2080

-0.5°C

0.0°C

2.0°C

1.5°C

1.0°C

0.5°C

3.0°C

2.5°C

2040200019601920188018401800

Observational Record

IPCC*Prediction

Little Ice Age

-0.5°C

0.0°C

0.5°C

___________________________*Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change

by

Poorna Pal, MS MBA PhD

Professor: Geology/Oceanography, International BusinessGlendale Community College

What probabilities, in time and space, can be assigned to any catastrophes that result and how economically feasible and practicable are various mitigating measures?

What is climate change and why does it matter?

What are the forcing mechanisms for this climate change, what are their possible consequences, and how exhaustive and robust are the supporting evidences?

2080

-0.5°C

0.0°C

2.0°C

1.5°C

1.0°C

0.5°C

3.0°C

2.5°C

2040200019601920188018401800

Observational Record

IPCC*Prediction

Little Ice Age

-0.5°C

0.0°C

0.5°C

___________________________*Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change

natural factors, such as changes in the sun's intensity or slow changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun;

natural processes within the climate system (e.g. changes in ocean circulation);

human activities that change the atmosphere's composition (e.g. through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g. deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.)

Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer).

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html

Thermosphere

MesosphereStratosphereTroposphere

300 km

50 km

40 km10 km

400 km altitude

Exosphere

is the Earth’s 110 km thick gaseous envelope, andevolved in three stages:

4-4.5 Ga agodominantly H, He (much like Jupiter, Saturn and Sun)

3.5 Ga ago changed to mostly C, N and O when the first oceans appeared

1.25 Ga agobecame mostly N and O, as at the present time, because of loss of C. Where did this atmospheric

CO2 go? It ended up in the oceans. How? Because of

photosynthesis.

Troposphere

extends to 16-18 km above the tropics but <10 km above the poles;

contains ~80% of atmosphere’s mass; and

runs the hydrological cycle because tropo-spheric temperatures decrease with height.

Stra

tosp

he

reS

trato

sph

ere

StratopauseStratopause

Me

so

sph

ere

Me

so

sph

ere

MesopauseMesopause

Th

ermo

-T

herm

o-

sp

he

res

ph

ere

TropopauseTropopause

TroposphereTroposphere

Average temperature, °C

Hei

gh

t, a

bo

ve m

ean

sea

lev

el (

km)

Average atmospheric temperature

What if the tropo-spheric temperature

gradient changes?

Why is ozone good overAntarctica but bad over Southern California?

There is a hole in the Ozone layer right above Antarctica

Differential heating:Tropics receive most solar heat.Differential gravity:Gravitational acceleration is most at the poles, least at the equator. Differential rotation:Equatorial surface wind blows to the west, against the direction of Earth’s spin.

A general model of tropospheric circulation3 forces govern this circulation:

Seasonal temperature variations can be explained in terms of the latitudinal and seasonal variations in the surface energy balance. The pattern of temperatures are a function of net short-wave radiation, net long-wave radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux and change in heat storage.

http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/

http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Climatologies/Precip_Loop.html

Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) represents the difference between precipitation and evaporation

http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/

Some implicationsAt 30°N/S latitudes, sea surface salinity tends to be high and deserts tend to cluster on land.When equatorial surface wind blows to the west, it also stacks the warm surface waters to the west, so producing the E—W temperature differential that produces the hurricanes and cyclones that strike eastern margins of tropical/semitropical land.

http://www.scivis.nps.navy.mil/~braccio/images/S_big.gif

Sea Surface Salinity

http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/deserts/what/world.html

Deserts tend to cluster about 30º North and South latitudes, towards the western margins of land.

Tropical cyclones develop in the hot, humid air over a sea surface exceeding 26°C in temperature.

Hurricanes typically occur on our Atlantic coast and originate

farther to the east, as can be seen in this animation of

Hurricane Katrina.

Global Surface TemperatureGlobal Surface Temperature

This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures. Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record. (Source: NASA/GISS) The gray error bars represent the uncertainty on measurements. This research is broadly consistent with similar constructions prepared by the Climatic Research Unit and the National Atmos-pheric and Oceanic Administration.

http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

http://www.cartoonistgroup.com/store/add.php?iid=16537

Grow apples in AlaskaDan Elliott harvests apples from his orchard on Thursday, October 9, 2008. Elliott grows over 100 varieties at his home off Fairview Loop.

Dan Elliott heads into his orchard to harvest apples on Thursday, October 9, 2008. Elliott grows over 100 varieties at his home off Fairview Loop.

Read more here: http://community.adn.com/node/133499#storylink=cpy

Grow bananas in Kansas!!!Those there are dwarf musa cavendish, and red tiger sikki. in the back which we can't see are red murelli ensete. Well if you ever come this way,let me know your still welcome to a banana, I give several away every fall, when I dig them up for winter.

Posted by dbrya1 Z6KS (dbryan1@cox.net) on Sun, Sep 2, 07 at 0:31http://forums.gardenweb.com/forums/load/banana/msg0821134611632.html?11

http://www.geology.um.maine.edu/ges121/lectures/11-little-ice-age/little-ice-age.html

1100 1900170015001300

warm

cold

Little Ice Age

Ghorama is an island located in West Bengal, India, that is eroding into the ocean due to a dramatic increase in the sea level. The photographer posed locals on disappearing segments of the island. According to the artist, locals who still live on the larger segment of the island expect to be relocated within the next 25 years. (Photo: Daesung Lee/Sipa Press)

http://news.yahoo.com/photos/snapshots-1320966603-slideshow/snapshots111312-photo-1326482674.html

http://climate.nasa.gov/SeaLevelViewer/seaLevelViewer.cfm

http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions. The chart on the left shows the CO2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere during the last three glacial cycles, as reconstructed from ice cores. The chart on the right shows CO2 levels in recent years, corrected for average seasonal cycles.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-holguin-veras-tsunami-20120311,0,1967271.story

http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

The time series at right shows global distribution and variation of the concentration of mid-tropospheric carbon dioxide in parts per million (ppmv) at an altitude range of 3-13 kilometers (1.9 to 8 miles).

Therefore, distance from Sun is not the reason why Earth has abundance of water and Venus and Mars lack water.

Solar heat received at the surface of Venus is about the same as that received on the Earth’s surface and on the surface of Mars.

Venus

Earth

Mars

0.72 AU

1.00 AU

1.52 AU

~2500 W/m2

~1360 W/m2

~ 600 W/m2

~650 W/m2

~680 W/m2

~600 W/m2

323°K

276°K

215°K

730°K

281°K

215°K

Solar heat received...

... at the planetary location

... at the planetary

surface

Expected surface tempe-rature

Observed surface tempe-rature

Relative distance from Sun

The 20th century data reflect this, with correlated rises, since

1900, of 0.6ºC in mean global temperatures and ~10 cm in the mean sea level worldwide; and

increased precipitation at higher latitudes, in the Northern hemisphere, and relative aridity at the lower latitudes, compared to

greater precipitation throughout the Southern hemisphere, but for ~20ºS.

0

8

-8

Mean

Se

a level relative

to 1

951-70 (cm)M

ean

glo

bal

te

mp

erat

ure

s re

lati

ve

to 1

951-

80 (

ºC)

Sources: (a) For temperature data: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs

(b) For sea level data: T.P. Barnett, in CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC Working Group Report: Cambridge University Press, 1990)

Land as the % of Earth’s surface area per 1º

latitude band

40oS

0o

40oN

0

- 10% 10%0%

Precipitation Change (1900-94)

10.5

Recomputed from the data in Thomas Karl, Neville Nicholls & Jonathan Gregory: The Coming Climate, Scientific American, May 1997

Oceans modulate the climate, irrespective of whether global warming is anthopogenic or not.

A recent analysis of Earth’s heat balance* goes a step further, by quantitatively demonstrating that, during the latter half of the 20th century, changes in the ocean heat content have dominated the changes in Earth’s heatbalance.

Much of this heat appears tohave gone particularly into thewarming of Atlantic waters.

* S. Levitus, J.I. Antonov, J. Wang, T.L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon & A.J. Broccoli: Anthropogenic warming of Earth’s climatic system. Science, 292: 267-270 (2001).

0

50

100

150

200

Hea

t C

on

ten

t In

crea

se

(in

102

1 Jo

ule

s)

World Ocean (1.82x1023 J)

Glo

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Atm

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.6x1

021

J)

Sea

-Ice

Mel

t (3

.2x1

021

J)

Gla

cial

Mel

t (9

.2x1

021 J)

Surface

3 Km depth

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOA98F/woaf_cd/search.html

The resulting change is likely to be abrupt*, based on the evidence from Greenland and Antarctic ice

cores, that the warming that began in the Younger Dryas started with the present Conveyor Belt and was aaccomplished rapidly; which

raises the alarming possibility that Europe may suddenly revert to its Mini Ice Age (c. 1300-1900) in a matter of decades.

Data Sources: Alley et al., Nature, 362: 527-529 (1993); Grootes et al., Nature, 336: 552-554 (1993); Blunier et al., Nature, 394: 739-743 (1998).

Yo

un

ger D

ryas

* P.U. Clark, N.G. Pisias, T.F. Stocker & A.J. Weaver: The role of the thermohaline circu-lation in abrupt climate change. Nature, 415: 863-869 (2002).

Temperature change expected by 2,050 AD should the present warming trend continueSource: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp

Precipitation Projection for North America, 2100http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/downloads/Climate_Basics.pdf

Precipitation changes averaged over 21 climate models between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099. As storm tracks shift north, precipitation tends to increase in the middle and northern latitudes but decrease in the southern latitudes in North America. Yellow shades indicate decreases in precipitation and green shades indicate increases in precipitation. Darker shades indicate larger increases or decreases. Source: IPCC, 2007

What probabilities, in time and space, can be assigned to any catastrophes that result and how economically feasible and practicable are various mitigating measures?

Two problems arise here:

1.Unpredictability of disasters2.Economic impracticability

0.1

1

10

0.01

1 10 100 1,000 10,000

FloodsFloods

Hurricanes

EarthquakesEarthquakes

Nu

mb

er o

f ev

ents

per

yea

r N

um

ber

of

even

ts p

er y

ear

Tornadoes

The U.S. 20th Century The U.S. 20th Century Natural Disaster Fatality-Natural Disaster Fatality-

Frequency PlotsFrequency Plots

It’s the Economy, Stupid

Climate Change Acceptance Sinks During Economic SlumpsArs Technica | March 20, 2012 |  11:00 am |  Categories: EnvironmentBy John Timmer, Ars Technica

A few years back, the US public’s acceptance of conclusions reached by climate scientists took a dramatic drop. It’s only now beginning to recover. Not a lot has changed about the science during that time, raising questions about what’s driving the ups and downs in the polls. Studies have found correlations with the weather and a role for political leaders in driving these changes, but a new study suggests some of that is misplaced. Instead, its authors come to a conclusion we’ve heard before: it’s the economy, stupid.

FranceFranceU.K.U.K.

ChinaChina

SwedenSweden

RussiaRussia

USAUSA

BrazilBrazilItalyItaly

SingaporeSingapore

0.10.1

11

1010

100100

0.010.01 0.10.1 11 1010

MexicoMexico

GermanyGermanyIndiaIndia JapanJapan

NorwayNorwaySwtizerlandSwtizerland

Saudi ArabiaSaudi ArabiaNetherlandsNetherlands

AustraliaAustraliaSpainSpain

GDP (PPP) in trillion US $ (Y)GDP (PPP) in trillion US $ (Y)

Economic prosperity and energy Economic prosperity and energy consumption are closely correlatedconsumption are closely correlated

En

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(ter

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(ter

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100 1,000 10,000

GDP (PPP) in billion international $

100

1,00

0

En

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on

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mp

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n to

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)

The same direct dependence of economy on energy consumption is also what the time series data from China and India show.

0.030.03

0.10.1

11

33

0.10.1 11 1010

0.30.3

330.30.30.030.03

USAUSA

ChinaChina

JapanJapan

RussiaRussia

GermanyGermanyIndiaIndia

U.K.U.K.

UkraineUkrainePolandPoland CanadaCanada

ItalyItaly

FranceFrance

IranIran

BrazilBrazil

MexicoMexicoSouthSouthKoreaKorea

AustraliaAustralia

SouthSouthAfricaAfricaNorthNorth

KoreaKorea

KazakstanKazakstan

...and so are economic prosperity and carbon emissions

GDP (PPP) in trillion US $

• Clearly, then, China, India and the other BRICS countries that hold the key to the world’s continued economic welfare are also likely to be the most significant sources of future carbon emissions.

• The fact that global economic growth is anemic elsewhere, in North America and Europe, therefore makes it unlikely for environmental idealism to not have to take a back seat to economic realism.

Thank You!