6th International Conference in Interpretive Policy Analysis 2011: Discursive Spaces.

Politics, practices and Power

Panel 21: Who is too big to fail? Exploring Discourses of Crisis ManagementChair: Bob Jessop, Lancaster University, r.jessop@lancaster.ac.uk

The ecopolitical theory of postmaterialism in times of financial crisis and recession

Lorraine MacIntosh and Cassandra StarPolitics & Public Policy, School of Social & Policy Studies, Flinders University

Corresponding author: maci0040@flinders.edu.au

Keywords: postmaterialism, global financial crisis, climate change, ecological crisis

Abstract

The global economy is currently experiencing the consequences of both financial crisis

and ecological crisis. In 2007 financial practices in the United States of America resulted

in a financial crisis that quickly spread throughout the rest of the world. The result was a

global recession from 2008 through 2009 unlike any seen since the Great Depression of

the thirties (Gamble 2009). At the time this recession occurred the world was struggling

to agree on timely action to deal with an ecological crisis. A crisis that had arisen as

evidence mounted that human activities were changing the planet’s climate: climate on

which life on earth is dependent.

The analysis of how environmental policy making has stood up to this severe financial

and recessionary pressure has begun (Christie 2008; Tuxworth 2008). This paper seeks to

add to this academic debate by examining the effect of the global financial crisis and

recession on environmental policy using the explanatory power of the postmaterialist

school of ecopolitical theory. Comparative analysis across three nations provides insight

into how national factors have interacted with decisions taken. This study incorporates

analysis of polls and surveys as well as national discourses specifically related to

environmental policy and meeting Kyoto Protocol obligations. The use of discourse

analysis is supported by the way in which the problem is ‘framed’ through sources such

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as political speech, media and other means of influencing the debate, also governs what

changes will be made (Hajer 1996, p.247).

The severity of this crisis provides the strongest test of economic condition since the

inception of the theory of postmaterialism. While postmaterialism is a contested theory, it

makes an important contribution to understanding values and their influence on the policy

process. Analysis centres on whether postmaterialist values are upheld or suppressed

during economic uncertainty. It is contended that dominant economic discourse sidelines

postmaterialist discourse without necessarily suppressing it. Political discourse in some

cases is found to reflect post materialist values in rhetoric while pursuing policies that

support economic growth at the expense of environmental protection. Factors influencing

the reduction of support for climate change action as a priority issue in polls are also

examined.

Introduction

Boom times in many developed countries had most people, including economists,

thinking problems of business cycles were over and the good times were not going to end

(Gamble 2009, p.1). At the same time global warming from anthropogenic gas emissions,

loss of biodiversity, ozone depletion, and acid rain built awareness that human activity

could adversely affect the planet (Weart 2010). Onto this scene came a crisis of the

international financial market so severe it resulted in a global recession that was the worst

since the 1930s depression (Wolf 2009). Many expected environmental concern to be

sidelined by actions to maintain economic stability (Robison 2009), while others saw

opportunity for a transition to environmentally sustainable societies (Gamble 2009, p.

167; Robins, Clover et al. 2009a). Crises are times when ideas that have become

established as the wisdom of the time are found to be fallible. The result is that all the

ideas, knowledge, theories, and information available have to be reassessed to make

decisions on how to resolve the crisis and proceed.

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This paper contributes to this assessment by examining the effect of the global financial

crisis on environmental policy. This is done through analysing how elites discursively

constructed issues around the crisis and climate change policy at the time. This is then

related to the ecopolitical theory of postmaterialism to examine the explanatory value of

this theory. As ecopolitical theory only developed as a cohesive school of thought in the

late 1960s, the severity of the crisis and provides an opportunity to further examine those

ecopolitical theories related to material circumstance.

Postmaterialism and the role of value change, especially related to economic condition

and political action is discussed. This is followed by analysis of the discourse in three

case countries to determine how issues around the crisis were constructed in different

settings and how this relates to outcomes in climate change policy. The analysis explores

the relationship between material circumstances and ecopolitical outcomes. Finally

conclusions are presented with particular reference to postmaterialism as a theory and its

relationship with outcomes in the case countries as well as comparison across the cases.

Postmaterialism and its relationship to political action during crisis

Dalton states “values identify what people feel are - or should be - the goals of society

and the political system” and attributes new patterns in political action and support to

changing political values (Dalton 2008, p. 79). Socioeconomic, post-war development in

industrialised societies has led to these changes which have, in part, been evidenced

through non-traditional forms of political activity, which include what have been called

the ‘new social movements’: feminism, anti-nuclear, peace, and environmentalism.

Ronald Inglehart advanced one of the most enduring theories for this value change which

he termed postmaterialism (Inglehart 1971).

Inglehart’s theory of intergenerational value change advances two hypotheses. One is

based on the premise that people will value what is scarce and take for granted those

things that are in abundant supply (the scarcity hypothesis). The second hypothesis

concerns the effect of economic security during young people’s politically formative

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years on value formation and that these values tend to persist during life (socialisation

hypothesis) (Inglehart and Abramson 1994). Inglehart’s index, a four or 12 point

preference ordering, has been used extensively for over thirty years in international value

surveys thereby providing a valuable source of empirical data for examining change over

time.

The lively debate about this theory of social and political change has attracted many

adherents (Abramson 1997; Dalton 2008; Díez Nicolás 2008b) and opponents (Clarke

and Dutt 1991; Duch and Taylor 1993; Trantor and Western 2003) whose work is

covered elsewhere in an extensive body of literature for example see (Inglehart 1971;

Marks 1997; Inglehart and Abramson 1999; Inglehart 2008). This paper concentrates on

the effects the adverse economic conditions have on postmaterialism and examines the

relationship of postmaterial values with the discourse and political actions during this

period. Inglehart more recently has identified “a broader cultural shift” in societies

associated with greater autonomy and self expression in all facets of modern lifestyles

(Inglehart 2008). Value change is important in the political process as it increases the

diversity of issues that are important to people, it affects the patterns of political

participation, and it shifts the issues of public debate (Dalton 2008, p.93-94).

This study analyses discourse using elite interviews in three case countries, media

discourse, climate change political actions and public opinion data. These methods are

appropriate given the contemporary nature of the issue. Elites are the people who

influenced or were involved in making decisions during this time. The media adopts

much of their discourse and introduce their interpretation of what the major players are

saying. By examining the policy actions it is possible to see if a gap exists between the

discourse and decisions taken. Surveys give a measure of what citizens felt about the

issue of climate change action during this time and measures of postmaterialism in each

country.

From 2000 a tapering off or decline in postmaterialism in some countries has been

observed (Inglehart 2008; Díez Nicolás 2008b) which to date only has tentative

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explanations. The financial crisis and economic problems of advanced industrial societies

provides an extreme period of financial uncertainty to further examine the postulations

behind this trend as well as the reaction of political actors. In this way the study extends

knowledge of postmaterialism and value change in the societies studied and the

relationship with environmental political action.

Background on Australia, New Zealand and Spain – economic, climate change

policy, postmaterialism and discourses

The three nations used to examine the relationship between the global recession,

postmaterialism, and policy discourses are: Spain, Australia and New Zealand. Each

country is discussed in terms of relevant background, climate change policy, discourse

used during the crisis period, postmaterialism and public opinion during this period.

Political environmental action focuses on climate change policy as the crisis coincided

with a time of increased international pressure for governments to introduce policy to

mitigate global warming. This study looks at how issues were discursively constructed

and how postmaterialist values within the citizenry related to the debate. In doing so this

study aims to reveal how this ecopolitical theory can explain what occurs during the

extreme economic conditions presented by the financial crisis and recession.

Australia

Political background and climate change policy. Environmental reform was a key issue

in the 2007 election (Rootes 2008) and one of the first acts of the new Australian Labor

Party, ALP, Government was to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Australia is a country that is

already being affected by global warming (van Ommen and Morgan 2010) and the

increasing frequency and severity of extreme events is being attributed to climate change.

The Government began the process to introduce an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in

2008, but eventually postponed this plan in May 2010 (MacKay 2010). The process

towards legislation on emissions trading coincided with the greatest period of uncertainty

related to the GFC in Australia. The Rudd Labor Government introduced a Green Paper

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on the proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) in June 2008 and a White

Paper with details of the emissions limits on 15 December 2008. A leadership change and

the call for early elections in 2010 were largely linked to actions related to the

Government’s failure to introduce the CPRS.

Economy . Australia’s highest export earnings in 2009 were from mining exports (39.3%)

followed by manufacturing exports (32.5%) (Australian Government 2009). Australia is

the largest exporter of coal in the world (Australian Coal Association 2010), derives 80%

of internal energy from burning coal and also has one of the highest per capita emissions

in the world. The value of the extractive industries to the Australian economy means that

this sector has considerable influence in political debates. Australia, like all OECD

countries, went through a period from October 2008 into the first months of 2009 where

the economy was characterized by disruption to the flow of finance, lack of credit for

businesses and high uncertainty on what was going to happen internationally.

Government reaction at this time, combined with key Asian trading partners only

suffering short v-shaped economic downturn, meant Australia only recorded one quarter

of negative growth and thereby avoided officially going into recession; the only OECD

country to do so.

Public opinion and postmaterialism. A majority of people support action on climate

change in Australia. Lowy Institute surveys show majority support for action on climate

remained high through to 2010 although a decrease in willingness to pay for it was

recorded (Hanson 2010, p.14-5). A vocal counter climate change movement is a feature

of the climate change debate in Australia. Postmaterialism in Australia, calculated from

various sources which included Inglehart’s 4-item measurement, shows Australia to have

had an increasing percentage of postmaterialists from 1988 through to 1996 with 18.5%

although a reduction is noted by 2001 (Trantor and Western 2003). The World Values

Survey (WVS) of 1995 and 2005 measured levels of 35.0% and 21.3% postmaterialists

respectively (World Values Survey 2005) although Trantor and Western suggest reasons

for the seemingly anomalous 1995 result (Trantor and Western 2003, p.243).

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Discourse and framing of issues during crisis.

Elite: According to Rudd his government inherited "a decade of denial and neglect" and

"climate change is the greatest moral, economic and social challenge of our time" (Manne

2008). His discourse going into Copenhagen included scathing attacks on all those he saw

trying to subvert the process of a new agreement including the opposition leader and

party (Morton and Flitton 2009). As the process for introducing the ETS got underway

the economically related discourse in Australia featured: not going ahead of the rest of

the world, going it alone, the rest of the world is doing nothing, and our emissions are

insignificant. More specifically related to the GFC were: industry needs to claw back

spending, every single dollar counted, trade-exposed industry need to stay competitive,

and that a conservative approach in policy at this time. On climate change action the

discourse included: an acknowledgement that a majority are concerned about climate

change action, people are ambivalent and just want the Government to do something, the

CPRS isn’t strong enough or is too strong. Once Copenhagen ‘fell over’ and Mr Abbott

became leader of the opposition, he effectively attacked the CPRS for being ‘a great big

tax on everything’. The widespread opinion of the elites interviewed was that the GFC

had little or only indirect influence on what happened with the CPRS policy process

during this time.

Media: “Some want us to conclude there was never any threat to the economy” and “the

talk-back jocks and a few right-wing types did their best to convince everyone it was

going to be the end of the Earth” (Interview, Participant [19]). The Murdoch media has

been accused of blatantly pursuing an opposing stance, and coordination use of internet

communication has been used to attack the science and scientists themselves through

cyber-bullying (Hamilton 2010). Opposition from extractive industry sector had been

well coordinated with intensive lobbying and use of the media to promote their interests

(Kevin 2009) The Australian Government cite the “deepening global recession” as the

reason for delaying the ETS until 2012 (Robins, Clover et al. 2010, p.14). In 2010

‘business and community want certainty’ emerged as some industry sectors did a seeming

about-face calling for a price on carbon (Coorey 2010). Garnaut introduced the term

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“diabolical challenge” into general discourse of climate change as a policy issue in his

review (Garnaut 2008).

New Zealand

Political background and climate change policy. New Zealand ratified the Kyoto

Protocol 6 months after the EU in 2002. Climate change predictions are for changed

rainfall patterns with more rain in much of the country and drought periods in some

eastern regions (MfE 2009). New Zealand has an unusual emissions profile with 70%

renewable energy production, mostly from hydro-power generation, and the high

proportion of emissions is from agricultural. In New Zealand an ETS was enacted under

the Labour Government in September 2008, two months before the 2008 elections. There

was consensus in the two main parties that New Zealand should have an ETS. Although

modified and delayed by the new National Party Government, the scheme came into law

on 1 July, 2010 for the stationary energy, industrial processes and liquid fossil fuels

sectors. Agriculture will not be included before 2015. As dairy products are the largest

agricultural export, the intensification of dairy farming comes under scrutiny from ETS

due to methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and there is strong sectoral opposition and

lobbying against the ETS. The National Government led an initiative at Copenhagen to

establish the Global Research Alliance to look for solutions for agricultural greenhouse

gases. Counter climate change discourse is evident as in Australia.

Economy . The principal source of export earnings is from the primary sector which is

mostly made up from agriculture, horticulture, forestry, mining and fishing (Statistics

New Zealand 2009). New Zealand is considered a trade-exposed economy due to its

geographical isolation and open economy with limited tariffs and trade protection

agreements. New Zealand began to be influenced by international financial problems as

early as 2007 with many smaller financial institutions failing (Braddock 2008). Recession

was officially announced after negative growth in the first two quarters of 2008 and was

recorded for 5 quarters.

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Public opinion and postmaterialism. In 2004/2005 New Zealand was included in the

WVS and the 4-item measurement used for the first time. The result for postmaterialists

was 17.9% and materialist 8.7% (World Values Survey 2005). Support for action on

climate change is high although New Zealanders were less willing-to-pay during 2009

and 2010 (Stuart 2010). On Inglehart’s cultural dimensions New Zealand is grouped with

the English speaking countries having a high level of self-expression and in the middle on

the traditional and secular-rational values scale. Only Canada, Switzerland and Sweden

rate higher than New Zealand on self-expression on the 2005-2007 cultural map

(Inglehart and Welzel 2010, p.554).

Discourse and framing of issues during crisis.

Elite: Discourse relating to discourse around the ETS debate included: rent seeking, self-

interest, complexity and abstractness of issue, price sensitivity, sense of identity – ‘our

clean green image’, protecting the environment, and ‘doing our fair share’. When

National delayed the scheme and set up a review committee: National ‘softened’ the

legislation, we won’t if they (rest of the world) don’t, why should we lead the world?,

we’re positioned as a fast follower (Interview, Participant [4]), the plumbing’s in place,

climate change is off the agenda, care with trade-exposed businesses, ‘greenies gave us

grief’, no one else has included all sectors and all greenhouse gases in their ETS. NZ was

already in recession when GFC started, and several interviewed said the GFC had no

effect on ETS policy process. Drought, rather than financial problems, was cited as the

cause of the recession (Interview, Participant [8]).

Media: Media reports in relation to the ETS focused on; increase energy prices, the

denialist point of view, why should NZ do anything when no one else is, we’re so small

what we do doesn’t matter, “we strut alone on an empty world stage” (George 2010),

‘softening of attitudes’ toward the issue of climate change, “prepare for pain in the

pocket”, creating jobs, and slow growth decade. Many prominent commentators support

action and the discourse also includes; ‘chilling warnings’, gap between rhetoric and

action, green foot-prints, forest-sinks, need to remember trading partners accept the

science, and doing our fair share. While economic discourse became more prominent, the

importance of being good moral international citizens is important for New Zealanders as

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demonstrated by the ban on nuclear powered or carrying ships still being “a sacrosanct

touchstone of New Zealand foreign policy” (Shepheard and McCracken 2009).

Spain

Political background and climate change policy. Spain had lagged on European Union (EU)

directed climate change policy implementation and only in recent years, before the financial

crisis, had begun to make serious attempts to address their environmental requirements as

part of the EU (Tábara 2007, p.162; Fernández, Font et al. 2010). Spain has difficulty

meeting its emission allocations, mainly due to its rapid industrialisation, and emissions

increased by 67.5% in the period from 1990 to 2007 (IEA 2009). Environmental policy is

dealt with within a new ministry which combined the previous ministries of agriculture,

fisheries, food and environment in 2008. Strong climate changes especially related to water

stress are predicted (Moyano, Paniagua et al. 2008). Citizens generally hold the

government of Spain and the EU responsible for mitigating climate change at a global level

(Moyano, Paniagua et al. 2008, p.68). That anthropogenic climate change is occurring is

widely accepted by the population and elites (Bowden 2010, p.2). The Kyoto Protocol was

ratified in 2002 as part of the EU and came into force in 2005 and as such Spain has been a

part of the EU ETS since 2005. Spain has been active in developing renewable energy with

feed-in tariffs. It is one of the biggest wind energy generators in the world and has already

met its EU 2020 target of 20% wind generated energy (EWEA 2011). In 2011 it’s leading

the world with solar thermal energy production. In November 2009 Spain hosted the last

preparatory session prior to the Copenhagen talks.

Economy . Spain joined the European Community in 1986 and the eurozone in 1999. Spain

is one of the European states most severely affected by the recession with official

unemployment over 20% in 2010 and a public deficit of 11.4% of GDP (Mallet 2010).

Spain, as in the United States of America and Ireland experienced unprecedented growth in

their property and construction sector and when this ‘bubble’ burst it exposed the weakness

of development in other sectors (Magone 2009). The depressed economic conditions show

little sign of improving and doubt persists that they will manage financially without

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international assistance (Münchau 2011). The principal source of Spain’s export earnings

are from manufacturing (Bank of Spain 2010).

Public opinion and postmaterialism. Spain has experienced various stages of economic

growth since the 1960s to become the advanced post industrialised state it is today. This has

made it an interesting case to examine the development of postmaterialist values. On

Inglehart and Welzel’s cultural map it is midway between traditional and secular values and

positive on self-expression values (Inglehart and Welzel 2010, p.354). In 2007 Spain

showed 11.5% postmaterialists and 34.8% materials using the 4-item measure (World

Values Survey 2005). Postmaterialist values had been steadily increasing up until 1999 but

showed a decrease since that year (Díez Nicolás 2008b, p.256).

Discourse and framing of issues during crisis.

Elite: Mr Zapatero didn’t talk crisis or recession until late 2009, and displayed what

Mallet (2010) referred to as some sort of optimism (Mallet, Barber et al. 2010). Delagdo

and Lopez Nieto point to the political debate became increasingly dominated by the

economy during 2008 (Delgado and Lopez Nieto 2009). In the Spanish presentation to

the Barcelona COP15 meeting in November 2009, Spain listed endless bureaucratic

committees and groups set up to deal with various aspects of policy but gave little

indication of specific actions and emission savings achieved (Government of Spain 2009.

This suggests a significant gap between the rhetoric and policy action.

Media: There is limited commentary on climate change policy unless a particular event

occurs for example when the Government announced cost cutting measures would

include guaranteed solar feed-in tariff reduction (Mallet 2010b). The lack of contested

debate on climate change seems to be reflected in limited discourse on the issue. The

media is mostly supportive of climate change science and NGOs are given coverage and

are mostly approved of by the people. For investors the most important economic

information comes from “the pronouncements of European politicians” (Mallet and Ford

2011). By late 2010 it was noted that the EU discourse had moved from the usual moral

responsibility and survival of humanity discourse, to one of energy efficiency and

improved innovation will save money. This narrative being considered more suited to “a

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public consumed with the economic crisis and that may be less concerned with rising seas

than job security” (Chaffin 2010). This is supported in EU documents with ‘smart

growth, green growth’ being the direction European economies need to take for recovery

(smart growth countries are China, South Korea) (Jaeger, Paroussos et al. 2011).

Discussion of postmaterialism, economic conditions and climate change actions in

each case

Influence of postmaterialism in relation to these advanced industrialised societies and

policy process.

Since Inglehart introduced his theory of generational value change in 1971 he has refined

the theory as debate on the theory developed and more empirical evidence became

available. Within the last ten years he points to postmaterialism being part of a broader

cultural change that is occurring in post-industrial states. A key link between broader

cultural change and postmaterialism is greater self-expression. This cultural change is

seen as a driver of greater democratisation of a society and persists despite globalisation

(Inglehart and Welzel 2010).

Inglehart (2008) identifies a polarisation between traditional and secular-rational values,

and also between survival and self-expression values (Inglehart 2008, p.139). Related to

this Inglehart and Welzel (2010) have developed a cultural map which includes the three

case countries according to their alignment on these two scales (Inglehart and Welzel

2010, p.554). According to Inglehart’s assessment traditional values “place strong

emphasis on religion, respect for authority, and have low levels of tolerance for abortion

and divorce and have relatively high level of national pride. Secular-rational values have

the opposite characteristics.” While self-expression values emphasise equality and

tolerance of out-groups such as gays and foreigners and people “give high priority to

environmental protection, tolerance of diversity and rising demand for participation in

decision making in economic and political life” (Inglehart 2008, p.139-140).

Postmaterialism relates strongly to the self-expression dimension.

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Inglehart stresses that values change, and subsequent cultural change, is a very slow

process and occurs principally from generational change. For example the socialisation

and scarcity hypotheses would suggest that the generation reacting adulthood during this

time of the current crisis would be more materialist. But there would be a time lag of 10

to 15 years until this generation has a political impact in the electorate, and another 10

years through entering positions of power and influence in society where their

postmaterial values influence what happens (Inglehart 2008, p.132). Inglehart has

demonstrated period effects related to recession where postmaterialist choose more

materialist answers but revert back to postmaterialist answers when the recession is over.

In this way postmaterialism endures in spite of recessions (Inglehart 1981).

The theory contends that economic growth and existential security since World War II

has resulted in cultural change that is driving change in politics and institutions. These

institutions need to be responsive to citizens who are more autonomous and self-

expressive. With the global financial crisis of 2008 this paper seeks to explore how policy

actions and the discourse in the three study countries are related to such values change.

Australia

When Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister of the Labor Government in 2007 he

repeatedly reiterated throughout 2008 that his government inherited "a decade of denial

and neglect" and that "climate change is the greatest moral, economic and social

challenge of our time” (Manne 2008, p.13). After ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, the new

Government began the policy process for introducing an ETS, the Carbon Pollution

Reduction Scheme (CPRS). While in opposition Labor commissioned a review of climate

change policy by the economist Ross Garnaut along similar lines to the 2006 Stern

Review in Great Britain. The Garnaut Climate Change Review was released during 2008

(Garnaut 2008), as were the Green and White papers on the CPRS.

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But for all the initial talk and action, by mid-2010 the CPRS had been postponed

indefinitely, Labor had had a leadership change and a new election in July saw Labor

forming a minority government with the slimmest margin. Discourse around the failure to

introduce the CPRS highlights failures within the Government itself; internal decision

making processes, Prime Minister Rudd’s style of leadership, and his rival’s political

ambitions (Taylor 2010). The Coalition changing from a position of support to opposing

the scheme, and the influence of industry and environmental lobby groups also played a

major part.

Australia has a large, highly organised lobbying industry made up of 150 groups,

spending over one billion Australian dollars a year (Source Watch). Once the White

Paper was released with specific figures for the CPRS, the lobby groups went into

‘overdrive’ (Interview, Participant [24]). Powerful private interests and the influence of

the ‘lobby machine’ are features of Australian politics and some elites interviewed felt

the GFC reinforced the influence of the industry lobby during this period. In particular

opposition from the extractive industry sector was well coordinated with intensive

lobbying (Kevin 2009, p.19). Discourse focused on business costs, ‘every single dollar

will hurt us’, the crisis and CPRS are a ‘double whammy’, ‘we can’t afford to go ahead

of the rest of the world’, and ‘we can’t afford to go it alone’, we need to protect

employment, we must protect trade-exposed business, we have to stay competitive, all

became catch cries. But even in the face of such an intensive campaign, a government

elected with a key issue of acting on climate change, had a clear mandate from the

citizens to do something. Their failure to do so and the intensity of lobbying during this

crucial period make it obvious to question their ability to act independently of vested

interests in Australia (Garnaut 2009, p.201).

Several elites interviewed compared the CPRS process to the introduction of the goods

and services tax under Howard in the late 90s. “Howard spent two and half years on that

and not much else. Introducing a complex economic reform in a contested political space

you need time for internal decision making and time to counteract scare campaigns”

(Interview, Participant [22]). Comments from some elites support the perception that the

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GFC distracted the Government from putting in the required effort to move the CPRS.

Issues relating to the content of the White Paper, restricted efforts from the Government

to react to attacks on the policy, and internal Government problems of making decisions

(Taylor 2010) would have led to problems with the introduction of the policy regardless

of the GFC.

There were still a significant number of elites interviewed that said the GFC didn’t affect

the legislative failure of the CPRS, and if there was any effect, it was only indirect at

most. The view that Australia had no recession and had escaped largely unscathed from

the GFC, was widespread by 2010. ‘Downturn’ became common currency for what

occurred to the economy in Australia and memory of the uncertainty and financial

problems seem to have evaporated. But it is clear from media reports, parliamentary

debates, and written accounts of the time that considerable financial stress and

uncertainty was widespread in Australia during the second half of 2008 and first half of

2009. “Some want us to conclude there was never any threat to the economy” was the

opinion of one commentator interviewed (Interview, Participant [19]).

Public opinion in Australia has been characterised by majority support for action on

climate change. By 2010 support for action was 72% but priority of the issue and

willingness to pay for it had dropped (Hanson 2010, p.1) In contrast to frequent polling of

opinion there has been limited study on value change or postmaterialism, although

Inglehart’s 4-item measure of postmaterialism has been used in various surveys and

forms since 1988 (Trantor and Western 2003, p.243). Australia has had a high standard of

living and material welfare for most of the second half of the twentieth and the level of

postmaterialism measured over time supports there being a value change in Australia

(Inglehart and Abramson 1999). An influential Green Party (Turnbull and Vromen 2006),

membership of environmental organisations, lobbying of politicians, use of the internet

and alternate forms of political action support Inglehart’s cultural assessment of Australia

as one of the group of English speaking countries measuring highly on self-expression

values. In fact only four countries measure higher on this measure on the 2005-7 cultural

map (Inglehart and Welzel 2010, p.554). These political features support Russell Dalton’s

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(2008) contention that modern developed states are developing a new style of citizen

politics and also that postmaterialists are more also likely to be politically active than

materialists as they show a greater interest in politics (Dalton 2008, p.92).

During the crisis, the CPRS has been constructed as a threat to economic stability and

growth (Coorey 2010). It has also been regarded as a threat to national security as

discourse around expected climate changes in Asia is linked with ‘climate refugees’ and

increasing numbers of ‘asylum seekers’, a very emotive political issue in Australia

(Chaturvedi and Doyle 2010). The Australian ‘lobby machine’ promoted opinions from

scientists that were contrary to the consensus view of climate scientists, conservative

newspapers, such as the Australian, attack climate change science and at times, the

scientists themselves (Hamilton 2010). Also criticising right-wing denialists, one

interviewee commented “the talk-back jocks and a few right-wing types did their best to

convince everyone it was going to be the end of the Earth” (Interview, Participant [19]).

It is probably notable that despite the discourse related to lobbying against the CPRS, the

reappearance of ‘latent’ denialists or ‘ascendant hardliners’ within the opposition

(Grattan 2009) and vocal denialists in the media, public opinion continues to show

majority support for action on climate change.

The Labor Party’s inability to deal with this issue effectively and Prime Minister Rudd’s

abandonment of the CPRS is related by almost all those interviewed to the public’s loss

of confidence in both Rudd and the ALP. The Labor leadership change and the

unprecedented, near second term defeat in the 2010 elections are both attributed to this

loss of confidence. This could be a case for showing how a government has failed to keep

relevant to changing values and their associated issues. As Dalton (2008) points out “the

issues of political debate are shifting” and “concerns about environmental protection,

individual freedom, social equality, participation, and the quality of life have been added

to the traditional political agenda of economic and security issues”(Dalton 2008, p.94).

Perhaps a key mistake of the Rudd, and later the Gillard led Governments have been to

underestimate the importance of new issues on the political agenda. Rudd won the

election with a discourse that included needing to take action on the greatest moral issue

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of our age but was able to put this aside with no apparent fight when other interests

seemed greater. His rhetoric did not match his actions.

New Zealand

New Zealand had a change of government in November 2008. The out-going Labour

Government had completed the policy process to legislate an ETS and did so weeks

before the 2008 election. The discourse under Labour had focused on New Zealand being

a leader in emissions reduction legislation and moral obligations as global citizens as had

occurred during the anti-nuclear debate of the 1980s (Buhrs and Christoff 2006). Under

the National Government and with the GFC at its worst, the discourse shifted to New

Zealand couldn’t afford to be a leader, it was too small to matter, the country shouldn’t be

going alone, no one else was doing anything and if they were, New Zealand was doing

much more than the anyone else. Going into the election the National Party had

campaigned to industry sectors and businesses that they would modify the ETS ‘to reduce

barriers to economic growth’ (Fleming 2008). This close relationship of the National

Party with these groups made it doubtful that the National Government would be able to

act independently of them.

Coming into power they immediately announced delays and established a review

committee in December 2008 (Fleming 2008). The scheme was eventually substantially

‘softened’ (Fallow 2011) and the government discourse became ‘doing our fair share’ and

‘New Zealand can not afford to be a leader and we are positioned to be a fast follower’

(Interview, Participant [4]). The changes made included delaying the date for the entry of

agriculture until 2015, delay the initial start for other sectors until July 2010 and

substantial relief for trade-exposed industries (Smith 2009). Because there was consensus

between the two main parties that an ETS was the desired instrument for controlling

greenhouse gas emissions, political action centred on trying to influence the design of the

scheme. The amended scheme met with approval from business groups but met with

continued, vigorous opposition from Federated Farmers (Fallow 2009). The softening of

the scheme and lowering of the issue as a priority send signals that climate change is not

17

a serious issue and can be dealt with later when economic conditions improve. For

example “Climate change public policy should … be moderate and measured until such

time as it is appropriate, and justified, to be otherwise” David Venables of Greenhouse

Policy Coalition, GPC (Walker 2010).

Industry lobby groups in New Zealand are well organised although many in such groups,

for example the GPC, accept that anthropogenic climate change is occurring. These

groups see their role as ensuring they protect the competitiveness of their industries and

that New Zealand New Zealand should not act until other key trading partners do

(Interview, Participant [5]). Federated Farmers is a notable exception to other business

sectors with their vigorous opposition to the inclusion of agriculture in the scheme and

that the ETS should be abandoned altogether. “Farmers don’t want a bar of it” (Fallow

2011). ‘Rent seeking’ by those included in the ETS was felt to be an important driver of

the modifications to the scheme by some groups (Interview, Participant [14]).

Public opinion surveys show ongoing, majority support for action on reducing carbon

emissions during the financial crisis (ShapeNZ 2007; ShapeNZ 2009a; Stuart 2010).

Although the survey by the GPC in 2010 found a “softening in attitudes towards the issue

of climate change” with less people inclined to think the issue is ‘pressing’ after it was

rated 10th in social and political issues (Stuart 2010). The New Zealand Government took

this survey to indicate they have the balance on the ETS right for the majority of New

Zealanders (Bowden 2010).

Postmaterialist values are manifest in the discourse which expounds the importance of

quality of life, the country’s ‘pure, clean, green image’, support for environmental

protection, New Zealand’s anti-nuclear stance, support of unconventional political

activity – protest, direct contact with Members of Parliament, signing petitions, and

membership of environmental groups. The gap between citizens and politicians is

relatively small in New Zealand and it is not difficult for citizens to talk directly with

their Member of Parliament. As Inglehart and Welzel (2005) have shown, New Zealand

is the third highest country on the self-expression values on their cultural map (Inglehart

18

and Welzel 2005, p.63). Perhaps this small gap between citizens and politicians relative

to other countries accounts for the Government sensitivity to the mood of the people

(Laugesen 2010). During the GFC they have tried to balance citizen’s support for taking

action on climate change with protecting trade-exposed businesses influence due to the

uncertain financial conditions of the crisis. Like Australia, New Zealand has a vocal

denialist sector of the population although their influence appears less coordinated than in

Australia and the mainstream newspapers show less bias towards taking a particular

climate change stance. Overall New Zealanders place importance on ‘needing to do the

right thing’ but the GFC has made them more cautious about being a leader on climate

change especially when they perceive their allies Australia and the US are avoiding

introducing an ETS.

Spain

A distinctive feature of the political reaction and discourse related to the GFC in Spain

was the Zapatero led Government’s initial unwillingness to acknowledge the crisis

(Mallet, Barber et al. 2010). So while the citizens received news of the effects of the

crisis relating to other countries and experienced effects themselves, there was no

discourse of crisis coming from their government throughout 2009. Referred to by the

Financial Times (2010) as “the perennially optimistic José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero”

who wouldn’t use the ‘c’ word in the face of the rapidly deteriorating economy of the

country added to the country’s problems by alienating foreign investors (Mallet 2010a;

Mallet, Barber et al. 2010). A property bubble, fueled by cheap international finance,

imploded exposing the weakness of development in other sectors of the economy

(Magone 2009). As with the crash of the USA and Irish property booms, problems were

evident back in 2007 and failures of realtors, construction companies, increased during

2008 well ahead of the global crisis. Spain went from a surplus situation of 2.2% gross

domestic product, GDP, in 2007 to a deficit of 11.2% GDP by 2009. After 15 years of

growth the country went into recession in the third quarter of 2008 (BBC 2008).

Unemployment, although always higher than other European countries, reached 12.8%

by October 2008, 17.4% by April 2009 and 21% in April 2011. Such conditions had ‘ el

19

crisis’ foremost in the minds of the citizens and as a key issue in the media, even if

government discourse was lacking.

Environmental policy relating to climate change is mostly decided at the supranational

level through EU agreements and directives from the European Commission. Spain has

obligations to meet targets relating to emissions reduction, waste reduction, and

renewable energy production amongst others. Internally a pressing domestic issue is to

deal with water distribution: a problem with a long and highly contested history in Spain

(Saurí and del Moral 2001). The agriculture, fisheries, food and environment ministries

were amalgamated in 2008 (Altieri and Caprile 2009), a move that was seen by many as

showing the Government’s decreased focus on the environment as an issue.

An influences on public opinion and discourse on climate change issues is that policy

action is mostly dealt with at the autonomous region level (Tábara 2007). Although a

study of public opinion on climate change in Andalusia showed citizens were able to

differentiate which institutions were responsible for the scale of the problem and that they

generally hold the government of Spain and the European Union responsible for

mitigating global climate change (Moyano, Paniagua et al. 2008, p.68). That

anthropogenic climate change is occurring is widely accepted by the population and

elites. This is reflected in everyday activities such as the proportion of environmentally

related advertising in media, personal actions to reduce emissions, environmental actions

at community level by town-halls, and so forth. Even so there is a tendency to look at the

issue of climate change on a local level rather than globally (Moyano, Paniagua et al.

2008) and there is a feeling industry is responsible for most emissions and therefore

should be responsible for reductions. Most citizens would be ignorant of any detail of the

EU emissions trading scheme and how Spain is performing in regard to its obligations.

Díez-Nicolás (2008) through the Análisis Sociológicos Económicos y Políticos (ASEP)

has been able to evaluate value change in Spain using a database of more than 200

surveys which include Inglehart’s 12-item measurement from 1988 to present day (Díez

Nicolás 2008b). Spain, as a late but rapidly industrialising state, has been of special

20

interest in testing the postmaterialist thesis and has showed good support for the theory

until 2000. Díez-Nicolás points to terrorism, organised crime, corruption, high

unemployment, climate change, social and economic inequalities, delinquency, threats

associated with nuclear energy, globalisation of markets affecting personal security as

possibly influencing a return to materialist values in post-industrial societies (Díez

Nicolás 2008a, p.17). Researchers such as Díez-Nicolás, and Inglehart himself, are

expanding or adapting the theory to explain such observations (Inglehart 2008; Inglehart

and Welzel 2010). A ‘period effort’ on postmaterialist values during the 1992-4 period in

Spain probably related to high unemployment, corruption scandal in the government

circles and “great uncertainties about the future”(Díez Nicolás 2008b, p.256). A similar

or greater period effect would be expected during the current recession given its severity.

Spain, as it moved to becoming a post-industrial state, demonstrated a rise in the

expression of postmaterial values: increased self-expression, prioritising the environment

over economic growth, individualism, equality between men and women, preoccupation

with the aesthetic and quality of life, increase in the importance of relations and self

realisation at work and the political implication. NGOs are held in high esteem although

this doesn’t translate into membership, and social protest tends to be sporadic and

opportunistic which Magone (2009) associates with a shift to more self-expressive values

(Magone 2009, p.66-67). The internet and mobile phones are rapidly becoming a popular

forum for expressing opinions, networking and coordinating action. A high profile case in

2011 showed the potential for this type of action when several members of parliament

requested changing their vote on air travel privileges when fierce disapproval was

recorded on the internet (Editorial 2011). Later in May the youth protests during the local

body elections were organised through social networking sites (Mallet 2011).

But even with evidence of new political actions and postmaterialist values during the

crisis, discourse has focused on the economic, especially employment. With over one

fifth of the work force without work, and a disproportional number of young people

either without work or facing poor employment prospects as they enter the work force,

this issue becomes an overwhelming concern for most of the population. As one

21

commentator commented “when people don’t have jobs that’s all you can talk about”

(Interview, Participant [19]) although Spanish politicians appear slow to heed such

wisdom with issues like corruption scandals, and ETA terrorists regularly catching

headlines. Since the property market collapse there has been a focus on the issue of

political corruption, especially urban development irregularities at local government level

(Delgado and Lopez Nieto 2009). The issue of corruption coupled with a general loss in

confidence of President Zapatero, due to his seeming unwillingness to acknowledge the

seriousness of the crisis and take action for more than a year, exacerbated the gap

between citizens and politicians that already exists in Spain (Magone 2009, p.45). Since

mid 2010 the Zapatero Government has begun taking the economic measures required of

them to prevent a bail-out by the European Central Bank. Still, the recovery is expected

to be a protracted, difficult process with low economic growth for many years.

Discourse within the Spanish elite concentrates on neoliberal solutions and economic

growth as the imperative. ‘Smart growth’ and ‘green growth’ are used to describe where

economic opportunities lie and the desired direction of economic growth in Europe

(Jaeger, Paroussos et al. 2011) and in Spain there is discourse around the advantages new

green technologies can introduce into economies. Spain’s renewable energy industry is

frequently promoted in political speech and the media.

The media discourse in Spain, as in most European countries, is predominantly nationally

focused with little European Union information dealt with (Machill, Beiler et al. 2006).

This leads to limited information in the media on European climate change policy such as

the ETS. Increasing costs to citizens associated with meeting increasing emission

reduction levels is common in the discourse in both New Zealand and Australia but

doesn’t occur in Spain. Spain was one of the European countries that endorsed moving to

30% emission reduction on 1990 levels by 2020 (Roling 2011). Undoubtedly ‘el paro’ or

unemployment is an overwhelmingly important issue in Spain and although this does

remove climate change actions from discourse, citizens still expect this the Government

to deal with the issue.

22

The similarities and differences between the case countries

Both Australia and New Zealand had a majority of citizens wanting their governments to

take action on climate change and it was a key issue in their respective 2007 and 2008

elections. Majority support for action endured during the crisis although the priority of

the issue and willingness to pay for action declined. Whether this decline was due to

concern about material well-being or the scare campaigns, lobbying discourse and

denialist campaign run in each country is not clear. It is likely there is a combination of

the two, and the scare campaigners were able to use the fear of economic security caused

by the crisis to influence people. Discourse in both countries included: not going alone or

ahead of others, our emissions are so low they don’t matter, that it was going to make

businesses uncompetitive, and it was going to cost citizens a lot. The notable point is that

support for action stayed high, despite this discourse around material well-being.

New Zealand and Australia are advanced industrialised economies that have enjoyed

secure, prosperous conditions since World War II. Spain contrasts with this developing

much later and rapidly. Since the early 80s to this current recession they have

experienced the benefits of continuous growth apart from a period between 1992-4 when

there was high unemployment and concern about the success of democracy after high

level political scandals emerged (Díez Nicolás 2008b, p.256). On Inglehart and Welzel’s

(2010) cultural map, the three countries are very comparable on the traditional/secular

scale and all are positive on self expression value measurement, although New Zealand

and Australia rate much higher than Spain. Spain, as a relatively late industrial developer,

is showing the development of individualism and self-expression associated with

advanced industrialised states. The crisis period has provided a test these new values

against the moderation in political discourse that has been a characteristic of Spain since

the transition to democracy (Magone 2009, p.33). Magone contributes the Spanish social

protests that have become sporadic and opportunistic to the growth of individualism and

self-expressive values and the “decline and erosion of division” such as the Church and

political parties (Magone 2009, p.66).

23

That support for action on climate change stayed high in all three countries suggests

people did not revert to only worrying about their own well-being or more survivalist

values. New Zealanders and Australians were more exposed to debate on action that the

Spanish and one would expect the governments of those two countries to be more

sensitive to citizen concerns. That successive Australian governments, even though they

may have talked-the-talk of climate change action, have failed to take action leads one to

feel they are more interested in gamesmanship (Coorey 2010). Whatever the European

motivation for being a world leader on action it has drawn consensus from member states

and a general discourse around action, concern for the global situation and need for

action. How well Spain meets its obligations in a low growth economy is still to be seen.

Conclusions and further research

In the three countries, their focus on economic growth and complying with international

financial actions appears to have distracted them from respecting the support from their

citizens for climate change action. Especially Australia and Spain appear to have taken

citizen concerns for material well-being and for climate change action for granted, in

Australia to their own detriment. New Zealand, where elites are much closer and more

sensitive to the people, appears to have taken a more considered approach in their

discourse and action. A question associated that deserves more investigation is how

independently of vested interests are these three governments able to act? The Australian

case particularly points to this not being possible with the current main political parties.

In the three countries, with the development of postmaterialist and self expression values

and associated political actions, there is a sense that the governments in each case are not

keeping pace with the values changes that are occurring. Citizens in these three countries

are concerned enough about global climate change that they support their country taking

action. The governments say they agree, like Rudd’s ‘greatest moral challenge of our

age’, and have all committed to international agreements on the need to act. The problem

is that the discourse doesn’t match their actions and they continue with concessions to

24

industry, ‘softening’ of policy until others act, protecting competitiveness, and other

neoliberal economic excuses for lack of action that will prevent serious climate change.

Spain with its late, rapid industrialisation provides a good study for the progression of

postmaterial values and increasing self-expression values. With the country one of those

most affected by the GFC, they may be one that demonstrates the power of this value

change through new political actions. Those younger than 35 years have grown up

during the Spanish boom years, and it was this group who protested, demanding a change

in the political system in May this year. A protest coordinated through modern social

networking systems. Contrary to the idea that people are less interested in politics due to

falling voting turn outs, political parties would be advised to stay relevant to their

publics’ changing values priorities.

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