AAE 450 Spring 2008 1

Alan Schwing3/6/08

PMCost and Catastrophic Failure Analysis

AAE 450 Spring 2008 2

Cost Analysis for ‘Current Designs’

! 200g & 5kg cases may be over-designed

– DNC is still working on following trajectories

PM

Payload DeltaV Nom. Perigee Nom. Eccentricity Total Cost *200 g 10730 [m/s] 677.39 [km] 0.0055 $3,590,5801 kg 9500 [m/s] 406.39 [km] 0.0054 $3,160,3285 kg 11313 [m/s] 773.14 [km] 0.0025 $4,661,869

*Does not include gondola costs (~$3000)

Thanks to Avionics, Balta, Childers, Lattibeaudiere, Ling, Morris, Shoemaker, and Wilcox

AAE 450 Spring 2008 3

Catastrophic Risk Analysis

! Risk Analysis based on historical studies– Most conservative values were used

– Failure rates applied to each stage

– Hybrid uses both liquid and solid failure rates

PM

Thanks to Bluestone and Waite

Item Failures+

Successes+

Failure Rate Success Rate

Stage 1 Liquid Propellant 1 208 9,792 2.08% 97.92%

Solid Propellants 1 144 9,856 1.44% 98.56%

Stage 2 Solid Propellants 1 144 9,856 1.44% 98.56%

Stage 3 Solid Propellants 1 144 9,856 1.44% 98.56%

Overall Stage or Payload Separation 2 23 9,977 0.23% 99.77%

Fairing Separation 2 28 9,972 0.28% 99.72%

Electrical 2 43 9,957 0.43% 99.57%

Avionics 2 43 9,957 0.43% 99.57%

Total 775 9,225 7.51% 92.49%+ Based on 10,000 launches

AAE 450 Spring 2008 4

References1) Chang, I-Shih., Tomei, Edmardo Joe., “Solid Rocket

Failures in World Space Launches.” AIAA Paper 2005-3793, Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, 41st,Tuscon, Az, July, 10-13, 2005.

2) Futron Corporation, Bethesda, MD. “Design ReliabilityComparison for SpaceX Falcon Vehicles.” November2004

PM

Payload: 200 g 115%

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 TotalPropulsion

PropellantFuel / Ox $1,834 $2,833 $186 $4,853Tubing $700 - - $700

Pressurant $24 - - $24Engine $679,720 $263,690 $79,930 $1,023,340LITVC $400 $400 - $800Balloon

Helium $74,905 - - $74,905Material $13,384 - - $13,384Gondola - - $0

Ground Costs $0Personel $42,000 - - $42,000Handling $2,000 $8,000 $8,000 $18,000

Structures$1,372,500 $780,100 $122,800 $2,275,400

$2,760 $930 $65 $3,755$19,603 $9,860 $8,956 $38,419

Welding $2,489 $1,344 $512Riveting $214 $116 $44Other $16,900 $8,400 $8,400

AvionicsWiring $8,000 - - $8,000

Material $500 - -Installation $7,500 - -

CPU - $10,000 - $10,000IMU - $15,000 - $15,000Sensors $8,000 - - $8,000Battery - $10,000 - $10,000Range Safety - $20,000 - $20,000Ground Tracking - $24,000 - $24,000

Total $3,590,580

Manufacturing

Cost Worksheet

TanksMaterial

Payload: 1 kg 125%

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 TotalPropulsion

PropellantFuel / Ox $1,188 $1,680 $225 $3,093Tubing $589 - - $589

Pressurant $38 - - $38Engine $634,090 $209,930 $86,860 $930,880LITVC $400 $400 - $800Balloon

Helium $53,213 - - $53,213Material $9,200 - - $9,200Gondola - - $0

Ground Costs $0Personel $42,000 - - $42,000Handling $2,000 $8,000 $8,000 $18,000

Structures$1,188,600 $633,100 $149,800 $1,971,500

$1,853 $560 $78 $2,490$14,952 $9,580 $8,992 $33,525

Welding $2,166 $1,087 $545Riveting $186 $94 $47Other $12,600 $8,400 $8,400

AvionicsWiring $8,000 - - $8,000

Material $500 - -Installation $7,500 - -

CPU - $10,000 - $10,000IMU - $15,000 - $15,000Sensors $8,000 - - $8,000Battery - $10,000 - $10,000Range Safety - $20,000 - $20,000Ground Tracking - $24,000 - $24,000

Total $3,160,328

TanksMaterialManufacturing

Cost Worksheet

Payload: 5 kg 125%

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 TotalPropulsion

PropellantFuel / Ox $5,171 $5,047 $192 $10,410Tubing $1,002 - - $1,002

Pressurant $166 - - $166Engine $1,138,700 $339,700 $80,900 $1,559,300LITVC $400 $400 - $800Balloon

Helium $152,320 - - $0Material $31,577 - - $0Gondola - - $0

Ground Costs $0Personel $42,000 - - $42,000Handling $2,000 $8,000 $8,000 $18,000

Structures$1,808,600 $943,500 $127,000 $2,879,100

$6,036 $1,692 $67 $7,795$29,123 $10,212 $8,961 $48,296

Welding $3,612 $1,668 $517Riveting $311 $144 $45Other $25,200 $8,400 $8,400

AvionicsWiring $8,000 - - $8,000

Material $500 - -Installation $7,500 - -

CPU - $10,000 - $10,000IMU - $15,000 - $15,000Sensors $8,000 - - $8,000Battery - $10,000 - $10,000Range Safety - $20,000 - $20,000Ground Tracking - $24,000 - $24,000

Total $4,661,869

Cost Worksheet

TanksMaterialManufacturing