21 september 2005 gheorghe tecuci learning agents center and computer science department school of...
TRANSCRIPT
21 September 2005
Gheorghe TecuciLearning Agents Center
and Computer Science DepartmentSchool of Information Technology and Engineering
George Mason University
Personal Cognitive Assistant for Intelligence Analysis
Virtual Experts for Multi-domain Collaborative Planning
Learning Agents Center: Research Vision
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent for Course of Action Critiquing
Overview
Agents for Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities
Final Remarks
• Conducts fundamental and experimental research on the development of knowledge-based learning and problem solving agents.
• Supports teaching in the areas of intelligent agents, machine learning, knowledge acquisition, artificial intelligence and its applications.
• Develops the Disciple theory, methodology and agent shells for building agents that can be taught how to solve problems by subject matter experts.
http://lac.gmu.edu
Mission
Basic Research
Tools
Applications
Transitions
Turing, A.M. (1950). Computing machinery and intelligence. Mind, 59, 433-460.
Building an intelligent machine by programming is too difficult.
“Instead of trying to produce a programme to simulate the adult mind, why not rather try to produce one which simulates the child's? If this were then subjected to an appropriate course of education one would obtain the adult brain.”
Teaching as Alternative to Programming
How are Expert Systems Built and Why it is Hard
Edward Feigenbaum, 1993: Rarely does a technology arise that offers such a wide range of important benefits.
KnowledgeEngineer
Subject MatterExpert
Knowledge Base
Inference Engine
Expert System
ProgrammingDialog
Results
Research Problem and Approach
The expert teachesthe agent to perform various tasks in a way that resembles
how the expert would teach a person.
The agent learnsfrom the expert,
building, verifyingand improving itsknowledge base
Inte
rfac
eProblemSolving
Learning
Ontology+ Rules
Disciple
Disciple’s Vision on the Future of Software Development
MainframeComputers
PersonalComputers
LearningAgents
The expert teachesthe agent to perform various tasks in a way that resembles
how the expert would teach a person.
The agent learnsfrom the expert,
building, verifyingand improving itsknowledge base
Inte
rfac
e
ProblemSolving
Learning
Ontology+ Rules
Disciple
Vision on the Use of Disciple in Education
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
…
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
2005, Learning Agents Center
Personal Cognitive Assistant for Intelligence Analysis
Virtual Experts for Multi-domain Collaborative Planning
Learning Agents Center: Research Vision
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent for Course of Action Critiquing
Overview
Agents for Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities
Final Remarks
2005, Learning Agents Center
The Overall Architecture of a Disciple Agent
Problem SolvingEngines
Disciple
SubjectMatterExpert
Dialog Knowledge Acquisitionand Learning Engines
Ontology
Rules
Knowledge Base
RULE x,y,z OBJECT, (ON x y) & (ON y z) (ON x z)
ONCUP1 BOOK1 ON TABLE1
CUP BOOK TABLE
INSTANCE-OF
OBJECT
SUBCLASS-OF
ONCUP1 BOOK1 ON TABLE1
CUP BOOK TABLE
INSTANCE-OF
OBJECT
SUBCLASS-OF
ONTOLOGY
Knowledge Base = Ontology + Rules
ONTOLOGY FRAGMENT
Main condition?O1 is PhD_advisor
has_as_employer ?O4 has_as_position ?O5
?O2 is PhD_student?O3 is research_area?O4 is university?O5 is tenured_position
Except when condition?O1 is person
is_likely_to_move_to ?O6?O6 is employer
IF: Determine whether ?O1 can be a PhD advisor for ?O2 in ?O3.
THEN: Determine whether ?O1 would be a good PhD advisor for ?O2 in ?O3.
REASONING RULE
Determine whether John Smith can be a PhD advisor for Tom Even in Artificial Intelligence.
PROBLEM SOLVING
TASK
Ph.D. student
facultymemberstaff
member
professor
studentuniversityemployee
person
subconcept-of
subconcept-of
subconcept-of subconcept-of
subconcept-of
M.S. student
B.S. studentinstructor
graduatestudent
undergraduatestudent
fullprofessor
associateprofessor
assistantprofessor
subconcept-of
subconcept-of
PhD_advisor
Model the reasoning
of SME
Createobject
ontology
Definereasoning
rules
Verify and update rules
KE
SME
Traditionally
KE
Agent
SME Agent
SME
Specifyinstances
and features
Learnontologicalelements
Import anddevelop initial
ontology
Agent
Learnreasoning
rules
SME Agent
Define andexplain
examples
SME
AgentSME Agent
Critiqueexamples
Refinerules
Explaincritiques
SME Agent
Develop reasoning
trees
SMEKE
Instruct SME to explain reasoning
With Disciple
Main Idea of the Disciple Approach
Determine whether John Smith can be a PhD advisor for Tom Even in Artificial Intelligence.
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent Architecture for Generality-Power Tradeoff
Learning with an Evolving Representation Language
Problem Solving Paradigm for Expert-Agent Collaboration
Knowledge Base Structuring for Knowledge Reuse
Plausible Reasoning with Partially Learned Knowledge
Integrated Teaching and Learning
Multistrategy Learning
S1
S11a
S1n
S11b1 S11bm
T11bmT11b1
T1nT11a
…
…
T1
Q1
S11bT11b
A1n S11A11
……
A11b1 A11bm
S11bQ11b
Task reduction and solution composition
guided by questions and answers
Problem Solving Paradigm for Expert-Agent Collaboration
Learning with an Evolving Representation Language
Ph.D. student
facultymember
staffmember
professor
studentuniversity employee
person
subconcept-of
subconcept-of
subconcept-ofsubconcept-of
subconcept-of
M.S. student
B.S. student
instructor
graduatestudent
undergraduatestudent
fullprofessor
associateprofessor
assistantprofessor
subconcept-of
subconcept-of
PhD_advisor
John SmithMark WhiteTom Evaninstance_of
instance_ofinstance_of
instance_ofJoan Dean
instance_of
has_as_employerGeorge Mason
University
university
.
Universe ofInstances
ExactCondition
Plausible version spaceIF<task>
THEN<subtask 1>…<subtask m>
Plausible Lower Bound Condition<PLB condition>
Plausible Upper Bound Condition<PUB condition>
Plausible Reasoning with Partially Learned Knowledge
IF<task>
THEN<subtask 1>…<subtask m>
Plausible Lower Bound Condition<PLB condition>
Plausible Upper Bound Condition<PUB condition>
Mixed-Initiative Problem Solving
Final RepresentationSpace
Current Representation Space
TargetSolution
Space
Correct routine solutions
Incorrectroutine
solutions
Incorrectinnovative solutions
Correct innovativesolutions
Correct inventivesolutions
Incorrectinventivesolutions
Correct creativesolutions
Final RepresentationSpace
Current Representation Space
ExpertSolutionSpace
Creative solutions
Inventive solutions
Innovative solutions
Routine solutions
Problem
Solution
Integrated Teaching and Learning
Input knowledge
Problem solving behavior
Explicit learning guidance
Explicit teaching guidance
learning hints
examples,facts,rules
classification of examples,problem solutions
questions
Rule Learning Method
Example of atask reduction
step
Plausible version space rule
analogy
PLB
PUB
Knowledge Base
Incompleteexplanation
Analogy and HintGuided Explanation
Analogy-basedGeneralization
Failureexplanation
PVSRule
Example of task reductionsgenerated by the agent
Incorrectexample
Correctexample
Learning fromExplanations
Learning by AnalogyAnd Experimentation
Learning from Examples
Knowledge BaseIF<task>
THEN<subtask 1>…<subtask m>
Condition<condition 1>
Except when condition<condition 2>…Except when condition<condition n>
Multistrategy Learning
Personal Cognitive Assistant for Intelligence Analysis
Virtual Experts for Multi-domain Collaborative Planning
Learning Agents Center: Research Vision
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent for Course of Action Critiquing
Overview
Agents for Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities
Final Remarks
Challenges for the Intelligence Analyst
Overwhelmed by information
Difficult to share intelligence
A
P
Difficult to consider multiple hypotheses
Difficult to collaborate with other analysts
and experts
Difficult to avoid the analytic mindset
Difficult to analyze in reference to the culture
of the data source
Difficult to train new analysts
Difficult to find time for critical analysis
and AARsDifficult to acquire
and retain expertise
Knowledge
Difficult to rigurously explain the analysis
Intelligence analysis is
very difficult
H1 Hn
An integrated approach to intelligence analysis research, education, and operations.
Investigated Solution
Develop a new type of intelligent agent that
• can rapidly acquire expertise in intelligence analysis,
• can train new intelligence analysts, and
• can assist the analysts to solve complex problems.
Vision: Integration of Research, Education, and Operations
Agent Lifecycle
DISCIPLE-LTA
Building an agent shell
1 Knowledge engineer
2
Agent trainingby expert analyst
DISCIPLE-LTA
Expert analyst and knowledge engineer
Rapid agent development
DISCIPLE-LTA6
Knowledge baseoptimizationand re-use
Knowledge engineer and expert analyst
Agent optimization
3
DISCIPLE-LTA
Intelligent tutoring
Teaching new analysts
Analyst
Agent use andnon-disruptive learning
4
DISCIPLE-LTA
Analyst’s assistant(mixed-initiative analysis)
Analyst
After action review andagent personalization
5DISCIPLE-LTA
Analyst’s assistant(mixed-initiative learning)
Analyst
Global Grid Computing and Communications Infrastructure
JBI Platform – minimal set of standards and services
++ + +
Disciple-LTAIntelligent
agent
Disciple-LTA
Vision: Use of Disciple-LTA Agents in an Operational Environment
Disciple-LTAGLOBAL
KNOWLEDGE BASE
Disciple Client
LibrariesKnowledge Repositories
Massive Databases
SEARCH ENGINES
IntelligentAgents
Research
Mili
tary
Rese
arch
Military
Education
& PracticeDiscipleLTA
Develop a systematic approach to military intelligence analysis
Experimentation with Disciple-LTA in the 589 MAAI elective
Agent development by expert analysts using
learning agent technology
Synergistic Integration of Research and Education
2005, Learning Agents Center
Working closely with the expert analysts
in a multi-disciplinary research
Working closely with the end user
to receive crucial and
timely feedback
Live Experiment
US Army War College Course589 Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Intelligence Analysis
2
Agent trainingby expert analyst
After action review andagent personalization
Agent use andnon-disruptive learning
DISCIPLE-LTA
DISCIPLE-LTA
3
DISCIPLE-LTA
Intelligent tutoring
4
DISCIPLE-LTA
5
6
DISCIPLE-LTA
Knowledge baseoptimizationand re-use
Agent Lifecycle
DISCIPLE-LTA
Building an agent shell
1
Expert analyst and knowledge engineer
Knowledge engineer
Knowledge engineer and expert analyst
Rapid agent development
Teaching new analysts
Analyst’s assistant(mixed-initiative analysis)
Analyst’s assistant(mixed-initiative learning)
Agent optimization
Analyst
Analyst
Analyst
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operationsAssess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operationsAssess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operationsWhat type of factors should be considered to assess the presence
of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology,
other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic populationPolitical environment, physical structures, flow of
suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist
sympathetic population
Assess whether the political environment would support a training
base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A
support the existence of a training base for terrorist
operations
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that
suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether the political environment would support a training
base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A
support the existence of a training base for terrorist
operations
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that
suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Location-A contains a building with a
continuous security guard …
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
Location-A
Person-E, a known explosive expert, has been seen in the vicinity of
Location-A by a credible source, on several occasions
Person-X has reported a plastic explosion on
10 August 2001 at Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
There is a credible report that detonation equipment was brought into the country of Location-A by
truck shipment in July 2001
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Location-A contains a building with a
continuous security guard …
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
Location-A
Person-E, a known explosive expert, has been seen in the vicinity of
Location-A by a credible source, on several occasions
Person-X has reported a plastic explosion on
10 August 2001 at Location-A
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
So
luti
on
Syn
thes
is
These are fairly strong indicators
What kind of indicators are these for the presence of plastic
explosives at Location-A?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
There is a credible report that detonation equipment was brought into the country of Location-A by
truck shipment in July 2001
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Location-A contains a building with a
continuous security guard …
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
Location-A
Person-E, a known explosive expert, has been seen in the vicinity of
Location-A by a credible source, on several occasions
Person-X has reported a plastic explosion on
10 August 2001 at Location-A
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
So
luti
on
Syn
thes
is
These are fairly strong indicators
What kind of indicators are these for the presence of plastic
explosives at Location-A?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
There is a credible report that detonation equipment was brought into the country of Location-A by
truck shipment in July 2001
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of
the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Location-A contains a building with a
continuous security guard …
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
Location-A
Person-E, a known explosive expert, has been seen in the vicinity of
Location-A by a credible source, on several occasions
Person-X has reported a plastic explosion on
10 August 2001 at Location-A
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
So
luti
on
Syn
thes
is
These are fairly strong indicators
What kind of indicators are these for the presence of plastic
explosives at Location-A?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
There is a credible report that detonation equipment was brought into the country of Location-A by
truck shipment in July 2001
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of
the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
Conclude that there are indicators of the presence of weapons (plastic explosives, firearms) at Location-A but …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Location-A contains a building with a
continuous security guard …
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
Location-A
Person-E, a known explosive expert, has been seen in the vicinity of
Location-A by a credible source, on several occasions
Person-X has reported a plastic explosion on
10 August 2001 at Location-A
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
So
luti
on
Syn
thes
is
These are fairly strong indicators
What kind of indicators are these for the presence of plastic
explosives at Location-A?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
There is a credible report that detonation equipment was brought into the country of Location-A by
truck shipment in July 2001
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of
the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
Conclude that there are indicators of the presence of weapons (plastic explosives, firearms) at Location-A but …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
Conclude that there are strong indicators that
Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether the political environment would support a
training base for terrorist operations at Location-A
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases for terrorist operations in the
region of Location-A
Assess whether the physical structures at Location-A support the existence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Political environment, physical structures, flow of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons technology, other suspected bases in the region, and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons technology at Location-A that suggest the presence of a training base
for terrorist operations
Task R
edu
ction
Assess whether there are chemical and/or biological agents at Location-A suggesting
a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are firearms at Location-A suggesting a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess … nuclear weapons …
Assess … detonation equipment …
Assess … assembly equipment …
Assess … transportation equipment …
Assess … dispersal equipment …
What types of weapons and weapons technology suggest the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Assess whether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
What kind of explosives could indicate the presence of a training base for terrorist operations?
Plastic explosives because they have been used in past terrorist attacks
Assess whether there are explosives at Location-A
suggesting a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are explosive experts
in the vicinity of Location-A
What things are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities
at Location-A
Location-A contains a building with a
continuous security guard …
Assess whether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at
Location-A
Person-E, a known explosive expert, has been seen in the vicinity of
Location-A by a credible source, on several occasions
Person-X has reported a plastic explosion on
10 August 2001 at Location-A
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
So
luti
on
Syn
thes
is
These are fairly strong indicators
What kind of indicators are these for the presence of plastic
explosives at Location-A?
Assess whether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipment at
Location-A
Historical evidence of past explosions, presence of explosive experts in the area, presence of detonation equipment, and presence of secure storage facilities
There is a credible report that detonation equipment was brought into the country of Location-A by
truck shipment in July 2001
Conclude that there are fairly strong indicators of
the presence of plastic explosives at Location-A
Conclude that there are indicators of the presence of weapons (plastic explosives, firearms) at Location-A but …
Firearms, explosives, chemical and/or biological agents, nuclear weapons, transportation equipment, detonation equipment, dispersal equipment, and assembly equipment
Conclude that there are strong indicators that
Location-A is a training base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess w hether there are explosive experts in the vicinity of ?O1
Plausible upper bound condition
Assess w hether there is evidence of presence of detonation equipm ent at ?O1
Assess w hether there is evidence of presence of secure storage facilities at ?O1
Assess w hether there are indicators of the presence of plastic explosives at ?O 1
Assess w hether there is evidence of past use of plastic explosives at ?O1
If
Plausible lower bound condition
Then
Learnedtask reduction
rule
Learnedsolution
compositionrule
There is ?O4 of presence of secure storage facilities at ?O1
There is ?O of the presence of plastic explosives at ?O1
There is ?O3 that there are explosive experts in the vicinity of ?O1
There is ?O2 of use of plastic explosives at ?O1
There is ?O5 of presence of detonation equipment at ?O1
Plausible upper bound condition
Conclude
Plausible lower bound condition
If
REVIEWER #2: This is an innovative idea that could revolutionize the way we do business, enable us to be more efficient, more effective, more thorough.
REVIEWER #1: a grand challenge to develop an intelligent agent capable of learning, tutoring and decision support …if implemented it would likely be pretty unique.
Intelligence Experts Opinion: Quotations
REVIEWER #3: a very important R&D area for next generation intelligence analysis. The work is well founded, and the execution of real software to implement the ideas is substantial.
REVIEWER #4: I have seen a briefing on the work presented here last year and was impressed with the initial ease of use of capturing complex concepts. This could be excellent for use in both training analysts as well as capturing knowledge from more senior analysts.
Personal Cognitive Assistant for Intelligence Analysis
Virtual Experts for Multi-domain Collaborative Planning
Learning Agents Center: Research Vision
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent for Course of Action Critiquing
Overview
Agents for Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities
Final Remarks
Integrated KB
KB1
Disciple-RKF Assistant
Disciple-RKF Assistant
Problem solver for a non-expert
Tutorto a student
Assistant of an expert
KBn
Disciple-RKF Assistant
...Expert
Expert
Successful experiments and transition to the US Army War College
DARPA’s Rapid Knowledge Formation Program
Develop the Disciple technology to enable teams of subject matter experts to build integrated knowledge bases and agents incorporating their problem solving expertise.
2005, Learning Agents Center
If a combatant eliminates or influences the enemy’s strategic center of gravity, then the enemy will lose control of its power and resources and will eventually fall to defeat. If the combatant fails to adequately protect his own strategic center of gravity, he invites disaster.
P.K. Giles and T.P. GalvinUS Army War College, 1996.
Center of Gravity Analysis
The center of gravity of an entity is its primary source of moral or physical strength, power or resistance.
Joe Strange, Centers of Gravity & Critical Vulnerabilities,
Marine Corps War College, 1996.
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589jw Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence
Students teach Disciple their COG analysis expertise,
using sample scenarios
(e.g. Iraq 2003, War on terror 2003, Arab-Israeli 1973)
Students test the trained
Disciple agent based on a
new scenario (North Korea
2003)
I think that a subject matter expert can use Disciple to build an agent, with limited assistance from a knowledge engineer
Spring 2001COG identification
Spring 2002COG identification
and testing
Spring 2003COG testing based on
critical capabilities
Global evaluations of Disciple by officers during three experiments
Use of Disciple at the US Army War College
2005, Learning Agents Center
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DiscipleAgent KB
Problem
solving
Disciple was taught based on the expertise of Prof. Comello in center of gravity analysis.
Disciple helps the students to perform a center of gravity analysis of an assigned war scenario.
Teaching
Learning
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The use of Disciple is an assignment that is well suited to the course's learning objectives
Disciple should be used in future versions of this course
Use of Disciple at the US Army War College
319jw Case Studies in Center of Gravity Analysis
Disciple helped me to learn to perform a strategic COG
analysis of a scenario
Global evaluations of Disciple by officers from the Spring 05 course
Extended KB
stay informedbe irreplaceable
communicate be influential
Integrated KB
Initial KB
have supportbe protected
be driving force
432 concepts and features, 29 tasks, 18 rulesFor COG identification for leaders
37 acquired concepts andfeatures for COG testing
COG identification and testing (leaders)
Domain analysis and ontology development (KE+SME)
Parallel KB development (SME assisted by KE)
KB merging (KE)
Knowledge Engineer (KE)
All subject matter experts (SME)
DISCIPLE-COG DISCIPLE-COG DISCIPLE-COG DISCIPLE-COG DISCIPLE-COG
Training scenarios:Iraq 2003
Arab-Israeli 1973War on Terror 2003
Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5
5 features10 tasks10 rules
Learned features, tasks, rules
14 tasks14 rules
2 features19 tasks19 rules
35 tasks33 rules
3 features24 tasks23 rules
Unified 2 features Deleted 4 rules Refined 12 rulesFinal KB:+9 features 478 concepts and features+105 tasks 134 tasks+95 rules 113 rules
DISCIPLE-COG
Testing scenario:North Korea 2003
Correctness = 98.15%
5h 28min average training time / team3.53 average rule learning rate / team
Parallel development and merging of KBs
KBINTEGRATION
ASSISTANT
Integration Team: Knowledge engineer +Subject matter experts
KB Integration, Validation and Maintenance
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Operational Use and Non-Disruptive Learning
After Action Review and KB Refinement
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Operational Use and Non-Disruptive Learning
After Action Review and KB Refinement
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Operational Use and Non-Disruptive Learning
After Action Review and KB Refinement
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Current ProjectDistributed Knowledge
Acquisition, Validation, and Maintenance
Copies of Disciple agents support users’ decision-making and all learn from these experiences.
Knowledge acquired by the agents is validated and integrated into an
improved Disciple Knowledge Base
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Operational Use and Non-Disruptive Learning
After Action Review and KB Refinement
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Operational Use and Non-Disruptive Learning
After Action Review and KB Refinement
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Operational Use and Non-Disruptive Learning
After Action Review and KB Refinement
PROBLEM SOLVINGAND LEARNING
ASSISTANT
Co-PI, SMEDr. Jerome Comello
Experiments in 2005, 2006, 2007
Co-PI, SMEDr. Joseph Strange
Experiments in 2006, 2007
Co-PI, SMECol Jeffrey HightaianLtCol Todd Kemper
Experiments in2006, 2007
Experimentation Environment
2005, 2006, 2007
Air War College
Army War College
Marine Corps War College
KBINTEGRATION
ASSISTANT
Integration Team: Knowledge engineer +Subject matter experts
KB Integration, Validation and Maintenance
George MasonUniversity
Personal Cognitive Assistant for Intelligence Analysis
Virtual Experts for Multi-domain Collaborative Planning
Learning Agents Center: Research Vision
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent for Course of Action Critiquing
Overview
Agents for Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities
Final Remarks
2005, Learning Agents Center
Disciple-VEDisciple-VEDisciple-VEDisciple-VEDisciple-VEDisciple-VE
Virtual Experts for Multi-Domain Collaborative Planning
User’s Assistant
Virtual Team Manager
ScenarioSpecification
KB
KB
KB
KB
KB
DISTRIBUTEDKNOWLEDGE BASE
KB
Report Generator
PlanBrowser
Assistant TrainingModules
PlanAbstraction
Virtual Experts (VE) Library
Disciple-VEDisciple-VEDisciple-VE
Knowledge Management
Local Knowledge Base
Ontology Rules
Profile-based Team Selector
Disciple-VE
External-Expertise
Agent PlanGrading
Plan Brainstorming
CollaborativePlanner
VE TrainingModules
Assumption-based Reasoning
Knowledge Management
Local Knowledge Base
Ontology Rules
IndicatorsIdentification
Disciple-VE
Disciple-VE Disciple-VE
Disciple-VE Team of Virtual ExpertsDisciple-VE
User
Sample scenario: Planning the response to an emergency situation involving a tanker truck leaking red-fuming nitric acid near a student residential area of GMU.
Personal Cognitive Assistant for Intelligence Analysis
Virtual Experts for Multi-domain Collaborative Planning
Learning Agents Center: Research Vision
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent for Course of Action Critiquing
Overview
Agents for Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities
Final Remarks
Rapid development and evaluation of a Course of Action critiquer
DARPA’s HPKB Challenge Problem
To what extent does this course of action conform to the principle of surprise?
DARPA’s HPKB Program: Evaluation
Coverage
Pe
rfo
rma
nce
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0% 50% 100%
25% 75%
3
5
4
4
5
3
3
4 5
Coverage
(Evaluation Items 3, 4, and 5)
GMU
ISITFS/CyCorp
• High knowledge acquisition rate;
• Better results than the other evaluated systems;
• Better performance than the evaluating experts (many unanticipated solutions).
100%
Personal Cognitive Assistant for Intelligence Analysis
Virtual Experts for Multi-domain Collaborative Planning
Learning Agents Center: Research Vision
Research Issues for Learning Agents
Agent for Course of Action Critiquing
Overview
Agents for Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities
Final Remarks
2005, Learning Agents Center
Disciple’s Vision on the Future of Software Development
MainframeComputers
Software systems developed and used by computer experts
PersonalComputers
Software systems developedby computer experts
and used by persons thatare not computer experts
LearningAgents
Software systems developed and used by persons that are
not computer experts
DISCIPLE
Inte
rfac
e
ProblemSolving
Learning
Ontology+ Rules
2005, Learning Agents Center
Vision on the Use of Disciple in Education
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
The expert/teacher teaches Disciple through examples and explanations, in a way that is similar to how the expert would teach a student.
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
…
Disciple tutors the student in a way that is similar to how the expert/teacher has taught it.
teachesDiscipleAgent KB
2005, Learning Agents Center
2005, Learning Agents Center
The research performed in the Learning Agents Center was sponsored by several US government agencies including Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Air Force Research Laboratory, National Science Foundation, and Army War College.
Acknowledgements
2005, Learning Agents Center
Questions