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Italian Morning Sight

07 September 2015

Equity Research +39 02 4344 - 4389 Institutional Sales - 5101 Relative Value - 4788 Equity Derivatives - 5451

All ESN research is available

on Bloomberg: “ESNR” <go>

Investment Research

Technical Analysis

DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector

Stock Exchanges

4 Sep 15 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD

FTSE Italy All-Share 23,072 -2.97 14.57 19,270 25,684

FTSE MIB 21,473 -3.18 12.94 18,123 24,031

FTSE Italy Star 23,771 -1.06 27.39 18,482 26,520

Comit 1,200.4 -1.56 15.62 1,002.9 1,323.7

Stoxx 600 353.11 -2.52 3.09 331.62 414.06

EuroStoxx 50 3,180.2 -2.75 1.08 3,007.9 3,828.8

Dow Jones Industrials 16,102 -1.66 -9.65 15,666 18,312

Nasdaq Comp 4,684 -1.05 -1.10 4,506 5,219

Nikkei 225 17,792 -2.15 1.96 16,796 20,868

Other Market Indicators

4 Sep 15 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD

EUR/USD 1.1116 0.17 -8.14 1.0522 1.2031

USD/YEN 119.19 -0.91 -0.59 116.87 125.65

London Brent Crude Oil Index U$/BBL 50.37 2.54 -12.14 42.81 67.95

10 Yrs Bund Futures 154.89 0.58 -0.63 148.98 160.36

Source: Datastream

Recommendation and target price changes

Banca Carige: TP EUR 2.20 from EUR 2.30

Trevi: TP EUR 1.50 from 1.90

News

Banca Carige (Buy) A restructuring story with M&A appeal Enel (Accumulate) Going-on Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (Buy) FCA likely to wait until 2016 before moving on GM Telecom Italia (Accumulate) New rumours on savings' conversion Trevi (Neutral) Feedback from H1 presentation: challenging guidance UniCredit (Neutral) Interview with Mr Ghizzoni in La Repubblica

Italian Morning Sight 07 September 2015

Banca

Akros 2

Banca Carige

Italy/Banks

BANKS

Banca Carige (Buy) A restructuring story with M&A appeal

A restructuring story with M&A appeal

The facts: We are publishing this morning a company update on Banca Carige.

Our analysis: - Better operating profits: The main income driver will remain NII:

the main income source is targeted to grow by EUR 255m in 5Y, with a 11.8%

CAGR, mainly thanks to a very strong reduction in funding costs. The net

commissions are expected to increase by EUR 148m in 5Y, with a 9.3% CAGR,

thanks to a higher weight of AUM on indirect funding (from 48.7% to 56.6%) and

the relaunch of lending growth. We consider these revenue targets as quite

ambitious, as we think increasing the weight of AUM requires significant

investments in staff training for customer advice.

- Improved risk profile: To cut the cost of credit risk to 90bps in 2017 and

41bps in 2019, the bank plans to reduce the share of bad loans stock via

disposal of EUR 1-1.5bn with non-recourse, with a gross capital loss

estimated in EUR 150-200m (or 30bps of CET1) to be finalized in 2016. The

bank will also maximize recovery rates through a partnership agreement with

a servicer for positions not exceeding EUR 5m, for a portfolio of EUR 2-2.7bn

and estimated commissions of 4-6bps in terms of cost of risk.

- H1 15 results: The most outstanding achievement of the de-risking process

realized by the mgmt. over the last year was a fall in loan impairments in Q2,

decreasing 30% Q/Q and 46% Y/Y to EUR 54m. In H1 15 the bank signed

workout agreements for EUR 813m worth of unlikely-to-pay loans, planned to

reach over EUR 1.6bn by end-Sep. Once restructured, these loans will be

classified in the forborne category and may return to performing loans after

1Y. These would allow to halve the unlikely-to-pay loans, currently at EUR

3.3bn gross.

- M&A appeal: Apart from the restructuring story on a standalone basis, we

think Banca Carige is likely to be involved in the expected consolidation of the

Italian banking sector, possibly in two different ways. We think Banca Carige

could be easily integrated in a larger group as its branch network remains

highly concentrated in the historical region of Liguria. In a top-down approach,

we estimate on avg. 17% of Banca Carige’s cost base can be cut in 3Y by a

potential partner, with a value creation of EUR 0.35 per Carige share.

- Alternatively, the subsidiaries Carige Italia and BML make up approx. 53%

of group revenues and 33% of customer loans. While their relative size for the

group is high, in our view their local market shares are too limited to give

them a competitive advantage and it could make sense for the parent

company to sell them. Their disposal at a price in line with the carrying values

(over EUR 0.8bn) would add up to 550bps to the group’s capital ratios,

freeing up approx. EUR 1.1bn capital (or EUR 1.3 per share) and offering the

mgmt. the means to distribute an extraordinary dividend and invest into the

transformation of the remaining Banca Carige from a traditional retail bank

into a wealth manager.

Conclusion & Action: The business plan targets a ROTE of 8% in 2019: Banca

Carige will not match its estimated COE in the next 5Y and will destroy value in

the meantime. Therefore, our standalone target price is EUR 2.2 per share, or

0.7x P/TBV. However, we think an aggregation by a larger group could add EUR

0.35 per share of additional cost synergies, while the disposal of the branch

network outside Liguria could free up capital for as much as EUR 1.3 per share.

Analyst(s):

Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Buy

1.63

closing price as of 04/09/2015

2.20

2.30from Target Price: EUR

Recommendation unchanged

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CRGI.MI/CRG IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,356

Current N° of shares (m) 830

Free float 74%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 6,388,856

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 10,587

Price high 12 mth (EUR) 3.65

Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.50

Abs. perf. 1 mth -3.03%



Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e

Total Revenue (m) 822 709 749

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 106 61 125

Operating profit (OP) -539 -201 -99

Earnings Before Tax (m) -579 -176 -269

Net Profit (adj.) (m) -254 -106 -63

Shareholders Equity (m) 1,766 2,596 2,421

Tangible BV (m) 1,709 2,539 2,364

RWA (m) 20,500 18,980 19,504

ROTE -15.9% -5.0% -2.6%

Total Capital Ratio (B3) 12.4% 17.7% 16.4%

Cost/Income 86.4% 90.7% 82.6%

NPL ratio (gross) 11.7% 11.8% 11.1%

P/PPP 155.4 22.3 10.8

P/E (adj.) nm nm nm

P/BV 9.4 0.5 0.6

P/TBV 9.7 0.5 0.6

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

PPPPS 0.01 0.07 0.15

EPS (adj.) -0.02 -0.13 -0.08

BVPS 0.17 3.13 2.92

TBVPS 0.17 3.06 2.85

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15

vvdsvdvsdy

BANCA CARIGE FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Malacalza 17%; local Foundations 6%;

Volpi 6%; BPCE 1.90%;


Banca

Akros 3

Enel

Italy/Utilities

UTILITIES

Enel (Accumulate) A restructuring story with M&A appeal

Going-on

The facts: “Milano Finanza” published an interview with Mr. Starace, Enel’s CEO.

Our analysis: in our view, the main issues of the interview are:

2016 dividend, already announced in terms of floor (EUR 0.18 per share –

yield around 4.6%) may be conservative and thus investors ought to look

for a positive surprise;

Mr. Starace confirmed Enel’s growth path in the renewable and in the

network sectors. Most of the planned growth in the coming years, in fact,

will come from these two units;

the exclusive talks with EPH for Slovenske Electrarne disposal are

proceeding and the sale ought to materialise in two steps. The first stake

due to be sold is expected in the coming months (by the end of 2015),

the second step once the nuclear unit constructions ends;

Enel is facing the technical issues of the “national broadband project” with

Telecom Italia. Enel confirmed its interest in the project by opening its

network infrastructures and bundling fibre with new devices in the

planned substitution of 33m new generation-domestic-digital meters.

News on this matter is expected soon.

Conclusion & Action: Mr. Starace is continuing to deliver on the announced

targets and the change to increase 2016 dividends is confirming the quality of the

results posted. We continue to appreciate Enel’s strategic moves both in Italy and

abroad and we reiterate our positive stance on the stock: accumulate.

Analyst(s):

Dario Michi, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4237

Accumulate

3.91


4.75

Target Price unchanged


Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ENEI.MI/ENEL IM


Current N° of shares (m) 9,403

Free float 72%









Sales (m) 75,791 74,528 73,865

EBITDA (m) 15,757 14,943 15,018

EBITDA margin 20.8% 20.1% 20.3%

EBIT (m) 3,087 9,000 9,093

EBIT margin 4.1% 12.1% 12.3%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 517 2,997 3,019

ROCE 2.9% 5.8% 5.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 37,383 39,593 38,588

Net Debt/Equity 0.7 0.7 0.7

Debt/EBITDA 2.4 2.6 2.6

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.0 5.4 5.8

EV/Sales 0.9 1.0 1.0

EV/EBITDA 4.5 4.9 4.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.5 4.9 4.7

EV/EBIT 23.1 8.1 7.8

P/E (adj.) nm 12.3 12.2

P/BV 1.1 1.1 1.0

OpFCF yield 9.6% -0.2% 6.5%

Dividend yield 3.6% 4.1% 4.6%

EPS (adj.) 0.05 0.32 0.32

BVPS 3.35 3.53 3.85

DPS 0.14 0.16 0.18

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6


vvdsvdvsdy

ENEL Stoxx Utilities (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Italian governement - Ministry of

Economy and Finance 26%; People's

Bank of China 2%;


Banca

Akros 4

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles

Italy/Automobiles & Parts

AUTOMOBILES & PARTS

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (Buy) Going-on

FCA likely to wait until 2016 before moving on GM

The facts: According to Bloomberg, FCA is likely to wait until next year before

making a bid for GM as the spin-off of Ferrari - due in early 2016 - could be the

catalyst for FCA to make an offer for the U.S. automaker.

According to the article, the Ferrari separation is a cornerstone in the process to

combines FCA with GM because a) it would grant money to afford an offer and b)

because the Agnelli family is keen to keep control of the Italian supercar maker.

Our analysis: We have always thought that FCA intended to merge its operations

with GM after the spin-off of Ferrari as the management started to tackle the

subject of industry consolidation only after having engineered the separation of the

sports car maker.

The IPO of Ferrari – due after 12 October 2015 – is going to grant FCA a EUR

1bn cash-in in the best case; we argue that FCA may afford a very limited stake in

GM: the US carmaker's market cap is ~EUR 42bn, while FCA's current market cap

is EUR 18.5bn; Ferrari potentially weighs for EUR 9bn on that market cap.

If we assume that the Ferrari equity value is EUR 10bn and that FCA is going to

cash in EUR 1bn from the IPO and give the remaining shares to its own

shareholders for free, the current FCA-ex-Ferrari market cap is ~EUR 10.5bn or

~25% of the GM market cap: it is clear that any attempt of FCA to merge with GM

should lever on the support of activist funds.

Conclusion & Action: We do not expect the news to have any impact on FCA

share price today.

Analyst(s):

Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 43 444 289

Buy

12.20


18.65



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FCHA.MI/FCA IM



Free float 59%







Abs. perf. 12 mth 58.75%


Sales (m) 96,090 113,306 121,772

EBITDA (m) 8,120 6,342 7,236

EBITDA margin 8.5% 5.6% 5.9%

EBIT (m) 3,223 4,817 5,579

EBIT margin 3.4% 4.3% 4.6%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 846 1,576 2,194

ROCE 5.6% 7.0% 7.7%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 7,654 7,905 7,947




EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3

EV/EBITDA 3.3 4.8 4.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.1 4.8 4.3

EV/EBIT 8.2 6.4 5.5

P/E (adj.) 17.1 11.7 8.4

P/BV 1.1 1.2 1.1

OpFCF yield -3.8% -1.5% -0.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.56 1.05 1.46

BVPS 8.91 9.95 11.41

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


vvdsvdvsdy

FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: EXOR 29%; Baillie Gifford & Co 10%;

Bank of China 1.87%;


Banca

Akros 5

Telecom Italia

Italy/Telecommunications

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Telecom Italia (Accumulate) FCA likely to wait until 2016 before moving on GM

New rumours on savings' conversion

The facts: new rumours of a potential offer on behalf of TI to exchange the

conversion shares appeared last Friday. The company dismissed the rumour in a

press release. Unrelated, new statements from TI and Vivendi management

supporting a long-term industrial partnership.

Our analysis: TI management admitted again in the Q2 results conference call

that the current capital structure was not optimal given the presence of 6bn

savings shares, and conceded in H2 the issue would be addressed by the board.

New rumours emerged on Friday that a proposal of conversion would be have

been discussed by TI's control and risk committees in early August; the article

suggested a 1:1 exchange ratio along with a cash payment worth half of the

current difference in value of just below EUR 20c. In this case, TI would cash-in

around EUR 0.5bn, as a side effect, Vivendi's stake would be diluted from 14.9%

to c 10.3%. TI confirmed that the deal has "been analysed internally", but added

that "at the present time, no formal executive plan exists".

On the TI/Vivendi relationships, the top managers of both companies commented

on their relationships amid the Cernobbio business meeting; Vivendi reiterated its

long term view on the investment and praised TI's strategy and the synergy

potential in content distribution. At the same time, Vivendi denied interest for

Mediaset and the intention to increase the stake in Telefonica from the current

1%. A potential further increase in TI's stake was not ruled out, though.

Conclusion & Action: the conversion of TI savings shares is expected to take

place sooner rather than later. TI's statement just says it has not been approved

for the time being. We believe it is still time to play the spread. On TI/VIV, we do

not see further short-term newsflow.

Analyst(s):

Andrea Devita, CFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Accumulate

1.09


1.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TLIT.MI/TIT IM



Free float 75%







Abs. perf. 12 mth 24.26%


Sales (m) 21,573 20,340 20,143

EBITDA (m) 8,786 8,108 8,363

EBITDA margin 40.7% 39.9% 41.5%

EBIT (m) 4,530 3,858 4,133

EBIT margin 21.0% 19.0% 20.5%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 1,350 844 1,474

ROCE 6.2% 5.8% 5.7%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 28,021 27,012 26,437




EV/Sales 2.2 2.5 2.5

EV/EBITDA 5.4 6.2 5.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.4 5.9 5.9

EV/EBIT 10.4 13.0 12.0

P/E (adj.) 12.7 25.1 14.4

P/BV 0.9 1.1 1.1

OpFCF yield 8.7% 1.6% 2.6%


EPS (adj.) 0.07 0.04 0.08

BVPS 0.93 0.97 1.02

DPS 0.00 0.02 0.02

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30


vvdsvdvsdy

TELECOM ITALIA Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Vivendi 15%; Blackrock 6%; brandes 2%;

Findim 2.00%;


Banca

Akros 6

Trevi

Italy/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE

Trevi (Neutral) New rumours on savings' conversion

Feedback from H1 presentation: challenging guidance

FY 15 guidance confirmed: during the H1 presentation the management

confirmed the FY 15 guidance given in July:

- FY 15 EBIT at EUR -30 / -40m;

- FY NFP at EUR 450m (+/- 15m).

In light of the negative H1 results (H1 EBIT -104.5m), FY 15 EBIT guidance of

EUR -30/-40m is very challenging; however, the management is confident to meet

the guidance thanks to both the good visibility of the order book (5-6 months for

Trevi, > 2 months for Soilmec and 6 months for Drillmec) and several contracts

that should be signed shortly.

Our analysis: we consider these targets very challenging, so we set FY 15

estimates more prudent compared to the management indications: FY 15e EBIT

moved from EUR -37m to EUR -47m.

Conclusion & Action: we confirm our Neutral recommendation and, based on

the revised estimates, our Target Price decreases from EUR 1.90 to EUR 1.50 per

share (DCF model – WACC from 7.6% to 7.9% and 1.5% perpetual growth rate)

while we wait to verify the orders delivery, the obtaining of new contracts and the

NFP trend in the coming months.

Analyst(s):

Paola Saglietti, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Neutral

1.19


1.50

1.90from Target Price: EUR


Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TFI.MI/TFI IM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 196

Current N° of shares (m) 165

Free float 50%









Sales (m) 1,251 1,280 1,325

EBITDA (m) 126 40 140

EBITDA margin 10.1% 3.1% 10.5%

EBIT (m) 63 (47) 61

EBIT margin 5.0% nm 4.6%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 24 (63) 13

ROCE 4.2% -3.4% 4.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 378 472 440




EV/Sales 0.8 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 7.8 20.5 5.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.8 20.5 5.7

EV/EBIT 15.7 nm 13.3

P/E (adj.) 13.7 nm 15.6

P/BV 0.7 0.4 0.4

OpFCF yield -17.3% 12.2% -2.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.21 (0.38) 0.08

BVPS 3.94 2.92 3.27

DPS 0.13 0.13 0.13

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


vvdsvdvsdy

TREVI FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Trevi family 33%; FSI 17%;


Banca

Akros 7

UniCredit

Italy/Banks

BANKS

UniCredit (Neutral) Feedback from H1 presentation: challenging guidance

Interview with Mr Ghizzoni in La Repubblica

The facts: Italian daily La Repubblica publishes this morning an interview with Mr

Ghizzoni, UniCredit’s CEO.

Our analysis: In the interview, Mr Ghizzoni flags the main guidelines for the

upcoming revision of the business plan.

He considers 3-5Y business plans must be regularly updated due to the rapid

change of the environment, like the booming asset mgmt. industry or the

European Banking Union, both unexpected 3Y ago.

The update of the business plan will be concentrated on the relaunch of organic

growth in specific activities, like the asset mgmt., private banking, investment

banking and specific segments of CIB, like export and FDI financing or investment

banking solutions for mid-corporate clients.

Mr Ghizzoni highlights the group started successfully a new approach in France,

where initially the bank was serving the Italian firms investing there, but is now

doing business with French multinationals investing in CEE, where UniCredit can

leverage on its regional leadership. The same approach will now be launched in

Spain, UK and USA.

In terms of capital, he thinks the uncertainty has been generated by the lack of a

clear and stable regulatory target, due to the introduction of the yearly SREP

revision. However, Mr Ghizzoni stresses the bank is already ahead of the

business plan target (10% CET1 ratio by end-2016) and generates capital on an

organic basis (15-20bps per quarter). Going on, the bank will try to optimize the

capital allocation on the businesses offering the best returns, while scaling back

those without proper value creation.

Conclusion & Action: The upcoming revision of the business plan will not be

based just on cost cuts and staff reduction, but also on the relaunch of organic

growth and better capital allocation. We stick to Neutral with EUR 6.6 target price.

Analyst(s):

Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Neutral

5.60


6.60



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CRDI.MI/UCG IM



Free float 66%









Total Revenue (m) 22,513 23,024 24,162

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 8,316 8,696 9,678

Operating profit (OP) 4,024 4,772 6,126

Earnings Before Tax (m) 4,091 4,772 5,476

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 1,963 2,420 3,562

Shareholders Equity (m) 49,390 50,915 52,540

Tangible BV (m) 45,828 47,353 48,979

RWA (m) 409,223 409,992 399,747

ROTE 4.4% 5.2% 7.4%

Total Capital Ratio (B3) 13.6% 14.1% 14.1%

Cost/Income 61.5% 58.7% 56.6%

NPL ratio (gross) 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%

P/PPP 3.7 3.8 3.5

P/E (adj.) 15.7 13.8 9.4

P/BV 0.7 0.7 0.7

P/TBV 0.7 0.7 0.7

Dividend Yield 2.1% 2.7% 3.6%

PPPPS 1.44 1.46 1.62

EPS (adj.) 0.34 0.41 0.60

BVPS 7.91 7.93 8.20

TBVPS 7.91 7.93 8.20

DPS 0.12 0.15 0.20

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5


vvdsvdvsdy

UNICREDIT Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Aabar 5%; Fondaz. Cariverona 4%; Del

Vecchio 3%; Central Bank of Libya 3%;

Fondaz. CRT 3%; Carimonte Holding 2%;


Banca

Akros 8

Technical Analysis (daily ratings) 07/09/2015

FINMECCANICA SIFI.MI ASTALDI AST.MI

Close 11.78 Close 9.08

Rating REDUCE Rating REDUCE

Supp. 11.65-11.20-10.80-10.40 Supp. 8.90-8.55-8.10-7.85-7.40

Resist. 12.25-12.70-13.65 Resist. 9.85-10.20-10.85

Stop loss Stop loss

Profit taking Profit taking

VOSSLOH VOSG.DE WENDEL MWDP.PA

Close 62.50 Close 112

Rating REDUCE Rating REDUCE

Supp. 60.95-59.60-58.20-57.00 Supp. 110.80-106.54-103.38

Resist. 65.10-66.00-68.00-70.00 Resist. 115.80-118.40-121.85

Stop loss Stop loss

Profit taking Profit taking

Technical Analysis FTSE MIB (expiration September 2015)

Supports: 21.800-21.650-21.350-21.200-21.000

Resistances: 22.300-22.500-22.650-22.800-23.000

RSI: N-POSITIVE STOCHASTICS: N-POSITIVE MACD: NEGATIVE

Short Term Trend: N-POSITIVE


Banca

Akros 9

DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector

0.60

0.54

0.27

-0.35

-0.01

-0.60

0.12

0.00

0.75

0.82

-0.04

0.35

-1.51

0.96

-0.06

-0.12

-2.53

-0.37

-4% -2% 0% 2%

Media

Telecom

Technology

Financial Services

Insurance

Banks

Utilities

Personal Goods

Food & Beverage

Healthcare

Industrial G&S

Construction & Materials

Oil & Gas

Travel & Leisure

Auto & Parts

Retail

Basic Resources

Chemical

(DJ Stoxx 04/09: 353.11 - chg -2.52%)

Source: Datastream Cyclical Non-Cyclical Financial TMT


Banca

Akros 10

Disclaimer

This research has been prepared by Andrea Devita, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino, Enrico Esposti (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who are financial analysts with Banca Akros SpA ("Banca Akros"), which is responsible for the preparation of the research.

Banca Akros is a bank authorised to perform also investment services; it is part of the Bipiemme Banca Popolare di Milano Group (the “Group”) and it is duly subject to the management and co-ordination of Banca Popolare di Milano (the “Parent Company”). Banca Akros is registered with the Italian Banking Association code n. 5328 and is subject to the regulation and surveillance of Bank of Italy and Consob (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa)." Banca Akros has prepared this research for its professional clients only, pursuant to Directive 2004/39/CE and Annex 3 of Consob Regulation on intermediaries (Resolution n. 16190). This research is being distributed as of 07 September 2015.

In compliance with arts. 69 “quater” and “quinquies” of Consob Regulations for Issuers (“notification to the public regarding interest and conflict of interest”) Banca Akros hereby declared that it has a personal interest in some of the companies examined in this research, specifically:

1) Anima Holding, Fiera Milano, Gabetti Property Solution, Prelios, Premuda, Risanamento, Zucchi: Banca Akros’ parent group holds more than 2% or is a member of shareholders pacts.

2) Cape Live, Prima Industrie: the Bank is acting as corporate advisor in communication to institutional investors.

3) Alerion Clean Power, Best Union, Class Editori, IMMSI, Italcementi, Piaggio, Servizi Italia, Sorin: dual administrator role in related parties.

4) Acotel, Amplifon, Autostrada To-Mi (TAH), Axelero (AIM), Enervit, Exprivia, Falck Renewables, Gas Plus, Notorious Pictures, QF Investietico, QF Mediolanum RE A, QF Mediolanum RE B, Sias (MTA-TAH): for which the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider.

5) Aeroporto di Bologna, Banca Sistema, Cerved, Fincantieri, Fineco Bank, Inwit, Rai Way, OVS: Banca Akros was the placement bank and guarantor for the pertinent IPO organized in the last twelve months.

6) Aedes, Banca Carige, Banca MPS, Banca Pop. Sondrio, Cattolica Assicurazione, Creval: the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager in pertinent consortium for the capital increase organized in the last twelve months.

7) Autostrade per l'Italia, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager in pertinent consortium for the bond issue / buyback organized in May/June 2015.

8) Georgia Worldwide (GTech), Mediobanca: the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager of the consortium for the placement of the non-negotiable bonds organized in the last twelve months.

9) I Grandi Viaggi the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider; the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager in pertinent consortium for the capital increase organized in June/July 2015.

10) Banzai: the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider; Banca Akros was the placement bank and guarantor for the pertinent IPO organized in the last twelve months.

11) Vita Società Editoriale: the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider; the Bank was acting as Co-Lead Manager in pertinent consortium for the capital increase organized in the last twelve months.

12) Prysmian: the Bank was acting as Lead Manager of the consortium for the placement of the negotiable bonds organized in April 2015.

Financial analysts Andrea Devita, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino, Enrico Esposti (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who prepared this research, have gained considerable experience with Banca Akros and other authorised brokerage houses. Said financial analysts do not receive a bonus, salary or any other form of remuneration, whether directly or indirectly, from any earnings in any investment banking operation. Gabriele Gambarova holds financial instruments issued by FCA. Other analysts and their families do not hold financial instruments issued by the companies under examination, nor are they directors, managers or advisors of the companies.

Pursuant to Consob rulings to implement art. 114, paragraph 8 of Italian Legislative Decree 58/98 (TUF) and specifically art. 69 “quinquies”, paragraph 2 of the Issuers Regulation, Banca Akros hereby informs its clients that additional information is available at its web site:

http://www.bancaakros.it/en/information-menu/financial-analysis-market-abuse.aspx

The information and opinions given in this research are based on sources believed to be reliable. Banca Akros has done its best to check the source of said information and that it has already been made public. However, notwithstanding the said controls Banca Akros does not guarantee nor shall it be held liable if the information supplied herein or used to prepare this research is found to be inaccurate, incomplete, untrue or incorrect.

This research is for information purposes only. It shall not be regarded as a proposal for a contract, an offer to sell nor as a solicitation to buy and/or sell financial products nor, in general, to invest. Nor shall it be regarded as advice on investment opportunities. Banca Akros does not guarantee that any of the forecasts and/or estimates supplied in this research are attainable. Moreover, Banca Akros shall not be held liable for any consequences and/or damage that may derive from the use of this research and/or the information contained herein. All the information or opinions contained in this research are subject to change without notice, without detriment to any legal or regulatory requirements.

Unless specifically authorised, this research may not be reproduced and/or circulated, whether wholly or in part, directly or indirectly.

http://www.bancaakros.it/en/information-menu/financial-analysis-market-abuse.aspx

Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)

Banca Akros S.p.A. Viale Eginardo, 29 20149 MILANO Italy Phone: +39 02 43 444 389 Fax: +39 02 43 444 302

Equinet Bank AG

Gräfstraße 97 60487 Frankfurt am Main Germany Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 410 Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299

SNS Securities N.V.

Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162 P.O.Box 235 1000 AE Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: +31 20 550 8500 Fax: +31 20 626 8064

Pohjola Bank plc P.O.Box 308 FI- 00013 Pohjola Finland Phone: +358 10 252 011 Fax: +358 10 252 2703

Caixa-Banco de Investimento Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº 33 1269-057 Lisboa Portugal Phone: +351 21 313 73 00 Fax: +351 21 389 68 98

CM - CIC Securities 6, avenue de Provence 75441 Paris Cedex 09 France Phone: +33 1 4596 7940 Fax: +33 1 4596 7748

Bank Degroof Rue de I’Industrie 44 1040 Brussels Belgium Phone: +32 2 287 91 16 Fax: +32 2 231 09 04

Investment Bank of Greece 32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou, 151 25 Maroussi, Greece Tel: +30 210 81 73 383

BEKA Finance Serrano, 39 28001 Madrid Spain Phone: +34 91 436 7813 Fax: +34 91 577 3770

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