specimen-Uarray.Eachindividualdiscinthearrayisem-

beddedintothematrix,andtherearenoassociatedexternalcastsofnearbydiscs,therefore no discs were removed fromthearraysubsequenttofossilization.

SeafloorAnimalFossilsThequestionofinsituseaflooranimal

fossils in associationwith theNevadanbonesisanimportantone.Seafloorani-malfossilsarerareatthesite,althoughsome brachiopods and/or halobiid bi-valveshavebeenreportedfromthishori-zon in the Luning Formation. No tracefossilburrowsareknownfromtheFossilHouseQuarry,butintheabsenceofsan-dyturbiditelayerstocasttheunderlyingtraces, thesewouldnotbe expected tofossilize.

The depositional setting may havebeenonethatexperiencedreducedoxy-genlevels,assomeorganicmatterisvis-ible in therock thinsections.Theenvi-ronment, however, was evidently notgreatly anoxic, because the mudstonesandmicrites are light in color.Modernvampiresquids(Vampyroteuthis)areableto thrive at dissolved oxygen levels aslowas3percent.

GiantCretaceoussquids(suchasTus-oteuthis), reaching lengths of up to 11meters, are assigned to the vampiresquids because of similarities in theshape of their pen (gladius) to that ofVampyroteuthis. Thus, somewhat re-ducedoxygenlevelswouldnotnecessar-ilyhaveposedasignificantchallengeforthe hypothesized Triassic Kraken, al-though we do not know exactly what

www.ucmp.berkeley.edu

AnexhibitattheBerlin-IchthyosaurStateParkwherevisitorscanviewanexposedbonebedsurface.

DrawingofichthyosaursbyWilliamHuff,depictingCharlesCamp’s1980hypothesisthattheywerestrandedatthesiteinlowtide.Alaterstudyshowed,however,thatthiswasadeepwatersite,invalidatingtheCamphypothesis.

GEOLOGY


typeofcephalopod thiscreature repre-sented.Interestingly,thequestionofan-oxic versus aerobic conditions and theHolzmaden, Germany strata are still atopicofdebate.

The kraken would have indeed re-quired hard jaws, and plans are underwaytosearchtheLuningFormationforsuch remains.There is a possibility forsuccess in this effort, as a calcareousnodule from Wakkaweenbetsu Creek,Hokkaido, Japanhasalreadyproducedan enormous Cretaceous cephalopodupperjawassignedtothespeciesYezo-teuthis giganteus by Tanabe et al.(2006).

Withasearchimagenowinhand,thechances of finding a giant cephalopodbeakintheLuningFormationaredramat-icallyenhanced.Modernoctopiwillkillsharksanduse theirbeaks topluck theflesh off of the shark’s remains, leavingbehindacartilaginousvertebralcolumnthatratherresemblesthelong,relativelyintactichthyosaurvertebralcolumnsseenatBerlinIchthyosaurStatePark.

Regarding the question of sedimentcompaction, the process can certainlyleadto“bedparallelalignmentandmoreclose-spaced packing” (Stow 2006, p.102) of the particles of fine sediment.Compaction processes would tend toflattentheorientationofvertebraldiscs,especially if they restedona relativelyresistant,hard,smoothsurface.Howev-er,compactionprocessesdonotappeartobecapableofcausingdiscstomove

laterally to form an organized bi-serialarray.

Inconclusion,theTriassicKrakenhy-pothesishassurvivedallteststodate,in-cludingthecurrentdisplacementproba-bilitytestperformedhere,andisthustheleadingexplanationfortheotherwiseun-explained arrangement of ichthyosaurbonesatBerlinIchthyosaurStateParkinNevada.

TheauthorisProfessorofGeologyatMount Holyoke College in the Depart-mentofGeologyandGeography.Hisre-search isprimarily focussedonpaleon-tology,particularlytheEdiacaranbiota.

References___________________________T.L. Adams, 2009. “Deposition and taphonomy of

the Hound Island Late Triassic vertebrate fauna: Fossil preservation within subaqueous gravity flows.” Palaios Vol. 24, No. 9, pp. 603-615.

C.L. Camp, 1980. “Large ichthyosaurs from the Up-per Triassic of Nevada.” Paleontographica, Ab-teilung A., Vol. 170, pp. 139-200.

J.A. Hogler, 1992. “Taphonomy and paleoecology of Shonisaurus popularus (Reptilia: Ichthyosauria). Palaios, Vol. 7, pp. 108-117.

M.A.S. McMenamin and D.L. Schulte McMenamin, 2011. “Triassic Kraken: The Berlin Ichthyosaur death assemblage interpreted as a giant cepha-lopod midden.” Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 43, No. 5, p. 310.

N.J. Silberling, 1959. “Pre-Tertiary stratigraphy and Upper Triassic paleontology of the Union Dis-trict, Shoshone Mountains, Nevada.” Geological Survey Professional Paper, Vol. 322, pp. 1-67.

D.A.V. Stow, 2006. Sedimentary Rocks in the Field: A Color Guide (London: Academic Press), 320 pp.

K. Tanabe, Y. Hikida, and Y. Iba, 2006. “Two coleoid jaws from the Upper Cretaceous of Hokkaido, Japan.” Journal of Paleontology, Vol. 80, No. 1, pp. 138-145.

GEOLOGY

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Forthefirsttimein62years,theannualCongressoftheInterna-

tionalAstronauticalFederationwasheld on the continent of Africa.More than 2,000 scientists, engi-neers,andstudents,includinghun-dredsfromhalfofAfrica’snations,travelledtoCapeTown,SouthAf-rica,Oct.3-7,2011,todiscussthelatest developments in space sci-ence, technology, and applica-tions.Thereisnocontinent,manyspeakersemphasized,facinggreat-erchallengesthanAfrica.Andnocontinentwherespacetechnologycouldmakeamoredramaticposi-tivedifferencetothefuture.

Although South Africa is themosteconomicallydevelopedandscientifically advanced nation inAfrica,allofthespeakersfromthehostcountrystressedthattheCon-gresswasbeingheldforthebenefitof,andbyinvitationof,allofAfrica.Attheopeningceremonyof theCongress,Dr.SandileMalinga,headof theSouthAfricanNationalSpaceAgency(SANSA),extendedhiswelcome“fromtheheadsofthespaceagenciesofAfrica.”

Although South Africa itself has hadspacescienceandastronomyeffortsgo-ingbackdecades,andmorethanade-cadeofspacetechnologydevelopment,SANSAitselfisonlysixmonthsold.SouthAfricaisintheprocessofgainingapprov-alofamulti-yearplan.

At present, a number of African na-tions are using data from space-basedEarth-orbitingsatellitestobringascien-tific dimension to decision-making forbuilding transportation infrastructure,monitoring agriculture, assessing waterresources,recoveringfromnaturaldisas-ters,trackingdisease,andotherapplica-tions.Ahandful—principally, SouthAf-rica and Nigeria—are working towardsbuildingtheirownsatellites,todevelop

anindependentandmoreaffordableal-ternativetohardwareandsoftwarefromabroad,andtobeabletotailorsatellitetechnologytotheirspecificneeds.Multi-nation science projects are under wayandarebeingplanned todevelopAfri-ca’s scientificand technicalmanpower,and to contribute to global scientificachievements.

AnEarth-ObservingConstellationAfrica,thesecond-largestcontinentin

area,hasapopulationofabout1billionpeople,themajorityofwhomlivewith-outthemostbasiceconomicinfrastruc-ture,includingelectricity,transportation,cleanwater,andadequateeducationandhealthcare.NationalleadersarelookingtowardtheuseofdatafromEarth-orbit-ing resource-monitoring satellites andspace-based communications capabili-tiesforproblem-solving.Allofthespeak-ersstressedthatthiscanonlybedoneef-fectively through a continent-wideeffort.

TheweekbeforetheInternationalAs-

tronauticalCongress (IAC)meeting,Ke-nya hosted the 4th African LeadershipConferenceonSpaceScienceandTech-nology for Sustainable Development inMombasa. The timing was not coinci-dental;thethemeofthatconferencewas“BuildingaSharedVisionforSpaceinAf-rica,”andwaspreparatorytothediscus-sionsthefollowingweekinCapeTown.ThegovernmentleadersatMombasade-clared theircommitment toextendandbroadenAfrica’sparticipationin,anduti-lizationof,spacescienceandtechnolo-gy.

In2009,Algeria,Nigeria,Kenya,andSouth Africa established the Africa Re-sourceMonitoringConstellation(ARMC),toconsistoffourmicro-satellitestaskedwithEarthobservation,fromwhichdatawouldbefreelysharedamongthemem-bers.AttheIACmeeting,representativesfromtheARMCnationsexplainedwhy,withthedozensofEarth-observingsatel-litesalreadyinorbit,anAfricanconstel-lation is necessary. From the practical

LookingtotheHeavensToDevelopAfricabyMarshaFreeman

SPACEREPORT

SPACE REPORT: SOUTH AFRICA

© SKA South Africa

ThreeofSouthAfrica’sKarooArrayTelescopes,orMeerKAT,amid-frequency‘pathfinder’ordemonstratorradiotelescope.InsetistheCongressbanner.

60 Winter2011-2012 21stCenturyScience&Technology SPACEREPORT

standpoint,theheadofSANSA,Dr.Malinga,explained,ittakesnine days for one satellite tocovertheentirecontinent.Thisisgrossly inadequate tomoni-torchangesinrealtime,suchasdisasters, the spread of cropdisease, changing water re-sources, and many other fac-tors. With a constellation offoursatellites,optimizedforAf-ricancoverage,hesaid,1,000imagesadaycanbetaken.

Duringthelastsessionoftheweek-long Congress, KonradWessels,principalresearcheratthe Council for Scientific andIndustrialResearchofSouthAf-rica, cited the importance ofdatabecomingmoreaffordableto Africa’s decision-makers,farmers,andcitizens.“Itwouldcost$40,000 tobuy three im-ages” of Africa from foreigncommercial companies, hesaid. With an African system, the datawillbefree.

Dr.SeiduOneiloMohammed,headoftheNationalSpaceResearchandDevel-opmentAgencyofNigeria,expressedtheproblemas “more than$100billionof‘capitalflight’tobuyservices”abroad,inordertohaveaccesstoandutilizespacedata.Nigeria’sgoal,hesaid,istoreducethatby50percentinthenext10years,by creating its own capabilities, whichwill“createjobsandsocialstability.”Ni-geria’s 5-year roadmap is to work withpartnersinsatellitebuildingandsystems,thenincreasethelocalinputforthesatel-lites, and later, build satellites them-selves.

So far, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, andEgypt have operating Earth-observationsatellites.TheweekbeforetheCapeTownCongress, Malinga announced that theSouthAfricanspaceagencywillaskthegovernmenttofundthedesignandcon-structionofaSouthAfricansatellite, tojointheconstellation.Hecitedtheneedtoreducethecountry’s“high-technologytrade deficit,” stressing that the projectwould also excite SouthAfrican youth.Thenewsatelliteisestimatedtocostintherangeof400millionrand(morethan$55million),whichismorethan10timesthecost,andcapability,oftheirpreviousSumbandilaprototypeEarth-observationsatellite.

Sofar,SouthAfricahastakentheleadin developing the skills to design andbuild its own satellites, which requirescreatinganentirelynewspaceindustry.“Noleaderintheworldhassucceededindeveloping[hisorhercountry]withoutimproving[its]manufacturingcapacity,”observedProf.HenryKaane,SecretaryofHigherEducation,Science,andTechnol-ogyinKenya.HecitedIndia,China,andKorea as examples.As is true in everyspace-faring nation, the exacting de-mandsofspacetechnologyraisetheskill,technology level, and productivitythroughouttheeconomy.

Withthisinitiative,Africawillbeableto develop the capabilities in Africa tocollectdatafromsatellites,interpretdatatocreateusefulinformation,learntode-sign,build,andoperatesatellitesindige-nously,and, in the future, launch themfromAfricansoil.Eachstepof thispro-gression requires the acquisition of in-creasingly complex and advanced sci-ence, engineering, and manufacturingskills.

SouthAfrica:ChallengesandProgress

SouthAfrica isacountryofdramaticcontrasts.Itishosttothemostadvancedradio telescope in the Southern Hemi-sphere,butisstrugglingtoovercome400yearsofsubjugationofthegreatmajority

of itspeoplebytwoEuropeanempires,andnearly35yearsoftheforcedsegre-gationoftheracesunderapartheid.ItistheonlynationinAfricatooperateanu-clearpowerplant,butatthesametime,55 percent of its rural population, andmore than12.5millionpeople in total,have no access to electricity. It is theleadingnationintheworldinproducingradioactive isotopes, critical for ad-vancedmedicaldiagnosisandtreatment,whilemillionsofnon-whiteSouthAfri-cansliveinhovelsmadeofscrapmetal,in“informalsettlements,”withnoelec-tricityorrunningwater.

National unemployment is about aquarter of the 50 million population,withblackyouthunemploymentdoublethat figure.The Afrikaner government’sapartheidpolicyofthesecondhalfofthe20thCentury left thenationwitha5:1differentialinspendingforwhitesversusblacks in education.Although the gov-ernmentspendsabout18percentof itstotalbudgetoneducation, itwill likelytake a generation or more to eliminatethatinequality.

In1994,thefirstdemocraticallyelect-edgovernmentfacedalmostinsurmount-ablechallenges,whilethousandsofthewell-educated whites, who could havecontributedcriticalhelpinrebuildingthecountry, left. Nelson Mandela’s policythat therebereconciliation,notretalia-tion,astheapartheidgovernmentleftof-

William Jones/EIRNS

AtthefirstspaceCongresstobeheldonthecontinentofAfrica,leadersoffiveAfricanspaceagenciesdescribedthespaceprogramsandtheaspirationsoftheirnations.Secondfromleft:SeiduOneiloMohammed,Nigeria;SandileMalinga,SouthAfrica;HarryKaane,Kenya;andTahorIftene,Algeria.Atthemicrophone,isMustaphaMasmoudi,Tunisia.


fice,likelysavedSouthAfricafromaciv-ilwar.

The government of South Africa iscommittedtoupliftingthe80percentofthepopulationthathadbeenheldinvir-tual slavery since colonial rule. It haspledgedtoincreaseliteracyfromthecur-rent levelof82percent; tocontinue tobulldoze the “informal settlements” asthey are replaced with decent housingandbasicinfrastructure;tocreate5mil-lionnewjobs,by2020.

Butevenwithitsgreatrichesinminer-

alsandrawmaterials,SouthAf-ricacannotescapetheinterna-tionalfinancialblowoutwhichis now bringing world trade,along with South Africa’s ex-ports,toahalt.Lastyear,SouthAfrica lost53,000manufactur-ingjobs,andtheprojectedeco-nomicgrowthrateforthisyearisdowntoabout3percent.Inordertocreatethejobsrequired,itises-timatedthatatleasta7percentannualrealgrowthrateisneeded.

AndSouthAfrica,withallof itsownchallenges, lives in a neighborhoodwhere people suffering from drought,famine,andcivilwarareflockingtothe“greenerpastures”ofthatnation,thankstoitsopen-doorpolicy.Asquicklyasthe

William Jones/EIRNS

William Jones/EIRNS

Groups of attentive schoolchildren crowdedaround the Congress exhibits on the day it wasopentothepublic.

NASA/JPL/NIMA

CapeTown and the Cape of Good Hope,SouthAfrica, are in the foregroundof thisperspectiveview,whichwasgeneratedfromaLandsatsatelliteimageandelevationdatafromtheShuttleRadarTopographyMission.ThecitycenterislocatedatTableBay(lowerleft),adjacenttothe3,563-footTableMoun-tain. Inset is theSumbandilasatellite initstestingphase.

SPACEREPORT


government is building housing for thepoorestofitspopulation,newarrivalstothe“informalsettlements”makeitmoredifficult to attain the rate of progress ithasplanned.

But democratic SouthAfrica also in-herited a scientific and technologicallegacywhichhasbeendeployedtoupliftthatnation,andAfricamorebroadly.

ScientificOrientationWhileit isfocussedoninvestmentin

housing, education, transportation, en-ergy, health care, and other basic eco-nomicinfrastructure,thegovernmentofSouth Africa intends to use all of theavailable resources it has to accelerateprogress.Inthis,itsemphasison,andde-ploymentofresourcesintoscientificad-vancement,education,anddevelopmentisextraordinary.

Priorto1994,leading-edgespaceandrockettechnologyandnuclearprogramswereunderdevelopmentasmilitaryproj-ects.TheAfricanNationalCongress-ledgovernmentabandoned theseprogramsafter 1994.More recently, andwith animpetus from the scientific community,universities, and industry, the govern-menthasplacedanewemphasisonle-veraging its humancapital andbaseofhightechnologyskillstoinitiatenationalscience and technology programs as adriverandenabler for leapfroggingintothefuture.

In1999,SouthAfricabecamethefirstcountrytosendamicrosatellite,weighing

64 kilograms (about 140 pounds), intoEarthorbit.SunSatwasdesigned,assem-bled, and operated by faculty and stu-dentsintheelectricalengineeringdepart-ment at the University of Stellenbosch,andwaslaunchedbytheUnitedStates.

Using data from foreign satellites,SouthAfrica developed the capacity tointerpretandmakeuseofEarth-observa-tionimagery.Inoneexample,fiveyearsago, the Satellite Applications Centre,now SANSA (South African NationalSpaceAgency)EarthObservation,beganusingsatellitedatatocreateamulti-yeardatabasetodocumentthestateof“infor-malsettlements,”fortheDepartmentofHuman Settlements in the North WestProvince. By comparing new housingdeliveryrateswithsettlementgrowth,thegovernment is able to more accuratelyidentifyandtrackthehousinggap.

Building on the country’s experienceandskill,andrecognizingthevalueofanAfrican-designed and -owned Earth re-mote-sensing satellite, the governmentcommissioned SunSpace—a companyspunofffromtheUniversity—tobuildalarger, prototype Earth observing satel-lite,Sumbandila,whichmeans“leadtheway.” The R26 million ($3.7 million)Sumbandila satellite was launched in2009,andcollectedimagesoftheEarthfortwoyears.

Thenextstep,asoutlinedinlateSep-temberbyDr.SandileMalinga,theheadofthenewSouthAfricanNationalSpace

Agency,isSumbandila-2,anoperationalEarth observing satellite, projected tocost approximately R400 million ($52million),andoperateaspartoftheAfri-canResourceManagementConstellation(ARMC).

ThegovernmentofSouthAfricaisalsoconsidering resurrecting the rocket test-and-launchfacilitiesattheOverbergTestRange,whichhadbeendevelopedinthe1980s, to launch an Earth-observing/re-connaissance satellite for the military.Thatprogramalso created satellite inte-grationandtestfacilities,andsomeindus-trialcapabilities,whicharenowdeployedfor thecivilianspaceprogram.A rocketlaunchfacilityattheOverbergsitewouldbethefirstoneontheAfricancontinent.

OvercomingAfro-PessimismOneofthemostimportantreasonsthat

the government of South Africa hasplaced such a prominent emphasis onpromotingadvancementsandcontribu-tionstospacesciencewasexpressedbyDr. Malinga at the CapeTown interna-tional space conference (see accompa-nying interview).The practical applica-tionsofspacetechnologyinagriculture,communications, long-distance learn-ing,weatherforecasting,health,disastermanagement, infrastructure planning,andalltherest,willallowSouthAfricatocompressitstimelineofeconomicdevel-opment.

But it is science, which Dr. Malingadescribedas“imaginationandwonder,”whichjustifieshisgovernment’sexpendi-

Stellenbosch University

SouthAfrica’sfirstsatellite,SUNSAT,waslaunched by the United States in 1999and operated for two years. It was de-signedandrunbytheUniversityofStel-lenboschasaresearchanddevelopmentprogram.NowSouthAfricaisconsider-ingdevelopmentofanindigenouslaunchcapability.

William Jones/EIRNS

TheSouthAfricangovernmentisbuildingnewhousingtoreplacethe“informal”set-tlements.Here,newhomessurroundoldshantytownhousing.


turesonprojectssuchastheSquareKilo-meterArray.

Inherinterview(seebelow),MinisterofScienceandTechnologyNiladiPandorexpressedtheneedtomoveforward,andovercome “Afro-pessimism.”That is theintention of the South African govern-ment.Buttheacceleratingglobalfinan-cial crisis and collapse of, most pro-foundly, the European and Americaneconomies, will make that impossible.When America returns to being “thecountry that inspires us,” as Pandor re-called,SouthAfricawillbepositionedtocontributeto,andbenefitgreatlyfrom,anewallianceamongnationsbasedupongreat global economic projects. SouthAfricaalsowillplayacriticalroleinthedevelopmentofallofsub-SaharanAfri-ca.

SouthAfrica’sWorld-ClassTelescopes

SouthAfricahasmorethana70-yearhistoryinworld-classspacescienceproj-ects.ItstelescopesaretheprimefacilitiesforlookingintospacefromtheSouthernHemisphere.These include theHerma-nusMagneticObservatory,which takesadvantage, throughcontinent-widecol-laboration, of the fact that the Earth’s

magnetic equator passes through themiddleofAfrica.Themagneticallyquietenvironment of the observatory is pro-tected,asthescientistsmeasureminutechangesinthemagneticfieldoftheEarth,and the effect of solar activity on ourspaceweather.

Dr. Lee-Anne McKinnell, of SANSASpaceScienceanddirectoroftheObser-vatory, explained at the Congress, thatthrough her program, students fromthroughoutAfricaarebeingtrained,withexchangevisitsamongstudentsfromKe-nya,Nigeria, andZambia.TheHerma-nusObservatoryhasbeenleadingtheef-forttocollectgeophysicaldatainAfrica,the science of which was largely un-known on the continent until recently.TheSouthAfricanAstronomicalObser-vatoryandtheHartebeethoekRadioAs-tronomy Observatory are operated bythe National Research Foundation ofSouthAfrica.

SouthAfricahasrecentlyundertakenaveryambitiousprojecttobuild64radioastronomydishesinanarray,tobecom-pleted between 2016-17.The first tele-scope dishes of the Karoo Array Tele-scope,orMeerKAT,arenowbeingtestedto be commissioned. When complete,MeerKATwillbethemostsensitiveradiotelescope in the Southern Hemisphere,

andthesecondintheworld.Theprojecthasrequirednew,cutting-

edge technology. For this reason, al-though scientific observations will notbeginuntil2016,some500astronomersworldwidehavealreadyappliedfortimeon the telescopes. Even South Africanpostgraduates currently in the UnitedStatesplantocomebacktodoadvancedresearch,Dr.BernieFanaroffsaidattheCongress.

But MeerKAT is seen as a “dress re-hearsal” for a truly gigantic project thescientists hope will rewrite what weknowaboutthecosmos.AttheCongress,Dr.FanaroffannouncedthatonSept.15,2011, thefinalproposalwas submittedbySouthAfricaandeightotherAfricannations to the international astronomycommunity,tobuildtheSquareKilome-terArray (SKA) radioastronomyprojectinSouthAfrica.Todemonstrate itssup-portforthisenormousandhighlyambi-tiousproject, theSouthAfricangovern-mentcreatedaspecialcabinetpositionforSKA.Fanaroffistheprojectmanager.

SouthAfricaiswellsituatedasthesitefortheproject,Fanaroffexplained,asitcreated a “radio astronomy reserve,”throughtheNorthCapeProvinceAstron-omyGeographicAdvantageAct,whichprohibitsanyactivitythatwouldinterferewith radio astronomy. Internet connec-tions are only fiber optic, for example.Andnocellphones.

TheSKAwillconsistofupto3,000ra-dio astronomy dishes which could bespreadalloverAfrica,overthousandsofkilometers.Thefartheraparttheyare,thehighertheprecisionoftheobservations.ThepartnerswithSouthAfricainthebidfortheSKAprojectareNamibia,Ghana,Kenya,Madagascar,Mauritius,Mozam-bique,andZambia,anditishopedthateachwouldhoststations,withtheSouthAfricasiteatthecore.

The SKA is designed to be 50 timesmoresensitiveand10,000timesfasterindataprocessingthanthebestradiotele-scope today. It is estimated that it willcostabout$2billiontobuild,fundedbyaU.K.-basedconsortiumwhichcouldbemadeupofabout16nations.TheSKAshouldbeinoperationby2024.

Inorder todevelop the leading-edgetechnologies that will be required tobuild, operate, and coordinate theSquareKilometerArray’s3,000radioan-tennas (witha total surfaceareaof the

SKA Africa

SKA Africa

An artist’s depiction ofthe Karoo Array Tele-scope, or MeerKAT, anarrayof64radioastrono-my dishes, to be com-pleted in 2016-2017.Whenoperational,Meer-KATwillbethemostsen-sitive radio telescope inthe Southern Hemi-sphere. Inset:Dr.BernieFanaroff, MeerKAT proj-ectdirector.

SPACEREPORT


dishes of 1 km) which will be spreadover 1,000-km distances, the govern-mentembarkedonaprecursorradioas-tronomyprogram,whichisnowcomingtofruition.

TheAfricannationspreparingthepro-posalfortheSKAhaveworkedonitsince2003, with about 100 young scientistsandengineersworkingon theproposalintheCapeTownoffice.Fanaroffisespe-cially proud that 300 grants for studiesandfiveuniversityresearchchairshavebeencreatedinSouthAfricathroughthisproposalpreparationprocess.Therehavebeen25Ph.D.’sand52Mastersdegreesgranted,onthebasisofresearchdoneon

theproject.AndastronomyisnowbeingtaughtinBotswana,Ghana,Kenya,Mo-zambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, andZambia.

Most important, Fanaroffbelieves, isthat theprojecthas “raised the scienceandtechnologyprofile”inSouthAfrica,andalsoinEuropeandothercountries,”whichnowsee“thatAfricacandocut-tingedgescienceandtechnology.”

Africa’s only competitors for hostingthe SKA project areAustralia and NewZealand.Thedecisiononwhichsitewillbe chosen will come early next year.FanaroffwasaskedinaCongresssession,whatifAfricaisnotchosenfortheSKA?

Andhowcouldhejustifytheamountofmoneythatwillhavetobespent?

We will complete MeerKAT, he re-plied,and“doworld-classsciencefor50years”usingthatfacility.“Wewilldore-markablescience”byalsoexpandingtheuseofothertelescopesinAfrica,and“wewillplayaleadingroleinSKA,nomatterwhereitisbuilt.”

“Thereareshort-termproblems”inAf-rica, he responded, “butwecan’t limitourselves”tothose.Astronomyis“inher-entlyaveryexcitingsubject.Wearecre-atingthecadrewhoaretransformingthewayAfricaseesitself,andisseenaroundtheworld.”

SouthAfricanMinisterofScienceandTechnology,NalediPandor,isapassion-ate supporter of scientific and techno-logical progress for her country. She isthe former Minister of Education ofSouthAfrica,andaMemberoftheNa-tionalExecutiveCommitteeof theAfri-canNationalCongress.Since1994,shehasbeenaMemberofParliament.Min-isterPandor receiveddegrees, and fur-theredhereducation,at theUniversityofBotswanaandSwaziland,theUniver-sityofLondon,BrynMawr,theKennedySchoolofGovernment,andtheUniver-sity of Stellenbosch. She is responsiblefor a sweeping array of scientific pro-grams,forwhichsheisanardentpro-ponent.

In order to educate the Parliament,which must approve federal programbudgets, the Ministry prepared a pam-phlet,explainingtheimportanceofSouthAfrica’s radio astronomy projects, andwhyitisbiddingtohosttheSquareKilo-meterArray(SKA).

Withscientificadvancementasalead-ingedge,theMinisterisdedicatedtotheeducation of both citizens and policy-makers,andexpressestheoptimismthatSouth Africa will continue to lead thecontinentintothespaceage.

Pandor, who addressed the CongressoftheInternationalAstronauticalFedera-tion,inCapeTownOct.3-7,2011,wasinterviewedbyMarshaFreemanandWil-liamJones.Hereareexcerpts.

21stCentury: Itwasveryclear fromyour statements at the Congress, thatthe government of South Africa hasmade a very serious commitment forspace technology and development,and,ofcourse,youhaveacountrythatfacesmanychallenges,suchasineduca-tionandemployment.CouldyoutelluswhyyouthinkthatthespaceprogramisimportantforSouthAfrica?

Pandor:Well,weneedtogobackalit-tlebit.WhenSouthAfricaachievedde-mocracyin1994,Ithinkthecountryhadtoreflectonwhatitneededtodo.Andatthetime,thenewgovernmentwasawarethatwehadafairlystrongscientificbase.ButIthinkitbelievedthatitmustfocusonthesocio-economicdevelopmentis-sues, and therefore tended primarily tohighlighteducation,health,issuesofeq-uity.Thosewereparamount, I think, in

themindoftheSouthAfricanpopulaceatthattime.

AndsowhilewewerereallyfortunatethatMr.[Nelson]Mandela’sgovernmentestablishedaDepartmentofScienceandTechnology in 1994, the problem wassomewhatthatitwasmergedwithanoth-er department. So we had somethingcalled Arts, Science, and Technology,then.Andgiventhesocio-economiccon-cerns,artsandculture tended todomi-natethediscourseofthatdepartment.

But our scientists, I think, were verystrong,inthattheyworkedtoformulateastrategyforthecountry.Theydidafore-sightstudylikethedecadalreviewbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesthatyouhaveintheUnitedStates,andsetoutaresearchanddevelopmentstrategywhichwas adopted by government in 1996,andcontinuestoinfluenceagreatdealofthe work we even do up to now. So IthinkthatphaseassistedtheAfricanNa-tionalCongress to continue tohave aninterestandanobjectiveofinvestinginscienceandtechnology.

Betweentheperiodbetween1996,upto 2004, we continued with that con-joineddepartment;butasmattersdevel-oped,itbecameclearthatsciencewasofsuch importance that it needed its owndepartment,itneededitsownbudget,anditneededamuchmoredefinitivestrategywhich would highlight what had beendonein1996,liftitout,andreallybeginto tie into new developments that had

INTERVIEW:NALEDIPANDOR

SouthAfricainSpace:Ending‘Afro-Pessimism’


emergedinthatperiodofeightorsoyears.ADepartmentofScienceand

TechnologySo in 2004, after the elections, the

ANCdecidedtoestablishastand-aloneDepartmentofScienceandTechnology.Sowe’reanewdepartmentasa stand-alone,althoughitexistedsince’96.Thatnewdepartmentwaschargedwithdeter-mininganewinnovationpolicyforSouthAfrica.Buildingontheresearchandde-velopmentstrategybutdrawingonwhathadbeenlearntsincedemocracy.

In2007,theyputbeforetheGovern-menta10-yearinnova-tion plan with five keyfocus areas identified.Now in the plan, theyindicated that we’vebeenclearlyallright,asto investing in funda-mental scientific re-search and develop-ment activity. So ourscientistshavebeenre-ceiving grants, andwhilenotenough,mon-ies have been flowing;our science councilshave been productive.On the basic sciencelevel,we’reallright.

Butwehadproblemswithrespect tohumancapital,andwe’rereallynotdo-ingaswellasweshouldwithrespecttoinnovation.We’reproducingbasicscien-tificoutcomes,butwerenotconvertingthemintoaproductthatcanbecommer-cialized.Wedidn’thavetheinstitutionalbaseforthat,andwe’renotinvesting.Theprivatesectoristraditionallynotventure-capital-oriented in this country, so theGovernmentdecidedwehadtodosome-thing.Hence,a10-yearinnovationplanforscienceandtechnology,whichiden-tifiedfivekeyfocusareaswhichyouhearusalltalkingabout.

Thefirstisspacescienceandastrono-my: very, very important, because theyrealized there are opportunities there,but also,wehave capabilities in SouthAfrica.Thesecondisbiotechnology,andthatlinkedintoourwholeproblemofthediseaseburdeninSouthAfricaandinAf-rica,andaveryproductivehealthscienc-esacademiccontingentinSouthAfrica.

Asyouknow,thefirsthearttransplantwascarriedouthere,soourhumanandhealthsciencesfacultiestendtobequite,

quite productive. Sobiotechnology is thesecondarea.

The third area wasenergy, because theGovernment was con-cernedthatwewerenotdoing enough for re-newables, that we’retoo reliant on fossil-based energy sources,andthus,we’recontrib-utingtoallthehorriblegases in the atmo-

sphere, andneeded to change thewayweresourceenergy.

The fourth area was climate change.And there, they call it actually globalchange,buttheprimaryfocusisclimatechange, to look at what technologiesshouldwedevelopinordertounderstandwhat is happening to the world better,fromaSouthern,ratherthanaglobalper-spective.Andthentheglobalviewwouldbelinkingintoothersciences,andreallydeveloping our geo-spatial understand-ingoftheworldandourabilitytomonitorclimatechangeandlearnfromothersys-tems.Andthenalsotoimprovethesearchwithrespecttothesouthernoceansandunderstanding the southern currentsmuchbetterthanwedouptothispoint.Soglobalchangeisafourthdimension.

Thefifthone,which,ImustadmitIamone of the people who added, was thehumanandsocialdynamics.Becauseindiscussingtheplan,someofusbecameconcernedthattherewaspotentialtone-glect thehumanities and the social sci-ences,andgivenasocietyintransition,itwasabsolutelyimperativethatweunder-standwhatishappeningwithsociety,and

areable to support a change in societyand communities to grapple and copewithchange.Plus,youwantpoetry,liter-ature,andsoon.Sohumanandsocialdy-namicsisthefiftharea.

Nowembeddedinthosefinally,isre-allyensuringsufficientresourcesforthoseareaswithoutneglectingtheotherareasscientistswanttopursue.Butthesewouldbekindofwherewewanttoseefocussed,ensuredresources.Two,makingsurewehavethehumancapital,becausewithoutthepeople,you’renotgoingtodothesci-enceyouwanttodo,soyourMastersde-greesandPh.D.’sareveryimportanttous,post-graduate study. And third, makingsurewehave the institutional structurestogiveustheseareasthatwewanttofo-cuson.Sotheuniversitiesmusthaveap-propriate facilities, the sciencecouncilsmusthaveinfrastructure.

Sowe’relookingwithinthesefivear-eas:Howdoyouensure,howdowepo-sitionourselvesinawaythatallowsustocontinue to do basic science, producethe right human capital, be innovative,andactuallybuildallianceswiththepri-vatesectorthatsupportinnovation.And

William Jones/EIRNS

SouthAfrica is fostering scienceandtechnologycapabilitiesatthesametimethatitistryingtopushforwardsocio-economicdevelop-ment.Khayalitsha(shownhere),isaCapeTowninformalsettlementwithmore than1.5million resi-dents. While hundreds of thou-sands of new homes, with elec-tricity andwater, arebeingbuilteach year, the influxof refugeesfrom neighboring countries hasmade eliminating these squattervillages more difficult. Below:newKhayalitshahousing.

William Jones/EIRNS

SPACEREPORT


thatessentiallyinaverybriefoutline,is theagendaof theGovernmentatthistime.

SouthAfrica’sRoleintheContinent

21stCentury:Youalsohaveaverybroadviewinterms,Ithink,ofwhatSouthAfrica’s role is for thewholecontinent.

Pandor:Absolutely!Africa iscen-tralforus,because,youknow,webe-lievethatyoucannothaveanislandofdevelopmentinaseaofunderde-velopmental poverty. And so we’veworkedveryhardtoensureasweini-tiateourprogramsthatwedosowiththe African continent. We have 23universities in SouthAfrica.At themo-ment, we have around 820,000 youngpeopleregistered,sowearealmostburst-ingattheseams.Andwhat’sintriguingisthatof thatnumber,around50,000arefrom otherAfrican countries. So we’vebecomearesourceforthecontinent.

Ithinkitistoughforus.Wearewor-riedaboutsuccessratesinhighereduca-tion,butwehavesomeuniversitiesthatareprettygoodquality,andabout7outofthe23areresearch-intensive.Wewantto build much more capacity, but wehaveacommittedGovernment,andfor-tunately, we are getting support, neverenoughmoney,butwearealwaysfight-ingformore.Thisweek,IwashavingbigfightswithmycolleagueinFinance,butIthinkwedogetresourcesandwe’reabletodeploythem.

21stCentury:Oneofthemostremark-ableprojectsthatyouarenowinatoughfightwithAustraliafor,istheSquareKi-lometerArray.It’saveryimpressiveproj-ectitself,butalsothefactthatyoumadeitajointprojectwithanumberofother

countries on the continent is very im-pressive.Howdoyouseethataskindofadriver?Whatimpactdoyouseeithav-ingifyougettheprogram?

Pandor:You know, one of the thingsthat we wanted to do is to change theway the world seesAfrica.We tend toview the continent as a place of awfulproblems—famine, disease, war—andnotasaknowledgeregionoftheworld.Nowwe’retryingtochangeourcharac-terintoonewhereweareassociatedwithaniconicresearchfacilitythatdrawsre-searchers intoAfrica to carry out high-level research work. That, we believe,wouldfundamentallyalter thewaythattheworldseesus.

Because they will come to countriesonthecontinentforaverydifferentpur-pose.SoweregardtheSquareKilometerArrayandthefactoftheAfricanpartner-shipaspartofthisalterationoftheper-ceptionofAfro-pessimismthatwehaveinAfrica.Butalsoitwouldmeanamas-siveboosttohumancapitaldevelopmentbecause it involves so many areas oftechnologicalandscientificactivity.

Justtwoweeksago,IwasinWashing-

ton,andIwasspeakingtoallthetopcor-porationsintheinformation-communica-tions-technology (ICT) domain—yourCiscos, your IBM, Honeywell—briefingthemontheopportunitiesofferedbySKA,anditwas incredible.Here’sanAfricanminister talking to the topexecutivesofthemajorworld ICTcompanies, sayingpleasecometoSouthAfricaandseewhatopportunitiesyoucouldderivefromtheSquareKilometerArray,andassistus inensuringthatwehavethebestprogram-ming,thebestsystemsanalysis,thebestdatamanagementfacilityforthisimpor-tantproject.Andwetoldthemthat,evenif—the Lord forbid—we don’t get theSKA, we are committed to the demon-stratedtelescopeMeerKAT,whichinitselfwillbeasignificantresearchfacility.

Anditwasgreat!Theywereallexcit-ed.Theyallwantedtobepartofit.Wehaveagreementswith IBMalready.Wehave agreements with Nokia, with In-tel—so there’sa lotofexcitement.Andthisexcitement:ItbeginswithSouthAf-rica, but then it must look at Mozam-bique;itmustlookatZambia,Namibia,Ghana,Botswana.Allthepartnerstothis

University of Cape Town

UNESCO

Tshwane University

SouthAfricahas23universitieswith820,000studentsenrolled,50,000ofthemfromotherAfricancountries.Here,theUniversityofCapeTown,foundedin1829;TshwaneUniversityofTechnology,foundedin2003;andagroupofstudentsatTshwaneUniversity.


new development are all the varioussidesofourprogram.

I’vefoundabitofmoneyinmybudgettostarthelpingMozambiquetobuildaradio astronomy observatory. And wehope we’ll do the same with Zambia;we’redoingsowithGhanaaswell.

InspiredbyEleanorRoosevelt

21stCentury:WhenNigerialauncheditstwosatellitesaweekorsoago,oneofthewaysthatthepresscovereditwastosaythatNigeriaisnowwinningthe“African space race.” But all of theSouthAfricanspeakersattheCapeTown

Congress have stressed internationalcooperation.

One project under development istheAfricanResourcesMonitoringCon-stellation. Dr. Malinga, who had apressconferenceinJohannesburgbe-fore the IACconference started, saidthat the next South African satellite,Sumbandila-2,whichwillbeSouthAfri-ca’s contribution to the Constellation,wouldbedeveloped.Hasthatbeenap-proved?

Pandor:Notyet.No,they’restillwork-ingonit,butwe’veagreedthatthat’sthedirectionwe’regoing.Andwe’lllookatwhatthey’veproduced,theirplan,andIhopebytheendofthisyearwewillhaveanindicationwhattheneedsare,whatthetimelinesare,andwhatresourcesarerequired.

21stCentury:Ihavetosaythatanin-spiring thing about SouthAfrica is theleadingroleofwomenhere.

Pandor:WealldrawontheU.S.WealltalkaboutEleanorRooseveltandthecontributionsshemadetotheempower-mentofwomen.Weneverforgetthatwewouldn’thave theUniversalCharterofHumanRightswereitnotforher.Agreatwoman. So we draw inspiration. Andthat’swhatwewouldlikeAmericatogobackto—tobethecountrythatinspiresus.

© SKA South Africa

ThefirstfewdishesoftheKarooArrayTelescope,orMeerKAT,isasymbolofwhatMinisterPandorcalled“thealterationoftheperceptionofAfro-pessimismthatwehaveinAfrica.”Itwillmeana“massiveboosttohumancapitaldevelopment,”shesaid.

INTERVIEW:DR.SANDILEMALINGA

SpaceinSouthAfrica:AChangeinParadigmDr.SandileMalingaisthefirstchiefex-

ecutiveofficeroftherecentlyestablishedSouth African National Space Agency(SANSA). He is a space physicist, whoearnedadoctoratefromRhodesUniver-sity.In2002,hejoinedtheUniversityofNatalandlaterbecametheDean’sAssis-tantattheUniversityKwaZulu-Natal,re-sponsible forstudentacademicsupportprograms.

In2007,Dr.Malingajoinedtheleader-shipoftheHermanusMagneticObserva-tory,nowSANSASpaceScience.HeisamemberoftheSouthAfricanCouncilforSpaceAffairs,andservesonnumeroussci-entificcommittees.Dr.Malingaisdedicat-edtobringingyoungpeopleintoscience

andtechnology,acommitmentwhichhesays is inspired by his three young chil-dren; and he sees his responsibility notonlytohisnation,buttoallofAfrica.

Dr.Malingawas interviewedbyMar-shaFreemanon,Oct.6,duringtheInter-nationalAstronauticalCongress,inCapeTown.

21stCentury:YougaveabriefingforthepressinJohannesburgaboutaweekago,priortotheCongress,inwhichyoumentioned that you hoped to start aprojectnextyeartobuildanoperationalEarth-observation satellite; that Sum-bandilawasaprototype,notdesignedtobeoperational.Whyhaveyouput thisforward?Peoplewouldask,wouldn’titbecheaperandfastertojustgotoafor-eign commercial company and buy asatellite?

SPACEREPORT


Malinga:Thereasonwethinkweshouldbuildourownsatellite,goesbeyondwhat the satellite can do.Wehopethatthroughthis,wewillcomeupwithnewtechnologies. We have averybadshortageintermsofhighlyskilledpeopleinthecountry.Sothiswouldbeonevehiclethatonecanusetotrainpeopleinhightechnologies.

Further,asacountry,wehave challenges. We im-portquitealotofhightech-nologies fromothercoun-tries.We currently have atrade deficit, in terms ofhigh technologies, in ex-cess of 70 billion rand(about $9 billion) a year.And this has gone up. Inthe past, I think around2005, the trade deficit interms of high technologywas around R43 billion ayear,andit’sgoneupto70-something. So there issomethinggoingwrong,intermsofcompetenceinhightechnology;itisprobablyslipping.

Wealsoseethatintermsofourpatentshare.Around2005orso,itwasaround0.1-0.2 percent of the global share. In2009, it has gonedownabout 80per-centto.02-something.We’reslowlyslip-ping as a country, globally. So we be-lievethatbydoingthis,itwillcontributeto addressing those challenges, whichthecountryistryingtoaddress.Inaddi-tion,wewillcreatetheskillsthatarere-quired.Andthebiggestthingisthattheskillsthatarecreatedintermsofspacecouldhelppeoplefindjobselsewhereinother industries, car manufacturing, orminingareas,andalsootherindustries.They could work just about anywhere.Thosearerelatedbenefitsthatwehopetoderiveoutofthis.

Besides that, we believe that weshould build our own satellite, so thatwedesign it tomeetourneeds.Whenyoubuildasatellite,youbuilditforyourownneeds.IfweusetheFrenchsatellite,whichweuseatthemoment,it’snotde-signedforwhatwewant.Wehaveoursavannashere.FranceisinEurope.You

know, they have different vegetationfromwhatwehave.Weneedtocustom-ize our satellites, to meet our require-ments, and achieve what we want. Sothosearethereasonswhywethinkweshouldbuildourownsatellite.

Andthere’stheissueofnationalpride,as well. We can’t underestimate that.Thatiswhathaspropelledothernationsgloballytobewheretheyare:Nationalpride.It’sassimpleasthat.“Wegotit;it’sbeendonehere.”Ithasanimmensemo-tivational affect on your people, youryoungpeople,whowillseethissatellitethat theyhavedeveloped. It drivesyouontootherthings.Thesenseofbeliefthatwecandojustaboutanything,andthat’sanadvantage.

WeMustAllProsperTogether

21stCentury:Yousaidatvarioustimesthroughoutthisweekthatyourcountryhas many challenges, and not everyproblemcanbesolvedquickly.Butforpeopletothinkthattheirchildren’sliveswill be better than theirs, that is thehope.

There was an article recently, when

Nigeria had two satelliteslaunched, that Nigeria iswinningthe“Africanspacerace.”Butyouhavestressedthecooperativespaceproj-ects that are under way,suchastheAfricanResourceManagement Constellation(ARMC).Howimportant isit to have a regional viewandnotjustuseyoursatel-litetolookatSouthAfrica?

Malinga: That’s very im-portant, that we take a re-gional view. Especially forus,intermsofwhereweareintheSADC(SouthernAfri-can Development Commu-nity) region. If you look atour neighboring countries,we’refarahead,intermsofspace.Andsoit’snotinourinterest to just benefit our-selves.TheSADCcountrieswill prosper, or none of uswillbeprosperous.Then,noonewouldhavetobemoni-toringborders,becausepeo-ple want to remain wheretheywereborn,largely,un-

less there issomethingelse thatpushesthemtoseekgreenerpastures.

Sobystimulatingtheregionasawhole,thatcreatesmarketsforSADC,aswell.Ifthereissomeonewhocanbuyaproductandcanaffordit,thenyoucansellmore.Sowehavetolookatitthatway.Thatit’sinourinteresttodeveloptheregionasawhole, and when we collect satellitedata,wewouldlovetodistributeittoourneighbors.

There are programs, for instance,CBERS,theChina/BrazilEarthResourcesSatellite.

21stCentury:Youhadmentionedthat.IhadnoideaSouthAfricawasinvolvedinthatproject.

Malinga:Weareinvolvedinthat.Weare downloading the data; it’s just thatrightnow,thesatelliteisnotworking.Butwe’redownloadingthedata,andtheli-cense for it was crafted under the so-called “data democracy framework,”where data are freely available. So themandatethatwasgivenis that thedataaretobedistributedtoneighborsforfree.That’sthecommitmentthatwemade.

www.sunspace.co.za

SouthAfrica’sSumbandilamicro-satellitebeforeitslaunchinSep-tember2009,fromtheBaikonurCosmodrome.Sumbandilameans“leadtheway”intheVendalanguage.Dr.Malingastressedtheim-portanceofSouthAfrica’sbuildingitsownsatellitetomeetthena-tion’sneeds.


Nowwehavesignedanothercontractfor CBERS 3, which will be launchednextyear.That isstillunder that frame-work—thatwe’lldownloadthedataanddistribute it freely to our region.We’recommitted todo that,andwe think it’simportant.

Similarly,withoursatelliteaswell:Thedatashouldbeshared.Whenyoulookatit, there is SouthAfrica in the southernregion;there’sNigeriaintheWest;there’sKenyaintheEast;andthere’sAlgeriaupnorth.Ifweweretothinkaboutthisverycarefully, and sort of, each be a spacepowerhouseinthoseregions,wecoulddomore.Wecouldcover thewholeofAfricainaverymeaningfulway(withasatellite constellation by these four na-tions.)

IssuesofcollaborationinAfricaareveryinteresting,andtricky,inthebestoftimes.That’sanotheris-sue.

Youknow,it’scoincidental,butwearemoreorlesscoveringallofthemainregionsofAfrica,almostallofthemthroughtheproposedARMC constellation. We couldcover Africa very easily throughour regional cooperation; SouthAfrica would be responsible fortheSADC,andassistourregionasmuchaspossible.Eventhen,wedon’twantthemdependingonus.Weassistthemtogetontheirfeetandflyontheirown.That’sthein-tention.

RaisingtheBar

21stCentury:Andyouhadsaidthat if other countries can’t flytheir own satellites, they couldparticipate in the program, andbuild and operate a ground sta-tion.

Oneoftheotherthingsthathasbeenmentioned,isthepossibilityofalaunchfacility. Every continent has a rocketlaunch facility, exceptAfrica.And youhaveinfrastructureattheformerOver-bergTestRangethatexistedinprevioustimes.Istheremuchthereatthesite,orhasitallbeendismantled?

Malinga:It’sstillthere.Thesiteisstillthere—thebunker,andotherthings;thetallhangars.Everythingisstillthere.Theinfrastructureisthere.

21st Century: So it could be devel-

opedtolaunchsatellites?Malinga: Everything is still there; the

telemetrysystems.21stCentury: It isourview that the

path to economic development isthroughgreatprojects.Youtalkedabouthow having a vision is important, andthatnothingthatisdoneinspacecanbedoneinafewmonths,buttakesalong-termcommitment.Howdoyouseewhatyouaredoinginspaceashavinganim-pactonthelongterm,suchasineduca-tion?WesawtheimpactoftheApollo

ProgramintheU.S.Malinga:Doyoumean,whynot

use this money for education, asanexample?Ithinkthepointthatyouareraisingis,whereyouraisethebar,youstretchpeople.Insteadofdoing themundane, the thingsthattheyareabletodo,yousetahigher bar whereby they have tostretch themselves and think ofthingsdifferently.Thatisthewaytochange and have that paradigm-shift, that now we’re taking ajump.

Youknow, to someextent,ourprogram’s not of that nature.Wehaven’ttakenonaveryambitiousprogram.Imean,buildingasatel-lite—we’vedoneitbefore.Thefirstone we built, Sumbandila, is notnecessarily an operational satel-

lite,butIdon’tthinkputtingupanopera-tionalsatelliteisnecessarilyahugejump,asinmakingaparadigm-shift.

By what we’re doing—are we reallygoing to change things? Probably not.ButIthinkifweweretotakeevenmoreambitiousgoalsandobjectives,andsay,“This is what we’re going to do,” thatwouldprobablypropelus further,evenfasterinourdevelopment.

I think this is a good start.We canstart by completely building our ownsatellites.Andwelookatthisasaway

SunSpace

SunSpace

Sumbandila images of Sossusvleiin Namibia (above) and CapeTown, both taken in February2010.

SPACEREPORT


ofworkingwithAfricancountries.It’sachallenge in thesense that I’m talkingabout,moreon thepatriotic andAfri-can kind of vision. But when peopletalk—thecompanythatbuildsoursat-ellites—they’re more concerned aboutthemoney.Me,I’llbesayingtothem:“Let’s impart the knowledge to the

African countries. They’ll build theirown.”

BecausethewayIlookatit,wecan’tbuild five, ten satellites in the country,alone.Socanyouimagine,ifeachandeveryAfricancountrywasdoingso,andweuseallofthose—?

Forme,I’llsaytheskillsshouldbecre-atedelsewhere,sotherearemorepeoplewhocandothis,sowecanhavemoresatellites.Soasacountry,yes.Butforabusinessman,probablynot!

21stCentury:That’swhyitwasimpor-tant for the government to create aSouth African NationalSpaceAgency.

Malinga: Yes. That’sthe intention. I’ll try tohave more social activ-ism, and say, “Createthese capabilities else-where, and we’ll havemoresatellites,andwe’llput them up there to-gether, so as a country,wedon’t have to spendmore money creatingour own constellation.”Thethingaboutonesat-elliteisthatitdoesn’tas-

sistyoumuch;itdoesagoodjob,butitislimited.Ifthere’sadisaster,coverageissmall,andtherevisittimeislong.Youcan’t,whenthere’sadisaster,becom-ingback inacoupleofmonths to thesamespot.Sothosearethethingsthatarehelpedbyamulti-satelliteconstel-lation.Mymodelwillbe:Buildtheca-pacity, and people will build theirown.

InspiringYoungPeople

21stCentury:Youmentioned,intermsof political stability and economicgrowth,itisneverabenefittoanycoun-SANSA

Weneedtoraisethebar,to“stretchpeo-ple,”Dr.Malingasaid,asawayofbring-ing about change through education.Here,anoutreachprogramoftheSouthAfrican National Space Agency, whichaims to create the next generation ofspacepioneers.

SSTL

Dr.Malingastressedtheneedforcollaborativespaceprojectsandaregionalviewofspacedevelopmentandresources.OneofthepartnersisNigeria.Here,anartist’sdepictionoftheNigeriaSat-2spacecraftinorbit,andNigerianengineersintraining.


try to have poor neigh-bors.

Malinga:Youclosebor-ders,anddootherthings,andspendsomuchmon-ey.Wehaveacenterwherewekeeppeoplewhocomeintothecountry,andthendeportthem.Wearepay-ing a lot of money doingthat. Whereas, if theireconomies were okay,theywould stay.Home ishome. Everyone wants toget home, as long as theconditionsareokay.Hav-ing said that, it’s a chal-lenge,but it’sveryimpor-tant.

21st Century: Do youthink this AstronauticalCongresswillhaveanim-pact,especiallyonyoungpeople,andeducation?

Malinga:Ithinkithasdoneagreatjob.Wehadmoreofourstudentswhoother-wise would not have been exposed to

this.Theycame,theyattended.Ourpro-fessionals,also.But,Ihaveafeelingwecouldhavedonebetter,onattendance.I’dexpectedittobemore.

Ithinktheimpactwillbeimmense, going forward.Peoplewilllookback.Canyouimaginethekindofim-pactthatismadeonyoungpeople?NASAAdministra-tor Charles Bolden spoketoschoolkids.It’samazingwhatthatdoesforachild.I go to places in schoolsand say, “Just rememberthis day.” Probably this iswhere your space careerstarted; when someonecame and spoke to youaboutspace.

21st Century: That’swhat many of the astro-nauts on their Congresspanel said had inspiredthem.1

Malinga: So it has anamazing impact, to seesomeonelikeyousayingto

us,“Icanactuallydothismyself.”

1. See EIR, Oct. 7, 2011, for the Apollo astronauts’ testimony before Congress.

initiative.wordpress.com/category/satellites/

Governmentrepresentativessigningamemorandumofunderstand-ing,duringtheThirdAfricanLeadershipConferenceonSpaceScienceandTechnologyforSustainableDevelopment,inAlgiers,inDecem-ber2009.TheAfricanResourceManagementConstellationinvolvesaninitialcollaborationofNigeria,SouthAfrica,Kenya,andAlgeria.

SouthAfricanscientistPeterMartinezheadedtheLocalOrganizingCommitteefor the InternationalAstronauticalCon-gress(IAC).Dr.Martinezisthechairmanof theSouthAfricanCouncil for SpaceAffairs,whichoverseesspaceactivitiesinSouthAfrica,andheisdivisionheadforSpace Science and Technology at theSouthAfricanAstronomicalObservato-ry. Dr. Martinez has made importantcontributions to the development ofSouth Africa’s national space policies.He holds a doctorate in astrophysicsfromtheUniversityofCapeTown,andcontributes to international policymak-inginspaceaffairs.

At the final count, 345 African dele-gates,from13Africannations,attendedthe Congress. A special DevelopingCountries Support Programme (DCSP)hadbeenorganizedbytheInternationalAstronautical Federation to support theparticipationofdelegates.Twentyofthe

30participants supportedby theDCSPprogramwerefromAfrica.

Dr.MartinezwasinterviewedbyMar-sha Freeman on Oct. 3, 2011 in CapeTown.

21stCentury:Astheheadofthelocalcommitteethatorganizedthisfirst-everCongressoftheInternationalAstronau-

ticalFederation inAfrica,youmustbeverypleasedbytheturnout.

Martinez:We’vegotabout2,800dele-gatesregistered.We’reveryexcitedaboutthat. I think it shows the interestby theglobal space community in finding outabout that’s happening in the Africanspace arena, and the potentials that itholds,notonlyforspaceinAfrica,butthepotentialforcooperationandcommercialapplicationsofspacetechnologyinAfricaandthemarketsassociatedwiththat.

21st Century: How many Africancountries sent delegates to the Con-gress?

Martinez:Thereare53countriesinAf-rica,andIwouldbesurprisedifall53arerepresentedhere;itwillprobablybefew-er thanhalf.Butstill, in termsofspacedevelopmentinAfrica, thatwouldbeasignificantly higher number than youmighthaveattracted,hadthisCongress

INTERVIEW:DR.PETERMARTINEZ

WeSeeanAfrican‘Astronaissance’

SPACEREPORT

http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2011/eirv38n39-20111007/44-45_3839.pdf


been held, say, 10 years ago.We’reseeingabirthofanum-berofspaceprogramsinAfrica,hencethethemeoftheconfer-ence, “An African Astronais-sance.”

21st Century: All of thespeakersattheopeningsessionof theCongress todaymade itveryclear that theywerewel-coming the delegates from allovertheworld,onbehalfofallofAfrica.

Martinez:Wewereverycon-sciousthatthiswasthefirstIACforthecontinent,andwhenwebidtohostit,wesubmittedourbidasanAfricanbid.Ourper-spective has always been thatit’s a Congress for Africa, andwe’vetakenagreatdealofcareto involve our African col-leaguesintheplanningleadinguptothisCongress,andtoen-surethatthisCongressrespondsnot only to our interests andneeds, but the interests andneedsofAfrica,ingeneral.

AnAll-AfricanSpaceAgency?

21stCentury:Lastyear,ataconferenceofAfricanleaders,there was discussion of form-ing an African Space Agency,similar to theEuropeanSpaceAgency.At that time, you were quoted sayingthatsuchanorganizationwouldbepre-mature. What are your thoughts onthat?

Martinez:Thisexactquestionwasdis-cussedattheAfricanLeadershipConfer-enceonSpaceScienceandTechnology,held inMombasa lastweek.And I ampleasedtosaythattheheadsoftheotherAfricanspaceagencieswhowereonthepaneldiscussingthisverysubject,allex-pressed views verymuch in linewithmyownpersonalopinion,whichisthatitwouldbeprematureat this stage forAfrica to develop a continental spaceagency.

Ithinkwherewearenowis,thatwe’reseeingthebirthofcoordinatedspaceac-tivities at a national level. Countriesneed to develop their space activities,and experience, and operational pro-gramsfirst,andthendevelopexperience

incooperatingwitheachotherin executing space activitiesjointly.

Therearemany,manychal-lengesandissuestoovercomeinconductingjointspaceproj-ects. In the fullness of time, Ithink we will see whether weneedacontinentalspaceagen-cy,orifsomeothermodalityofcooperation would suffice. It’snotcleartomethatoneneedsto establish a new institution.Perhapsjustverygoodcoordi-nation and networking amongaseriesofstrongAfricanspaceagencies would achieve thesameresults,butinamoreeffi-cientmanner.

21stCentury:Howhavethedevelopment and achieve-mentsinSouthAfricainspacescienceandtechnologyradiat-edtootherAfricannations?

Martinez: I think the mostsignificant role, perhaps, is aninspirational one, of being akindofrolemodelfortheAfri-can continent, demonstratingthatsuchthingscanbedoneinAfrica,byAfricans.AnexampleofthatistheSumbandilasatel-lite, which was developed inSouth Africa, and designed,

built,andoperatedinthiscountry,with,really,averysmallpercentageofcompo-nents that were imported from else-where.

Other projects, such as the SouthernAfrican Large Telescope, which is cur-rentlythelargestsingletelescopeintheSouthernHemisphere,andprojectslikethe MeerKAT radio telescope—all ofthosedemonstratetechnologicalandsci-entificcapabilityhere,onthecontinent,and,Ithink,servetoinspireotherAfricannations.And, incidentally, I should saythatallof theseprojectsarebeingpur-sued in amanner that is quiteopen tocollaboration with other African coun-tries.

In termsof theMeerKATandSquareKilometerArray(SKA)projects—theSKAisverymuchanAfricanbidtohostthisverylargeinstrument,simplybecauseofthecontinentaldimensionsofthearray,onceit’sbuilt.Sowehavestationsasfar

www.sunspace.co.za

TheSumbandilaSat(upperright)beingintegratedonFregatforlaunchatBaikonur.Dr.MartinezpointedtotheinspirationalroleofSouthAfricainspacefortherestofthecontinent.

The poster for the African LeadershipConference on Space Science andTechnologyinMombasa,whereheadsofthe African space agencies discussedcollaboration.

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2011-2012 73

north as Ghana, whichare projected; and inter-estingly,Nigeriaisanoth-er country in the regionthathasstrongcapabilityin radio astronomy. It’sveryexcitingtobework-ing with these countriesonSKA.

Also,inthedomainofsatellitetechnology,thereis an African ResourceMonitoringConstellation.Thisisaprojectwherebyeachcountrycontributesone satellite to the con-stellation,buthasaccesstothedatafromtheothersatellites.Atthemoment,theARMCproj-ectisbeingledbyAlgeria,Kenya,Nige-ria,andSouthAfrica,butitis,inprinci-

ple,opentoothercountriestojoinatthelevelappropriatetotheirdevelop-mentandneeds.

The South African Astronomical Observato-ry (SAAO) is the national center for optical and infrared astronomy in South Africa, and home to the largest single telescope in the Southern Hemisphere. The larger view, with SALT in the foreground, shows the older and smaller telescopes seen at the other end of the plateau. Inset is a close-up of the South African Large Telescope (or SALT).

SAAO

Dr. Lee-Anne McKinnell is the manag-ing director of space science at the South African National Space Agency (SANSA), and former acting managing director at the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory. Her area of research is in the development of an ionospheric model for application to communication in the ionosphere.

In addition to her scientific research, she plays a leading role in developing a new generation of young scientists from the nations of Africa.

She was interviewed by Marsha Free-man on Oct. 6, 2011, during the Interna-tional Astronautical Congress in Cape Town.

21st Century: Can you give us a bit of the history of the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, and why it was built in South Africa?

McKinnell:Itwasstartedin1937attheUniversityofCapeTown,formeasuringthe Earth’s magnetic field, which wasneededat that time.Butby1940, theyrealized that when you measure theEarth’smagneticfield,youwanttodoitas accurately as possible, in an areawheretherearenotoutsideinfluences.

In CapeTown, where the University

wasbased,therewasanelectricrailwayline,andthesystemwascausinginaccu-racies in the measurements they weretryingtomake.Sotheydecidedtomovetheobservatorytoaplacewhichiswhatwe call “magnetically clean,” wheretherearenoseriousexternal influencesontheEarth’smagneticfield.Theylookedforatownthatdidn’thavearailwayline.AndHermanus,whichis120kilometersfromCapeTown,off the coast, hadnoelectric railway in thosedays—andstilldoesn’ttoday,thankfully,sotheObserva-torywasplacedthere.

AtHermanus,wehave16hectaresofland,andinthemiddle,wehaveamag-

neticallycleanarea,whichiswherewetake the measurements of the Earth’smagneticfield.All of thebuildingsusenon-magneticmaterialandarebuiltwithnon-magnetic material, and we restrictactivities in that area. We don’t allowpeopletodigandputupstructuresthathavemagneticcomponents.Wepreservethepristinenatureofthat.

21st Century: I believe there have been changes over time in the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field. Have you seen this in your measurements?

McKinnell: You are absolutely right.ThereasonwhywewanttomeasuretheEarth’smagneticfieldindifferentplacesisbecauseit’schanging,andit’sdifferentin different places. SANSA, at the mo-ment,operatesfourpermanentfieldob-servatories,wherewehaveaccuratein-strumentation to takemeasurements, inSouthAfricaandinNamibia.Hermanusisoneofthem;andthenwehaveoneinHartebeesthoek,whichisnorthofPreto-ria,andthentherearetwoinNamibia,atTsumebandKeetmanshoop.

All four these have INTERMAGNET(International Real-Time Magnetic Ob-servatoryNetwork)status,whichisanin-

INTERVIEW:DR.LEE-ANNEMCKINNELL

What Is the Weather in Space?

SANSA

SPACEREPORT


ternationalorganizationthatdictatesthestandardsformeasurements.It’sabitlikehavingastandardmeasurefor thekilo-meter,orthemeter.

21stCentury:Wherearethedatacol-lected?

McKinnell:Thereisaglobaldatabaseofmagneticfieldmeasurements, calledtheINTERMAGNETDataBase,andallofthe data from these four observatories,plus many other observatories aroundtheworld,contributetothat.Therearea

numberofmagneticobservatorieswhichdoverysimilarthingstowhatwedo,allaroundtheworld.Anumberofthem,in-cludingtheoneinHermanus,hadbeenchosentousetheirdatatocalculatewhatwecalltheDSTindex,theDisturbanceStormTimeindex.Itisaglobalindexformagneticfieldmeasurements,andifyouhavethat index,youcancorrelatewithany other space environment data andseetheeffectsthemagneticfieldishav-ingontherestofthespaceenvironment.

TheEarth’smagneticfieldisaveryim-portant parameter in space mea-surements.Andwe’reveryproudofthefactthatHermanusisofsuchastandardthatitcanbeusedforthatcalculation.

Intermsofthechangeinthemag-

neticfield,wehavepeopleonourstaffwhose specialty is geomagnetic data,andeverymagneticobservatory shouldhavesomebodylikethat.Butwegoonestepfurther—wehavepeopleonthestaffwhosimulatetheEarth’smagneticfield.Theywillhavealookathowit’schang-ingwithtime,andtrytopredicthowitisgoingtochangeinthefuture,andthenwill update itwithnewmeasurements,astheybecomeavailable.

What they have noticed is that theEarth’s magnetic field is changing, andthatinHermanus,ithaschangedbyupto20percentoverthelast75years.Ap-parently, this is something that they’veseen in geologic ages; around100,000yearsago,theEarth’smagneticfieldactu-allyswitchedandthatitwillswitchfromtimetotime,ingeologicaltime-spaces,andthatwe’redueforachange—aswitchoftheEarth’smagneticfield,again.Whenit’sgoingtohappen,they’renotsosure,buttheysaywe’reabout200,000yearsoverdue,andthatitmighthappeninthenext100,000years.SoIdon’tthinkwehavetoloseanysleepoverittonight,butitisgoingtohappen.

What will happen when the Earth’smagneticfieldswitches,isaquestionwegetasked,andofcourse,wehavenosci-entificevidence.Noneofuswerearoundthe last time; we didn’t have the mea-surementswehavetoday.Alltheyknowfrom geological records is that the lastswitchof theEarth’smagneticfielddidnotcoincidewith theextinctionofanylifeform.Theyfeelwe’reprobablygoingtobesafe.It’snotlife-threatening.

The Earth’s magnetic field has a pur-pose—it keeps the atmosphere to theEarth, and the atmosphere protects usfrom the Sun’s rays. So we’re probably

SANSA

ThemanagementteamoftheSouthAfricanNationalSpaceAgency(SANSA)poseswiththeCongress2011flagattheirofficesinPretoria.

TheHermanusMagneticObservatoryis ina“magneticallyclean”areawhereittakesmeasurementsoftheEarth’smagneticfield.Aboveistheobservatoryin1932,andatright,theobservatorytoday,withitslogo.ItisoneoffourfieldobservatoriesoperatedbySANSA.

AftertheInternationalPolarYearof1932-1933amagneticobser-vatorywasestablishedat theUniversityofCapeTown,andlatermovedtoHermanus,whereitoperatestoday.Itrecentlyinaugu-ratedtheSpaceWeatherOperationsCentre,todevelopthetoolstoissuewarningsofmagneticstorms. Hermanus Magnetic Observatory

SPACEREPORT


goingtogetstrongerrayscomingthroughtheatmosphere,moreextremeultravio-letlightcomingthroughasthemagneticfield weakens. But probably not for averylongperiodoftime.

TheEarth’sSpaceEnvironment

21stCentury:TheObservatoryisalsopartofan internationalnetworkof re-gionalwarningcentersforspaceweath-er.Howdoesthatfunction?

McKinnell:Spaceweatheristhetermwe give to changing conditions in theEarth’s space environment. It is a veryhostileenvironment,andconditionsthathappen in that environment can affectourtechnologyonEarth.

ItstartswiththeSunasthedriver,prop-agatesthroughinterplanetaryspace,andaffects theatmosphere.Theatmospheremaybereceivesanincreasednumberofparticles.We’reputtingsatellitesintotheatmospherethatwe’redependentonforcommunications,theGlobalPositioningSystem, the Internet,etc.Wehave longpipelinesonEarth,andtheyaresuscep-tibletocurrents.

Spaceweatherhasbeenaroundforalong time, of course, but we recentlycoinedtheterm.It’sbecomeahottopic,becauseoftheeffectsit’shavingontech-nology,andourdependenceisgrowing.So, therefore, we really need to knowandunderstandtheeffectsithasontech-nology.

In order to coordinate global activi-ties—becausereallyeverycountryis,orshouldbe,interestedinspaceweather—thereisaninternationalbody,calledtheInternational Space Environment Ser-vice,ISES,andtheyhavesetupregionalwarningcentersaroundtheglobe.Theytrytogoforatleastoneoneveryconti-nent,whosejobitistocoordinatespace-relateddataforeachcontinent.Youcallittheappliedsideofresearch.

They take themodels theresearchershavedeveloped,andtheytakethedatathatarecominginfromtheinstrumenta-tionthatwedeployed,andturnitintoin-formation.Wecallittheoperationalandforecastingandpredictingsideofspaceweather.

In Hermanus, in 2007, ISES ap-proachedusbecausetheydidn’thavearegionalwarningcenterinAfrica,andAf-ricaisacontinentalotofpeoplearein-terested in, because it’s very sparselypopulatedwithgeophysicalinstrumenta-

tion, and the data are still a little bitscarce.We are playing a major role inputtinginfrastructureinAfrica.

CosmicRadiation

21stCentury:Peoplehavebeenlook-ingathowgalacticcosmicradiationaf-fects Earth’s climate, and geophysicalphenomena,andhavenotedchangesintheionosphere,forexample,precedingearthquakes. Have you looked intothat?

McKinnell:We’ve not really concen-trated on precursors to earthquakes ortheeffectsofcosmicrays.Buttherearepeople globally who are studying justthat, particularly precursors to earth-quakes—the huge disasters that havehappenedinArgentinaandJapan,forex-ample. We do run networks of iono-spheric equipment that tell us aboutchangesintheionosphere.Butwe’rein-terested in the ionosphere for anotherreason,inSouthAfrica.

We’reinterestedforourabilitytocom-municate through the ionosphere, withradiowaves.InAfrica,that’sveryimpor-tant. Because not all African countriescan afford satellite communications, alotofthemarestillusinghigh-frequency(hf)radio-wavepropagationthroughtheatmosphere.InSouthAfrica,westilluse

hfradio-wavepropagationquiteabit.Soourspaceweathercenter,untilnow,hasconcentrated on being able to predictcommunicationvia theionosphere;be-ing able to predict frequency changes.Andthenalsojustlookingatwarnings,inrelationtospaceweather.

Forexample,wemonitortheSun.Wedon’thaveanysolarsatellitesourselves.WeusethedatafromU.S.andEuropeansatellites.

SpaceweatherstartswiththeSun.Sonomatterwhatyourinterestis,you’real-waysgoingtostartbylookingattheSun.We do have requests to notify peoplewhen there is a coronal mass ejectionfromtheSun.WearetryingtogivesomeindicationofhowlongitwillbebeforeithitstheEarth.We’veconcentratedonthecommunications side. Anybody whowants to know, can find out from ourwebsiteorfromcontactwithus,orfromsubscriptionservicesweoffer:“ThisthinghaslefttheSun,andisheadingtowardsEarth.”

Thenthereisawholerangeofthingsthatcomeafterthat.WhathappenswhenithitstheEarth.Ifyou’reusingGPS,isitgoingtobeaffected?Ifyouhavealongpipeline, and you’re piping somethingfrom here to North Africa, should youstopitforafewdays?Weprovidethein-

Hermanus Magnetic Observatory

Artist’scompositeofspaceweather,showingtheSun’sinteractionwiththemagneticfieldoftheEarth.Centuriesago,explorersobservedthesouthernsky,astheyroundedtheCapeofGoodHope,hopingtofindasearoutetotheEast,andbefore1600,theymademeasurementsoftheEarth’smagneticfieldtoaidnavigation.Thisregionwasalsoofparticularinterest,becauseoftheSouthAtlanticanomaly,aregionofweaken-ingoftheEarth’smagneticfield.

SPACEREPORT


formationuptoapoint.Thecus-tomer,theclient,thepersonontheotherside,willdecidehowseriousitis,andwhattodo.

Then, on top of that, we arealso running an investigationwherewegatherdatafromdiffer-ent people who are affected bythesethings,andlookatwaysinwhichwecantellyou,“Okay,acoronalmassejectionhaslefttheSun. It’s going to hit the Earth.Now ithashit theEarth.This isthe effect it had on the iono-sphere,andbecauseofthoseef-fects, this is the likelihood thatsomething will happen to yourequipment.”We’renotquitethereyet,butwe’reworkingonthat.

Wehopetobeatapointwherewe can say to you: “This after-noonat2:00,therewasacoro-nalmassejection;wesawit,weknowit’sthere.Itislikelytohitthe Earth’s atmosphere four days later,”andgiveyouaprobability:“Thesearetheeffectsthatarelikelytohappen,”beittosatellites,topowerlines,towhateveritisthatyou’reoperating.

Wealso,atSANSA,willbelookingatsatelliteprogramsforSouthAfrica.Everycountrythathasasatelliteprogram,hasadirect link to the space-weathercenter.You’renotgoingtospendalotofmoneyonyoursatellite,andthenputitintoanenvironment that is currently unstable.YouwantyoursatellitelaunchwindowtohappenatastableperiodoftheSun’sac-tivity.Soyouwillkeepinconstantcon-tactwithyourspace-weathercenter.

ExtremeWeatherEvents

21st Century: Changes inthe Earth’s magnetic fieldhaveanimpactontheamountof cosmic radiation thatreaches the Earth’s atmo-sphere,whichappearstohaveaneffectontheprocessofnu-cleationtocreateclouds,forexample.

McKinnell:Therearethreethings in your question.Thefirst, is that currently there’sbeen no scientific evidencethatrelatesspaceweathertoterrestrialweather.Theweath-er all around us we now

phraseas“terrestrialweather,”todistin-guishitfromspaceweather.Butthat’snottomeanthatthereisn’tacorrelation;andthereisagroupofpeoplewhoaretryingtocorrelateterrestrialweatherdataandspaceweatherdata.

Forexample,wedodosomesciencethatinvolveslightningstrikes,andwavesin the atmosphere.There is a group inSouthAfricathatisstudyingwhatwecalltheheliosphere,theSun’satmosphere.Aportionofthatgroupwaslookingatcos-micrays,solarcosmicrays,andtheeffectontheEarth’smagnetosphere,andtryingtomodeltheeffects.

Therearetwospacecraftthathavere-

centlygoneintotheedgeof thisheliosphere—Voyager1andVoy-ager2.Thosespacecrafthavere-leased a whole lot of new datathatthesescientistsareveryexcit-edabout,andprobablywillshowus much more than what we’veseenbefore.Atleastthatwillvali-datethemodels,anyway.

Our atmosphere protects usfrom the solar cosmic rays. Wehave done no studies to seewhether those cosmic rays arepenetratingfurtherdownintheat-mosphere than we believe theyare.However,thereasonwebe-lieve they are not penetratingdownvery far, isbecauseof theionosphere,whicharethedenselayersthatprotectus.

So,atthemoment,whatIcantell you is that the extent of thecosmic ray effects on people onEarthisverysmall.TheEarth’sat-

mosphereisdoingagoodjobofprotect-ingus.

TheeffectsofanykindofparticlesthattheSunejectsarefirstfeltinthemagneto-sphere,usuallyintheformofamagneticstorm.The study of magnetic storms issomethingwedoknowalotabout,andhavedonealotofworkon,becausethat’sthefirsttimeyoufeeltheeffectsofspaceweather. A magnetic storm compressesandexpandstheEarth’smagnetosphere,andthathasaneffectontheionosphere;andthat, in turn,hasaneffectonradiocommunications and other things. Wecan measure it, we can see the Earth’s

magneticfield,andthatispartofwhatthespace-weathercen-ter does. It will look at rawmagnetic data. It turns it intowhatwecallanindex,andthelevelof that indextellsustheseverityoftheevent—whetherit’saminor,ormoderate,orse-veremagneticstorm.

There have been a lot ofstudies of coronal mass ejec-tions coming off the Sun,whichisparticlesbeingthrownat the Earth’s magnetic field,geomagneticstormsorevents,and the ionosphere.That linkisfairlywellknown.Therearelots and lots of scientific pa-pers published on that link.Whatwe’retryingtodonow—

Themapshowsthemagneticmeasuringstationsinsouth-ernAfrica.wheremeasurementswererecordedin2004-2005Thelargedotsarethethreestationswithcontinu-ous-recording magnetic observations—Hermanus(HMO),Hartebeesthoek(HBK),andTsumeb(TSU).

International Space Environment Service

TheHermanusObservatoryisoneof12regionalfacilitiesoftheInternationalSpaceEnvironment Service’sRegionalWarningCenterNetwork.Thecentersareresponsibleforissuingwarningsofgeomagneticstormsthatcanaffect radiocommunications,long-distancepipelines,andelectric-powergridsonEarth.

SPACEREPORT


andwehavegotsomescientistsworkingonitinSANSA—islookingattheloweratmosphere,which is still above terres-trialweather, lookingat that effect andwhetherwhatwe see is differentwhenwehaveageomagneticstorm.

Andwe’verecentlyinstalledapieceofequipmentinHermanuscalledaDopplerradar,whichwillbasicallysoundtheat-mosphereatavery lowfrequency,con-tinuouslyatcertaintimes,butonlyatthatonesinglefrequency,andbringusbackspectrogramsthatwillallowustoseedis-turbances and irregularities in the iono-sphere,mostly in the lower ionosphere.We’rehopingtoseeacorrelationbetweenthose,andthegeomagneticstorms,whichhappenmuchhigherup.Sowehaven’tgottendowntoterrestrialweatheryet,butwe’recomingdowninourscience!

Particularlyinthiskindofscience,wespecialize in two ways: in the area inwhichyouhaveexpertise,soifwehavescientists who are interested in certainaspects of the space environment, wetend to build a specialty around them;and then, in termsof theneedsof thatparticularcountry.That’swhyourspace-weather center has done so much hfpropagationwork,becausethathappenstobeaneedinthisparticulararea.

The‘ExtendedSolarMinimum’

21stCentury:Therewasalotofcon-cernaboutthelatenessoftheonsetofthiscurrentsolarcycle.Isthatanareathatyoualsocanmeasureandconfirm,looking at the changes in the Earth’smagneticfield?

McKinnell: We monitored that. It’sbeen termed “the extended solar mini-mumof2007.” I think2007waswhenwethoughttheendofitwouldcome,butitwasamuchlongersolarminimumthanthepreviousone,whichwas11yearsbe-fore.Theconcernwasthatthelasttimesuch a long solar minimum had beenseen was what we called the MaunderMinimum, beginning in 1645, whichwasthemini-iceage.

Anotherconcernwasthatafterasolarminimum,thenextthingyouworryaboutisthesolarmaximum.Thequestionwas:Whatisthisgoingtodotooursolarmax-imum? Does this mean we get an en-larged solarmaximumor that the solarmaximumwillbedelayed,becausethewholecyclehasnowbeenshiftedbytheextendedsolarminimum?

Asfarasmeasurementsareconcerned,ofcourseweweremeasuringthroughoutthatperiodandwemonitored theSun.Space-weatherenthusiastsandoperatorsdon’tgetveryexcitedduring that time,because nothing is happening on theSun,soeverythingelseisquiet.Duringthat time, everybody was complainingthat there was no activity on the Sun.“What’shappening?”wasaquestionwegotaskedalot.

Wehaveaperiodofsolardatawhichwe didn’t collect ourselves, which wehaveaccess to, and thewhole arrayofgeomagneticdatawhichwedidcollectourselves.Sonow, there isawhole re-searchstudyintowhetherit’spossibletomodeltheeffectsduringthesolarmini-mum.Whateffectsdidithaveoniono-spheric propagation?You don’t assumethatnothingisgoingon.Let’shavealookatthedata,andsee.

Andalso,whataretheeffectsnow?Ithinkit’sgoingtoopenupawholeinter-estingareaofstudynow,goingintothenextsolarmaximum,because I’veseenquite a few scientific papers comingthrough,wheretheyrefertotheextendedsolarminimumanditseffectonthemag-netosphere and on the ionosphere.They’re looking at the correlation be-tweendataduringthatperiod;butwe’realsolookingatwhathappensimmediate-lyafterthatperiod.

21st Century:The Sun doesn’t oftenmakefront-pagenews,butthisextendedsolarminimumwasveryheavilypubli-cized.

McKinnell:Yes.AndtheSunisgoingtobemakingmorefront-pagenewsinthecomingyears,aswegotowardsthesolarmaximum.BecausenowtheSunisget-tingmoreandmoreactive,andthesolarmaximum is predicted for the end of2012,beginningof2013.Thereisasix-monthuncertaintyontheprediction,be-causeofhowthesethingswork.Andthatpredictionhasbeenshiftedupbecauseoftheextendedsolarminimum.Allindi-cationsarethatthesolarmaximumwillbeatthesamelevelofthepreviousone.Themajorityofpredictionshaveshownthat,but,ofcourse,wedon’tknow.

Thedifferencebetweennowand11yearsago,isthatnowwearereallyde-pendent on technology that could bedisrupted by solar events. Now we doneedtobeaware.Elevenyearsago,weweredoingresearchonit,ofcourse,butit wasn’t making front-page news, andwe weren’t concentrating on the fore-castsandpredictions.Elevenyearsago,youusedanormalphone,orwaitedun-til you got home tomake a call.Nowthere is a good chance that you don’thaveaphoneathome,becauseyou’redependentonyour cell phone. Soourtechnological dependence has grown

Hermanus Magnetic Observatory

Hermanushasgraduatestudents fromalloverAfrica,andconductsoutreachpro-gramsforyoungerstudents(shownhere).

SPACEREPORT


remarkablyinthelast11years.That’swhyweneed tobeup-to-date

withspaceweather.That’swhyweneedregionalwarningcenters.That’swhyweneedpeoplewhoaretrainedtoforecastandpredict.Youknow,aresearcher—heknows his data—but most researcherscannotlookattheSunandtellyouex-actlywhatit’sgoingtodototechnologyinfourdays’time.Agoodforecastercan.Andthat’swhywearetryingtodevelopgoodforecastersheretoworkalongsidetheresearchersandinterpret.

21stCentury:I’dbetthatyourgoalistodobetterthantheweatherforecast-ers,whoareabout50percentaccurate!

McKinnell:...Thethingthatwedon’tfully understand yet, and we are stillgrappling with, is the history of data,keeping thehistoryofwhat’shappenedbefore.TheSun isverypredictable,ex-cept for the lower solar minimum, Iguess.Butevery11years,itwilldosome-thing.Wehaveallofthatsolardata,go-ingbacktothe1600s.There’saverygoodreasonwhyit’sbeenkept,andweshouldbekeepingours,andweare,bytheway,keeping our data as well as deliveringreal-timedata.

Archivingthedataisjustasfundamen-tally important.Thereallygoodmodelstake thephysics into account, but theyuse thehistoryanddata,ofwhatcamebefore,tohelpusdecidewhat’sgoingtocomeinthefuture.Andthat’salsogoingtoreally,reallyhelpus.

21st Century: It is quite remarkablethatthisdata,fromthe1600s,hasbeenpreserved.

McKinnell:Thecuriosityandtheneedfor scientific knowledge have alwaysbeenthere.Oneofthefirstthingsscien-tistsweresensitivetowasthepresenceoftheSun.And I think it’s great that theyhadthepresenceofmindtokeepit.AndI think it was scientific curiosity thatdrove that, rather than the thought that“400 years from now, they’re going towantthisdata.”

Typically,wedon’t use thedata from400yearsago;weonlyusethedatafromthreeorfoursolarcycles.Butthesunspotnumberdatabaseisthelongestarchiveddatabase,ever.Ionosphericdata,weonlystartedarchivinginthe’50s.Geomagnet-icdata, Idon’t thinkevengoesbackaslongasthat.Thereisalsothewholething

ofhowyoukeepandrecordthedata,andtechnologyhashelpeduswiththat.

21st Century:At the Hermanus Ob-servatory, how many people are in-volved?Doyouhavepeoplefromothercountries?

McKinnell:Absolutely.Wehaveanum-ber of international collaborations. It’sveryimportantforspacescience.Infact,nextweek,wearehostinganinternation-alworkshopof65delegates,60ofwhomcomefromothercountries.Sothisweek-endwearegoingtohaveahugeinfluxofvisitorstothefacilityandtoHermanus.

Ourpermanent staff isSouthAfrican,butwehavestudentsthatcomefromtherestofAfrica.OneofthewaysinwhichweworkwiththerestofAfricaisthroughtrainingandhelpingthemtobuildcapac-ityintheircountries,andtheexchangeofexpertise.Wearegoing tohaveat least25-30African scientists joining us nextweekfortheinternationalworkshop,allof whom are contributing in their ownright.Inourstudentexchange,wehaveanumber of students from other Africancountries,whoaregettingPh.D.sandMas-tersdegreesinspacescience,andwanttogobacktotheircountriesandworkinthespace-science programs. In any givenmonth,wehaveagoodflowofpeopletravelling and people coming in, and Ithinkthat’swhatkeepsthesciencealive.

TheSouthernHemisphere

21stCentury:TheInternationalAstro-nautical Congress here in Cape TownwasorganizedforallofAfrica,sothereisalargeroleforSouthAfricatoplayonthe continent.You have a special geo-graphicpositionglobally,butthereareothercountries,suchasinLatinAmeri-ca, thatarealsorelativelyclose to the

SouthPole.Arethereother,sister,obser-vatoriesintheSouthernHemisphere?

McKinnell:Argentina,Brazil,andAus-tralia have very vibrant space scienceprograms,andweworkverycloselywiththem.Twoyearsago,whenIneededtosendayoungpersontolearnaboutspaceweatheroperations,IsenthertoAustra-lia,because theyhavequitea fantasticspace weather center there, and theyknow about space weather forecastingintheSouthernHemisphere,andIwant-ed her to get a Southern Hemisphereperspective. They were very happy tohelp.

WerunaveryactiveprograminAnt-arctica. We have a suite of equipmentdownattheSouthAfricanNationalAnt-arcticExpeditionBase,andoneofthoseisinhighfrequencyradarwhichisusedtoobserveirregularitiesatthepoles.Itispart of the International Super DARN(DualAuroral Radar Network).We runoneoftheSouthernHemisphereradars.TheotheroneistheHalleyResearchSta-tionrunbytheU.K.Andthetwoofthemhaveoverlappingbeampatterns,whichallowsyoutoseeacertainkindofirregu-larities, which is the way that SuperDARN works. It’s an international net-workofpolarhighfrequencyradars.Wesend people down there every year, tolookaftertheequipmentandtomaintainit.It’sverymuchapartofwhatwedo.

SANAP

HermanusrunsanactiveprograminAntarctica.Here,AntarcticaSANAEIV:SouthAfrica’sbasestation.InsetisaGPSstationatthebase.

SANAP

SPACEREPORT


Decoding the Heavens: A 2,000-Year-Old Computer—and the Century-Long Search to Discover Its SecretsJo MarchantNew York: Da Capo Press, 2009Hardcover, 328 pp., $25.00

Toanyonewhohasevenatangentialinterest in the Antikythera mecha-

nism,IhighlyrecommendJoMarchant’sbookDecodingtheHeavens.Myinterestdates back to 1959, when Derek J. deSollaPricepublishedanarticleinScien-tificAmericanentitled“AnAncientGreekComputer.” I was amazed that such acomplexmechanismofantiquitywasnotbetter known. Unfortunately, it still re-mainsobscure.

Through theyears, thepublishedpa-person themechanismhave increasedasymptotically. JoMarchanthasdoneagreat service to the present generation,bycondensingandpresentingitinanin-terestingway.Iferventlyhopethisbookwillfinallycausetheteachingofhistorytonolongeromitthemostsignificantdis-coveryofantiquity,andallowittobegiv-entheemphasisitdeserves.

Here,Isummarizethestory,astoldinDecodingtheHeavensandselectedoth-

ersourceslistedintheBibliography.ThesagaoftheAntikytheraisaboutan

incredibly miraculous chain of events.Theendingisstillinprogress,butithasrevolutionizedourunderstandingofthegenius of antiquity.This report, for themostpart,isnotaboutmechanicaldetail,butratheraboutthepeoplewhostrivedtomaketheincomprehensiblecompre-hensible—andhowtheirliveswerefor-ever changed, as theyunraveled a cre-ation historians could not believe andstillhavetroubleaccepting.

Neverbeforehastherebeenadiscov-ery so long enshrouded in mystery,which, on being unraveled, resulted insuchanunparalleledshift in traditionalhistoricalthoughtregardingthegeniusofdeepantiquity.Withoutthisinformation,the world would have been left with afatefulhistoricalblunder.

HowItBeganMyinterestinthissagabeganinJune

1959,uponreadingthatarticleinScien-tific American entitled, “An AncientGreek Computer.” By contrast to menwholiterallygavetheirlivesinthestudyof themechanism,minewas limited intryingtokeepupwiththeliterature,andatriptoAthenstoseetheinstrumentin

person. Articles were few and far be-tweenforaboutthreedecades,graduallyleadingtoatrickleofinformation.

Then,about15yearsago,itbecameatorrent.Somuchso,youwouldthinkthateveryone in the world knew about theAntikytheramechanism.Buteventothisday,asmonumentalasthisobjectis,onefinds that most individuals have neverheardofit.

A 300-ton ship, laden with magnifi-centmarbleandbronzeGreekartifactssetsailfromPergamoninabout60B.C.,headed forRome.Thiswasaperiodoftransition in which the Roman Empirewas in ascendancy. The wealthy weredecoratingtheirvillaswithcovetedworksofGreekart,andthisshipwasfilledwithobjectstosatisfythedemand.

Onthisjourney,thefirstofalongse-ries of unanticipated events occurred.First, a great storm arose causing the

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AnEncrustedMystery:TheSagaOftheAntikytheraMechanismbyW.LeonardTaylor,M.D.

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Theharborat the islandofAntikythera,wherespongedivers in1900foundtheancientwreckfromca.60B.C.,withitsloadofGreekartifacts,includingthetorquetumdevice.


overloaded ship to take on water. Theshipandallitsartifactsbegantosink.Butinsteadofgoingtothebottom,theshipcametorestonanarrowledge,130feetbelowthesurface,onthesideofatinyisland,whereitlayavoidingdetectionformore than 2,000 years, while Empireswereformed,grew,andcrumbled.

Historianspontificated:Itwasuniver-sallyagreedthattheGreekscouldneverhavemadethemysteriousobject,whichwas subsequently found on board thatship.Thereinliesthecruxofthistale.Thehistoriansnowhavebeenprovenwrong,andthegeniusoftheGreekcivilizationhasbeenfirmlyestablished.Theimpactthishashadonunderstandingthescien-tificknowledgeoftheIronAgeisbeyondmonumental, as author Jo Marchantshows.

Duringthe2,000yearsitlayhiddeninthe sea, it escaped destruction, alongwithmanyothercreationsofthedemon-ized Greek civilization. So its watery2,000-yearsequestrationconstitutesan-otherlinkinthechainoffortunatecoin-cidences.

Thediscoverywasmadebyagroupofvery hard working sailors, who madetheirlivingharvestingsponges.Theirpro-

fession resulted in high mortality andmorbidity,becauseofadangertheyhadnowayofunderstanding.Theyknew,ofcourse,theagonizingafflictionsandfre-quentdeathoftheirfellowdivers,butthehighdemandforspongesmadeforhighincomesofthosethatsurvived.

This affliction we now know to becaused by bubbles from nitrogen dis-solvedinthebloodunderthepressureofthedeepwater.Thenitrogeninthedis-solvedstateisactuallynotthemaincauseoftheproblem.Itisratherduetoaphe-nomenonthemodernworldobservesev-erydayastheyopenacanofcarbonatedbeverage.Thereisaninstantaneousfor-mationofbubbles.

The bubbles that form as the can issnapped open are caused by the dis-solvedcarbondioxidegasthatwasforcedinto the liquid under pressure duringmanufacture. In the situation of thesponge divers, it is dissolved nitrogen,themainconstituentoftheairwebreathe,whichisforcedintothebloodstreamun-der thepressureof thedeepwater.Thereleaseofthispressure,likesnappingthelidofapopbottle,happensifthediversurfaces toorapidly,producingbubblesinthebloodstream.

The tiny bubbles aggregate, causingblockage of flow of blood through thesmall blood vessels.These small bloodvessels are precisely where oxygen istransferredtothetissues,tokeepthetis-suesalive.Thetissuesthenbecomene-crotic, resulting in agonizing pain anddeath.Thisconditionisknownclinicallyasthebends.

Sponge-diving had been a constantsourceofincomefrombeforethetimeofHomer,about1000B.C.Thediverscoulddescendto90feetbelowthesurface.Theduration of their dives was limited bytheirlungcapacity,so,ofnecessity,wasofshortduration.Thispreventedthediv-ers from developing the bends. Short-durationdivesarenotarisk,becauseittakestimeforthenitrogentogointoso-lution.

Thisallchangedin1837,whenapro-lificGermaninventorbythenameofAu-gustusSiebeinventedadivinghelmetat-tached to a watertight suit. Air waspumpeddownbyacompressor.Nowthediverscouldgodownto220feetandre-mainthere.Byabout1865,thesuitswerebroughttoSymi,thehomeofmostofthespongedivers.

Fortunesweremade.Ofcourse,itwasall too good to be true. No one thereknew at that time about the bends, al-though it had been described in the1840sinminers,andinpeopleworkingon the footing of bridges. The name“bends”camefromthetorturedbodypo-sition,someofwhichsimulatedapopu-larposeknownastheGratianBend.

Between1886and1920,about10,000diversdiedand20,000wereparalyzed.Onecanimaginetheadverseimpactthishad on the families and lives of thespongedivers.Subsequently,mostofthehelmets and the suits were abandonedthroughouttheMediterraneanSea.

TheDiscoveryA group of sponge divers, returning

from Tunisia in the Summer of 1900,riskeddeathbycontinueduseofthehel-met.Theytravelledinsmallboats,carry-ing15diverswhowouldshareonebat-tered helmet. When they reached thepassagebetweenCapeMaleaandCrete,they encountered a great gale. CaptainKontos,soughtshelteroffasmallisland.

Threedayslatertheshriekingwindintheriggingbegantoabateandcalmnessreturned to the surface. So there theywere,nexttothissmallisland,inaregion

AviewoftheAntikytheramechanismfoundintheancientship.

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notedforitslackofsponges.Theywere tired, with a boat full ofspongesgatheredinTunisia,andeager togohome.Then the lastthing one would have expectedhappened.

EliasStadiatis,oneof thediv-ers,hadanunusualthought.Wewillneverknowexactlywhy,buthedecidedtodive.

Thisdive foreverchanged theworld!Totheamazementofthoseondeckhesurfacedinjust5min-utes inaveryagitatedstate.Hewasconvincedthatashiphadre-centlysunkdepositingaheapofnaked women. Captain Kontosimmediatelywentdownanddis-covereda150-foot-longdepositof bronze and marble statues,corrodedandencrustedwithma-rinesediment.

Kontos resurfaced,carryingofallthings,abronzearm.Thefind-ingofabronzearmfromastatuegenerated tremendous excite-ment in Athens and throughoutGreece. The bronze arm datedthewreckagetobeat least2,000yearsold.

Withindays,aGreeknavytransport,bearing Kontos, his divers, and an ar-chaeologist,arrivedatthesite.ItwasNo-vember24,1900.As theartifactsweretransportedtotheNationalArchaeologi-calmuseum,crowdscamefromlongdis-tancestoseethetreasures,corrodedastheywere.Everyday,newspaperscarriedtheunfoldingdrama,inscintillatingde-tail. It was the largest find of ancientGreekbronzeseverfound.

Thenproblemsarose.Thediverswerehavingproblemsfindingmoreartifacts,partlybecausesomanyhadbeentakenout, and partly because large bouldersobscured theobjects.Thearchaeologistdetermined that thehugebouldershadbeen dislodged by an earthquake andfallenfromthecliffsabovethewater.

Aschemewasdevisedtopullseveralof these monstrous boulders over thesubterraneanledgeintotheabyssbelow,which extended down to 11,600 feet.Fortunately,anotherarchaeologist,Spyri-donStaïs,cameaboard.Hehadanotheridea. Could those boulders be colossalstatues so overgrown that the diverscouldnotrecognizethem.Andthatisex-actlywhattheywere!

For thenext40years, theexpertsar-guedtheageoftheartifacts,andwoundupwithaverywiderange,spanningthe2ndCenturyB.C.tothe3rdCenturyA.D.Therewasgreatinterestinknowingthedate,becausetakenoutwiththestatueswas an encrusted bronze mystery, thelikes of which had never before beenseen.

TheAntikytheraEmergesThe object would take more than a

centurytounravel.ItbecameknownastheAntikytheraMechanismbecausethesmallisland’sname,whereCaptainKon-toshadsoughtshelter,wasAntikythera.Thenamecomesfromtheisland’sclosephysicaldistance toa larger,nearby is-landbythenameofKythera.

Thencameanothercalamity.Bronze,whichis90percentcopperand10per-centtin,isrelativelysafesolongasitre-mainsinseawater.Haditbeenconstruct-edofiron,itwouldhavesoonbecomeanamorphouslumpofsludge.

Butbyafortunatecoincidenceofinor-ganicchemistry,seawaterreactswiththecopper in the bronze, forming copperchloride.Tininseawaterformstinoxide.Thetwocompoundsformathinprotec-tivefilmofcopperchlorideandtinoxideonthesurfaceofthebronze,protectingit

fromdamage.So itwouldseemthatallwaswell.

However,removingthebronzefromthesearesultsinaseriesofchemicalreactionsinwhichtheoxygen from the air, alongwithmoisture, reacts with copperchloride, forming hydrochloricacid.Thisacidattackstheunder-lyingbronze to formmorecop-perchloride,whichagainreactswiththeoxygenintheairtoformmorehydrochloricacid.Thiswillgo on forever destroying thebronzeandwhateverobjectitismadeinto.

Thisfatenearlybecameareal-ity as this object remained in acrateintheopencourtyardoftheNational Archaeology Museum.It could have remained unno-ticed and would have self de-structed,exceptbyachanceco-incidence of a museum workereight months later, who pickedup the decaying lump and car-ried it to the museum director,ValoriosStaïs.

The outer layers of the artifact hadbeencompletelydestroyed.Theslight-esttouchcausedthepowderymaterialtocrumble beyond recognition. Staïs wasanambitiouswell-trainedindividualwhohadstudiedmedicineandarchaeology,and became director of the prestigiousArchaeologicalMuseumattheageof30.Since1889,hehadbeenworkingonar-ranginganddisplayingtheartifacts thatfoundtheirwaytoAthens.

This objectwas completely different.Hehadneverseenanythinglikeit.Rec-ognizablegearwheelswerepresent.Au-thor Marchant comments, “The overalleffect was eerie and otherworldly, likefindingasteamengineontheancientpit-tedsurfaceoftheMoon.”

Thecogsandgearshadsmallcarefullycraftedteeththatrequiredamagnifyingglass tocount. Staïswasoverwhelmed.Thismechanismhad tobe2,000yearsold.Butitcouldn’tbe.Nothinglikeithadeverbeforebeendiscoveredinantiquity.Besides, theGreekswerenot supposedto have this degree of sophistication.Clockworksdidn’tshowupinEuropeforanother1,000years.

Staïsknewhewasinoverhishead.Hemade contact with two expert consul-tants:JohnSvoronos,directoroftheNa-

An1873newspaper illustrationof theSiebediving in-vention,whichmadeitpossibleforspongediverstode-scend200ormorefeet.


tional Numismatic Museum of Athens,andoneofthemostseriousarcheologistsinGreece;andAdolfWilhelm,abrilliantyoung Austrian expert in inscriptions,whowasinAthensatthetime.

Wilhelmdeterminedthedevicetobedatedbetweenthe2ndCenturyB.C.andthe 2nd Century A.D., while Svoronasdatedittothefirsthalfofthe3rdCenturyA.D.SvoronasworkedwithPericlesRe-diadis, a professor of geodesy and hy-drography,whoprovidedthefirsttechni-cal account of what he called “thiscompletelystrangeinstrument.”

Svoronas noted that the instrumentwascarriedinawoodenbox,anddecid-editwasnotapieceofcargo,butratheranavigational instrument.HeputgreatweightonaveryunusualtechnicalGreekwordreferringtoagraduatedscale.Thislaunchedspeculationthatthisobjectwassomesortofastrolabe,aninstrumentdat-ingbackintoantiquity,whichcouldfindthetimeandpositionoftheSunandstars.Astrolabeswerenotusedaboardshipstoanygreatextent,astheycouldnotgivelongitudeorlatitude.

NotanAstrolabeDuringthenextfewyears,scholarsat

variousarchaeologicalinstitutesbecameinvolved in trying to understand whatthisdevicewas.Thebattleheatedupastowhetherthiswasorwasnotamodifi-cation of the Astrolabe. Then, AlbertRehm,aninvestigatorfromtheUniver-sityofMunich,discoveredapreviouslyhiddenGreekword,“Pynchon.”DerivedfromanancientEgyptianCalendar,Pyn-chonmeansmonth.

Astrolabes had nothing to do withmonths; therefore, the mechanism hadnothingtodowithAstrolabetechnology,asMarchantdiscusses.

Theworkontheobjectwascomplete-lystalledby theFirstWorldWar.Then,John Theophanidis, an admiral in theGreek Navy, became interested, andfound what he thought was a zodiacscale.HebecameconvincedthattheAn-tikytherawasanavigationalinstrument.Hespentmanyyearsstudyingandana-lyzingtheinscriptions,andconstructingamodelofthegearwork.Hisworkbe-camesopassionatethathesoldhisrealestateinthecenterofAthenstofinancehisresearch.But,unfortunately,hedidn’tpublish,andhisyearsofworklayhiddeninpilesofpapersafterhisdeath.

Many other individuals subsequently

madecontributions,buttheirstorymustregrettablybeomittedfromthisreview.Inthemeantime,AlbertRehm,whohadfoundtheword“Pynchon,”hadbecomearectorattheUniversityofMunich.Hisincreasing recognitioncameduring theriseofHitler,andheeventuallylosthispositionbecauseofhishostility toHit-ler.

After the war, Rehm was reinstated,onlytolosehispositionagainin1946,after a disagreement with the new au-thorities regarding the importance ofclassical studies in German education.Despitehisacademicdissonance,fortherestofhislife,Rehmconstantlystudiedand analyzed the geared mechanism.Butitsmysteryeludedhim;thekeystonepaperwasneverpublished,andhediedin1949.

During the Second World War, thispricelessmechanismwasingreatperilastheNazi invasionofGreeceputevery-thinginthemuseumatrisk.Themuseumstaff hid objects in caves and in bankvaults,buriedtheminundergroundde-posits,orhidthemunderthefloorsofthemuseum and covered them with sand.Afterthewar,ittook20yearstogetthemuseumbacktogether.Intheconfusion,manyoftheartifactshadbeenlost.But,by another miracle, the Antikytheramechanismsurvived.

The previous excitement was gone,however,andthedevicewaslargelyfor-gotten, languishing in the bottom of astoreroombox.

MoreDiscoveriesDuringthe20yearsthatthemuseum

wasreorganizing,importantthingswerehappening.JacquesCousteauandFred-ericDumasvisitedtheunderwaterledgewith their improved diving equipment,once in1953andagain in1976.Theyfoundadditionalobjects,buttheirmaincontributionwasachancefindingoftwostacksofcoins,onesilverandtheotherbronze.These finds resolved the ques-tionsofpreviouseffortstodatethesink-ingoftheship,andtodeterminewhereithadbeenbeforeitdepartedonitsill-fatedvoyage.

Inscriptionsonthecoinstellwhois-suedthem.Thisinformation,alongwiththefactthatthecoinsdonotstayincircu-lation forvery long,helps todeterminedate,betterthananythingelse.Thesilvercoins were from the city of Pergamonandhadtheinitialsofarulerwhoruled

in Pergamon from 85 to 76 B.C. Thebronze coins were from Ephesus, 100milessouthofPergamon,andweredatedfrom70to60B.C.

During this period, an American ar-chaeologist, Peter Throckmorton, wasworkingat themuseum inAthens, andoneofhisgoalswastogetafragmentofwood fromtheboat testedby radiocar-bondating.Hehadanimpatientperson-alitythatdidnotalwaysfollowacceptedprotocols, and was frustrated that themuseumstaffrefusedtolethimtakeawaysomeofthewoodfromAthens.

However,hemanagedtospiritawayatinyfragmenttothelaboratoryofEliza-bethRalph,inAmerica,oneofaveryfewscientistswhoknewthetechniqueofra-diocarbondating.The radiocarbondat-ingoftheboatgaveanageof260B.Cto180B.C.Keepinginmindthattheboatwasmadeofwoodolder than theboatitself,andthattheboathadlikelybeensailingforsometimebeforeitsank,thereis excellent correlation of the radiocar-bonandcoindates.

Of interest is the construction of theboat. It was similar to techniques thathadlastedfor3,000years.Incontrasttothemodern, less expensive techniques,inwhichtheframesarebuiltbeforetheplanking,inthisboat,thehullwasbuiltfirstandthentheframe.Furthermore,thehull was built with the labor-intensivemortiseand tenonconstructionused infine furniture, which made for a verystrongsturdyship.

Another captivated individual wasDerekJ.deSollaPricewhosearticlehadcaught my attention in 1959. He wasbornin1922inEngland,andobtainedaPh.D.degreeinexperimentalphysicsatage24.HewentontoobtainasecondPh.D. degree in the history of science.ThenhecametotheUnitedStatesasaconsultanttotheSmithsonianInstitution,andafellowoftheInstituteofAdvancedStudies in Princeton, spending the re-mainderofhislifeatYaleUniversity.

Price took interest in theAntikytheraMechanismin1951.Hisgreatcontribu-tion,inadditiontounderstandingthisin-strument, was to popularize it. Despitehis work in other areas of science, theAntikythera mechanism was always onhismind.He spent inordinateamountsof time counting the teeth in the gearsandattemptingtomakesenseoftheirin-terrelation.Pricesaid:“Nothinglikethe

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instrument is preserved elsewhere. Onthecontrary,forallthatweknowofsci-enceandtechnology,itcouldnotexist.”

Price did not win friends by tellingthosewhohadcarefullystudiedasubjectalltheirlivesthattheywerewrong.Butheknewthathisownconclusionshadahighchanceoferrorbecauseofhislim-itedinformation.Whenhereadatechni-calreportfromtheOakRidgeNationalLaboratory on how gamma rayscouldbeusedtostudyarcheologi-cal objects without destroyingthem,hewrotetothelabdirector,Alvin Weinberg. Weinberg putPriceincontactwitharadiographylabinAthens.

Assooftenhappensinscience,such networking leads to a majordiscovery.Deepwithintheencrust-ed object were even more geartrainsthanhadbeenexpected.Get-tingthenewlydiscoveredgearstomakesenseintermsoftheperiodsof theSunandMoon ledPrice toonlyoneconclusion:Hewascon-vincedthathewaslookingatadif-ferentialgeartrain!

EnterMichaelWrightWithoutPrice’s enthusiasmand

drive, it may have taken decadeslongertopieceeverythingtogether.Price’slastpaper,“Gearsfromthe

Greeks,”sparkedanotherlife-longobses-sion with the Antikythera Mechanism.This time, the torch was passed to Mi-chaelWright,a26-year-oldassistantcu-ratoratLondon’sScienceMuseum.Pricemoved on to computer technology andartificialintelligence,whileWrightscruti-nizedeverydetailofPrice’spublications.

Questionsaroseaboutthedifferentialgears supposedly used to calculate the

phasesoftheMoon.TheemphasisPricehadgiveninhisearlierScientificAmeri-canarticletothemotionoftheplanets,washardlymentioned.In1983,Wrightwanted to discuss things with Price onhisnextvisittotheScienceMuseum,butunfortunately, just at that time, Pricedied.

AsWrightstudiedPrice’swork,moreandmoredetailsworriedhim.Inparticu-lar,he found thatPricehaddiscountedand altered many of the tooth counts.Wrighthadstudiedcarefullytheancientclocks in theScienceMuseumandun-derstoodgeartrainswell.Price’sconclu-sionsdidn’tmakeanysense.

Pricehadarguedthataparticulardialexhibiteda4-yearcycle,butWrightnot-edthatthemechanismhad7gearsandadialof7concentric rings.Why,Wrightwondered, did someone go to all thetrouble?Pricehada lotof insights,butWright could see that he had barelyscratchedthesurface.AsWrightdreamedofgoingtoAthens,hestudiedancientas-tronomyandbrusheduponhisGreek.

Then,anenergeticastrophysicistfromtheUniversityofSydney,AllanG.Brom-ley,cameintoWright’slife.Hisexpertisewasinterstellargas,whichrequiredhigh-powercomputing,andsohestudiedthehistoryofcomputation.Inthecourseofthiswork,hebecameawareofCharlesBabbage,whohadworkedwith the fa-mous astronomer John Herschel in theearly1800s.

AnX-rayimageoftheAntikytheragearswithoneofWright’sgeardiagrams.

MichaelWright,acuratorattheLondonScienceMuseum,whobecamefascinatedwiththeAntikytheramechanism,andspentyearspiecingtogetherthepuzzleofhowitworked,andwhatitspurposewas.Thephotoisfromhispresentation,“TheGreekPlan-etarium:ANewReconstructionoftheAntikytheraMechanism,”anAmericanInstituteofArchaeologyLectureProgram,attheAdlerPlanetariuminChicago,October2006.


Through Herschel, Babbagesaw the tremendous need forpreciseastronomicaltables.SoBabbage, then a 29-year-oldmathematician,beganaprojecttodojustthat.Hefillednumer-ous notebooks with notes anddrawings of his ideas, and theBritish government paid a for-tunetoBabbagetoproducethismachine.

Althoughnoneof thesema-chineswascompleted,theLon-donScienceMuseumheldthelargest collection of Babbage’swork, and Bromley wouldspend his Summer vacationsthere in London. By the mid-1980s, he understood enoughofBabbage’snotestostartcon-struction,buthehadquestionsabouthowthepartswouldhavetobemadeandassembled.

Wright, a highly intelligentcuratorandamastercraftsman,knowingclocksinsideandout,wasassignedtoworkwithBromleyonas-sembling one of Babbage’s calculatingmachines.WithWright’sinsights,amostambitiousscientificreconstructionbegan,costing a quarter of a million Britishpounds.ByNovember1991, theircom-puterturnedoutitsfirstcalculation,onemonth before the bicentennial celebra-tionofBabbage’sdeath.DuringBromley’smanyvisitstotheLondonMuseumofSci-enceheandWrightbecamefriends,andWrightintroducedtheAntikytheraMech-anismtoBromley.

Atthesametime,Wrighttalkedofhisdream to go to Athens and study themechanismfirsthand.Price’spaperwasdiscussedandWrightindicatedtheareaswhere Price had gone wrong. Immedi-ately,likemanybeforehim,Bromleybe-cametotallycaptivated.Hismindbegantoformanewplanofaction.Hewouldbethefirstmantosolveitsmystery.

Bromley returned to Sydney and puttogetheraworkingalternativesequenc-ingofthegears.Wright,bycontrast,wasevenmorerapidlylosingfaithinPrice’sreconstructions. Just before Christmas1989, Bromley suddenly burst intoWright’s office announcing he had justreturnedfromAthenswherehehadob-tainedpermissiontoworkontheAntiky-theramechanism!

ThiswasmorethanWrightcouldbear.

Howcould thisman fromAustralia,hisfriend and confidant, steal his ideas?TherewasawrittencodeofGreekantiq-uitiesthatnoresearchercouldbeginworkon an artifact until the person alreadyworkingonithadfinished.ButthenthenatureofWright’scharacteranddedica-tionbroke though,overrodehisdepres-sion.HewenttoBromleyandaskedifhecouldgotoAthens—ashisassistant.

Bromley agreed, and for thenext 30days they photographed and measuredeverythingindetail.ItbecameclearthatPricewaswronginmanyimportantde-tails,andhismodelhadtobediscarded.Additionally,anewfragmentwasdiscov-ered, not known to Price. Standard X-raysweretakenofeveryfragment.Butforunexplained reasons, the images werefoggedanddiscolored.Theteamranoutoftimeandleftdisappointed.

LaterinEngland,Bromleygavealec-turetotheAntiquarianHorologySociety,and referred to theprojectas if itwereentirely his. Despite this belittling ofWright,Bromley’slecturehadapositiveoutcome. Intheaudiencewasaretiredphysician who had a real interest inPrice’sworkandhadattemptedarecon-struction,Dr.AlanPartridge.

Partridge suggested they use a tech-niquecalled linear tomography thathehadusedtolocatebulletsandshrapnel.

Withit,theX-rayscouldbere-constructed to seedeeply intothe interior of a human at se-quential levels. Wright thenstudied tomography and builtan improved linear tomographsuitable for metal. It workedbeautifully,resultinginseparat-ingthelayerstolessthanatenthofamillimeter.

The next year, Bromley andWright were back in AthenswithWright’s tomography ma-chine.TheirfirsttaskwastofindoutwhytheX-rayimageswerefogged.The culprit was an in-crediblycarelesstechnicianus-ing extremely old chemicals.Wrighttookoverthedarkroomwork while Bromley took thephotographs.TheyrepeatedthisroutineeveryWinter,andafterthreeyears,theyhadtakenandprocessed 700 exposures.Wright knew that the filmswouldprovidetheanswer.

But then Bromley dropped a bomb-shell:HewastakingthetomographicX-raysbacktoSydney,leavinginFebruary1994. After five years of hard work,Wright was horrified and totally de-pressed.The years went by, and corre-spondencefromBromleyhadtrickledtoastop,whenanunexpectedlettercamefromBromley’swife.“Ifyouwanttoseehim,youhavetocomesoon.”AfteraninvitationarrivedfromBromleyhimself,Wright left for Australia in November2000,withgreatmisgivings.

Itwasnearly10yearssincetheyhadbeguntheirworktogetherandsixyearssincehehadseenBromley.Hisonagain/offagainfriendwasdyingofHodgkin’slymphoma,buteventhenBromleytena-ciouslyrefusedtoreleasethefilms.Mer-cifully,Bromley’swifeintervened,allow-ingWright to bring the majority of thefilmsback toEngland.Bromleydied inSeptember2002.

BackinEngland,Wrightwasworkingnights andweekendspublishing signifi-cant discoveries. By now, Wright’s sonwasatOxfordUniversitywherehehadtheequipmenttoscantheradiographsathighresolution.Attheendof2003,thingswerereallystartingtomove.Wrightdis-coveredwhatisknownasapinandslotcomponent in the mechanism, whichpredatedby1,500yearsanythinglikeitin

Wright’shandsomeworkingmodeloftheAntikytheramech-anism.

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Europe.Then,anotherAntiky-

thera-obsessed scientistcame on the scene, anEnglish mathematicianand filmmaker, TonyFreeth. With the urgingofMikeEdmonds,chiefof astronomy at CardiffUniversity, Freeth wastrying to get access tothe fragments, but ac-cordingtoprotocol,thiswas not possible whileWright’sworkwasongo-ing. Freeth had readPrice’spublications,and,likeWright,sawthatthedetailsdidn’taddup.

Soon Freeth was be-yondobsessed;notonlywashegoingtomakeafilm about it, but also,likeBromley,hewasde-terminedtobethemantosolvethemystery.Ashe researched the proj-ecthebecameawareofWright’spubli-cations, and mistakenly considered thetechniquetoocrudetobeuseful.Butthisledhimintodiscoveringtheusefulnessofmicro X-ray imaging, and Roger Had-land’sX-TecCompanythatmademicroX-rayequipment.

Freethalso readabout the incredibletechniquedevelopedatHewlett-PackardbyTomMalzbender,whichmadeitpos-sibletoreadunreadableancientclaytab-letsfromthe4thMillenniumB.C.Malz-benderwasworkingincomputergraphicsin Southern California. So, Freeth hadtwo state-of-the-art companies to workon theAntikytheramechanism—buthehad no money, and no permission tostudythemechanism!

Freethintensivelylobbiedthesciencecommunity,andamassedateamofsci-entists,includingGreece’smosteminentastronomerandastrophysicistattheUni-versityofAthens,andthedirectoroftheCenterforHistoryandPaleontology.By2005,theteamhadpersuadedthesoon-to-be-founder of Unilever to fund theproject.

Togainaccesstothemechanism,theastrophysicist ceaselessly lobbied theGreek Ministry of Culture, and throughhispersistence,inJune,theMinistryfinal-lypermittedFreethtohaveaccesstothe

fragments for themonthof September. Thisbrought the high dramaoftheAntikytheramech-anism to a head. It was2006,andWright,afteralifetimeofwork,wasveryclosetosolvingthemys-tery.

Meanwhile, Freethhad to convince RogerHadland at the X-TecCompanytomakeasuit-able X-ray machine forinvestigating the frag-ments.This would haveto be two times morepowerful than anythingin the world, and ordi-narilywouldtaketwotothreeyearstobuild.Had-land accepted the chal-lenge.Heshutdowntheotherworkofhiscompa-ny and put all his re-searchanddevelopmentstaffonthenewproject.

FreethwasinastateofpanicasSep-temberapproached.WouldHadlandbeabletoproducetheequipmentnecessaryto do the job? Freeth’s anxiety was in-creasingasWright’spaperssystematical-lyweretakingthewrapsoffthegreatar-cheological secret, and Freeth worriedthat therewouldn’t be anything else todiscoverbythetimetheycouldbringallhisteam’sexpertisetogether.

Thenin theprocessof improving themuseum catalogs, another three largefragmentsandmanysmall fragmentsofthemechanismwerefound,foratotalof82!IfthesefragmentshadbeenavailabletoWright, he probably would have bythattime,solvedthemystery.ItwasnowSeptember2006,andtheX-raymachinelayinpiecesalloverHadland’sresearchfloor in England. Malzbender was al-ready inAthens, and in seven days hehadtaken4,000photographs.

Hadland’steamwasworkingnightandday,withonlyoneweekleft.Buttheme-tersonhismachinewereregisteringonlyonetenththevoltageneeded.Whenheyankedacablefromthegenerator,therewasa terrificexplosion.Fortunately,noonewashurt.Thenear-lethalexplosiontold Hadland that the generator wasworkingjustfine,andthefaultmustbeintherecordinginstruments.

Inwhatseemstobeamiracle,withintwo days the apparatus was fixed andpackagedforshipment—all12tonsofit.After truck transport across Europe, the20-meter long rig made it to Athens,whereitrequiredapoliceescorttoclearthenarrowstreetsoftraffic.Withtheaidof three forklifts, all theequipmentwasfinallypackedintotheresearchroom.Inonehour,Hadlandcollected3,000 im-ages,andthenscannedallthefragments.

The pictures were spectacular, withresolutiondowntoafewthousandthsofamillimeter.Freeth’steamhadincreasedthenumberof legiblecharacters toap-proximately3,000. It isestimated therewereoriginally15,000.Theyfoundthatoperating instructions were written di-rectlyontheinstrument!

Freeth’smajorcontributioncameinre-alizingthattheapparatushadthecapa-bility of predicting eclipses. And sixmonths later,herealized thatalsobuiltintoitsgears,withthepinandslot,wasthemeasurementofanine-yearlunarcy-cle,trackingitsellipticalorbitaroundtheEarth.Wrighthadpredictedit,andFreethhadprovedit.

FreethsetupaconferenceinAthenstoannouncehisfindingsonNov.29,2006,andhe invitedWright to speak.WrighthadcompletedhisworkingmodeloftheAntikytheramechanism,topresentattheconference.Morethan500peoplewerein attendance, and they gave Freeth astandingovation.

Wrightthengaveahalf-hourpresenta-tion:“...Ihaveconducted[myresearch]onmyowntimeandmyowncostintheface of professional and personal diffi-culties:intrigue,betrayal,bullying,injuryandillness,lossofyearsofmydata,thelongillnessanddeathofmycollaborator,andmore....”ThenWrightpaused,andsaid,“Evenso,Iamstillhere.”

Wright challenged Freeth on severalpoints,whichalthoughcontestedatthetime,werelaterfoundtobetrue.Atdin-nerthatnight,Wright,Freeth,Hadland,Malzbender and others were sitting atthe same table.The encrusted mysteryhadfinallygivenup“most”ofitssecrets,andhistorywasrewritten.

Iusetheword“most,”becausethereisat leastonemoreconsideration.This isrelatedtoaproposalby21stCenturySci-ence&TechnologyAssociateEditorRickSandersthatthedevicehadthepotentialto determine longitude aboard ship. I

Mathematicianandfilmmak-erTonyFreeth,whoalsotookup the challenge of solvingthe Antikythera mystery. Heraisedthefundstoprovidethenew technology of micro X-rayimagingtoscantheAnti-kythera fragments, providingimageswithresolutiondowntoafewthousandthsofamil-limeter.


havebeeninpersonalcontactwithSand-ersregardingthisproposalbecauseofmyinterest in celestial navigation. He hasstudiedhowtheancientsusedtheMooninthedeterminationoflongitude.

Thestory,astoldin21stCenturymag-azine, is thataround232B.C.,CaptainRata and Navigator Maui set out fromEgypttocircumnavigatetheEarth.Maui’sexpeditionwasundertheguidanceofEr-atosthenes, who had, by other means,determinedtheEarthtobeaspherewithacircumferenceof24,500miles.Mauihadwithhimanancientnavigationalin-strument that he called aTanawa, latercalledaTorquetum,andhewouldhaveused tables brought from AlexandriadrawnupbyEratosthenes.

Ifaknownstarisinagivenpositiononthe celestial sphere (measured by azi-muthandrightascension),atablecanbedrawn up at a given location for eachnight,showinghowdistanttheMoonap-pearstobefromthestar.Andfromthis,alongitudecanbedetermined.Weknowthat Maui and Rata travelled as far asIrianJaya,inWesternNewGuinea.Here,thereisacave,onthewallsofwhicharedrawings, left by Maui, of hisTanawa.Alsoonthewallswaswrittenoutaproofof Eratosthenes’ experiment tomeasuretheEarth’scircumference.

Farthereast, inChile,moreevidenceof Maui’s trip is reported. DiscoveriesweremadeonPitcairnIsland,withevi-dencethattheyweretheretoobserveaneclipsepredictedbyEratosthenes.

The Antikythera mechanism, as weknow,wasconstructedwiththemotionoftheMoonintegratedinamazingdetail,includingitsellipticalorbitandoscilla-tions. From the work of Wright andFreeth,weknowtheinstrumentwasca-pable of depicting the positions of thestars,theplanets,theSun,andtheMoon,andinpredictingtheeclipsesoftheSunandMoon,aswellasgivingthedatesoftheOlympicgames.Butwhy,asSandersasks,wassomuchattentiongiventotheintricate detail of the Moon’s celestialmechanics.Whatwould justify thecre-ationofa“MountPalomar”instrument,tobecarriedonaship?

Wasitthereascargo,ormoreimpor-tantly,wasitanaidtonavigation?Fromanavigationalstandpointithastwosignifi-cantcapabilities:oneistopredicteclips-esandtheothertoforecastlunardistanc-esamongthestarsandplanets,bothofwhich are critical for determination oflongitude. As noted earlier, one musthavetablesasapointofreferencetore-ducethesights.Theadvantageofagearedmechanismisthatitprovidesaportable

almanac,whichwouldmaketablesunnecessary.

Inmoderntimes,weknowthatin1802, Nathaniel Bowditch pub-lishedacomprehensiblemethodbywhich the Moon could be used todetermine longitude. This revolu-tionizedthespicetradeandprovid-edagreateconomicadvantage forthenewlyformedUnitedStates.

It wasn’t until accurate, afford-able mechanical clocks capable ofmaritime use were introduced in1850,thattheMoonwasnolongerused for longitude determination.Sanders’sworkwiththeTorquetum,usingtheMooninthedeterminationoflongitude,shouldrefocusdiscus-siononlongitudeastherealreasonfortheAntikytheramechanism.

Dr.TaylorhasbeenaPathologistatRedlands Community Hospital for46years.ForthemajorityofthistimehehasbeentheChiefofPathologyandMedicalDirectoroftheDepart-mentofPathology.

Selected Bibliography _____________________Bertram Cooper and Rick Sanders, 2001. “Building

and Using Maui’s Tanawa,” 21st Century Sci-ence & Technology (Fall 2001).

Tony Freeth, Alexander Jones, John M. Steel and Yanis Bitsaklis, 2008. “Calendars with Olympiad Display and Eclipse Prediction on the Antiky-thera Mechanism,” Nature, Vol. 454 (July 3), pp. 52-60.

T. Freeth, 2009. “Decoding An Ancient Computer,” Scientific American (Dec.).

Charles Freeman, 2002. The Closing of the Western Mind: The Rise of Faith and the Fall of Reason (New York: Vintage Books).

Richard A. Paselk, March 16, 2011. “The Torque-tum.”

Ross Perfect, “Pitcairn Island Petroglyphs Deci-phered,” 2001. 21st Century Science & Technol-ogy (Winter 2001).

Derek J. de Solla Price, 1959. “An Ancient Greek Computer,” Scientific American (June), pp. 60-67.

Rob S. Rice, 1995. “The Antikythera Mechanism: Physical and Intellectual Salvage from the 1st Century B.C,” USNA Eleventh Naval History Symposium Paper for Collected Volume.

Rick Sanders, 2001. “Ancient Navigators Could Have Measured Longitude in Egypt in 232 B.C. !” 21st Century Science & Technology (Fall).

Rick Sanders, 2003. “Was the Antikythera an An-cient Instrument for Longitude Determination?” 21st Century Science & Technology (Spring).

John Seabrook, 2007. “Fragmentary Knowledge,” The New Yorker (May 14).

W. Leonard Taylor, 2001. “America’s First Mathema-tician Astronomer and Philosopher: Nathaniel Bowditch.” Presentation at the Fortnightly Club Meeting, March 29, Number 1649.

World Mysteries: Strange Artifacts/Antikythera Mechanism, 2002.

FragmentsoftheAntikytheramechanismondisplayattheNationalArchaeologicalMu-seumofAthens.Ashortfilmofthemechanismcanbefoundhereandhere.Avirtualre-constructionofthemechanismbyWrightandMogiVincentinicanbefoundhere.

BOOKS

http://users.humboldt.edu/rpaselk/EarlySciInstSite/Instruments/Torquetum/Turq.html

http://users.humboldt.edu/rpaselk/EarlySciInstSite/Instruments/Torquetum/Turq.html

http://ccat.sas.upenn.edu/rrice/usna_pap.html



http://www.world-mysteries.com/sar_4.htm

http://www.world-mysteries.com/sar_4.htm

http://www.antikythera-mechanism.gr/data/ct

http://www.decodingtheheavens.com/thedevice.aspx

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqhuAnySPZ0&feature=player_embedded#


Out of This World: New Mexico’s Contributions to Space Travelby Loretta HallLos Ranchos, N.M.: Rio Grande Books, 2011Paperback, 175 pp., $19.95www.LPDPress.com

When the Massachusetts State FireMarshal banned Robert Goddard

fromlaunchinganymorerocketsinthatstatein1929,littledidheknowthathewould set into motion a multi-billion-

dollarspaceanddefenseindustryinNewMexico.OneofGoddard’srocketshadsetfiretosomegrassnearthecityofWorces-ter,Mass.,onJuly17thatyear,afteritrosea mere 90 feet before landing 170 feetfromthe“launch”site,anoldwindmill.

After securing funding from DanielGuggenheim,viaCharlesLindbergh,Jr.,Goddard moved one train-carload ofequipment to a desolate southeasternsectionofNewMexico,nearRoswell.Inthenext10years,Goddardperfectedhis

rocketrytothepointwherehislastrock-et,in1937,reached9,000feetaltitudein7seconds.By1935,hisrocketshadbro-kenthesoundbarrier.

ThisbooktellsthestoryofNewMexi-co’sroleinspace,fromthebeginningtothe present. It has some excellent pic-tures of these early rockets, which fea-tured liquid fuels, gyroscopes, and ad-vanced engineering, all designed inGoddard’sownmachineshop.

AsWorldWarIIinterruptedGoddard’sresearch and development of rocketry,anotherscientist,RobertOppenheimer,organizedtheManhattanProjectinLosAlamostoconstructtheatombomb.ThetestbombwasdetonatedinJuly1945,inthissamedesolateNewMexicodesert,called the “White Sands MissileRange.”

AftertheendofthewarinEurope,inAugust1945,300train-carloadsofGer-manV-2 rocket components arrived atthe White Sands Proving Grounds inTheAlamogordoSpaceHistoryMuseumoverlookingWhiteSandsMissileRange.

NewMexico’sRoleinSpacebyGlennMesaros

TheremainsofaV2rocketondisplayattheMuseum(left)andanF1rocketengine.


southernNewMexico,followedsoonbyseveral hundred German rocket scien-tists,ledbyWernerVonBraun.

ThenewlyassembledU.S.rocketpro-gramlaunched67V-2rocketstherebe-tween 1946 and 1951, some reaching132milesaltitude.Oneof thecharred

V-2rocketremainsisnowfeaturedasanexhibitinfrontoftheAlamogordoSpaceHistorymuseum.

Scientistsusedtheselaunchesforthefirst-ever space age experiments of theupperatmosphere,anditseffectsonev-erythingfromfruitfliestocornseed.

WhenWernerVon Braun moved histeam to Huntsville, Alabama in 1951,NASAutilizedtheNewMexicoareaandR&Dfacilities forcertainaspectsof theMercuryprogram.TheU.S.governmentbuilt twohugescience labsatLosAla-mosandSandia,whichcontinuetoday.

Women Astronomers: Reaching for the Starsby Mabel ArmstrongMarcola, Ore.: Stone Pine Press, Inc., 2008Paperback, 288 pp., $16.95

Mabel Armstrong has written a re-freshing and inspiring tale of tri-

umphforteenagereadersaboutpioneer-ingfemaleastronomerswhomadegreatcontributionsinscience,andwhodared tochal-lengemanyassumptionsoftheday.

Thisisnotafeel-goodbook, however, and infact is a bit alarming,sinceoverandoveragainthese most promisingwomen found that theirbiggestadversarieswereoften the prestigiousuniversities and ivorytower research institu-tionswhichusedblatant,heavy-handed tactics todiscriminateagainstwomenandprotecttheir“BigBang”-stylesacredcows.

The joy of discovery—that uniquelyhumanquality—wasusuallytheonlyre-liableallyforthesefemaleheroes,whoseliveswerenotaboutpersonalambition,fame,orfortune.

For thousands of years, women havebeenattheforefrontofastronomy.Inthefamous library at Alexandria, Egypt,Hypatia(370-415),adedicatedfollowerofSocratesandPlato,designedtheastro-

labefornavigation,alongwithatableofpositionsofstarsthatwasusedformorethan 1,200 years by sailors around theworld.

Caroline Herschel (1750-1848) andherbrother,William,hadtwogreatpas-sions, music and astronomy, and theybuilt theworld’s largest telescope,con-sidered tobe the eighthwonderof theworldatthetime.TheydiscoveredUra-nus,comets,andnumerousnebulae,but

it was Caroline’s rigor-ousmethodthatbecamethe foundation of mod-ernobservationalastron-omy.

AmericanWomenAstronomers

MariaMitchell(1818-1889)wasthefirsttodis-coveracometinAmeri-ca, but had to defy theauthoritiesatVassarCol-lege, where she washead of the astronomydepartment,tocarryouther work. She objected

to the rules from theVassar principal,whichwereobsessivelyconcernedwithcreatingproperladiesinsteadofenthusi-astic learners. Mitchell violated manyrules including thecampuscurfews,bycallingherclassat3A.M.toseealunareclipse.

Henrietta Swan Leavitt (1868-1921),anexpertonvariablestars,wasreducedtoworkingasahumancomputer(doingthe tedious and time-consuming astro-nomicalcalculations)atHarvard’sobser-

vatory, yet she discovered a method ofmeasuringthesizeofourgalaxyandtheuniverse,whichwasconsideredtohavebeenthegreatestscientificadvancementin10years.

Many thought that she had the bestmindinthedepartment,butshewasper-sonallybarredbythedepartmenthead,Edward Pickering from more advancedastronomyclassesatHarvard.Somesaythat research of variable stars was setbackseveraldecadesbythisdecision.

Another “computer,”AntoniaCaetanaMaury(1866-1952),leftHarvardbecausesheusedspectrogramstolearnabouten-tirelifecyclesofstarsandtheircomposi-tion,whilethedepartmenthead,thesamePickering,onlywantedtoclassifystarsbybrightness.IfHarvardcouldnotcompete

WomenattheForefrontofAstronomybySteveCarr

PortraitofHypatiaofAlexan-dria(370-415),whodesignedtheastrolabefornavigation.

MariaMitchell(1818-1889)wasthefirstinAmericatodiscoveracomet.

“Weneedimaginationinscience.Itisnotallmathematics,norlogic,butissomewhatbeautyandpoetry.”

—MariaMitchell,astronomer

BOOKS


withthenewer,morepowerfultelescopesatobservatoriessituatedatmoreidealview-ing locations,Pickeringwasdeterminedtoatleastimpresstheworldwiththesheervolumeofrawdata,andheincreasinglyputlessemphasisonanalyzingthatdata.

Years later, Maury did return to Har-

vardbutwastreatedasanoutsiderinherownofficeandagainbarredfrommoreadvancedstudiesorresearch.

MorePioneersTonamejustafewofthewomenas-

tronomypioneersdiscussedinthebook:•NancyRoman(born1925)helpedto

designandbuildalmosteveryNASAor-bitingobservatoryduringthe1970sand1980s.

•VeraRubin(born1928)shockedtheworldofastronomywhenshediscoveredclumpsofgalaxiesthatwerenotrandom-ly distributed, as suggested by the BigBangTheory.

• Margaret Geller (born 1947), whowastoldbyherelementaryschoolteach-erthatgirlsshouldnotstudyscienceormath, went on to discover structure inthe universe which again disproved alltheprevalenttheories.

These efforts continue with CarolynSpellmanShoemaker (born1929)who still spends 12 to 13 hourseach day at the U.S. GeologicalSurvey labs in Flagstaff, Ariz., inplanetaryastronomy,searchingforasteroidsthatmightthreatenEarth.She developed a stereo machinethat more easily allows astrono-merstofindanymovingobjectsinnearspace.

Thebookendswithafewpagesofphotosandshortpersonalpro-filesofmanyyoungandpromisingwomenstartingcareersinthecut-ting-edgeresearchprojectsaround

the world. The last, and perhaps mostprovocativepageof theseyouthfulpro-fileshasablankphotoandanemptypro-filethatneedstobefilled,merelyasking,“You?”

Courtesy of Grasslands Observatory

SomeofthewomenastronomerswhoworkedevaluatingphotographicplatesattheHarvard College Observatory, under the direction of astronomer Edward CharlesPickering.Thephotodatesfromaround1900.

“Scienceisaboutmakingconnectionswheretherewerenonebefore.Forthatreasonabroadeducationisascrucialasdevelopmentoftechnicalskill.Readinggreatliterature,seeingartinallitsforms,andinternalizingthemarechallengesofunderstandingnature.”

—MargaretGellerastronomer

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