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The Inside Track03/12/2020

2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Chris Jackson, Vice President

© Ipsos

Vital Statistics - Key Public Opinion Indicators

Impact of the Coronavirus

Perceptions of Donald Trump

Democratic Primary

SUMMARY

2 ‒

© Ipsos

Vital Statistics

3 ‒

American perceptions on big issues

© Ipsos4 ‒

Direction of the Country

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Right DirectionWrong TrackDon’t know

31%

54%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

© Ipsos5 ‒

U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS AT A RECORD HIGH

© Ipsos6 ‒

Reuters/Ipsos Data

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Economy generally

Unemployment/jobs

Healthcare

Terrorism

Immigration

Environment

22%

12%14%

8%

5%6%

Main Problem Facing the Country

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Impact of the Coronavirus

7 ‒

© Ipsos8 ‒

International Views of Coronavirus Outbreak

Ipsos Data

What level of threat do you think the coronavirus poses to the world? (very high + high)

42

42

43

47

49

55

61

66

Canada

Russia

United Kingdom

Germany

France

United States

Australia

Japan

15

33

16

20

16

21

19

15

Canada

Russia

United Kingdom

Germany

France

United States

Australia

Japan

Do you agree or disagree that the coronavirus outbreak has been contained and will soon be over? (total agree)

© Ipsos9 ‒

Reuters/Ipsos Data

American Awareness and Perceptions of Coronavirus

3%

14%

25% 25%28%

4%

No threat -1

2 3 4 Imminentthreat - 5

Not sure

2%

8%

9%

51%

29%Very familiar

Somewhat familiar

Not very familiar

Have heard of it, but that’s about it

Never heard of it

How familiar are you with the coronavirus/COVID-19, if at all?

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being no threat and 5 being an imminent threat, how much of a threat do the following beliefs, movements, trends or phenomena pose to the United States? Coronavirus / COVID-19:

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Reuters/Ipsos Data

Americans are beginning to change their behavior

Have you changed your daily routine in any way specifically because of the coronavirus/COVID-19? Select all that apply

49%

42%

18%

8%6% 5%

2%

I have not altered my daily routine

I am washing my hands or using disinfectant more frequently

I have avoided physical contact with others, such as handshakes

I have recently purchased surgical masks... other items to shield me from the virus

I have canceled or altered upcoming travel plans

I have worked from home

I have kept my children home from school

© Ipsos11 ‒

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Businesses are changing the way they work

How has the coronavirus/COVID-19 impacted your work or business? Select all that apply

30% 26% 23%

6%

Problems with supply chains, such as decreased

availability from usual suppliers

Sales have decreased

Conferences or other meetings have been

cancelled or postponed

Staff shortages due to illness

9%Has the coronavirus/COVID-19 impacted your work or business in any way?

Yes

© Ipsos12 ‒

Americans expect the federal government and health authorities to protect them

Ipsos Data

© Ipsos

71% 68%60% 60%

70%

24%

61% 63%67%69%

58%

41% 41%

56%

24%

56%50% 52%

92%

Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia UK US Vietnam

% Doing a Very Good + Good Job

Feb 14 - 15Feb 28 - 29

Americans perceptions of the government response is declining

How good or poor a job are each of the following doing to contain the spread of the virus?Your Government

N/A

-2 -10 -19 -19 -14 0 -5 -13 -15 N/A

Ipsos Data

Ipsos Data

© Ipsos14 ‒

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Trump’s Approval on Coronavirus

12%

32%

8%

9%

11%

12%

17%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Coronavirus / COVID-19

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Lean towards approve

Lean towards disapprove

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

Don’t know

39% of Americans Approve

© Ipsos

Perceptions of President Trump

15 ‒

© Ipsos

Jan

20-2

4, 2

017

Feb

10-1

4, 2

017

Mar

ch 3

-7, 2

017

Mar

ch 2

4-28

, 201

7

April

21-

25, 2

017

May

12-

16, 2

017

June

2-6

, 201

7

June

21-

27, 2

017

July

14-

18, 2

017

Aug

4-8,

201

7

Aug

25-2

9, 2

017

Sept

15-

19, 2

017

Oct

6-1

0, 2

017

Oct

27-

31, 2

017

Nov

17-

21, 2

017

Dec

8-12

, 201

7

Dec

29, 2

017

- Jan

2, 2

018

Jan

19-2

3, 2

018

Feb

9-13

, 201

8

Mar

ch 2

-6, 2

018

Mar

ch 2

3-27

, 201

8

April

13-

17, 2

018

May

4-8

, 201

8

May

25-

29, 2

018

June

15-

19, 2

018

July

6- 1

0, 2

018

July

27-

31, 2

018

Augu

st 1

5-21

Sept

5-1

1, 2

018

Sept

26-

Oct

2, 2

018

Oct

ober

17-

23, 2

018

Nov

embe

r 14-

20, 2

018

Dece

mbe

r 5-1

1, 2

018

Dece

mbe

r 26,

201

8-…

Janu

ary

16-2

2, 2

019

Febr

uary

6-1

3, 2

019

Mar

ch 6

- 12

, 201

9

Mar

ch 2

6 - A

pril

1, 2

019

April

17-

23, 2

019

May

10-

14, 2

019

May

29-

June

5, 2

019

June

24-

25, 2

019

July

15-

16, 2

019

Augu

st 1

-5, 2

019

Augu

st 2

6-27

, 201

9

Sept

16-

17, 2

019

Oct

7-8

, 201

9

Oct

28-

29, 2

019

Nov

18-

19, 2

019

Dec

9-10

, 201

9

Janu

ary

13-1

4, 2

020

Febr

uary

3-4

, 202

0

16 ‒

Donald Trump’s National Approval Rating

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

Total ApprovalTotal Disapproval

54%

41%

© Ipsos17 ‒

Electoral College Votes

2016 Vote

Margin

Current Trump

Job Approval

Model Trump

Odds in 2020

Pennsylvania 20 44,292 48% 78%

Wisconsin 10 22,748 43% 64%

Michigan 16 10,704 43% 64%

Trump’s Approval Ratings in Key Swing States

Source for Trump Approval By State: Morning Consult – February 2020

© 2020 Ipsos 18

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

Do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Strongly approve

Somewhatapprove

Lean towards approve

Lean towards

disapprove

Somewhat disapprove

Stronglydisapprove

Don’t know

TOTALAPPROVE

TOTALDISAPPROVE

The U.S. economy 23% 12% 12% 10% 10% 25% 8% 47% 45%U.S. foreign policy 17% 12% 12% 8% 10% 32% 10% 41% 50%Healthcare reform 14% 11% 12% 10% 9% 35% 10% 36% 54%

Employment and jobs 24% 13% 14% 11% 9% 22% 7% 51% 42%Dealing with Congress 17% 11% 10% 10% 9% 34% 9% 37% 53%

International trade 19% 12% 11% 9% 11% 28% 10% 42% 48%Taxation 14% 12% 14% 8% 10% 30% 11% 40% 49%

Corruption 14% 12% 10% 10% 9% 35% 10% 35% 54%The environment 13% 11% 11% 12% 8% 37% 8% 35% 57%

Immigration 22% 10% 11% 7% 8% 36% 6% 43% 52%The way he treats people like me 15% 10% 10% 9% 7% 40% 8% 35% 56%

The effort he is making to unify the country 17% 11% 10% 9% 8% 38% 7% 37% 56%Russia 14% 10% 11% 10% 9% 35% 13% 35% 53%

Iran 17% 10% 11% 9% 7% 32% 13% 39% 48%China 17% 10% 12% 10% 9% 30% 12% 39% 49%

Coronavirus/COVID-19 17% 12% 11% 9% 8% 32% 12% 39% 49%

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Trump’s Approval Rating on Key Issues

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Real Clear Politics National Market Average

National General Election Market Averages

51%44%

Biden Trump

50%45%

Sanders Trump

© Ipsos

Democratic Primary

20 ‒

© Ipsos

…And Then There Were Three

© Ipsos22 ‒

Primary Schedule & Remaining Delegates Up for Grabs

Iowa OklahomaNew Hampshire Tennessee

Nevada TexasSouth Carolina Utah

Alabama VermontArkansas VirginiaCalifornia IdahoColorado Michigan

Maine MississippiMassachusetts Missouri

Minnesota North DakotaNorth Carolina Washington

State Delegates

March 17th

Arizona 67

Florida 219

Illinois 155

Ohio 136

March 24th

Georgia 105

March 29th

Puerto Rico 51

State Delegates

April 4th

Alaska 15

Hawaii 24

Louisiana 54

Wyoming 14

April 7th

Wisconsin 14

April 28th

Connecticut 60

Delaware 21

Maryland 96

New York 274

Upcoming March Primaries Upcoming April PrimariesPast Primaries

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Just half of Sanders’ supporters say they would vote for Biden in the general election

You said you would support [CANDIDATE] for the Democratic presidential nomination. In the event [OPPOSING CANDIDATE] wins theDemocratic nomination, which of the following scenarios best describes how you will vote in the November 2020 election for president?

Bernie Sanders Supporters Joe Biden Supporters

51%

8%12%

6%

22%

61%

6% 6%9%

18%

Reuters/Ipsos Data

I will vote for Joe Biden

I will vote for Donald Trump

I will vote for a third partyI will not vote at all if Joe

Biden wins the nomination

Don't know

I will vote for Bernie Sanders

I will vote for Donald Trump

I will vote for a third partyI will not vote at all if Bernie Sanders wins the nomination

Don't know

© Ipsos24 ‒

2020 Democratic Primary Horserace – National Numbers Moderates Coalesce Around Joe Biden Following Super Tuesday

If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, and you had to choose from the list of candidates below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of Democratic registered voters)

29% 32%28% 27% 25% 26% 27%

23% 23%28% 27% 27%

21%15% 17% 18%

45%

54%

17%20%

17% 16%20% 19%

23%20% 22% 23% 21% 21%

21%28% 29% 29%

32% 33%

Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Pete Buttigieg Michael Bloomberg

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Super Tuesday

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

© Ipsos25 ‒

Candidate Comparisons

© Ipsos26 ‒

49%

11% 10%3% 7% 7% 7% 4% 3%

Can beatPresident Trump

in the generalelection

Strong on theeconomy and job

creation

Strong onhealthcare

Someone newand different

Strong on theenvironment

Can unify theDemocratic Party

Strongprogressive

Strong onimmigration

Don’t know

Reuters/Ipsos Poll February 28- March 2, 2020

Ideal Candidate Trait: Ability to Beat Trump

If the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election were held today, which of the following candidate traits would be the MOST important factor for you in deciding who to vote for? (Asked of Democratic registered voters)

27‒

49%

36%41%

38% 38%41%

38% 36%34% 35%

37%34%

26%

17%20% 21%

54% 56%

13% 14%17% 16% 14%

16%17%

14% 21%18% 18% 20%

25%27% 29% 28%

25% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Reuters/Ipsos Data

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Candidate Most Likely to Beat President Trump

For each of the following, select the candidate from the list below you think is best on the particular issue... “Most likely to beat President Trump in the general election” (Asked of Democratic registered voters)

© Ipsos28 ‒

FiveThirtyEight Poll Average

Biden’s overperformance in South Carolina along with moderate drop-outs propelled campaign forward

1%

3%

7%

8%

11%

20%

49%

2%

3%

8%

7%

10%

17%

28%

South Carolina

0%

4%

5%

10%

14%

20%

47%

1%

4%

6%

12%

9%

19%

24%

Nevada

Biden

Sanders

Warren

Buttigieg

Steyer

Klobuchar

Gabbard

Biden

Sanders

Warren

Buttigieg

Steyer

Klobuchar

Gabbard

Public Poll Average Before Caucus / PrimaryActual Vote Share

© Ipsos29 ‒

Source: NPR

Current Delegate Counts – 1,991 needed to secure nominationIA

(2/3

)

NH

(2/1

1)

NV

(2/2

2)

SC (2

/29)

Supe

r Tue

sday

(3/3

)

10-M

ar

17-M

ar

24-M

ar

29-M

ar

4-Ap

r

7-Ap

r

28-A

pr

2-M

ay

5-M

ay

12-M

ay

19-M

ay

2-Ju

n

13-J

ul

Needed to win nomination (1,991)

Sanders (685)

Biden (847)

Democratic National Convention –July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

© Ipsos30 ‒

Biden has +162 delegate lead as of March 10, 2020

5231

41567

249175

11037 64

228

29

16

99

41

24

36

54

12520

36

68

1489

Source: New York Times

Biden SandersIowa 6 12

New Hampshire 0 9Nevada 9 24

South Carolina 39 15Alabama 44 8Arkansas 17 9California 150 186Colorado 12 20

Maine 11 9Mass 37 29

Minnesota 38 27North Carolina 67 37

Okalhoma 21 13Tennessee 33 19

Texas 111 102Utah 4 13

Vermont 5 11Virginia 66 31Idaho 11 9

Michigan 72 52Mississippi 31 2

Missouri 40 23North Dakota 6 8Washington 17 17

Total 847 685

© Ipsos© Ipsos

Ipsos ResourcesPolitical Atlas – Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Partnership www.political-atlas.com

The Point Being – an Ipsos Podcast overview of public opinion trends

Cliff’s Take –Weekly Ipsos Thought Leadership

Reuters/Ipsos Public Opinion Partnership

IpsosGlobalIndicators.com

ipsos.com/en-us/news-and-polls/news

31 ‒

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