2084 union street san francisco, ca 94123 operational ... · paradigm - an emergent operational...

4/23/2010

The Ubiquitous Computing Paradigm - An Emergent

Operational EcologyUbiquitous Computing ForumJuly 2000

Charles OstmanSenior Fellow

Institute for Global Futures

2084 Union Street San Francisco, CA 94123tel 510 549 0129 email [email protected]

http://www.technofutures.com/charles1.htm

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Evolution Into the Next Millennium

� Technology Convergence� Economic Drivers� Belief Systems

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The human / ubiquitous computing symbiosis - Key Phenomena

� “Spawning” of infinitely scalable, distributed, process brokeraged resources, and their respective modes of communication.

� Adaptation to an integrated, operational ecology in which indices of value are established as process epicenters

� Process complexity, scale, and velocity are evolving toward a realtime, JIT process distribution architecture

� Epicenters of value are being extended into a seamless, contiguous fabric of bi-directional transactional processbrokeraging - if it isn’t connected, it isn’t real

Primary elementsof the emergent

operational ecology

Primary elementsPrimary elementsof the emergentof the emergent

operational operational ecologyecology

PersistentObjects

UbiquitousFabric

TransactionPortals

ProcessNodes

Smart Sensors EverywhereSmart Sensors Everywhere

>

e>

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Epicenters of Value

> Granualarized JIT Virtual Resource Distribution > Combinatorial Realtime Virtual Resource Assets > Computing “Fabrics” - Access and Brokeraging> Integrated Process Transaction Architectures

> Persistent Objects, Object Hierarchies > Access Convergence

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Ultimate Wearable: Net-Baby

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Process Transactions - Universal Trends

> Goods & Services Merging into Process Management> Process Management is Becoming “Process Deliverables”

> Hardware & Software are Converging into New Type of Asset > ASP’s are evolving into PSP’s - Process Service Providers

> Computing Fabrics are the Environmental Terrain > Persistent Objects are the Process Organelles

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The New Economy -Virtual Asset Technologies

� “Gel” Ware� Evolvable Systems � Virtual “Intelligent Entites”� Intelligent Agents and Agent Colonies� Synthetic Sentience as a Strategic Resource

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Virtual Humans - This is “Sylvie” � She can market products, be a secretary, a help aid � She can have any face, a programmable personality� She is a connection interface to a higher, scalable

intelligence

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“Virtual Human”Entity Interface

Smart Sensors Everywhere

Intelligent AgentHierarchies

Process Brokeraging

Architectures

Ubiquitous Access Portals

Digital ProcessConvergence

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Autonomous Agent Hierarchy -Collective Organism Entity

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“Synthetic Sentience” Threshold -Strategic Resource Allocation

� Affymetrix Genechip Example

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� People� Analysis � Research� Strategy

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The E-Commerce Ecology � Scalable Computing Fabrics� Transaction Media Appliances � Smart Cards

Digital Cash . . . Digital Cash . . . Define “Money”Define “Money”

Smart CardsSmart Cards

Digital WalletDigital Wallet

Ubiquitous Ubiquitous

Virtual CurrencyVirtual Currency

Grid AccessGrid Access

Smart Sensors EverywhereSmart Sensors Everywhere

>

e>

Digital ConvergenceDigital Convergence

Intuitive DevicesIntuitive Devices

Info AppliancesInfo Appliances

Ubiquitous Distributed Portals

Biometric RecognitionBiometric Recognition>

e>

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Example Technology - Agents and Agent Ecologies

� Information / Knowledge Processing Agents� Negotiation / Brokeraging Agents� Decision Rendering Agent Systems

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JIT Process Management Driven Knowledge Engineering

� Emergent Demographics Analysis � Strategy / Logistics Enhancement� Operational Process Dynamics� JIT Value Chain Optimization

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Example Technology -Distributed Intelligent Objects

� Process Brokerage� Distributed Intelligence Assets� Transactional Systems Architectures

4

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Example Technology - Scalable Computing Fabrics

� N-Dimensional Processing Element Networks� Contiguously Adaptable Architectures

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Example Technology -Reconfigurable Computing

� “Soft” Hardware > Gelware� Process Brokeraged Value Chain� Contiguously Adaptable System Architecture

4

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Current SCE Model -Evolution to Realtime SCE - ASP

� Embedded Intelligences� Integrated Lifestyle Management � Ubiquitous Interactive Process Environment

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Ubiquitous Fabric Example -Communications Architecture


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Hardware / Software Partitioning -Process Layer Discontinuity

� Evolutionary Computing� Artificial Life

4

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Hardware / Software PartitioningProcess Layer Continuity

� This is a model of a synthetic neuron

� This is an actual, self evolving synthetic neuralnet

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Cultural Imperatives

� Embedded Intelligences� Integrated Lifestyle Management � Ubiquitous Interactive Process Environment

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Operational Imperatives

� People� Analysis � Research� Strategy

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Major Economic Drivers� Tangible Assets > Virtual Assets� Technology Vectors > Complex Value Chains� Intellectual Property > Sovereign Knowledge

Domains� E-Commerce > Transactional Brokeraging

Architectures

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The Evolving Economic Model� Product / Service Delivery > Process Brokeraging� Currency Instruments > Ubiquitous E-Currency Grid

� Market Analysis > Demographics Topologies

21st Century Virtual Entity21st Century Virtual Entity

DeepDeepPersonalizationPersonalization

EE--CustomerCustomerServiceService

VirtualVirtualDistribution Distribution

DataDataMiningMining

OnOn--DemandDemandProductsProducts

KnowledgeKnowledgeManagementManagement

SSEERRVVIICCEESS

PPRROODDUUCCTTSS

DVDDVD

KioskKioskss

VRVR

TVTV

CableCable

VideoteVideotell

FiberFiberWearablesWearables

SatelliteSatellite

LANsLANsCall CentersCall Centers

CardsCards

CarsCars

Net/PCNet/PC

PCPCWirelessWireless

CUSTOMERSCUSTOMERS BusinessBusinessHomeHome

EE--BusinessBusinessEconomicsEconomics

Virtual Virtual Value ChainValue Chain

Virtual Private Nets

Virtual Private Nets

Approaching the Strategic Decision Boundary

� Directive for asset / resource allocation � Viable alternatives identification

� A: fixed commitment boundary � B: re-adaptability factor

� Cost / time / strategic potential function applied to each alternative� Prioritize alternatives � Decision threshold

Timeline for Inception

Cost

Stra

tegi

c P

oten

tial

BA

Interactive Interactive Multimedia /Multimedia /

TelepresenceTelepresenceGranualarizedGranualarized

Proces s Proces s ManagementManagement

Member / Group Member / Group Dynamics Dynamics Analysi sAnalysi s

ResourceResourceTransaction sTransaction s

Data /Data /Knowledge Knowledge

ContentContent

+CollaborativeCollaborativeNetworkingNetworking

Building / Enabling Building / Enabling Digital CommunitiesDigital Communities

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Process Brokeraging Valuation -Realtime IP Resource Boundaries

� Cross Purposing � Repositioning Potential� Granualarized Resource Allocation� Knowledge Access / Distribution� Definable Boundary Porosity� Sovereign Knowledge Domains� Scalable POT (Point of Transaction) Performance Metrics

EvaluateEvaluateImpactImpact

LaunchLaunchProducts/Products/ServicesServices

Create Create NetworkNetwork

GoalsGoals

The Integrated CollaborativeThe Integrated CollaborativeDigital Community Value Chain Digital Community Value Chain

FormulateFormulateProces sProces sStrategyStrategy

AnalyzeAnalyzeMemberMemberNeedsNeeds

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JIT Process Management Driven Strategic Decision Rendering

� Collaborative workspace value-chain models� Defined vs. Emergent Strategy Formulation� Information Flow > Process Flow� System behavior dynamics� Complexity Management - Bringing Clarity to Complexity� Task partitioning and modeling - aggregate

interdependencies

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Mission Critical Strategic Resources Mission Critical Strategic Resources

1. Knowledge Architectures1. Knowledge Architectures

2. Networked Intelligence2. Networked Intelligence

3. Systems Integration 3. Systems Integration

4. On4. On--Demand Resource Distribution Demand Resource Distribution

5. Scaleable Process Models5. Scaleable Process Models

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Knowledge Harvesting -Primary Resource Value Chain


Decision Rendering Process MapFUNCTIONAL MAP - Conceptual partitioning of functional domains

LOGICAL MAP -Functional partitions are separated into localized “process domains”

DEPLOYMENT MAP - Process domains are mapped onto distributed deployment sectors.

IT Resources & Infrastructure- Data / Knowledge Services- Process Integration - Workflow Management

Resource

Time

Knowledge

Market

Situational Layer

Logical Layer

Decision Layer

Logistics Correlation

Distributed Deployment

Key Power Key Power Shifts Shifts

Physical Virtual Physical Virtual Seller Seller BuyerBuyerMass Targeted Mass Targeted Human MachinesHuman Machines

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The Interconnection Paradigm

If It Isn’t Connected, It Doesn’t Exist

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Convergence Example -Evolutionary Computing

� Biological Algorithms� Scalable Computing Fabrics

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Autonomous Entity Communication Brokeraging


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Virtual Asset Commodity Driven Economic Ecology


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Synthetic Sentience Threshold -Strategic Resource


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Ubiquitous Distributed Adaptive Intelligence Resources


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Knowledge Harvesting -Primary Resource Value Chain


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Artificially Enhanced ComplexityManagement - Process Control


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Virtual Commodity AssetsAttributes and Considerations

� Process Deliverables� Access Portals & Computing Fabrics� Distributed Knowledge & Intelligence� Fiduciary Carrying Capacity of “VCA”

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Convergence Outcome� Brokeraging of VCA� Scalable Computing Fabrics� Realtime JIT Process Deliverables

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