2022-15 workshop on theoretical ecology and global...
TRANSCRIPT
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2022-15
Workshop on Theoretical Ecology and Global Change
Andrew Dobson
2 - 18 March 2009
Princeton UniversityUSA
Food Web Collapse and the decline of ecosystem services
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Food web collapse and the decline of ecosystem services
Andy Dobson
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Principal collaborators
• David Wilcove• Will Turner• Walter Jetz• Jon-Paul Rodriguez• Mark Roberts• MA Scenarios Team
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Brief Outline
• Population Viability Analysis• Future threats to birds• Identifying sites to protect• Ecosystem Services & habitat loss• Dynamics of habitat loss• Trophic collapse and ecosystem services
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Global Nature Reserves
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Do these parks protect biodiversity?
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PVA’s for Yellowstone Grizzly’s
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Annu
al ra
te o
f inc
reas
e,
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
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PVA for Yellowstone grizzly bears
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Annu
al ra
te o
f inc
reas
e,
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Probability of extinction in next 25 years > 1.0
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Observed females with cubs
Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Num
bers
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year vs Females Year vs COY
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Resources for grizzliesSpring Trout Abundance
Year
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Num
bers
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Clear Creek Trout Run
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Future PVA : Detailed stochastic demographic model..with “peer-reviewed” data ?
Or : More phenomological bear / habitat / resource model ?
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What determines where we put new nature reserves?
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Criteria for establishing and expanding reserve systems
• Spatial distribution of species that need to be conserved
• Cost and availability of land• Present and future threats• Selection algorithms focus on different criteria –
can we develop ones that ‘optimize’ across present and future threats?
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Geographical distributionof Endangered species in the US
Mammals
Birds
Fish
Molluscs
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What is minimal area required to protect at least one population of all currently listed
US Endangered Species?
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Florida scrub jay
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Geography
Ancient Sand Dune• Deposited >1 mya ago• now 100-300 feet above
sea level Lake Wales Ridge
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Threat
© R. Bowman
©ABS
1,380 km2
habitat
178 km2
habitat
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Species
©S
. Tel
ford
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Quantifying future threats: The MA Scenarios
• Use a range of climate and human population growth projections to examine possible futures
• Climate change is based on the IGPCC projections
• Human population based on a range of economic projections that assume different responses to environment
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Future land-use and climate change andextinction risk in birds
Walter JetzBiological Sciences
University of California San Diego
David S. WilcoveAndy P. Dobson
Ecology, Evolutionary BiologyPrinceton Univeristy
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Observed change in annual mean temperature
Observed climate change
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The impact on species?
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The impact on species?
(following Thomas et al., Nature 2004)
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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
– Not predictions – scenarios are plausible futures
– Both quantitative models and qualitative analysis used in scenario development
4 Scenarios about the future of the world
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Changes in indirect drivers
• In MA Scenarios:– Population projected
to grow to 8–10 billion in 2050
– Per capita income projected to increase two- to fourfold
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Changes in indirect drivers
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Crop Land Forest Area
Changes in direct drivers
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Adapting Mosaic 2100
Landuse ChangeClimate Change
Model: Image 2.2 (Strengers et al 2005)
Climate and Land-use Change: The Global Patttern
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Order from Strength, 2100
Landuse ChangeClimate Change
Model: Image 2.2 (Strengers et al 2005)
Climate and Land-use Change: The Global Patttern
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?
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A global distribution database
• Distribution ranges of all 9,754 species, geo-registered to known projection
• Following analysis: • polygon ranges resampled to 0.5° grid (259,200 quadrats)• 11,418,435 quadrat records• Excluded 838 freshwater, marine and pelagic species• Breeding ranges only
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The geographic patternAll Aves
Families with over 50% pelagic or freshwater species excluded1-523 species per 5km pixel
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From extent of occurrence to estimate of area of occupancy …
Chestnut Wattle-eye (Platysteira castanea)
Habitat: Humid Forest
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Global Land Cover Classification (IGBP)
(1 km2 resolution)
From extent of occurrence to estimate of area of occupancy …
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Cells with forest
From extent of occurrence to estimate of area of occupancy …
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From extent of occurrence to estimate of area of occupancy …
0.5° quadrats of range that contain forest
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TG Scenariopresent to 2050
From estimate of area of occupancy to estimate of area lost …
Predicted Land Transformations
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IPCC Year
2050 4.7 1.6 ° 11% 8%2100 1.9° 15% 10%
2050 13 1.9° 11% 7%2100 3.0° 16% 9%
2050 20 2.1° 11% 9%2100 3.4° 17% 13%
2050 15 1.8° 10% 10%2100 3.2° 14% 14%
Clim. Hab.TCO2
Order from Strength
TechnoGarden
Adapting Mosaic
A2
B1
B2
LandCoverClimate
Global Orchestration A1
Environmental Change: The Pattern
Madonna’s World
Marley’s World
MaNonna’s World
Maradona’s World
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Predicted Proportional Loss in Range SizeAll the World’s Land Birds
Adapting Mosaic 2100
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Spe
cies
Percent Range Transformed
0
400
800
1200
Jetz, Wilcove & Dobson(2007)
AgricultureClimate ChangeLand-use change
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Predicted Proportional Loss in Range Size
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Spe
cies
Percent Range Transformed
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Geographic range size
0
400
800
1200
Adapting Mosaic 2100
AgricultureClimate ChangeLand-use change
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Predicted Proportional Loss in Range SizeAdapting Mosaic
Global Orchestration Order from Strength
TechnoGarden
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Spe
cies
Percent Range Transformed
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Geographic range size
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
0
400
800
1200
0
400
800
1200
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IPCC Year
2050 448 43%2100 988 45%
2050 398 39%2100 952 48%
2050 540 70%2100 1,767 72%
2050 906 79%2100 1,804 84%
Range lost to Hab.
Order from Strength
TechnoGarden
Adapting Mosaic
A2
B1
B2
50% Range Lost
Species
Global Orchestration A1
Environmental Change: The Impact on Biodiversity I
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Latitude, Range Size and Type of Change
Red: Land-use changeBlue: Climate Change
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Latitude and Proportional Range Loss
Red: Land-use changeBlue: Climate Change
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Latitude and Proportional Range Loss
Red: Land-use changeBlue: Climate Change
Bird Species Diversity
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Adapting mosaic
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Adapting Mosaic, 2100
The geographic pattern
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Order from Strength, 2100
The geographic pattern
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• Assumption “total loss”. To which degree may species survive / adapt to changed habitats?
• Assumption “range stationarity”. To which degree may species be able to shift their ranges in response to climate change?
• Assumption “minimum area requirement > ½ 0.5°quadrat”. To which degree will species be still represented and thus covered by sub-pixel habitat availability?
• Assumption “area of occupancy”: To which degree is the area of occupancy overestimated, i.e. proportional range loss underestimated?
• How well does the current reserve system buffer species from projected land use changes, but not from effects of climate change?
Additional Questions
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Conclusions• Land-use change will dominate range contractions, particularly in
the tropics, while climate change will dominate in higher latitudes
• The species that are most vulnerable to these changes are only poorly identified by the current threat categorizations.
• The causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential rangeloss vary across socioeconomic scenarios
• While climate change will severely impact biodiversity, in the near future land-use change is is likely to lead to greater species loss.
• Habitat preservation should be a main priority of decision-makers and conservation practitioners
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Green, Cornell, Scharlemann & Balmford, Science, 28 January 2005
Developed
Developing
CR
OP
LAN
D
PA
STU
RE
CR
OP
YIE
LD
ME
AT
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N
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Green, Cornell, Scharlemann & Balmford, Science, 28 January 2005
Developed – OpenDeveloping - Filled
GlobalRed ListFor Birds
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Assessing the Condition and Multi-scale Impacts of
Cultivated SystemsStanley Wood1, Ken Cassman2 & Joanne Gaskell11International Food Policy Research Institute2Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska
2005 AAAS Annual Meeting17-21 February 2005Washington, DC.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: New Approaches to Multi-Scale Analyses
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
World Asia
Bill
ion
Hec
tare
s1961 c2004 c2004 cTotal L
1961 cropland (1961 yields)2004 cropland (2004 yields)2004 cropland (1961 yields)Total Land Suitable for Cultivation
Land “Spared” By Intensification (1961-2004)(Cereals, Roots/Tubers, Oils, Pulses, Sugar, Fiber Crops)
1.4BHa(126%)
0.9BHa(178%)
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Ecosystem services
• Services supplied by natural ecosystems to the human economy.
• How do we classify these?– MA Classification – resilient or brittle?– Or – a more biological/mechanistic classification
• Can we predict how they will collapse?– How do we map services onto biological diversity?
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Classifying Ecosystem Services• Provisioning,
– include food, such as fish, game-meat, fruit and berries from wild trees, fire wood, and fresh water. Have to be harvested!
• Regulating, – ultimately make life possible for humans and other non-voting
species.– include climate and air quality control, detoxification, storm
protection and regulation of disease and pest outbreaks. • Supporting,
– include primary production and the oxygen it generates, pollination of wild and domestic plants, soil formation and nutrient cycling.
• Cultural – includes recreation and ecotourism – create revenue and jobs
• Preserving – provide unknown future benefits to humans: new drugs and
foods
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Do Ecosystem Services map onto Trophic level?
• Top trophic levels – aesthetic goods and services, some food – marine fish– Brittle, quickly lost as habitat lost
• Plants – oxygen production and CO2removal, fibers, forestry- More resilient, vary linearly with area?
• Basal trophic levels – soil retention, nutrient cycling, removal of toxins– Most resilient, persist in modified habitat?
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Eco
syst
em F
unct
ion
Biodiversity (Number of species x abundance)
(a)
(b)(c)
(e)
(a) -> (e) decreasing resilience
(d)
Possible functional forms(Salas et al in Mooney, 1996)
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Resilience of ecosystem services
Purification of air
Purification of water
Carbon sink
Water source
Local harvest of food
Pollination of local agriculture
Buffering invasive species and pathogens
Recreational and spiritual value
Ecosystem service ‘Resilience’ function
a
a/b
a
b/d
b/c
b/c
c/d
c/d
Strong tendency to move up trophic level, down resilience scale.
Less resilient, more brittle ->>
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Curve that fits change in function with biodiversity lossAndy's a through e a indicates low sensitivity of ecosystem service to biodiv loss0 indicates irrelevant
Ecosystem typeEcosystem service Cultivated Drylands Forests anUrban syst Inland wateCoastal Marine Polar Mountain IslandProvisioningfood ebiochem and pharm c?genetic cfuel afibre aornamental efresh water aminerals, sand 0Regulatingair quality aclimate regulation awater regulation aerosion control awater purification and waste treatment bregulation of human diseases cbiological control ddetoxification cstorm protection cCultural ccultural diversity and identityspiritual and religiousknowledge systemseducational valuesinspirationaesthetic valuessocial relationssense of placecultural heritagerecreation and ecotourismSupportingprimary production aO2 production apollination invasives issuesoil formation asoil retention anutrient cycling cprovision of habitat c
Ecosystem type
Ecos
yste
m f
unct
ion
Classify as a -> ea = most resiliente = least resilient
Services performed bySpecies low in trophic level tend to be ‘a’, etc
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Table 1Ecosystem type
Ecosystem service Urban systCultivated Drylands Forests anCoastal Inland wateIsland Mountain Polar MarineProvisioningFresh Water a e a a 0 c a a a 0Fiber a a a a a e a a e aFuel wood a e a a e 0 a a e eFood a a a e a e a a e eGenetic resources 0 e c c e c c c c cBiochem and pharmaceuticals 0 a c c e c c c e eOrnamental Resources 0 a e e e e e e c eRegulatingAir quality b a a a a a a a a aClimate regulation c a a a a a a a a aErosion control c a a a e e a a a 0Storm protection a a a c e c a a a 0Water purification and waste treatment c a b b e a c c a aRegulation of human diseases e e b c ? d c c a aDetoxification c a c c e a c c e aBiological control d e d d e e c c a eCulturalcultural diversity and identity c a d d c e e e c crecreation and ecotourism d a d d c e e e c cSupportingPrimary production a a a a a a a a a aO2 production a a a a a a a a a aSoil formation & retention a a a a e a a a a 0Pollination c e c c a 0 c c e 0Nutrient cycling c e c c c a c c e aProvision of habitat d e c c e d c c a e
Ecosystem typeEcosystem service
Anthropogenic Terrestrial……….-> Aquatic, Marine
“What did you do in the M.A. Dad?
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Mean Value of Ecosystem Servicesby Trophic Level
(data from Costanza et al)
Mean Value ($/ha)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Trop
hic
leve
l
0
1
2
3
4
5
WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF EACH TROPHIC LEVEL?
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Value of Ecosystem Services x Trophic Level(data from Costanza et al)
Proportional Economic Value (Min : Mean : Max)
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Trop
hic
Leve
l
0
1
2
3
4
5
PROPORTIONAL VALUE OF ECONOMIC SERVICES BY TROPHIC LEVEL
NOTE : This may mean that ALL species are of equal economic value!
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The edge of the Serengeti……
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Val
ue o
f Eco
syst
em S
ervi
ces
Val
ue o
f Ser
vice
s in
Mod
ified
Hab
itat
0% Proportion of habitat converted 100%
Decline in value of ecosystem services as land is converted from pristine to human-modified
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Val
ue o
f Eco
syst
em S
ervi
ces
Val
ue o
f Ser
vice
s in
Mod
ified
Hab
itat
0% Proportion of habitat converted 100%
Land conversion creates a different, new source of revenue
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0% Proportion of habitat converted 100%
Net value at any time is sum of ecosystem servicesand services provided by converted land
Val
ue o
f Eco
syst
em S
ervi
ces
Val
ue o
f Ser
vice
s in
Mod
ified
Hab
itat
Net value in mixed habitat
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0% Proportion of habitat converted 100%
Val
ue o
f Eco
syst
em S
ervi
ces
Val
ue o
f Ser
vice
s in
Mod
ified
Hab
itat
ThresholdNo detectable
If Value ES >> Value S in MH
But the world may be asymmetrical…
Conversion alwaysReduces economic
value
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0% Proportion of habitat converted 100%
Val
ue o
f Eco
syst
em S
ervi
ces
Val
ue o
f Ser
vice
s in
Mod
ified
Hab
itatIf Value ES << Value S in MH
LowerThreshold
Or we may underestimate the value of ecosystem services
Conversionalways increaseseconomic value
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-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
primary producers
secondary consumers
primary consumers
tertiary consumers
A
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
quaternary consumers
B
Spe
cies
loss
(%) p
ost-a
cidi
ficat
ion
Annual species loss (as % of pre-acidification species number) in response to gradual experimental acidification in two north temperate lakes. A) Four lower trophic levels in Little Rock Lake, WI, USA: primary producers (initial N = 51 phytoplankton species); primary consumers (initial N = 36 primarily herbivorous zooplankton species); secondary consumers (initial N = 9 omnivorous zooplankton species); and tertiary consumers (initial N = 9 primarily carnivorous zooplankton species); and B) quaternary consumers in Lake 223, Ontario, Canada: (initial N = 7 fish species). For A), initial pH = 5.59, final pH = 4.75; for B) initial pH = 6.49, final pH = 5.13.
Increasing acidification ----
Little Rock Lake Food Web – Trophic change through time
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0 1p
Eco
syst
em s
ervi
ce
50% of maximum rate
Proportion of species pool that persists
How could we quantify the relationship between species diversity
and the supply of ecosystem services?
Note for Nerds – Essentially a Michaelis-Menton function or Type II Functional Response
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Proportion of species pool that persists
0 1p
Eco
syst
em s
ervi
ce
50% of maximum rate
p2
More Brittle
More Resilient
Shape of the relationship should change as we move between ‘more resilient’ and ‘more brittle’ services
Which suggests the slopes might change for species on different trophic levels
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Dependence on ‘pristine’ habitat
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Assume ES = MS
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80
0.5
1Services provided by total habi
Proportion converted
0.952
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80
0.5
1Services provided by total habi
Proportion converted
0.952
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi
• High (90%) <- Dependence -> Low (10%)
Type II threshold at 10% conversion
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Assume ES = MS
• High (90%) <- Dependence -> Low (10%)
Type III threshold at 10% conversion
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80
0.5
1Services provided by total ha
Proportion converted
0.999
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80
0.5
1Services provided by total ha
Proportion converted
0.999
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi
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Assume ES = MS
• High (90%) <- Dependence -> Low (10%)
Type II threshold at 80% conversion
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80
0.5
1Services provided by total ha
Proportion converted
0.992
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
0
0.5
1Services provided by total ha
Proportion converted
0.992
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi
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Assume ES = MS
• High (90%) <- Dependence -> Low (10%)
Type III threshold at 90% conversion
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80
0.5
1Services provided by total h
Proportion converted
1
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.80
0.5
1Services provided by total h
Proportion converted
1
0
Ni
Pi
Ci
10.01 pi
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weak dependence strong dependence
Lower trophiclevels
Upper trophiclevels
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"Trophic Pyramid"
3/4 ratio
p=ES50
Trophic diversity and ecosystem function
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Trophic diversity and ecosystem function
"Trophic Pyramid"
p=ES50
-------> Total Species Diversity
Total species diversity --------
Re-arrange as a ‘interval’ community ordered by trophic position
(sensu Joel Cohen’s ‘Cascade Model’ and Martinez & Williams ‘Niche Model’)
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Trophic diversity and ecosystem function
"Trophic Pyramid"
p=ES50
-------> Total Species Diversity
Eco
syst
em s
ervi
ce
Most Resilient
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Trophic diversity and ecosystem function
"Trophic Pyramid" -------> Total Species Diversity
Eco
syst
em s
ervi
ce
Most Resilient
More Brittle
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Proportion of maximum ecosystem service supplied as net
biodiversity declines
.11
1
pST
S = number of species left in community
T= 50% Efficiency Threshold
Tau = trophic level
Assume thresholds occur at N+0.1Stau : N is number spp at lower tau
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Species Composition
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Effic
ienc
y
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
DecomposersPlantsHerbivoresPredators
Loss of service x trophic level
Then use species-area curves to convert this to loss of service as area eroded
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Species x Area x Trophic Level
Area (proportion)
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Spec
ies
(pro
port
ion)
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
All SpeciesDecomposersPlantsHerbivores Predators
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Global Change
'Pristine Habitat'
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Global Change
'Pristine Habitat' 'Agriculture'
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Global Change
'Pristine Habitat' 'Agriculture' Degraded Land
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Global Change
'Pristine Habitat' 'Agriculture' Degraded Land
Urban Areas
Humanpopulation
Human population
Humanpopulation
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Natural history of measles infection
SusceptibleBirths
Birth rate
Infected Recovered
Vaccination
Essentially a similar processto land use change!! ?
----------------------- Reserve Establishment ->
Pristine Agriculture Abandoned
-----------------Succesion/---------->Restoration
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Basic land use change modeldF sU dPFdt
dA dPF bU aAdt
( )dU aA b s Udt
dP A hPrPdt A
0*
1
ah sFd s b
Pah
s b
* ah sFd s b
**
( )aAUs b
* *A hP
Forest
Agriculture
‘Degraded’
Human Population
Settles monotonically to equilibrium
Simple logistic as a functionof land currently under agriculture
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Land use change in the Phillipines and Pacific coast US
Forest
Urban
Agricultural
Abandoned / degraded
Forest
Agricultural
‘Recovering’
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Land use change in New England and the Lake States (OK – the Mid-West!)
Agriculture
Forest
Agriculture
Forest
Abandoned
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Equilibrium proportions of different habitatuse under different mean persistence times
Pristine habitat
AgriculturallandSpeed of
succession
10
20
100
50
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Global trends in land-use changeGreen, Cornell, Scharlemann & Balmford, Science, 28 January 2005
Developed
Developing
CR
OP
LAN
D
PA
STU
RE
CR
OP
YIE
LD
ME
AT
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N
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Global Change
'Pristine Habitat' 'Agriculture' Degraded Land
Urban AreasWater
Humans Humans
Humans
What happens if agricultural productivityis dependent upon forested habitat?
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Ranomafana NP,Madagascar
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Global Change
'Pristine Habitat' 'Agriculture' Degraded Land
Urban AreasWater Food
Humans Humans
Humans
So what happens if we include Ecosystem Services in our land use change model?
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Modified land use change model
dF sU dPFdt
dA dPF bU aAdt
( )dU aA b s Udt
dP A hPrPdt A
0*
1
ah sFd s b
Pah
s b* ah sFd s b
**
( )aAUs b
* *A hP
Forest
Agriculture
‘Degraded’
Human Population
Settles monotonically to equilibrium
Type 2 Functional ResponseA~> AF/(F+F50)
50(1 )F
AF hPdP FrPdt AF
* * 50*1
FA hP
F1/ 2* 21 1
1 1 1 502 2 4F c c c F1 ( )
sahcd b s
* ** 0
*50
( )F F FPa b sh F F
b s
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Land-use change with agricultural dependence on water
Proportion of land forested
Agr
icul
tura
l pro
duct
ivity
0 1.0
50% max
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Type I Dependence
Ecosystem service dependence, F50
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Prop
ortio
n of
Hab
itat
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Forest w/o dependenceAgricultureForest w dependence
Equilibrium landscape proportions
Type II Functional response
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Land-use change with agricultural dependence on water
50% max
Proportion of land forested
Agr
icul
tura
l pro
duct
ivity
0 1.0
Type III Functional Response --- Multiple Stable States,
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Type II Dependence
Ecosystem service dependence, F50
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Prop
ortio
n of
hab
itat
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Forest w/o dependenceAgricultureForest w dependence
Equilibrium landscape proportions
But Type III Functional response :So may collapse suddenly!
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Human Population Density
Ecosystem service dependence, F50
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Hum
an p
opul
atio
n de
nsity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Type IType II
Equilibrium human population
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Area x Trophic and Species Diversity
Area (proportional)
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Trop
hic
& S
peci
es D
iver
sity
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Species (proportion)Mean Trophic LevelFood Chain Length
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Lago Guri Island Data (Terborgh et al )Total Species = 59.7799+0.0427*x
Plants = 30.2564+0.0087*x1ry Consumers = 2.3606+0.0075*x2ry Consumers = 1.8723+0.0034*x
0.5 5.0 50.0 500.0
Area
0.25
0.50
0.75
2.50
5.00
7.50
25.00
50.00
75.00
250.00
Num
ber o
f Spe
cies
Trophic diversity on Islands in Lago Guri, Venezuela, the graph illustrates trophic diversity on islands of different sizes in a recently flooded lake in Venezuela. The study provides the classical example of ecological meltdown when the loss of top predators leads first to an increase in the abundance of herbivores, before these in turn are lost leaving only plants on the smallest islands. John Terborgh’s study in Venezuela
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Mean trophic level
Variance of trophic level - >trophic diversity
Mean – 95%c.l.
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Conclusions• Understanding the structure and dynamics of food webs
is THE scientific challenge of the 21st Century.
• Understanding how Ecosystem Services map onto food-web structure and dynamics is a major challenge for conservation biology.
• Understanding how food webs-collapse as natural ecosystems are degraded may provide important insights into how ecosystem services will collapse.
• Many thanks to the MA Scenarios Team for many inspiring discussions.