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205220522052 -A Global Forecast

2052 -A Global Forecast

for the Next Forty Yearsfor the Next Forty YearsJ R dJorgen Randers

ProfessorCenter for Climate Strategygy

Norwegian Business School BI

Pioneers of Energy Transition ConferenceNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

J Randers 1J Randers 1

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

Pioneers of Energy Transition - Conference Vienna, Austria

October 10th, 2012

12 scenarios for the 21st century


J Randers 2

Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis

3: Industrial output

1 12 35

5: Nonrenewable resources

2: Food

4

5

2: Foodoutput

1

1

2

22

34

5

1: Population

1900 1950 2000 2050 21000

23 3

44 4

5

Year

4: Pollution level


J Randers 3

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability55

55: Nonrenewable resources

1 233

3: Industrial output

1

1

25

52: Food

4

52: Foodoutput

1

1 2 341: Population

4: Pollution level

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year0

23

44

4


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Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

900 950 000 050 00ea

Limits to Growth: A small and fragile world


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Source: KPMG, 2010

Overshoot: Emissions is twice absorption


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Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009

For all numerical dataand the forecast model,

consultconsultthe book websitewww.2052.info

The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population GDP GDP per person2010

(billion

2010

(trillion

2010

(1000people) $ pr year) $ pr person-year)

US 0,3 13 41China 1 3 10 7China 1,3 10 7OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ( )ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


J Randers 8

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

World population will peak in 2040% / yrGpersons

5,010

Population( l )

% / yrGpersons

4,08 (←scale)

3,06

2,04 Birth rate(scale →)

1,02Death rate

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1

Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

0,001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


J Randers 9


10,000$ / person-yrG$ / yr Gp

World GDP growth will slow down6,0150 6.0

4,8120

W ld GDP

Populationaged 15 to 65(scale → →)

4.8

3,690 World GDP(←scale)

( )3.6

2,460

Gross laborproductivity

2.4

1,230 productivity(scale →)

g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a

1.2

0,001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

g p

0.0

Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity


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p g y p p y

Share of GDP in investment will growG$ / yr%

15040

World GDP( l )

G$ / yr%

12032 (scale →)

Investmentshare in GDP

9024 (←scale)

Consumption6016

Consumption(scale →)

308


Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050

001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


J Randers 11


Energy use will peak in 2040G$

30020

World

toe / M$Gtoe / yrG$/ yr

300

24016energy use(←scale)

Energy intensity= Energy use

240

18012= Energy useper unit of GDP(scale →)

180

1208

World GDP(scale →→)

120

604(scale )

60


Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6


J Randers 12


Fossil fuels will prevailGtoe / yr6,5

y

5,2 Coal use

3,9 Oil use

2,6

Gas use

1,3

N l

Renewable energy use

Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052

0,01970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Nuclear useg120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8


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Figure 5 2: Energy Uses World 1970 to 2052


World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030tCO2 / toeGtCO2 / yr Gtoe/yr

550

CO2 emissions

tCO2 / toeGtCO2 / yr Gtoe/yr25

440 (←scale)Climate intensity= CO2 per unitof energy( l )

20

330 (scale →) 15

220

Energy use(scale →→)

10

110(scale →→)

5


Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050

001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0g p


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Figure 5 3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 1970 to 2050.


Temperature and sea-level will risedeg Cppm m

2,5500deg Cppm m

1.5

2,0400 CO2 in atmosphere(←scale) Temperature rise

(scale →)

1.2

1,5300(scale )

0.9

1,0200Sea level rise(scale →→)

0.6

0,5100 0.3


Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050

0,001970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0g p


J Randers 15

g g


Average disposable income – 1970 to 2050

40.000

(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)

WORLD

30.000

35.000 BRISE

China

25.000

China

OECDless US

15.000

20.000 USA

RoW Residual

5.000

10.000

Residual

01970 1990 2010 2030 2050


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Democratic decision making takes time


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COP 15 meeting in December 2009

What should be done? – Globally1 Sl l ti th H f1. Slow population growth: Have fewer

children, particularly in the rich world

2. Reduce the footprint: Eliminate fossil fuels first in the rich worldfuels, first in the rich world

3. Help the poor: Build a climate-friendly3. Help the poor: Build a climate friendly energy system in the poor world

4. Temper short-termism: Establish supra-national institutions

5. Establish new goals: Increase societal wellbeing in a world without growthNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

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wellbeing in a world without growth

What should be done? – Pioneer regions

1. Be in favour of small families and optimal degree of centralisation

2. Increase energy efficiency (GDP/energy) and fraction renewable energy (GDP/CO2)

3. Focus on climate-friendly transport, housing and air travel – individually or collectively

4. Remember this is primarily a political challenge: To make voters support wise policy even if expensive in the short termNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

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I don’t like what I see!


J Randers 20

[email protected] www.2052.info

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